The Herd with Colin Cowherd

FantasyPros - 4 Fantasy Football DRAFT VALUES Experts Love to Target | Players Who Will Outperform Their Rankings (Ep. 2024)

20 min
May 16, 202615 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Fantasy Pros experts discuss four undervalued fantasy football players heading into the 2026 draft season. The panel identifies Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, Parker Washington, and Caleb Douglas as players with strong metrics and opportunity who are ranked lower than their production and situation warrant.

Insights
  • Players who finally deliver on their potential after injury recovery face skepticism from the fantasy community despite improved circumstances and proven production
  • Target share and route participation metrics are more predictive than narrative-driven rankings when evaluating wide receiver value
  • Rookie wide receivers in crowded receiving rooms can offer value if they have clear inside track to starting role, even with uncertainty around established players
  • Situational improvements (Romeo Doubs departure, Michael Pittman trade) significantly enhance opportunity for complementary receivers but are slow to be reflected in consensus rankings
  • Late-season performance stretches (weeks 16-19) reveal true usage patterns and leverage opportunities that should inform full-season projections
Trends
Consensus rankings lag behind actual on-field performance and opportunity changes by several weeks into draft seasonWide receiver depth in 2026 draft class creates value opportunities in mid-to-late rounds for players with clear role definitionInjury recovery narratives create psychological bias against players returning to form after proving health and productivityTarget share concentration in passing attacks is becoming more predictive than historical team offensive philosophyRookie wide receiver evaluation increasingly dependent on offensive system fit and quarterback tendencies rather than prospect pedigree aloneFantasy community overweights recent draft capital and prospect rankings over actual NFL usage and performance dataLate-season sample sizes (4-game stretches) are gaining credibility as predictive tools for playoff and following-season performanceSlot receiver and field-stretcher role specialization is creating clearer tier separation in wide receiver rankings
Companies
FantasyPros
Hosts the episode and provides consensus rankings, ECR data, and draft simulation tools for fantasy football analysis
The Athletic
Jake Seely is employed by The Athletic as a fantasy football analyst and contributor
iHeartMedia
Distributes the FantasyPros podcast through its iHeart podcast network
KFC
Sponsor of the episode with promotional offer for popcorn bucket deal
Sleeper
Fantasy football platform mentioned for dynasty draft ADP tracking and player rankings
People
Ryan Warmley
Hosts the episode and moderates discussion between fantasy experts on player valuations
Jake Seely
Guest expert providing analysis on wide receiver valuations and rookie draft strategy
Derek Brown
Guest expert providing detailed metrics analysis on Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, and Parker Washington
Quotes
"He was awesome. He was wide receiver 21 in weeks eight through 17... Christian Watson producing as a wide receiver two last year is a wide receiver three in ranks. Like he's my wide receiver 21."
Derek BrownEarly in episode
"It's funny how we sit here in fantasy and we're like, we want this player to be this, we want this player to be this, we want this player to be this. And then he's finally this because he stayed healthy. And then everybody's like, well, I don't really know if I like him anymore."
Jake SeelyMid-episode
"Why do we not want their clear wide receiver one? And why is he a wide receiver four in rankings? Somebody needs to explain this to me."
Derek BrownParker Washington discussion
"Caleb Douglas is beyond buried... he is buried and there is no reason to not take him at least in the third round of a dynasty rookie only draft"
Jake SeelyLate episode
"Taking shots on the Miami passing attack, like I think is absolutely incredibly smart. Like whether it's Caleb Douglas or my guy, Kevin Coleman, Jr. like one of these guys or maybe multiple emerged this year."
Derek BrownCaleb Douglas discussion
Full Transcript
This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Take my money. You, you and you. Gather in the name of chicken. For thou shalt not eat alone. The KFC popcorn bucket. 60 pieces for $5.99. Get the deal. Believe in chicken. KFC. Available until 17th of May. Subject to availability. Participating restaurants only. Not available on delivery. See website for full season sees. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros channel. I'm Ryan Warmly joined by Jake Seely from the athletic and by Derek Brown. We are talking players that the experts love to target. This is early on in draft season, right? This is a malleable living document of a list. We are saying we can change our mind on these. It is only mid-May, but as of where we stand on mid-May, looking at some of these early rankings, you can find by the way, all the consensus rankings and tiers for 2026 at fantasypros.com slash rankings. Looking at those half PPR, ECR rankings, we are saying who we like. We're gonna pick a name each from inside the top 75 overall and then pick a name each from outside the top 75 overall. This is supposed to be just general values we like. You guys did happen to both pick two wide receivers. So we could almost call it a wide receivers. We love to target episode. That was just happenstance. These are just players that I like to target. That's on me. I thought it was only wide receivers. No, no, it is. Blame it on Jake. Blame it on Jake. You can be safe if you just blame on Jake. But it's fine because we love to draft wide receivers in general, so we're happy to do that. All right, let's start off with the top 75 guys. Debro, who do you love to target in this range? I feel like I just, I'm a broken record guys, but it's another year, so I'm gonna talk about Christian Watson again. But really the productivity was there where I don't understand like right now in ECR, he's 56 overall, he's wide receiver 27. It's like we all fell asleep and didn't see what he did for the majority of when he was healthy last year. He was awesome. He was wide receiver 21 in weeks eight through 17. Romeo Dobbs is gone. Tucker Kraft is still in limbo coming off the tourney ACL. So what do we get out of him? Then you got Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed, who's not even a full-time player in the Packers offense. And yet Christian Watson producing as a wide receiver two last year is a wide receiver three in ranks. Like he's my wide receiver 21. I've got him at 40th overall. Like he just produces and now the runway with Dobbs gone. Kraft we know is probably not gonna be 100% for most of the year, even when he is out there. Luke Musgrave can't draw targets. I'm all in and Christian Watson yet again this year because when he was on the field 2.67 yards per route run, 23% first read share, he's gonna be their wide receiver one this year. And he was, I mean, you said like, oh, our super 21, I think from when he came back, he was like wide receiver 13 from week 11 on, like after those first few weeks, he was like a legitimately basically a wide receiver one in 12 teams. Yeah, he was really, really good. And obviously there was a lot of spike weeks in there, like league winning weeks with some of his big touchdown days. Yeah, I think the reputation of the Packers is, oh, they like spread the ball around, you know, don't, you know, they don't have a true wide receiver one, but like Watson pretty much was that in fantasy for the last two months of the season. So I'm right there with you. Do you have any concerns D bro? Just about like, you know, injury stuff in general with him, like like longterm or like this season, do you see him as an injury risk or you're like, no, it's fine. He's like kind of well past that. I mean, I think injuries are always a risk with any player, especially when we talk about the injury history of Christian Watson, but I'm more on the side of, I think he's got the hamstring stuff figured out, coming off the torn ACL, the proof of concept of being healthy and then showing another layer to his game as like he stepped up and he was that guy last year. So again, a player that I've loved ever since he hit the NFL, so I'm probably more comfortable absorbing that risk at where he's going. But again, I kind of feel like, like he talked about wearing like he was the top 15 wide receiver when it mattered most for fantasy leagues last year and the situation has done nothing but improve for him in this off season. So if anything, I feel like even my ranking is baking in some of that risk if there is risk. Yeah, Jake, the interesting thing for me with Watson is that so many of the names around him in the wide receiver rankings are players that I really like. Like in a row in tier five in our consensus rankings, it's Christian Watson, DJ Moore, Ro Madunze, Karnell Tate. Like these are names that I'm very interested in this year. So it's definitely just a rager I want to be playing in that end of the pool with the wide receivers. But I do really like Christian Watson as well. I'm alongside D-Bro on this. Where do you come down on him? He's wide receiver 27 in ECR. Yeah, I'm a little bit higher than ECR. Not quite as high as D-Bro. I do have, as you know, if we were doing this show and we hadn't done our shows yesterday already or the day before, I would talk about DJ Moore because I do have DJ Moore inside my top 20. But I think Watson's in this entire group. Like DJ Moore's in the same tier as Watson though. Like if you want to play this tier and say, like I think that's what gets lost a lot of times is like, we're saying, OK, we think these guys are undervalued. And people are like, oh my god, well then either I have to take them or I have to call you an idiot because I don't agree. Here's the good thing is like when we're talking about groups and names as you just brought up is like, if you like one of those names more, like we're saying they deserve to be in the conversation. I think what D-Bro is saying here where I agree with this, Christian Watson deserves to be in the conversation as a clear wide receiver to if not potentially more. And that's really what we're getting to here. So if you disagree, I understand like the only concern might be like, you brought up Tuckercraft if Tuckercraft was 100% because at the end of the year, the last four games were Watson and Reed played together. It was 21 targets, Watson 17 reads. So that's still good. They just gave Reed the extension. Golden looks like, I mean, it's only one year, but it looks like we didn't get anything we hope to get out of him. So like if Golden takes a step up and if craft is anywhere near 100%, then maybe you talk to target share comes down. But then even then Watson goes back to old Watson, which is about to be similar to the player I'm bringing up where, okay, he only gets six targets, five targets, but there's a good chance one of them turns into 30 yards or a touchdown. And he's going to still be that guy. I think the biggest thing with D-Bro and the Watson thing that I'm surprised you to bring up is it's funny how we sit here in fantasy and we're like, we want this player to be this, we want this player to be this, we want this player to be this. And then he's finally this because he stayed healthy. And then everybody's like, well, I don't really know if I like him anymore. That's a perfect point, Jake. It's like people just they want it so badly. And then when it actually happens, they're like, yeah, but he didn't do it for the whole year. OK, what? He was coming off the tournaceo and then he did it immediately when he got back on the field. So it's like, what else do you want? And for the record, I'm absolutely with you on DJ more. I've got to know. Oh, I know. We looked at the expert consensus. We look at the ranks and mentioned who was in line who had him ranked highest. And Jake was like, oh, deep rose, like challenging me here at DJ. Let's go. All right, Jake, who is your higher ranked player that you love to target? So let's talk to you. No, we're just kidding. Like it's funny, like you speak about this, too, is like Alec Pierce. I don't understand what's going on with this ranking because we just got Alec Pierce breakout season. We just got Michael Pittman traded away from this team. And now your number two is Josh Downs, which I think is undervalued. I'm not going to talk about Josh Downs today, but it's Josh Downs or Tyler Warren, who's going to step up as the two when the answer is, OK, well, the one is clearly the one has very little competition, if any, to be the one. And Alec Pierce, and if you look at the fact of like what he did with Daniel Jones and maybe that's part of it, maybe it'll be like, well, is Daniel Jones going to be 100 percent for week one? The interesting thing was is he had four touchdowns without Daniel Jones two with him. And I'm not saying we can carry that over because there was two huge stinkers without Daniel Jones that we saw actually a zero point game mixed in there. But I think worst case scenario is also those other two really good games and the one where Daniel Jones left and play at half the game without him. He actually had more yards without Daniel Jones in that game after Daniel Jones left. But anyway, point being, if you just take those four, you had two 20 point games and then you had two stinkers. Who is that sound like? Oh, remember to Sean Jackson when he did that every year? And then he was like, why receiver two every single year? And that's what it is. I have Alec Pierce in the conversation to be a wide receiver, too, because he's going to get 120 30 targets, even in this offense, that's going to run plenty because he's the one. This team clearly wants him to be the one. And he finally broke out and like similar to the Christian Watson thing is like we finally got the breakout and then people still have him down in like the 30s. I like I have him with eight spots over consensus. And that's still only wide receiver 26. And I'm trying like I want to get him. But to go back to what I said before, I want to get him higher because I like him so much. But then we're talking about Terry McLaurin versus him, Devanthe Smith versus him. Burton versus him, McLaurin versus. Here's the big thing. I think he deserves to be in the conversation with those wide receivers, even if he doesn't necessarily need to be wide receiver 20 and kind of overvalued at that point. Debro, where is he at for you? Wide receiver 22. Oh, so Debro's giving it like I hate him. I hate him. I mean, dude, but seriously, like, why do people not want Alec Pierce for all the reasons you stated? And then when I peaked under the hood and I looked at all of his metrics, I was like, there's nothing that he's not popping in. Like you talk about yards per outrun versus man 1.95 versus zone 2.45 versus single high, 2.7 versus too high, 1.7. Lee, I understand the role that he operated in last year. That role is going to be different this year. He's the clear no questions, number one in the passing attack. Fine, even with Daniel Jones, like he quitted in here and I have a lot of worries about Daniel Jones this year, but even regardless of that, why is he or how can he not be ranked as like a wide receiver or two in rankings based off of purely volume? Nothing else. I want to let everybody know that our dynasty draft simulator lets you crush a full mock in minutes with absolutely no waiting between picks. You can customize every setting to match your league's exact format. And for our MVP and Hall of Fame subscribers, you can even test trade scenarios by mocking with your actual traded draft picks. Not at that tier yet. You can grab a three day free trial of a premium subscription right now at fantasypros.com slash dynasty 26. Prepare for rookie drafts and dynasty startup drafts all in one place. Go to fantasypros.com slash simulator to be the most prepared person on draft day. All right, guys, you each have a name outside the top 75 overall. Debra, where yet? How in the ever loving hell is Parker Washington outside the top 75 players? Did did everybody just miss Brian Thomas, Jr. becoming only a field stretching option? Did everybody miss what Parker Washington did in the back half of the season? You serping Jacobi Myers and this offense for the Jaguars breaking out like I don't understand it. He's my wide receiver, 27. He's wide receiver, 41 and ECR. I have him as a fifty third overall player. ECR has been ninety fifth. So he's almost outside the top one hundred. I just I'm begging that ECR wakes the heck up because week 16 through 19, guys. I can make a case and an easy case here to even pump him even higher in the rankings. He was the white like he averaged twenty two point three fantasy points per game in weeks 16 through 19. That would have made him the wide receiver to overall for the year in fantasy points per game. Now, am I putting that type of label and saying he will be a wide receiver one this year? No. But considering during that stretch, he got a twenty eight point nine percent target share. He averaged one hundred and thirteen receiving yards per game had three point seven yards per route run in those four games. His high leverage usage was off the freaking charts. He had six red zone targets and thirteen thirteen deep targets. So regardless of however you want to splice this up, he was the clear wide receiver one for Jacksonville. He got almost all of their high leverage usage. Unless we think the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to absolutely face plant this year. Why do we not want their clear wide receiver one? And why is he a wide receiver four in rankings? Somebody needs to explain this to me. We, Jake, talked a lot about the Jacksonville receiving room earlier this week. So I'll let you weigh in here. I mean, yeah, if anybody didn't watch the other video, it the video was about how it pains me to say that Brian Thomas is vastly overrated right now and that really hurts is because the short version because D bro just went into a lot and echoed a lot of what I was saying is that they basically turned Brian Thomas into a field stretcher. And that's really all it was is because once all three were there, Parker, Washington, Gobi, Myers and Brian Thomas, every game after that, Brian Thomas's a dot jump 50 percent, almost about 50 percent after that. He was running 20 yards downfield. And the biggest thing is even to go back to what you said, D bro, like even if they don't face plant or do face plant, whatever it is, Trevor Lawrence isn't going to change. And what Trevor Lawrence does is he looks for his first read short intermediate and he goes there a lot. And then if he doesn't, he goes to the second one, which is often still short to intermediate. He doesn't start looking downfield and he doesn't do it that often unless there's a design play for it or the other things are just so well covered. And he has time, which is that's what happened. And Brian Thomas's target share dropped almost 50 percent. And of those targets, a lot of them were that huge a dot, which we know those turned into almost 50 50 balls, even if you're not strongly covered. So that was a little bit longer version than I wanted to say, but I do have Parker Washington. Does anybody watch that video as the highest Jaguars wide receiver? And I've been with D bro in this the entire time as Parker Washington should be because he's Trevor Lawrence's binky, really. That's what it comes down to. Jacksonville, Amon Ross, St. Brown, nobody wants that. And Jake, we talked about this a second ago. People talk about the slot role for Liam Cohen. We get the production and then people are like, we're good. He's a wide receiver for. Don't worry about that. Just a flash of the pan. Nothing to see here. Nothing to see at all. Like I just I don't understand it. You guys are agreeing far too much. I'm hoping we can maybe get a little disagreement here on this last one. Jake's going way down in the rankings for his final player here. Jake, could you have? Yeah, I almost wanted to bring up the entire Raiders collective just to take flyers on any of them, BESH to, you know, the signing of Nailer or anything like that. But then I saw this one, I never had bringing it up for two reasons. If any dynasty people are listening and drafting on sleeper. I tweeted this out last week. Caleb Douglas is beyond buried. I don't know if the ADP is adjusting or whatever, but and then people are tweeting me back and they're like, oh, I got him after my fifth round, all free agency. I got to be like, he is buried and there is no reason to not take him at least in the third round of a dynasty rookie only draft because could he bust? Was everybody shocked by the fact that the Dolphins took him where they did? Yeah, 100%. But we're also talking about somebody who is actually freakish athletic. 6'3", 200 plus pounds, 95th percentile on the speed. He does everything you want him to do. He can get free quickly and continue to stack. If you look at everything that the only concern that he really has is one consistency, but two, he doesn't play up to strength. He doesn't play like 200 pounds. He does probably play as more like 170. And that's something that can be adjusted in the NFL, though. Like it's not somebody that you watch out there and like, oh my God, his routes are terrible. We need to fix this. It's somebody who has an issue that is more easily fixed than most. And again, this isn't a whole test and say like, I'm huge on Caleb Douglas. Caleb Douglas wasn't inside my top 10 wide receivers before the draft. But the dolphins made this investment. I would take Bell 10 times out of 10 if we knew Bell was healthy. But there's questions if he's going to be ready for week one. And even if Bell is ready for week one and I would take Bell 10 times out of 10 over Douglas, this is potentially the one and the two for the dolphins. We're talking about a wide receiver room that is now Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell. You're talking about a field stretching three or four of most teams as he just was with the Cowboys and then two gadgety kind of wide receivers that shouldn't be the starting roster. So Caleb Douglas has the inside track to be the outside starting wide receiver from day one, even if Bell is healthy. And I just think for that point, again, I'm not saying go crazy, but there's no reason that he should be way down off the charts on rookie, let alone way down out of the ranks, completely undrafted and then undrafted and then still undrafted and redraft. Debra. Yeah, I don't disagree with anything. Yeah, I mean, I'm not disagreeing. I think taking shots. Bummer. No, no, I mean, like taking shots on the Miami passing attack, like I think is absolutely incredibly smart. Like whether it's Caleb Douglas or my guy, Kevin Coleman, Jr. like one of these guys or maybe multiple emerged this year. And so if you're going to take shots on Caleb Douglas, like I wasn't high on him as a prospect coming out like his analytical profile was man, but the size, speed combination. I've looked at this as being like kind of very similar because it's his Green Bay south of Green Bay when they drafted Romeo Dobbs, not so much of the player that he was, but who he could become and the leaps and bounds that he took his game to over the years, because I'm old enough to remember Romeo Dobbs and Mobile and he's getting pressed into oblivion and he couldn't get off the line and one on ones. So seeing that type of evolution for a player that had the royal tools, we could see that for Caleb Douglas. Now, do we see it in 2026? We shall see. There could be moments, but I think Jake is absolutely spot on here and taking shots in the Dolphins passing attack. Yeah, the one that compared him to, sorry, it was going to say it was Cedric Tillman as in he could be gone like Cedric Tillman. My comp was Xavier Hutchinson. So yeah, we're never popping the NFL, but you take that chance because he's not going into the situation where he's clearly the fourth. Like there's going to be one of these three rookies, if not two, that we see having value because there's such a wide opening. I was just going to ask D bro, where in Dynasty Rookie Dress were you taking Douglas, where we see overall for you? Oh, let me see here. Um, Caleb Douglas. This is lovely audio. I'll fill in. I have my 27. I haven't a third round. Okay. Just because of the draft. I've got him inside of my top. I've got him inside of my top 50. So like basically like in the fourth round, I think, you know, it's just splitting hairs between guys you're going to take in that five, especially this year, third, fourth round. Just take who you like. If you disagree, like, again, take who you think because it's so like just saw Sadie P out the window once you get past the top 20. I will say I got completely D bro piled on Kevin Coleman, Jr. and took him in a lot of draft. Yeah. Love how you took him ahead of me in our rookie draft. Love that. I saw that. And you, and you took Cole Peyton right before that too. Yeah. I was like, let me look up. I was ranking, I'll piss him off the most. Okay. Here's where I'll go. Draft to enrage. I love it. Slots of fun. You're like this, especially, right? Just like, you know, who knows what we're doing here. I swear my eye wasn't twitching at all when you made those picks. Is it now people forget that I, I, uh, snaked D bro on Pukinakua in our rookie draft in like the fourth round the year he came out and he refused to give me. I was like, listen, I'll give him to you for a third round or next year. And he said, no. And then Mike Mayer trades for him and then lauds it over me every single day of my existence until like since then. So it's been fun times and this time is to leave. All right. Really fun time. Very friendly. No, go ahead and wrap up this short video. Thanks everybody for checking out the values expert. Oh, go ahead. Did you get the shirt reference? For, because for don't play. Nice. Yeah. I would say if Worm gets it though, because Worm doesn't get anything when it comes to these things. No, Worm doesn't get anything. That's like I was saying Ericsson for movie references. No, I'm but Worm is soap opera. I'm looking at I know I'm not getting it. What is it? Ocarina time. It's the rain song. Make it rain. Oh, OK. Yeah, there's no chance I was going to. I was going to get that. All right. On that friendly note for Jake and D bro. Thanks for checking out this video. I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasy pros dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and tick tock at fantasy pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube dot com slash fantasy pros. This is an I heart podcast. Guaranteed human.