Letters from an American

March 1, 2026

10 min
Mar 3, 2026about 2 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

On March 1, 2026, the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury resulting in three service member deaths and five wounded. The episode examines the Trump administration's military strikes against Iran, the lack of clear strategic planning, contradictory statements about objectives, and the absence of a coherent endgame strategy.

Insights
  • Military operations launched without clear strategic objectives or post-conflict planning, with administration officials unable to articulate specific endgame goals
  • Significant disconnect between public justifications for military action and intelligence assessments, with Pentagon briefers contradicting administration claims about imminent Iranian threats
  • Leadership communications strategy relied on direct media engagement rather than formal press office channels, suggesting internal coordination challenges
  • Assumptions about popular uprising as regime change mechanism ignored existing state security apparatus and historical precedent of succession planning
Trends
Military decision-making without transparent strategic planning or congressional coordinationDirect executive-to-media communication bypassing institutional press infrastructureGeopolitical instability driving commodity market volatility (oil prices spiking on Strait of Hormuz disruption)Intelligence assessments contradicting public administration statements on military justificationsRegional escalation involving multiple actors (Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, U.S.) creating unpredictable outcomesLack of defined success metrics or exit strategies in military operations
Topics
U.S. Military Operations in Middle EastIran Nuclear Program and SanctionsU.S.-Iran Relations and DiplomacyIsrael-Iran Military ConflictHezbollah and Lebanon Regional SecurityOil Market Volatility and Strait of HormuzPentagon Intelligence AssessmentExecutive Communication StrategyRegime Change OperationsCongressional Oversight of Military ActionState Department Diplomatic EngagementU.S. Central Command OperationsCasualty Response and Military MoraleIranian Succession PlanningGeopolitical Risk Assessment
Companies
U.S. Central Command
Posted casualty reports from Operation Epic Fury showing three killed and five wounded service members
The New York Times
Reported on Mar-a-Lago fundraiser ticket prices and Trump's statements on bombing duration and regime change strategy
NBC News
Conducted phone interviews with Trump on military operations and casualty expectations
CNN
Reported Pentagon briefings contradicting administration claims about Iranian threat assessment
Reuters
Reported CIA assessments on Iranian succession planning following potential death of Supreme Leader
The Atlantic
Published interviews with Trump regarding Iran negotiations and regime change objectives
ABC News
Conducted interview with Trump on identified Iranian succession candidates killed in strikes
Central Intelligence Agency
Provided assessments on Iranian succession scenarios and threat analysis contradicting administration statements
People
Donald Trump
U.S. President who launched Operation Epic Fury, made contradictory statements about military objectives and Iranian ...
Mike Waltz
Trump's UN Ambassador who justified military casualties and previously coordinated Yemen strike discussions
Adam Schiff
Democratic Senator from California who expressed condolences for fallen service members
Lindsey Graham
Republican Senator from South Carolina questioned on whether hope constitutes a plan for Iran's future
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
86-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader whose potential death was assessed to enable hardline succession
Peter Nicholas
NBC News reporter who conducted phone interview with Trump on military operations
Alexandra Marquez
NBC News reporter who conducted phone interview with Trump on military operations
Jeffrey Goldberg
Atlantic editor invited to Signal chat by Mike Waltz regarding Yemen strike coordination
Kristen Welker
Meet the Press host who questioned Trump's Iran strategy and interviewed Senator Graham
Michael Schur
Atlantic journalist who interviewed Trump on Iranian leadership negotiations
Tom Nichols
National security scholar who cautioned against certainty regarding military operation outcomes
Jonathan Karl
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent who reported Trump's statement on killed Iranian succession candidates
Zolan Kano-Youngs
New York Times reporter who interviewed Trump on bombing duration and military strategy
David E. Sanger
New York Times reporter who interviewed Trump on bombing duration and military strategy
Tyler Pager
New York Times reporter who interviewed Trump on bombing duration and military strategy
Quotes
"Freedom is never free."
Mike WaltzEarly in episode
"We expect casualties with something like this. He added, We have three, but we expect casualties. But in the end, it's going to be a great deal for the world."
Donald TrumpDuring NBC News phone call
"Likely be more. But we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case. but America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists"
Donald TrumpPublic statement to American people
"They weren't willing to say they will not have a nuclear weapon."
Donald TrumpNBC News interview
"People predicting disaster? The odds are in your favor, but you cannot be sure, and you should not hope to be right."
Tom NicholsEnd of episode
Full Transcript
March 1, 2026. This morning, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that three service members have been killed in action in Operation Epic Fury, and five more are seriously wounded. It continued, Democratic leaders reacted to the news with comments like this one by Senator Adam Schiff, a Democrat of California. My thoughts are with the families of these service members and their loved ones, and I continue to pray for the safety of every service member and the recovery of those wounded in these operations. May God protect our troops. Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, the same man who invited Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg to the Signal chat about striking Yemen, suggested the soldier's sacrifice for the country was worthwhile, writing, Freedom is never free. In a phone call with Peter Nicholas and Alexandra Marquez of NBC News, Trump said, We expect casualties with something like this. He added, We have three, but we expect casualties. But in the end, it's going to be a great deal for the world. Later today, Trump told the American people, As one nation, we grieve for the true American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation. Even as we continue the righteous mission for which they gave their lives, we pray for the full recovery of the wounded and send our immense love and eternal gratitude to the families of the fallen. And sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That's the way it is. Likely be more. But we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case. but America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against basically civilization They have waged war against civilization itself Trump was hosting a fundraiser at Mar on Friday as the U offensive began The New York Times reported last November that tickets for the dinner dance were a million dollars apiece The optics of Trump partying with his rich cronies while American soldiers died is at least partly what is behind the fact that today, hashtag Send Baron trended on social media. Strikes continued today in the Middle East as Israel and the U.S. hit Iran and Iran retaliated against Israel and U.S. bases in the region. Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon joined the fight by sending missiles into Israel. Israel responded with an attack on the suburbs of Beirut. Oil prices jumped sharply as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at the outlet of the Persian Gulf, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes dropped almost to a halt. After yesterday's euphoria coming from the administration following the first strikes against Iran, today revealed that the administration had not given much thought to whether the strikes were legitimate or what would happen after them. Administration officials did not appear on the Sunday talk shows, relying instead on congressional surrogates. Brian Stelter and Kit Mayer reported that journalists have been working around the White House press office, calling Trump directly, and he has been willing to talk. Trump told NBC News reporters Nicholas and Marquez that he launched the strikes because they weren't willing to stop their nuclear research. They weren't willing to say they will not have a nuclear weapon. When asked if he would stop the strikes and negotiate, he said, I don't know. but he said he would consider it if they can satisfy us, adding that they haven't been able to. Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, and Jennifer Hansler of CNN reported this evening that briefers from the Pentagon today told congressional staff that Iran had not been planning to attack U.S. forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked first. Trump administration officials said on Saturday that Iran was planning to strike the U.S. preemptively and thus posed an imminent threat The briefer said there was no intelligence to support that claim Trump seems unclear about the endgame of the conflict he has started When NBC News reporters Nicholas and Marquez asked him what he hoped to accomplish through the military operation he said, there are many outcomes that are good. Number one is decapitating them, getting rid of their whole group of killers and thugs. And there are many, many outcomes. We could do the short version or the long version. He told Michael Schur of The Atlantic that Iran's new leadership wants to talk with him and that he will do so, suggesting that he was not, in fact, interested in regime change. They should have done it sooner, Michael. They could have made a deal. They should have done it sooner. They played too cute, Trump said. But then Trump told Schur he had confidence that the Iranian people would launch an uprising against the Iranian government. Kristen Welker of Meet the Press this morning quoted Trump's statement of yesterday, saying, hopefully Iranian troops and police will peacefully merge with the Iranian patriots and work together as a unit to bring back the country to the greatness it deserves. Then Welker asked her guest, Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican of South Carolina, is hope the plan for the future of Iran? Graham said, no, the future of Iran is going to be determined by the Iranian people. The new Iran, whatever it is, our goal is to make sure it cannot become again the largest state sponsor of terrorism. Welker responded, but is there a plan to make sure that happens? Does the president have a plan to guarantee that that happens? Graham responded with some heat, no, it's not his job or my job to do this. Apparently, U.S. officials simply hoped the Iranian people would seize the government if their leaders were killed in airstrikes. But there was a line of succession, and the country's police state remains in place. Aaron Banco of Reuters reported yesterday that before the attacks, analysts for the Central Intelligence Agency assessed that if Iran's 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, younger, hardline men could replace him. Trump told Zolan Kano-Youngs, David E. Sanger, and Tyler Pager of the New York Times that he intends to keep bombing Iran for four to five weeks if necessary He spoke repeatedly of an outcome like that of Venezuela in which the U removed the top leader but left the rest of the government intact Trump told the reporters he hoped Iran's military forces would turn over their weapons to the Iranian people. They would really surrender to the people if you think about it, he said. The New York Times reporters note that the security forces he says should surrender to the people were the ones that killed thousands of protesters in January. Trump refused to say the administration would defend the Iranian people if they did rise up. ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl spoke to Trump tonight and posted, President Trump told me tonight the U.S. had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack. The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates, Trump told me. It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead. In the midst of today's military operation and all his calls with reporters, Trump took to social media to repost more than 40 social media posts with over-the-top praise for his State of the Union address. The posts appeared to be curated, suggesting that someone is feeding him praise. National security scholar Tom Nichols posted on social media, People predicting disaster? The odds are in your favor, but you cannot be sure, and you should not hope to be right. People celebrating? Maybe want to wait a bit. The odds, historically, are definitely not on your side. Anyone certain they know what happens next is making it up. Letters from an American was written and read by Heather Cox Richardson. It was produced at Soundscape Productions, dead in Massachusetts. Recorded with music composed by Michael Moss. Thank you.