The John Phillips Show

The first guilty plea in the Sheng Thao corruption case

37 min
Feb 12, 20262 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The episode covers the first guilty plea in the Sheng Thao corruption case involving San Leandro Councilman Brian Acevedo, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy and honest services wire fraud related to a scheme involving the Dong family's shipping container business. The discussion also covers California Governor Gavin Newsom's wife Jennifer Siebel Newsom's confrontational behavior at a press conference and the 2026 California gubernatorial race simulator showing a 12% chance of two Republicans in the runoff.

Insights
  • Federal investigations (not state AG) are uncovering major corruption schemes in California, suggesting state-level oversight failures in housing and development contracts
  • Political figures connected to corrupt schemes face minimal consequences until actual conviction, despite FBI raids and indictments, creating accountability gaps
  • Shipping container housing schemes appear to be widespread in California with massive markups (containers costing $1,500-$5,000 marked up to $300,000), indicating systemic fraud in homeless housing programs
  • California's top-two primary system creates unexpected opportunities for minority parties when the majority vote is fractured across many candidates
  • Press access restrictions to elected officials (Newsom does no local interviews) concentrate power and reduce accountability to local constituents
Trends
Corruption in California homeless housing and development contracts involving shipping containers and inflated pricingFederal law enforcement (FBI/DOJ) more effective than state-level oversight in uncovering political corruptionPolitical spouses increasingly inserting themselves into policy discussions and press managementCalifornia gubernatorial race fragmentation creating unexpected primary scenariosCooperating witnesses from corruption cases becoming key prosecution tools in larger investigationsLack of local media access to governors reducing accountability for state-level issuesShipping container housing as vehicle for fraud in California homeless servicesCampaign finance used for legal defense in corruption cases (Rob Bonta spending $450K on lawyers)
Topics
Sheng Thao corruption case and guilty pleasShipping container housing fraud schemesCalifornia homeless housing contractsFederal corruption investigations vs state oversightDong family corruption networkCalifornia Waste Solutions contractsHonest services wire fraud chargesPolitical corruption in Bay Area citiesCalifornia gubernatorial primary race 2026Top-two primary system mechanicsPress access restrictions to elected officialsJennifer Siebel Newsom press conference incidentPlanned Parenthood funding announcementHigh-speed rail project oversightPolitical spouse involvement in governance
Companies
California Waste Solutions
Company owned by David Dong; central to corruption scheme involving shipping container sales to Oakland and San Leandro
Evolutionary Homes
Company created by Dong family to sell refurbished shipping containers for homeless housing to municipalities
Planned Parenthood
Received $90 million in California state funding announced at press conference where Jennifer Siebel Newsom confronte...
People
Sheng Thao
Former Oakland Mayor facing federal corruption charges related to Dong family scheme; trial scheduled for April
Brian Acevedo
San Leandro Councilman who pleaded guilty to conspiracy and wire fraud; cooperating witness in Sheng Thao case
David Dong
Owner of California Waste Solutions; orchestrated shipping container corruption scheme with multiple public officials
Rob Bonta
California Attorney General with alleged connections to Dong family; spent $450K on legal defense; withdrew gubernato...
Dan Noyes
ABC 7 I-Team investigative reporter who broke Sheng Thao corruption story and interviewed key figures
Gavin Newsom
California Governor who avoids local media interviews; announced $90M Planned Parenthood funding at contentious press...
Jennifer Siebel Newsom
Governor's wife who confronted reporters at press conference for asking off-topic questions about high-speed rail
Ashley Zavala
KCRA 3 political reporter who asked high-speed rail questions at Newsom press conference and covered the incident
Juan Gonzalez
San Leandro Mayor who released statement about filling Acevedo's council seat after guilty plea
Paul Mitchell
Democratic data expert who created gubernatorial primary simulator showing 12% chance of Republican vs Republican runoff
Chad Bianco
Leading Republican candidate for California governor in 2026 race
Steve Hilton
Leading Republican candidate for California governor in 2026 race
Quotes
"I don't remember nothing now"
Brian AcevedoDuring Dan Noyes interview about shipping container sales arrangement
"We just find it incredulous that we have Planned Parenthood here and women are 51 percent of the population. And the majority of the questions, all of these questions have really been about other issues."
Jennifer Siebel NewsomAt Planned Parenthood press conference
"An empty shipping container can cost between $1,500 and $5,000. So that is a massive return on investment because what exactly are you doing to the shipping container?"
John PhillipsDiscussing shipping container markup scheme
"If you are a dignitary in California, your name's going to be on something."
John PhillipsCommenting on naming buildings after corrupt officials
"So you're saying there's a chance"
John PhillipsReferencing 12% chance of Republican vs Republican gubernatorial runoff
Full Transcript
And a very happy Thursday to you at 12.06 in the West. It's the John Phillips Show. Mr. Randy Wings in Culver City. John, we don't get to say this often, so we're going to have to enjoy it. We have Shang-y news. That's right. I like that. That was amazing. Christmas has come early for all the little boys and girls in the audience. Now, before y'all get too excited, let me just tell you that Shang Tao is not a part of today's story, but it is directly related to the Shang Tao corruption case. Absolutely. Absolutely. As we have our first guilty plea in that case. And that has to do with San Leandro Councilman Brian Acevedo, who is pleading guilty in the Shang Tao Dong family corruption case, where he was caught up in the exact same scam that Shang and her boyfriend were running. I kind of feel sorry for this guy a little bit because when he spoke to Dan Noyes, when Dan Noyes first got word that he could be getting in trouble, it became very apparent right away that this guy is dealing with a room temperature IQ. Well, you could make the same argument about the former mayor of Oakland. The bureaucracy is real. That's very true. my favorite part of that interview was when he was asked a question that had nothing to do with anything let's just say for the purposes of this conversation brian for dinner tonight would you like italian or chinese answer i didn't get a dirty massage when i was in vietnam why are you asking me that and of course that was on his mind because at the center of this entire investigation is this trip that the Dong family took a whole bunch of local electors, including Shang Tao, including Brian Acevedo, to Vietnam to party it up, where they apparently crafted this scheme that the Dong family was going to sell shipping containers to Oakland and San Leandro and who knows where else to the tune of $300,000 per unit. and the person that facilitates the deal, whether it be Acevedo in San Leandro or Shang Tao in Oakland, would get a cut of the deals. And by the way, very different deals were made here because the deal was for San Leandro, he'd get 25% of the sale and then he makes a bank account in his wife's name to start receiving those funds. Shangi's deal, somehow the deal with her was, she puts her reputation on the line, commits illegal acts, so the boyfriend can get a non-existent job at California Waste Solutions. And apparently gentlemen's massages were part of this trip to Vietnam. Apparently. Absolutely. I don't think Shengi got one, but who knows? Yeah, that would be a whole story if they tried to give her one of those. You know, if we get her on the stand, she might start talking. You know, uh, uh. For more on the Shang Tao saga, as we now have our first guilty plea in the corruption case, you know it's going to be ABC 7 in the Bay and the incredible Dan Noyes. From the I-team, a major development in the federal corruption probe into former Oakland Mayor Shang Tao. Shangi, you got mentioned in the news. How do you feel? That's right. I like that. That was amazing. That's how she responds when she's getting probed? you be careful now. ...of California Waste Solutions. Today, the first guilty plea in the case from former San Leandro City Council member Brian Azevedo. The I-team's Dan Noyes first questioned him about his involvement in the case 10 months ago, and he is back now with the latest. Well, I'm in Dan. Brian Azevedo retired just yesterday from his position on the San Leandro City Council. He would have been fired after today's guilty plea to two felonies. Doesn't matter that he got raided by the FBI. was indicted by the FBI. Apparently, you don't lose your job as an elected until you actually plead guilty or get convicted, which is why I guess Curran Price is still serving on the L.A. City Council, making $220,000 a year while he faces trial for corruption. What do you think his reading material is going to be when he goes to the big house? The cat in the hat or hop on pop? Brian, a lot of people put their trust in you. Do you feel badly about betraying their trust? At the Dellums Federal Building in Oakland, Brian Azevedo pled guilty to conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud. In effect, depriving the public of its rights. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. They named the courthouse after a crooked former mayor of Oakland? I wonder what they're going to name after Barbara Lee. Quite frankly. Brian Azevedo pled guilty to conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud. Look, this is just how it works. It doesn't matter how good or bad you were at your job. If you are a dignitary in California, your name's going to be on something. You ever been to the Ford Theater across the canyon from the Hollywood Bowl? It's a smaller theater. It's absolutely beautiful. But when you go up into stands, it is the Sheila Kuehl wing. Well, maybe what they'll do is they'll name massage room number one over at Yum Yum number two after Brian Acevedo. You know, that's what a mayor do. Brian Azevedo pled guilty to conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud. In effect, depriving the public of its right to an honest public official. And he pled guilty to lying to FBI agents who interviewed him during a raid at a San Leandro home January of last year. Yeah, that's usually when you realize the jig is up and you start talking because the FBI knows when you're making stuff up. he is a perfect example why attorneys always tell their clients never to talk to anyone the more this guy talked the more trouble he got into i think it was dan noise that said you think you need to get a lawyer anything at all to say to the public prosecutors told the judge the problems began with a 10-day luxury trip to vietnam here it is oh yes that infamous trip sponsored by David Duong, owner of California Waste Solutions. And let's not forget the Dongs connections here because they have some very lucrative contracts that go back to many people in the past who were running Oakland. And John, who are the Dongs' biggest benefactor in California state politics? That would be the Bonta family, Rob and Mia. Every type of leadership is about meeting the moment and rising to the occasion. And this is what's required. And so we're stepping up and getting it done. That guy is knee deep in dong money. You be careful now. For some 50 people, including public officials. Cheers! All right! I first showed... Oh, yeah. Brian Acevedo is on video with Andy Dong doing shots in Vietnam. Because why not? Cheers! Yeah! All right! I first showed you video of Azevedo toasting the entourage. Prosecutors say the scheme soon hashed that Azevedo would help the Duong family with their new company, Evolutionary Homes. This is why you need someone with integrity at the attorney general's office, because you think this is the only scam involving homeless housing in the state of California? There are so many of these going on all at the same time. Who do you think gets these contracts for tiny homes or shipping container homes? Turns out it was one of the most corrupt families in the state of California for the contract in Alameda County. This is the tip of the iceberg. And note that it was the feds that uncovered it. A combination of the Biden administration and the Trump administration. But the attorney general of the state of California, he just let it go on. that Azevedo would help the Duong family. Well, and let's not forget that in the middle of all of this investigation, Rob Bonta spends $450,000 of his own campaign cash to hire lawyers to, quote, assist the FBI. Yeah, well, because they allegedly have a tape that is incriminating for Rob Bonta. That was said by an FBI informant. and Rob Bonta is treading very, very carefully with this one because who knows if there's a video of him doing shots with the Dongs, singing Kiss by Prince over at karaoke night, or maybe something more illicit than that. Well, and if you remember the timeline, it was days after Shang Tao got indicted that Rob Bonta, who had been launching a massive whisper campaign that he was going to run for governor and was raising money, all of a sudden said, no, I'm not running for governor. What do you think could potentially be on that video that's incriminating? Oh, I don't want to speculate. Well, I mean, at this point, nothing shocks us. So unless it him dressed up like little Bo Peep with a ruler I don think it going to raise an eyebrow No no no no no You went too far. That's your first strike. Two more, and I'm going to take the story away from you. Uh-oh. You be nice. Public airwaves. That Azevedo would help the Duong family. Now I've got to edit that out of the best of. put a big old bleep in it that azavito would help the duong family with their new company evolutionary homes to sell containers for the homeless to the city of san leandro azavito would get a percentage and i i can't even believe the figures here a shipping container somehow refurbished into a homeless shelter costs $300,000? What would it cost to put a bum in a room at the Hampton Inn for 365 nights? Well, for Karen Bass, it's about $17,000 a month per person. What about if you just booked it on Hotels.com? By the way, in case you were wondering, an empty shipping container can cost between $1,500 and $5,000. So that is a massive return on investment because what exactly are you doing to the shipping container? Putting a bed in it and a microwave? Well, here's the worst part. We would be spending a fortune on these shipping containers to put the homeless in, and we're not even going to be putting those containers on a ship to China. He started an LLC in his wife's name to hide the transactions and accepted a $2,000 bribe from the Duong's to fund it. You think that marriage is going to last? Not a chance. I asked Azevedo about that exact thing last April. Was there some arrangement between you and the Duong's in terms of we'll give you a percentage if you sell X number of units? I don't remember nothing now. Wrong answer. This will go down as, and there have been so many moments in Dan Noyes' interviews on Bay Area TV over the years, like when Gavin Newsom freaked out at him when he started asking about his drinking problem. But this might be one of the best on-camera moments of Dan Noyes' incredible storied career. If you sell X number of units. I don't remember nothing, no. For you to say, I don't remember, is not going to look good for people. I mean, clearly, me as a person. I don't want to comment on that because, no, there was no arrangement on that. How is this guy smart enough to tie his shoes? I don't remember nothing now. Well, turns out he remembered something. Good for him. He's pled guilty. San Leandro Mayor Juan Gonzalez released a video statement late today saying the city council will move to fill Azevedo's seat next week. The sacred trust between you as the voter and us as electeds, that trust serves as the foundation for democracy. And today's apparently Acevedo tried to run this deal up the flagpole to the mayor. And they're like, I don't think about that. I don't think we're going to go with that one. Well, just think about how difficult it's going to be to fill his shoes on that council. Who's the next dumbest person in San Leandro? And today's admission by Councilmember Azevedo represents a violation of that trust. Azevedo was now cooperating as a witness for the government and has a sentencing date for December. Okay, so now we've got a cooperating witness that was on the Vietnam trip. This trial for Shang starts in April if it doesn't get delayed again, and it is going to be interesting. What do you think he told them about Shang? you know um absolutely what do you think she was doing in vietnam and has a sentencing date for december while the charges call for 20 years he will get a much lighter sentence especially with his cooperation dan and ama okay dan thanks so much so there you go that is the big update as we have our first guilty plea in the shang tao corruption case shang is still awaiting trial the dong family is still awaiting trial and who knows what other cards are going to show up in this thing who else is going to be a part of this this case is nowhere near from being over and shang appears to be dumb enough to try to fight this in court who's paying for that lawyer she doesn't have a job i don't even think she can afford a remedial lawyer. Do you see, by the way, and we haven't, I've been waiting for a story to cover this, that the, um, it's happened yet again. The Coliseum deal has fallen through again. She has no income. Her entire plan was to go work for that group that bought the Coliseum. That fell apart. How could she pay the bill for the lawyer? Poor Shangy. For every two restaurants that are closing, we know 50 more are coming on board. No, it wasn't true. Is there special ed in law school? And he said, absolutely. Because if so, that's where her attorney is coming from. I can get that. Oh, she's going to prison for a long time. Like, don't waste our time. We have a whole city to run. Now, what she does have going for her is she's so dumb, she probably doesn't even know it. so nobody tell her. Just pretend like everything's going to be all right. Not just healthy, but we are prosperous in regards to our economic development. Man, I needed a Shang update. Trials coming soon. You know what this reminds me of? What's that? You know how every so often there are shows that have special guest stars? They bring back someone from a different era. They used to do that on the Lucy Desi Comedy Hour where Bob Hope would be on. Or you'd bring in Fernando Lamas or some headliner would do a guest bit on the show. And then they bring in their audience. I feel like Shang is a special guest celebrity star today. she was a regular cast member of this show for all of 2023 and all of 2024 and she really just became a featured player in 2025 so this is quite the guest cameo we're getting in 2026 i'll tell you they should bring back the hollywood squares just to put her on how are you shake your hand yes it's been amazing okay shang here's the question finish the sentence the Nina, the Pinta, and the what, Chang? And he said, absolutely. The Carnival Jubilee. Mike Trott, hosted by former Navy SEAL Mike Ridland. What does it mean to be an American? To be American is you love your country above all else. I love this country. I was born here, raised here. I offered my life to serve this country. And if you don't do your part to preserve what we have here and our culture, it's going to be gone. And we can't let that happen. Yeah, that's Mike Drop. Mike Drop. Follow and listen on your favorite platform. Let's go to Mark in San Diego. Mark, hello. Hey, John. Yeah, the shipping container is not a bad idea. I worked on one once. It can be converted. and the one I worked on, I think they spent about $50,000 or $60,000 on top of the $1,500. I don't know how much they paid for the container. But then you're talking about amenities, the land you have to set it on, and the hookups. I mean, I'm being real about it. Homeless people are probably not going to want to stay there. But a cool thing about it is you could pick it up and throw it on a semi and take it somewhere else. and uh it's the cost of the land and and uh what whatever utilities you're going to hook up to it the cost of those on a monthly basis is bigger now on the inside of these containers do they split them up into different rooms or do they put the toilet next to the stove next to the christmas tree well the one i did was of office so um they had they split it up into room the bathroom and And there was actually a shipping container is pretty big. It's over 300 square feet. And in the back, they put in a big generator. So we had to modify it structurally so it could be picked up and moved around. Thank you for the call, sir. Randy, you want some of that sweet action? Still sounds like they were going to profit like $150K on each shipping container. 800-222-5222 is telephone number 1-800-222-5222. Well, we know here in California, unlike other states the individual who is married to the governor is not known as the first lady She known as the first partner But as we learned yesterday she neither the first lady nor the first partner Her actual title is the first Karen, because that's how she acted at the press conference with Ashley Zavala. So yesterday, Gavin Newsom's at a press conference with Planned Parenthood and Jen Newsom because the federal government cut like a whole bunch of funding. so gavin says hey we're doing better than we thought we're going to give you 90 million dollars and he had a signing ceremony gavin when he holds a press conference this is the only opportunity local reporters have access to him he does not do local interviews and he does not hold general press conferences where he just takes questions so if you have a question about high-speed rail about the refineries closing, about the budget deficit, what have you, this is your only opportunity to ask. I don't know how many questions there needed to be about this, but Jen Sebald-Newsom got so mad that all the questions were, quote, off-topic, she decided to chastise the mostly female reporters in the room, declaring them a part of the problem on the war on women. Well, she cut Gavin off, too. She wouldn't even let him answer the question. So I guess this press conference about Planned Parenthood, nothing was carried to term. You be careful here. For more, here's KCRA 3 and Ashley Zavala. California will provide $90 million in state taxpayer funds to Planned Parenthood. The government approved this today. At the bill signing, his wife, first partner, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, lashed out at journalists. KCRA 3's political... And by the way, the timing of this couldn't be better because a very, very, very flattering profile, a 30-minute sit-down piece called Keeping Up with the Newsoms was put on by Bloomberg, where they went to the Newsoms' home and they talked about their family life. And she's such a sweet and wonderful person. And then the same day that that drops on YouTube, we find out who the real Jen is. Oh, yes. KCOA3's political director, Ashley Zavala, explains what happened. Governor Gavin Newsom hosted this press conference, which was really a bill signing to sign off on $90 million in grants to help Planned Parenthood amid federal funding cuts and after clinics have had to close, especially in Northern California. But this is one of the few opportunities that journalists in the California Capitol Press Corps get to ask the governor questions. And so outside of when Alex Michelson was on Fox 11, there are no local outlets that Gavin Newsom does interviews with. No, he does the national podcasts. He'll go on the left wing late night shows. Occasionally he'll pop up on cable news. He was a surrogate for Joe Biden during the campaign. So he would talk to national outlets about the presidential campaign. but if you are a California reporter who has a question about a California issue, they don't have time for you. Questions. And so a lot of the questions after that bill signing revolved around other topics. For example, I asked about the high-speed rail and what's going on. You know, specifically that $500 million mystery settlement and the bill going through the assembly to make the high-speed rail even less transparent. Shouldn't we know what the governor thinks about that? Well, maybe what you have to do is just get creative with your language. Hey, Gavin, when are you going to abort the bullet train? You're in a mood today. Kind of. For example, I asked about the high-speed rail and what's going on there. So at some point, about 10 minutes into Q&A, the first partner had this to say. We just find it incredulous that we have Planned Parenthood here and women are 51 percent of the population. And the majority of the questions, all of these questions have really been about other issues. From women who are reporters who are covering the issues that are more important going on in the state. Wait, isn't this the crowd who thinks that guys can get pregnant, too? We just find it incredulous that we have Planned Parenthood here. And women are 51% of the population. And the majority of the questions, all of these questions have really been about other issues. So it's just fascinating. You have this incredible women's caucus and all these allies. Incredible women's caucus? Yeah. Well, is there anything incredible about the California state legislature right now? And you're not asking about it. And this happens over and over and over and over again. You wonder why we have such a horrific war on women in this country. okay i think i know why gavin turns on the fox news yeah you have to do something to drown her out i wonder why he's out of town all the time you know he's going to germany boy she's pretty and she's rich the only thing he can't do is get her to close her mouth a horrific war on women in this country and that these guys are getting away with it because you don't seem to care so I just offer that by the way there were a couple of questions about this but yes then you move on to the other topics because this is your only time where you can ask the governor of the state a question well and you look at the makeup of that capital press corps most of them are ladies most of them are women and they're just they're trying to do their jobs and what happens they get beat down by the governor's wife on television these are your incredible women in this room and you have these allies ask about what we're here for today don't you think after that only one on topic planned parenthood related question was asked and then more off-topic questions followed by the way gavin went back to answering whatever questions were asked of him in the gavin way where he doesn't really give you a full answer But he was not he did not have a thing to say. You could tell that he was embarrassed as hell in that moment. Well, think about it. If it's rude and impolite to ask questions or to focus on topics that are off topic, what does he spend all of his time doing? He was elected to be the governor of the state of California, and he won't talk about California. He'll talk about people running for president. He'll talk about people in the United States Congress. He'll talk about the current United States president. He'll talk about various federal departments. He doesn't want to talk about the subjects that he was elected to deal with. I should note that most of the journalists in the room were women. Reporting at the state capitol, Ashley Zavala, KCRA 3 News. And as soon as that came out yesterday and Ashley Zavala posted the video and it went everywhere. We talked about it minutes after it happened. every prominent reporter in the state has posted about it and they are you know as much as we want to say that you know the press corps in california is in lockstep with gavin and the party they're all going after gavin and they're all going after jen including friend of the show julie watts from cbs sacramento she tweeted out ca governor if you would agree to sit down for interviews with california reporters we might not have to ask off-topic questions that pressures hashtag just saying well it takes a special kind of person to be a political spouse where you have to think it's a good idea to marry a psychopath i mean look at that woman that married tim walls i don't know what's wrong with her but she ain't right every time i see that woman on tv i think her purse must look like graceland i miss the old days when all the political spouses were just blowing a point two all day can't we go back to betty ford well he did he tried that with the first wife i'll tell you they didn't get elected to anything what is she even doing there i guess she feels that she has such close proximity to the governor so she has a right to be on stage opining on issues maybe she's shooting another documentary that Gavin's going to sell to the donors. Usually, doesn't the spouse just focus on non-controversial subjects? Like literacy or just say no? She wants to get more involved. Again, this all dropped the exact same day as this 30-minute sit-down interview with Jen and Gavin on Bloomberg where they're talking about their family life, they're talking about the kids, And, well, the real Jen's a little different than was portrayed in that profile. Oh, yeah. Well, can you imagine if someone was asking questions honestly? Hey Gavin what going through your mind when you having a press conference and the old lady has Tourette She kind of whispered in his ear and you can really hear it but it sure seems like she like let me handle this and she pushes him out of the way oh yeah what a woman mike drop hosted by former navy seal mike ridland what does it mean to be an american The American is you love your country above all else. I love this country. I was born here, raised here. I offered my life to serve this country. And if you don't do your part to preserve what we have here and our culture, it's going to be gone. And we can't let that happen. Yeah, that's Mike Drop. Mike Drop. Follow and listen on your favorite platform. Coming up later on in the program, we're going to check in with Walter Moore, who was a candidate for mayor back in 2009, did much better than anyone expected him to do. He's going to have a lot of advice for Spencer Pratt, who is now running for mayor himself, a first-time candidate. And you're going to love to hear from Walter Moore, a man who has a PhD in running against the machine in Los Angeles. But first, there's now a gubernatorial simulation of sorts. Paul Mitchell, the guy behind the Prop 50 maps, He's also the guy behind the ballot trackers. He has come out with a new website where you put in all of the data of all the latest polling from all of the candidates for governor. And it gives you the percentage chance of your favorite top two making it into the runoff in November. And currently that simulator shows for all the people wondering if it's possible. there is a 12% chance that it could be two Republicans in the runoff because there's so many people running for governor. Not a huge chance, but a 12% chance is something. What was that line from Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber? So you're saying there's a chance. I think it was Jim Carrey, but yes. You're right, yeah. For more, here's CBS Sacramento. Forecasting the future leader of California with so many candidates and no clear frontrunner in the race for governor, two Republicans now leading in the polls in this, as you know, heavily Democratic state. In tonight's Politics at Large, Steve is live in the newsroom with the likelihood both Republicans could end up, Steve, facing each other in the general election. We are talking California, correct? Right, yeah, this is a very unexpected situation. Democrat stronghold California has a top two primary coming up. And now there's a new tool to stimulate just how likely a Republican versus Republican election could actually be. And they've got a really fun graphic because it's got all the candidates with their faces superimposed on the movie poster for twins. And so whoever's in first place is Arnold and whoever's in second place is Danny DeVito. If you're in third place, are you Rhea Perlman? It may be small, but based on your tool, there's a chance. There's a chance. Yeah, there is a chance. It's Paul Mitchell's political simulation creation. You see the pie chart thing? The Democrat data expert, who also helped draw Prop 50 redistricting lines, launching this top two primary simulator, showing the chance of any candidate combination winning or twinning, to borrow his tool's title, the California governor. Get it? Twinning? Twins? I thought Paul Mitchell sold shampoo and conditioner. Different Paul Mitchell. The California governor's race primary. The tool shows the likelihood of a Republican versus Republican runoff is 12 percent right now. I mean, if you'd ask any of the gubernatorial candidates, they'll tell you a lot of their supporters come to them and say, oh, my gosh, can two Republicans make the runoff? It's kind of the biggest parlor game in Sacramento right now is people predicting what's going to happen. You know, my caution to although the candidates themselves are trying to make sure that doesn't happen. Is Steve Hilton's going to war with Bianca over taking a knee during the BLM riots? Oh, yeah. And let me tell you, right now, I don't see many of these candidates dropping out of the race because they're all bunched together. Think about this. If you have a poll where the margin of error is plus or minus four and a half points or three and a half points, that's essentially, depending on which one you're looking at, a seven point or a nine point swing. If you're polling at 4%, you're statistically tied with whoever it is that's in second place. Why in the world would you ever call it quits? You know, my caution to Republicans, though, on that is we should then expect that governor to immediately be recalled. Yes, the party of democracy is going to get a result they don't like from a system they created. And if that happens, the old government is going to replace the new government with someone that they choose. There's going to be another recall, you say. And you know that if this ever did happen, it would be the day that the California legislature ends the top two primary system. Oh, 100 percent. Republican strategist Rob Stutzman says a Republican only runoff would likely not end well for his party. Democrats who are still a two to one majority, more or less, maybe a little less than that, depending on the candidates in the state will obviously say, hey, this is a fluke. Trump's still president. We need to resist him. And I think you'd see a recall that would be very similar to the Prop 50. Chad Bianco and we're going to by the way, if that's what the Republican strategists are saying, it's easy to see why Republicans can't win anything in California. we do crime stories from people who are the victim of crimes over and over and over again and this guy still sounds more like a defeatist than they do well there is a lot of bad consultants and a lot of shady consultants who are constantly telling republicans to run for office in california but just think about that philosophy that he just gave us oh it would be bad for you to win because then you just probably get kicked out at some point in the future so don't you go winning i mean come on who needs that chad bianco and steve hilton are the two leading republicans in the race for now with a field of nine democrats fracturing their own support they're all that's nine that are not counted as the gadfly candidates No, isn't there like 30 or 40 people running? There always is, but most of them, no one's ever heard of. They have no chance. They just put their name on there. And every so often, you get people who have no chance, but people know who they are. Like, remember during the recall election the first time, God rest his soul, Gary Coleman ran. So did Mary Carey, the porn actress. Larry Flint, my buddy. They're all splitting up that pie so finely that their polling numbers are actually looking like they're maybe not even going to make the runoff. This election cycle simulator giving a new glimpse into the race for governor. Really interesting stuff. This is all happening because there's no clear front runner in this race. Not yet. I'll tell you, what will this AI think of next? You know what I do sometimes, Randy? What's that? I've been using AI myself when I'm sitting in front of an Ultimate X video poker machine and I'm playing my 10 hands you know if you're not sure what you should do because sometimes there are plays that you're supposed to do if you're just playing regular jacks or better video poker but if you're playing Ultimate X you're not supposed to you're supposed to do something else and so you can take a picture of the screen plug it into the AI and the AI will tell you what to do. And how often is the AI right? Well, I mean, I'm still working, so I haven't hit the jackpot yet. But statistically speaking, I think you'll end up making the right move. So you're sitting there on a cruise ship holding your phone, taking pictures of the video poker machine just so you can get an edge. John, you need to go to a meeting. Oh, yeah. No, I have a cocktail in one hand. I've got my phone that I'm taking pictures with in the other hand, and then I'm plugging it into the AI. And it doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes a minute. So then I start a conversation with the person sitting next to me because I have time to kill. If you are facing a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER. Dan Bongino returns. It's real. You better produce something fast. And he's not holding back. Dan, that's backwards. No, I'm telling you the truth. Hard truths and a bold perspective no one else can offer. You may not hear this anywhere else. I'm always under the assumption that you're being played, we're being played. Man, this show continues to expand its footprint. I love you guys for it. It's the comeback everyone's been waiting for. If there was ever a time, it is this one. The Dan Bongino Show. Follow and listen on your favorite platform.