IndieWire: Screen Talk

Oscar Nomination Reactions & Winner Predictions

39 min
Jan 23, 20263 months ago
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Summary

IndieWire's Screen Talk podcast hosts Anne Thompson and Marcus Jones analyze the 2025 Oscar nominations, providing category-by-category predictions for winners. They discuss the strength of films like 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' as Best Picture frontrunners, while noting Netflix's strong showing with 18 nominations and the Academy's efforts to diversify winners.

Insights
  • Netflix received 18 nominations but needs actual wins rather than just nominations to establish credibility
  • International voters may favor different films than American guild voters, potentially shifting momentum in final voting phases
  • The Academy is actively monitoring viewing to ensure voters see all nominated films, representing a new technological oversight approach
  • Black directors remain unrepresented in Best Director wins, creating ongoing narrative pressure for recognition
  • Craft categories often serve as consolation prizes for films that don't win major categories
Trends
Streaming platforms competing directly with traditional studios for prestige awardsAcademy implementing technology to track voter engagement with nominated filmsInternational voting bloc gaining influence in Oscar outcomesIncreased focus on diversity and representation in major categoriesBrazilian filmmakers forming a notable voting bloc within the AcademyCasting directors gaining prominence as new Oscar category creates visibilityVisual effects standards declining in 2025 according to industry observersDocumentary branch favoring innovative technological approaches in filmmaking
Companies
Netflix
Received 18 Oscar nominations but needs wins to establish credibility beyond just accumulating nominations
IndieWire
Media company producing the Screen Talk podcast analyzing Oscar nominations and predictions
Gold Derby
Sister site at Penske Media where hosts make their Oscar predictions and rankings
Penske Media
Parent company of both IndieWire and Gold Derby entertainment industry publications
Disney
Traditional animation powerhouse that Netflix is challenging in the animated feature category
Pixar
Animation studio that has historically dominated the animated feature category since 2000
Sony
Originally made K Pop Demon Hunters before selling it to Netflix in controversial deal
Warner Brothers
Studio behind One Battle After Another, prioritizing it as major Oscar contender
Neon
Distribution company that tied with Netflix for most Oscar nominations at 18
IFC
Released The Ugly Stepsister which received makeup and hairstyling nomination
People
Anne Thompson
IndieWire host analyzing Oscar nominations from Los Angeles office
Marcus Jones
IndieWire awards editor co-hosting the Oscar nominations analysis episode
Ryan Coogler
Director of Sinners, predicted to win Original Screenplay as potential consolation prize
Paul Thomas Anderson
Director with 11 Oscar nominations across categories, predicted to finally win Best Director
Timothee Chalamet
Actor predicted to win Best Actor despite hosts noting his less enthusiastic campaign demeanor
Jessie Buckley
Actress considered the clear frontrunner for Best Actress with seemingly no competition
Stellan Skarsgard
Veteran actor predicted to win Best Supporting Actor for Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor
Actress predicted to win Best Supporting Actress, praised for handling campaign well
James Cameron
Director of Avatar: Fire and Ash, predicted to win Visual Effects despite only two nominations
Kate Hudson
Surprise Best Actress nominee who ran extensive campaign with high-profile supporters
Quotes
"Netflix can count on this to be a winner and they need to win a few Oscars this year instead of just racking up nominations and going home empty handed"
Marcus Jones
"The fact that a black director has not won Best Director is ever present. I've pre written so many articles about so and so becomes the first black filmmaker to win Best Director"
Marcus Jones
"This is the consolation prize, as it always is for black filmmakers"
Anne Thompson
"The number of nominations is irrelevant. There have been movies like Lincoln or whatever. You know, they got like 11 nominations and won two"
Anne Thompson
"One of the things that was true this year was that they were monitoring everyone to make sure they saw everything. So that's a new technological wrinkle"
Anne Thompson
Full Transcript
2 Speakers
Speaker A

Welcome to Screen Talk, Indiewire's weekly podcast that brings you up to speed with the goings on in Hollywood. I'm Anne Thompson in Los Angeles.

0:06

Speaker B

Hello, I'm Marcus Jones also in Los Angeles.

0:16

Speaker A

You're in the office. I'm at home. We both got up at 5:30 this morning to deal with the nominations and we both filed our respective stories about it. So Marcus is our awards editor, Marcus Jones. Ryan Lattanzio, my co host, is up in Sundance. But we're going to go through on Gold Derby, our sister site at Penske Media. We're going to go through all the 24 categories, believe it or not. Don't sign off. It'll be fun. On Gold Derby this morning, they have put up all the new nominations. And so you have to go in and pick what, what your, you know, the order that you want them to be in to, you know, the winner at the top and so forth. So we're going to do that. We're going to skip the shorts. We'll deal with the shorts later. But we're going to start with international film. And I am going to say based on the fact that it had nine nominations so far today, I'm going to including best picture, director, a screenplay and actors all over the place. Stellan Skarsgrd, Renat Rensvi, the two supporting actresses, which is a great big sign of strength. Elle Fanning and Inge's daughter Lilias. Sentimental Value is gonna be the front runner in international. What do you think is the second one?

0:20

Speaker B

Oh, see, so I might differ. I'm gonna go with the Secret Agent. Cause here's the thing, it's been winning. I think it got it at Critics Choice and Golden Globes, for whatever that's worth. I know that's not Academy voters, but clever Mendozo Filo did get his moment on live TV at the Globes.

1:47

Speaker A

Nobody? No. Oh, well.

2:07

Speaker B

But hear me out. We'll get to it later. It also got into casting, which Sentimental Value did not.

2:09

Speaker A

That is true. And the reason for that, because one of the casting directors explained this to me, is that they knew that, you know, the casting people did showed up at the Bake off, right. And so they explained. And in that particular case, Sentimental Value, both Stanskars Guard and Renat Rensvi, they were in before anything else got started on the casting side. So that was why they didn't put that in. All right, I'm going to put Secret Agent second because I think obviously with four nominations, it's doing extremely well, including Best Picture and. And casting, as you say, that was a big win for Secret Age and Fog, your Moora, of course, which is a big category to be in. And there is a sort of Brazilian block at the Academy. Okay. Documentary on this one. I think it's gonna be Perfect Neighbor, the only Netflix film to make it into the top five.

2:17

Speaker B

Yeah, I mean, that's been huge because they've been getting iced out since my octopus teacher was a little too popular. I feel like any documentary too close to the sun often gets overlooked by the branch. I was surprised to see Alabama Solution nominated.

3:18

Speaker A

Well, that's one where it's so critical of the American prison system, especially in Alabama, that I think the international voters probably responded critically. They understood what a good movement that was. And it was also one of the like Perfect Neighbor in a similar way. It used technology. It used the inmates own phones in the prison. It was very innovative in terms of how it put things together. So I would say the Perfect Neighbor, though cover up would have been a call. But you know what, Laura Poitras has won before. She's been nominated before. I think they weren't going to be super kind to Netflix, as you say.

3:36

Speaker B

Yeah. I think the other reason why I agree about the Perfect Neighbor is not only is it emotional, it's innovative. It's a film that's using body cam footage, CCTV footage, etc, all to paint this unfortunate narrative of Gita Ganbir actually.

4:19

Speaker A

Really did an extraordinary feat with her editor on that one. And also she's very popular in the documentary branch. They love her. Okay, moving on to animated feature. The. Let's say it now, you called it before. K Pop Demon Hunters.

4:41

Speaker B

We are going up, up, up. We are golden, baby.

5:05

Speaker A

So this is a good day for Netflix on several fronts. Obviously they had 18 nominations along with Neon, both of 18 nominations altogether. But Netflix can count on this to be a winner and they need to win a few Oscars this year instead of just racking up nominations and going home empty handed.

5:09

Speaker B

Yeah. And it's interesting ultimately, I like that this is a little bit more. They've already won this category before with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, but just establishing Netflix as a real competitor to the Disney Pixar that's dominated this category since it was established around 2000.

5:35

Speaker A

So technically, though, Sony made the movie okay.

5:54

Speaker B

Yes.

5:57

Speaker A

And they let it go to Netflix in a very controversial deal that Tom Rothman made. It could have been Sony got 20 million for it or something. So it's one of those things where I wouldn't say that Netflix gets the credit for making K Pop Demon Hunters, but they certainly get the credit for releasing it and putting it in not only on the platform, but in theaters as well.

5:58

Speaker B

Yeah.

6:22

Speaker A

All right, then, Visual effects. I'm going to call this one for Avatar. Fire and Ash, the James Cameron movie, which only got two nominations this year, which is better than nothing. Wicked got nothing.

6:22

Speaker B

I mean, it's one of those things where we already felt that it was going to win it before we even saw the film. And I think the film does deliver just to see even more detail on the Na' VI's faces. But I feel like 2025 was particularly bleak in terms of visual effects. I get a kick out of the Lost Bus receiving a nomination, but I can't help but try to mirror the sentient fire that whips down the mountain whenever I talk about it. That being its primary effect, which I guess still looked better than the wolves that were in Frankenstein, which is.

6:39

Speaker A

You have to pay attention to the Bake off because there was word out of the Bake off that Lost Bus did really well there. And so they were right. They were right. All right. For Best Sound, of course, the news of the day is that Seurat got into the category, but I'm gonna call. Oh, this is an interesting case. What do you think is. What do you think is gonna win? This isn't obvious to me. Is it obvious to you?

7:19

Speaker B

It isn't F1. I understand, because it's.

7:46

Speaker A

That's what they have on Gold Derby so far, et cetera.

7:49

Speaker B

Yeah, but. But I do think in terms of live performance capture, I mean, Sinners was really wonderful. I'm right now looking up what won last year to see if people cared about, like, the live recording of Wicked or Bob Dylan.

7:52

Speaker A

Well, sometimes they go with the music movie, sometimes they do.

8:15

Speaker B

Oh, Dune won last year.

8:19

Speaker A

Well, that's scale and scope, which is what F1 is.

8:21

Speaker B

Okay.

8:24

Speaker A

Yeah, I guess I'll go with F1 too. Yeah. All right, then. Best song is K Pop Racing Demon Hunters. And that's the one Golden. Right? And that's the one that Netflix. The other one that Netflix will win in this category. I did find it really surprising. I mean, Wicked not getting anything. Getting completely shut out. Even in Best Song seemed dramatic.

8:25

Speaker B

You can't even sing half a note of either new song in Wicked for good.

8:51

Speaker A

No, no.

8:57

Speaker B

And I'm a fan. I. The Ariana Grande song was stronger, but ultimately the Girl in the Bubble. Yeah. You didn't see a lot of events where Ariana or Cynthia were able to perform these songs live.

8:58

Speaker A

Then we go to score in this category. I was surprised that Begonia got in. That was a shock to me. But I would definitely give this one to Sinners. This is Goranson's win.

9:14

Speaker B

Yeah. Though I. I had Jurskin Fendrix for Begonia just because he had gotten in for Poor Things. And I like the story of. He didn't know what the film was going to be. He just showed up with his music and Yorgos found it to be just perfect, Just what the film needed. I think he was given a rubric at best, but it was still a fun story.

9:29

Speaker A

I do think that Johnny Greenwood did a great job with one battle after another. It's just hard to compete with the complexity of Sinners, which has so many different elements, including that extraordinary sequence that sort of put the movie over the top. The musical music through history dance sequence, which is so amazing. Yeah.

9:53

Speaker B

Leads us to the next category, Production design.

10:16

Speaker A

Well, in this case, our gold derby confederates are going with Frankenstein, which I will agree with.

10:20

Speaker B

Yeah. I mean, I do think with Sinners, the juke joint is like the best location that I saw from last year's films. But Frankenstein has so many other locations. Towers and the Medusa heading the labs.

10:29

Speaker A

And the frozen ship, you know.

10:47

Speaker B

Oh, yeah, I forget about the ship.

10:51

Speaker A

Frozen ship is my favorite thing. Makeup and hair. Hairstyling is Frankenstein also, I think.

10:53

Speaker B

Yeah. Shout out to Mike Hill. Indiewire honors Wavelength winner with Jacob Elordi. The prosthetics in particular are modeled after these Ivory dolls. And so it gives us this new idea of what the creature, or I guess Frankenstein's monster could look like.

11:01

Speaker A

And Mike Hill had to refit the whole thing to fit Jacob Elordi, who was cast at the very last minute.

11:22

Speaker B

And did you know, too, that he had done. Why am I blanking? The Justin Kurzil show, where he was like a prisoner of war. And so not only was it last minute, but Jacob was having to, like, regain all his weight because he was so gaunt from the TV show and.

11:29

Speaker A

Still had to fit the prosthetics and get it right.

11:50

Speaker B

They did an amazing job.

11:53

Speaker A

Yeah, we'll give that one to Frankenstein. So Frankenstein ended up with nine nominations. It looks like it's gonna make most of its wins in the crafts, so best film editing. Now, one of the movies that didn't make it into this category was Hamnet, which I thought was rather significant. But on the other hand, it's a small scale movie. It doesn't have the big elements that some of the action elements that some of the other films have. So I'm going to go with our presumed best picture frontrunner, One Battle after another for this.

11:54

Speaker B

Yeah. Because I do think in terms of. You were just talking about Hamnet, when you look at the other nominees, F1, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, I think you really see a lot more style with the editing. But I think One battle after another would be my choice as well. Just because it's like two and a half hours long and it zips right through. I never.

12:34

Speaker A

And the last sequence on the highway gives it a lot of juice. I mean, F1 certainly is a competitor, no question about that. Says Marty supreme in Sinners Sentimental Value. It's a sign of how strong the movie is that it got into this category, and you could argue it probably got the Hamnet slot, but I'm going to go with One Battle after another. How about you?

12:57

Speaker B

Same.

13:20

Speaker A

Okay, costume design. Now, the shocker here, as you wrote in your snubs and surprises piece, is that Paul Tazewell did not get into this category for Wicked after having won it for the first one. But I'm gonna. But the front runner all along has been Frankenstein, and I think it still is. Also, it's a surprise that Avatar got in there.

13:21

Speaker B

That's wild. But, you know, once you see Varang, it's like she's probably wearing a belt as a top and I'm still, like, fierce. But yeah, I was gonna say so with the one thing that jumped out to me when I went to the Frankenstein exhibit and saw Kate Holly's work is that the snow was still on, like the ship's. The men on the ship's coats. And so I almost wanted to, like, snatch it off the mannequin and like, wear it for myself. It looks like a very, like, avant garde, stylish winter coat that I would have loved to have worn, though it's already like 80 degrees in LA right now.

13:45

Speaker A

All right, we're going to go to cinematography. Now, I understand that the Train Dreams people have a Brazilian cinematographer in the running here, and his name is Adolfo Veloso, and he is going to put up a big campaign with the Brazilian branch of the Academy. Now, as it were, were the Block. So obviously Secret Agent has its supporters in the Brazilian voting community, but there seems to be some hope for Train Dreams as well. But I'm not gonna go for that for the win. I'm gonna go for Sinners on that one.

14:30

Speaker B

Well, yeah. Cause Autumn Gerald Arkhipov, first woman of Color nominated in the category would be the first woman ever to win the category.

15:13

Speaker A

Rachel Morrison was nominated and so was Randy Walker was also nominated in. Yes, but nobody's won. You're right. So that would be a big deal. And it's the kind of thing the Academy would like to see happen, I.

15:22

Speaker B

Would argue, and I think it's deserved. I mean, not only that, just everything about the part of the selling point of Sinners early on was that video that Ryan Coogler did with Kodak about the different formats and how much thought they put into how the film would transfer onto theater screens.

15:36

Speaker A

Agreed. And if you look at the film, especially in imax, and they shot a lot of it in imax, those sequences outdoors with the convertible car up against the cotton fields in the sky, they're just incredibly stunning. I mean. And again, if we talk about that music sequence in the juke joint, there's some amazing set pieces that she very much delivered. So. All right.

15:58

Speaker B

Yeah, casting and then casting.

16:26

Speaker A

I'm going to go with Francine Mazler for Sinners. She's very popular, she's very respected, she's a star and she did a great job.

16:31

Speaker B

I went to the American Cinematics tribute to Crafts on Friday and she received the award for casting. And it was like, really interesting to just see a casting director give an acceptance speech because that's something that's going to be new for us. My favorite part.

16:41

Speaker A

Well, I've seen. Yeah. You and I were both at Middleburg.

17:02

Speaker B

Right.

17:07

Speaker A

And that was the first time, I think, that Nina Gold had, from J. Kelly, had had the chance to be part of an interview, a Q and A. She wasn't very good. And I think that the casting directors have all been learning how to play the game, but Francine knows how already. She's very articulate, very smooth.

17:08

Speaker B

Yeah, I mean, if the category had existed in earlier years, she would have already won, but now, yeah, she's a star.

17:32

Speaker A

Then we have original screenplay. And Ryan Coogler is going to take this one, assuming he doesn't win director. This is the consolation prize, as it always is for black filmmakers.

17:40

Speaker B

Ain't it, though? Also, I mean, if he were to win Best Director, I feel like we'd have to wait another hundred years before another black director ever or wanted again, so. But yes, I do think Ryan Coogler is going to win.

17:56

Speaker A

He'll be up again. He will be up again. So in this category, thank God, Jafar Panahi did make it in the surprise is Blue Moon. That was a shocker. I did not think that was going to happen and I didn't think it was going to be up for Best Picture either. But Ethan Hawke did squeak in.

18:14

Speaker B

So I think it is kind of carried by Hawk because his performance is so like mile a minute that one thinks of the script as well.

18:34

Speaker A

I can see that adapted screenplay is one battle after another, clearly. Do you agree? Yeah.

18:45

Speaker B

I mean, I don't think there's anything else that. I mean, Hamnet's interesting in the fact that she, director Chloe Zhao, co wrote it with the novelist Maggie o'. Farrell.

18:55

Speaker A

I actually went back and read the book and it's pretty cool. It's a very, very good book. And it's an interesting case to look at the book if you've already seen the movie and recognize how it was adapted. It's fascinating, actually.

19:08

Speaker B

I heard the film is different, but still very much in the spirit of.

19:23

Speaker A

It isn't that different. Except for there's a sequence in the book where Shakespeare is cheating on his wife. They didn't put that in the movie.

19:29

Speaker B

I mean, Paul Mescal really was already nominated.

19:41

Speaker A

Mescal was all, yeah, he never would have been nominated then. He was already pushing it in terms of being likable in the movie. So that was clearly not going to be in there. And the ending is somewhat different, for sure. They definitely tweaked the ending effectively.

19:44

Speaker B

But I think that takes us to a supporting actor. We can just jump right in. Paul Mescal, not nominated. Sad about it.

20:04

Speaker A

It's a weird thing. It's just one of those things where Jessie Buckley, it's sort of like Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln. She's the one. She's Carrie. It's her story. And other people became more important for the voters to go for. I still think Stella Scar has the best shot to win this category. Veteran, well liked. Lots of movies under his belt, many of them big Hollywood films. What do you think?

20:10

Speaker B

I agree. I mean, with one battle after another, the two actors, Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn have already won an Oscar.

20:40

Speaker A

Before and they might cancel each other out.

20:46

Speaker B

Yeah, I was very happy to see Delroy Lindo nominated for a long time coming, even though I probably. I think he deserves earlier recognition than. Because they split. They cut out the best scene. He has the split diopter shot. Did you see that from Sinners?

20:49

Speaker A

They cut it out.

21:10

Speaker B

Yeah, it's something to look up. It's a really interesting shot. But yeah, I feel like because we didn't have precursors like baftas out there, everyone had been questioning just how popular sentimental value would be, especially it getting iced out of the guilds.

21:11

Speaker A

I knew those were American guilds. I wasn't even worried about sentimental value. And then look at the European Film Awards. I mean, it just did amazing, you know?

21:27

Speaker B

And so I think by now, knowing what we know, it's hard to deny that Stone Skarsgard is the front runner, but, you know, credit to Jacob Elordi. Those performances that rely on heavy makeup as well are often Oscar contenders. And so I wouldn't totally count him.

21:37

Speaker A

Out, but he's got heat.

21:55

Speaker B

Yeah. So best supporting Actress Teyana Taylor will.

21:57

Speaker A

Win, don't you think?

22:01

Speaker B

Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think that there's a lot of representation for one battle after another in the acting categories. It didn't totally get all the nominations it wanted, but you have to think that voters would at least want to give the film one win. And I think Teyana Taylor is more than deserving, even if some would argue the role is controversial. But I think there's a lot of nuance there.

22:03

Speaker A

She's handled herself extremely well in the campaign. She's been very classy. She's been expressing her. Who is she slobbering? She was slobbering over somebody who she got to meet, finally.

22:32

Speaker B

Julia Roberts.

22:52

Speaker A

That's it. That's it. At the Golden Globes. That was, you know, that was a good call to make. And then her outfits have been amazing. You know, she's playing the game real well. And anyone who has seen 1001 will recognize what an extraordinary actress she actually is. Okay, then we go to. I mean, Amy Madigan would be great. I would be delighted. I think the two sentimental value actresses knock each other out, but Amy Madigan's a shot, I think. But I think it's still Teyana Taylor. Yeah.

22:53

Speaker B

Though, I mean, I've heard some people say, like, if not now, when for Amy Madigan? I think it had been quiet for a little bit prior to the years.

23:32

Speaker A

40 years.

23:41

Speaker B

Yeah.

23:42

Speaker A

So you call the best Actor. Go for it.

23:44

Speaker B

Oh. As much as it pains me, I think it's Timothee Chalamet not to say that he didn't give an amazing performance. I am just running antithetical to what you and Ryan have said. I love it when he is at his peak confidence accepting these awards. And I've been a little bit down about how dour he seemed.

23:47

Speaker A

We've been complaining about that, too. We've definitely been complaining about that.

24:15

Speaker B

I mean, the surprise would probably be Wagner Mora, but I If it didn't happen for Fernanda, it's hard to think that it would happen for him. But he is more well known in the States off of shows like Narcos or Dope Thief. Yeah. So I. I mean, I would love that as well. But I do think Timothy is kind of doing everything he has to do to get that win.

24:22

Speaker A

He's playing the game, which is a little more boring.

24:48

Speaker B

Sucked his soul out.

24:52

Speaker A

You're probably right. It's probably the thing to do. All right, so we have Jessie Buckley. Nothing's gonna steal it from her. Nothing?

24:53

Speaker B

I don't think so. I mean, yeah, at this point.

25:04

Speaker A

And Kate Hudson getting in was a surprise to me. I have to say. I almost put her in. I debated it. I actually changed my vote at one point to Kate Hudson.

25:09

Speaker B

I finally put her in. I couldn't. I couldn't let go. Chase Infinity. It was just too painful.

25:19

Speaker A

I couldn't either. I left Chase Infinity in, but it was wrong.

25:25

Speaker B

Yeah. But here's what I'll say because I get all these, like, media alerts about the different campaigns that they're doing. When she did a Q and A with Demi Moore, Leonardo DiCaprio, Al Pacino, Mark Ruffalo, David O. Russell were there. She did a lunch where the Rock, Awkwafina. All these stars were there the same week as voting. She did a Q and A with her mom, Goldie Hawn, who's an Oscar winner. So she has been making every, like, pulling out every stop she can to get this nomination. So, I mean, you gotta give a bit of kudos to her and her manager, who you've talked about plenty of times. Jason Weinberg.

25:29

Speaker A

No, Jason Weinberg definitely delivered on this one. He called it. He said, if she gets sagged, she's gonna get the Oscar. That's what he said.

26:14

Speaker B

Well, here's the thing. He backed it up. They. They go.

26:20

Speaker A

And then they got the glow. They got the glow, obviously.

26:23

Speaker B

But Jesse Buckley, it's kind of undeniable.

26:26

Speaker A

Okay, so best director. After 11 nominations for various different categories, it is time for Paul Thomas Anderson to win the Best Director Oscar. And I don't think, even though, as we've discussed, Ryan Coogler is totally deserving and even Joaquin Trier, you know, is obviously very respected here. I don't think anything will take it away from pta.

26:30

Speaker B

Here's my thing. The fact that a black director has not won Best Director is ever present. I've pre written so many articles about so and so becomes the first black filmmaker to win Best Director. And so that's something that's ever present in this race as well, given the narrative around Paul Thomas Anderson, is that he just hasn't won an Oscar, period. He's been nominated 11 times in several different categories. And so all I'm saying is something to consider. The constant snub of this particular category could be more top of mind than the fact that this person who is going to win an Oscar in March has never won an Oscar.

26:56

Speaker A

I think that there is a lot of love for Sinners.

27:50

Speaker B

Yeah.

27:55

Speaker A

And if anything, I thought Hamnet would be the one to challenge One Battle after Another. And things change in the second phase. In phase two, the momentum can completely shift for a movie. And it's possible that one battle after another has peaked and that all these wins that it's had are not going to continue. I don't know think that's true. I think there's enough wind in the sails there for it to go all the way. But if something were to catch up with it, it would be Sinners now.

27:55

Speaker B

I believe, which I do think, because I think the most frustrating part is like, it was so predestined, even when we were talking about One Battle after another before it ever came out, it was that Sinners looks really strong as an Oscar contender. But if One Battle After Another, despite whatever it does at the box office, gets good reviews, it is going to become a priority for Warner Brothers. And it came out and it got the best reviews of the year. So it's more than deserving. But it does suck in a way that the fact that One Battle After Another could overshadow Sinners was already in the ether before the film even, even ever came out. Just because they're the same studio.

28:31

Speaker A

Right. Well, we've done it. We have to do Best Picture. Best Picture is the last available category. Now, in this case, there's 10 movies, obviously, and we just discussed it. I mean, it is one battle after another versus Sinners. That's it. That's the argument we just had.

29:18

Speaker B

Yeah. I mean, how are we. Well, okay, how well do we think we're saying all of this? And then I think Hamnet is going to win at BAFTAs. So I'm almost.

29:38

Speaker A

Hamnet's going to get a lot of attention at baftas. And Hamnet, in a way, leans into the international vote the way sentimental value does. And sentimental value is strong. It is very strong. And so is, by the way, Train Dreams. Yes. Train Dreams is one of those movies that looks like a Best Picture, feels like a best Picture has the emotions of a Best Picture. It's just very small and it's Netflix, which, you know, the voters don't like. So, you know, I would put Train Dreams higher up than the bottom of the list, ahead of Begonia.

29:51

Speaker B

I'd probably put, let's say, F1 at the. F1 at the bottom.

30:31

Speaker A

Yeah, no, F1's at the bottom. And then the Secret Agent and then Begonia and then Train Dreams and then Sentimental Value.

30:38

Speaker B

I'd probably put Secret Agent higher than Train Dreams. I think Train Dreams is higher than F1 in Begonia.

30:45

Speaker A

But yeah, no way of really gauging. Gauging that. Except maybe, maybe Secret Agent got four nomination. So that gives it a little more juice. It's a question of who's seen these films. And the steak eaters obviously voted for F1. Right.

30:53

Speaker B

Do you like Marty or Frankenstein more?

31:15

Speaker A

I think Frankenstein's ahead of Marty. Even if Josh Zapdi got into director. Well, we talked about this. There's five dominant movies that got nominated for the pga, the dga, and the Screen Actors Ensemble. And those movies are one battle after another. Sinner's Hamnet, Frankenstein and Marty Supreme. And those five are really the leaders across the board. And it is harder to go up against them, I think. So the question is, what order are they in? And I would go with one battle after another first followed by Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein and Marty Supreme.

31:18

Speaker B

Okay, I have one Battle. Sinners Hand Knit, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, Marty.

32:02

Speaker A

Supreme, and then One supreme also. So Hamnet got eight nominations, by the way. Let me just say this right out loud and clear. The number of nominations is irrelevant. There have been movies like Lincoln or whatever. You know, they got like 11 nominations and won two. Or there have been movies that have gotten enormous numbers of nominations and won nothing.

32:08

Speaker B

I mean, Martin Scorsese had two. Right. Killers of the Flower Moon and the Irishman.

32:33

Speaker A

That's right. That's right.

32:38

Speaker B

Got a bunch of nominations, no wins. One thing I wanted to point out in terms of we're talking about this Best Picture race, and I thought it was a funny stat, but it could be illuminative when talking about baftas. There was almost zero British actors nominated in the acting categories until Delroy Lindo, who we know as an American actor, but was born in the uk, and Woonwimasaku got Best Supporting Actor and best supporting actress BAFTAs. You know, not.

32:39

Speaker A

They've been pretty productive. Not historically.

33:14

Speaker B

The place where performers of color.

33:19

Speaker A

No, they have rectified that. They've been trying to Rectify that.

33:22

Speaker B

But also the both wound. Me and Delroy Lindo are on the BAFTA long list for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. And so I will say if they do get nominations at baftas, which we've said has historical issues, then that would be a very good sign for Sinners being a strong candidate to possibly.

33:25

Speaker A

Yes. Because if we're looking at the international vote.

33:49

Speaker B

Yes.

33:53

Speaker A

It may be that that's not. The international vote isn't necessarily going for one battle after another or Sinners. They probably are going for Hamnet and Frankenstein, which I think feels very European in its way, and maybe not Marty. Supreme sentimental value. Very strong with that group. I would say Chain Dreams too, could be strong with that group.

33:53

Speaker B

Yeah.

34:22

Speaker A

Even though it's a very American story.

34:22

Speaker B

I think the cinematographer is probably going to win there.

34:25

Speaker A

And Joel Edgerton was a strong contender, even if he didn't make it all the way to a nomination. You know, Begonia, that's a case where they like Yorgos Lanthimos, but it's been there, done that. I don't think it's going to necessarily win anything.

34:28

Speaker B

Yeah. Maybe he'll end up like PTA with like 0 and 11 Oscar record, because. Did he. I don't think Dogtooth won an Oscar.

34:48

Speaker A

No, no, no, no. Well, it might have been in foreign. I don't remember.

34:57

Speaker B

It was in Des International, but I don't think. Yeah, one. And also that technically goes to the country anyway.

35:00

Speaker A

That's right. It doesn't go to the director. It does not go to the director. All right, well, we've done our. We've run through it. We'll catch up with the shorts at another time. Now, you can't win with the shorts, but if you want to win at the end of the day, I mean, I will eventually see them all and catch up with them all and we'll revisit this. Okay. Well, thank you, Marcus. You were very helpful, very erudite. You've got a lot of perspective on this. You've been following it very closely.

35:07

Speaker B

Yeah. So much so that I knew Diane Warren was taking it again.

35:40

Speaker A

I can't do it. I can't do it. I just can't do it. It was like when I got to Chase Infinity. I couldn't take her off, even though I knew Kate Hudson might get it. And when I got to Best Song, I could not put Diane Warren on. I object so strenuously. The other guy that they put in there, what is his name? Nick Pike. Oh, yeah, that's another chronic that's another friend of the group for a movie nobody saw.

35:45

Speaker B

Gotta tell you, did not know what the film was when it got onto the shortlist. But yeah, but, you know, nice that Nick Cave got on for Train Dreams.

36:13

Speaker A

I think I was happy about that. I voted for that.

36:23

Speaker B

Crazy. But yeah, I mean, do you have any other spare thoughts on astronomy?

36:26

Speaker A

I have no spare thoughts. I thought they did well. I'm not objecting strenuously to this list. I don't feel like I think they did well. One of the things that was true this year was that they were monitoring everyone to make sure they saw everything. So that's a new technological wrinkle and.

36:30

Speaker B

It seems like they did. I mean, there's a bunch of random stuff here. I mean, even in makeup. There's Kokuo, which you talked to Ken Watanabe recently.

36:54

Speaker A

You got that right.

37:04

Speaker B

So happy for him. And the Ugly Stepsister, which is an IFC release. Smashing machines in there. Smashing Machine. Both technically. Technically, both Safdie brothers directed Oscar nominated film. So both their parents can be happy for them.

37:06

Speaker A

We can call it. I mean, I think Josh came out ahead on that one, but they seem. No, they seem to be. Continue to be friendly. And I'm glad that Conan o' Brien is coming back. I think he's a great host. He's perfect in my book. I'm a big Jimmy Kimmel fan too, so he's welcome back anytime if he wants to come back. But they were right to go with Conan for now.

37:23

Speaker B

They're like Academy associate members now. Like, they can't vote, right?

37:51

Speaker A

Those two guys.

37:57

Speaker B

Yeah, yeah. They added all the recent executive producers as I think it's called associate members. Right?

37:59

Speaker A

Yeah, they have a category called that. All right, thanks a lot.

38:05

Speaker B

All right, thank you.

38:09