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And today on the show, President Trump is heading to China for a visit that could touch on many of the biggest issues facing the global economy right now, including the ongoing conflict in Iran and an ongoing arms race around artificial intelligence. So Mara, I want to start with the power dynamic between the United States and China, because President Trump is somebody who is keenly aware of leverage. How do you think he is heading into this meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping? Well, Donald Trump likes to say people either have some cards or they have no cards. I would say right now she has more cards than Trump. Trump has been weakened by the war in Iran, which is unpopular at home. Donald Trump, in order to prosecute the war on Iran, pulled a lot of U.S. military assets out of the Pacific, leaving the United States' allies like South Korea nervous. He is very eager, or he seems very eager to get out of the war because it's causing gas prices to go up at home, and that's a political problem for his party. Also, the Supreme Court stopped him from imposing some really big tariffs on China, which was a point of leverage for Trump, but now he has less. And not to mention the fact that Xi has an almost global monopoly on rare earths. And we've seen that come up in the past when Trump put big tariffs on China. China said, okay, we won't send you any rare earths, and then Trump back down and lowered the tariffs. And one further thing from gas prices being high, it means that more countries are looking at renewables, and guess who leads in renewables globally, China. So lots of cards for Xi, less cards for Trump. Well, Deepa, you were with Trump the last time he met with Xi in South Korea last fall. How do you see this meeting right now compared to that one? I mean, you have to keep in mind at that time, this was the fall of last year in October. Tensions were so high between the US and China, it had been high for months. Because of the tariff for that Trump started, there had been so much back and forth. And this meeting in South Korea was really high stakes, because a lot of people weren't really sure what was going to come out of it. The main assessment was that it was just an opportunity to cool down some of those tensions. And that is effectively what happened. There weren't really any deliverables from the meeting, it was just this commitment to meet again, which is what's happening this week, right? Later on this year, Xi Jinping will come to the US and to cool down some of the tensions over this tariff war. Coming into this meeting, those tensions aren't as high, but as Mara pointed out, Trump is coming at this from a much different position than roughly six months ago in that last meeting. And the global predicament has changed. War with Iran, multiple other conflicts around the world are ongoing. Trump is someone who considers himself a peacemaking president, but that hasn't really been working in his favor. And he's coming into this meeting at a point where he might need China's help. Lay that out a little bit more in terms of the reasons that President Trump could need China's help. Well, the war in Iran plays a huge role in all of this, right? This meeting was delayed by almost two months because of the war in Iran. It was supposed to happen in March, and then this war started and that was supposed to wrap up in about six to eight weeks. And it still hasn't, right? This is ongoing. It's been very politically bad for Trump and his party. He's getting really bad marks on the economy, on affordability when it comes to gas prices, just on the US's role in in Iran and on the global stage in general. All of the polling shows bad signs for Trump. And China has a good bit of influence on Iran here. We don't know exactly what's going to happen in this meeting, right? This is us kind of trying to look at our sources and the analysis that we have to sort of see what might happen. But Trump has floated the idea of asking China to help him end the war with Iran, to get Iran to come on board with some of the US proposals here and try to get this conflict to end because it's really spelling out bad signs for Trump here at home in the US. Mara, any thoughts on what China might want in return for that help? Deep is right. We don't know what's going to happen. Trump is very unpredictable. But we do know that in the past, the Chinese have wanted, they've had a long time goal, of getting the US to change its diplomatic language around Taiwanese independence. Right now, the US currently, quote, is not supporting Taiwanese independence. What China would like is to change that language to the US saying it, quote, opposes Taiwanese independence. That sounds like splitting hairs, but in diplomacy, it matters. I mean, do you see that as a realistic possibility? I'm thinking about how much softer the United States stands on Russia's aggression in Ukraine since Trump's second term started, the way that Trump has talked about kind of glowingly about Xi Jinping's power in China. I don't know. We have no... I was just trying to look at all of that and see that as a real possibility, do you think? There have been critics of Trump who said his seeming accommodation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine would lead him to also be accommodating if China wanted to take over Taiwan anytime soon, because he feels it was the United States' right to take over Greenland or invade Venezuela, or now he's talking about Cuba being next. So yes, that's a possibility. We certainly don't know if that's what's going to happen with these meetings, but we know that he's also been very admiring of the style of leadership of the two dictators of the other two superpowers, Putin and Xi. I'll just add on to that. I mean, Trump is a president who likes to talk about everything under the sun. There are very few topics that we don't hear about from this president. And when I was traveling with him in Asia last year, Taiwan came up a number of times just trying to get a sense of what is this administration's stance? What does this president believe when it comes to Taiwan? And he doesn't want to talk about it. He doesn't answer those questions. He always diverts. So it's pretty significant in Mars, right, and that we don't really know what might happen in this meeting. But it is something to say that the president doesn't want to answer questions about this. As opposed to Biden, who said that we would come to the aid militarily of Taiwan if China made a move. So very, very different approaches. One more, much more accommodating to a big superpower that has a dictator running it and the other much less accommodating. So then thinking about why President Trump is even taking this trip at all at a time when, as you kind of laid out, Mara, the United States standing or his standing from a leveraged perspective seems weakened. What do you think he is hoping to accomplish with this meeting? Well, I think he wants to get some deliverables. He wants to come out and say, China's going to help end the war or China bought a lot of soybeans. That's what's happened in the past, although sometimes those deals don't come through. Maybe he just loves the pomp and circumstance of meeting with world leaders, just like he did in Helsinki with Putin and nothing came of that. Yes, I was just going to say the pomp and circumstance is a big part of this in the last couple of weeks as this trip has been, you know, on the horizon and coming up and Trump has taken questions about it, you know, for starters, I think he considers Xi to be a strong leader. And as we know, Trump loves a strong, quote unquote, in his definition leader, right? That includes Putin. That includes someone like Xi Jinping. He considers him like almost like a friend. And the way he talks about him is with a lot of respect and reverence. And so leading up to this trip, he, you know, even said the last time I went to China, you know, there was the big red carpet rolled out for me. And he does love the pomp and circumstance. And when he visited Asia last year, that certain, that red carpet was certainly rolled out for him. It was a lot of a lot of celebration, a lot of these countries, several Asian countries catering to him and his needs. And so he is kind of looking for some of that too. Although as we pointed out repeatedly, the circumstances are very different leading into this meeting. I'm not sure if he's going to get that same reception that he maybe had in his first term. Deepa, you alluded a second ago to just the fact that everything around this trip seems to be in flux. We're still kind of gathering details even up to the moment when the president leaves. But what can you tell us about what we know is on the agenda? Has the White House said anything about what is on the agenda? We don't have an exact agenda from this administration, but there's certainly points that the U.S. wants to bring to the table. Talking about tariffs, talking about the economy, certainly talking about technology. That's something that really stood out to me that artificial intelligence is really something that they're hoping to talk about. Whether there are any deliverables on that, different question. But the fact that the U.S. and China want to sit down together and actually have a conversation about global security and open channels of communication maybe when it comes to the development of this technology really signals a shift in where things are with how AI is being discussed and developed on a global stage. So that is something to watch for. The other thing I'll point out, Miles, is that there are several business leaders from the U.S. who are part of this U.S. delegation that are going to China with the president. That includes people like Tim Cook, the Apple CEO, several banking officials. Elon Musk is coming. It's an interesting glean into where some of the priorities lie with this administration and the umph that they're hoping to show when they land in Beijing. All right. Let's take a quick break and more on this trip in just a moment. This message comes from WISE, the app for international people using money around the globe. You can send, spend, and receive an up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Be smart. Get WISE. Download the WISE app today or visit wis.com. Teas and seas apply. We flush a lot of things down the toilet. You know, the obvious ones. But drugs like cocaine are also going down the drain and into our waterways. That's changing the animals that live in it. It's definitely present in most ecosystems on earth now, unfortunately. We're only sort of really starting to scratch the surface and do understanding the potential consequences of that. Forget cocaine bear. Learn about cocaine salmon on shortwave in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. And welcome back. So we've talked about what the United States hopes to get out of this meeting between President Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping. But what about China? I mean, can you all tell me a little bit more about what that country is hoping to gain from this meeting? Well, first of all, it would like to have a kind of stabilized relationship with the United States, but in terms of the war in Iran, the war in Iran is bad for every single country in the world. And recently, the Iranian foreign minister visited China. China is an ally of Iran, as is Russia. And it'll be interesting to see how involved China wants to get in stopping the war. Now, apparently, it has been involved with Pakistan's effort to start peace talks. But China would like this war to end just like almost every other country in the world would. I would say also just on a broader level. And this was something that came up in the meeting with Trump and Xi last year as well. There was so much volatility around the tariffs. And Trump was posting on Truth Social every day, every other day, changing numbers. It was really chaotic. You guys remember that. And China and Xi serve as that foil in a way to Trump on this global stage. They kind of have this position of seeming to be more stable than Trump and the U.S. And we're kind of back in that same situation with the war in Iran. Trump making all these decisions, the war we're supposed to end in six to eight weeks. It's not. There's a ceasefire, but we still might bomb them. There's a lot of volatility still in regards to that era of the global stage. And I think China stands to maybe benefit from this meeting just coming out of it looking more stable, even though they're also, as Mara said, hurting in this war. Yeah, but they're deep as right. I mean, China is offering itself as the more stable, reasonable, predictable superpower. They're in effect saying, Donald Trump is unpredictable, but stick with us and you'll know what you're going to get. Yeah. So even if they get nothing, even if there are no deliverables for China coming out of this meeting, they still look more stable than the U.S. in some ways. Yeah, that makes sense, like an optics thing, just by just the contrast against Trump and the war. Yeah. So many of these meetings. I mean, these meetings are so short. Sometimes they can go on for hours, don't get me wrong. But these moments on the global stage are so short. There's so much about the photo op, the red carpet, like we talked about. The optics are so, so important here. And I think that's going to be a big part of this week. Well, you've also reported specifically, Deepa, on the artificial intelligence angle of this trip. Can you explain a little bit more about what specifically you expect to be discussed on AI? Yes, I love talking about this. Okay. So basically what I think is really interesting is the fact that there is a decent chunk. Again, we don't know what's exactly going to happen in this meeting, but right now it seems like there's a decent chunk of time being dedicated to talking about AI. And the fact that these two superpowers, the biggest innovators and developers on AI on the global front, the U.S. and China, are sitting down together to potentially talk about open channels of communication. When it comes to this technology, I think is really significant. And a lot of experts I talked to would agree. Where things stand right now is that Trump, you know, last week said something along the lines of, I'm going to go to China and I'm going to tell Xi Jinping that the U.S. is leading on AI. And a lot of experts I talked to said that that's not untrue. The U.S. is leading on AI in some regards. And in that area, it's, you know, these models, like what open AI is creating, what Anthropa is creating, what Google is creating, those frontier models are better than what China has. And that lead is about six to 12 months. But there are areas where China is doing a lot better on AI when it comes to what they call diffusion and adoption of this technology, how much it's integrated into their society, how much it's being used on an everyday level in healthcare and government services and education and things like that. And that's kind of where the U.S. is lagging behind. So I think that's something really interesting to watch, especially on a political front, because there's a lot of skepticism from the American public about AI. And politically, it's not really going well for Trump, who up until this point has been really supportive of tech companies, doesn't want to wrangle them in in any way, doesn't want regulations around the technology. And politically, that's kind of not going well for him. So I'm curious to see what kind of comes out of this meeting as this administration is warming up to the idea of talking about safety and security a little bit more. Yeah, I feel like I love that there was a quote from an expert, I think, in the piece you had on Morning Edition, Deepa, where the person was basically like, China might not have the highest scale upscale TV, but not everybody needs an upscale TV, right? And like being in that middle tier, and if you're just more easily applicable to more industries, then that actually could be an advantage too. Yeah, definitely. So what you're saying is China has managed to inject AI into people's everyday lives, whereas the US is more advanced on the big generative AI, AI that's smarter than humans. Yeah, there's a little bit of both and, and there's certainly elements where AI is in our everyday lives here in the US as well, right? But that more like how deeply integrated it is, is something that China to this point is doing better at. And they also talked to a couple folks who were talking about like creation of like human robots, right? And like China's really big on that and really into using that and manufacturing and things like that. So there are just different elements of this conversation. But you guys were talking about Taiwan earlier, that's also something that might come up in this meeting because where are all the AI chips manufactured that the US uses, right? And does China have access to that? Should China have access to that? Might be part of this conversation as well. Well, then you add in the fact that there's this ongoing, brewing political conundrum of the data centers that are needed to power AI. And in America, that is quickly becoming a massive problem for it, right? Yeah. Yeah. China doesn't seem to just China just not have that problem in the same way. They don't really have the same public pushback, you could say. It's a political problem for Trump and it's an interesting political space because both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to sort of try and define the narrative on AI. And right now, neither of them really are. But at the same time, this growing level of pushback and it's not just... Well, the pushback is bipartisan. The pushback is bipartisan. And I will say it's not just like pushback to data centers in and of itself, but I think it also represents a skepticism and a worry about jobs, right? And job replacement and just being scared about what this technology and the fact that it's not regulated in this country, what that means for our future. And so this administration, I mean, hates the word safety. Up until literally a couple weeks ago, they didn't even want to use the word safety when it came to AI. The Biden administration had an Institute of AI safety. The Trump administration changed the name to take the word safety out. This was like definitely not something they were interested in talking about. But in the last couple of weeks, you know, as this public sentiment against AI grows and as there are more, you know, dangerous models that are created and potentially getting released, this question of security and safety and regulations are really back on the table. Mara, big picture, I guess. Where do you see the U.S.-China relationship going from here? This is supposed to be the first of four meetings this year between Trump and Xi Jinping. Yeah. I mean, I think it could go in any number of directions. They could end up cooperating on AI and on ending the war in Iran, or Donald Trump could double down on tariffs and Xi could double down on withholding rare earths. Remember, right now we think the U.S. is leading in some by some measurements on AI, but they are lagging on rare earths. The U.S. has basically no capacity to process rare earths. So I think it's a big question. I think very little could come out or something cooperative, or it could just leave all the tensions in place. We truly don't know. All right. Well, we can leave it there for today. Lots to watch over the next couple of days in China. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House. And I'm Mara Eliasen, senior national political correspondent. And thank you for listening to the Empire Politics Podcast. For poor people in one of the world's fastest growing mega cities, development means displacement and violence. We're homeless now. Know what you're saying. Know what you're saying. On the Sunday Story, the human cost of building Lagos, Nigeria into the Dubai of Africa. Listen now to the Sunday Story from the Up First Podcast on the NPR app.
