Big Ideas Lab

Energy Flow Charts

15 min
Dec 2, 20255 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's energy flow charts visualize how the U.S. generates, distributes, and wastes energy through Sankey diagrams that reveal critical insights for policymakers, businesses, and the public. Originally created during the 1970s oil crisis, these charts have evolved into powerful tools for understanding energy infrastructure, identifying inefficiencies, and planning for future scenarios.

Insights
  • Two-thirds of all U.S. energy generated is rejected as waste (heat, noise, unused electricity), representing a massive efficiency opportunity that most people never see
  • Energy flow charts enable rapid identification of systemic shifts caused by external factors like pandemics, droughts, and nuclear plant outages without requiring complex spreadsheet analysis
  • State-level energy dashboards (like Hawaii's) empower local legislators and energy stakeholders to make data-driven decisions about renewable energy investment and infrastructure planning
  • Historical comparison of energy flow charts reveals the direct impact of technology adoption—renewables like solar and wind are now visible on charts where they barely registered in 1970
  • Private companies use energy flow data to identify regions with skilled workforces and existing infrastructure, influencing investment decisions for renewable energy projects
Trends
Shift toward renewable energy visibility—solar, wind, and geothermal now represent measurable portions of energy mix vs. near-invisible in 1970sIncreased reliance on natural gas as flexible backup when nuclear plants go offline or hydroelectric capacity drops due to droughtState-level energy transparency initiatives driving localized energy planning and renewable investment decisionsEnergy efficiency and waste reduction becoming central to national security and infrastructure resilience discussionsDynamic energy modeling and scenario planning replacing static reporting for policy decision-makingCoal power plant reactivation during post-pandemic demand surge despite long-term decline in coal dependencyExtreme weather events (droughts, pandemics) becoming primary drivers of energy source substitution and grid resilience testingData visualization as a tool for public engagement and understanding complex energy infrastructure at classroom and policy levels
Topics
Energy Flow Visualization and Sankey DiagramsU.S. Energy Infrastructure and National SecurityRenewable Energy Adoption and Growth TrackingEnergy Waste and Efficiency OptimizationHydroelectric Power and Drought ImpactNatural Gas as Grid Backup and FlexibilityNuclear Power Plant Decommissioning EffectsState-Level Energy Planning and DashboardsCOVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Energy DemandOil Dependency and Energy IndependenceWorkforce Development in Renewable Energy SectorsEnergy Scenario Planning and ModelingGrid Resilience and Extreme Weather AdaptationCoal Power Plant Reactivation TrendsEnergy Data for Business Investment Decisions
Companies
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Creator and maintainer of U.S. energy flow charts; tasked with national energy security analysis and visualization
Hawaii State Energy Office
Collaborated with LLNL to develop state-level energy flow dashboard for localized energy planning and transparency
Carnegie Mellon University
Used energy flow charts as educational tools in multiple classes to teach energy systems analysis and data interpreta...
People
Hannah Goldstein
System and policy analysis group leader at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; expert on energy flow chart develo...
Kimberly Mayfield
Research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; discusses energy waste, efficiency, and state dashboard...
Quotes
"America loses more energy than it uses. About two thirds of all energy generated is rejected as heat, noise or unused electricity"
Kimberly Mayfield
"I wish that each state had a little landfill where wasted electrons would go because then you could actually see the importance of energy efficiency"
Kimberly Mayfield
"What makes these charts powerful isn't complexity. It's restraint. No jargon. No thousand page report. Just a picture you can read in seconds."
"Year over year, decade over decade, we get to see how technology is directly impacting the energy systems that we rely on day over day"
Kimberly Mayfield
"If you've got a state that's already been bringing on year over year, 10X the amount of wind turbines, you can best believe that there's probably a few people on the ground that know how to get those installed"
Full Transcript
Inside a 6-grade classroom, a teacher dims the lights and directs the student's attention to a projector. On the screen appears a brightly colored chart featuring thick twisting bars extending from left to right. Inner as wide as rivers, others as narrow as threads. In the boxes, they're all different colors. Solo is yellow, natural gas is a light blue, hydro is a dark blue, and then you can follow them all the way through. All the way through to what's used and what slips away. That is one of the most interesting, underrated boxes. That's the rejected energy. A few kids lean forward. For the first time, they can see energy. Where it comes from, where it goes, and how much of it disappears along the way. Hundreds of miles away in Washington, DC. Analysts are leaning forward in front of the exact same charts. They've waited all year for the vital information it provides to decide how secure the nation is and where to take action. That is why Lawrence Levin-Morne National Laboratory was tasked with it because for a nation to be secure, we also really need to be secure in your energy infrastructure as it is as well as your energy resources that power it. From lessons in a classroom to decisions in the capital, the truth behind dependence, trade offs, and innovation is revealed through the energy flow charts. Welcome to the Big Ideas Lab, your exploration inside Lawrence Levin-Morne National Laboratory. Here untold stories meet boundary-pushing pioneers and get unparalleled access inside the gates. From national security challenges to computing revolutions, discover the innovations that are shaping tomorrow today. Lawrence Levin-Morne National Laboratory is hiring. If you're passionate about tackling real-world challenges in science, engineering, business, or skilled trades, there's a place for you at the lab. Right now, positions are open for a senior labor relations advocate, operations cybersecurity manager, and a senior database administrator. These are just a few of the more than 100 exciting roles available. At Lawrence Levin-Morne, you'll work on projects that matter from national security to cutting-edge scientific advancements. Join a team that values innovation, collaboration, and professional growth. For opportunities at llnl.gov-forewardslash-careers, where your next career move could make history. The 1970s. Cars were big. Polyester was big. If you were lucky, your living room had wood paneling and a shag carpet that would swallow your shoes. And gas was cheap until it wasn't. Gas lines at many stations were a lot longer than normal. Gasoline dealers will be the biggest. Beneath the glitter of disco, something else was happening. We're heading toward the most acute shortages of energy since World War II. America was running on energy it didn't fully understand. The oil crisis of the 1970s made energy suddenly visible, visible in the long lines at gas stations. Longer the line and waiting time. In headlines about OPEC. The oil embargo and existing gasoline shortage. And in the worry that the United States wasn't as secure as it thought. America's energy demands have grown so rapidly. That's when a group of scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory were asked to help. Their assignment? Figure out exactly how the nation used energy. This was the origin of the first energy flow chart. The lab started creating them in 1970 around when the oil crisis was happening. That's Hannah Goldstein. The system and policy analysis group leader at the lab. Let's keep this simple. They used to be hand drawn and they were just energy flows very simple. On the left you had hydroelectric, natural gas, coal, petroleum, conversion, residential industrial, non-energy and then transportation and then rejected and used energy. And that was it. The oil was pulled from the Bureau of Mines, typed up on sheets of paper and mailed across the country to the scientists at the lab. From there lab researchers used Penn and Ruler to create a blend of art and science. The very first energy flow charts. Politicians and security analysts used these charts to inform their decision making. But over the decades the diagrams made their way into laboratories, boardrooms and classrooms. I actually used them when I was at Carnegie Mone in one of my classes, actually in several of my classes, as just like tools. We learned how to read them. We learned what they were telling us. We used them as sources for information to argue points. What makes these charts powerful isn't complexity. It's restraint. No jargon. No thousand page report. Just a picture you can read in seconds. Where energy comes from, where it goes and how much is lost. Their sanki diagrams, charts that use flow lines to visualize data. Lines that look almost like a subway map for America's energy. Bright colored lines run left to right across the page. On the left they depart from their sources. Oil wells, wind farms, solar fields, gas pipelines. As they move across the band's split, merge and branch, just like train lines at a crowded station, some peel off into electricity generation, others flow straight into transportation, factories or homes. And at the far edge, every line arrives at one of two final stops. Energy we actually use or the gray box of waste. There is no such thing as a generator that's 100% efficient. What wasted energy for the most part is representative of heat losses. Kimberly Mayfield is a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. If you were to take a look at a power plant, you'd see through an infrared camera. It'd be quite hot. You would see a lot of wasted energy just coming out. I think we've all heard that said, striving around in our own cars. Nobody says their car is 100% energy efficient. And so that is a wasted energy that's being captured in that right most light gray box. The black box tells a sobering story. America loses more energy than it uses. About two thirds of all energy generated is rejected as heat, noise or unused electricity according to Lawrence Livermore's charts. It's something that people don't see. It's something that I wish people saw though. I wish that each state had a little landfill where wasted electrons would go because then you could actually see the importance of energy efficiency. Rejected energy tells one story. But if you keep looking, the charts reveal others. Stories about how we live, work and adapt when the world changes. Take the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We all remember being sequestered in our homes. And when all that happened, everything was shuttered and the energy needs of the United States and state by states overall just came to a crawl. So we watched this deep nose dive of energy during the COVID-19 pandemic. You can see it in the flowcharts. And then you can also watch how immediately come 2022, everything goes up and roaring. This is an example of the comparison that we get to do year over year. So every year we learn something. The energy flowcharts also help states understand impacts during extreme weather or national disasters. In 2021, reservoirs in the Western US ran low. Tonight there is no relief inside from the devastating Western drought. The hydroelectric lines on the chart got skinned more and something else had to fatten up to take their place. When the major droughts were happening across the Western United States, we kept saying hydro power decreasing year over year. And you watched how hydro power decreasing made it so that other energy sources, particularly natural gas, had to expand in order to make up that load that was missing. And so you really get to see how shifts in energy availability could be motivated by factors that have absolutely nothing to do with things that are within your control. The charts even capture surprises. In 2021 and 2022, when demand surged again after the pandemic, the obvious expectation was that natural gas would fill the gap, like what happened during the drought years. But in many states, the comeback story actually belonged to coal. As the coal industry looks to make a comeback, the production is a major increase in energy. For the most part, coal energy is something that the United States is not relying on as heavily as it used to. That said, I mentioned that we all decreased our energy usage by quite a lot during the COVID pandemic. It's not that easy to spin things up right away. And so what was the energy source that actually came out to help get several states back online after the COVID pandemic? It was coal. In those states, they turned back on coal power plants that had been operating at a very low capacity for a while. So that was a increase in coal that was unexpected. That's the power of the visual. Instead of combing through spreadsheets, you see one line thin out, another one grow, and a whole system shift in response. Sometimes a single facility makes all the difference, like when the team saw a spike in natural gas. And we, of course, had to go dig deeper. What we ended up finding was that it was really about certain nuclear power plants that were going offline across the nation. And the impact of one highly concentrated power plant going offline, whether it was from planned decommissioning or a planned maintenance schedule, when those electrons are not available to the grid, you had a replace it with something. And so in all of these cases, we saw natural gas power plants were the ones who stepped up to fill that void. And we saw this across every single one. A single nuclear outage, a single drought, a single pandemic, all of it shows up in those multicolored ribbons on the energy flow chart. But the charts don't just showcase the past, they make way for the future. Looking for a career that challenges and inspires? Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is hiring for a nuclear facility engineer, systems design and testing engineer, and a senior scientific technologist, along with many other roles in science, technology, engineering, and beyond. At the lab, every role contributes to ground breaking projects in national security, advanced computing, and scientific research, all within a collaborative mission-driven environment. Discover open positions at llnl.gov forward slash careers, where big ideas come to life. The energy flow charts allow us to ask, what if? So right now they're just a stature, it's just a picture. We want to make them dynamic in the future so that you can see changes over time. Do what if scenarios, what if we run out of oil, what's going to happen? This scenario planning isn't just a future need, it's something the U.S. is using right now. It was a sudden as it was brutal and relentless, Ukrainians woke up to find themselves plunged into the midst of all. When Russia invaded Ukraine, we were asked to look at what would happen to our oil imports if Russia was just to disappear. And we created a diagram of the petroleum, specifically looking at where it was our petroleum imports come from. And we have that diagram that shows who our biggest supply of the imports. Public companies study the energy flow charts too, using the data to decide where to build, where to invest, and how to plan for the future. Say that you are a solar, geothermal, nuclear energy developer. Maybe you want to go to a place that already has a lot of that energy online because you know that the workforces are there. And when there's skilled workforces available in an area, then that means that you can probably hit the ground running, right? If you've got a state that's already been bringing on year over a year, 10X, the amount of wind turbines, you can best believe that there's probably a few people on the ground that know how to get those installed and permanent. At the highest level, these charts help shape national million dollar decisions. And at every level, they're a wake up call. We drive cars every day. We turn on lights. We cook. We clean. We do laundry, right? Where can you cut back to lessen your use? So is it that you carpool to work instead? And then that's one less car on the road? Or is it that you turn off your lights when you're not in the room? We know oil is a finite resource. We know that we're going to run out of it in the future. You could see that where we are dependent. And then if you take a look at yourself as an individual in your home, where are you dependent? Fortunately, much of the solution is in front of us. In the form of smarter choices and existing tools we already have access to. While Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory makes energy flow charts for the US as a whole, the lab also creates them for every individual state. The Hawaii State Energy Office, they actually saw the energy flow charts from LLLNL. And they said, wow, these are so helpful. So Hawaii State Energy Office's analysts reached out with the idea of refining and customizing state utility data, showing all the sources of energy flowing into the state of Hawaii, and all energy consumed. And so we work together with the Hawaii State Energy Office to support them in their development of a Sankey dashboard, where you can go through and actually see year over year how Hawaii's energy sources have changed, but also how they're looking at changing these, moving into the future. Live dashboard can be viewed on the Hawaii State Energy Office's website, published as the Hawaii State-wide Energy Flow Chart. The result is a powerful tool that can be understood by legislators, energy stakeholders, and the general public. It reflects the present while also serving as a modeling tool that quantifies change. And Kim said it was a fun project to work on. We love it when state agencies reach out to us. If you're a state agency energy administrator listening to this podcast, my email may field 8 at llln.gov. We love hearing from you. In the end, these flow charts aren't just diagrams. They're time machines, mirrors, and even crystal balls. And tucked away in her files, Kim keeps copies of the very first energy flow chart. A reminder of just how much our energy story has changed. This flow chart from 1970. There is no solar energy on here. There is hydroelectric. There is nuclear. There is geothermal, natural gas, coal, petroleum, and then imports. And that hydroelectric, that nuclear, that geothermal, they are barely visible on here. And nowadays, we sure can see them. They're also growing. They're growing pretty quickly. And so, year over year, decade over decade, we get to see how technology is directly impacting the energy systems that we rely on day over day. And I love seeing that. I hope that in the future, I am so working on these energy flow charts today that we get to put a nuclear fusion line on that flow chart. Now, wouldn't that be cool? We'll take a vote for what color it should be. Join a team where expertise makes a difference. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is hiring for a nurse practitioner, physician assistant, a senior health physicist, and a laser modeling physicist. And the list of open positions doesn't end there. There are more than 100 job openings across science, engineering, IT, HR, and the skilled trades. This is more than a job. It's an opportunity to help shape the future. Explore all open positions and start your next career adventure today at llnl.gov forward slash careers. That's llnl.gov forward slash careers.