It's the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. This is James Yarko from Locked On Bucks, and I want you to imagine for a moment you're watching the big game at a buddy's house. Everyone's having a good time, and you get a call that someone tried to break into your home. In a second, everything can change. That's why there's ADT. ADT's security systems helps keep your home safe 24-7 with the most company-operated monitoring centers in the industry. And the ADT Plus app keeps you in control the whole time. Don't leave your home wide open during an emergency. When every second counts, count on ADT. Visit ADT.com or call 1-800-ADT-ASAP. Hey, everyone. This is Ross Jackson, one of the hosts of the Locked On Podcast Network. If your group chat's been a little quiet lately, I want to invite you to come and join ours. If you sign up for the everyday or club, you get access to the members only group chats for your favorite teams. Plus national chats for every sport. Personally, I love watching folks talk a little smack in the NFC South trash talk chat. You also get an ad free version of your favorite locked on show and a whole lot more. You can check it out by tapping the everyday or club link in the show notes. what is the best path forward for the bills and dawson knox we're going to discuss that right now i'm locked on bills you are locked on bills your daily buffalo bills podcast part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. What's up, Bills Mafia? It's Joe Marino, host of Locked On Bills. That's Jerry Ostrowski, 102-game starter for the Buffalo Bills, and we'd like to welcome you in, and thank you for tuning in to this episode of Locked On Bills. Locked On Bills is a proud part of the Locked On Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network. Well, folks, welcome in. Jerry and I have a couple of topics we want to dive into today. Later on, we'll get into Jim Leonard's scheme and kind of compare it to Sean McDermott's scheme and maybe why Sean McDermott chose some of the things that he did and maybe where we're excited about how things will be different under Jim Leonard. But I want to start with a conversation about Dawson Knox because it's very clear that the Bills have to do something here. The cap hit is around $18 million as things currently stand, and that's just not going to work. Dawson Knox is a good football player, but that is a number that won't really work. And the Bills have some flexibility with it, whether that's releasing him, extending him. We want to get into the plan, the right plan for Dawson Knox. So Jerry, as we get into this Dawson Knox conversation, before we really kind of outline what we think is the right path forward, we'd love to just discuss his value and his importance to this football team. I think Dawson Knox is incredibly important to the Buffalo Bills, you know, leadership for one thing. He's been through it. He's a very good person. He's a hard worker. He's reliable. All those things. You look at his career in Buffalo, it's been nothing but good. And across the league in the NFL, there's a ton of veteran tight ends like him that really do good things for their teams. You can see all kinds of examples across the league of tight ends that have been in the game quite a while that are still productive. I see that in Dawson Knox. I want him on this football team. He's incredibly valuable, especially with Kincaid. It's a different skill set. He's a guy that we've kind of got three extremes. We've got the guy that can flex out and run the routes and maybe he's not as good of a blocker. You've got the guy that's a hammerhead that can make all the blocks and maybe he's not as great running the running routes. And then you got the guy in the middle, which is Dawson Knox, more like the old school tight end. So hopefully they find a way to get him here. But under the current situation, the current contract, just not advantageous for Brandon Bean and this franchise to keep him around at that price. They got to come up with a compromise. I'm sure there's some people listening that might think, okay, I hear you, Dawson Knox is valuable. But I do have the receiving extreme in Kincaid. I have the blocking extreme in Hawes. Do you have to have him? Is there a world where, of course, you wouldn't just not replace him. You would do something. You'd get another tight end in the room. But do the Bills have to have this level of a commitment to a player like Dawson Knox? Can they get cheaper here? I think they get cheaper with the guy they have. I don't think they have to go out and find one. I think if you find somebody that's comparable to Dawson Knox, you're probably going to have to pay more. I think you have to look at Knox and say, hey, this is a guy, and I hate to use these things, but it's life. This is big boy stuff. I mean, this is life, okay? He's got a wife who's from Buffalo. They had a young baby, probably wants to stay around her family and be there, right? So he's made quite a bit of money in his career. He has a chance to still make good money and also play with a guy like Josh Allen, who supposedly they're very good friends in an atmosphere, in a franchise he's very familiar with, in a new stadium. I don't see why he wouldn't want to help the franchise out and make this to where it's a win-win for both sides. Because if you go out and try to find the guy that's got Dawson Knox's type of ability right now, probably have to pay more. That's what you're doing for agency, right? So I don't see them finding a guy, a vet to bring in and save all this money. If they did anything they probably have to draft another one I like Kincaid I like Haas but I be nervous about this tight end row without Dawson Knox because I do think he essential for protecting yourself against Dalton Kincaid who had availability issues it nice to know that oh Kincaid can't go well at least we have Dawson Knox and I do think for the structure of the offense where they do want to go 12 personnel 13 personnel they want to be multiple with personnel groupings Dawson Knox is a foundational piece to that and so I I think for those reasons plus high-end leadership. I love the way he talks about his teammates. I love the way he talks about Josh Allen. I love the way he's defended Dalton Kincaid. He's been through a lot with the Bills as a third-round pick that was an immediate starter, had a nice glow-up, got a big contract. The next thing you know, they draft another tight end. He takes a lesser role. The receiving production kind of dipped, went back up this past year. I like kind of how whatever the Bills have needed him to do, he's done. And it's been a good development story. It's been a good draft pick by Brandon Bean. and I'd like to see him continue in Buffalo. So it does come down to the right plan. We've acknowledged he's not playing on this current cap number. So the Bills have some options here. They could release him. They could release him and get $9.64 million in cap space. It would be $7.4 million in dead cap, but that 9.6 in savings is real. The other thing they can do is extend him. They can extend him, and we don't even have to get into the terms of the deal. I would assume it's around $8 million a season. I think that's probably the fair amount for Dawson Knox. That doesn't matter in terms of the cap savings that you would get through an extension. By extending Dawson Knox, the bills can save up to $8.2 million, regardless of what the terms of the new deal is. That feels right to me. I'd like to add a couple years to the deal. Take more Dawson Knox now and in the future and get $8.2 million in cap space right now. I feel like that's the cake and eat it too scenario. I totally agree with you. If you put him on the open market by cutting him, there's a chance he don't come back. there's a chance he makes quite a bit more as far as going to another team than what the Bills would be able to offer. I like the extension as well. It's nice for Dawson Knox too because he doesn't have that stigma hanging over his head of being a released guy. You know, they give him – you get the extension, so you can say I was extended even though it's at a lower rate. It's best for both parties. I agree with that. I think extending him is the way to go, and they should. I mean, he's been – the best thing about Dawson Knox is he's available. He's a reliable player. He's very seldom injured. He makes the plays he's supposed to make for the most part. He's very reliable. And those are the types of guys, those are cornerstone pieces in a franchise. And you can't have a team with just nothing but superstars. You've got to have these Dawson Knox role players. Yeah, I agree. Extend them, keep them in the system, keep them around, and let's ride and see what happens. Predictively, I think that's what happens as well. But we'll see what happens. It'll play out very soon. We know something will happen, and we'll have the clarity on that within the next couple of weeks. All right, coming up next, we're going to talk a little bit about Jim Leonard's scheme, compare it a little bit to Sean McDermott and get into some philosophy stuff. So, folks, be sure to stick with us. Ever wanted to experience the NBA Finals live and in person? Well, FanDuel is going to give you that chance to turn that dream into reality with their NBA sweepstakes. Here's how it works. 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Welcome in, folks, to the five-hour energy flavor draft with 18 different flavors to choose from, including new options like Confetti Craze, Fruity Rainbow, or Cotton Candy. there is something for everyone. The draft is ready to go. The board is set. The flavors are ready. And I've got the number one pick in this five-hour energy flavor draft. And my choice is berry. You get that big, bold berry flavor, slightly sweet, very fruity, that classic mixed berry flavor with notes of raspberry and blackberry. It's smooth. It's sweet, but it's not overly sugary. That's my number one pick. But when it comes to sleepers, don't sleep on strawberry banana. It's a classic combination that consistently delights. Five-hour energy shots give you a boost with zero sugar. Find your new favorite flavor of five-hour energy shots available online at fivehourenergy.com or Amazon. All right, welcome back, folks. Joe Marino, Jerry Ostrowski here. We have a question that we want to answer that was sent in by Charlie. And Charlie says there's a lot of noise lately about how the new defensive scheme is more flexible and able to use more diverse skill sets. Layman's take, it enables space eaters and bendy edge rushers at the cost of preferring bigger linebackers. Why would McDermott run a scheme that limits player types? It seems like with margins as thin as the NFL, it's crazy to limit the pass rush. So we've, we've been hyping up this new scheme and now it's, now it's time to, now it's time to answer the question. Well if it so great why why wouldn Sean McDermott more open to some of this What what your thoughts on that Jerry Well I think some coordinators have you know obviously there different ideas of how to do things And if McDermott ever decided to go to Vegas and be a Texas Hold player or professional gambler, he'd probably do pretty well because that's the way he ran his defense. It was all on, you know, probabilities. It was all on analytics and what happens. I mean, I always use that analogy about when a dealer is showing six or less and blackjack, you don't hit, right? And that's kind of how McDermott runs his defense. It's a very, very analytically driven. He's playing probabilities, you know, limiting the big play, keeping everything in front of you, control the controllables. And it just, if you've heard the stories about him and how things are, and you kind of watched him throughout his career in Buffalo, it makes sense, right? I mean, that's the kind of guy he is. You know, there's some guys like Leonard who'd like to take chances. They want to get downhill, take the chance. And I might give up an explosive, but the big play, the probability or the chance to make that big play, I've got to do this. And so they live on big plays and things like that. So it's just two different styles. And, you know, obviously it worked for Sean for quite some time. It does have its limitations, just like the other style does as well. So, you know, they, they both have things that are negatives. They both have things that are positives. It's just that I think Sean liked to, to make sure things were, he had his hand on things and things were under control. I want to ask you about the limitations of Leonard's scheme, but I do want to kind of add a thought on that because I completely agree with you where McDermott was aware of a lot of analytics and he made his defense in such a way that it gave him his best probabilities, right? And so I think, for example, everything was about eliminating explosive plays in the passing game and if you look at the numbers if you get an explosive play in the passing game on a drive an offense your probability of scoring quadruples so Sean McDermott sees something like that and says okay our number one priority needs to be not giving up explosive plays and he was very good at that that's true they were great at not allowing explosive plays down the field in fact if you look metrically at like average depth of target against the Bills defense throughout the years it's consistently towards the bottom of the league in terms of the least amount of yards per target that were attempted uh so that was a key priority and so because that's well we got to live in too high right we got to play splits field safety we can never be heavy in the box because more important than defending the run is making sure that you don't get explosives in the passing game also if we're going to live in these structures it means that it's going to challenge the patience of the quarterback and we know that you want to kind of hunt and get those big plays and if you do guess what we're going to do we're going to take away the football and what was Sean McDermott's defense is very good at every year, taking away the football. So he leaned into these probabilities, and it's very – it's defendable. Okay, it's defendable. It's not like it's garbage scheme. It doesn't work. It's stupid. That's not at all the case. It's just the choice that he made with the style that he had. I think the biggest issue with Sean McDermott was that his best defensive players were consistently not available in the playoffs and were always frustrated at Sean McDermott's defense in the playoffs. He'd probably be saying, well, I'd like to have my guys be cool to play the Chiefs if I had Benford and didn't have to call A.J. Klein out of retirement to come play Mike Backer for us. And we had Micah Hyde and Matt Milano wasn't hurt. Tredavious White didn't get hurt again. And that Oliver wasn't out. I'm sure Von Miller, right? I can if I'm Sean McDermott, that's what I'm saying. So I would have loved to have seen Sean McDermott's defenses as they're intended to be in the playoffs. So he made his choices and it was very analytically driven. Even the whole point about the Bills weren't a great sack team under Sean McDermott. I don't think they wanted to be. I think they wanted to be a good pressure team that forces the football into low percentage areas of the field that are harder to complete. He was willing to live with that, right? Because over all these metrics kind of put together, you're going to have a good defense. I think availability was more than scheme and choices. Availability was probably the biggest thing with Sean McDermott's defense. Now I do have questions a little bit about why McDermott didn't care a little bit more about defending the run because you and I both agree in this philosophy that you have to earn the right to rush the passer by defending the run and that concession was a little goofy to me to the extreme that McDermott leaned into it especially early on I think maybe this last year there was some changes there a little bit but that's the part that kind of confused me that was the piece of the formula but it didn't always add up for me. Well, I think we got so geared up to beat certain people that we gave up areas that we maybe shouldn't have as far as run. So what was one of the best performances we had all season long this past season when we played the Chiefs at home? I mean, it was a masterful performance. Now, granted, Chiefs weren't quite the team they've been, but still that's kind of how we've been built trying to just erase the history of 13 seconds. How do we beat the Chiefs? How do we beat the Chiefs? And granted, I mean, we gave up quite a bit of rushing yards to the fact that we were towards the bottom of the league. But, you know, it helped in other areas, I guess you could say. And also, too, some of the availability of players not being able to play helped with that also. But, no, I think you're on to something. One thing about McDermott's defenses are, and the way you play probabilities and stuff, and this is where it'll be interesting to see what Leonard's defense is like. I thought that McDermott could win or be in many more games with lesser talent because of the way he called games and the way they did things as opposed to some defense where if you don't have your studs you not going to you not going to play well and if you out there trying to make big plays all the time and you out there blitzing all the time doing these different things sometimes you get predictable and sometimes you better have top talent to be able to do those things. Where McDermott, I think, got by on lesser talent because of the way he called stuff with the analytics and everything else. The game that I can point to that ties everything together for me about Sean McDermott is in the 2020 season. and the bills it was a goofy stretch it was a covid year they played tennessee and kansas city back-to-back weeks and remember the scheduling things like the bills play like on a tuesday and then like on a wednesday it was insane they played the chiefs in buffalo the bills lost this game okay they lost this game 26 to 17 and if you remember it's very weird because the chiefs ran the ball all over the bills clide edward soler had 26 carries for 161 yards clide edward Hilaire couldn't get a carry in the NFL right now if he wanted one. Right. And he had 161 yards against the Bills. And this was back when Mahomes was throwing for crazy yards. It was, in fact, the season where he had the most yards per game passing. He averaged, Mahomes averaged in 2020, 316 passing yards per game. And I remember the Bills lost that game. And they had a chance at the end, right? It was like kind of a weird game. But I remember the big talking point from so many people was every time Patrick Mahomes didn't drop back to throw and he handed the ball to Clyde Edwards Hilaire, it was a win for the Bills. And by doing so, it took the Chiefs out of the game they wanted to play because we know he doesn't want to run the ball that many times. That's not his game. He does not want Clyde Edwards Hilaire having the same amount of rushes as Patrick Mahomes passes. And that was the case. They also ran the ball with other players as well. You know, they, Darrell Williams had six carries in that game. Darwin Thompson had three Tyreek Hill had one. So they ran the ball over 30 times. That's not what Andy Reid wants to do. But the point was that Sean McDermott invited the run. They said, okay, we're going to play too high. And every time you hand the ball to Clyde Edwards, Hilaire, that is way better than dropping back the pass with Patrick Mahomes. Bills lost the game, but they introduced enough variance that gave him a chance. They lost the game though. But I think that was a game for me that really stands out as, oh, that's what McDermott wants to get done. exactly because what are you doing when you run the ball now obviously this year we had some explosives in the run game against this but most of the time you're getting the guy on the ground at some point however many yards it is you're going to get him on the ground so you go make another play the more plays the offense runs the more probability that they make a mistake right and it just it all fits in it all fits hand in hand and it's like i said you know i think that he'd probably be really good in vegas if he decided to go be a professional card player because he understands all that stuff pretty well. And that's, that's another part of it. They're okay. You want to have a 10, 12 play drive against us. Okay. We think at some point you're going to make a mistake at some point, you're going to make a mistake. And when you do, we'll be ready to pounce on it. That's what he chose to do. All right. So we've talked a lot about Sean McDermott's defense. You tease, you said Jim Leonard's defense has flaws as well. What stands out to you? Well, I think part of it is it's going to be do or die on aggression. You know, he likes to take chances. They like to get after it. And you're going to have to live with that. You're going to give up big plays sometimes. And you're going to hope that 17, I've always felt this, like I've been willing to take chances in Buffalo because I know what our offense is and who's taking snaps so we can get points back. So I'm not worried about that, but a lot of times you're going to have to worry about, you know, giving up big plays where we haven't given up many big plays over the last so many years with McDermott. The other thing is it's pretty, you know it's it's pretty player driven I mean you're gonna have to have your guys out there you just can't get by on you know the practice squad guy every week or like we've done this past couple of seasons with these immense amount of injuries you gotta stay pretty healthy you gotta have your guys out there because you know it's um it's pretty specific as far as what these guys do it's very very role oriented like they've got specific things it's not a lot now don't get me wrong I'm not trying to say it's it's like confusing but you know your nose has to be that nose you You rush in, he's got to win, right? You've got certain jobs that these guys do, and they're not crazy, but you're specific. I think that's a big task ahead for Jim Leonard this year is that, hey, you're not going to get everything you want, but it is on you to figure it out based on the hand you're dealt. And so it feels like the messaging has been very good that he understands that you've heard Joe Brady and Brandon Bean say that as well. And Bean has even said, we've had meetings with Jim Leonard, And he says, don't, like, don't go out. He's just giving me good football players, and we'll figure it out. We'll make it work with the players. So it'll take a little time to see the whole, you know, life, the whole idea of it coming together. Yeah, and then also, too, I think he probably runs a little more single high safety stuff as well. So, you know, we talked about McDermott and what he did with the two high shell, but the rest of the league is this is going to be a little bit of an anomaly going to a single high look because this year I believe it's the first time that all teams, I think, ran 30% or the most – or the whole league in general was 30% higher. Highest rate of two high shells. So, you know, this is something we haven't seen that you're going to have to get used to. And once again, what does one – what does single high shell give you? Well, it gives those receivers a chance to get to those deep, those deep, you know, halves because you only got one guy in the middle and it's a little bit different. But, you know, you get by with cover six and cover four and those kind of things. All right. Well, that was a fun conversation there, Jerry Ostrowski. Yeah, hope everyone enjoyed. We hope you'll come back. We got a lot of content in this feed. Yeah. Of course, the daily show that I deliver, Jerry and I delivering a second show, Bill Squad, a couple times a week. So don't miss it. Make sure that you're subscribed. We'd love it. If you took a second to rate, review, and share the podcast, have a great rest of your day, and go Bills. Much love, folks. Go Bills.
