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How is the Iran war reshaping the world and politics here at home?

12 min
Mar 6, 20263 months ago
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Summary

This episode examines the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran following strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, analyzing how the widening conflict is reshaping global alliances, energy markets, and domestic US political opinion. The episode explores international responses, the role of Russia and China, and reveals that a majority of Americans oppose the military action despite strong Republican support.

Insights
  • American public opinion on the Iran conflict is deeply polarized along partisan lines, with 56% overall opposition but 84% Republican support, mirroring broader Trump approval patterns
  • The conflict is creating diplomatic fractures with traditional US allies, with France explicitly condemning the operations as outside international law while UK and Spain initially resisted providing military base access
  • Global energy markets face real supply disruptions as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices spiking and analysts warning of cascading economic effects on the world's poorest populations
  • Russia is actively supporting Iran with intelligence for targeting, while China and Russia are calling for de-escalation but not providing overt military support despite BRICS membership
  • The conflict threatens to destabilize the broader Middle East region, with concerns about potential civil war in Iran and ripple effects across supply chains and international markets
Trends
Geopolitical realignment: BRICS nations (Russia, China, India) maintaining strategic ambiguity while Western allies fracture over military interventionEnergy market volatility: Strait of Hormuz closure creating real-time supply shocks with broader economic implications for developing nationsGenerational and educational divides in US foreign policy support: Younger Americans and college-educated voters significantly more skeptical of military actionTechnology-enabled warfare escalation: UN humanitarian officials warning about 'increasingly deadly alliance of technology and killing' in sustained attacksRegional security partnerships shifting: Ukraine offering drone defense expertise to Gulf States based on Russian-Iranian technology experienceDiplomatic isolation of US military actions: International law concerns raised by EU and France, signaling potential long-term alliance strainDefense spending surge: Approximately $1 billion per day being spent on the conflict with uncertain economic consequencesIntelligence sharing as proxy support: Russia providing targeting intelligence to Iran without direct military involvementNaval power projection: First torpedo sinking of enemy ship since WWII signaling escalation and testing of Chinese dominance in Indian Ocean
Topics
US-Iran Military Conflict EscalationMiddle East Regional StabilityOil Market Disruption and Energy SecurityUS-Europe Alliance TensionsRussia-Iran Intelligence CooperationChina's Strategic Positioning in Middle EastAmerican Public Opinion on Foreign Military ActionNATO and Allied Military Base AccessStrait of Hormuz Closure and Global Supply ChainsInternational Law and Military InterventionRegime Change vs. Defensive Military OperationsBRICS Nations' Response to ConflictHumanitarian Impact of Sustained WarfareUS Military Presence in Gulf RegionDemocratic vs. Republican Foreign Policy Divide
Companies
Wise
International money transfer app offering multi-currency services; sponsored the episode with promotional messaging
People
Donald Trump
US President directing military operations against Iran; warned of more casualties and demanded unconditional surrender
Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister; coordinated with US on strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
Ali Khamenei
Iran's Supreme Leader killed in US-Israeli strikes; primary target of military campaign
Emmanuel Macron
France's President; explicitly condemned US-Israeli operations as violations of international law
Keir Starmer
British Prime Minister; eventually allowed US base access for defensive purposes while opposing regime change
Pete Hegseth
Pentagon Chief; warned conflict will expand in coming days and described Iranian warship sinking by torpedo
Michelle Kalemam
NPR Diplomatic Correspondent; analyzed international responses and allied concerns about escalation
Tom Fletcher
UN's top humanitarian official; warned of perilous moment with $1 billion daily war spending and supply chain risks
Kaja Kallas
EU's top diplomat; met with Gulf State counterparts to discuss stability and risks of civil war in Iran
Domenico Montanaro
NPR Senior Political Editor; presented polling data showing 56% American opposition to military action
John Kilduff
Energy analyst at Again Capital; warned of real supply problems in oil market from conflict
Sushant Singh
Former Indian military officer; expressed concerns about US Navy actions testing Chinese dominance in Indian Ocean
Quotes
"So this is becoming a very much a real supply problem for this market in real time. Like a slow motion traffic accident coming to fruition here."
John Kilduff, Energy Analyst
"These operations were conducted outside of international law, which we cannot condone."
Emmanuel Macron, France's President
"We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons."
Keir Starmer, British Prime Minister
"The amount of power over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically."
Pete Hegseth, Pentagon Chief
"So many warning lights are flashing on the dashboard right now."
Tom Fletcher, UN Humanitarian Official
Full Transcript
It is astonishing what can happen in a week. It was sunrise Saturday in Tehran when the US and Israel launched the first strikes of a war that over the past seven days have spread throughout and now beyond the Middle East. Over the course of the first 24 hours of the operation, the two countries struck more than a thousand targets. The most significant said President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Kaminayi. The hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. Your suffering and your sacrifice will not be in vain. We promised you the help and the help has arrived. We even saw one of the explosions from our office window around downtown Tehran. This engineer is one of many we talk to an Iran this week who asked in PR not to use his name for fear of government retribution. Suddenly we heard cheers from our neighbors and to be honest with you, the moment I hear the cheers, I knew what had happened. Iran's foreign ministry called the airstrikes a gross violation of its national sovereignty and vowed to respond decisively. They struck back firing drones and missiles at US bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait where the strikes killed six American service members. On Monday, Iran continued attacks on targets as far afield as Cyprus and the Mediterranean and Iran backed Hezbollah and Lebanon launched its own attacks on Israel. It's first and more than a year. To Iranian drones damaged the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia on Monday and the day after an Iranian drone targeted the US consulate in Dubai. Hundreds more targeted US troops in Iraq and elsewhere and President Trump warned of more casualties. Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That's the way it is. As the US and its allies responded, confusion sometimes set in. Kuwait mistakenly shot down three US fighter jets. Oil prices spiked on Monday when Iran closed the strait of formuse and threatened to fire on ships. The energy analyst John Kilduff of again capital. So this is becoming a very much a real supply problem for this market in real time. Like a slow motion traffic accident coming to fruition here. The war strained relations between the United States and its Western allies. These operations were conducted outside of international law, which we cannot condone. That was France's president, Emmanuel Macron, other European countries like Germany struck a more concilatory tone. Spain has been very, very uncooperative and so has UK. Trump blasted the two countries when they refused to let US troops use military bases in their countries to attack Iran. Spain held firm. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer eventually allowed use of its bases for defensive purposes. Still, he made an impassioned speech in parliament saying Britain does not believe in regime change from the skies. We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons by Wednesday, the conflict spread even further. A US submarine sunk in Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka carrying about 180 people, Pentagon chief Pete Hexath. It was sunk by a torpedo, quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II. The strike set off ripples of anxiety across South Asia, sushant saying a former Indian military officer worries the strike will test Chinese dominance over the Indian Ocean. If the US Navy is doing this, it really sends a signal which is the Chinese are likely to take more seriously. On Thursday, more fronts opened. An Iranian drone struck an airport in Azerbaijan, a US ally, NATO intercepted a missile headed for Turkey. Secretary Hexath warned yesterday the war will only expand in the coming days. The amount of power over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically. President Trump says there will be no deal except in his words unconditional surrender. Consider this, for the past week, Israeli and US bombs have devastated Iran. The conflict has widened to include multiple countries in the Gulf. How is the conflict reshaping the world order and impact in Trump's popularity here in the United States? This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe. You can send, spend and receive and up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Be smart, get Wise. Download the Wise app today or visit Wise.com, TZNC's Apply. It's considered this from NPR. It didn't take long for the Iran war to spill over into the wider region. I spoke to NPR's diplomatic correspondent, Michelle Kaliman, about how allies are viewing the widening conflict. Michelle, the Trump administration says its airstrikes are only just picking up steam. They say this will do great Iran's ability to threaten the region, but most come from countries have faced Iranian drones and missile strikes. Will they be drawn under this fight? Well, that's really a big concern and why some are calling for de-escalation now. That includes the UN's top humanitarian official, Tom Fletcher. He calls this a perilous moment. He says about a billion dollars a day are being spent on this war. And he's worried about what he calls an increasingly deadly alliance of technology and killing. He's seeing a sustained attack against the systems and laws meant to restrain us from our worst instincts and from reckless warfare. So too many warning lights are flashing on the dashboard right now. And he's also worried this could have ripple effects on markets and supply chains, which would have a devastating impact on the world's poorest people. What are world leaders in diplomats doing to keep this from escalating further? Yeah, I mean, the European Union's top diplomat, Kaya Kallis met this week with counterparts from the Gulf States. And she says they're talking about what they can do to promote stability. And she says everyone's worried about what comes next inside Iran. Take a listen. Every time when we have seen these wars before in the Middle East, we have also seen that it doesn't go that easy. But one day there's war and the next day there's democracy. So clearly the risks are there. And she means the risks of civil war. She's also worried about air defenses and the Gulf. And it's interesting because Ukraine is actually offering Gulf States and help because it has experience in dealing with Iranian drone technology used by Russia. And speaking of Russia, Michelle, the Washington Post is reporting that Russia has helped the Iranians with intelligence for its targets. And that's something that NPR has now been able to independently confirm. What role has Russia been playing so far? Well, it's called for the U.S. and it called the U.S. and Israeli actions a violation of the international law. China has too. But neither of them are really offering overt military support to Iran. They're both members of the BRICS group, which includes Iran. And you know, India's in that too, but India's been pretty silent so far even after the U.S. torpedoed that Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean. And that ship was there. Wana, at the invitation of India, it had participated in a multinational naval drill that was hosted by the Indian Navy. President Trump has said that after Iran's surrender, his words, allies and partners will bring Iran back from the brink. But from your point of view, will he have willing partners to do that? Well, we'll have to see. I mean, I will point out that it was just a couple of weeks ago that Trump brought together what he's calling this board of peace to rebuild Gaza and raise money for that. Indonesia now says that it's paused. It's talks with the board, though the State Department insists that Indonesia is still a member. It's really a key country because it's one of the few countries willing to offer troops for a stabilization force. So we'll have to see if it continues with that. Michelle Kalaman at the State Department, thank you. Thank you. How are Americans feeling about the war? That's something I discussed with NPR senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro. He joined me to talk through the results of a new NPR PBS news, Marist Paul. So what do we learn about how people feel about this war? A majority are against the military action. You know, 56 percent said that they oppose, and that's of the almost 1600 people that Marist surveyed this week. And like we've seen in other polls, Democrats and Independents are largely aligned. Almost 9 and 10 Democrats and 61 percent of Independents are against the war. But Republicans heavily in support, 84 percent say that they're in favor. That's interesting because so much has been made of the various maggot influencers who are not so supportive of this war. Yeah, I mean, there's going to be those voices, but like on so many other highly controversial things that President Trump has done, the overwhelming majority of Republicans are strongly in his corner and are likely going to continue to be there for lots of reasons. So a big divide by a political party, which like you said before is the story of the last decade. Were there any other notable divides here? Yeah, younger people, those 18 to 29 years old, were the most likely of any age group to be against the military action, almost two thirds say that there were also notable divides by education, gender and race. For example, whites with degrees heavily oppose the action while whites without degrees, a slight majority is in favor. When it comes to men and women, men are far more likely to support it. And on race, those who are black and Latino were more likely to be against the action than whites were. What about President Trump? How are people viewing the way that he is handling this? Yeah, he gets just a 36 percent approval rating when it comes to this war. That mirrors Trump's overall approval rating on foreign policy from our last poll last month. It's also worse than when we asked about his handling of Iran after the killing of the Kudzforz leader, Kassim Solomani back in January 2020, then about 42 percent approved, not great, but still higher. We also see, again, some of the same divides. Democrats and independence heavily disapproving while eight and ten Republicans in Trump's corner. Let's take a step back. A big part of the justification for this war from Trump and others is that Iran is a huge threat to the United States. How much do Americans feel that way? Yeah, a majority, 55 percent sees Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all. 44 percent do see it as a major threat, and that's four points lower. Actually, the last summer, those who see Iran as a major threat are mostly Republicans, white evangelical Christians, white women without college degrees, those who live in rural areas, and people who are 45 to 59 years old, those least likely to see it as a major threat, white women with college degrees, people who live in the Northeast, white college graduates, and millennials. We're seeing a real schism about just how heavily Americans feel the threat of Iran looms over American society, and the Trump administration has really been shifting its rationales for the threat that Iran poses, and or what the triggering event was to start this war in the first place. And Trump continues to face a skeptical American public on many of his policies while people are continuing to say the economy is their top concern that Trump isn't focused enough on it. We saw losses in the jobs report, and there have been now five monthly jobs reports I've shown losses in the past year when there had been four straight years of job increases before that dating back to the pandemic. And Paris Domenico Montenarro, thank you so much. You got it. This episode was produced by Conradonovan, Atlanta Burnett, Alejandro Marquez-Hanza, and Erica Ryan with Audio Engineering by Ted Meebein. It was edited by Barry Hardiman, Teranille, Dana Faring, Tenjinette Woods, and Courtney Dorning. Executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And before we go, thank you to our consider this plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider This. You can learn more at plus.npr.org. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detro. And I'm Wana Summers.