TBPN

AI Isn’t Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral’s $2B Sweden bet | Diet TBPN

30 min
Feb 12, 20262 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The episode discusses AI's exponential growth compared to COVID, analyzing whether AI will have similar widespread impact. The hosts cover Tai Lopez's alleged $230M Ponzi scheme involving distressed retailers, positive US jobs data, and advances in AI video generation from Chinese models like ByteDance's Sora 2.0.

Insights
  • AI growth differs from COVID because it's fundamentally productive rather than destructive, likely leading to more fake jobs rather than mass unemployment
  • Chinese AI models have competitive advantages by training on copyrighted content without legal restrictions that constrain US companies
  • The gap between AI hype and practical implementation remains significant for non-tech industries like healthcare and manual labor
  • European AI sovereignty is becoming a strategic priority as governments seek alternatives to US tech infrastructure
  • Direct response marketing tactics pioneered by influencers like Tai Lopez created lasting templates for online course and investment scams
Trends
European tech sovereignty movement gaining momentum with major infrastructure investmentsAI coding tools accelerating development timelines but still requiring significant human oversightChinese AI models gaining ground through less restrictive training approachesShift from AI hype to practical implementation questions across industriesGrowing skepticism toward AI breakthrough announcements and evaluation claimsFederal Reserve policy influenced by conflicting economic data revisionsMeta positioning for AI-powered commerce integration through wearablesHealthcare sector driving real economy job growth amid tech market volatility
Companies
Mistral
Investing $1.4B in Swedish AI infrastructure to build European tech sovereignty alternative to US providers
ByteDance
Released Sora 2.0 video generation model demonstrating advanced capabilities with copyrighted content
Meta
Received $2B investment from Bill Ackman's fund, positioning for AI-powered commerce through wearables
OpenAI
Referenced as constrained by legal restrictions compared to Chinese competitors in AI model training
Radio Shack
One of the distressed retailers Tai Lopez claimed to be turning around in alleged Ponzi scheme
Pier 1 Imports
Distressed retailer involved in Tai Lopez's $230M alleged fraud scheme promising 20% returns
Retail E Commerce Ventures
Tai Lopez's company that raised $230M from investors for distressed retailer turnarounds
Amazon
Mentioned as dominant US cloud provider that European governments want to reduce dependence on
Microsoft
Listed among US tech giants that Europe seeks independence from for AI infrastructure
Alphabet
Identified as one of the US companies dominating AI infrastructure that Europe wants alternatives to
ASML
Dutch chip maker that led Mistral's previous $1.3B funding round
Shopify
Mentioned as platform where commerce typically happens, with Harley from Shopify appearing on upcoming show
Pershing Square
Bill Ackman's investment firm that made $2B bet on Meta, representing 10% of portfolio
People
Tai Lopez
Subject of SEC fraud investigation for alleged $230M Ponzi scheme involving distressed retailer turnarounds
Bill Ackman
Hedge fund manager whose Pershing Square made $2B investment in Meta as AI beneficiary play
Jerome Powell
Fed Chair cited for comments about job market stabilization affecting rate cut expectations
Alex Maier
Tai Lopez's business partner and mechanical engineer who co-founded dating app that sold for $255M
Sean Murphy
Illinois grandfather who invested $175K in Tai Lopez scheme and received temporary payouts before collapse
Nelson Rowe
82-year-old retired real estate broker who invested $300K in Tai Lopez's retail venture
Marty Reddy
Tai Lopez's lawyer who didn't respond to Wall Street Journal requests for comment on SEC case
Emmanuel Macron
French President referenced in context of European tech sovereignty and Mistral's expansion
Mark Zuckerberg
Meta CEO referenced regarding company's commerce ambitions and AI-powered shopping vision
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist whose singularity timelines the hosts still believe in despite slower AI adoption pace
Quotes
"AI isn't Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral's $2B Sweden bet"
HostOpening
"Never Doom. No matter how horrible the situation, don't ever think you're doomed unless you are dead. All defeat is psychological."
Tai LopezMid-episode
"I'd rather miss the latest AI news and just be poor. Tell me when the singularity is done so I can pause Single's Inferno and I'll tune back into X."
Anonymous posterMid-episode
"This investment is a concrete step toward building independent capabilities in Europe dedicated to AI."
Mistral representativeLate episode
"whatever level abstraction you're giving to AI agents, you should probably be delegating one level above that."
RuneEarly episode
Full Transcript
3 Speakers
Speaker A

Is something big happening? This is the big question. I think it's a good essay. I don't love the COVID comparison for a few reasons. It's good, it's good in the macro. But I think when you dig into, you know, how much is AI, and fast takeoff and the advancement of these models really like Covid. I have trouble with that analogy in particular. So back In February of 2020, everyone in tech was aware of how quickly a virus could compound because everyone in tech had followed exponential curves. We all knew Moore's Law. There's that funny quote. The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest. But everyone in tech is obsessed with exponential growth, exponential charts. You know, everything is about exponentials. So seeing an exponential curve and maybe studying math or something like that just made people much more aware that if Covid got out of control and wasn't contained, you would just see rapid, rapid explosion in the number of cases. And that of course, held for most of COVID but it wasn't a true exponential. And I've said this before, there are very few true exponentials in the real world because of course, things cap out, they turn into logistic curves. So instead of going up and to the right indefinitely, they go up and to the right and then they plateau. Now, will AI plateau? There's been a series of plateaus. There's been a series of S curves. That's the story of technology really. As you zoom out, you see smooth exponential growth. But in the moment, you see a number of S curves. You see the desktop, the mainframe, then mobile, then the Internet and cloud. You see these different curves. AI is certainly one of those. You could put LLMs, reasoning agents, a whole bunch of technologies that have, if they didn't happen, there would have been a plateau. But then we get the next thing. The math around the COVID exponential always bothered me because it was exponential growth for a while. But you can't keep growing indefinitely exponentially because there's only 8 billion people on Earth. Something like a billion people got reported Covid cases. But you just can't 100x from there. Like it's impossible. There's not 100 billion people to infect. So eventually the growth rate has to slow down. Back to AI. If you model the power of artificial intelligence just purely as a function of energy, we have plenty of room for exponential growth. We're truly very far away. Humanity is around 13 orders of magnitude away from Kardashev type 2, like full Dyson sphere, capturing 100% of the energy. That's produced by the sun. Even just in terms of how much energy we're using on AI that we have, the power that we generate on Earth, we're less than 1%. So we can grow that significantly. And that's why it feels exponential now. But there will be a whole bunch of bottlenecks all over the place. It takes time to adjust. There are certain industries that are sticky. And so I like the framing of, you know, it's time to talk to your friends outside of the tech world about AI. But it doesn't feel exactly like Covid because Covid affected people. You know, older people, people who were not online reading Balaji Sreenivasan's post about COVID studying the exponentials, modeling the R naughts. So it was very advantageous to go to people who were not aware of what was coming and telling them, like, hey, like, you are going to need to stay inside for a little bit because it's going to get rough out there. It happened extremely fast. And a lot of people, when they think about AI, they have very antiquated views. They still like, oh, the images of six fingers and they don't notice that they just watched five AI generated reels that they couldn't detect. Or they talk about hallucinated facts and LLM responses, something that's basically been solved by deep research and reasoning models, knowledge cutoffs like, oh, it can't tell me what happened today. Like, no, it can actually tell you the weather today. It can go and look that up on the Internet, no problem. And so many people still use these reference points and maybe they dip their toe in, but it's definitely time for them to dip their toe in again. So this is good. I love that. At the same time, the coding models, as remarkable as they are, they'll reshuffle the economics of tech. We're seeing this with the SaaS apocalypse. Certain companies will be stronger beneficiaries of AI. Others will be damaged because maybe their only moat was that they had a complex software system that was hard to migrate off of. All of a sudden, an agent can just do it for you. When I think about telling my friends outside of tech about the coming wave, I'm just not entirely sure how helpful an understanding of code coding agents will be for them. I was thinking about like some of my real world friends, like I'm friends with the surgeon, like, yes, he has a SaaS product that helps him book clients. He should probably renegotiate that. I would not recommend him vibe coding his own payment system. But like the humanoid robot that can operate on a patient in a surgical context and has the trust of the patient. Like, it's coming, but it's a ways away. I would definitely talk to any software engineers in your world about what's happening, how the level of abstraction. I mean, just. Just yesterday Rune posted something. It was like, whatever level abstraction you're giving to AI agents, you should probably be delegating one level above that. That's a good frame of mind. And so if there's someone out there that says, look, my company, for some reason, hasn't been really on the forefront of AI adoption, I don't really have access to the models or they're not approved, it's like, yeah, you should probably be using these in your free time a lot to get up to speed, to know how to actually use the new tools as effectively as possible. Because that's clearly where the future role is going. Yes, it will change over the next decade. Like, I'm not a bear here. I'm just saying, like, I don't know that February 2026 will be the month that, like, surgeons change the software. Only Singularity. Super real. The singularity. Broadly. I still believe in the Kurzweil timelines, but I don't know that February is. Is the month where, like, everyone is changed. Whether you're like, a car mechanic or like, I have a friend who operates a bunch of gas stations. Like, one of the things he had to do was, like, kick someone out who was trying to steal stuff. Like, there's a crazy video of him, like, jumping over the counter. And, like, the humanoids will change a lot. That's not quite. We're. We're still, like, in this, like, slow takeoff. In my opinion. It is remarkable and it's a lot of fun to talk about. So I do think the recommendation of, like, talk to your friends about advances in AI is awesome because you can just say, hey, like, look at this personal website. Let's build you this. Oh, you have a wedding coming up. Like, here, Vibe code your wedding website. Like, what do you want to do? Like, there's a whole bunch of different things that you can do. But for most people, it won't be like, Covid, where 100% of people were somehow affected by it.

0:00

Speaker B

You know, even five years ago, there was kind of a running joke where it felt like a lot of office jobs were just fake.

6:16

Speaker A

Yeah.

6:22

Speaker B

And even when people kind of, like, started that became part of the zeitgeist and people were talking about it. It didn't mean all the jobs went away. Yeah, some jobs have gone away, but again, headcounts at, you know, even a lot of these companies have stayed relatively stable. We had a good jobs report, surprisingly.

6:22

Speaker A

Yeah. Economists expected 65,000 jobs. The number came in at more than double at 130,000 jobs. We'll see where it lands in terms of review.

6:40

Speaker B

But yeah, the question is like, okay, the jobs have always been some email jobs. A lot of email jobs have been pretty fake. What happens if agents can do a lot of these jobs? Do the fake jobs remain? Yeah, I was joking. I responded to the article and I said tldr, freak TF out and sell all your money immediately. People were asking what do you sell your money for? That's the point. I was joking around. I thought Jeffrey said, it's depressing how widely shared and read this is. AI generated word salad posted by someone with vested interest in spreading AI hype. AI is big, I guess, but its effect will be much more complicated than this quote unquote essay implies. So really, really going, really going hard. But again, it felt like something like send this to 10 friends or you will be in the permanent underclass forever. Like kind of like high school.

6:48

Speaker A

Yeah, it was a little bit of like a throwback to the permanent class. Tyler, what was your interpretation of it?

7:39

Speaker C

Yeah, I think my main critique is like with COVID it's like very destructive. Right? Yeah, you maybe you lose your job but like at the very least like you might get sick. Everything is like bad. Yeah, with AI it's like this article is like, yeah, people are like going to lose their jobs. That's like kind of what the gist. Like you should be aware that like your job might get automated. Yeah, but like is like fundamentally like it's like a productive tool. Right. So I imagine like it's not going to cause a recession. GDP is not going to go down, it's going to go up. And so I think my base case is like jobs actually get like way more fake generally. I mean there's probably like hundreds of people on X their entire job. Like their salary is just posting fake AI news and they get paid by. It's not even like sponsored deals. It's like they're just getting paid by X directly. Like that's like completely fake job. Yeah, but like that's going to go up.

7:44

Speaker A

There's going to be more of those.

8:24

Speaker B

I'm exhausted by the omg. This changes everything. AI posts this godforsaken site that I'm planning to take my doom scrolling talents back to Instagram. I believe in AI. I use it every day for increasingly non trivial tasks. My team spends a massive amount of money on it, vendors tokens, acquisition and I have pitched AI products that we built on stage. I believe things are changing fast. I don't care to hear some sweaty overly online dudes breathless panting over the latest model anymore. I don't need to know what's changed in the last 45 seconds in AI. I don't need some dork with a weird haircut writing condescending posts like he was the first person to get the last Harry Potter book and wants to drop edgy hints about how Dumbledore dies at that. I'd rather miss the latest AI news and just be poor. Tell me when the singularity is done so I can pause Single's Inferno and I'll tune back into X. Then Nelson says okay, but this one really changes anything. Everything. Please. I promise. Please.

8:25

Speaker A

Yeah, people are having fun. Feels like an anon congest tweet. Just vibe coded databricks with a Screenshot and the SaaS market will follow.5% cephalopod.

9:17

Speaker B

Yeah, I mean if your job is building a wraparound chatgpt like this guy, then it's not surprising that AI can automate that.

9:27

Speaker A

What did Joe Eisenthal have to say?

9:35

Speaker B

Joe with a funny post. He says seeing a lot of posts from software engineers that are like AI is devouring job and soon it will happen to everyone. And it's like maybe, but just because you have an easy job doesn't mean everyone else.

9:36

Speaker A

Such good bait. Incredible bait Master incredible solid bait.

9:50

Speaker B

If anyone falls for this, you really deserve it. Buco Capital said. A great comment from a friend who's coding with these AI tools around the clock for the hype you read online. It's just really difficult to tell the difference between a genuine breakthrough propaganda to justify evaluations and LLM psychosis. Yeah, Matt Schumer's article must go incredibly hard if you have LLM psychosis.

9:56

Speaker A

I was thinking more about Claude with ads. The Vibe coded drop we launched on the super bowl. That was an idea that we had Friday morning and after the show on Friday we sat down, we talked about it with Tyler and said is this feasible? Can we get a functional website up? It's a clone of the of the Claude app interface. Same color style guides, fonts, all this stuff like coding that by hand feels like a week long project. I don't know how long it would take normally but like and it was clearly accelerated and I was thinking about like if we didn't have coding agents, what would we have done? Like we could have paid a dev shop 10k to build something like that, but we probably just wouldn't have done it at all. Right.

10:17

Speaker B

Disagree.

11:06

Speaker A

Okay, what do you think? How would it.

11:07

Speaker B

I was do. I was doing kind of drops, stunts like that before coding agents were a thing and you could just work hard and do grind like Dylan and I, you know, we did, we did one back in the day with party round called Helpful vc. This was I think like May or June.

11:08

Speaker A

Yeah.

11:27

Speaker B

Of 2021. So it was before the crazy NFT boom had really started. But cryptopunks were popular and we made a collection of like 400 NFTs of various VCs. We just put them on a website and said, if you don't repost this site in the next four hours, we're going to auction off your NFT. And so you had like 400 VCs reposted it very quickly. And that was an example of like a funny idea like Claude with ads where we just had the idea, we worked on it for a few days, shipped it and that was it.

11:27

Speaker A

How long was it? A couple days.

12:01

Speaker B

It was definitely no more than five business days.

12:02

Speaker A

We got this done in like one day.

12:05

Speaker B

It's Friday to Sunday. Tyler was still shipping.

12:07

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah.

12:10

Speaker C

Like, like obviously like I'm extremely bullish on these tools and they're like incredible. But it's still like I was spent like most like almost all my Saturday, like building.

12:11

Speaker B

Yeah.

12:18

Speaker C

It's not like it's like they're accelerating.

12:18

Speaker B

You took one for the team, you sacrifice your weekend.

12:20

Speaker C

Like these tools are like the month, employee month. Get it Still, I still deserve it. They're not so incredible that like it can't like literally one shot it in five minutes. You can't just tell Claude code build exact replica and it can't actually do that yet.

12:24

Speaker A

Yeah, without you it would not have happened. Delicious tacos. Favorite account says moratorium on AI CEOs using AI to write long winded articles on how scared they are of AI. Very true. There's a lot. But I wonder. This didn't trigger my. This is AI rit slop, you know, vibes. Maybe there was AI involved somehow, but it felt like it was sort of just, I don't know, very readable. It didn't throw me off. I want to talk about Tai Lopez. Tai Lopez, the retail Revival Vow burned investors. The Wall Street Journal has a, has a deep dive on Tai Lopez. He pitched Radio Shack Pier one Turnarounds. Now the SEC alleges a Ponzi scheme. Tai Lopez was living proof of the American. The American dream was still attainable for young men willing to bet on themselves.

12:38

Speaker C

I'm hiring. I need high ticket closers.

13:23

Speaker B

You can work from home, you work from anywhere. I have literally tens of thousands of leads, okay?

13:26

Speaker C

What I need is people that have.

13:31

Speaker B

High energy, they're sharp at sales, and they're hungry. I get crazy lead flow.

13:33

Speaker A

The entrepreneur hosted parties at a mansion in Beverly Hills and boasted about the black Lamborghini in his garage. The college dropout had made a name for himself on social media by offering get rich quick advice and self help courses. He was one of the first people to really understand the economics of YouTube ads. When he went live with his YouTube ad campaign, he had the LTV to CAC so dialed that he was able to spin it up and just spend millions and millions of dollars on YouTube ads. And I don't know if he owned the Ferraris or rented them, but like, it clearly worked. It was like the first real breakout, not influencer campaign, but direct YouTube ad network campaign. He urged his followers to invest in a new company he had started that was scooping up distressed retailers on the cheap. Radio shack, Pier 1 Imports, Dress Barn, Modell sporting goods and linens and things with a promise to turn them into E Commerce winners. That was always a weird, weird, weird, crazy pitch. So Sean Murphy is an example of someone here. He saw Lopez's posts on his Facebook and Instagram feeds and was drawn in by the brand names and the promise of 20% returns. Always odd to pitch a promised return.

13:39

Speaker B

Yeah, and this is called first kind of major error. Having a bad business idea like buying old retailers and trying to revive them is not illegal. Yes, but general solicitation, yes. Very, very risky. No, no.

14:54

Speaker A

Sean Murphy invested $175,000 into the company called Retail Commerce Ventures. E Commerce vent. Lopez raised more than $230 million from hundreds of mostly small investors. We talk about these big funding rounds and we're like, oh, like, how did this person get this much money? And we hear about the SPVs and the layered SPVs and all the. All the bringing retail into the private markets, but like, he really did it. So Murphy is another example. He's an Illinois grandfather. He got a $10,000 Pier 1 gift card and monthly checks of about $1,000 for two years. What he didn't know was that his payouts allegedly were funded most investors.

15:09

Speaker B

Second mistake, second mistake.

15:48

Speaker A

These guys lied. He said they conspired they led people on Poor Murphy here. The payments stopped abruptly in late 2022 and the struggling retailers were then taken over by some of the company's creditors.

15:50

Speaker B

So he had the 230 million of equity and then he also.

16:01

Speaker A

Yeah. Last September, the SEC filed a civil lawsuit against Lopez and his partners, accusing them of running a Ponzi scheme, misleading investors, and misappropriating $16.1 million. The FBI has been contacting investors as part of a criminal investigation into what happened. Lopez and his lawyer, Marty Reddy, didn't respond to requests for comment. Lopez, who's 48 years old now, hasn't addressed the company's collapse and the heavy losses incurred by his investors. The day the SEC filed suit, he posted on X Never Doom. No matter how horrible the situation, don't ever think you're doomed unless you are dead. All defeat is psychological. Is he talking to himself there?

16:06

Speaker B

Yeah, I guess. Staying in character. I just can't believe how much like the check sizes for some of the. That he was bringing in.

16:40

Speaker A

Yeah.

16:47

Speaker B

Apparently. Nelson Rowe says Lopez seemed credible. An 82 year old retired real estate broker who invested $300,000. The story sounded so good. You can imagine somebody like this like goes offline for 10 years and then just like logs onto the Internet and it's like, wait, this guy has radio shack. Tier 1 imports linens and goods.

16:47

Speaker A

Yeah, linens and things.

17:09

Speaker B

Linens, Linens and things. I mean, this seems like a winner. So, yeah, quick Google search could have helped to avoid this. Tai Lopez's greatest contribution, I would say is not very great. Is he inspired tens of thousands of young people to try to make their money in info products, which is like still perpetuating itself because it's sort of like a. It's kind of like a virus. Somebody starts doing it, they get people down their funnel. The people get down their funnel, they realize like, hey, like this guy's actually making money with courses. I should learn from him how to do courses. And it just kind of creates this web of people selling info products and flaunting a bunch of their lifestyle.

17:10

Speaker A

There's so many layers. The course that teaches you E commerce or drop shipping and then the course that teaches you to sell courses on E commerce. And we need to do the final boss. The course that teaches you how to sell courses about how to sell courses about how to sell courses about how to sell E commerce or something. Something like that. Let's go into the shopping spree.

17:50

Speaker B

Did you ever buy a course?

18:09

Speaker A

Yes.

18:11

Speaker B

That. That actually changed your life?

18:12

Speaker A

Yes, yes. Yes, I did. I bought a course on Houdini, a motion graphics tool used in Hollywood. If you've watched Game of Thrones and you see horses galloping.

18:14

Speaker B

What was the course title? Was it like how to Get Rich Quick with Houdini?

18:24

Speaker A

No, it was like using Houdini in advanced VFX pipelines.

18:28

Speaker B

So you weren't. The course creator was not driving a Lamborghini?

18:32

Speaker A

No, no. The course creator was like, I worked on Westworld. You want to learn how they did Westworld graphics? And I'm like, absolutely. I would love to pay you $1,000 to teach me how to do that.

18:36

Speaker B

You paid to learn how to fish?

18:44

Speaker A

Yeah.

18:46

Speaker B

Now you're feeding yourself for a lifetime.

18:46

Speaker A

Exactly. Because, I mean, if it's a narrow skill.

18:48

Speaker B

Yeah. I definitely bought at least one workout course when I was probably, like, 18 or 19. Even though it was, like, effectively advertising a bro split.

18:51

Speaker A

Yeah.

19:02

Speaker B

Just learn from any Arnold.

19:03

Speaker A

Yeah.

19:06

Speaker B

Video. Any quick Google search certainly can get it from ChatGPT. It was opinionated and I just followed it.

19:06

Speaker A

Yeah.

19:13

Speaker B

And it. It was well worth the money. Even though the information was like, there's something about. If you pay for something, you're much more likely to take it seriously and actually try to follow it.

19:13

Speaker A

Yeah.

19:22

Speaker B

And so I won't say, even though we're kind of poking fun here, I don't think all. All information products are bad. No, I completely agree.

19:23

Speaker A

P90X. That was the workout course that was. That was going viral when I was in college.

19:32

Speaker B

The ones I do. The ones I do think are. The ones I do think are, like, really, really, really bad are when they advertise, like, trading courses to, like, young, younger audiences.

19:37

Speaker A

Yeah.

19:49

Speaker B

Because it's like, okay, you have $300 in your bank account. Yeah, I'm sorry. Like, you're not. You're not gonna change. You're not gonna change your life. You should learn anything else.

19:50

Speaker A

The crazy thing is that there is a reasonable trading course which would be like, buy ETFs. Right. Like, there is good financial advice that you could give someone to trade. Right. And it would be basically like, don't trade. Like, buy and hold.

19:59

Speaker B

Lopez teamed up with Alex Maier, mechanical engineer, who had co founded an online dating app that sold for 255 million. Not bad. In 2019, they formed Miami based Retail E Commerce Ventures to snap up distressed retail brands. Lopez was CEO and mayor president. Lopez's younger cousin was chief operating officer, according to the SEC complaint, she previously worked as a substitute preschool teacher, a radio station promoter, and as an assistant to the online educational company that Lopez had started in one pier one pitch deck. Investors were told they would receive 200,000 after their first year if they invested 1 million, which again, is 20% return, which is insane.

20:11

Speaker A

Any sort of like, return is usually a huge red flag.

20:52

Speaker B

Getting into the jobs report.

20:56

Speaker A

Jobs report, 130,000 jobs. Economists expect 65,000 jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. Traders pushed Fed rate cut expectations to July and revisions trimmed the US 2025 payroll gain to 181,000.

20:58

Speaker B

There were kind of delays with the report. Right. Everyone was expecting this to be absolutely abysmal.

21:15

Speaker A

Yeah.

21:21

Speaker B

And now I think the reaction is, can we trust. Can we trust the data?

21:22

Speaker A

I was debating with a friend about, he was sending me some economic data and he was saying, like, like AI is the only thing holding up the economy. I was like, I don't know that that's the right phrase. I almost prefer, AI is holding up the stock market, but healthcare is holding up the economy because that's where we're seeing job gains. And that's where like the real economy, like, there's always this disconnect between what's happening in the markets that's very forward looking. And then there's like the, on the ground, like, do people have jobs or not? And the question of like, do people have jobs or not is much more in the healthcare and services sector. There's going to be some debate over, you know, how real is this, Will it be revised down? But there are other economic statistics that we can look at. We're having Harley from Shopify on the show and we'll ask him about the health of the consumer because he sees a lot of commerce data. And if people are even just worried about losing their jobs, usually they're pulling back on spending.

21:25

Speaker B

Discretionary spending. Revisions came out today as well, showed job growth was almost 900,000 lower in the 12 months through March 2025 than initially reported. So again, like, we announced these big numbers. Yeah. And then we kind of move on and then revise them.

22:19

Speaker A

Yeah. Employers added 130,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3% according to the BLS. I mean, there is this interesting tension right between even if the job numbers are inflated, that puts pressure on the Fed to not cut rates, which is another stated objective of the administration. So you have these like two things. Like if you're pushing for, hey, let's count every possible job that could potentially fit in this category, then it's going to be harder to make the Case that you should cut rates in leaving rates unchanged. Last month, chair Jerome Powell cited signs of steadying in the job market. So Jerome Powell saw this as well. Coming off a hiring recession in 2026, this is welcome news. The labor market appears to be stabilized.

22:36

Speaker B

Well, you know what is real?

23:19

Speaker A

What?

23:21

Speaker B

Bytedance Sea Dance 2.0. The model's very good. This is a nature documentary about an otter flying an airplane, which, if you ask me, is worth the 2 trillion of capex.

23:21

Speaker A

Is photo real world of marvels. Some creatures defy all expectations. This is the incredible story of the pilot otter. That's cute. I like that.

23:33

Speaker B

Lucas is firing shots at actors. Okay, but we can pull this up.

23:46

Speaker A

You killed Jeffrey Epstein, you animal.

23:51

Speaker B

He was a good man.

23:56

Speaker A

He knew too much about our Russia operations. He had to die. And now you die, too.

23:58

Speaker B

All right. Insane. Insane audio. But. But the. The video. I mean, I can't. You. You. You've watched a handful of movies.

24:03

Speaker A

I have.

24:12

Speaker B

More than me. Does this look like it could be in a film?

24:12

Speaker A

It's close. It's pretty close.

24:15

Speaker B

What are you missing?

24:17

Speaker A

I mean, just the length of the shot. It's not fully, like, modern. The way Hollywood shoots an action scene like this, it's either, like, way more cuts and just way more, like, detail shots, like, cutting in and out, or they'll try and turn it into more of, like, a cinematic set piece and have, like, a drone shot or sweeping shot. Like, it's very rare that you're just sort of sitting there watching that in most of, like, the most modern movies.

24:19

Speaker B

But if you were sitting there prompting and splicing it together from different angles, for sure you could.

24:49

Speaker C

Yeah. I think I do wonder if there's, like, an interesting comparison to the kind of cloudbot stuff where, like, I think one of my main takeaways from the Cloudbot thing was that it's gonna be hard for big labs to kind of replicate that just because of, like, you can't get the WhatsApp integration. Like, stuff like this, where I think with the Chinese models, the image models, the video models, they're very clearly, like, training on stuff they're not supposed to be training on. Like, the otter flying. Like, that's David Attenborough's voice. Like, you're not supposed to be able to do that.

24:55

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah.

25:22

Speaker C

Where, like, can Sora. Can OpenAI release Sora with that exact voice? Like, probably not. Like, maybe they can try to do it, but they're clearly going to face some legal repercussions. Where, like, China can actually just Kind of do it because they don't really have those.

25:23

Speaker A

Yeah. A lot of the American labs, it feels like they've been launching very aggressively and sort of making a fair use claim and probably engaging with lawyers from the big IP holders immediately and just sort of saying like, look, yes, like, we know you can prompt Disney characters. We are happy to pull that out. But also can you want to talk to our business development team?

25:38

Speaker C

Yeah. Like with open eye. You saw them actually do like a Disney deal where very quickly, China is not like, I'm pretty sure that you can go and see dance.

26:03

Speaker A

Yeah, see dance.

26:09

Speaker C

And just prompt like Mickey Mouse, you know, doing a little dance or whatever.

26:10

Speaker A

Will Smith fighting a spaghetti monster. Epic action film scene. Different cuts.

26:13

Speaker B

There you go. John, you wanted good. All you had to do was ask.

26:19

Speaker A

This is pretty real. I like that. Will Smith is just the benchmark forever.

26:22

Speaker B

And I have the old Will Smith spaghetti ready to go after this.

26:28

Speaker A

Okay.

26:33

Speaker B

All right. So this is February 2026.

26:34

Speaker A

Yeah, this is.

26:37

Speaker B

Let's go back in time.

26:38

Speaker A

That is a great shot. That's something you need to do in Houdini.

26:40

Speaker B

No longer pull up this next one we got going back to 2023.

26:43

Speaker A

China can one shot AI crime. Wow. This is the progression. Or is this.

26:47

Speaker C

I remember.

26:55

Speaker B

I remember to post this exact same thing and be like, this is going to change everything.

26:56

Speaker A

And it did.

27:01

Speaker B

And they were right. Yeah, they were right, but it's still funny.

27:01

Speaker A

And now it's just sitting there enjoying spaghetti.

27:04

Speaker B

I suppose we got to talk about straw. Mr. All's cooking. They're cooking and they're investing 1.4 billion to build out AI infrastructure in Sweden. Wow. Let's head over to Bloomberg. French AI startup Mistral is investing US$1.4 billion to build AI infrastructure in Sweden as it pushes to become the go to AI supplier for governments and enterprises in Europe. The data center will be located in a place that I can not pronounce, Borlange. The facility will house the advanced computing power to train and run Mistral's AI models and is scheduled to be operational from 2027. This is Mistral's first data center investment outside of France and the company is billing the build out as a move to strengthen European tech sovereignty. As political ties with Washington fray, governments in the region are increasingly wary of relying on Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet, which dominate AI infrastructure, data storage and cloud computing. Mistral, which develops AI models and hopes to be Europe's answer to OpenAI, says it can offer customers a fully European AI stack. This investment is A concrete step toward building independent capabilities in Europe dedicated to AI.

27:08

Speaker A

Their last round was led by ASML, $1.3 billion from the Dutch chip maker. That's a good deal.

28:15

Speaker B

They're cooking. They're cooking. This is the kind of thing that Macron should be highlighting. And they're announcing in the Financial Times that their revenue is now similar to grok.

28:21

Speaker A

Really?

28:32

Speaker B

Over 400 million.

28:33

Speaker A

Interesting. 400 million.

28:34

Speaker B

As Europe seeks AI independence, Jordi discusses dissing Macron caused domino effect. Mistral invests 1.4 billion.

28:35

Speaker A

You manifested it.

28:43

Speaker B

I did it. I inspired them to grind harder. Ackman makes $2 billion bet on Metta Bill Ackman's Pershing Square revealed a major new stake in Meta, making up up 10% of its portfolio, or about 2 billion. The firm sees Metta as a top beneficiary of AI boosting ads, content, and future products like wearables and digital assistants. I saw somebody had wired up. I don't think we got to it in the show, but they wired up open claw with their Meta headset.

28:44

Speaker A

Okay.

29:09

Speaker B

But effectively saying, like, hey, buy this product. And it would. It would go to Amazon and buy the product.

29:09

Speaker A

Wow.

29:14

Speaker B

And that is. That is the vision we've been talking about. That is the opportunity. Zuck wants you to be able to just be in the world shopping. Yep.

29:14

Speaker A

Meta has tried to get into commerce so many times. There's been a lot of back and forth about, you know, should you be able to just click and check out directly on Meta properties. It's never fully developed and you have to imagine that they have all the biz dev horsepower in the world to try and go and do that. But for some reason that has. That has continued to live in the domain of brands in Amazon, on Shopify sites, etc. Sign up for our newsletter@tbpn.com and we will see you tomorrow at 11am Pacific shark. Goodbye.

29:21