Expectations For ACC Teams In 2026: Who Can Contend With Miami? James Franklin’s VT Debut & More!
74 min
•Apr 1, 2026about 2 months agoSummary
The Cover 3 podcast analyzes 2026 ACC football expectations, with Miami heavily favored at 10.5 wins while SMU (8.5) emerges as the next-best contender. The hosts examine new head coaches including James Franklin at Virginia Tech (6.5 wins) and discuss pressure situations for coaches like Mike Norvell at Florida State and Bill Belichick at North Carolina.
Insights
- Miami's dominance creates a massive gap in ACC competitiveness, making their performance against Notre Dame and potential trap games more predictive of playoff viability than conference record alone
- James Franklin's hiring at Virginia Tech is viewed as an upgrade despite realistic year-one expectations, with his track record of beating non-elite teams suggesting 8-4 is achievable despite Vegas projecting 6.5
- SMU's soft October schedule and manageable home slate position them as legitimate ACC title contenders if they win the FSU opener, but Stanford road trip in week 15 remains a historical vulnerability
- Quarterback development is the critical variable for multiple programs: Cal's Jaren Kiyabe, Louisville's Lincoln Keenholz, and North Carolina's upgraded QB situation will determine whether teams exceed conservative win totals
- Schedule logistics matter significantly—Cal's nine-game stretch before bye week and travel patterns, combined with young rosters, create hidden disadvantages that Vegas accounts for but casual observers miss
Trends
Portal-dependent programs (Miami, SMU) face culture retention risks when losing veteran leadership, requiring identified internal leaders like Mark Fletcher to maintain competitive identityNew head coaches in Power 4 conferences face elevated pressure to show immediate improvement, with year-one win totals serving as referendum on hiring decision rather than realistic timelineAcademic restrictions at elite universities (Stanford, Notre Dame) create structural disadvantages in portal competition that require alternative recruiting strategies focused on high school developmentCoaching stability uncertainty impacts athletic department spending decisions—Boston College's basketball hire signals potential resource reallocation that could affect football program investmentYoung rosters with 4:1 freshman-to-senior ratios (North Carolina) require schedule consideration and realistic expectations, but upgraded coordinators can accelerate competency gains year-over-yearConference scheduling creates hidden advantages/disadvantages—teams avoiding Miami, Clemson, or SMU face easier paths, while road trip clustering (Cal's SMU-NC State-UVA stretch) compounds travel fatigueWin total inflation for dominant teams (Miami 10.5 vs Texas Tech 11.5) reflects sportsbook risk management around pushes, not just team quality, creating potential value opportunitiesInterim coaching situations and fan apathy (Florida State) create different pressure dynamics than traditional hot seats, with empty stadiums signaling resignation rather than angerDefensive coordinator pedigree (Tosh Lupoi from Oregon) influences portal recruitment and early-season expectations, with four Oregon defensive transfers suggesting coordinated system implementationSchedule strength disparity within same conference—Louisville avoids Miami/Clemson while Cal plays both, creating 1-2 win differential before team quality factors in
Topics
2026 ACC Football Expectations and Win TotalsMiami Hurricanes National Championship ContentionSMU Mustangs Conference Title ViabilityJames Franklin Virginia Tech Debut SeasonNew Head Coach Pressure and Year-One ExpectationsQuarterback Development and Portal TransfersSchedule Logistics and Travel Impact on PerformanceYoung Roster Management and Freshman IntegrationAcademic Restrictions in Elite University RecruitingDefensive Coordinator Influence on Program BuildingMike Norvell Hot Seat AnalysisBill Belichick North Carolina Rebuild TimelineTosh Lupoi Cal Program TurnaroundPortal Class Rankings and Retention StrategyConference Tiebreaker Implications for Playoff Access
Companies
CBS Sports
Podcast network and media platform hosting Cover 3 college football analysis show
YouTube
Video platform where Cover 3 podcast episodes are distributed and live-streamed
People
Chip Patterson
Co-host analyzing ACC football expectations and coaching hires for 2026 season
Tom Fornelli
Co-host discussing win totals, Louisville Cardinals, and Virginia Tech expectations
Danny Cannell
Co-host covering SMU Mustangs, Cal Bears, and new head coach analysis
Bob Elliott
Co-host analyzing Miami Hurricanes roster turnover and defensive edge rusher losses
Mario Cristobal
Miami football coach whose in-game management improvements are credited with national championship run
James Franklin
New Virginia Tech head coach expected to improve program from 6.5 win projection to 8-4 range
Mark Fletcher
Miami defensive player identified as cultural heartbeat and leadership continuity from program's rebuild
Malachi Tony
Miami defensive player who impressed during playoff practices and provides leadership continuity
Jason Taylor
Miami defensive coach who highlighted young edge rusher development potential beyond departing veterans
Kevin Jennings
SMU quarterback returning from injury, ranked outside top-10 but expected to lead conference contention
Tosh Lupoi
New Cal head coach who secured QB Jaren Kiyabe and upgraded receiver room for 6.5 win projection
Jaren Kiyabe
Cal quarterback secured by new coach Lupoi, expected to lead offensive improvement in ACC
Tavita Pritchard
Stanford head coach facing 3.5 win projection with young roster and academic recruiting constraints
Mike Norvell
Florida State coach under significant pressure with 6.5 win projection and fan apathy concerns
Bill O'Brien
Boston College coach facing 3.5 win projection with potential athletic department resource reallocation
Bill Belichick
North Carolina coach with 4.5 win projection, managing super-young roster with 48 freshmen
Lincoln Keenholz
Louisville quarterback expected to outperform predecessor Miller Moss with better decision-making
Brent Key
Georgia Tech coach with 6.5 win projection, facing fan expectations of higher performance
Dabo Swinney
Clemson coach facing 7.5 win projection with program perceived as declining from national relevance
Quotes
"Mark Fletcher is like still having him, like not even to mention how Malachi Tony kind of impressed everybody with the way he picked it up. But Mark Fletcher has been there from the beginning of the build. He is right there from the backyard. He is the heartbeat."
Chip Patterson•Early segment on Miami culture retention
"Last season they finished their regular season with two road games. And I thought performed well in those two road games. Those are those were spots that kind of got their attention. I wonder if this is the opposite when you're finishing home, home, home, home, you almost you get through that Notre Dame game. You might feel like you can just coast the rest of the way."
Tom Fornelli•Miami schedule analysis
"Virginia tech is going eight and four minimum. Turkey Tom."
Chip Patterson•James Franklin Virginia Tech projection
"I think that Lincoln Keenholz will have better completion percentage and pass their efficiency and touchdown interception ratio than Miller Moss did at Louisville."
Tom Fornelli•Louisville quarterback comparison
"Six and six is unacceptable losses for Clemson football. Keep in mind, two of those road games Friday nights without a buy short week road trips to Cal and to Syracuse."
Chip Patterson•Clemson expectations discussion
Full Transcript
Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Bob Elliott, that's Danny Cannell, I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you live at YouTube.com.com.com. And every Get Your All podcast on demand, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. A-K-A the Cover 3 tailgate where they might be hiding in the group chat. We need to do a forensic investigation because Drew at 837 a.m. Eastern time is bringing private conversations forward. And I'm a little uncomfortable. Drew says, for Tom, is Italy now a certified baseball country? I don't think that's nice. This is, for those who are not aware, there were some final World Cup qualifying matches yesterday. And Italy, could it, is that, did they just need the win against Bosnia? And they did not get the win, losing in penalties. What's, do you want to reveal to the people? I mean, for those who are watching on YouTube.com slash Cover 3 and also have a sharp eye for international kits when it comes to football, they may be aware. You want to announce your affiliation, your rooting interests for the World Cup this summer? Scotland's in the World Cup. I'm half Scottish. There we go. There we go. I'm in. Tom's in. We're going all Italy is a baseball country. Scotland's a soccer country. Did they end up winning the baseball classic? No, they lost. Who won the baseball classic? Venezuela. Okay. Well, how far, but they got to the final four? They got to the, yeah. Okay. Got it. They need to find out, they need to find, oh no, that wasn't Italy. That wasn't Italy. What? I was going to say they need to find an electrician, but that was, well, that was Chet, Chetia. Ah, Chet guy. Yeah. That they pulled out the electrician to come out and through like four and two thirds scoreless innings and struck out Shohei Otani. Well, I mean, you know, Italy, of course, the 2006 World Cup champions, not going to be making the trip over. I thought as a Fiorentina supporter, if Moise Keen has an open summer to be able to make sure he's healthy for the upcoming campaign, Moise Keen could hit an open net. Italy would be in the World Cup right now. You guys might as well be speaking Spanish right now. Me and Bud are just lost. Yo, Kierrow Taco Bell. Yeah, there you go. We'll be speaking ACC here today. That is the number one goal. That is the big topic as you see from the headline on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. Now continuing our series of if Vegas is right now to address some comments from Monday. When are we going to talk about Notre Dame? We will address Notre Dame's win total tomorrow, just to lead off the mailbag, make sure they get their shine as well. Most of the publicly available win totals at the large sports books have not yet hit the full group of six in terms of us being able to break those down, but we will address Notre Dame as part of tomorrow's mailbag. I'll consider it one of many mailbag questions. If you would like to get in on the mailbag, we love when you jump in early, get the conversation started, get those questions in. We see them before the show starts. We'll be able to get to them throughout the show. We will also be taking your questions during the show, but that's just a little heads up. YouTube.com slash cover three. When the link goes live, you can go ahead, jump in the tailgate, start asking your questions. We'll be hitting those as well. Big 10 scheduling, one of the leftover big old bag of mail questions where listeners have given us a five star review and in that review, put a mail bag question. But let's begin as we have with our other conferences. We did the big 10, the SEC, the big 12, now turning our attention to the ACC, where much like the big 12 kind of have one team that is standing all on its own. When the big 10 and the SEC, we can talk about the title contenders, what the win totals say about the battle. Now we've got one team that is way ahead of everyone else. It is the reigning national runner up Miami Hurricanes over under win total at 10 and a half. Now it is not the bananas 11 and a half that Texas Tech had. Miami does have a few more spots where they could trip up along the way. But Elliot, I ask you, you've had to listen to enough soccer. You've had to listen to enough chip. I have. Let's, is that a fair number? Does 10 and a half read right to you? You know, I, given the schedule, I do understand, you know, why they made it this again, like these books don't want to just hold your money and refund you on pushes, right? So like, are they really going to go nine and a half with this schedule? I guess you could and juice it over. That's kind of what I thought they would do. But, you know, 10 and a half juice under, you know, does make some sense. They're clearly spending a ton still. They clearly have a lot of physical talent on this team. I do have a little bit of a worry about losing, you know, a bane and Maui Noah, like, like those, were just guys who like they were there while they built it, right? They understood kind of what it was before they made it what it is, or at least what it was last year, right? Like they were there for 23 and 24 as well. So I understand that. I do think Mensa is really good. And I think that, like they paid up for him. Like, I think that's probably a good move by them. It's just, there's a lot of turnover on this team. And we don't know exactly like how some of those young guys are going to step into the role. And they also did a pretty nice job in the portal, obviously, but they will need some of these former four and five stars to move up and actually like take roles. And I think the law of averages says that that's going to happen. It'd be kind of shocking if it didn't. But like, what's those guys leadership like? Are they all kind of, you know, doing the same, like last year's team kind of felt like team on a mission in the second half of the year. Can I jump in real quick and address that? Yeah. Because I think there's an answer. It's two words and it's Mark Fletcher. I mean, from like, I mean, just to spend any time around Mark Fletcher, talk to anybody else around that program. Mark Fletcher is like still having him, like not even to mention how Malachi Tony kind of impressed everybody with the way he picked it up. But Mark Fletcher has been there from the beginning of the build. He is right there from the backyard. He is the heartbeat. Like that, that is the guy who Mario Cristobal can count on to be Mario Cristobal's voice when it comes to the culture and building that thing out. Remember the story that Mario told about how Mark Fletcher had to put some of the early enrollees in their place during those playoff practices? Like the early enrollees show up, they get to practice with the team while Miami's going on the run. And yeah, I mean, they're, they're high recruits. They might have thought it was one way. Mark Fletcher had to tell him it was another. I think that, uh, that's one place at least where my mind goes where I'm not too worried about the drop off in culture, because we've got a couple of guys and Mark Fletcher is the first one that comes to mind, that I think we'll be able to continue that through line. All right. I think the losing the two edge rushers is probably the biggest concern. You feel like the offense is pretty good hands. You went out and got yourself a quarterback. You mentioned, uh, Fletcher coming back, Tony, this guy's coming off the edge, wreaked havoc. I will say though, uh, when I talked to Jason Taylor, I asked him, this was before the national championship game we were doing at media day. I asked him, I was like, what's it like, you know, coaching these two guys, you know, they're so special. And he was pretty quick to point out. Now this is a good coach. Like he's pretty smart guy. Yeah. He's like, it's not just these two. He's like, where do you see some of these young guys? Where do you see what they can do? So I do think they've done a pretty good job of a cupboard that is pretty, pretty well stocked. Now, do they match that production is another thing, but I think they'll be okay. And then there is a pretty big gap between them and everybody else in the ACC. So it's kind of like, I think that's where this number makes sense. Whoa. Damn it. We talked about it with Texas Tech on Monday. Like there's such a gap. You look at the title odds. There's a huge gap between Miami and the rest of this league and based on those. And I mean, if, if they finish under, it's going to feel like a very disappointing season. Even if you're 10 and two, you're probably, well, you'll probably win the league and you'll probably, or you'll get to the ACC championship. You'll be in the playoff hunt. But like if this Miami team doesn't dominate this version of the ACC, how confident are you going to be in them going into the playoff? I think the, the presence of the Notre Dame game is going to give me a little bit of wiggle room where if they, if they beat Notre Dame, but lose, how about this? If the Miami Hurricanes beat Notre Dame in South Bend, but lose to ACC games, Tom, I am concerned, even though they've got the Notre Dame win. But if they were to lose to Notre Dame and just get tripped up once in conference play, I think that's where eight and zero and seven and one is going to be more sort of like an indicator to me about them being about that life, I guess. Yeah. Like, where's their trap game here? At Wake Forest? No, no, no, at North Carolina a week before the Notre Dame game. I mean, that feels like it. Maybe there's a letdown for Duke after the Notre Dame game. I'll remind you guys, the Wake Forest was a nine win team last year and you guys are like, no chance, no chance. You know, I, I thought about this kind of stuff this morning when I was going over this, right? Like Clemson and Notre Dame are not trap games, they're like the obvious you're getting up for a game, you know, maybe, maybe Pitt, just like with the way that Pitt plays, you know, it's, it's coming off FSU at home. It's before two road games, like there's not a bi-week, you know, baked into there. I would say Virginia Tech on short rest, you know, at home. But the thing is they had a scare two years ago with Cam Ward at home on a Friday night against the Hokies. Like it's not that hard for Cristobal to be like, hey, yo, look, this team has athletes, this team is pretty good. Like if you guys don't show up, this is how we get derailed. You know, like they should roll BC. I do think losing Mence is a huge deal for Duke. Like I'm not really concerned about that one. And like they have such a soft schedule to start in September to incorporate all these new parts. I think it's Virginia Tech. That's my fast Friday night. Quick turnaround. You're probably sitting in the top 10 nationally. You're looking at being favored by two touchdowns at home, Boston College after that. I mean, it's last season, they finished their regular season with two road games. And I thought performed well in those two road games. Those are those were spots that kind of got their attention. I wonder if this is the opposite when you're finishing home, home, home, home, you almost you get through that Notre Dame game. You might feel like you can just coast the rest of the way. Don't even have to leave your apartment for the most part. I think that that'd be the one I'd be nervous about. Obviously, we'll see where Virginia Tech is at at that point in the season. But as we're sitting here on April 1, that's a, yeah, I mean, if James Franklin has a team that is pretty good, I could see him being able to get that group ready to go. I mean, depends on if Miami's in the top five. Okay, if Miami's in the top five, James Franklin doesn't have his chance. But you know, if it's elsewhere, we'll see. Taking a shot. We'll see. Hey, that's the best thing about James Franklin being in the ACC. You know, you don't have that many games against top five opponents. It'll be great. You found the one weakness and you've eliminated it. It was a smart decision through and through. Are we at the point though? Like, I think the point of this too, are we at the point where we trust Miami? They've had back to back 10 win seasons. They're just coming off national championship. Do we just trust them to roll through here? I think they're getting at that level of respect. I trust them, Moria. Yeah. I trust them more. And this is a great note here from Sean or question that might follow with that trust. Has Mario calmed the talk about his lack of in-game management with a trip to the national championship? I think certainly some, right? I mean, we thought his time out against A&M was pretty sketch, but for the rest of the year, it was pretty good. There was one thing in the natty, but it wasn't like one of those like, oh my God, we're going to talk about this a ton tomorrow type things. And I think like the, there are tremendous games we made just by cleaning up the really dumb stuff. And I think he has done that at least somewhat. Most of the really bad stuff was what, 23 and 24. Yeah. I think we're enough removed from the big WTF moments. And then, you know, proof is in the results. Danny, you in 10 games and back to back seasons, you go toe to toe with Texas A&M and Texas A&M. You go toe to toe with Ryan Day in Ohio State. You know, you win those, those epic games. I mean, how many tough decisions had to be made in the win against Ole Miss and the semifinals? That was an intense close game with lots of opportunities to bungle it. So yes, Sean, my, if you want to hold out in your own personal ratings or rankings, but when we do our coach rankings in May, Mario Cristobal will be moving up because one of the things that had me reconsidering, because he's obviously got the development and he's obviously got the recruiting, but one of the last pieces of the puzzle for me to look at him as one of the top coaches in the sport was some of the in-game management stuff. And I think a lot of that has been calmed. So I imagine he'll be soaring on my ballot. I bet he moves up in the coach rankings as well. What about their top competition? The SMU Mustangs have an over-underwent total of eight and a half. Danny, does that, we got Kevin Jennings back? Yeah, just outside the top 10, maybe 11 or 12 in top 10 quarterbacks, as Rhett Lashley did not like my list. And he told me so. He did not like my top 10 quarterbacks with no Kevin Jennings on it, but I do think, yeah, yeah, the one we just did. Yeah. He got you on the radio. None of us had Jennings in, right? Or did Tom? No, none of us had him in there, but I did. I, I had him in there. And then I think I told you guys in the show, I left off two names and I was like, Oh crap. I lay like blaringly obvious top 10 quarterbacks. He's really good. And I think we're almost to the point where you have to trust kind of like we're talking about Miami. And I think the wind total is pretty accurate. Like they're going to be around eight or nine wins. And if they get hot and kind of things work out, see them challenging Miami for an ACC championship. That opening game is huge. Like you, you got to go win that one in Tallahassee. And if you get that, you know, they're favored in what all remaining conference games, except for the game at Louisville. I think your odds of getting into September is a wild fast start for SMU. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like we're going to know about SMU pretty early, you know, and I granted like injuries and other stuff can, can affect it down the stretch, but man, they have a soft schedule in October. I mean, they go Boston college, UVA, Cal, Syracuse. And then they also get Wake and Stanford in the back half. And Wake was, you know, better than we thought last year. Like, and also pretty lucky in terms of like close game score stuff. So, you know, like, I, yeah, I think they have a really nice road, you know, to Charlotte. Is it Charlotte this year? Is it Tampa? I thought we were in Charlotte for at least another month. Okay. Yeah. Like they have a really nice road to Charlotte if they can take care of September. It's a very manageable home slate. Like look at that. You see Davis, Missouri State, BC, Virginia, Cal, BT and Wake at home. Like you should be going undefeated at home this year. And there are seven wins right there. So Louisville on the road will be tough. Florida State to open the season on the road we've learned can be tough for teams. Notre Dame's on the road, like Stanford on the road at the end of the year, the environment's probably not going to be great. So that's nothing, but like Syracuse road trips are always difficult for teams. But like this is a team that with that schedule and what they have coming back, they should be competing at the top. So it's like, if we're looking at it for what the expectations are, if they're not over this at the end of the year, it was a bad year for SMU. With a better in quarterback coming back too. You know, but he was banged up last year. I think his health is something to keep an eye on. You know, and I was, I was wrong in SMU because I thought it would take him a little bit of time. I thought they would be very competitive in the ACC, but I thought it would take some time. That's where I was wrong. They stepped right in the league and have not blinked, have been right at the top. Two things stand out here. Number one would be, you know, we always say like, what does this say about this team? What does it say about the league that SMU is at eight and a half? And that's our next best competition. I mean, they're, what are they a touchdown to Miami? On the rate, I got, I haven't, they also have, they have the Irish game, which is going to add another, but I mean, that's so does my engine. At Notre Dame, if you were just doing like aggregate wins here, like if you're getting to eight and a half, you're only getting like 0.2 or 0.25 at the Irish. You know, they're, they're other non-con, like, so they're, their expectation of the non-con is like 2.25. So their expectation in conference then is, is, you know, remove that. It's probably like six and a quarter to get to that eight and a half. But just let you in his brain. You guys are all broken. I mean, that's not exactly how this works, but it's like, it's probably the best audio format friendly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, implied probabilities, convertible. Cause you see Davis in Missouri state, like, UC is pretty much a hundred Missouri, like they're an FBS program, but That's 1.0 in the way that you're talking right now. Right. Yeah. We also got a peek into the mind of Chip where he was very impressed by basic math. Yes. 100%? How long it's been since I've taken a math class? 20 years. So the other piece of this is there's a lot of yada yadding about that last game at Stanford, as if SMU did not crap its pants at Cal in the last week of the regular season last year that, I mean, what, what the hell ACC office? You're going to send the same team back to the Bay Area when odds are likely they are once again sitting on the doorstep of making the ACC championship game. I mean, would they go down like 17 points in the first half end up losing by three? I mean, that was just a, it was the epitome and listen, Rhett, clearly you're a big fan of the Cover Three podcast. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you so much for listening. I know that you're not taking that lightly. You are not going to yada yada after the scars of what happened last season because it might be possible that for SMU to accomplish what it wants to accomplish, which is competing for an ACC championship and trying to go make the college football playoff at the second time in three years, that you are going to need every bit of your focus to go get it done against Tavita Prichard and the Stanford Cardinal there in the last week of the season. Anything else on the on the ponies? Yep, bud. Do you have to go seven and two to make it, you think? Or do you think six and three with tiebreakers in this league gets you in? Six and three can get you in. Yeah. I would seven to two probably definitely gets you in. Depending on seven. Yeah, I think seven and two is pretty likely to get you in. Because SMU and Louisville, and we're going to get to the Cardinals here in just a little bit, because they're playing each other, that feels super significant for tiebreakers. Yes. Oh, 1 million percent. And they also don't play Clemson. If it's SMU and another team, and they have to go to the conference. Now, granted, do we have the ACC tiebreakers yet? They will probably see those this summer. They haven't announced those, right? No, I will get them at media days, I think. But like combined opponent winning percentage is pretty much a tiebreaker in every league to some extent. So if it got to that, I think they would be in trouble. This is a pretty soft schedule overall in the conference. No Miami, no Clemson. They might like they might have to go seven and two. I don't think I like their odds of doing well at six and three in the league. The good news is if you do lose in Tallahassee history says a loss in Tallahassee week one means you go to the college football playoff. Is this facts? So, you know, you might want to think about that, Rhett. All right, let's before we hit a break, let's keep it going to some of these teams at the top. Then we will hit a break, get into the new head coaches, the Louisville Cardinals at seven and a half. We talked a little bit about Lincoln Keenholz and how much trust you're willing to give a Jeff Brom quarterback. You know, Jeff Brom has a type. He's got a type. He's got him. He's got Lincoln Keenholz. And that type usually is successful, right? Jeff Brom does a good job of maximizing usually his quarterback play, but there's a lot of turnover there. And the Cardinals last year within the conference, a few head scratchers, you know, this was a team that I think we were counting on usually to be right up there in the old format, eight games, you know, like a six and two, maybe a seven and one and four and four in conference play. So while they had some big wins, they had some really disappointing losses. The non-conference includes one of the biggest games of week one that would be against Ole Miss. Tom, as you're, as you're looking at Louisville, what does seven and a half tell you about the Cardinals in 2026? Little, little tempered, aren't they? Like the expectations, considering the schedule, considering what Louisville has done. Like this is a team that won nine games last year. I know they have a new QB. They've got new guys coming back, but just based on where they typically are, I don't know. It's, it's, I feel like if you go seven and five, don't you have to be like, if you're a Louisville fan and you go seven and five, you consider that a good year based on what you think should be happening. I mean, I know you get Ole Miss at the start, tough game. You finish on the road at Kentucky. So two of your non-cons are SEC games. That's always, you know, difficult to do for anybody, but you look in the ACC, there's no Miami. There's no Virginia Tech. Like this is a schedule. I feel like you should be able to take advantage of. No Clemson. Oh yeah, but they're dead. Usually that, well, no, usually that's good for Louisville. Yeah. Yeah. Louisville's kind of got Clemson's number. I think seven and a half is a bearish number, Tom. I'm kind of with you. Not that I am confident to run here and say over. Our picks will come later in the summer, but I like the way you put that. If I'm a Louisville fan, if I'm a Louisville booster, if I'm working for Louisville, seven and five football season, given the way that we are investing in the kind of standard we're trying to set in, this is a, this is a program that's won 28 games in the last three years. So I don't know. I mean, it's yeah. Like the, the non-con, you know, Ole Miss, they're opening dogs, right? You know, they have what? Kentucky, which should be much improved. You still, you're only getting four conference road games, not five, which I, I think they probably figured this out. Okay. Like if they're going to have to play Kentucky on the road, we don't also want to give them five road games because then that's going to give them six home. So, I mean, a couple of those trips could be tricky. Like admins state is not a layup. You know, hosting Florida state, I don't think that's good, but like, they're probably not worse than the league. So, you know, I guess like they don't have as many layups on this schedule as others do. And I think like the lack of layups adds up fast. Like if you swapped their schedule with SMUs, or the numbers swapped as well. Like they could move to eight and a half and, and Louisville would be at seven and a half. Yeah. Or else Louisville at eight and a half, but I hear you. Yes. Sorry. Another bonus to the schedule chip to touch on what you talked about earlier. No West Coast trip. You don't have to go play Cal. You don't have to go play Stanford. So travel wise, the furthest they're going is what? New York? Yeah. That's a good point. I mean, everything is pretty local. Your personnel wise reminder, Isaac Brown back. He was banged up a lot this year after a really strong debut back in 2024. Maybe a full season of health could be able to get him a little bit more explosive. Wide receiver rooms kind of retooled. Curious to see what we're going to get there. And then defensively, you, you want to make sure that you've got a group that's going to be able to have the same kind of like disruption, same kind of havoc, even though they've lost a couple of those key pieces there. Anything else on the card stand out? I do think they are in that group that if Miami comes back to earth some, like they're in the group that okay, if mine becomes back or some, then this next group, if they play to the, like the top of their ceiling is capable of winning this thing. And when I said Louisville had Clemson's number, I think that's still just memories of them sending everyone to the exits before the start of the fourth quarter in this show. Yeah, they should beat them last year. If they had a kicker, they would be the last year. Chris in the chat is right. I mean, Louisville is one in seven all the time against Clemson, but I feel like they have played them tough. Was it 24 that they went in the death valley and beat them? Yeah. Like manhandling their ass. Yeah. And again, last year, they had two on sprinkles. Didn't last year they have two game winning kicks they missed. Yes. Two that were like not that hard. They bungled that game and they also bungled the cow game at home. Another one. They also bungled a Stanford game two years ago out there. A lot of bungling going on. Bungling brah. Depth of the league. Come on. It's a deep. Get your crap together cards. Like so much. This is dependent on QB. Oh yeah. You know, they'll probably go as he goes somewhat. I'm confident in brahm to manage around a guy who is just okay, but like just okay is not going to like get you to where you want to go. Let's all go in the record right now. Who's better? Miller, Moss or Lincoln? Production wise. So that's what we need. We need to predict based on this season. I need to know who you think is better right now. Lincoln. Lincoln. It's a guess. Come on. Shit. I want to say a prediction. I think that Lincoln Keenholz will have better completion percentage and pass their efficiency and touchdown interception ratio than Miller Moss did at Louisville. So you think he's better? Yes. I don't know what you're saying. I think he will be. I think he'll get you significantly more production from the quarterback position. Yeah. I think he won't make the same dumb mistakes. That's gonna make a big difference. That's kind of where I was. Like is he a more talented individual on air right now? Throw him out on an empty field doing drills? I don't know. But do I think he will have a better season? Yes. I do. So it's because it's ultimately unproven. All right. It's pod. Coming up on the other side, we take a look at the new head coaches. We've already got one James Franklin mentioned. What about his debut season in Blacksburg plus Tosh Lupoy, Tavita Pritchard. And then the coaches under pressure and more next. All right. Look, we are actively working to address the camera zoom issue. We have downloaded Logitune. We have downloaded G-Hub. Yeah. It's not. I think at this point we are probably on to just buy another webcam. Like satellite view is not really what we're going for. We're aware of the situation. It's being triaged. All right. Listen, you brought it up. There is one thing you have not tried. And I say this with love. Moving closer. Getting out of that very comfortable seat and just moving closer to the camera. Problem is just sitting relaxed in a lounger. You know, we're doing it wrong. Maybe he's doing it right. Okay. Now I'm closer. Is that better? Oh yeah. All right. We're not sitting back in the cut so bad. Okay. It's one of those like user error type things like, well, one way to make yourself bigger is to move closer to the camera. Like I've been in a hotel room kind of like, like squatting down for an HQ hit with my laptop, you know, trying to fill it up. So you can work on it. All right. Let's get into those first year head coaches. James Franklin, a lot of excitement in Blacksburg and then a win total that I think is, I would not say sobering, but I would say a realistic clear-eyed view of what we should expect right away in year one. And that is really what if Vegas is right is all about. Danny, you see six and a half for the Hokies, a non-conference schedule that's pretty manageable too. I'll say my thoughts here. Like, what's your thought on what this number is telling us about where Virginia Tech stands in the ACC? Way below expectations is where Vegas sits on this one. I think Virginia Tech is going to be, I think they're going to gain some steam at media days and James Franklin's out there playing that role of statesman that he does so well selling the Hokies. I think they're going to be better than this, but Vegas usually knows. You know, and maybe it then maybe it's all right, given another year, you know, takes a little time to get the right roster in there to get the right people, buy the right players. But I would say this is, if it's, it's hard to say seven wins is a bad year, but it's going to, it's going to be a little bit of a, the honeymoon is over type of reaction, I think. I'm driving the Turkey train. All right, let's go. We're starting five and L like so. We should be able to get past this win total, but VMI, old dominion, Maryland, BC, and then pit it home. We got that. We got that. Now we're going on the road to play Cal. That's probably where we're going to lose our first game Georgia Tech. I mean, we don't know. Like Haynes is gone, Philo is gone, Buster is gone. We got to see what the yellow jackets look like, but they got to come to us. Clemson on the road, not easy. SMU on the road, not easy. Stanford at home, give me. That's, that's just W right there. Miami on the road, tough Virginia at home rivalry game. That's another W. We're going to eight and four at worst. I think that's the expectation from almost every Virginia tech fan. So like if you go below that, and man, if you're six and six, then it's like, what do we do? Yeah. I, Danny, I was just thinking this number is way too close to five and seven James Franklin going five and seven would be a like total depression disaster. What did we just do? I've made a huge mistake type situation. I'll push back a little bit. Like I do think he's going to improve them and improve them quickly. I'm not totally sold that at Maryland is a lock. Maryland is a very up and down team. They have a lot of young talent. You know, tech is going to be a very new team. Now granted, a lot of it played together at prior stops. Like I don't know, like are they really a lock over pit at home? Hell yeah. I don't, I don't know, man. Maybe, but I don't think that's, that's lock. Like I look at the schedule. VMI should be a lock. Old, old Dom should be a lock. I kind of think Boston college should be a lock, but it is on the road, but I'll go ahead and give it to him. Like at Cal is not a lock at all. Like they could be a dog there. I don't really know what to think of Georgia tech. I do think losing hangs King is a big deal. And I know they really believed in the backup who's now at Florida. So you know, there's some QB questions there, but no, there's not Alberto. But like, okay, even if he's just okay, I don't think like, like it's really in the DNA for Brent Keyteams just roll over and like, okay, party's over. It could be, but we haven't, nothing I've seen from that program so far, at least we believe that's going to be the case. Stanford at home should be a lock, but like your dogs at Clemson, your dogs at SMU, your dogs at Miami, you're kind of coinfully big against UVA. They have any weird bi-week stuff here? I'll tell you what they do. They've been at first eight games with that one. If you want to get into some vibes-y stuff, number one, playing Georgia tech on the return from Berkeley sucks. Yeah. That's just a, that's not fun. Playing Georgia tech is never fun, but that's, that's a tough opponent to draw in that spot. And if you want to talk about the, the vibes and history and all of things of that nature, Old Dominion, long history of being a thorn in the side of Virginia tech, James Franklin has a history with Maryland. Yeah. But Tom, is he, is that a look ahead? Is he going to be so, is he going to already be thinking about his return to college park and then he's going to end up getting nabbed by Ricky Ronnie and the Monarchs who might have lost, who might have lost all their offensive production out the door to the transfer portal, but still could be a little feisty. I know we have like attention spans at only last 20 minutes. Last year is having way too much of an impact on how people view James Franklin. The problem James Franklin always had at Penn State was that he couldn't beat Ohio State and Michigan and all those guys. He beat the hell out of everybody else. This is a schedule full of everybody else until he gets to Miami. Like these are all games that he's very likely to be in contention and win. Maryland, they're going to like beat the piss out of like he hates Maryland for what, you know, he was supposed to be the head coach there. Remember didn't get it left for Vanderbilt. This man went to Vanderbilt and won football games. He had a bad season last year. Virginia tech is going eight and four minimum. Oh, love that. No, no, I would lean towards that. I'm not on off them quite as bullish as you are, but I would lean towards that too. Turkey Tom. So we've ACC will not be going on at the same time as big 10 this year. So here's, here's my bold prediction. We'll do a bold predictions episode obviously coming up in the next several weeks. Bold prediction. Danny goes to ACC media days, talks to James Franklin, comes back glowing. The upgrade in Danny's mind. I mean, that's the bump, right? I'm guilty of it too. I talked to a coach, makes me feel good. I walk away. I'm like, let's go. I mean, I fell for that trap last year though. I did. I did go all in on Penn State to win the Natty. Hey, James, what's up? Do you remember that? Yeah. We had a great interview last year. What happened? Why do you look bad? Yeah. The anything else on the, the Hokies. Oh, what? Just personnel wise, if you were to make a prediction, how do you think the quarterback battle ends up? Gruckermire? Gruckermire overlooked decent season last year. Difficult position. Thought it was pretty good. Doesn't get talked about a lot. Is that fair? Yeah. He had the same pretty much and slightly better numbers than Allard did. And then who's our other competition there? Bryce Baker. Yeah. I'm going to say Gruckermire. All right. Also, let's head out to the Bay Area where both Cal and Stanford do have new head coaches. Tasha Lupoi comes over after a successful stint as a defensive coordinator at Oregon. He, as we detailed extensively here on the Cover 3 podcast, did the most important thing that you could do the moment he got hired. He flew to Hawaii and he locked down Jaren Kiyabe, Saigapah, Otelli, making sure that the very, very gifted quarterback was going to be on board. Then he did the next best thing you could do, which is reload a wide receiver room that was among the leaders in the ACC and drop percentage last year. So we've got our quarterback in place. We think we have added some upgrades in terms of the wide receiver room. Now, there is the defensive side of the ball that you've got to look at as well. And just sort of the Cal existence in the ACC, which is always a little bit interesting. So the wind total here is six and a half, which means that Bowl is the expectation for year one of the Tasha Lupoi era. But do you agree with that one? I mean, I definitely think Cal has higher hopes internally than just going to a bowl. I think they really have some nice receivers. I think JKS is awesome. The schedule is, I think, pretty manageable. I mean, they open with UCLA. That's a game that I think I favor Cal in. At Syracuse, I don't think, like I was very, hey, Syracuse is kind of smoking mirrors in 24 when they were running out to that crazy good record. I don't think they're quite as bad as they showed last year. I think a lot of that was quarterback injury and some unfortunate circumstances. So they're probably somewhere in the middle. That's not an easy road trip, but I think that's one Cal has to feel pretty good about going and getting, but I'm sure Syracuse probably looks at it and says, hey, week two in our place, they got to fly east. We got a good shot there. You get Clemson on a Friday night at home, okay, at UNLV. I don't think they're so good that that can't be a loseable game, but ultimately it is a game they expect to win. You get tech at home. The back half with these back-to-back roadies, they do have the bye week between NC State and UVA, but for our listeners at home who don't have this on screen, you know, at SMU at NC State at UVA, like if you go one and two there, I think you're probably still hitting your goals. You got to win the big game against Stanford and then, you know, pit it home. Like this feels pretty manageable if this offense is just rocking and rolling. And if it's not, then, you know, this certainly maybe six and a half feels optimistic. Man, I think you better go over six and a half. I mean, you've had six wins last three years with Justin Wilcox. You know, you've pushed him aside. You put a lot of money into your quarterback. You know, you're going to upgrade the coach. I think that puts some pressure on Tosh Lupoy to deliver and over here. They've got the second best. Then the rankings, they have the second best in the ACC portal class. He is bringing four defenders with him from Oregon. Got to feel like that's pretty good. You know, you pick some, select some guys that you like that you would think would be able to help you out in the ACC. So I think, I think you kind of expect to be over this. I'm wary of the CalGurrhythm. I got very mad at us last year for taking the under. I think it was what, five and a half? And then they really proved us wrong by winning seven games. But, but you mentioned the schedule. It's like, they only have one road game in the Pacific Time Zone, UNLV. Like they have to go to Syracuse. They have to go to Dallas. They have to go to Raleigh. They have to go to Charlottesville. And you mentioned those three in a row. What you didn't mention is that first one against SMU on the road, that's a Friday night after playing Wake at home on Saturday. Then your game the next week at NC State, another Friday night game. So you do get the extra day because you played the Friday before, but it's still a quote unquote, weeknight short week game on the road, flying across the country both times. You come home for your buy, then you're flying back across the country to play Virginia again. JKS, I get why we're all very high on him. He has a great arm. You made some great throws. He's also had some bumps last year that you expect from a freshman. His Whopsy Daisy rate ranked 84th out of what, 118 qualified quarterbacks last year. So does he take better care of the football? Because this is not a team that when I look at it, that can afford to be loose. Like they have to, if they make mistakes, they will pay for it. And we saw that happen at times last year. So for them to get back to seven and five or eight and four, even with this schedule, we need to see steps forward at the quarterback position. We need to see steps forward everywhere. Like Tash Lupoy has done a very good job getting started with the recruiting and everything. Like there's reasons to be optimistic about this program two years from now. I think this season could still be in that kind of set. It could be very similar to last year. And that road slate, I know they're not playing team wise. They're not playing the greatest teams, but just the way that it works out and the scheduling logistics, it's tough. We just, that's the, so there's three competent football programs, Tom. You said that it's not the toughest. Well, they're not Miami. They're not Virginia Tech. They're not Clemson on the road. They're not, you know, they don't have Notre Dame. They don't have those teams. Not saying they stink. I'm just saying that's tough. Those three teams and in that order with that travel, like Bud mentioned one and two, like, yeah, I think you're probably going one and two in that stretch. I think they go one and three. I think they could go one and four in road games and still have a good quality team. I think you could get tripped up at UNLV. I think that you've got that little, and how about this one? I mean, do my eyes deceive me or is that nine games before a bye week? Nine. That's what the chat Garrett was all over that too. Nine straight. That's a brutal stretch. And that ninth game is on a Friday night flying across, you know, not across the country, but short week flying down to Dallas from Berkeley. That's your second shortest road trip. Yeah. And then the UNLV is between Clemson and Virginia Tech. I think it's a really tough schedule. Going over here would be a very successful season. I think so, for sure. So the number seems to be bullish on the quarterback. Sounds like a couple of us are bullish on the quarterback as well. How bullish are we feeling about to beat a Pritchard? Year one was Stanford. Three and a half is the wind total. No clue. Yeah. I really looking forward to talking to Jackson Moore here. Obviously, when we get a chance to, but I don't know what to think. I don't think they're as bad as they were last year, but man, I don't, we're penciling them as an auto win on most of these for a reason. It's just, are they, I know they've talked about doing a little more with NIL, but they're just so far behind. Yeah. And it looks like they're not really doing that much outside of the rev share, which again, at Stanford, you're probably not dedicating as much as other schools are to football. Probably a little bit more dedicated to some of the other sports, you know, evenly distributing it out there. I just wonder if they're, you know, barring a significant donation from some Stanford alum. I think this is probably where they're going to be for the foreseeable future unless they change something dramatically with their approach. I mean, look at the road slate. Like, okay, Duke and Wake. Okay, maybe, but you've got to play Notre Dame on the road. You've got to go on the road for Louisville. You've got to go on the road for tech. You're on the road for your rivalry game against Cal. You get Miami early in the season. It's at home, but it's still freaking Miami. Like this is, we've seen a lot of kind of manageable schedules so far as we've been going through this exercise. This is not a manageable schedule, not just because it's Stanford. This is a tough schedule for what you're looking for in the ACC. Like you don't have Clemson, but you've got everybody else and Notre Dame. They just better watch out October 17th. That's not coming to town. Watch out. They had Duke there through three quarters last year. True. Oh my gosh. So help me with this one. And I'll throw it, I guess, Bud's way. But if anybody's got an answer, does Stanford still deal with some of the same calendar and academic issues that prevent heavy transfer portal influx of talent? And if I have been picking up on it correctly, there might almost be an acknowledgement there where whether it is the investment, whether it is the resources, this is going to be a multiple year build where they're going to try to do it by identifying good recruits out of high school and kind of build a younger group up. My notes on Stanford is that this will be a young team that will make some young team mistakes and be dealing with some difficulties of playing the 22 year olds that still exist out there. But because they only got six players out of the portal. And for a first year head coach, they lost players out of the portal. I mean, the plus minus there is a big minus. Is that the big program approach for Stanford to just go young and try to build it up? I think that they are trying to do that way. I haven't heard much about like additional changes. I know they were trying to get a lot of that stuff changed as far as the entrance requirements. For the listeners who don't remember, one of their things was they had a real hard time for a while getting their own undergrad students accepted into grad school. So they were losing out on those quality like fifth year opportunities for their guys who were more veteran. And so the team was staying kind of younger than they wanted it to. They were saying they were getting that fixed. I don't know. Like, do we see that getting fixed? But is it the academic requirements of Stanford that keep them from even being able to get a junior or like a regular, a sophomore or a junior who might want to go and play for Tavita Pritchard? You don't have the grades. If you don't have everything pulled together, you're just not going to be able to get in. There's definitely some of that. I mean, but they're not the only school that deals with that, right? Like some schools like, hey, too many of these credits are not going to transfer to us, right? So that's a problem. But that's not solely a Stanford problem. The not getting your own kids into grad school that was the only place I had heard that was having trouble with that. Like to me, that stood out as unique for the cards, not, you know, not the other stuff as much. Misconceptions. There's like places that are hard to get into. There are places where it's hard to stay eligible because they take academic seriously. Sometimes those two things can be different. Stanford by my read is both, you know, that you have to be ready to go to school school. And also it's probably a little difficult to get in. You mentioned there's six players in the class, three of them are FCS, including two from the Ivy League. And then the other three are UCLA, Michigan and Washington. So they're clearly are still some academic restrictions. I'm with they can do transfer. And if you're good luck trying to go young and develop them, because if you get a player who's good for a year or two, he gets an offer from Texas tech like David Bailey did and he's gone. Because they're not, they can't match anybody. Well, that's where I would hope that Stanford and the idea that Stanford should have Reese, like there's always money in the banana stand. I mean, like you should, I don't think they care. Does the player have an app that he's working on? Because if he doesn't, he's probably not getting it. Like that's, that's kind of where my thought is, is that if, if I was sitting there and Andrew Luck was pitching me on the five year plan for Stanford, and they were saying, look, we're going to try to recruit the same players that Duke is recruiting. We're going to try to recruit the same players Notre Dame is recruiting. Like we're going to try to go identify those kinds of guys, win those recruiting wars, use our rev share, our NIL, our resources to get them, then retain them and continue to re up and continue to be able to, because that seems like way more of something that you can manage than LSU taking the war chest into the portal and just letting the money gun fly. Like that's just not something that is functional for the Cardinal. Notre Dame is probably a little more relaxed on their athlete requirements. History would say so, but who, I mean, that's what Vanderbilt did. Vanderbilt started to say, you know what, we can't win without taking a few exceptions. And one was one of their best players that's had one of the biggest, biggest turnarounds in the program history with Diego Pavia. He wasn't a straight A student. Maybe a couple of Bs in there. I don't know. That's not fair to Diego. No, it's not fair to Diego. I apologize. I apologize. He might have been, who knows? Sorry, Barton. Let me know. I owe you one. Anything else here on the Cardinal? Obviously, just a, it feels like there's bigger questions than there are here, because as Bud mentioned, you're going through a conference where it's hard to separate teams from each other. What did I call it? What did I call it? Danny, I called it a turkey sandwich or something. Yeah, it's just like a ham sandwich. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. There's a lot of teams that are like, sure. Yeah, that's fine. It'll feed you. But then there's a very few teams at the top and very few teams at the bottom. Unfortunately for the Cardinal from on paper, it does look like they are a team that you can sort to the bottom. Coming up on the other side, what does a wind total of six and a half say about the pressure on Mike Norvell and is there pressure on former NFL coaches like Bill O'Brien and Bill Belichick as they face wind totals that say they're not close to the postseason? All that and more. Next. Back here on the Cover Three podcast, another big piece of the if Vegas is right is taking a look at coaches under pressure and what the wind total might say about the expectations going into the season. Now, there has been a lot of minutes discussing Mike Norvell and his status and pressure within the Florida State community. We have our two nobles here. It's a discussion that has been going on since last October. So I apologize that we're circling back here, but we have to be thorough. We are committed to our process, if nothing else. And so six and a half Danny, fair number. I mean, that's the answer of does that help Mike Norvell? I guess is something that's less interesting right now because there's bigger pieces there is six and a half a fair number for the team that you see in Tallahassee. They've got seven wins the last two years. Two wins two years ago. Now they granted they doubled it. They're going the right direction. You could make that case, but absolutely. I think it's fair. I would be astounded if it was anything higher. I'd love to see them go over, but I think it's a fair number with the portal additions or lack thereof with any really great players. Absolutely. I think it's fair. Yeah. I mean, they're probably slight dogs at home to SMU to open the year. Like they're definitely dogs at Bama. They're dogs at Louisville. They're dogs at Miami. I think they're dogs at Pitt. They're dogs to Florida. You know, depending on what you think of NC State at home, but like that's a difficult sandwich spot there, right between Pitt and Florida. They probably dogs to Clemson at home small. They lost to UVA last year. That's a home game. This is not a real easy schedule within the ACC for a mid-level ACC team to have. Right? Which is what Florida State is undoubtedly. Correct. Yeah. Like this roster is nothing special. So, I mean, you, you don't miss Louisville. You don't miss Miami. You don't miss Clemson. You don't miss SMU. Like you're, you're playing, those are what the four conference favorites. I guess you miss Cal and then you miss having to play JKS, but like this is not a really easy schedule for them. No, eight area trip. Hello. That was nightmarish last year. You know, that was the one that really sent us into the tailspin of how did we go from top 10 in the country to, are we going to fire our coach in the off week? So we don't have to revisit those. That's nice. That is nice. Gosh, that, you know, we've talked about SMU before for SMU, you know, big game. Accame feels massive for Florida State because I mean, the fan base is already not thrilled. And if you assume you lose to Alabama, like if you start off one in three, that's just, and then a coach who's already had trouble turning things around, you know, dealing with adversity, going through rough patches. It hasn't been great. Forget the wind total. What's the over under on how many games before Norvell is fired? I'm setting it at seven and a half. You going under or over the number of games into the season before he's fired. It is the most brutal by week for it to be after Miami before after Miami is basically a by week that's after the Miami game when they've had to go at Louisville and at Miami and back to back games where it's very possible. They might only have three to four wins on the season. So if they're sitting there, yeah, they're sitting there at three and four is Isdall Haggans coaching the Clemson game. That's what I mean. Exactly. Yeah, I del bent an interim coach for three different coaches. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. You know, looking at that, I, it's a lot easier to say, we believe in them, we're going to bring them back. But you still have to deal with the consequences of the decision. So I don't know how well the administration is going to deal with people not showing up, right? Not caring. Like, there's a difference between anger and apathy. And I think, I think the latter is a lot more what this fan base is moving to right now. Right. That's the sense I get to the crowd shots of empty stands. Yeah. Like the hopelessness. We'll just get them next year. Yeah, it sucks. I hate that. I've been trying to tell the fans, hey, let's back the team to try to surprise me upside. But it's a hard sell. Again, it's another huge reason why you got to beat SMU, hopefully start three and one, you know, get a win at home against Virginia. Like you got, you got to get some positive mojo early or else we probably will be talking about what we could happens. Yeah. Undeniable pressure on Mike Norvell. He is going to be the face of the hot seat. We talk about it all the time. Every single fall, every national outlet is going to have a hot seat article going into the season. Mike Norvell's face is going to be on the splash image of all the hot seat conversations. SMU second game of the year, an opportunity to swing that one way or the other massive right out of the gate. Do you think there is pressure on Bill O'Brien at Boston College? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Good. I don't know if there is. Really? I think three and a half. I think, I think there's a world where they could be four and eight or five and seven and every just train keeps moving. Now, if they're two and 10 and the team checks out to your point about what it looks like, but I don't think you're dealing with the same calculations in terms of fan apathy. I think that's more about has he lost the team? The sun's still shining, Boston College is playing football. If they're out there playing, then I think that there's a world where they miss the postseason and he's still the head coach for 27. I don't know how much pressure he's under. I do think there's pressure not for it not to be like a disaster. Correct. Three and a half says we could have a disaster. Right. Yeah. That's, that is not a great number to be looking at. And now my schedule is not loading. Sorry. They did just hire a basketball coach. So yeah, packed it. Like, whoa, whoa, whoa, we don't want to do this twice. How does that impact it? Yeah, like spending wise. Like, because they are apparently going to be, you know, just speaking off the dome here, if they're getting, if they're convincing Luke Murray to leave UConn when he's had interest from other schools, unless Luke just really loves the New England area, they seriously, they need to be promising something as far as funds being put into that basketball program. So if they're going to be diverting more money to the basketball team, are they going to want to pay whatever the buyout is for O'Brien and then go get another coaching staff in the same fiscal year? I don't know. These really exciting discussions that we have. In just the hill. Yeah. It's possible. But, you know, if they think that if they think Bill O'Brien is running a program without like major flaws or harassment lawsuits or, you know, like if it's, if they're getting out there, putting on their jersey, going out and fighting hard, not just on total quit. And yeah, I don't, I'm not sure. Three and a half says that we are at least verging on, like, we are close enough to disaster that they might have their hand forced by the results. Also, Matt Ryan's got an NFL team to run. So how much attention is he paying? A lot of things you gotta think about. Let's see. Luke, did Luke Murray take a discount to be able to funnel money into the rev share? I don't know. I don't know what Luke Murray's, I don't know what his contract is right now. We'll have to have to do some digging on that one. Bill Belichick's win total last season was seven and a half fell way short of that with the four and eight season. This year's team has a win total of four and a half. What does that tell you about the North Carolina Tar Heels? Crypto bill by the dip, baby. Seriously, Chip, what do you think? I know. Yeah, I'm very curious. Okay, I think that this year's team with an upgraded quarterback and an upgraded offensive coordinator being able to retain a few of the individual pieces and like admittedly, they're going to be super young, 40 person class of, so how about this ready? All right. On the North Carolina 2026 football roster, there are 48 red shirt or true freshmen. There are 12 seniors or older. That is seniors, red shirt seniors and graduate students. So there are four times as many players with zero or one year of experience as there are of four or more years of experience. Super, super young team. A lot of ways that that could end up impacting them negatively, but with the upgrade, I think that the 2026 Tar Heels will be about a touchdown better than the 2025 Tar Heels. I think that if the 2026 Tar Heels played last year's schedule, they would be a bull team. They'd be six and six, they'd be seven and five, but here's the problem. They ain't playing the 2025 North Carolina schedule. They're playing the 2026 North Carolina schedule. And so for four and a half, I think it's a fair number because you are seeing about that much of an upgrade to where the team could be better and then you could still be sitting on four and eight, five and seven style results. But I do think that from upgraded quarterback, upgraded offensive coordinator, and just a year of being able to go through it, I think that they are going to be a more competent product on the field. I do not think this is damn near a guarantee. They will not have the 123rd offense in the country. Yeah, I completely agree with that. I mean, if you look at them, they should be a lot more competent. And I agree with you, the schedule is not as cake as last year's was. I don't think Bill Belichick is under pressure to go seven and five or eight and four. But he's got a bull, right? I think he is. I mean, no one's going to fire him. I don't know. You got to look, you got to look more competitive against some of the better teams like TCU to start off, like better be close. You don't want to get housed again and embarrassed. But I think how it looks matters, you know, more competent, closer games. Gosh, who would have thought we'd be sitting here a year or two talking about Bill Belichick just making a bowl. Yeah, it's like a success. Yeah. I do think sick. We played that game. I can't remember if it was the SEC or the big 10. I think it was the big 10 show. We said elevator up or elevator down. I said a game and a half either way. If we were to play that with North Carolina and you said what's more likely six and six or three and nine, I think six and six is more likely than three and nine. Better be, but I would agree with you. I would not confidently say six and six, but I think that there is, there's enough that's been learned here. Tom, why's your head cocked? I don't know. It's just how I look. What do you think about the Tar Heels? I'm buying the dip. Schedule's impossible, but total seems low. Four and a half. I think they get to five. Yeah, I get to six. That maybe, maybe that's, maybe that's about where we start selling, you know? Oh yeah, but yeah, that's another thing is if you want to talk about big picture, you mentioned the Luke Murray piece of this. I do not think there's an appetite within the athletic department to pass around the hat once again after everything that's happened in the last two years or so. So yeah, I don't know about the pressure level, but obviously a big headline here. Anything else before we get out of here, stand out about the wind totals. You can circle a team, a coach, anything. Floor's open. I think tech is interesting. Georgia tech. I mean, six and a half. I feel like that's a fan base that feels like they're, they're a winner two better than that, you know, but based on, on what, what Brent Key has done there. That'll be interesting to watch. Who else we got here? I think we'll go ahead. Duke won the damn league. They're at five and a half. I wrote down all those. So I mentioned Virginia Clemson, Georgia Tech, Duke, like Duke and Virginia played in the ACC championship game. Virginia's at seven and a half, Duke's at five and a half. Georgia Tech was very much in the mix. They fit there at six and a half. And then the Clemson Tigers, who we have spent extensive time discussing here over the last several weeks, they're down there at seven and a half. A lot of the teams that were, that we've talked about a lot in this conference, just not expected to have great seasons. If Vegas is right. What if I mean, what if Darian Ments is still at Duke? That wind total is probably seven and a half, right? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And Cooper Bar, Kate, you know, like an insert like, yeah. Yeah. Man, that's cool. We did, we did a whole show focusing on the ACC and didn't give Clemson a segment because Clemson's, it feels like a symptom of something. What do you mean? Hey, feels like they're dead. I don't think they're dead. They're just, I don't think they're what they were. Nationally relevant. They're dead. I think it is more likely that Clemson goes nine and three than six and six. I would say that's, yeah, the elevator, but it's hard to say the elevators up. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I know. Not even like a great, you know, because they're standard. Right. I mean, the wouldn't it be hilarious is to go beat lane. That would be fantastic. Moneyline sprinkle right now. I mean, to go six and six, you would be like at LSU in Miami. Okay. Okay. And then you need to lose four more of UNC at home at Cal, host the Hokies in Tallahassee at Syracuse, host Georgia Tech at Duke, host South Carolina. And that's four and four in those other eight games and going 0 and 2 against Miami and LSU. Like your Gimmies in that situation are what Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern. Charleston Southern. But six and six is unacceptable. Six and six is hard conversations. Six and six is like, remember, like Tommy Bowden stepped away. We're like echoes of like, you know, this is, you know, I'm not just, it's not working anymore for the betterment of the program. Like, and I don't know if Dabo has the personality that Tommy Bowden does for the record. I do not think it would go as cleanly as it did when Tommy Bowden stepped down. Dabo took over and they were able to kind of find some success right away. But six and six is unacceptable losses for Clemson football. Keep in mind, two of those road games Friday nights without a buy short week road trips to Cal and to Syracuse. And we know Clemson never struggles at Syracuse. That's, that's true. That is true. If you've got any more, any other schools or anything you want to point to, sorry, I realized we've run a little bit long here. We can continue any of these conversations. If you would like to get in on it on Thursday 11am Eastern time, we will be taking your questions both from the live tailgate and also from the big old bag of mail. So be sure to get them in. And as I said at the beginning of the show, we'll do our Notre Dame win total if Vegas is right to get things started off. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fresneli. You can follow him at Bud Elliott 3. You can follow him at Danny Cannell. Follow me at ship underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you. See you guys. See ya.