Pivot Predictions: Scott’s Big Tech Stock Pick, The Next Bailout, and President JD Vance?

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As I predicted last week, as I predicted, I knew this day was coming and how it would go down. You did. You predicted it. I did. A new biography from Cara Swisher and dot, dot, dot, I was right. But the thing is I was right. Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Hi Scott. We're here for your Super Bowl, our annual predictions episode where we look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready? So ready. Yeah. Okay. You have a lot. I know. I've got a few too. You do. Listen up to both of us. Okay. We're starting things off on the subject of AI because we have to. We're obligated by legally to do so. First let's listen to a prediction you made on last year's prediction podcast. 2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be open video, open AI and Nvidia right now control arguably 90% of all traffic and AI, 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those. Answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new wind tell and people will start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world. Well, interesting. That was absolutely true. Except now it's code red at open AI how things have moved. And obviously Nvidia is still on top, but facing some possible competition in 2026. Any thoughts on that? Yeah. I don't know if that was that provocative a prediction because it was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is that every year I have a big tech stock pick. And last year I picked alphabet and it's up 68% since the prediction. But it was already sort of forming. But yeah, they continue to sort of be the duopoly. What's interesting is similar to wind tell, people are coming for them. Right. Very good point. Across, you know, on both dimensions, but especially open AI. I like your analogy that open AI might be the Netscape of our generation. Yeah. I've always waiting. Was it Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now. It was Google for a little bit, but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. Any of you are right about that stock pick. Great one. Time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026. Scott, you've got a prediction about AI stocks. Yeah. I think there's going to be a major drawdown and it's because it all goes back to geopolitics. Essentially, Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in the second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy and they've now said they're now in the closest thing they could get into short of a hot war. Basically, China is totally diversifying away from the US in terms of exports. Their export volumes are up 40% since 2019, while imports are only up 1%. Over the same period, the US share of China's exports fell from 17% to 10%. The reason that that sets the context here, I think China's about to go for the jugular here and I think that they're going to massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping. The point is these open-weight models, including QN3 max, these models are just much cheaper, lower power consumption and everyone from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. I think essentially China's going to say, okay, the fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant bet on AI, including the S&P and his entire economy on AI. We're just going to start dumping AI into the US market. As a result, I think you're going to see a massive re-rating down. Also, the harsh truth is these open-weight models coming out of China are getting to technical parity and the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the leader at 50% of the price and that's what they're doing. I think you're going to see massive pressure placed on open AI and I think that is going to another US-based models and I think that's going to cause a re-rating down of these stocks and even 80% of A16Z startups use Chinese open-source models. Anyways, I think we're going to see a massive re-rating down of the magnificent seven at the hands of AI dumping from China. Yeah, that means data centers go down the whole thing. Oof, ouch, watch out below. All right, mine is in an area that I keep thinking about a lot. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it, which is robotics. I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough. I agree. I really do think that we are not paying attention to what all the innovations happening there is because we get focused on Elon's stupid, optimist robots that are running around doing our laundry. I think in manufacturing in all kinds of areas, robotics are going to really start to become really interesting. Cars, I consider that robotics. The smarts of them combined with robotics is really where the big changes we're going to see in our society. I just do. I don't mean, again, a bot making your coffee, but it's not going to look like what you think because I think it's really hard, as many robotics people tell you, to make a handwork. Where we're focusing is so anthropomorphic that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll be robotics in lots and lots and lots of things. Especially when combined with AI, in Korea, these essentially Ectoskeletons now have AI embedded in them and they work so much better. You can see it being applied all over the place. These are braces. They look like braces and before they were mechanical that would help you walk. Now AI helps decide how you do it. I think they're nothing short of miraculous. That's where you're going to see some. That's my area in AI is focusing on its applications in a wide range of different products across robotics. I love that. Just add some texture that I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be in AI applications, specifically autonomous, specifically Waymo. As you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, will come back to that. They have been early to that, by the way. Next category, business. Scott, let's listen to a prediction you made back in April. I think you're going to see in the next one or two weeks a cadre of Fortune 500 CEOs, Republicans, stand up, business leaders stand up and say, okay, enough already. While you all claim he's playing 4D chest at this point, we're worried he's going to start eating the pieces. Not so much. Although Jamie Dimon sort of yelled at Maria Bartirama the other day, but not so much. Yeah. Yeah, I don't have any comment. They really have turned out to be profiles in non-courage. That's really something else. Yeah, I thought, and I still don't get it quite frankly. I still don't understand. They're starting a little bit. What's the point of having all this money? If you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy, I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are bulletproof. What are they worried about? Yeah, agree. I think it's just one of the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it surprised everybody, a lot of people. Anyway, you've got an investment prediction here, and then I have one. Go ahead. I mean my stock pick? Yes. So my big tech stock pick every year, I pick a big tech stock pick. My stock pick this year is, and when I say outperform, if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. What I'm saying is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of down 50. My big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer. Today, it's only up 7%. And also, its revenue per employee is down 28% versus up 49, 56, and 62 at MetaAlphabet and Microsoft respectively because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in, let's see above what Kara said, robotics. But what you're going to see here is that they've started laying off employees. I'm not saying that's a good thing, but Google's laid off 2,500 Meta, 4,600 Tesla, 14,000. Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is that Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue at its retail group, which is as big its top line revenue business with no increase in employees. And I think that chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And Amazon is really the Ford of the 21st century. And that is over several years Ford was able to take the time to manufacture a car down 90%. And Amazon, just since its acquisition of KivaRobots, has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you want to talk about your prediction around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. China has 2 million. The US, excluding Amazon has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots. So Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots, is the rest of the nation combined. So they have made an enormous bet and typically more margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media group, where you have forced to advertise or from its cloud group. But you're going to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group. It's also, I don't want to say cheap right now, but reasonably priced. It typically trains at a P multiple over the last five years of 58. Now it's at 33. And its enterprise value to EBITDA is usually 23. And now it's 17. So in some, I think it's fairly, it's a fair value right now. And I think you're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics. So my big tech stock pick for 26 is Amazon. So Amazon, it is really interesting. There's a lot of IPOs coming up. We've talked about them SpaceX, a bunch of others. And I think that's all very interesting. But you talked about that there was a lot of worry about the stock market declines a couple of years ahead of the decline, right? I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have more of a stock market downturn before that. I don't like to call these as I'm not an expert in this way, but investors feel very fragile, it seems like, and anything affects them. And I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has sort of against all the odds and all the deficits and everything. It seems to ignore that, but I don't think it could ignore it for two or three more years. I think sometime in 2026, maybe right after the midterms, which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to, obviously, this year, we may start to see maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump. I think that has helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does things like you were talking about, you're going to see where you're going to see the declines are in these tech companies. So I just feel like there's going to be a lot of volatility around the companies that you talked about at the first place. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break and we come back more predictions. Support for this show comes from DeleteMe. 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They had bet money on how bombings in Israel would play out on polymarket. After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than that to finish you. Betting on the Iran War on Today Explained. OK, Scott, let's talk politics. I'm not sure we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025 politics. We did OK. We did get one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what I said in November of 2024. I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for too long. Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around. And I had a cold end. Let's hear what you had to say on the matter in February. I think Doge is going to be over and done by the end of the year. OK, we got that one right. We just did. We just knew it. Yeah, but they saved $2 billion. Yeah, you know, he saved nothing. He killed people. He's he's he's about to unwittingly and I'm not saying he meant to do this, but he will probably end up on some list along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler, people will start to aggregate lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list. But when you look at the hundreds of thousands of people whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack or a cutoff of USAID, they're going to end up on some of those lists. Yeah. And I think we got the Doge thing right. They're still there. Some of them are still there. But, you know, you know, look, it's fine to want to save money and be more efficient. But the way he did it was so ham-handed and cruel and pointless. I met some USAID people last night at an event and they were doing astonishing work. And it was all soft diplomacy, you know, soft power and stuff. Just the damage he's done because he's such a like demented addict of some sort, it was really, really stupid. And I think he just wanted to break like me break thing by kind of thing. And it wasn't thoughtful. There's a thoughtful ways to figure out how to be more efficient. And he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket because he's such a toxic figure. And Trump will use him as he wants. But Trump certainly if only if he has use for him will he be around. OK, I've already made one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. I don't know. I feel like we're going to have President JD Vance by the end of 2026. I get it. But he is the vice president. You think this ends his presidency prematurely. Yes. Well, I still think that. That would so I can see him being impeached in Congress. He would need 66 votes or 67 in the Senate. I don't mean like that. You think he resigns? I think he's sicker than we then we realize. I think he's very robust looking. But I think there's all manner of I've seen more and more doctors like this. Is it healthy? I don't know. Look, his family stuck around for a while being his dad stuck around for a while with dementia. That's for sure. But I do think there's just I don't know. I just feel like I think they're going to try to give Vance an attempt to be president. And I think the I think they'll run out of reasons to keep him there. And I think if he loses badly in the midterms, I think that's he's no longer useful, let's just say. And so I don't mean killing or anything like that. I just think he's old. He's just old, Scott, as you said, biology is undefeated. OK, Scott, give us I have one more. But then we'll actually do mine. I would like to see in politics the shutting up of tech CEOs everywhere. I mean, when have we seen like, can you imagine the head of Lockheed behaving like Alex Carp did in that recent New York Times thing with our favorite Canadian Andrew Russ Serkin? He looked demented screaming on the stage. Did you see that performance? Yeah, I don't. What was going on there? Well, they thought he was on cocaine. I have no idea. He looked crazy. That's all I know. Like, who knows? They were making all kinds of cocaine jokes, but he is not. I don't believe that. A little of the Bolivian marching powder. No, I just think he's just like that. A little of the devil's dandruff. My experiences, he's just like that. And now you're getting a fucking taste of what I've had to listen to over the decades. But I think these people, like if I see Jensen Wong in a stupid coat anymore, like when do we when was the head of Lockheed around all this time? When was the head of like these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while? Like seriously, they just can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually. And so I would predict they need to shut up. They won't, but that's what I would like to happen. What is your prediction for you? You have an interesting one about the predictions market. Yeah. So, well, one, I think the next bailout is coming. There was a bailout at the banks. I actually think that was a good idea. There was a bailout at the airlines, which was socialism and stupid. We should have let them go out of business. All these airline CEOs who used all their excess cash flow when things were good to do stock buybacks and collect 150 million in compensation. And then COVID hits and we're all in this together. And they got bailouts. But the next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Altman, Jensen Wong, Sachin Nadella, basically the S&P is now 40 percent, the Magnificent 10. Trump is only able to get away with the shit he's getting away with because the S&P is up 13 percent. So his entire presidency in our entire economy is now one big giant bet on AI. There is no way they can keep up with these expectations. So what they will do is come to Washington hat in hand and they will call it something else like a chips act and they will have government back debt purchases of these chips and these data centers to prop up an AI market. Can we get Jensen Wong's leather coat in exchange? I should have it. It's about to become a multi-trillion dollar leather coat. But I mean, every industry now, the energy industry, 10 percent of the earnings call mention AI. Financials, one in five earnings calls are now talking about it. And also, if you look at the biggest tech stocks from peak to trough, Alphabet was down 65 percent, Microsoft 70 percent, Meta lost three quarters of its value from 2021 to 2022. Apple lost 83 percent of its value in the dot com implosion. Nvidia lost 90 percent in dot com. Amazon lost 95 percent peak to trough. The problem is, if these companies do what these companies do in a volatile environment, the economy goes into a tailspin and Trump is no longer allowed to bomb or to murder people in the water or send in a mass secret police into American towns. So he will decide to prop up this industry with what is effectively a bailout that will be positioned as growth. But essentially, this the next bailout is coming. Poly market and Calci, I just can't get over how genius these businesses are because you have the ultimate marketing and that is whenever there's a big decision to be made or a big issue, we're starting to look at what these companies think because they leverage that they can be so game, Scott. I'm so nervous about the gaming aspect and kind of the sick ass. Like that's bad. How many kids are died in the died in the shooting that kind of stuff? Well, oh, no, there's bigger concern. Well, OK, first off, let's look at the opportunity for insider trading. It's getting down to, will this pitch be faster or slower than 90 miles an hour? So, OK, Eric Adams, well, Eric Adams dropped out of the race in the next seven days. And they say, oh, no, it's three to one. He doesn't find Eric Adams and I'm eventually going to drop out. Why don't I raise 10 million bucks and drop out the next day? And as a severance payment, collect $20 million. I mean, it's just and the unfortunate thing is most of us don't have access to this insider information. So we are wrong. Wrong end of a trade in asymmetrically. And also when states legalize gambling and this is it's not really gambling. I like these things. I don't I can't decide if I like these things or I don't like these things. I agree. I agree. Some of it's really interesting at the same time. I'm like, so easy to game, so easy to go sick. Right. Well, and again, it's attempting to legitimize gambling. You're not investing here. You're gambling. But at the same time, I just appreciate how powerful these businesses are. Also, I'm going to start incorporating either polymarket or calcium data into a lot of my media. I just think it's fascinating what the wisdom of crowdsinks. And if you look at these things, they are fantastic prediction engines. They usually get it. They usually get it right. So for now, like, you know what I mean? It feels like so I feel like the Russian mob is like, how shall we handle this? Well, OK, along those lines, the majority of the bets in the New York mayoral race came out of the Middle East. So you don't think they're going to start using it? Because if you say mom, Donny is up 95 percent, that is really good for mom, Donny. Yeah. And so why wouldn't you weigh in and start manipulating these things? Anyways, and. Pay attention, people. There is. And also just the downside, first off, my mom was a docent at the Bellagio Hotel. And she's come. I love that word, docent. Go ahead. She used to come home armed with these fun facts. And one of them was kind of sad is that gambling has the highest suicide rate. So one in seven men who are who gamble are addicted. It's got the highest suicide rate because if you develop an addiction of math, people start to notice in their way. And you can leverage your home, spend your kids college fund and nobody knows. And people feel as if they have no way out. In addition, bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling. So there are some real externalities here. But having said that, I am fascinated by these markets. It's going to be the vice of the year is going to be the predictions market. And I also think that they will be two of the biggest. One or both of them is going to go public in 2026. And it's going to be one of the biggest. It's going to be one of the best IPOs of 26. These things are a phenomena. Can you see this going so fucking sideways? I'm going to bet on if Kara or Scott is going to die first. And then I'll kill you. Well, again, insider trading here. Well, I'll have Larry kill you, our producer for, see what I mean? The opportunity for insider trade. And is it even insider trading? How does sports betting, if you're a pitcher on your last leg here and you're about to like not make any more money and you're finally up from AAA ball and you're not going to make any more money, you just have your brother in the stands go pitch it slower than 90 miles an hour on this one, pitch it faster and you can probably walk away with another million bucks on that game. And I'm not even sure if it's illegal yet. I like that you go to sports and you don't go to murder. Muda like I do. Yeah, I don't know. There's cheaper ways to get someone killed, probably. But I know, but it's game. Everything's game of thought. But you want to talk about it's already impacting. Okay. Caesars down 38 percent this year. Vegas, every Vegas company that's publicly traded is down between 19 and 38 percent this year. Because why? Oh, and by the way, I just love the fact that we've lost four billion dollars in Vegas because Canadians are no longer going. But it's our manufacturing base has been absolutely reinvigorated. Jesus Christ, what fucking idiots? Not fucking idiots. By the way, folks, 80 percent of people don't want to be in manufacturing. You can't bring your dog to the factory floor. Anyway, where I was headed with this is there's fewer people in Vegas because now Vegas is in you. Vegas is everywhere now. So you're really going to see these terms struggle and you're going to see an enormous transition of capital. Though you can't get a massive breakfast bar. That's true for two dollars. All right, Scott, let's go in a quick break. We come back. Entertainment predictions. What's up, everybody? It's Cam Hayward, your Steelers captain and host of Not Just Football. And this week we brought on the legend Lil Wayne is in the building. Greatest rapper alive, certified football head and now running his own sports agency, Young Money Sports. We got to know how it started, what the vision is and how Travis Hunter ended up choosing Young Money. We went deep in the football, the Packers, the draft coming to Pittsburgh, NIL and what it really takes to build an athlete's brand from the ground up. We talked music, the Carter six, what's coming next and stories you have never heard before. And we got into his legacy, New Orleans, cash money, I love years old and 25 years at the top. And what still drives him. This one is different. This one is special in Pittsburgh. The draft is coming home. Grab your ticket for Cam Hayward's draft party on April 23rd at NotJustFootball.com and use code Mr. Carter. That is M R C A R T E R for a pre-sale discount. And follow us on socials. Let's get it. Support for pivot comes from Anthropoc. Success doesn't come easy. 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That's Claude.ai slash pivot and check out Claude Pro, which includes access to all of the features mentioned in today's episode. Claude.ai slash pivot. For a brief period of time in the beginning of the pandemic, a time that I'm very sorry to make you have to remember, there was this hot new app that promised to reinvent the way that we thought about social media forever. Clubhouse was going to be the thing. And this week on Version History, our chat show about the most interesting and important and best and worst products in tech history, we're talking about why Clubhouse took off and then ultimately why it went away. That's on Version History, available on YouTube and wherever you get podcasts. OK, Scott, next up, we're talking about media and entertainment. Last year, you preached it would be a banner year for podcasters. Let's listen to what I said about our favorite movie. Wicked for Good was amazing, I have to say. It's a play. It's a movie. It's a sequel. It's like going to be an enormous thing. Oh, God, there's a sequel now? Yes. Make them stop. No, literally. I think they should outlaw sequels. Huge box office this year. Yeah. It's not quite, it hasn't quite reached the first one, but yeah, it's huge. Just so you know, it's $375 million. Both the chips are just fucking awful. And let's get songs. That may be. Oh, God. I don't care. Oh, my God, it's a helicopter. We're in a quasi-Demi parasocial age. Doesn't matter. And they weigh 45 fucking pounds. The other great role models for 15 years. I know. That is an issue. Oh, my God. That is, I would say that is an issue worth the same. I would say that is an issue worth discussing. I don't usually like to talk about people's looks, but in that case. They're disappearing. All of them, the entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, I agree. It's concerning. Let's say concerning. But let me say I was right. You were never right about what's popular. About media? Oh, no. Is that Pluribus? My prediction is that all World War II and color documentaries are the biggest media news. Okay, I understand, Grant. But listen, you're right about Pluribus. Oh, my God. Pluribus is good. Vince Gilligan. I'm going to say HDP and John Cena. I'm not wondering. This is going in many ways. Well, it's HDP. I think I'm on it. Is that human growth hormone? I mean, I have longer erections and a little starter in the gym, but see your doctor. See your doctor. Human derived protein. You're not caught up, I guess. Human what? Oh, this is from your secret show on CNN. No, this is Pluribus. Oh, Pluribus. Okay. People. Soil and green is people. Anyway, by the time this airs, we'll know more. Let me just say it's also a banner year for dyspeptic lesbians on television. So that's really good. Difficult lesbians are the trend. And I sort of pioneered that. Anyway. Speaking of lesbians, has Emily Rodacos asked about me? Not yet. Not yet. Not yet. I'll let you know. I'll let you know. Anyway, probably sometime in... She's going to play it that way. How about sometime in the 12th of never? All right, Scott, you've got a prediction about the future of Hollywood and so do I. You go first. Okay. So short from video and AI Meteor Strike Hollywood, AI won, especially the Ellison's get a hold of Warner. You have to wait seven minutes after the Fantastic Four just to get through the credits. More people worked on the Fantastic Four than work at Reddit and slightly fewer than Palantir. The means of production has to come way down and AI is just going to... I mean, everybody is so sentimental for theaters. The theaters have not come back. Basically theaters are down by a third since COVID. It just hasn't recovered. You're also going to see 70% of Americans, 10 to 24 years old, watch TV or movies on YouTube or TikTok. And then what's crazy is these short form video platforms. The Kids Diana Show has 137 million subscribers, which is, I think, more subscribers than Disney Plus. The great is that Meg Whitman and Jeff Katzenberg might have been right about short form video. They were just kind of ahead of their time. They didn't have the capital. But we have trained our brains to be so short form and dopa hungry that these short form video series of three and six minute little mini episodes out of China seem to be taking off and getting real share. But back to the original one, AI is coming for Hollywood and all the virtue signaling and how precious they are. It's not going to mean a fucking thing. Economics, to your point, and capitalism will win out here. But basically AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood and be, I think these short form video platforms that I had not heard of before are about to make a real dent. And just some of the titles, my favorite titles of some of the people who worked on the Fantastic Four. Molly Cook was an assistant data wrangler. You know what she's going to call you. That's important. That's important. They had a home economist. They had, I mean, it's just hilarious. Vehicles art director, junior petty cash buyer. Oh, no, no, Olivia, Olivia Somery was a food stylist. Is it all women that you want to get out of work? But go ahead. Have a man. Have a man. Is there a man in your list? I don't see gender. I'm not looking at this and going man or woman. I think you're right about both sex and race. Food styling is also important, just so you know. But it will be all AI, just so you know, food stylists. They're going to AI this shit. But I would agree with you on both these things. You know what's interesting? Many years ago, there was a show called Quarter Life. You've never heard of it. The guy who did 30-something, Ed Zwick. I think that's who did it. Love that show. Right, 30-something. But he had a show that was, I think, YouTube only called Quarter Life and it was short 15-minute shows. And at the time, it failed. But boy, I remember thinking this is the way, you know, and same thing with Jeff Katzenberg. Like, it was right. It just was wrong at the time. But this Quarter Life was really, go back and find it if you can, because it was an attempt at short form video drama over these, Quarter Life was people who were 25 years old. And they were all attractive and fucking each other. But it was really interesting. And it was far too early for people's tastes to get there. But now it has. I watch mostly short form video now, I have to say. Where do you watch it? Oh, on threads or Instagram, usually. I don't like TikTok. It's too... But I like the pace of Instagram, I have to say. Anyway, if I'm watching short form video, they're quite good. The sexiest thing you can say in your 30s is, I already took tomorrow off. Anyway, I have a prediction. It's sort of dovetails because of what Scott was talking about and because the economics just don't work. They don't work, everybody. Hollywood consolidation, just, you know, not just AI, but how everything is made is going to... With these new owners, and there's going to be more deals. And I know you're all horrified about Netflix, but get ready, my friends. There's so much going to happen. And there are questions of creativity and how people get paid, but there's just going to be less people to make it. And it's the end. This is that moment for Hollywood. It happened already, but it's really happening now. And you're going to see enormous consolidation. The government could push it back as much as you want. But you're not farmers, by the way. You're not getting $12 billion in bailouts the way Trump will do that. You will not get bailouts. You will just get gone. And so I think this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable paramount. If it doesn't get it, it's going to have to merge. Comcast's going to have to buy some meals. Disney's got to move. You know, and all the tech companies, if they want to stay in this area, need more stuff for AI. Imagine a world like Scott talks about this AI meter. Like, hey, I like West Wing. I'd like another season. Like they can do that. They will be able to do that. And it will be at first stupid, and then later be very good. And so you're going to see all manner of stuff having to do with AI being fed into all these things. And, you know, even though the paramount people can't give specifics of what's happening, because they haven't thought of it, they just like to say the word AI a lot over and over again. There are going to, this is an industry ripe for this kind of thing. Too bad. I'm sorry. I feel bad for you. But thanks for the movies. And by the way, Wicked, $375 million. Okay. Okay. Streaming has sort of been the zeitgeist of my life. It used to be Netflix and chillin' out my age. It's HBO Max and lower your expectations. You know, I think you're online a lot more. You watch a lot of short-film videos. I can tell. I do. I do. You put them out a lot. And so do I. 100%. I can't sit for a show now. I like to watch them on TV. I have a harder time. Although, again, Pluribus, I love it. Oh my God. I've been forced to watch the worst program in the world. It's with Shiv from Succession about a kidnapping. Oh, I heard that was good. It's awful. These people are so awful. It's all these rich people. It's like a Chamber of Commerce show on Chicago. Everyone in Chicago is rich and has amazing homes. It's an after-Chicago. Okay, but who forced you? Who has put you a cock or orange in front of the TV? Someone keeps putting it on my fucking TV and I get drawn into it. You think he's gonna watch it? And then I got sucked into another one, the evil or the devil inside of me where I gotta give it Claire Danes. The beast in me. Her chin should be nominated for an Oscar. Her chin starts vibrating when she's emotional. It's literally like it is her such her go-to. I love it. I love Claire. Everything Claire Danes does. No, she's very... Fantasticly. Yeah. Anyway, anyhow, I'm so sorry you're being forced to watch these things. All right, Scott, one, someday you will be actually. That's another trend. That'll be for next year. One more quick break and then it's time for Predictions Host's Choice. Attention. Attention, rail travelers, platform paces, window gazers and arm rest negotiators. Have you heard? The big rail fare freeze is here. Railfares have been frozen across England until March 2027 on standard class tickets, including off-peak, anytime and season tickets. For more information, visit nationalrail.co.uk slash faresfreeze. Season, season, exclusions apply. Okay, Scott, now is the time to make a prediction on whatever we want. The world is our oysters. By the way, sand oysters. We love them. I'm going to go first. Okay? I'm going to go first. As I said, as you noted, you've got Claire Danes on the beast in me. You've got Rhea Seahorn in Pluribus. There's a new hunting wives coming. They're not just difficult. Lesbians are murderous. Okay? There's going to be so much lesbian content. Angry lesbians with guns, angry lesbians who are upset, angry lesbians who are fighting the hive mind. This is a trend that I like. I like lesbians running shit and taking names and shutting people down. I love Rhea Seahorn as Carol. Hello, Carol. She's my favorite character of all time. Everyone's like, oh, she's such a bass and I'm like, I love her. More angry, dispeptic, go fuck yourself lesbians for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you. I'm a big fan of streaming video with lesbian content. Go watch it because it's sexy as fuck. Let me just say. Really? Yes, it is. I'm Britney Snow. There are guns. There's a lot of lesbian sex the way kind you like. I'll see it twice. I'm just saying. Angry, gun-totin, dispeptic, fuck the hive mind. I don't like AI lesbians are the trend of 2026. Thank you. All right. Mine's not as cool as this. Best investment you don't have access to is TikTok. Oh, yeah. Essentially. Did you get shares? Have you gotten in there yet? No, I'm a Democrat. Okay. So it's going to Dell, some Saudi person. I forget who it's going to, but it's not going to anyone who wants it or anyone who's a Democrat, but they're basically Trump's forcing them to sell it for $14 billion. If you think about the fact that 50% of the earnings have to go back to China, it's effectively a valuation of $28 billion. If you assign the same multiple that you would assign to Alphabet or Meta, it's worth $120 billion. Alternatively, these guys are going to buy something and then get 300 to 400% return within 12 months. This is pure socialism meets cronyism meets autocracy, but again, it's happening. But you know it's unfair for the Ellicens not to get everything. Anyway, sorry. There you go. That's a good one. So you won't get any. There's no way you can scoot your way in there. You usually scoot your way in. No, not on this one. Really? Yeah, no, you can. Only for friends and friends. Yeah, literally. Dells and, yeah. Pots. Yeah, you don't have access. Amazing. You don't even get a little bit of things. No, I'm allowed to be on TikTok. I'm starting to fucking hate TikTok, by the way. Me too. I got to tell you that's another prediction. I think Mark Zuckerberg, it makes a better product. I hate to find it. Yeah, you like threads and reels more? I like them, but they're very pleasing. They're very pleasant. I have a great time. I find news. I still like Blue Sky too, but I have to say I like it. I'm on Blue Sky almost never now. I know. As your usage. Because they yell at you a lot. They yell at you. I'm using it. Do they yell at me? Thank God I'm not on there. I can't handle that right now. Yeah, they yell at you. It's the left yelling at you over there. The right is yelling us over Twitter. The right is actually threatening. I'm not on Twitter. Is it really? I assume they're not even talking about us because I'm on over there. No, they are. I dropped in the other. I was like, oh, you fuckers. Like, oh, go away. We don't care about you. We broke up with you. So just back to TikTok, US at the price that these investors, these Republican donors are getting it, it's valuing TikTok US at less than this company called Extra Space Storage, 7-Eleven, Carnival Cruises, Ryanair, or Kellogg's. So, wow, what a great deal, right? If you look at this thing, again, if you just do the math here, it's just insane what they're going to get to buy this thing at. Anyways, I'm really pissed off about this. Let's please by all means give Warner the Ellicens because they don't get enough. Their US ad revenue is $12 billion. You get a 10x multiple price of sales of Alphabet, which isn't growing as fast as TikTok US. Yep. It's worth $120 billion and they're getting it for $28. These grifters. These grifters. Scott's Maddy's not in on it, really. That's right. Anyway, Scott, that is the show. Your instructions are to go watch Hunting Wise. You'll be happy. Okay. Happy New Year to everybody. We've had a great year this year at Pivot and we love you and we look forward to more in 2026. Please read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie and your Todd engineered this episode. Ronnie Poladaro edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mr. Vera, and Dan Chalon to shot Kroa's Vox Media's Executive Producers podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.