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They're celebrating 50 years in data and AI and long before responsible AI was trendy, they were building systems around transparency, governance and trust. If you're curious about what responsible AI actually looks like, visit sas.com to learn more. That's sas.com. Welcome to Read U Moderates, I'm Jessica Tarlove. And I'm Erin Parness. Happy belated birthday. Thank you. So exciting. Did you take a break from doing the breaking news? No, actually the one thing I wanted for my birthday with the newborn now is to have like a normal day. That's like not newborn heavy. So I actually worked, I went to the gym, I felt like a human again. It was really nice. Oh, that is nice. You were like, I'm not going to be with my baby, I'm just going to be with my phone. Correct. I'm going to be with myself and I needed that, but it's good. Good. I'm glad you found yourself again. Thank you. Welcome to 27. It was so long ago, I can't remember what it was like, but I'm sure that I had a good time. I'm aging, it's very scary, but here we are. Get out of here. All right. Let's talk about the war in Iran. The street of Ramuz is back open to commercial traffic as of this morning. That's according to both President Trump and Iran. And it's expected to stay open through the 10 days ceasefire now in place between Israel and Lebanon. Trump even thanked Iran for reopening the street, but at the same time made it clear that the U.S. isn't backing off pressure. The blockade on Iranian ports is still in effect until there's a broader deal. Notably, Trump also referred to it as the street of Iran. He loves to rename things. I'm not sure what the meaning is, but that's what we call it now, I guess. At the same time, there's a new political wrinkle back home. House Judiciary Democrats are launching an investigation into Jared Kushner. Congressman Jamie Raskin is raising concern about Kushner's financial ties in the Middle East, especially given his role as a peace envoy. I want to get your take first before I talk about my level of confusion as to what's going on now. But all eyes on Sunday, that's when the peace talks should resume in Islamabad. What do you make of the news of the day that the street is open and that Trump has said there will be no money exchanged, even though there are reports that there will be up to $20 billion exchanged for their highly enriched uranium? He's giving Iran palettes of cash. More palettes than Obama even dreamed of. Do you think that's true? Because he does know what a salient criticism that was of the JCPOA. That was the bedrock criticism that we just handed terrorists, even though it was their money, it was $1.7 billion, it was frozen and being held in a Qatari bank. But they used that to bludgeon the Democrats with. Well, for sure. But I think he understands this time around, you can't get a deal unless Iran gets sanctions relief. That's what Iran's ultimate bottom line is. It needs money. Oil is how it gets money. It has a ton of sanctioned oil that's frozen. It has a ton of sanctioned funds that are frozen. It's not going to agree to any deal unless you give it money. And so he's going to give Iran palettes of cash. Now, I will say the Strait of Ormuz isn't open. Iran claims it's open, but they have their own conditions. It's open to only commercial vessels that it deems are commercial. And that they escort them, right? Correct. The IRGC is personally escorting them and they're paying tolls. Okay. That was my question because that has been missing from all of the reporting. And that was the linchpin of all of this, that they were managing to make either two million per vessel and split that with the Omani or the money going into a crypto account on a per barrel basis. So we have no clarity on how much the toll actually is just that there is a toll. Yeah. Iran is saying that there's still a toll. So it's not really open. And then you can't claim it's open on Trump's end and then still have a blockade on Iranian ships. That's not open. That's open, but right? Like that's a contingent, contingent opening. So I don't think it's open. I will say this though. Trump is giving Iran everything it wants in a way, calling this the Strait of Iran. That gives Iran control of the Strait of Ormuz implicitly. Iran didn't have full control of the Strait before the war began. Now it will, at least based on what these talks are. I don't know. Trump, to me, is just like ranting on truth social, doing like mission accomplished every two minutes of like, oh my God, look at this great thing and look at this great thing. But at the end of the day, no one knows what the hell he's talking about. I don't know. Okay. Do you, I want to get back to the JCPOA for a second because if there is a financial aspect to this, right, the easing of the sanctions, returning the cash, and there are sunset clauses on when they can start doing highly enriched uranium again, that sounds a lot like what the JCPOA was. And if it had stayed in place, we would hopefully be renegotiating the next phase of it, basically around this time. Do you think that it is just going to be JCPOA 2026 version? Or do you think that there is a chance that it's going to be markedly different? I don't think it'll be markedly different. I just don't think it'll be markedly better. So I do think it'll be JCPOA kind of 2.0. And then he'll just say this is his nuclear deal and that it was better than Obama's for whatever reason he's going to say it is. I do think though that like the United States has less leverage at this point than we did back 10 years ago. And also then we did back even six weeks ago because I think what the Iranians have learned, and I've said this, I think last week on our episode as well, is that Iran may not have a nuclear weapon in the conventional sense, but the Strait of Ormuz is a nuclear weapon. And if Iran shuts it down, which it did, it completely, not only tanks the global economy, but also tanks Trump standing among the American population. And so Trump knows that very well. And right now, in my opinion, Iran has more leverage than the United States does when it comes to this negotiation. Because I don't think Iran at the end of the day really cares how many installations the United States bombs, as long as it's putting a lot of pressure and pain on the American people in terms of gas prices, fuel prices and more. Well, there's also the element that one of the things that has happened since Trump 1.0 is that Iran has become increasingly isolated in their own region. So you would never think of a scenario in which pre-Trump, Iran would be hitting Saudi, right, or going after desalination plants or oil fields or whatever they want to do. But because the Gulf countries are aligned with us now and not with them, you kind of have a madman in the center of the action with the control of the Strait of Iran to boot, which makes them a lot more of a loose cannon than I think they would have been necessarily in the past. There's also the Chinese element. The administration is saying, we talked to China, they're not helping at all. But there's been reporting first to the FT, it's been confirmed by several other outlets now, including Jennifer Griffin from Fox, that the Iranians have been using Chinese satellites to spy on us. And I'm not sure if that is included in the China isn't helping them anymore, because I think that was vis-a-vis actually delivering weapons that they could use versus their technology. And obviously, that's a very big deal if it is continuing. Oh, for sure. And I think what we're seeing is that the United States is now somewhat isolating itself on the world stage at the same time. What do you make, though? I mean, I saw there was a joint statement from the UK, from Germany, France, and Italy, that they are going to send a naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, so they're using the old name, to protect freedom of navigation. And it does feel like they were waiting until this moment. Trump's out there saying, like, NATO, 20 minutes too late, you're just a paper tiger. But it feels like they are inching towards participation. Yeah. I mean, so I think Europe is realizing that it needs to be a leader in its own right. I think that's what we're seeing more so than Europe kind of capitulating to Trump. I think Europe is realizing, okay, the United States isn't going to be there for us whenever we need the United States. Obviously, Russia is a threat. The Iranians have been a threat. The Chinese are what they are. So we need to be our own kind of leadership block. And I think that's what we're seeing. And I also think over the next many years, in the second Trump term, Europe is going to only have to step up more to defend itself and to protect its own interests as America pulls back. So I don't necessarily think this is because of Trump. More so, I think this is because Europe needs the oil and Europe is trying to get it for themselves. Oh, I mean, that does make sense too. And it kind of kills two birds with one stone, right? That you can say to Trump, like, we're helping out. But really, it's about the fact that Europe's going to run out of jet fuel in six weeks. Correct. I was talking to a friend that flies all the time and says that Lufthansa hasn't flown in three days. They're saying that it's a pilot strike. But apparently in history, they've only ever gone one day without flying before. So obviously, it's hitting them very hard. I wanted to, before we move topics, talk a little bit about morale within the troops. There's this photo of the very meager meals that troops are receiving that apparently have been photo snapped and sent home to family members. Do you get a sense of how folks within the armed forces are feeling about this war and what are the portends also for support for the administration? I spoke into a lot of service members, specifically family members of service members who have been deployed. And they tell me the same thing as that USA Today article. It's just morale is at an all-time low, right? Because a lot of these service members, these aircraft carrier groups, are being deployed for longer than they should be. And as a result, you have things like toilets being clogged and not enough toilets for shipment on an aircraft carrier. You have lack of provisions. Right now, they can't, a lot of families are worried because they can't send anything to the Middle East. Typically, when you have a son or a daughter deployed, you can send them a care package. Right now, that's been suspended indefinitely because of the war. So even if they want to send their daughter, for example, tampons, which they're running out of on some of these ships, they can't do that. And a lot of people are frustrated. You have America spending over a billion dollars a year in defense spending, sorry, more than a trillion dollars. Next year, more than a trillion and a half potentially if Congress goes along with Trump's plan. And our service members are eating brown meat, mystery meat, can't get tampons, can't get hygiene products. I mean, it's unacceptable. It definitely is. I've seen some reports that there's going to be pushback even from the GOP on the $1.5 trillion spending bill for next year. But I imagine that there are ways around it that President Trump and his allies will get to. But it's really saddened. It's great that you've become a point of contact for people to talk about these kinds of things. I mean, just to get on my lady high horse for a second, you always hear about women's sanitary products being the first things to go in this or that even women's shelters, domestic violence shelters, et cetera, don't have them. The pink tax is real. I could do a whole other episode about that. But it's real, 100%. Girl, Dad, got to be thinking about those things. I will say in law school, the one thing I did in student government that I asked her through was making sure that there were feminine products in every bathroom across the school for free. That was like my one thing that I did. So I've been dealing with this for a while. I love that. That's an important one thing to do. I want to talk a little bit about what's going on at home. We have this war going on and then they're still trying to sell the big beautiful bill and the economic policies. It was tax day this week. Average American got a $375 refund. You will be paying $740 more at the pump, which doesn't seem like a great trade-off. We had DoorDash Grandma and at an event in Las Vegas, Trump waved off rising gas prices as fake inflation despite fuel costs spiking and travel getting more expensive. The message is basically, don't believe what you're paying. I would say not to call out my own kind, but we tried that and it really failed. So I don't know why they're repeating our mistakes. All of this comes as younger voters grow more uneasy about the economy and as Trump heads to Arizona today to rally support at a Turning Point USA event with Republicans. They are worried about the chaos drowning out their message. Here's Trump this week not quite understanding what a corner store is. The ends of American small businesses, including restaurants, street cleaners, corner stores. What is a corner store? I've never heard that term. I know what a corner store is, but I've never heard it described a corner store. Who the hell wrote that, please? And more. He knows what it is, but he doesn't know what the hell that it is and who wrote that. It's also the most obvious thing, right? It's the store on the corner. Well, I mean, you wouldn't expect someone who grew up in New York and was like this, like, made man in New York City walking the streets of New York. He wouldn't know what a corner store is. So if we had had said bodega, maybe he would have understood. I actually wish they wrote him bodega because I think you'd get a Jill Biden 2.0 moment and he'd mispronounced bodega. What do you think is going on here, though? I mean, he went a little off script about the DoorDash grandma admitting that it was a tacky stunt. I also don't know how we're not discussing the fact that the problem is that a grandma has to be doing DoorDash. Right. And this grandma who has been a prop at multiple GOP events, we should also add to that. But that seems like the problem that a nice old lady from Arkansas whose husband has cancer cannot be at home with him as a caregiver and has to deliver McDonald's to the Oval Office. That is the problem with America. And seniors are the ones who are even getting the most out of the big, beautiful bill besides the mega rich, right? Because of the 6K refund on social security, which does sunset out. And the no tax on social security is also a lie. We go down the list of it. But she got a hundred dollar tip. She got a tip. I just I hate everything sometimes. Let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Support for the show comes from Prolon. We've all been there. It's Sunday night. And somehow you're more exhausted after your weekend than when it started. Talk about the Sunday scaries. Long work weeks and busy weekends can leave you feeling and looking depleted. And that's where Prolon comes in. Prolon is a plant based nutrition program featuring soups, snacks, and beverages designed to nourish the body while keeping it in a fasting state, triggering cellular rejuvenation and renewal. They say their five day fasting mimicking diet works at the cellular level to reset and rejuvenate you from the inside out to help support sustained fat loss, lean muscle, metabolism, slower aging, and even glowing skin. Ready for your own reset? For a limited time, Prolon is offering our listeners 15% off site wide plus a $40 bonus gift when you subscribe to their five day program. Just visit prolonlife.com slash moderates. That's P-R-O-L-O-N-L-I-F-E dot com slash moderates to claim your 15% discount and your bonus gift. Prolonlife.com slash moderates. Hey, so we're not paying taxes this year, right? Until the Pentagon passes one damn audit, we shouldn't pay any more taxes. People don't want to pay taxes anymore because they don't trust the way the government is spending and tracking our money. Americans are fed up with paying taxes, and I know, I know, but hear me out. Americans are extra fed up with paying taxes lately, according to some Gallup polling and some posting, but are we being short-sighted? I think that it's important to have a government. I think that humans tried anarchy for quite a long time, and it didn't work so well. A lot of people got hit over the head with rocks. We didn't have a whole lot of economic development. Almost everyone agrees that the United States should have a military to protect it from foreign invasion, that we should have law enforcement, firefighting, schools, etc. Anti-taxers and where this could all be heading on today explained, dropping every weekday afternoon. Welcome back. What's going on with younger people? There is no group, aside from less you know voters, where Trump's favorability has fallen the fastest. What do you think they're thinking about this? When they see stuff like this, because his stunts have resonated before. McDonald's during the campaign, the garbage truck, etc. It was like, Trump is so funny, and it seems like they don't find him so funny anymore. Well, it's different when you're campaigning and saying you're going to do all these things, and then you're in office and have the power to do all these things, and you're not actually doing them. So I think that's the difference. He campaigned unaffordability. America is more unaffordable today than it was when he took office. Young people see that. We go to the gas pumps, we're paying $700 more in gas. My alma mater, GW, $100,000 a year for tuition, which I don't know what we're paying $100,000 for. I'm not giving money back to my school because they don't need the money. They're charging people up to Wazoo. So America is unaffordable. It's less affordable today than it was a year ago. It's less affordable today than it was two years ago. Young people are fed up. It's again, a president, a politician who sold them this bill of goods, and they're not actually getting anything good out of it. So I don't know what Trump expects. I mean, I don't think he cares personally because he's like, well, I'm leaving. I'm not running for reelection no matter how much he wants to. But I don't think he realizes, and I really hope that the Democrats kind of follow through on their threats, what these investigations are going to be like for the next two years, when they take over the House and the Senate, because it's going to be a painful two years for him. I don't think he realizes that. I don't know. There was Anthony Scaramucci came on and he was saying something similar that Trump doesn't really care what happens after him because at least he can then also say, like, you couldn't do it without me, basically, but living through the last two years of his administration, if Democrats, I mean, we should reclaim the House, but potentially, you know, taking the Senate back is going to be a very ugly process. I want to talk Scott Besson for a second, another report that he beat up another member of the administration. I just love how many people he punches. It was Bill Polti. There's also reporting that Polti was the one behind the AI-generated image of him as Jesus that he then said was a doctor. Oh, really? Yeah, which I kind of loved. I was like, all roads lead to Bill Polti being awful. Okay, so Besson, maybe punches Bill Polti. And then he also had to say this about affordability, which really blew my mind and I was bummed I couldn't work it in on the five. Why aren't we seeing this sentiment? Why are people feeling better? Well, I, you know, I, when I was in the investment business, there are consumer surveys, but I used to look at what are the people really doing. So at Treasury, we have loads of CEOs come through, whether they're in retail, credit card, the banks, and the consumer, while they may be sounding grim, is actually quite buoyant. So we are seeing spending has been very solid across most categories. So they might not feel good, but... Well, look, in the heart of hearts, they feel good. I'm not sure what they're telling the survey, people. Can someone like ask him how much he pays for a gallon of milk? Please? Because I don't think he even knows. And his Barbie dream house? He's worth $500 million. Like, he doesn't impact him. This is Chuck's age to him. I know it's like the new Wilbur Ross with the Campbell's soup can is also crazy as the consumer sentiment data shows the lowest in recorded history. Like, they just started in the 1960s, so we couldn't even go further back than that. It has never felt as shitty for Americans as it does right now. And he's like, well, actually, if you look inside your heart, you'll know how good you have it. I look inside my heart every day. I don't feel like I'm paying less today, and it's great in the economy and all that jazz. So... Well, also, nothing more expensive than a newborn baby. Correct. Everything is insane. I mean, talk about such a racket. Yeah. I know. Yeah, especially the diapers, and they go through them so fast. I think diapers should be free. But that's my other hot take, is that Congress should pass legislation to subsidize all diaper purchases. I love it. I can't get Huckabee and Jefferies to give us any policies, but we could run an entire midterm on free diapers. Yeah. Let's both hit them with that. Perfect. Free diapers would be great. I want to talk a little RFK Jr. He's back on the hill for day two. He's going to go seven days, which feels like a slow and painful death. He's already talked about issues of fraud and vaccines, other public health issues. This is also the side by side on the raccoon penis story, which we did cover on the five. I couldn't get Besson in, but we talked about the raccoon. But in a seeming reversal, Kennedy testified that the measles vaccine was safe and effective for most people and agreed it was safer than contracting measles. So, progress is slow, but certain. This comes after President Trump announced he'll nominate Dr. Erica Schwartz to head the CDC, a choice who is in the past shown support for vaccines and appears to be a normal human being. My feeling on this is that the administration knows what a liability RFK Jr. is, and so they're bringing in someone that can be a more competent face to the health and safety side of this and let him just talk about red dyes and yellow dyes and food and things like that that are safer for all of us. But what's your RFK read? No, I actually agree with you on that front because I was looking into her and I thought that she was a normie. She was like, okay, fine. Well-qualified. She'll probably be confirmed overwhelmingly. I don't think, unless they dig up something in her past that I couldn't find, RFK Jr., I feel like what they do with these cabinet secretaries when they don't like them, they put them in front of Congress. And they're just like, let's see how you do. They did that with Pam Bondi. Like the Hunger Games? No, but literally Pam Bondi down under 50,000. She's out a couple months later. Kristi Noem lies in front of Congress and John Kennedy out a few days later. Could RFK Jr. be next? Potentially. Oh, I like it. Also, could I put in a request? I would like to see Pete Hexeth on the Hill. I would like more Tulsi Gamba. Well, then you're going to have to work with him again. I don't think that, don't talk to me about that. I don't think that. I don't know how the exodus works. Like if you leave at the administration, if you just- If you go back. If you come back. The seats have been filled. Want to do a little Epstein as well with you. We had the weird Melania Trump statement and now seems like that's linked to the story that Amanda Ongaro is going to tell. What is your read on kind of where that stands? And President Trump has apparently said that he's okay with the survivors having a public hearing. Do you believe that? And what do you think is coming on the Melania front? Of course, I believe that because he's setting them up for failure. I thought Melania was setting up for failure too. I mean, and the survivors said this themselves, it's not their responsibility to testify in front of Congress. It's their responsibility to give information to law enforcement, which they did, right? Like law enforcement hasn't done the job. So what I've been saying, what I've been screaming for like at the top of my lungs for the past week is that this is just, Todd Blanche is newly installed as acting attorney general. They want to throw the heat off of the Department of Justice as it relates to Epstein. And so what are they going to do? Oh, Congress, it's your responsibility now. Hold the hearing. And if you don't hold the hearing, then Blanche will say, well, we gave them the opportunity and they didn't hold the hearing. That's all that's happening here. They're setting the survivors up for failure. And I mean, Trump said victims or whatever. I mean, he, a derogatory remark about the survivors. And as far as Melania Trump thing goes, I think that she's been personally peeved about everyone talking about her connection, a valid connection to Glyn Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. You have an email, a very friendly email, mind you, where she wants to talk with Maxwell on the phone. I think she's upset that people keep talking about it and she just wants to do her own thing and she wants to get out in front of something that's coming out. Could be the Amanda and Garo thing. It could be something regarding Michael Wolfe. It could be something regarding Pam Bondi. I don't know. I don't think anyone really knows right now. Or it could just be Melania, just being Melania and just saying, like, you know, it's screw it. I'm going to come out and say my piece and move on because no one wants to hear it inside the administration. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I'm not even sure actually that we'll really find out. That's a good point about the survivors. And that's also coupled with Todd Blanche, one on Fox earlier this week, and said that all the documents were out. Yeah. Dan Apareon and Bill Hammer asked him and he was like, don't, we did our job. Correct. If they put Todd Blanche up, not just as interim AG, but for confirmation, do you think he gets confirmed? I do because you only need 50 votes. Yeah. But Tom Tillis still exists, even though Trump told Maria Bartiromo he wasn't a senator anymore. But Tom Tillis exists to a point. He'll still confirm. He voted to confirm Blanche the first time around. Like, nothing's changed since Blanche was first confirmed. We knew this is who he was. And they're all going to come back to, oh, the president deserves to have whatever he wants in the cabinet. Well, especially if the Democrats are about to come into power and make our lives miserable, so we better do things fast. Correct. Which brings me to a question that I have wanted to ask you and meant to text you about. Justice Ted Cruz? Yes. Justice Ted Cruz or based Mike Lee, which I think is a complete, I think all of that is a complete joke, but do you think that they are going to force Alito out in time, try to get another nominee through before the midterms? I do, but I actually don't know why they would. I have such a hard time with this. If I'm Donald Trump, the one justice who's always on my side and is so radical to the point that he'll do anything I ask him to do is Alito. Alito finds a way to literally agree with everything this administration does, even if it is a radical position. I don't want to force someone like that out. I just don't. I think Alito can survive another six years if he has to. Now, I don't know that he wants to. I think he's going to retire in July, but I don't know that if I'm Trump, I want him out. But then again, the alternative, it could be someone like Ted Cruz. I wouldn't put a past Trump to nominate Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court. I don't know that he'd get confirmed, but. That feels like a bridge too far and that also the senators know too much. They've been dealing with him forever. Sure. I would argue Kavanaugh was a bridge too far, though, right? The allegations, right? That to me is worse than- But they didn't know him. I mean, it is well documented that even Ted Cruz's friends don't like Ted Cruz. So, and he has also been much more biased. Or what about Justice Eileen Cannon, right? Like I wouldn't put that past Trump. Oh, our old friend from the Mar-a-Lago documents case in Jan 6th. Exactly. She has been working overtime. I want to wrap on Mom Donnie. We had his first 100 days. He has a new policy for taxing the rich, a pediatric tax on homes worth over 5 million that aren't the owner's primary residence. It's supported by 93% of New Yorkers. No one asked me fake polls. I don't know. But actually, this makes a lot of sense. It doesn't apply to you either. It definitely does not apply to me. But he had a bit of fun with it at the press conference. Let's look at that. Philanthropy has long played an essential role in New York City as an incubator for change and as a powerful tool to expand access to city programs. I like to think of it this way. Government is driving the race car and Philanthropy is there to give it that turbo boost to cross the finish line. Or if you are a Mario Kart fan, government is Yoshi and Philanthropy is the golden mushroom. That edge we need to beat Bowser on the Rainbow Road. To belabor this metaphor even further, Bowser is corporate greed in this scenario. I love young people in office. Come on. I was about to say he's so millennial coded, which is old for you, but still young. Definitely old for me, but still young. I feel old these days. I'm 27. I'm almost there. But yeah, I like Go Zoran. I think he's winning a lot of people over who were not enthusiastic about his mayoralty. You're seeing that not only in the surveys, but just in real life. I spoke at an event on Monday night with a bunch of centrist Democrats, a lot of Jews who were very concerned about what was going to happen under Mamdani's control in the city. I was talking about how people are really connecting with the fact that it's just obvious that Mamdani cares and how desperate people had been for folks in elected office who seemed like they cared about the place that they represented, but especially cared about the most vulnerable. No one can really fight with that. You can say the free grocery store that will cost $30 million and won't be out for a few years. You can pick at that stuff, of course, but- No, I think he's doing great work. Honestly, someone else, I think that's doing great work that needs to be highlighted. Jessica Tarlove has a new book out. Go pre-order it right now. Go on. That's enough. September 15th. It's out. Go buy it now. Yeah. Totally. I'm excited about it. Me too. As a reminder, Raging Moderates is five days a week, new episodes dropping every weekday, evening on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, everywhere else. Also, in addition to being five days a week, we're now on sub-stack. Subscribers get ad-free episodes, live streams, Place to Engage with me and Scott, other listeners, the whole ProphG fam. Find us at ragingmoderates.prophgmedia.com. Aaron, it was great to see you and I'll see you next week. See you next week. Bye, everyone.
