El Orden Mundial

El Orden Mundial: La nueva tesis que cobra fuerza sobre el fallo del Supremo sobre los aranceles de Trump

18 min
Feb 22, 2026about 2 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

El episodio analiza la sentencia del Tribunal Supremo estadounidense que anuló los aranceles de Trump por inconstitucionales, la reacción agresiva del presidente y sus planes para contrarrestar la decisión. También examina la escalada militar en Irán, la nueva Junta de Paz de Trump como alternativa a la ONU, y sus implicaciones geopolíticas.

Insights
  • Trump busca constantemente explotar vacíos legales institucionales para eludir el control de poderes, incluso cuando enfrenta derrotas judiciales
  • La sentencia del Supremo puede beneficiar a Trump a mediano plazo al permitirle aplicar aranceles por otras vías sin revertir completamente su posición
  • La escalada militar en Irán responde a una estrategia de distracción de Trump tras la derrota judicial y busca reforzar la legitimidad del régimen iraní
  • La Junta de Paz es una estructura personal de Trump diseñada para gestionar conflictos internacionales y beneficiar sus intereses empresariales privados
  • El régimen iraní percibe el conflicto armado como única vía de supervivencia frente a negociaciones que lo debilitarían políticamente
Trends
Erosión de instituciones democráticas mediante explotación de vacíos legales y presión sobre poderes independientesMilitarización como herramienta de distracción política en contextos de crisis domésticaCreación de estructuras multilaterales alternativas a organismos internacionales tradicionales controladas por actores privadosIntegración de intereses empresariales privados en política exterior y resolución de conflictosPolarización dentro del Partido Republicano sobre límites constitucionales del poder ejecutivoImpacto económico de aranceles generales en déficit fiscal estadounidense y presión inflacionariaDinámicas de conflicto regional donde actores locales (Israel, Irán) aprovechan posicionamiento de potencias globalesManipulación de datos de opinión pública y rechazo de instituciones de medición independientes
Topics
Sentencia del Tribunal Supremo sobre aranceles de TrumpConstitucionalidad de poderes de emergencia nacionalSeparación de poderes en Estados UnidosAranceles comerciales y déficit fiscalEscalada militar en IránEstrategia de distracción política mediante conflicto exteriorJunta de Paz como alternativa a la ONUIntereses empresariales privados en política exteriorElecciones de medio mandato (midterms) en noviembreRégimen iraní y negociaciones nuclearesPosicionamiento de Israel en conflictos regionalesReconstrucción de GazaCooperación multilateral y CERNÍndices de popularidad presidencialComportamiento autoritario y mafioso en instituciones
Companies
CERN
Mencionado como ejemplo de organización multilateral que demuestra que la cooperación internacional funciona
Gallup
Institución de sondeos que dejó de publicar índices de popularidad presidencial tras presión de Trump
People
Donald Trump
Presidente estadounidense cuya política de aranceles fue anulada por el Supremo; busca explotar vacíos legales
Tony Blair
Expresidente británico que respalda la estrategia de Trump en Gaza y la Junta de Paz
Benjamin Netanyahu
Primer ministro israelí que presiona por conflicto regional que favorezca sus intereses electorales
Emmanuel Macron
Presidente francés que criticó la Junta de Paz por carecer de sentido
Quotes
"Tengo permitido cortar cualquier comercio. Puedo destruir el comercio, puedo destruir el país. Incluso tengo permitido imponer un embargo que destruya un país extranjero."
Donald TrumpReacción a sentencia del Supremo
"Trump es el presidente, o, dijo que no traería a Estados Unidos a otro conflicto. Como los iraníes pueden, de alguna manera, traer al final de Estados Unidos y empezar a enviar soldados muertos a Estados Unidos, Trump tiene un problema."
LocutorAnálisis de escalada en Irán
"La Junta de Paz es una estructura personal de Trump diseñada para gestionar problemas internacionales y apoyar sus empresas, por ejemplo, en el caso de Gaza, en la reconstrucción de Gaza."
LocutorAnálisis de Junta de Paz
"El régimen iraní ha entendido que la única forma en que pueden sobrevivir es entrando en un conflicto directo con Estados Unidos."
LocutorAnálisis de estrategia iraní
Full Transcript
In Onda Cero, Julia in la Onda, with Julia Otero. There's a copy of the audience that asks a section for sending audio insults to the world. It says José Bluesca. A week, a week, a week, a week. Yes, yes. I remember the question. A day, Jose. Yes. I remember the question. What of the following countries is a member of the CERN, which is an institute of physics so powerful, Well, no se llama así, ¿no? Se llama, ¿cómo se llama? Organización para la Investigación Nuclear, básicamente Vale, pues eso Yo lo iba a decir en francés, pero... No, estaba pensando... En chino, en chino Anda no, se han venido arriba Bueno, ¿es Brasil, es Marruecos o es Arabia Saudí? Podéis votar o en Instagram o en Twitter Porque en Blue Sky ya sabéis que no podemos ver esa... No se puede hacer la encuesta Bueno, no ha terminado la semana bien para Donald Trump The Supreme Court knows everyone who has fallen against the famous arancels that Trump imposes last year. I'm sure you remember those images of the President with a large cartel, very analogical, like he. And he was detailing the arancels that he was going to pay for countries. Well, the judges said that it was not legal because he was able to apply a law, the law of emergency national, to be able to apply it, and that's not the situation of the United States. No there is no emergency national. And what curious is that even magistrados conservators that Trump had named him, have voted against that Contándoos what is exactly the sentencing Yes, there has been a lot of regocijos including the Isles of the Pingüines, which also put the arancels As you say, there has been a rechazo to Trump 6-3, that is, that in the Supreme Court no has been adjusted, but there is a certain no-consenso, but there is a lot of wide in which this basically is not adjusted right, no is legal including magistrados that could consider themselves afines at least. This is one of the escasas derrotes that Trump had in the Supreme Court. And what has been argumentated to rechazar these arancels? Well, Trump is taking a little bit to a law of 1977 where there are some, so to say, holes for certain materials exteriors to basically regulate them without having to pass by the Congress. In fact, that's the case that Trump doesn't mention the arancels, although then it applies to them. And what he said the tribunal is that basically that it cannot be done. That in the moment in which there are arancels, and that it is something puntual or something super of emergency, but it is a political structure, it has to go through the Congress, where it is a lot more farragoso. In fact, this is interesting, also to think about the fisures or grits that in the Republican Party, There have been a sector of the Republican Party, not very large, because we know Trump has been colonized, but there have been a sector of the Republican Party that has been able to do and that has even pushed, has influenced, for that he's been detained this political. But we know that Trump tries to play a lot, tries to play a lot, tries to play a lot with the holes, tries to play a lot of institutions. In fact, the majority of the hechos that have Trump are institucional. It's a bit what he seeks to do, basically, to break that game of contrapoders that exists in the United States. and when the Supreme Court came to say this is illegal, he already announced another new battery of general a increase of general to compensate this because now what they have to do because they are looking at the numbers and of course, the aranceles that they have paid all this time in a legal way, what do we do with them? The money that they have paid That are almost 200 million That maybe they have to devolver the US to all those who have paid and in the moment in the US, recordemos que es deficitario, quiero decir, que le hace un roto muy importante a sus cuentas, porque 200 mil millones, aunque sea de Estados Unidos, es bastante dinero, ¿no? Entonces tiene un poco ese problema de, bueno, a nivel retroactivo, cómo se gestiona esta ilegalidad. Ha sido tremendo ver cu ha sido la reacci de Trump al conocer la sentencia del Tribunal Supremo Por supuesto no lo acepta ha insultado a los jueces La furia y la ira que le ha provocado ni siquiera la ha podido disimular Ha respondido con muchísima agresividad. Miren lo que dijo ayer al poco de conocer la sentencia. Tengo permitido cortar cualquier comercio. Puedo destruir el comercio, puedo destruir el país. I even have allowed to impose a embargo that destroy a foreign country. I can do whatever I want. I have allowed to destroy the country. I can't pay any dollar. I can't charge one dollar. It's terrible. It's that, even if I put an example of a exaggerated example, that I can't verbalize, that I can't tell the world what's going on, I can't destroy any country. It's that nobody would pronounce in their own judgment a phrase like this. It's that I think that no private would do it. It's that what does it do in public? So, what will it do now? Because they have to do it in the decision. How will it go out of this? Well, it's a bit of what's interesting. Recordemos that Trump, his political function is very basic. It works all in relations of force and also in terms of, normally, no auto-limitization. It's to say, if I can do it, I will do it. Because basically it allows me to do that. No I have no court-pisa or moral, ethical, political to do it. And we also know, from the ICE in Minnesota, to the Aranceles, to the border border with Mexico, that Trump is also looking constantly, we will see in November with the midterms, basically what legal hole he can do to do that he wants to do. Even if he has to press or put in certain contradictions or situations delicates to other powers, he will do it. Because at the end, he considers that he has to prevail over the rest. I am convinced that he will find new holes, new points of pressure to press the Congress, to press the Supreme Court, which we are elected judges of the form of vitality. Although he has elected some, many, well, all are elected of vitality. There is a little, not the irony of the system, but in the end, he has elected him, which in good measure, in many respects, are the last barrier that the system has to protect. There is one thing that I was reading yesterday, and there is one who says that in reality this is, and for the audience that are interested, let's turn a turn, is that it's a capote that they're throwing the Supreme Court to Donald Trump to give a exit, because the aranceles are having a very big impact in the economy of the estadounidenses. What happens? You can have a defeat, which at the end recae a little on the Supreme Court, but you can eliminate the aranceles without having to revert your medidas for you. So there is a debate of until this point is bad for Donald Trump in the short term, because he gives a image very bad, but in the middle he can come well because he can find other formulas to relax a little the economic pressure on the citizens and also apply the arancers, but in other ways and maybe not so general. Yes, now that is also the government of the Federal Reserve. That is true that the Supreme does because he is blood, Trump is falling in the polls and the main thing is that is that a little bit over there, that is like, look, that's a lot of polls that are not going to be published more, because also his behavior mafioso se extendió también a la demoscopia, pues la gente de Gallup, que llevaba 90 años publicando el índice de popularidad barra aceptación de los presidentes, no va a publicarlo más. Estaba en el 30 y pico por ciento, imagínense. Es que el miedo, Julia, es ese, que estamos a nada de las midterms y a ver cómo reacciona Trump a todo esto. Las midterms son las elecciones de medio mandato en noviembre. Ahí se juega muchísimo Trump y, por supuesto, otros congresistas del partido republicano. Yes, the world. Yes, yes. The world is playing a lot in November. Well, while Trump is facing the Supreme and is still with that pulsing more clearly and more authoritarian, it is increasing the spread of troops that is taking place in the United States in the Orient. I think they have the flot I think they have a lot of people there as when the invasion of Iraq Yes no one saw anything like that since 2003 Now everything is going to be a point that we are going to see a attack against Iran in any moment Siguiendo the logic trumpist, I think it would be this weekend. I thought, I think, the Supremo has given a Trump's war, he's going to dissimulate, montando mucho ruido in Iran. But at the moment it has happened. How? What will happen? We also thought it would be within a little bit And it's probably that we see it in the next week Maximum two weeks Every week we're going to open the culo Because... Yes, because also... Yes I think it's a way to say it It's a way to say it It's a way to say it Every week, every week, we have the world The week, we have the world I think, culín apretado We're going to prepare the guion Sabiendo that you can't jump out by the air No, because... You know, we talked about Maduro, the attacks are on Wednesdays because you have closed markets and control. Of course, it's very probable that we have a attack. Julia, you don't have to do that amount of military resources in the area if you're going to do something. And in fact, what is happening is... It's not even with Venezuela. And with Russia in its moment. It's to say, what is happening is that there are people who say that Trump is using this as a weapon of prison and that Iran is surprised to not be giving any steps to the negotiation and claudicating. and the question is that within the Iranian regime, Julia, they have understood that the only way for which they can survive is entering in a direct conflict with the United States. Because Israel is pushing for his side, Israel has a Netanyahu, has a lot of elections, and has a clear that a regional conflict le favorece. And then the Iranian regime knows that any type of negotiations with the United States will debilitate, and that it is true that with a armed conflict can have a very large impact within Iran, but it is one of the ways in which the regime can reinforce its legitimity by the nationalism and anti-imperialism for the attack of the United States. And what happens? That who has really much to lose if they fall bad the attacks against Iran is the United States. It is to say, Trump is the president, or, he said that he would not bring to the United States to another conflict. As the Iranians can, in some way, bring to the end of the United States and start sending soldiers muertos to the United States, Trump has a problem. So, we are a little bit... You can't attack bases in the region, which is the fear that is not clear. You can't do it. You can't do it. You can't do it. You can't do it. And then there is another very important thing, Julia. With the invasion of Iraq, George Bush was able to go to the United States trying to justify what he was going to do. And here Trump has no given any explanation of why the United States is going to be despleging those tropes all over there. He has no explanation. He has given any explanation for help to help the Iranians, to help the nuclear program. But he has not tried to convince to the United States of what we probably see these days. And what do you say about the international conference por la paz, esa conferencia de la señorita Pepys. Bueno, sois muy jóvenes vosotros, igual no sabéis de qué hablo, pero los talluditos seguro que sí. Esa reunión a la que han acudido líderes de distintos países del mundo, personalidades varias, lo que ocurre es que, bueno, de los 26 países que están en la Junta de la Paz, creo que hay solamente 7 u 8 que sean democracias, ¿eh? Eso ya lo dice todo. Sí, sí, o sea, se ha juntado Trump con lo mejor de lo mejor, la verdad. Lo mejor del planeta, sí. Sí, para que entiendan un poco los oyentes de qué estamos hablando. this is a new organization that has been created by Donald Trump and that seeks in a certain way to substitute a ONU, but also to push the negotiations, project to Donald Trump as a global pacific. It's another part. Basically, you enter for invitation, three years, if you want a permanent seat you have to put 1 millions of dollars on the table We have seen that almost all the European countries have rejected the initiative In fact Macron criticized the Junta because it didn have any sense At the end, what we tem is that the United States will try to put a U.S. through that. And what interesting is that Trump is the president of Vitalicio. He has an authority exclusively for his successor to invite, to exclude members. This is what goes beyond his mandate, Julia. It's to say, when Trump deje the presidency of the United States. It's personal, it's not the state. It's him who is in the junta. So, he, at the end, what he has created... It's the Trump Immobilierion, who wants to do the resort in Gaza. Of course, he has created a junta to be able to manage the international problems and be able to support the companies that he has, for example, in the case of Gaza, in the reconstruction of Gaza. By the way, you have heard of Tony Blair. to support without any admiration and any regret the strategy of Trump in that area? This is a vision of Gaza as part of a close oriental in peace. Not a peace based on good words and in agreements that no one wants to fulfill, but a real commitment with a region in which, whether you are musulman, judo or cristian, you will be able to prosper for your effort and feel your government to your side. That is the vision behind the 20 points of President Trump. And it's the best, the only hope for Gaza, the region and the world. Gaza, the region and the world wide. There he is, at the end of Trump, Tony Blair. Who knew and who knew? The British British have not taken any good. No, no, no. We saw this declaration of Blair and it was like, it's the example of what it is. The Junta of Paz, Julia, is hecha for the Donald Trump. and you see that you go from Kazakhstan, Morocco, Indonesia, are countries that what they look like is to get to the United States, but they are countries with economic deficit very large. And that is there, Tony Blair, well, no surprise to anybody. No surprise to anybody, but we have a little bit of water. Recordemos also that this Junta is a kind of mission of peace, the idea of putting it to the UN, with countries musulmanes to generate less friction in Gaza. Then also some kind of... Well, that the United States will be able to pay 10.000 million to the Junta, but this is for decision of Trump, because Trump's a BTC and he'll have put a little bit on a servilleta. And that, of course, nobody knows where to take the pasta and why it's going to be going to try. At the moment, I see the Yerno in all the photos prepared to start building. It's a family. And, of course, Julia, what we look for is that they're going to be in the territory of these countries and they start to build... The resort. That's the resort, effectively. Aquel video that we saw and that we took off and we said, well, look, We'll see it. We'll see it. The objective is that. The question that we have planned to the audience is, which of these countries is a member of the CERN? Brazil, Morocco or Arabia Saudis? What have they said? Aulalia, what have you seen? Well, look, in Twitter, at the moment, Brazil is going to win with the 43% of the votes in second position. And the most votes in Arabia Saudis. And in Instagram? And in Instagram... A minute, because I don't have it. The debate is... The debate is... They are very concentrated. So, Brazil, they say in Twitter, okay. And is Brazil or no? Look, Instagram is also winning Brazil. Also Brazil. Have you ever heard or not? Well, the correct answer is... Brazil. Ole! Efectivamente, you know much of politics. Julia, this question we have because the CERN is one of the last multilateral organizations that demonstrate that the cooperation works. Our reducto is under the mountains of Suiza. In Europe, there is. Okay, Brazil, eh? Yes, yes, yes. Os han pillado, eh. Hasta ver. Os habéis levantado malotes y los oyentes... Os han pillado. Os han pillado. A ver, se prepare la semana que viene. Ahora, pues venga. Hasta aquí el orden mundial. Adiós. Hasta la semana que viene. Adiós. Son las nueve. A continuación, noticias y luego la hora random con los relojes de Concha Monge. No hago más que ver relojes pedidos a la IA por los oyentes. Mareada me tienen con los relojes. Mareada me tienen con los relojes.