The Stock Picking Philosophy to Find the Next Amazon with Motley Fool's David Gardner
71 min
•Apr 24, 20264 days agoSummary
David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, discusses his six-trait framework for identifying rule-breaking stocks that outperform the market over decades. He emphasizes the importance of picking individual stocks in emerging industries with sustainable competitive advantages, strong management, and consumer appeal—even when Wall Street calls them overvalued.
Insights
- The best stock picks typically appreciate 30-90% in the 3-9 months before recommendation, contradicting conventional 'buy low' wisdom; momentum signals market validation of emerging winners
- Companies that lose 50%+ of value repeatedly (Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, NVIDIA) are feature, not bug—volatility indicates rule-breaking disruption; holding through crashes compounds gains exponentially
- Right-brain factors (CEO quality, brand strength, culture, innovation capacity) drive long-term returns but don't appear on financial statements, creating an edge for discerning investors in algorithmic markets
- Subscription business models and disruptive pricing (Netflix's no late fees vs. Blockbuster's fee-driven model) fundamentally reshape industries; consumer friction points signal opportunity
- Purpose-driven, conscious capitalism companies (Amazon, Netflix, Chick-fil-A) outperform competitors by treating employees, customers, and partners better—profit and purpose align
Trends
Individual stock picking gaining credibility as countertrend to passive indexing dominance; 'big dumb money' in index funds creates alpha opportunity for active pickersAI as plate-tectonic shift creating multiple industries; early beneficiaries (NVIDIA, semiconductors) will be joined by companies not yet founded, similar to post-internet emergence of Google/UberDisruptive business model innovation (subscription, assembly-line fresh food, robotic surgery) outpaces incremental product improvement; model disruption precedes market recognitionReal-time/continuous financial transparency replacing quarterly reporting as investor expectation; technology enables 24/7 portfolio monitoring and company disclosureConsumer brand strength and visionary leadership becoming primary valuation drivers in growth markets; traditional P/E ratios inadequate for rule-breaker valuationsConscious capitalism and ESG alignment with stock performance; companies treating stakeholders well systematically outperform extractive competitorsStreaming and digital-first entertainment replacing transactional retail models; subscription economics create recurring revenue and customer lock-in advantagesRobotic/AI-assisted surgery and minimally invasive procedures becoming standard care; technology adoption in healthcare accelerating despite initial skepticism
Topics
Rule Breaker Investing Framework (Six Traits)Individual Stock Picking vs. Index Fund Passive InvestingDisruptive Innovation and Clayton Christensen's Innovator's DilemmaSustainable Competitive Advantage (Moats)CEO Quality and Visionary Leadership as Valuation DriverConsumer Brand Strength and Customer LoveStock Price Momentum as Market Validation SignalHolding Through 50%+ Drawdowns and Market CrashesSubscription Business Model EconomicsConscious Capitalism and Purpose-Driven CompaniesEarly Adoption and Emerging Industry IdentificationFinancial Statement Limitations and Right-Brain AnalysisQuarterly Reporting vs. Real-Time TransparencyDisruptive Pricing Models and Customer FrictionLong-Term Compounding and Multi-Decade Holdings
Companies
Amazon
Flagship rule-breaker pick from 1997 at $3, down to $0.07 (split-adjusted), now 1000+ bagger; exemplifies holding thr...
NVIDIA
21-year holding; evolved from gaming GPU maker to AI infrastructure leader; 16-cent cost basis; lost 50% in 2022, now...
Netflix
Disrupted Blockbuster's late-fee model with subscription; held through multiple 50%+ crashes including Qwikster pivot...
Tesla
Picked 2011, still holding; electric vehicle rule breaker; license plate 'FUTURE' in D.C.; extreme volatility but lon...
Apple
Early skepticism on iPod profitability (2004-05) despite 'overvaluation'; became multi-trillion company through ecosy...
AOL
First rule-breaker pick (1994); 150-bagger despite being voted 'most overvalued stock' by economists; merged with Tim...
Starbucks
1998 View appearance pick; dropped 30% immediately, booed on return; went up 33x; exemplifies holding through initial...
Intuitive Surgical
Robotic surgery pioneer (da Vinci); 100+ bagger from 73x P/E valuation; minimally invasive procedure advantage
Chipotle
Assembly-line fresh food model; innovator in fast-casual dining; disruptive to traditional QSR
Blockbuster
Netflix disruption case study; rejected $50M acquisition offer; late-fee model created customer friction
Chick-fil-A
Conscious capitalism example; leadership academy masquerading as chicken joint; closed Sundays; outperforms competitors
Shopify
Rule breaker from 2016; e-commerce infrastructure; up and down but mostly up; modern-era pick
Uber
Emerged 10+ years after internet penetration; disruptive transportation model; didn't exist when internet launched
Google
Emerged post-internet boom; search dominance; didn't exist during early internet era
Broadcom
Semiconductor innovator in AI infrastructure buildout; top-dog competitor to NVIDIA
AMD
Semiconductor competitor; AI chip beneficiary; important emerging industry player
Microsoft
Software innovator; mentioned as top-dog in important emerging industries
Duolingo
Language learning app; consumer-noticeable innovation; modern rule-breaker example
Cava
Mediterranean fast-casual; Chipotle model applied to different cuisine; emerging innovator
Striker
Medical device company; larger diversified player in robotic surgery space vs. Intuitive Surgical
People
David Gardner
Discusses 30-year track record picking rule-breaker stocks; author of Rule Breaker Investing; English major turned st...
Barry Ritholtz
Interviewer; financial analyst; discusses personal experiences with Motley Fool stock picks on trading desk
Tom Gardner
David's brother; co-founded Motley Fool in 1993 with David; Brown University graduate
Louis Rukeyser
PBS financial show host; David wrote for his newsletter; longest-running financial TV show; known for wit and 'elves'...
Warren Buffett
Referenced for 'moat' concept; compared to David's approach; criticized for recent underperformance vs. rule breakers
Peter Lynch
Appeared on Wall Street Week; mentor influence on David; legendary stock picker
Clayton Christensen
Wrote The Innovator's Dilemma; influenced David's disruptive innovation thinking; hero to David
Jeff Bezos
Amazon CEO; example of visionary leadership; considered egomaniac by some but net value contributor
Reed Hastings
Netflix founder; culture innovator; 80-page culture deck shared publicly; conscious capitalism example
Steve Jobs
Apple CEO; example of visionary leadership; desired CEO type for rule-breaker companies
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO; visionary leadership example; value creation not captured in financial statements
Howard Schultz
Starbucks founder/CEO; occasionally conservative leadership; stock drops created buying opportunity
Ted Leonsis
AOL visionary; told Motley Fool to compete with AOL on web; believed in showing web monetization
Michael Lewis
Wrote Liars Poker about Salomon Brothers; overlapped with David's 1986 summer internship era
Bill James
Mentor; influenced Moneyball; convinced David of fun in counting numbers; journalist
Jack Bogle
Index fund pioneer; deeply admired by David; Motley Fool supporter of indexing
Kevin Kelly
Founded Wired; wrote The Inevitable; genius futurist; David fan
Steven Pinker
Data-driven optimist; counters pessimism bias; reminds of human progress
Hans Rosling
Our World in Data; data-driven optimism; similar to Steven Pinker
Tin Nguyen
Wrote The Score; games philosopher; David reading now; appeared on David's podcast
Arthur Brooks
Writes about happiness; wrote Love Your Enemies; addresses divisiveness
Danny Funt
Wrote Everybody Loses about American sports gambling rise; on David's reading list
Quotes
"I believe it is a worthy thing to choose stocks. I really want to find the best companies of our time, and I want to own them for a long period of time."
David Gardner
"Most of the things that win in business are not actually on the financial statements. Who's running the company? That is incredibly important. How about the brand value of a company? The culture of the company. Can it innovate?"
David Gardner
"When people stop calling stuff overvalued and every analyst on the street has a strong buy on it, that's usually when you want to be on the other side of that."
Barry Ritholtz
"The stock dropped 30% in just a couple of months. And we went back on the show to update the story. And they booed us good-naturedly... And then they've never invited us back since. And it's gone up 33 times the value from our first appearance."
David Gardner
"If you follow the company as opposed to the zigs and zags on the stock charts or the headlines, you're going to be much more patient, I think, as an investor. And that has been my superhero power."
David Gardner
Full Transcript
Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value in fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive and murky. Lots of firms throw a couple of flashy funds your way and call it a day. Vanguard takes a different approach. The Vanguard lineup includes over 80 bond funds actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. Lots of firms love to highlight their star portfolio managers like it's all about that one brilliant mind that makes the magic happen. Vanguard's philosophy is different. They believe the best active strategy shouldn't be one person. It should be shared across the team. So if you're looking to offer your clients funds that are built to deliver consistent results, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. This week on the podcast, I had so much fun chatting with David Gardner of The Motley Fool. I remember The Fool back in 93, 94 when it first launched on AOL. What a fascinating career. If you're a stock picker, if you're someone who really is committed to finding the best companies and then riding them for decades, you're going to find this conversation really fascinating. I thought his book was really interesting. His whole approach to life, to investing is really great. I enjoyed our conversation. And I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with The Motley Fool's David Gardner. Thank you, Barry. It's a delight to be with you. Thank you so much. I have a vivid recollection of sitting on a trading desk and watching you guys pop onto TV at various times. And as soon as you guys showed up, I'm like, all right, let me pull up NVIDIA and Netflix. I knew they would start running and then soon turn around and fade. So it's always, I mean, just intraday, we'll get a little later to the difference between investing and trading. Yes, sir. But first, I have to go back to your background because it's so unusual. University of North Carolina on a Moorhead scholarship focused on a bachelor's in English and creative writing. I assume Wall Street was not the original career plan. It actually was a career plan as I came to UNC Chapel Hill as a freshman. I was telling people, I think I'm going to go to work on Wall Street. I had a formative summer in between my sophomore and junior year where I worked at Solomon Brothers back in the day, the Good Friend era. I think Michael Lewis was writing Liars Poker somewhere around then. Late 80s, I think, the first drop. The year was 1986 for me that I was at Solomon. You probably overlapped with him at the same time. It was, I don't recall, Michael, and I'm really glad to see where he's gone on to great heights. But that was the summer I learned I was never going to want to go work on Wall Street. That was a really wonderful experience. I just realized it's not a culture that I'm going to probably spend time with as an adult. And so that was so helpful. I love the markets. I just wasn't a Wall Street person. And you grew up in a household where markets, investing, stocks were part of the daily conversation. Your dad helped you win a high school stock picking contest. Tell us a little bit about that. Sure. It was actually earlier than that. It was fifth grade. It was fourth grade. Really? My dad probably did what other dads did, pick stocks for their son in this all boys school, St. Albans school I went to in Washington, D.C. And I remember he had Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. He had Getty Oil. This is bad. These companies aren't around anymore too much. But that was my stock portfolio. And over the course of three months, I outperformed my classmates. And so I won a gigantic Hershey bar. Like to my 10-year-old eyes, it was the biggest Hershey bar I'd ever seen. But it was a wonderful introduction. You know, the real exercise then, Barry, was just to look in the newspaper to write down 16 and 5-8s where the stocks closed. We would do that once a week over the course of three months and just start understanding the markets. So that was an early experience. But really, Dad was so formative for me as an investor. It's always fun talking to the youngsters who grew up with decimalization. Yeah. Because I vividly recall, what's the price? Up a teeny. You don't get that anymore. It's a whole. It's a whole. A lot of your listeners do, Barry. And I get it. 16th and right. I get it. Yeah. Right. Up a stick, up a half, whatever it happened to be. And then how did you end up writing for Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street newsletter? Yeah. So I started out of college, took a couple of years to read and write and travel a lot, got married without a job. And then it was time at the age of 24 to get my first job. And as it turns out, the newsletter that was supporting Louis Rukeyser, you remember his show Wall Street Week? Sure. Longest running show on PBS. And he had a newsletter, a financial newsletter. And I got to write the back page of that newsletter for that first job. We were reaching hundreds of thousands of people. I could pick whatever topic I wanted. So it was really fun, except it ended up not being fun. And the reason it wasn't fun is because I would pick a subject like discount brokers, which was a brand new amazing thing back then in 1992. Schwab, what's that? Or Quicken. There's now software. You can DVD load onto your computer and track your finances and your stock. So I would write these up and then the edited version would come back with all of my jokes, color and fun stripped. and the second half freshly written by my editor explaining all the reasons you wouldn't want to use a discount broker or quicken and that's because i was instructed i was never never took a journalism course but i was just an english major but they told me you know we have to balance it out here david in fact rukeyser is the personality he's the color of this newsletter not you we're not we're stripping out the color and also you got to be you got to talk about the downside of discount brokers and quick. And I was like, I don't want to do that. I don't see downside. Well, the downside is you're taking money out of stockbrokers' children's mouths. I mean, what's the downside of paying less to trade? Yeah. Well, I discovered that the downside was a job that just was kind of creatively deadening. It doesn't really reflect on Luke Kaiser. It was the goal of that newsletter, just to supplement his TV show and all the rest. So, but after six months, I quit the job because I was just like, this is not fun. There's an argument to be had that Rukeyser was peak financial television and it's been downhill ever since. Like an hour a week is plenty. Was he a half hour or an hour? I don't even remember. He was an hour a week. I think it was an hour a week. It was generally Friday. It would air at different times. Friday night. Friday night. I remember him from Friday nights. And you remember his wit? He always had a monologue. Very dry. Right. Let's go over to our, what was it? Elves? Wizards? I'm trying to remember. Elves, right? I think it was elves. And it was always fascinating. And I, you know, it's funny. I've seen as many of those on YouTube decades later that I saw as many as I've seen live on Friday night. OK. Like I got no plans. All right. Let's see what Louis has to say. That's really fun that you would go back and revisit. You know, I'll just say he was he was a wit. He was himself outside of Wall Street. I mean, he's sort of a journalist, but he enjoyed bringing together brilliant minds on Wall Street. You know, he had Peter Lynch. He would regularly focus Lynch and others. Peter Lynch, Lizanne Saunders. He'd go down the list of people that he had. I'm trying to remember, was it Paul Tudor Jones before the 87 crash? Might well have. Basically saying, I'm out of stocks. I'm short. I think something terrible is about to happen. and then Black Monday happened. There was no other place to see stuff like that, except we take it for granted today that, oh, you want to see something? It's out there. Yeah, Bloomberg, CNBC. Right. I remember FNN was like the early player. CNN pre-CNBC. Definitely. And then CNN FN was another one. You are right. We're going down memory lane. Is this what your audience wants, Barry? No, no, it is not what they want. memory lane here but i'm enjoying it but so so let let's talk about you go from rukeyser where did the idea um with you and your brother working in a shed in the backyard where did the idea come from hey i want to put my own ideas with personality into a newsletter like how did that become an actual product well i quit that job with nothing to go to and then my brother's best friend from Brown University. They both went to Brown. Eric said, hey, David, I went to Brown, but shockingly, I really know nothing about investing in the stock market. I'm from great education, great family. I'm a television sports producer. What's going on in stocks? So would you teach me? So I spent a couple of nights just sitting down with Eric going, you know, here's what I look at. Here's what I do. I was raised in a family where you buy individual stocks. We're not just going to index here. We're going to be choiceful. and we had so much fun. Eric's like, why don't we open up? This is a newsletter. You have no job now. You just work for a newsletter. I was like, okay, let's do that. And then I flipped through a book of quotations one night and I settled on a fool, a fool. I see a fool in the forest, a motley fool. And I just thought, you know- Shakespeare, those are some, as you like it, act two, scene seven for those keeping score at home. But for me, this was, you know, a character I loved studying, certainly going through school and everyone loves Shakespeare's fools. They could tell the king or queen the truth and they did so with humor. The only one who could get away with it. That's right. They were given license to tell the truth. So I sort of loved it. Also, great lines like, a fool and his money are soon parted, you know, gave us a steep hill to climb as we tried to build trust with people. Why would you call yourselves fools? And it started there. And it started as a print newsletter. You mentioned that, Barry. It was July of 1993 was the first issue. $48 a year. The only people who subscribed, our parents' friends. They were the only ones who pay us $48 a year. Our friends sure weren't going to for our financial advice back then. But as we started that newsletter, 1993, early 94, we were signing on using our modem, our telephone onto AOL, Prodigy and CompuServe, the big three in the early private online services battle. And we were starting to discover this new medium and getting fascinated by it. And I recall AOL as a stock was two or three dollars in the early 90s. something really moderate before it had a hellacious run straight up for that whole decade. What was it like? First of all, you guys got fool.com today. Nobody else wanted it. Every proper noun, every dictionary word is taken. Although who knows what AI and the slow shift from Google from SEO to AI is going to do to all these domains. But But like domains changed hands for millions of dollars. It's kind of crazy. You went to get fool.com. No competition. Yeah. Nobody wants fool.com. Oh, my God. So the missed opportunity was I could domain squat every proper now. So you launched the website. How long was it before it got some traction? So we really launched, first of all, Barry, it was August 4th of 1994. It was just on AOL because this is pre-World Wide Web. People were not using that phrase yet. 97 was Netscape, right? Yeah, I would actually say 96-ish was when we started coming online on the web. But no, it was just keyword fool on AOL. But AOL was going through a period of dynamic growth. Unbelievable. So it was fantastic for us. We launched in August. By November, we were written up in the New Yorker in the talk of the town section. And then we had agents and publishers saying, there's a book here, guys. And we're on television. We have a radio show, Coast to Coast. We just we were like the early pioneers who believed in this new medium. And we were going offline as fast as we could to everybody else was trying to come on online. Exactly. So. So you were you're already in. It's almost embarrassing to use the phrase cyberspace. So you were online, but you use on the information superhighway. But all the traditional media to point towards the Web site. How long did it take before you kind of said to yourself, hey, this is real business. I don't have to go get a job. I could just build this. We started at such a good time because AOL, as you'll recall, was a pay per hour service. That's right. In the beginning anyway. Correct. Like $3.25. I think they raised it to four at one point. Right. And so the business model was remarkable for us. If somebody spent an hour at Keyword Fool, we would get 10% of that. So if they're paying AOL four bucks an hour. 40 cents? 40 cents for any hour that anybody would spend at our site. And so with a tiny staff and a big dog that was mailing out CDs and DVDs to get on AOL that serves as cocktail coasters at parties, we really benefited from that ramp. And so we began to be able to hire other people. When the CDs started getting mailing, I think they had moved to like all you can do. eat $10 a month or something like that. It was more like 30 bucks a month. $29.95. Yeah. I don't, I don't remember exactly what it was. I just remembered that that was the end of surprise bills. Oh, it's infinite. Okay, great. I'm on 24 seven. And that hurt our business a lot. It also was a major inflection point. Yeah. Because we had built a site that was really fun to visit. We had very active forums. We were publishing multiple times a day. Lots of people were showing up. There were even chat rooms back then, right? People were spending time online and 40 cents for every hour. So we were starting to hire people. And then within a few years, AOL went flat rate. And all of a sudden we had been the stars of AOL. They were putting us forth at their partners conference. We were on the cover of Fortune magazine just three years after we started a print newsletter. We were right out front. And then we became kind of poison for AOL In this sense, every hour that anybody spent, AOL had to pay connect fees. Now it's a cost instead of a- Yeah, they're only charging $30 flat a month. And so all of a sudden, magnet sites like ours were not as popular. And then meanwhile, AOL, understandably, no harm, no foul here, but they were starting to launch AOL finance and AOL stocks and competing directly with kind of where we'd camped out and built our base. Hold my beer. we're going to launch our own website, whether people access it through you or not. Yeah, that's fine. So and we know the how how the AOL story ended at that point. You're thinking, oh, this is a big issue. How long did it take before the website hit the same sort of, oh, this is a self-sustaining business? Yeah. So we launched the website alongside our AOL site with our first book, The Motley Fool Investment Guide in the summer of 1996. And the website, AOL took part ownership in us. So we gave a minority interest in our company to AOL. And they're like, guys, go out on the web, compete with your own site, compete with us. Ted Leonsis, who is a real visionary. And Ted was like, guys, no one's making money on the web. Show anybody how to make money here on the web. And so we built our website and we started pointing people to both our website and our AOL site. And as it grew and as AOL went flat rate, the good news for us is a lot more people came online at that point. 30 bucks a month versus $4 an hour, a lot. That's mainstream. And also good news for us is that we could survive as a free site. So we could now be free for a lot of people. The bad news was we've shifted business models straight up advertising. At that point, it's all about eyeballs and clicks. And your customer, our customer just changed because our customer had been the beloved fellow individual investor who was taking a risk to even go online back in the day. And there they were paying four bucks an hour and they loved us and they were our members and they were paying us directly. All of a sudden they became the product that we sold to advertisers, right? Because that's obviously the free ad business is your customer base, your eyeballs are now your new product. And as a reminder for the youngsters listening, 96, 97, Wait, you want me to give my credit card to a random? This is like early days of Amazon, early days of AOL. All right. There were a handful of companies you might trust, but there's a million websites. I don't trust any of these guys. I heard that over and over again. How long was it before you people felt, oh, we could subscribe to this newsletter? We could give these people money to manage. What was the the forward timeline? So thank you for that memory, because this is very important. Anytime a new technology shows up, it's generally we're fearful about it. What is AI going to do to jobs? Well, back back then, I had a tech buddy who always used to tell me, if you want to know where technology goes, watch the X rated stuff, because they'll be the first with micro payments. They'll be the first with faster than real time and streaming and things like that. And it turns out that that's a big driver of online business, even to this day. Yeah. And I think that's that's true. So you're right. Premium experiences and premium services are where the web has ended up. However, there was a whole shift. 98, 99, 2000, you really couldn't charge for anything on the web. If we had tried to say, you now shall pay for our site or we have a subscription service, we would have been laughed at At the same time though as a stock picker I was picking AOL Stock saying I think this is an amazing company And it sure enough was It ended up being 150 bagger at its top. Didn't end there, but it was still a remarkable investment. And lots of people had followed us into AOL and other stocks like the Amazon. And it was really going against conventional wisdom at the time to say, buy Amazon, buy AOL. And so I want people to remember that because now it looks so obvious. I mean, AOL didn't end well. Amazon has ended really, really well. It hasn't ended. Right. That's right. So it's important to remember those moments because we tend to forget them. We also forget the dawn of AI. This is first inning of this ballgame and people will look back and go, it's all so obvious in retrospect. Right. It's always obvious in retrospect. It is indeed. It's at the time. It's really challenging. So last question in this segment, if you were starting The Motley Fool in 2026 instead of 1993, so we have social media, we have free trading, we have ETFs everywhere. The world is so different today than it was 40 years ago. What would you do 30 years ago anyway? What would you do differently? How would you build a site and a business today, this time around? Well, I think, first of all, one thing that we know today that we didn't do back then that I think is very helpful in every era is to be a purpose-driven business and to state what is your mission, what is your purpose, and really hue to that and breathe through that and hire for that and promote because of that. And conscious capitalism is one of my themes as an investor and a board that I've served on. So I now have those eyes that I didn't have back then. And I think that that is such a strong thing. Most of the best companies I know, look at crazy business of fast food chicken. Chick-fil-A is an amazing company. I wish it were a public market company. It would have been one of my stock picks, but they just fundamentally act differently than McDonald's and their competitors. And it's because it's like a leadership academy masquerading as a chicken joint. Still closed on Sunday. Yeah, exactly. Which is their choice. Radical. So those are the kinds of companies that I admire And like, that's what I've always wanted the Motley Fool to be. So I would do that in earnest today in a way that I think would cut through a lot of the noise and people saying there's too many choices and all the rest. Standing for something and then living that every day. Most of the best companies that I can think of do that. So I would be trying to do that, Barry. But yeah, it is a different world. I mean, we one thing that's changed, I think, for the worse. And I'm an optimist. Almost everybody's mailing it in with index funds these days. Like I was raised in an era where it was kind of normal, at least in my family, buy a stock. These days, the conventional wisdom has become you'd be crazy to buy individual stocks. That's so risky. Just index. And while I admire Jack Bogle deeply and I appreciate indexing and The Motley Fool has always been a big supporter of index funds, have we really got an era where you shouldn't even pay attention or care anymore? and you can't probably beat the market because it would just be luck to pick Chick-fil-A over Kentucky Fried Chicken? I don't think so. I didn't think so back then. And so I would be definitely sounding that loud and clear today. There's even more big dumb money sloshing around than ever before because so much is just throwing it at everything and not discerning this one versus that one. Really, really interesting. Coming up, we continue our conversation with David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, discussing his book, Rule Breaker Investing, how to pick the best stocks of the future and build lasting wealth. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value in fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive and murky. Lots of firms throw a couple of flashy funds your way and call it a day. Vanguard takes a different approach. The Vanguard lineup includes over 80 bond funds actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. Lots of firms love to highlight their star portfolio managers like it's all about that one brilliant mind that makes the magic happen. Vanguard's philosophy is different. They believe the best active strategy shouldn't be one person. It should be shared across the team. So if you're looking to offer your clients funds that are built to deliver consistent results, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. As markets move and headlines break, what matters most is context. A Bloomberg subscription gives you unmatched reporting, sharp analysis, and powerful tools that help you connect the dots. Visit Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer to learn more. So I want to talk a little bit about the philosophy around rule breaking, investing and stock selection. One of the things that jumped out of the book from your framework was top dog and first mover, customer love, visionary leadership. Discuss. Yeah, well, thank you. These are some of the traits that I'm looking for in stocks. And I think before we start this, Barry, I should just again underline, I believe it is a worthy thing to choose stocks. I really want to find the best companies of our time, and I want to own them for a long period of time. And actually, for many people, it's actually easier to find Amazon or eBay back in that era or NVIDIA more recently, but to actually hold them, to hold them, to allow them to multiply in the way that they will if you do. in my experience that's hardest for let's talk about that because amazon after the dot-com crash plummeted to single digits yep apple has had more near-death experiences than i can count nvidia go down the list google facebook tesla facebook's ipo was a disaster it got cut in half like within a few months of that and then they kind of unlocked mobile and it was off to the races. Yeah, Tesla, these companies trade more like cryptocurrencies than companies. How do you find the confidence and the commitment to stay with something down 40, 60, 80 percent? So thank you. And I would say, first of all, it's not worth doing that for every investment. Certainly, if it were some dodgy crypto, I wouldn't be holding. But you used an important phrase a minute or two ago, you said top dog and first mover. So when I look at important emerging industries, and I see a company with a large customer base, they may not be profitable yet, but they're doing good things in this world, a world I want to live in. And their stock's down, their stock's been cut in half. What's the reason? Sometimes it's the CEO, like Howard Schultz back in the day with Starbucks, was just occasionally conservative. And the analysts were surprised as under-promised, and then the stock drops 15%, you know, in a week. You told the story about this going on The View. Yeah. The stock ends up down 30%, and that was your last appearance. And then what happened to Starbucks? It went up 30 times the value. We've never been back on The View. And by the way, I'll return at any time. We'd love to close the loop on that story. But yeah, that was 1998 early TV appearance. We picked a stock for the ladies of The View, and then it was Starbucks. That's the punchline, by the way. I shouldn't have given that. But yeah, the stock dropped 30% in just a couple of months. And we went back on the show to update the story. And they booed us good-naturedly. And they're like, oh, well. And we're like, keep holding, though. Keep holding. And then they've never invited us back since. And it's gone up 33 times the value from our first appearance, not even including the 33% drop. So, I mean, that was an iconic moment. I didn't realize it at the time. But as I wrote Rule Breaker Investing, I was just thinking, that's my story. Because that's what most people miss. Most people are following the headlines instead of following real progress. And they're chasing stuff. And if you just look and ask, who are the movers and shakers delivering products and services? Electric cars, robotic surgery, coffee houses, better fajitas. The list goes on. So I'm thinking Striker, Chipotle, Tesla. Yeah, well, actually intuitive surgical. Okay. Yeah, yeah. But yes, you're thinking exactly the coming. I'm using the robot that did my surgery. Ah, very happy to hear that. And when I recall walking into the surgical theater and looking around and saying, oh, this is where the future is. I've just gone 20 years forward because this whole thing is, here's the big robot with all the, like, oh, now I understand. Like the rest of the world, we're living in the past. this technology is as cutting edge as it gets. It's really amazing. I love that. And I'm so glad to hear that for you in successful surgery, which is what we all want, robot or human. But yeah, it turns out there are lots of advantages to robot assisted surgery. Yes. And Intuitive Surgical has really been the pure play small company. Striker is a more bigger diversified company. Anyway, but for each of these, like- I just happen to remember what the little logo on the side, the last thing I saw- That's a good thing to do. They're like, this'll help you relax. And then the next thing I know, I'm in recovery. But the last thing I saw was the Striker logo. Great story. And, you know, so it's funny you mentioned the future and feeling like you're living the future. That's generally where I try to be as I pick my stocks. And just for the fun of it, one of my best stock picks in the last 15 years has been Tesla, which I picked in 2011, still holding. And I bought, I've owned a number of Teslas since. And I was driving around in Tesla in 2013. My license plate in Washington, D.C. is future. No one else thought of it. So I'm watching out for the future in Washington, D.C. And I'm driving around going, I really am inside the future. And I'm surrounded by not just other cars that aren't yet, but a whole industry, gas stations, et cetera, of things. There's not as much maintenance needed. So that's a great iconic example of, for me, whether it's Starbucks back in the day, which was questionable for a lot of people because it looked like a fad. That was the big rap on Starbucks, early 90s. where have coffee houses ever come from in America? There's no background for this. This is such a fact. Paying five bucks for coffee? Are you serious? Right? So AOL was all just chat rooms. So all going to be hype. No one will ever give their credit card over the internet. Tesla electric cars will never work. Intuitive surgical. Why would you have a robot when humans can do it just as well? Dot, dot, dot. The list goes on. Other way around. Why would you have a human when a robot can do it? That is indeed. More, not only just as well, but more consistently. and it doesn't matter if they had a bad night, it's fine the next day. And minimally evasive. And speaking of the next day, you're walking home the next day. That night. As opposed to two days. Oh no, same day. You walk out of the hospital. It's kind of terrifying. Although you're still on a lot of drugs at that point. Yeah. Well, one of my heroes is Clayton Christensen who wrote The Innovator's Dilemma. And he's somebody who helped me understand and think about disruptive innovation. And I've always invested in the innovators. And back to your earlier question, Barry, you know, I can keep holding my Netflix when it loses two-thirds of its value, when I believe in Netflix and I see visible proof every day of how important Amazon back in the day, Netflix, Tesla, the list goes on, the companies we've mentioned. So that helps me hold these companies. If you follow the company as opposed to the zigs and zags on the stock charts or the headlines, you're going to be much more patient, I think, as an investor. And that has been my, that's been a superhero power for me. So walk us through your stock picking process. How does a company first land on your radar? What sort of analysis do you do? When do you decide you're comfortable to put it on your buy list? And are there any non-negotiable checkboxes that you say, nope, that's a knockout, they don't have this? I mean, every one of those questions, I could possibly fill your ears up. So I'll try to be brief. I love the questions. In reverse order, by the way, I'll say any non-negotiables. I don't invest in companies whose fundamental business is to take money from other people. And so you'll never see me recommend a so-called gaming stock. And I think sports betting is a joke. And while I think it always should have been legal, I think it is a sad waste of money for anybody who does the math. And so that would not be on my list. No Motley Fool member has ever received a gaming recommendation from me. And they have been very destructive, primarily to college-age men. Yeah. There's a growing gambling addiction problem, and these companies just, that's their clients. Yep, and I will say, I love sports. I know you do, too. And I'm happy making a bet with friends. But if you really do the math of a 50-50 prospect where the house takes out its 10%, and you just do your expected return and play that forward with all your money, I know where that goes. And you could have had nine to 10 percent annualized returns. There's a huge knuckleheads. There's a huge difference between doing a box for the Super Bowl or something. Yeah. Have fun. And betting on free throws. I mean, it's it's just it has nothing to do with sports. That's just the medium by which they are tickling your adrenaline and dopamine. It's it's so. And yet these have become giant businesses. Yeah, and even something as innovative as prediction markets, which I am fascinated by, are also being turned into quick money and or sometimes questionable who can influence the outcomes of prediction markets. So these are unfortunate things where I think they're fascinating to follow. But if you're serious about your own money and you would like financial freedom one day, you're making a huge mistake if you go there. So back to your question, that's a non-negotiable for me. I don't like businesses that just fundamentally lead people who don't know math to give their money away regularly. regularly. I don't feel great about that if I'm a shareholder. So let me roll you back a little bit. How does a company typically find its way onto your radar? Is it something you're using or something you hear about? Like where do most of these ideas come from? So the ideas come from, first of all, I'm an early adopter. So I've got a closet full of things where I bought the thing early first gen and it's not really working or wasn't relevant anymore. And so, but it also meant I bought Tesla very early on, and I tried online services with my scratchy phone, that sound we can all hear if you're over 40 years old today of logging on to AOL. So I love the new. I'm excited by AI. And that's not an industry, by the way. That is a plate tectonic shift for our society that's going to create many industries, many of which don't even exist yet. Just as we were excited about the internet with Amazon, where my cost basis today is 16 cents, still holding, Uber hadn't even shown up yet. Google hadn't shown up yet. I mean, it will be years before AI companies that are amazing, that are great stocks, show up. So no one should feel anxious that they don't have an AI portfolio yet. But anyway, so I'm an early adopter, and then I'm connected to a community. The Motley Fool community, our forums, discussion boards, meeting people at book signings, the list goes. this conversation right now. You mentioned Stryker. I probably need to look back at that one. I'm curious how it's done. So I'm just always listening. Of course, social media is full of these kinds of opportunities. So intellectual curiosity is the flame that will burn my whole life long and in many of my fellow fools. And I think my host today as well. So I think that if you're curious and you're asking questions about where society is headed and you're specifically looking for products and services that will improve our lives and our kids' lives, you're going to be looking, you're going to be fishing in the right pond. So once something falls on your radar, you have six rule breaker criteria. Walk us through those six. Really, that's the heart of the analysis that you do, right? It is. It's six traits that I'm looking for. And that's the middle of my book. And I didn't start the book that way. And we can talk about that later if you like. But let me just rattle right now through my six traits of rule breaker investing. And by the way, I have used these now into my fourth decade. I didn't just come up with these yesterday. This is exactly what caused me to pick AOL, Amazon, Tesla, NVIDIA, the list goes on. And some of them are so contrary, which is why I think it works. Number one, top dog and first mover in an important emerging industry. We already spoke to that one. We could go deeper. So for today, that might be NVIDIA. It might be Broadcom. It might be ASM lithography. It might be AMD. It could be any of the semiconductors or some of the software companies, Google, Microsoft, whoever. Yeah. And also, by the way, restaurant companies, retail. I mean, in every industry, I'm asking who's the innovator. I want to know who the innovator is. And if you honestly just only focus your stock market attention on the biggest innovator in each industry, some of them are small, emergent. Some of them are big. You're going to do so much better as an investor. So Starbucks, the third place. That was the big driver of them. Chipotle, they came up with a way to assembly line fresh food. Yeah, better quality. The fact that it happens to be Mexican based is almost relevant, irrelevant. You see Cava today doing the same thing with Mediterranean. And I'm sure there are dozens of others coming up. There are. And by the way, not all of these work out as stocks. I certainly have a closet full of bad stock picks as well. We could talk about that later. But that's very important. If you have sort of a venture capital mentality as you look at the public markets which is how I describe myself you need just like a VC you need to be comfortable with losing In other words it you looking for here 100 investments 50 of them aren going to work out 30 will do okay but it the top two or three that make it worthwhile. Yeah. And I truly go into all hundreds saying, I like this company, I believe in it, I hope it works out, but I'm never loading up on one, et cetera. So top dog and first mover in an important emerging industry of my six traits, that's the most important. So, number two, we're looking for a sustainable competitive advantage. A moat, as Buffett likes to say. You bet. And because we're holding stocks for a dead minimum of three years, preferably three decades, sustainable competitive advantage really, really matters. And that takes many forms. We could talk about that. Number three, so the first two are about the company. The third is about the stock. And this is I'm looking for a strong, stellar past price appreciation in the stock. In other words, you're not looking for the cigar stub to use Ben Graham's phrase. You're looking for something with a little momentum and where more and more investors are stepping in. There's a chapter in my book, and it was an eye opener as I wrote it and realized it, where I listed out seven of my best stock picks from Intuitive Surgical to Netflix to Apple to Amazon to Nvidia. and a couple of others. And I noticed, and I only realized this in retrospect, that in the three to nine months leading up to my first pick of them, on average, they had risen 30 to 90%. And a lot of people, I think most people, when they are researching a stock, it goes up 50%, they're like, oh, that's 30. Right. Right. Yeah. And so part of the reason rule breaker investing works is because I'm willing at that point, not just to buy it, but to actually be more excited about it. Because clearly the market is noticing what's happening now. And when companies rise, reflexivity starts to show up, Barry. They start having more resources. They're getting mentioned on Bloomberg Radio. All of a sudden, a lot of good stuff starts coming to them. That strengthens them. That's not a reason to look for another cigar bot and ignore NVIDIA. So that is trait number three, stellar past price appreciation in a world where most people are like, buy low, sell high. I'm looking to the 52-week low list, friends, not the 52-week high. And when I say friends, I mean, that's the average person speaking. I'm looking for the 52-week high. Give us four, five, and six. Sure. So number four, it's all about the people. We're looking for smart backing and excellent management. So it's the human capital. And this is again, in some ways obvious. Yeah. We'd love to have Steve jobs, be our CEO. Yeah. We're glad that Jeff Bezos is our CEO or Warren Buffett. Um, but keep in mind, and this is a really hidden in plain sight, I think profound insight that most people don't see, even though it's hidden in plain sight, there is no number to express the value of the CEO running companies. So we have a whole wall street world that's built on valuation rate ratios, generally off of earnings or cashflow, sometimes off of assets. And they're not including that Elon Musk is the CEO of the company. And by the way, there are a lot of CEOs who are subtracting value from their companies, and there's nothing to express that. And so we have a whole world driven off algorithms that increasingly is computer trading. It's not even humans anymore. And they're not noticing or caring, I think, about trait number four, who the heck's running this thing and who's backing it. That matters deeply to me, especially if I'm holding as I do for three decades. Number five, we're looking for strong consumer brands. I love companies that have raving fans. And it doesn't mean every time that they are a consumer brand, striker drilling, intuitive surgical, these are not consumer brands per se. Although intuitive surgical with its DaVinci surgical robot, you will hear your local on your local radio. If you still listen to it, you'll hear an ad for the hospital bragging in some cases that they have a Da Vinci. So there is some brand recognition there, but Starbucks, Netflix, Amazon, these are all my best stock picks. And I bought them years ago and still hold them today. And they all exhibit that strong consumer appeal. And the final? Probably my favorite, secret sauce. So if you're following us, the first two were about the company, the third was the stock. Then the next two, four and five, the people and the brand are about the company. Number six is about the stock. And it's specifically that the stock is generally considered capital O overvalued by the by the world at large, by Wall Street commentators, by people in Barron's CNBC, never Bloomberg Radio. So a little contrarian perspective. We are specifically wanting people to call out Tesla as ridiculously overpriced. Amazon will never make money. Intuitive Surgical, when I first recommended it over 100 bagger ago, it was at 73 times earnings. There are people, if they even do pay attention to stocks anymore, that say, I would never buy a stock with a price to earnings ratio of 73. The list goes on. So a lot of times when we see stuff, especially with a company that's relatively young, you start to see the company grow into their valuation. NVIDIA is a great example. It was a semi maker, then it was a floating point chip maker for gaming before it did the pivot to full AI because FPUs turns out to be better than CPUs for large language models. And I don't pretend to be a wizard on that. GPUs. Then GPUs, right. That's right. I don't know what F is, floating point unit, but GPUs, that's exactly right. But two years ago, NVIDIA was like a 75PE. Now it's like a 40PE and falling. can't some of these overpriced companies just grow? Apple is another example. For the longest time, people looked at Apple in the 2000s when that newfangled iPod came out and said, oh, they don't have any profits whatsoever. Why would I want to own Apple in 04 or 05? So I think that, first of all, let's be clear. There are things that are overvalued that you and I would not want to buy. But if you're following our conversation, if you're buying a top dog and first mover in an important emerging industry with a sustainable competitive advantage, stellar past price appreciation, excellent management, smart backing, strong consumer appeal, it has all five of those things in place. And then some guy on CNBC is telling you it's blatantly overvalued. It's crazy. No one should ever buy that stock. Amazon.bomb cover of Barron's. that is the special sauce that causes me to say, bam, now we're buying. Well, the Amazon.bomb was, I want to say, January 2000. And we did see a giant collapse. What was the queues fell about 82% peak to trough. That's a pretty big. I experienced it all the way. In fact, our cost basis, 16 cents, it had gone up. It was a 30 bagger. And again, when I'm picking stocks, this is not for my this is not for my own portfolio. This is not this is lots of people following The Motley Fool. These are people subscribing to us. So when I pick a good stock, it feels really good. It's not about me. When I pick a bad stock, it doesn't feel very good. It's not about me. Or a big a good stock that hits a buzzsaw when a market gets shellacked. Exactly. You could own anything during the financial crisis. Everything still got cut in half, more or less. It was quite a quite a crash. You're right, Barry. And the truth is that if you follow any of these companies, I've littered our conversation with 15 to 20 company names that are really 15 to 20 generationally great stocks. Every single one of these stocks has lost 50% or more of its value more than once, which means that if you'd followed Motley Fool advice, depending on your timing, you might love me or not like me. You might be like, yeah, I got in there, but got cut in half and I got out. We're holding all the way through. We're buying and we're holding. So I have watched Amazon go, this is kind of pre-split. It was at three when we first recommended it, went to 95 down to seven during that 2001 era. I recall, for sure. Incredible. More splits soon after. Yeah, yeah. It's now split down to 16 cents, which by the way is also my cost basis on NVIDIA. Thanks to the magic of stock splits, they both got me at my 16 cent cost basis still holding. So, but to do that, like NVIDIA just three years ago lost half its value in one year. This is one of the largest companies. It was like four months it got cut in half. So this is just going to happen. 2022, it got shellacked. This is not going to happen for companies that are not dynamic. This is not going to happen so much for cyclicals. I mean, there will be some cyclicality. These are rule breakers. These are stocks that, by most popular view, were blatantly overvalued. You should never have bought Amazon, all the way through, et cetera. And so they're going to be more volatile. Netflix was going to get put out of business by Walmart. I don't know if you remember this, but back in the day of the red envelopes, All of a sudden, Walmart said, hey, you can just drop it off at your Walmart, your DVD. You don't have to mail it back to Netflix. That was going to – Netflix was supposedly toast then. So AOL was going to be toast. It eventually was kind of toast, although it sold out. The merger was the problem. Yeah, but I've watched – it's such a key indicator, trait number six. When people say it's toast, that not for every stock, but for the rule breakers, that is magic. It has been for me. So I want to ask you about the first stock you purchased where you said, oh, this checks all six boxes. This is my rule breaker. It was AOL. Yeah. Definitely AOL. 1990 when? Four, five, six? We literally picked it the day we launched on AOL. 1994, August 4th, 1994. And from that point, I watched AOL. And again, we were – I mean, we were always fully transparent. People are like, wait, you guys are on AOL. Is there a conflict of interest? You're recommending AOL stock? No, we know what it is because we're on it. We see what this can do for investors and what the future of the company is. It's pretty self-evident. You're right. And yet not everybody would have felt that way back then. But it was – I mean we had no inside view of AOL. We were separately domiciled. But we watched AOL grow. And it was such an object business lesson as an entrepreneur for me. But as a stock picker, I was watching it get called out as the most overvalued stock repeatedly by august bodies like the world economic. It's not the world economic forum today, but basically all the economists in the world would get together every summer. And two summers in a row, it was like 96 and 97, they voted the most overvalued stock. And it was the stock that we had backed. And our members were like, guys, they're calling it the most overvalued again. We're like, this is an amazing company. It went up 150 times in value. And I learned so much from that experience. And as we mentioned, it didn't end there. It started to drop back and fell back and eventually just kind of got taken over and it merged with Time Warner. When people stop calling stuff over valued and every analyst on the street has a strong buy on it, that's usually when you want to be on the other side of that, right? That can be true. I will also say, though. Not always, but... No, no, no. I definitely appreciate the sentiment and I smile at that askance with you as well. I will say that we typically just hold well longer than whatever analysts are thinking or saying. We don't really pay attention. So you're not quarter to quarter? Is that what you say? Yeah, no. I mean, we love following business. By the way, one thing you asked me to think a little bit about is, is there anything that people should be talking more about, especially if something that troubles me? And a quick example would be, I really think we should have companies reporting every three months their financial results. And you may know there's a movement afoot to allow some companies just to report twice a year. I think that's a really bad, bad decision. And I hope we don't do that. I hope companies will self-report and choose to be transparent on a regular basis with their results. I'm going to take it a step further than you and say, and I wrote this before AI was ubiquitous. If you want to get rid of quarterly reporting instead of going once or twice a year, make it real time and 24-7. Really cool. Because you could update that. You could set up technology to update. Here's where we are. Here's how close we are. Here's our range. You can Monte Carlo, what we're likely to do each quarter. And so the problem is the focus on quarterly. If it was all the time, like you can look at your portfolio or your checking account 24 seven. You shouldn't, but you can. And it's made, I remember in the 90s or in the 2000s, we would be printing stuff out, folding them up, sticking them in envelopes, sending them out. And the quarterly report was when I was a junior having to do that crap in the mailroom. It was a big deal, the quarterly report. Now, nobody really thinks about your portfolio quarterly because you can access it whenever you want. It's kind of – I think it's absolutely heading in the wrong direction. Yeah, well, so more transparency is the theme here. But so for me, I think a lot about what is going to be in the best interest of armchair investors like me because, Barry, we are – we're individual investors. And so I'm there representing anybody who is in an investment club or was given a portfolio of stocks and they're trying to figure out how to make better decisions. And I think it's so rewarding to pick stocks in a world where it's increasingly called out as crazy talk to actually buy an individual stock. So we talked earlier about stocks like Apple and Nvidia and Netflix and Amazon that have all gotten cut in half repeatedly. how do you tell the difference between a stock that's just going through sort of regular volatility versus GE got sliced in half? We look at I'm not even talking about the Lehman Brothers or the WorldComps of the world. I mean, just stocks that their best days are behind them. How do you know the difference between just a regular stumble and beginning of the end? Well, first of all, So you can't know. I mean, it would be too headstrong of me to say, here's what you do. Here's how you know. So for me, I just like to keep my stocks in place and recognize some of them are going to trip. I love horse racing metaphors and not every horse is going to win the race. Not everyone's going to make the race. Some get out to a great start and don't finish well. And I can't always know. But by holding, I allow the ones that clearly will win to win so grandly. When you make more than 1,000 times your money on Amazon or NVIDIA, it doesn't actually matter that you had some dogs in your portfolio. So you can be wrong, and that's okay because being right is so much more valuable. I will also add, though, to answer your question a little bit more directly, usually the companies that fall and don't come back are being disrupted. Earlier I mentioned Clayton Christensen, innovator's dilemma. You can usually kind of see it, that the world is changing. The company might still be best in class, and it may have a famous CEO that everybody loves, but all of a sudden there's this upstart. It might be a whole industry of new players. And when I see that in a company going down, I may not want to hold onto that stock. But if Netflix, which has been ascendant now for 20 plus years every time, if it's down two-thirds of its value, which has happened more than once, including Quickster, I keep holding that one, So the question is, does this company remain a rule breaker? Is it a top dog and still first mover in an emergent industry? And when it is, I'm going to keep holding that stock. Coming up, we continue our conversation with David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, discussing his book Rule Breaker Investing, How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest is David Gardner. He's the co-founder of The Motley Fool and the author of the book Rule Breaker Investing, how to pick the best stocks of the future and build lasting wealth. When did you realize that Blockbuster was being disrupted by Netflix and P.S. at one point in the 2000s, Netflix tried to sell themselves to Blockbuster for $50 million and they turned them down? Yeah, it's like Yahoo could have bought Google. You love those stories. But, you know, I would say that I never really thought too much about Blockbuster as a stock. I remember we had the CEO on our Motley Fool radio show. And at that time, Blockbuster maybe had 25 million customers and Netflix had 1 million. And he was like, you know, we're watching what they're doing. It's neat what they're doing. I don't think it's not a big scaling thing. You know, it's kind of a niche thing. Do you want to mail your DVD back and forth? And that, I think it was John Anciaco, but I mean, good man, probably, but wrong. He was wrong. And so it wasn't so much that I ever cared or loved Blockbuster. I just was watching this rule breaker emerge and it was doing crazy stuff like you can't just drop it off two blocks away at your blockbuster. You have to mail it and keep a queue and send it back and forth. But the queue is half the value of it. Here's all the movies I want to see, which, by the way, every time I roll into Blockbuster, it's rented. And I'm not even talking about a Saturday night like on a Wednesday. What do you mean you don't have this? Remember those days? So instead, just working through the queue, Netflix was like, so the initial question is, wait, you want me to mail DVDs back and forth to, oh, I see how this works, but this will never replace Blockbuster to no late fees? Oh my God why do I want to give anything to Blockbuster It it was super disruptive before online streaming and as a as a master of business administration actually i don have an mba but i know i'm a master business god beautiful uh but as students of the game as people who love business what actually was happening was netflix was changing the business model of the consumer proposition in the whole industry right because as you just pointed out blockbuster was a transactional late fee driven. And all of a sudden you're subscribing to Netflix. You're now in a subscription relationship, very disruptive. There was no, there was really no precedent for that in that industry. So it looked like this crazy thing and it was easy to mock. Why wouldn't you just drop it off a block away, mail it to these people. And yet it fundamentally changed the business model forever. And then we're not even talking about streaming, which we don't have to, but they keep innovating. And the, you know, the interesting thing is you meant we were mentioning late fees. You know, if you get a late fee from your bank or a bounce check fee or something, it's part of your statement. It's not the same thing as showing up and having someone say, give me another seven bucks. What do you mean? Give you another seven bucks. It was just like so annoying and alienating. Like, I think it's a good rule of thumb. Try not to really piss off all of your clients, all of your customers. Not a good long-term strategy. I have a small confession to make. That Wall Street summer, I referenced when I went to Salomon Brothers, we did, we had a video out from Blockbuster, and we kept it the whole summer. We just kept not returning. We were irresponsible college sophomores. And at the end of the summer, I'm not even sure, like we had racked up a triple-digit late fee. Right, and the video was $20 to buy. Exactly. Just go buy another one. So we had a friend of ours who was British go in with a British accent and explain to Blockbuster that we were renting his place. He doesn't really know about it, but here's this video that he found. And so we kind of got out of that one. It wasn't totally above board. So I'm happy now to admit that this is helpful for me. But yeah, that was kind of the state of things. The anxiety, the angst around returning a video late and not feeling great, you know, from a consumer branding standpoint. So yeah, Netflix, love them. So let's talk about Rule Breakers today. They're going to be in different spaces, biotech, defense tech, obviously AI. And a lot of these areas don't have a whole lot of earnings and they do have a massive cash burn. So how do you think about valuation in this space? Does it not matter if the growth is there? Define the modern era of rule breakers. So I would always be, first of all, looking at industries. And you just did that some. And, you know, even something like biotech, which you said. Right. That's, as you know, Barry, that's multiple industries. I mean, there's so the Internet was never an industry. AI is not in this industry. So we're talking about, again, huge technologies. I was saying earlier, plate tectonic shifts for our society. And you're looking for the beneficiaries. You're looking for the visionaries who are starting something that might sound a little crazy, like mailing DVDs back and forth or an electric car. And you want to get invested in those. assuming that you agree with the vision, you think the person is great. You and I were referencing investment research circa 1980s, 90s, an annual report being mailed to you through the mail. That was about all you had. There weren't online forums or anything. These days, you can watch long form YouTube videos, watching any CEO be interviewed and learn a lot about their character, which carries, which matters deeply to me. I'm a big character person. So I want to feel really good about the people I'm invested in across my portfolio. So we're looking at important emerging industries and we're not trying to force things that don't exist yet. There's no ultra AI stock. I mean, NVIDIA has been an amazing hold for us now, 21 years and counting. It was not an AI company when I first recommended it, but we're still holding. But, you know, these things are going to emerge. I already mentioned earlier, things like Uber, Airbnb didn't show up till more than 10 years after the internet had really started to penetrate american um life and so for me it's just keeping our eyes out whether it's genomics or some uh duolingo a video game on your on your phone where you're learning languages uh again all of these are from different industries but they are the innovator and so yeah we're staying focused in the modern day go forward on what are the companies that are going to add value to our world in a way that is consumer noticeable. And when they're called overvalued, that's even better for us as rule breaker investors. So let me share some criticism that you share with Warren Buffett, of all people. When I'm doing my research for this conversation, one of the things that came up was you have this really good long term track record. But if you've been involved in more recently in the past 10, 15 years. Well, all those Amazons, Netflix, Apples from the early 2000s are driving most of your gains. From what I'm hearing from you, you're implying that doesn't really hold true. If you look at the Teslas and the Ubers and the more modern positions, respond to that criticism. Hey, if you weren't in it, no three, you really didn't get any benefit. Well, first of all, I would say that invest every day of your life, every two weeks, If you can, young people, the first thing you should do is open an account if you haven't already. Save. And with every paycheck, try to put up to 10% away and put it in. If you want, you can index. But I think you should be buying stocks as well alongside that and learning as you go. And anybody who's playing the long game in the markets, as they start to hit their 30th or 40th year, which is where I am, it's always going to look like all your big winners were the first 10 years. because, of course, they are, I mean, literally Amazon is now more than a thousand times the value for me. I'm not trying to be Amazon guy. You don't walk me, you don't see me walking around going, I'm the guy who had Amazon, 16 cents. I also have that for Nvidia. But just by the nature of compounding, Barry, which I think you understand as well as anyone, it's always going to look like all your big winners were early. But, you know, whether it's Tesla picked in, you know, 2011 or Shopify in 2016. These are all rule breakers. They're not going to hit right away. Shopify has been up and down, but mostly up. It's a great example of a rule breaker circa the last 10 years, not the first 20 years. But I never want people to forget we were right there at the beginning with AOL and we were picking AOL and Amazon and Starbucks, by the way, and the list goes on. So I would just say compounding numbers are always going to make it look like all of your big winners are early in your career. So before I get to my favorite questions is just one question I'm excited to ask you when you're looking ahead, what trends, what businesses, what ideas generally get your curiosity going? Well, this is, this is an, an, in the same way that seven up was the on Cola back in the day. This is an on answer because by the way, you're talking to a generation that has no idea what that means. But you, you and I do though. And we got, some of our peeps listening, right? Yeah. All right. Sure. So yeah, I should have just answered the question. So I, I look for companies that are conscious capitalism kinds of companies. I want companies that first of all, are doing good in this world by my perception. A lot of people think it's a trade-off in life. They think capitalism is greedy and evil and you know, you're abusing workers and it's all about maximizing shareholder value. I completely disagree in many cases. Sure, that exists in the world, but that's not the story of Amazon. Amazon is a big, beautiful, amazing enterprise that helps save lives during COVID. And yes, they'll get criticized for some of the things that they've done. And Jeff Bezos is considered an egomaniac by some, but net net, please. Amazon is a huge value contributor. So that's an example of a company, Reed Hastings and what he created at Netflix. I mean, there's a whole 80 page slide. a lot of entrepreneurs have seen about how Netflix does culture, that they just kind of share it out. And you could see why they're so successful because how they treat their employees and the standards that they hold, where doing good actually leads to doing well. And again, many people think that's a trade-off or they don't actually think that's real. So I specifically want you and I to make our portfolios reflect our best vision for our future. And so every company that I already like invade against the entire industry, the gaming industry earlier. Sorry, gamers. But by the way, I'm a gamer, but I play video games and board games, not 50-50 and the house takes 10% game. But I would say that you're looking for the people who are doing good or within their industry, they're admired for how they treat their employees, how they win for their customers, and how their partners and suppliers are proud to be associated with them. And guess what? Usually the stocks end up outperforming in a world where many people think it's too risky to even buy individual stocks. So the more there's big, dumb money sloshing around out there, Barry, the easier it is for stock pickers like me, like you, if you like, like anybody listening to us, to actually pick and discern the good companies, hold them longer than Wall Street, longer than the headlines than CNBC will be talking about, and do really well. So let's jump to our speed round, our favorite questions in the last five minutes we have, starting with who are your early mentors who helped shape your career so my father um who at the age of 18 said here you go david i've been investing this for you from birth this is all you're ever getting from me really i've taught you out of value line that big black tome uh the numbers of investing and i know you love sports statistics another of my mentors bill james the awesome baseball statistician actually he was a journalist um but james who influenced Moneyball, of course, of course. So who I've met before. But, you know, these these are early people who convinced me of the fun of life and that it could be counted with numbers. I'm an English major, but there's a there's a big left brain going on with me with loving, loving numbers and baseball stats and college basketball stats. Ken Palm, by the way, Ken Palm, that is a twenty five dollar subscription any sports fan would enjoy. So Peter Lynch, I'm thinking about Clayton Christensen, I mentioned. These are all people who really have helped me think about what wins. Look, you mentioned Moneyball. Let's talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading right now? Yeah, so first of all, I'm reading right now The Score by Tin Nguyen. And The Score is an amazing book. I think the subtitle is something like how to stop playing somebody else's game. And Nguyen is a games philosopher. So people are philosophers about ideas or art. He specifically looks at games. And his book talks about how social media, for example, is sort of a game. Like as soon as you start imposing likes and follows, you're playing somebody else's game. You're playing Twitter X's game or Facebook's game. when you have to accept GPA as a measure of how well you've done in college and it becomes big and bureaucratic and everybody's using that, you are unfortunately playing somebody else's game. Sometimes you have to do it, but being self-aware of what is motivating you, it is an amazing book. And I highly recommend this score. I've had T. Nguyen on my podcast a couple of times. Love the guy. I mean, we just can geek out about board games, but that's what I'm reading right now. But, you know, when I think about books, I mean, it's a motley array of books. No pun intended. Barry, indeed. I mean, The Inevitable by Kevin Kelly is a great book about the future. I'm a big Kevin Kelly fan. He founded Wired Magazine. He's a genius. I enjoy Arthur Brooks' columns in The Atlantic. He writes about happiness. I really loved his book, Love Your Enemies, talking about the divisiveness in our country and how to solve that. And I would love to see more of that. But Steven Pinker and all of his data accumulation around technologies, trends in our culture, it seems always to be smart to be a pessimist. You always sound smarter when you talk something down. And yet we're pinch yourself that you're living today. I know we have a lot of problems. We have many, many better problems. There were many worse problems in over human history. Steven Pinker reminds us of that. Right. Our world in data. Yeah. Hans Rosling. Same thing. There you go, Barry. Exactly. And I was rudely using my phone to get the exact name of a book that I'm going to recommend to you because it's sitting on my desk. And the author is Danny Funt. Everybody loses. And it's all about the tumultuous rise of American sports gambling and why it's such a glad he wrote that. So it's literally waiting for me to. It's next up. This this giant. I love thing. But it's writing your writing your M.O. Yep. I mentioned earlier some streaming time. We've been talking about Netflix and Amazon. So tell us what are your favorite Netflix or Amazon Prime videos or what podcasts are you listening to? Thank you. I you know, I really enjoyed Apple's Pluribus. If you saw that. It's also in my queue. Yeah. Totally. Totally recommend that. That's just season one. I mean, we have a lot of British comedy fans in my family. So shows like Mitchell and Webb, the comedy duo, their clips are all over YouTube. But IT Crowd, hilarious show. Streaming, totally recommend that. Not as funny, but very British. All creatures great and small. Just an absolutely delightful. Very interesting. The vet, early 20th century. Exactly. Just such a slow horses. Great, great show. Apple. And or, sure, I love sci-fi. I love all the Marvel stuff. By the way, Marvel's been an amazing stock for me. It got bought out by Disney. So these days we have a very low cost basis you couldn't have gotten because when Disney bought Marvel at a huge premium, we Marvel shareholders, we happy few buying a rule breaker that looked overvalued. Right. We've ended up doing really well. So, but, you know, and are obviously Star Wars and I love brands and I love family entertainment. So those are some that come to mind. I just flew back from San Francisco and on the flight I rewatched Deadpool and Wolverine. And it's like, I forgot how much fun that movie was. Yeah. Yeah, really, really a blast. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college graduate interested in a career in investing? Well, I would first of all say that you should pick individual stocks and you should pay attention to the game and you should love it. You should have a lot of fun. I mean, I love sports. We've talked. I know you do, too. We've talked about that a lot. People follow their sports teams day to day. I follow the markets day to day. And the difference is you actually can make serious money by learning and following the market in a way you never will as a sports fan. And I love sports. And, you know, sports can be a little bit more fun day to day. But the markets are open every day. your NFL team only plays on Sundays and starting to figure out what wins in the marketplace. And why is that app on your phone, not somebody else's app? What's in your fridge? What are you wearing? Noticing the things that go on around you. This is going to lead to riches, but it's also going to open your mind to awareness of what's happening in our society. And I do think that people who are taught to index and not really care are kind of walking blind in society when they could be poking their feelers up, seeing what's happening in genomics or robotic surgery or whatever. And I'm an English major and I care about these things and profiting as a consequence. I would also say that any young person start investing yesterday. And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today? Might've been useful back in 1993 when you were first getting started. I would just say that when I first got started in 1993, investing was more of a math exercise for me. I was taught by a dad. I mentioned value line, lots of ratios that we know. I never learned financial statements until I bought how to read a financial statement the year after I graduated college thinking, you know, I kind of missed that. I never really did that. And so I was very numerically driven. I think what I've realized is that using your right brain in a world where many people are just using their left brain is where the real values added. My favorite chapter in my Rule Breaker Investing book points out that most of the things that win in business are not actually on the financial statements. We've already talked about a few of them. Who's running the company? That is incredibly important. How about the brand value of a company? Most of those are never expressed anywhere in the financial statements. The culture of the company. Can it innovate? Those four things are the bedrocks. As an entrepreneur, I know. I see it in my own company. When we fail and when we succeed, none of those is being successful. captured in the financial statements and we're living in a left brain driven algorithmic world. And so I think here now I see and I only think longer term than I ever did before when I was 30 years ago. I think longer term today at the age of 59 than 29. And I use my right brain. David, thank you so much for being so generous with your time. This has been absolutely fascinating. We have been speaking with David Gardner. He is one of the co-founders of The Motley Fool and author of the book, let's see if I can spit this out, Rule Breaker Investing, How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth. If you enjoyed this conversation, well, check out any of the 627 we've done over the past dozen years. You can find those at YouTube, Spotify, Apple, Bloomberg, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. I would be remiss if I didn't thank the crack team that helps these conversations come together each week. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Anna Luke is my podcast producer. I'm Barry Ritholtz. You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.