Why Israeli assassinations aren't working the way they hope

More than three weeks ago, President Donald Trump made a promise to the Iranian people. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. That was on February 28th, the day the U.S. and Israel launched their war with Iran. They killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Hamanei alongside other top military and political leaders. The targeted strikes led primarily by Israel were meant to cripple Iran's governmental, military, and nuclear research arms. And Trump said he wanted the killings to serve as an opening for the Iranian people to rise up against their government. So far, they haven't. But Israel and the U.S. have kept up the targeted assassinations. Iranian leaders killed in recent days include Ali Lerajani. He was a longtime Iranian official, most recently head of their National Security Council. Even President Trump said that has hurt his administration's efforts to communicate with the Iranian government. We're having a hard time. We want to talk to them and there's nobody to talk to. We have nobody to talk to. And you know what? We like it that way. These targeted attacks have a name in the intelligence community. Decapitation strikes. Jenna Jordan is a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and she actually wrote a book on decapitation strikes. She says they're not helping Israel or the U.S. accomplish their war goals. Continuing to target the leadership is not going to topple the regime. It might cause delays. It might cause disruption. But what I think it does is that it's emboldening the leaders that are stepping into their positions. Consider this. As the war with Iran enters its fourth week, the Trump administration and Israeli government have boasted about their ability to find and assassinate top leaders in the Iranian government. But that strategy may end up hurting any effort to actually end the war. From NPR, I'm Adrienne Ma. It's Consider This from NPR. Yossi Melman is a journalist in Tel Aviv who covers intelligence and strategic affairs. We spoke with him hours after Iranian missiles hit two cities in the southern part of Israel, where Israel's nuclear research center is. We wanted to know more about those attacks and how the Israeli government's decapitation strategy is changing the war with Iran. Let me start with getting your reaction to Iran's overnight strikes in southern Israel. They struck near a research center which is widely believed to be connected to Israel's nuclear program. You're based in Israel. What is the feeling there right now? Well, actually, there was no surprise because all of Israel is basically covered in a target for Iranian ballistic missiles. And one shouldn't forget also for Hezbollah from Lebanon's missiles. They are striking all parts of Israel, including my town. This morning there were fragments which hit not far from where I live. So, if not surprised, what do those strikes tell you about the status of the war? That it is becoming a war of attrition with no sight of ending it. Israelis, a lot of Israelis are fatigue. Most Israelis are waking up every night for the last 23 days, three, four, five times a night and running to the shelters. Some of Israelis have shelters in their own houses, but many of the population, nearly 30 percent, have no shelter at all. So, there is a feeling of fatigue, feeling that we don't see an end to it. And it's very, very difficult to maintain a daily routine. You called it a war of attrition, which I presume is not what Israel wants out of this. Earlier this week, Israel killed two top Iranian leaders, National Security Advisor Ali Larejani and Intelligence Minister Esmail Hatib. They're part of the strategy of so-called decapitation strikes, basically high-level assassinations. Can you talk about this strategy by the Israeli military? This is a long-standing strategy of Israel, started in the 60s against German scientists in Egypt, then continued to scientists working for Saddam Hussein in Iraq, recently Hamas leaders, and now military and political leaders and religious leaders of Iran are being targeted. It gives a feeling that Israel is in love in this kind of targeted killing or assassinations, and believe this is the only solution as a problem solver. But it's wrong, because it doesn't lead us anywhere. Every leader, every commander that has been killed sooner or later, a replacement is being found. What happened, I think, that Israel and the United States and President Trump believe that if they kill the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the opening shot of the war, a chain reaction would be created. The masses, Iranian masses would rush to the streets and will topple the government, or at least there would be some sort of a coup d'etat from within the regime, moderate forces in the regime will take over. This war began as a big gamble, and the chiefs are now not in the favor of Israel and the United States. So Israel has been relying on the strategy for a long time. What do we know about how they get done? When it comes to Iran, it's a work of many, many years back. The Mossad, the Israeli Foreign Intelligence Agency, and the military intelligence have been penetrating Iran, bugging telephones, shadowing people, recruiting agents, smuggling weapons inside the country, building safe houses that when the order is given, everything will be in place, and it will be possible to execute the decision. Iran is a country of mosaic, a lot of ethnic minorities, and many of them don't like the regime and are ready to cooperate with Israel. Some of them do it out of ideology, others for financial rewards, others because they hate the regime. Israel has sufficient infrastructure to come and to strike time and again, time again, against top leaders, nuclear scientists, and political leaders. To zoom out for a second, last June, amid the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, you spoke to a top official from Israel's spy agency, and he told you, quote, a war is measured by how it ends, not by how successful the first strike is. What do you make of that now as the war enters week four? Well, that's saying still holds. We don't see how it ends. Just nine months ago, Israel and the United States, mostly Israel, with the help of the United States, attacked Iran, then President Trump prided himself that he obliterated Iranian nucleosides, and Netanyahu, our Prime Minister in Benjamin Netanyahu, said that he ensured the existence of Israel for generations. And here we are, nine months after, we are doing more of the same, more of the same, with no tangible results, and maybe we are going into a perpetual war. We've been speaking with Yossi Melman, a journalist who covers Israel Intelligence and Strategic Affairs. He's also co-author of the book, Spies Against Armageddon. Thank you so much for taking the time. Thank you, Adrian. This episode was produced by Henry Larson and Daniel Offman. It was edited by Tinbeet Ermias and Sarah Robbins. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. It's Consider This From NPR. I'm Adrian Ma.