joining me now is one of the top financial experts in america he is all over the media and the reason is because he is usually right welcome to the show ken mahoney for mahoney asset management thank you for that great introduction we hope to be right more than we're wrong and of course it's always hard to go by the crystal ball but there's definitely trends and historical things you apply to help you kind of figure out where the hockey puck may be going. Yes, let's dive right into it. Is there a bubble in the market right now? How do you see it? I don't think so. You know, Nadja, there's a lot of bubbleologists out there that keep talking about bubbles, bubbles, bubbles. You know, we're in this great growth spurt, something we haven't seen in a generation since the 1990s when everybody went out and got computers. There's this AI, data centers, cloud, robotics, I mean, cars that run on electric. It's all coming at us. And there's a lot of winners out there that are stacking on earnings and earnings. And look, when you have strong earnings, a lot of good things happen for companies. They buy back stock. They raise your dividend. They bring on new talent, research development. So we're seeing such a huge amount of spend, a whole bunch of money going to innovation. Innovation drives investment. Investment drives innovation. And that's where we are. We are not in the bubble yet. How does the market compare, let's say, to the 90s? So I think it's much better. So I remember in the 1990s, we would get our first computer. My first computer was Gateway. It came in a cow box. I don't know if you remember that. And so that was business to consumer. So I bought my printer. I bought my computer for $1,500. of dollars. But a lot of those companies back in the 1990s got evaluated for clicks, for eyeballs, not for revenue. What we're seeing here now is business to business, not business to consumer like we were in the 90s, business to business, $10 billion contract, a $30 billion contract, and $50 billion, so get it? So this is not like the 1990s valuating companies on how many hits they got for the month. These are valuating companies right now on the earnings they have, projected earnings and accretive deals that they're getting on top of all that. So it's a totally different time and place. The market is anticipating the reopening of the government. Your thoughts on that? Yes. Finally, you know, I think in the future, all members of Congress should not get paid along with air. If you're going to say air traffic controllers can't get paid, the members of Congress. I don't want to rant about that. But look, it's just about time because pretty soon the holidays are coming up. Thanksgiving is the biggest travel week of the year. And it couldn't happen quick enough. Again, now things are still kind of off a little bit. We're not getting all the data from the government. I'm not sure the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates. If they have enough data to make that decision. There's going to be some bottlenecks. There's some collateral damage that happened with this. But we'll get through it. It was really uncalled for. And most investors are not sided with one party. they're really dismayed by both sides on this particular issue. How are you generally guiding your clients through times like that? I mean, you need to be prepared always for the unforeseen. Are your clients the one I'm calling you in panic mode? How are you navigating through it? Yeah, good question. Look, there's a lot of emotion that comes in investing. It's not just numbers and logic. But again, I've been doing this 36 years. A lot of our clients have been with us a long time. They know the markets have cycles and we prepare for it. We can make volatility our friend or we can make volatility our foe. And I don't have time to go through all this. We don't have time to go through all the strategy. But when the market goes up parabolic like it did this past summer, you take some chips off the table because, you know, eventually that escalator ride up results in elevator going down at some point. And so when the elevator goes down if you have money on the sideline that you park because of some earlier gains you can then participate You can then go out and buy So again you should never be 100 percent in the market market There no flexibility in the market And again we know we go through cycles and prepare for it And again, like I said, make volatile your friend, not your foe. You were one of the first I listened to with regards to your companies that you liked. I remember NVIDIA was one of them. So what companies do you like right now that maybe is not on everybody's radar? Right. So NVIDIA, Microsoft, again, Monopoly board game, Nadja, we call that boardwalk and park place. Those are the two you really want to own in this AI. They're the pixtion shovels. And we caught those pretty early, thank God. Now, I think in 2026, 25, no doubt, was AI and data spend and all the things that are happening and so much money being thrown in technology. I think 2026 is going to take a leap forward and say, wait, what are those companies that spent all those tens of billions of dollars to bring down expenses, to raise their revenue? So we're going to try to find companies, even like Walmart. I know that's boring, especially I'm a growth manager that likes to be in that left lane, the fast lane. So why Walmart? You know, the new technology they have is going to help out logistics, inventory. I mean, for a massive company like Walmart, a 1% change moves to Neil. So we're going to find more companies in 2026 that made that investment, 24 and 25, that are now going to start seeing results. Walmart is just one example of a company that can really thrive by having this data. Is that also thanks to their drone deliveries? I'm not sure about that yet. I think it's kind of cute. I don't know whether it's going to help. By the way, drone deliveries, I think, really helps when we have these awful hurricanes or awful earthquakes and get medical supplies. I think it's a great use of that. I don't think the drone business is going to be that big of a business. I could be wrong. But I think we're going to find those companies who made that investment, start getting return on that investment, and that should be in 2026 and beyond. Let's talk a little bit about the current administration. Trump is promoting himself always as the big pro-business president and that's also how he's perceived by many and how do you feel about the administration helping business? Right, in a big, big way. First off, deregulation. I felt the last administration had too many hoops, too many boxes to check. Most companies have spent a lot of money on legal and trying to make sure they're doing the plot of the day. So we've had pro-business presidents throughout time Quite a few of them for that matter This president is unlike any other He's actually going to countries Cutting deals for our U.S. companies And remember, capital is going to go Where it's treated the best I just came back from Europe And I can tell you with 50% tax rates VAT taxes from 10 to 20% All kinds of red tape It's not investable And now you're starting to see this pendulum swing that U.S. is welcoming. Again, if capital is going to go where it's best treated, it's going to be best treated here in the U.S. And we're finding these deals. Again, look, he's making volatility great again. Let's understand, this is not an easy president. The press conferences always gives her a curveball. Fighting with China over trade has hurt companies like NVIDIA and O-chip makers. But make no mistake, I've never seen this in 36 years, a president going out to different countries to bring back deals for U.S. companies. So again, I think that you think about it, U.S., we innovate. China, they duplicate. They take money. And unfortunately, Europe lately, and what they do, they legislate. They put too many handcuffs on. So I feel that that's why we're seeing so much money flow into the United States because of the way it's treated. Capital is treated very kind here in the States. Yeah, I mean, he's going to the countries. He is presenting deals. He is bringing home deals and even a crown. Is he the king of business? Is he the king of business? Yes I mean look he got great negotiation skills It just amazing that look the president is telling the administration where not to invest and where to invest Where not to invest, at the moment, pharmaceutical companies, right? He's come in and trying to find ways to lower prices, which is good, but it's going to hurt their earnings. Food companies, they had a target on their back, as you know, for many, many years with, God knows, red dye, blue dyes. So basically, those areas, I would not want to invest into. The administration made it clear that they have a target in the back. He wants to win the AI race. So people should listen very closely because political cycles, economic cycles, market cycles happen. In this political cycle, you're finding that this U.S., one of the major goals is to win the AI war pretty much over China. And so that those companies are going to benefit from less regulation. They're going to benefit from investment from foreign companies and countries. So this is why we're seeing this division. And for those who are trying to bet against it and sticking for pharmaceutical companies, you're going to be like in quicksand and you're going to lose an opportunity cost. Yes, they're left lane with AI, definitely bumpier for sure. But that's where you want to go. You want to go to the administration. It's putting emphasis on investment. And that's clearly the AI race that he still wants to win. We talk about AI. There's the big discussion about AI with the right intent, because if we don't make AI care about us, it may forget that we matter as human beings. Now, it seems like in America, there are many dynamics that are about AI for good. And the Global AI Council is also very much on the forefront on that. But does China care about AI for good? China doesn't care about anything, intellectual property. They've been ripping us off for decades I still remember years ago Microsoft 95, I remember Windows 95 To get that disc, you know, factories In China or places in China would actually take that Disc and duplicate it and not give Microsoft money I mean, so this has been going for a long time You know, the way that Trump is Handling Xi and China I think is very interesting, the old saying Keep your friends close, keep your enemies Closer, that's what we're doing Here, so we'll never Be able to placate China They're still out for themselves They're still never Shake hands with them And you don't know whether the deal is going to go through or not Trump knows that But we can't poke it too much where we hurt the US But at the end of the day, no doubt China is not a friend And if you think about that for a second That Trump knows Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer And that's why they still have discussions But it's not going to go too far In our opinion Because China is always going to be there and they don't care about intellectual property. They don't care about ripping off a company or an individual that has the patent. So, Uval, for you, definitely, it is a positive 2026. And you would say, go in, go into the market, invest. It's an investor-friendly environment right now. It sure is. You know, one thing we have to understand, too, the big picture is the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. and they may be cutting rates December 9th, December 10th. But that means there's less competition for stocks. So let's say interest rates are 10%. Why would you want to be in a stock market? But if rates are coming down, we'll just say multiples expand. What does that mean? Prices generally go up in an environment in which interest rates are coming down. So as we discussed AI and technology and this administration is doing, favoring another tailwind you can add for investors, there's definitely these Federal Reserve rate cuts, which probably last in through 2026. So, hey, I think we have a lot of tailwinds. Markets are bumpy, nothing goes straight up. There'll be some nasty corrections, especially around AI because it goes way, way up and then it comes down. But again you can invest outside of AI find those companies that are incorporating AI as we mentioned before but also understand the Federal Reserve is cutting rates And that usually what they call a risk environment Last but not least digital assets Where do you stand on crypto I'm not a big fan. I feel like, again, first of all, Bitcoin could go to a million and I'll probably be wrong. But again, I will see it as a currency is when I can go to Best Buy or I can go to Barnes & Noble, my two favorite stores, and take my wallet out and pay for it. Can't do that yet. And then we started breaking down, say, a stock like Microsoft, that game in Xbox, Microsoft, Teams, Windows, everything, over a billion licenses out there. I like businesses like that. I can understand the cash flow. Sometimes people tell me the reason why you want to be in Bitcoin is you can transfer money. Well, I can do that with Zelle. I can do that with PayPal. oh, so the real reason why I buy Bitcoin is hope that someone's going to buy it at a higher price than what I pay for. So you kind of lose me there. Now, there's a whole bunch of coins. Don't want to get to a whole rant where I feel they're just a modern-day pyramid scheme, that there's no real basis behind it. Yes, I get a lot of hate mail on my Twitter when I say these type of things, but I'd rather go with companies that have this great revenue, have this great tailwind because of the FedExNurve's cutting rates and administration's pro-business and all these companies are lining up because they need all this equipment. I'd rather be there than in something that feels so manipulative, especially the smaller coins, which I believe are just pyramid schemes. With Bitcoin, the proponents argue, at least we know exactly how many exist. Factor in that many people also lose their passwords, so the supply is shrinking, the demand probably increasing. So just not our cup of tea. again, we work with clients that are near retirement. If someone puts 3% or 5% of the portfolio in crypto, I wouldn't have a big problem with that. But it's usually most investors, all or none, right? Especially the younger generation, the Gen Z, you know, where they have like 80% in cryptos and maybe 20% in Apple stock. So again, if someone say, hey, the main argument, hey, I had a 5% of portfolio, fine. That's not going to have you start over in life and savings again. But remember, most investors do things in big chunks. So that's what I call some people about. So a 5% allocation, no big deal. An 80% allocation in crypto, big problem, I think. Sounds plausible. I cannot wait to have you back next time with your certain because you two have a fantastic show going on, Generation X and Generation Z. Connor and you, your fantastic team. I think you're the only father-son team that are talking money. That's what I'm here about. Yeah. And we enjoy. It's almost like listening to us During the day, the market closes, we go over different things. And also, we try to capture that, you know, our interaction. And again, you're right, the different generations. Again, Conor's generation, Gen Z, yeah, they probably have more than half the money in cryptos, different coins and so forth. My generation X on the cusp of baby boomers, you know, we like things are more tangible, things that we understand. I would hate to know that I have these cryptos and I can't get to my wallet and I lost that money, which can happen. we're a little bit, but it's nice to have different opinions and that's why I think our shows are so popular, Connor and I, Connor Mahoney Ken Mahoney are so popular in these shows because he's living in the Gen Z, I'm living in Gen X and there's different answers for the different, you know, for the different segments. With different parts in our lives, different perspectives and different priorities. I think it's always fantastic to hear Yeah, I learn from him, he learns from me and vice versa, yeah. Compliments each other very well. Fantastic talking to you, Ken, and join us again soon. Great question. Yes, thank you. With Conor together, can't wait. And I will keep following your advice. Thank you so much for joining us today and join us again next time.
