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Trevor Story and Greg Weisser. Okay, now both of those guys should look at them on paper and you say, pretty good players, and they are. But the problem is that when you get into key situations, and they go up against good competition, the vulnerabilities are there and teams exploit them. So I want to start with Trevor Story. I'll tell you what, let's do this. Story had a pretty good year last year. 25 homeruns, I think was the final number. And I want to show you though where the problem is with Trevor Story. And so before I even, I'm going to back this up here for a second, just to tell you this. Trevor Story has trouble with velocity and everybody knows it, but it's also going to be in the right spot. So last year of the 25 homeruns that Trevor Story hit, and I want to give you the exact number here so that we're completely accurate with the totals. Story last season hit 25 homeruns, finished with the 741 OPS. He knocked in 96 runs, and on the surface, you would say, all of those things look pretty good. Except the problem is that Story is vulnerable to velocity, and he has a below average bad speed that exploits him or leaves him to be exploited. Now, so I want you to watch here on these homeruns, and particularly pay attention to where these pitches are. Okay, Story hit five homeruns last year on pitchers 95 or greater. So 20 of his home 25 homeruns came on off speed or breaking balls. Okay, remember that off speed or breaking. The only five homeruns he had on pitches 95 plus were these five here. This one's at Yankee Stadium. You'll see right here 97, but this ball goes to right field. Everything's a homerun in right field at Yankee Stadium. This one 96 in over the left field wall 95 down and in this one 98 up and in, in or half of the plate. This one comes in at 95 by Carlos Rodan. He also hits that one out of the ballpark. Now, here's what I'm getting at. Story gears himself up to handle fastballs on the inside. He can turn on those, particularly if they're down in the strike zone. The last one he hit on the video we showed you from Carlos Rodan, the homerun off of Rodan, was in the middle of the plate, but it was also at 95. It was in 98. Just want you to keep that in mind. The point is Story knows he has trouble handling the fastballs. Been in the big leagues a long time. The numbers on it are well documented. Velocity gives him trouble. He doesn't have the same bat speed he used to have. So now when you come into the weekend, Story had a big situation on Saturday. Two runners on, nobody out. Red Sox down by a run late in the game. Now he's facing a hard throwing left-hander here. And again, I want to back it up just a little so you can see it from the very beginning. He's going to see velocity in the early part of this at bat. Also, I want you to pay attention where he's standing in the batter's butts. See how he's kind of in the middle and he's even open. This is so he can handle the inside fastball. He knows he has trouble getting there. So he wants to create as much room as possible. But the reliever on the mound for the Phillies throws in the high 90s, not the mid 90s. So I want you to pay attention to the sequencing of this at bat in the late innings. Here's what you're going to see. Fastball up in the strike zone. He misses. Fastball away and up. He misses. Change up down and away. Now I'm going to stop there for a second. It's a logical sequence. We'll hit you with velocity high, then down and away off the plate. Story laid off the first change. On the second one here, you're going to see that he has to reach. Because again, he's worried about velocity inside. He gets a piece of this one here and he fouls it off. Next pitch, fastball in. Now we're five pitches into the at bat. Story has seen high velocity. And when the fastball came inside, it was up and knocked him off the plate. So instinctively here you think, well, I've seen fastball change here. They're probably going to go back down and away going up and in. You know what the Padres do? They throw him a slider. Down and in. He swings over the top of it and strikes out. So again, he's looking for velocity on the inner part of the plate. He gets a slider down and in and swings over the top of it. But the point being is this. Story wants the fastball to be in and down. If you go there, he can get to it. He might just run into it. It's a hard pitch for him to handle. It's a hard pitch for all guys to handle. But if you go in there and you get it up in the strike zone, or even a little off the inside of the plate, meaning towards the middle of the plate, he can't handle that one either. So he ends up striking out in a key at bat. The Red Sox end up actually scoring in that inning and getting the runs home anyway. But the fact that matter is they lost the game later on. Story, all he has to do in that situation is put the bat on the ball and get the ball in play. And the Red Sox will score a run to tie the game. Even if it's a double play, they will score. He couldn't do it. Now, just quickly as a personal thing to hit on, there's been a lot of talk about Xander Bogarts versus Story. Bogarts has not played well in San Diego since he went there. And he certainly is not worth the money. Nobody's arguing that. But for those who think the Red Sox made the right move in bringing in Trevor's Story as Bogarts replacement, I don't think that's necessarily true either. So here's just a quick look, courtesy of baseball reference, at how Story and Bogarts have performed since Bogarts left Boston. Okay, this takes away Trevor's Story's first year here because the two of them played together. But if you examine it over that length of time, Xander Bogarts has actually been the better player. Maybe not by a lot, but certainly in terms of availability, he's been on the field a lot more. His war is higher in part as a result of that. His OPS is higher. He's hit more home runs. He's knocked in more runs. He's even stolen more bases than Trevor's Story has during that period of time. In fact, he pretty much beats him across the board in every statistic there. My only point on this whole matter is no one is saying that the Red Sox made the wrong move by letting Xander Bogarts go. He ended up getting a 12-year deal for $290 million. Story's deal is half that. But again, it comes down to the kind of player the Red Sox ended up getting for the person they just replaced. They got a worse player and a cheaper player who hasn't performed to the same level, even with the good year he had a year ago. So yes, me in a big spot, would I rather have Bogarts' Story? I'll take Xander Bogarts every single time. I think Xander Bogarts is largely a winning player. I think he's a good team guy. And I'm not saying that Story is not Story, but all accounts is an excellent teammate. But I view Xander Bogarts as a baseball player. I view Trevor's Story as an athlete who plays baseball. There are two different things. And I think that came to bear over the weekend. Bogarts actually had a couple of good games in that series against the Red Sox. Now, the second thing which concerns the bullpen and specifically Greg Weisser. So Weisser, again, if you look at his numbers, he's used quite a bit. Alex Corre uses them in the middle innings. Typically in about the sixth or seventh inning area. But really, if you think about it, Weisser, it's more of a sixth inning guy. And if everything goes according to form, Gerrit Whitlock gets to the, I'm sorry, Justin Slayton gets to seventh. Gerrit Whitlock gets the eighth. Or oldest Chapman gets the ninth. And that's a loose application, generally speaking, of what Alex Corre does or a broad characterization of what Alex Corre does in those situations. Greg Weisser's numbers on paper look good. But I want to show you, first of all, he blew a save over the weekend to San Diego when he gave up a home run to Manny Machado. And I want first to show you this video. Okay. And again, we're going to pause it here momentarily. Weisser has given up three home runs this year. I want to tell you the problem with Greg Weisser. He doesn't know where the ball's going. He rarely knows where it's going. And he often misses the target by quite a bit. And he can get away with it because of the movement on his slider. And even the velocity and movement on his fastball. But good hitters will go up with a certain discipline and make him pay. So I want to watch it. I want you to watch a couple of the videos here. First of all, this home run early in the year to Ellie Dilla Cruz. I was not one that hurt the Red Sox particularly, but I want you to watch in all of these videos where Narvaya sets up, where the ball ends up. Okay. Watch the pitch to Dilla Cruz. Narvaya wants it out. He's got to reach across. Gets absolutely pulverized into the right field seats. Now this one, Red Sox leading two to nothing in the sixth inning. This is a blown save by Weisser. Earlier in the year, again, you're in a saved situation when you get to the sixth, as crazy as it sounds. So Weisser has 0-2 on Eugenio Suarez, who's an easy strikeout. Narvaya is set up on the upper outside of the plate. Watch where the pitch ends up. Here it comes. Here's the slider down and in, hangs in the middle of the plate, gets pulverized into left field. Now we're going to back up here just a little bit. This is yesterday or this is Sunday against the Padres, Manny Machado in the batter's box. Again, Narvaya wants this ball down and away. He wants this ball to go down and away to Machado. You can see his glove rather all the way down by the ground. Watch the pitch by Weisser. Ends up on the inner part of the plate, hanging slider and gets destroyed into the left field seats. That one cost the Red Sox a game against the Padres. Greg Weisser misses location constantly, constantly, has no idea where the freaking ball is going. So that's the problem with Weisser. And again, I would argue as a six-thinning guy, you might be able to get away with him, but you put him in a big spot against good teams. And again, I say big spots in the middle of the game. It's where Cora uses him, but he's vulnerable there. And just to give you the full numbers, Weisser in the last two years, 25 and 26, tied for the Major League lead in Blonesave, this has been a problem for the Red Sox in the year, early year as well. So again, critical situations. What I always say is the equivalent of third down in baseball. Men in scoring position or two outs of men in scoring position. Trevor's story is an easy out, easy to pitch to. And Greg Weisser makes mistakes that come back to bite him in the ass. And both of those things bit the Red Sox over the weekend. Two and seven after nine games. Obviously Milwaukee has come into Boston here. But I just wanted to show you some things from over the weekend that are worth hitting on here as the year goes on. Yes, yes, yes, it's still early, but the Red Sox have holes to fill and they have problems. And they have to play a near perfect game to be good competition. And they have not won a series yet. We'll catch you next time. Thanks for watching Breaking Balls.
