$1 Million is the Worst Amount of Money (EP. 459)

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Go to clearbridge.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Riddholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Riddholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, one year ago today, pretty much, I was on spring break. The stock market was crashing. The S&P was down 19% from the highs. The Qs were down 22% at that point. Then I went on a dolphin cruise. Stock market rose 9.5% in a day. I think I got a slack cruise. A cruise where you go look at dolphins. You go on a boat and you ride around and you see dolphins. Surprisingly, let me give you a little factoid here. Dolphins don't roam around the ocean willy-nilly. They stay within a mile of where their house is or whatever you call it. They don't really leave the area that they're part of. What's the interest rate for dolphins today, the mortgage rate? That's a good question. Is that a true story? Dolphins stay to their lane? That's what I learned on my dolphin cruise, that they don't really leave their little area where they live. That's why when you go on a dolphin cruise, the guys know they're going to be there. Then how would you explain dolphins in Point Lookout Long Island? This is definitely not where their roots are from. But they are. You just don't know it. You don't look enough. That's probably a weather pattern thing. All right. From the lows a year ago today, the S&P is up 32%. The Qs are up 40%. Not bad. How much of that situation is coloring what's happening in the equity markets today? Is that too easy of a narrative? What do you mean? I think just the fact that the geopolitics last year sent markets crashing this year or not. Is it as simple as the market says, we just don't care as much about geopolitics. Is there any psychology from last year that's coloring this year that's too cute? I was reading a report from Duality Research and he made a good point that you're talking about where it's like people are waiting for the flush. I think there's a subset of market commentators that say it's not over until you see capitulation. That happens with every pullback. The same people are always waiting for capitulation, but particularly with the fresh memories of geopolitical uncertainty last year ending with a flush and a capitulation. The lack thereof this year, I do think there is something to that. I think it makes a lot of sense. Makes sense that that's the psychology mind. It doesn't make sense that the market's not down or I don't know. I guess we'll see how long this lasts for. Ben, I want to give Austin Plug and you a plug. In my inbox seven minutes ago, we're recording Tuesday morning, 9 o'clock, 7 on the East Coast. I got an email from Exhibit A. You've heard us talk about Exhibit A here before. It is a software company for financial advisors, a communications tool. We just put out a new feature where Ben is ghost writing a monthly report for advisors that are subscribed to the service. The website is ExhibitA for Advice.com if you want to learn more. I just downloaded it and I got to tell you, man, this looks like a million bucks. I understand bias, but that doesn't mean it's not true. One of the charts that's in here is a chart that Josh and I use this or I can't remember. It's a chart that we use to show the S&P 500 at the start of the year, 6846 and the S&P 500 as of today and as of today was March 31st, 6529. All of this is branded in your colors. In between those two bars, we have what is driving the downward move in the index. It's the attribution, right? Yeah, that's right. It's basically all the Mac 7. Apple took 94 points off. Google took 37 points off. Apple 29 points off. 75% of the decline through the end of March was the Mac 7, just a wild development. Other than that, the markets really got nowhere. Yeah, so the other 493 have essentially held up their side of the bargain, but it's crazy that a company like Microsoft could knock 100 points off the S&P. That's kind of nuts. But the thing is, everyone who was worried about concentration, they were looking at it in a vacuum. If the Mac 7 fall, this market is toast and obviously the market is in a little minor correction, but they didn't think of the fact that there could be a counterbalance the other way of these other industries and stocks. You're 100% right. In 2025, if you pulled the average investor and said, do you think it's likely or possible or however you want to word it, that the Mac 7 can fall 15%, whatever they're down and the S&P 493 be positive to up? Would it be less than 10% say, yeah, that seems plausible? I probably wouldn't have. Sort of do not have been the base case. Yeah, no, it's surprising. Yeah, because everybody's like, oh, concentration, when they go, what's left? Yes. And what's left actually has worked. One more plug for the exhibit A thing. Chart Kid Matt picks all the charts for me. I just do the writing and they format it and the, would they form the report? It's really, really nice too. They did a great job. Yeah, that's great. So I believe that the current narrative, which is the war is dominating all the headlines, market it and otherwise, right? Had the war not happened, now who's to say what the market might be doing? But whatever. Okay. My point is- We'd still be talking about AI, let's be honest. Well, yes. But one thing that has not been discussed almost anywhere is the fact that the Russell 3000 value index outperformed the Russell 3000 growth index by 11.7% in the first quarter. That's the biggest spread since 2001. Whoa. 25 years. And I don't really see many people talking about this at all. Yeah, the Wall Street Journal had a piece in this. They showed the Russell 1000 value. The same thing. It's 11 or 12% crushing the Russell growth. So Russell 1000 value is up 2.5%. Russell 1000 growth is down 9%. Pretty crazy. So the S&P down 4% ish. Again, not that bad all things considered. So value stocks are actually, again, the counterbalance. So Matt made a chart for me that I'm going to use for what are your thoughts tonight? So I said, if the Mag7, if these stocks took $2 trillion out of the S&P and the market's not down that much, what's driving the other side of the bus? What's holding the market up? And by far the biggest contributor to the S&P 500 is Exxon, driving 30 basis points. And that it's Walmart. And number three. This is why, because this is not a particularly huge stock. Although I guess the market cap is probably $200 billion at this point. I'm guessing maybe more. The company that I'm talking about is Micron. So Micron, which is up, I don't need to guess. Let me just pull my charts right here real quick. Okay. Holy shit. $426 billion. So just off by a double. So Micron wants a $200 billion stock way back in October. So less than a year. So Micron is up, is that right? Okay. So it's off the house. Micron is up 30% year to date, but it was up 60% as of this writing. JPMorgan had this chart in the guide to the markets that said the top 50 performing S&P companies by sector and energy has 17 of them, but tech still has 14. So as bad as the Mag7 is doing, there are still other tech companies that are doing okay this year, which is kind of surprising. I guess there's just so many of them. It has to be included in there somewhere. I know this is short from thinking, but whatever. Does there need to be another like, oh boy, here we go again from the market to take out the recent lows? Or can we just drift lower because whatever? It feels like a death by a thousand cuts type of scenario. What else could, I mean, oil is already shut up, but does it just oil need to just keep rising a little bit by little every day? What's going to cause oil to spike 20% in a day again? We already had that. Right. Like the market's ability to be shocked by more of the same news, I think is not going to happen. There needs to be something different. Now maybe further escalation would do it probably because I think the market at this point is pretty optimistic that the war will be over soon and later. I feel like we keep saying that too. I guess it's just the longer this goes and maybe it is earning season starts happening. Is it already too late for companies to even have an earnings impact from this? Probably, right? It's like higher gas prices are going to impact earnings already in a meaningful way. Well, but that doesn't matter because it's about outlook. Forward looking. Yeah. Yeah. Nobody cares about what they're going to report in terms of impact by the war. Okay. I think the sentiment is just why won't you go down? Damn it. The stock market. That's it still. Yeah. I think here what you're saying, I feel like we keep talking past each other. Nobody's wanting that. I think people are just wondering that. Yes, but I think just surprised by it. Yes. Yes. I don't think anybody's rooting for that. Well, certainly some more. Maybe it's because maybe it's one of those situations where, yes, the initial shock of the war was a risk no one saw coming. Now that risk is out in the open and people are able to deal with it and understand what's happening. Even if we don't know how long all the unknowns involved in it, there's no more left field with this. I don't know. Understanding the stock market just gets harder and harder, I think. The longer you do this, it doesn't get easier to understand. It's not like, ah, I figured it out. I'm not taking the other side just for the other side's sake, but I think that this is pretty straightforward why the stock market is down more. Earnings estimates keep going up. Why are we... That's it. I think you're right. It's just that the gas prices don't have as big of an impact as they used to. I don't know. We don't need to overthink this. I understand the headlines. Yes, you would think that the market is down more on horrific human news. Okay. This is another situation where I guess AI still matters more. All the AI spend and earnings are still growing and who cares? I can buy that. That's it. All right. Looking at this from Schwab, they put out this monthly report. We talk about what are their different cohorts doing. What's it called? Stacks. Stacks or stacks. What do I call it? I just call it stacks. I call it STACs. What is it? I know we've done this before. I can't remember. Who cares? All right. Looking at broader trends among clients, long-term bullish sentiment among members of Gen X, born between 1965 and 1980, fell slightly in March. Negative sentiment in Gen Z, born between 1997 and 2012, declined even more. Widening the gap between those groups as Gen Z remained the most bearish and Gen X the most bullish. Millennials and boomers also... Okay. ...are among young people, particularly bearish on the stock market, which makes sense considering the AI economic anxiety, but also, let's be honest, the stocks that these people are likely to buy, all of the fun stocks, they're getting destroyed. So... Can you also say that the older generations have just lived through more of this stuff and don't freak out as much as the younger generations? I don't know if that's true. I wrote about this in my book. Remember with the death of equity story and infamous story from Business Week, they interviewed all these people for the book. And the people giving up on stocks after the 1970s were mainly young people. Old people held tight and kept buying. Young people were like, all right, I'm done. No way. I've seen what happens. This is a bad decade. I'm out of stocks. I think there's something to that where young people are give up easier. They were saying, remember millennials said, I'm done with the stock market after 2008. No way I'm going. I saw what happened to my parents and my portfolio. No way. So I have to think more about this, but my knee-tock reaction would be the young people today and the young people back then are very different, have very different attitudes towards investing based on available technology. Number two. Emotions are still emotions though. That's true. But the older people have a lot more to lose. Right? Like if you have a $1.7 million portfolio versus a I'm just getting started portfolio, those are different things. But yeah, maybe I don't know. You know there's a lot to lose? Randy Schilling from Corpus Christi, Texas. Let's talk about my favorite stories. There was a story in the journal, more Americans are breaking into the upper middle class. And for the first decade of Randy's career, he lived in an apartment worried about paying for vacations. And then in his early 30s, he landed a job at a chemical plant that paid about 15% more plus bonuses. He bought a house on a golf course in Houston, promotions and pay raises followed and boom, before he even realized it, he saved more than $3 million for retirement. Joe, Randy said, I view myself as an average Joe. I don't have to have a fancy car. I don't have to have the greatest TV. Randy's 58, but when I want something, I go get it. So this is the story. There's a lot of Randy's out there. So $3 million in just retirement. People always ask like, does that money count include home equity? That's always the, this guy is just $3 million in portfolio. That put you in the top 5%. I have a message for Randy. Go buy the TV, Randy. TVs are very cheap. They get cheaper all the time. Go get the biggest TV you can find. So the whole point of yours. I was in Walmart last week and, or this week I should say, 65 inch TV. I think I saw it for like $300 something. It's amazing. Every year they get cheaper and bigger and better. I am still flabbergasted that there are DVDs, new DVDs, like Five Nights at Freddy's, or whatever. I mean, whatever's new. Who's buying that? Obviously somebody is. So the technology that still exists that boggles my mind. We got a rental car here and couldn't figure out the carplay. It wouldn't work. It just, it kept going in and out. So we had to put FM radio on. I can't believe FM radio still exists. As someone who is exclusively carplay in all my vehicles, podcasts, audiobooks, music, the fact that FM radio still is in trying to explain FM radio to my kids. Like go to the next song. We can't go to the next song. This is it. You have to wait for the next song. Why is someone talking? I agree with you. And here's, I guess here's like an analogy for that. Now you might be the wrong word. But oftentimes when I'm driving my wife and we're looking at small, you know, small stores on the, on the main road, she'll always say like, how are these companies still in business? How are they making any money? And my answer is just because there is a store on the side of the road that is open, doesn't mean the person behind it is killing it. Right? Like I'm sure most of these businesses are not very, very profitable. And same thing with FM. Like obviously it's a, it's a shell of what it used to be. And it's, you know, I just give that will probably melt forever. All right. Let's get back to the numbers here in this story. So the whole, the whole story here is that more people are moving from the middle class to the upper middle class. So they say, and they say in 2024, 19% of Americans were considered poor or near poor down from 30% in 1979. That's an amazing statistic. Pretty good. But the huge decrease. And they also show adjusted for inflation. The upper income class has gone from 144,000 in 1970 to 256,000 today, 70% increase. There's been a 60% increase in middle class from 66 grand to 106 grand. And even the lower income is seen to 55% increase. This is again, adjusted for inflation. Okay. These numbers are mind bogglingly good. Don't you think? Yeah. Ridiculously good. And they, they interview a few people and this, this is interesting. The people who are on now these newly upper middle class rich, whatever you want to call it, they interviewed one guy who said, instead of worrying about paying for groceries, now he worries to make about his children not becoming spoiled in a town where some teens drive luxury cars to high school. And I know you and I have talked about this ad nauseam. I don't think it's, it's a mystery anymore. Why people like this are unhappy just because there's more people. Hold on. Randy seems pretty happy. Yeah. Randy's doing okay. But there's always a story as well. Why do these people still feel middle class? Or why do they, why do they not feel rich? And when they are by any measure in human history, some of the richest people ever, ever here, it's cause last week we talked about how there's these super rich people. And then I think just the fact that there are more luxuries today that exists. Look, I feel like I'm turning slowly turning into a boomer. We were up to dinner last night and we talked about how the vacations we give our kids are 10 times better than the vacations that we got as kids. And that's just a sign of progress. So you kind of say, oh, this, we didn't have that. But the fact that they do, the next generation now does have that. Not everyone does, obviously, is a sign of progress. I think all these numbers are just a sign of progress. And that's why people don't feel as rich as they objectively are. I also think there's a, there's like this thing where once you have a certain number, whether it's income, net worth, retirement assets, I think you think you're supposed to feel different. Yes. And then you just feel the same. Reach the goal is not as satisfying as trying to get the goal itself. Yeah. So there's just more people with more money that maybe as a society or collectively feeling, huh, this isn't as great as I thought it would. And there's also another side of this. This is like multi-layered. There's too many of these people. So it's become less special. And it's a great thing. I mean, obviously, think about, think about Randy in his thing saying, I don't drive a fancy car. And then the other guy is saying, there's teenagers who drive luxury vehicles. Imagine being a person who saves a ton of money and you drive a Honda and you see a teenager driving Mercedes and you go, what the, are you kidding me? So I think it's less about that, although that certainly is a part of it. I think it's just like the cost of having money is expensive. But yeah, the goalpost move, you feel like, you feel like, wait a minute, I've got X amount of dollars and it doesn't feel like that. And I don't feel free. So Majuli wrote over the last year, he wrote a post called the upper middle class trap over the last year I've come to an unsettling realization. The upper middle class is caught in a trap and many of them don't realize it. Homes are smaller even as prices rise. Lending Tree reported that from 2014 to 2024. The average size of new single family homes shrunk by 11% even as a price per square foot surge by 74%. All of these trends point toward the same thing. People are paying more and getting less. This is what I call the upper middle class trap. Right now the upper middle class is in a fierce competition for a marginal improvement in lifestyle. They're working more and relaxing less to purchase products and services with clearly declining quality and say financial arm series. That doesn't make any sense. I think it makes perfect sense. But I get that he's doing that. You know, he's, he's writing. So. Yes. It's, it's a human nature thing. And, and honestly, I've come to the realization that like people talk about lifestyle creep and goalposts moving. I actually think that's a healthy thing. If you have a good relationship with it. Yeah. But there's a lot of people who don't have a good relationship with a good, and to your point reaching that, that whatever the milestone is that you thought you're going to get the income level, the net worth level, the house size, the car, whatever it is, and you get it and you go. Then you get used to it and you go, wow. Okay. And then, and then you're like, wait a minute, there's where all the money go. How come there's not more money in my account than I thought there was? Because so I also, can we, can we come up with a better phrase in lifestyle creep? Creep is a negative word. Lifestyle creep is a negative phrase. I think it should be celebrated. You're making more money and providing for your family. Now, if you get into trouble and you're over leveraged, that's a different story. That's not lifestyle creep. That's being financially irresponsible. But you're supposed to make more money and spend more money. Like that is, you're right. That's, that isn't that what it's for? Are you supposed to hoard your money? What's the point of that? And my thinking has changed completely on this. I'd say in the last like five years, but I, I was walking around Florida the other day and I saw two old couples leaving dinner. Okay. And the, you know, the, some old people where they, they just sort of, they have the hunch walk and they, they, they cut it like, okay, something's wrong with their back and the two, two older gentlemen were both heading the hunch walk. And the, the women were kind of slowly and they looked like they were just in declining health. And I see that and I think I don't want to wait till I'm that age to enjoy my money. I texted you. I said, I'm not going to wait, but that's not, you don't want to be at that stage where you can't enjoy it anymore. And I think that, that sort of idea too has taken hold of a lot of people. That why, why am I going to wait? What's the point of having a bigger nest egg later in life when I can't enjoy it as much? Yeah, that's like foundational from my thinking. My mom died when she was 56 years old. Not that she had any money to spend, but life is short. Enjoy it. Yep. Um, all right. We got it. We got an email with the subject line, worst amount of wealth. There is a scene in succession. Greg is excited to get $5 million. Tom and kind of proceed to tell him that's the worst amount of money. One of the great scenes in succession history for sure. Yeah. I love that. What's the phrase? Five million is maybe it's just five million is worse. All right, whatever. Poor as rich guy, tall as dwarf, et cetera. Oh, five million is a nightmare. That's what it was. Uh, I recently turned 40. Uh, and my wife and I crossed $1 million in investable assets. Congrats. Almost entirely in retirement accounts. And I have to tell you, this might be the single worst level of realistic wealth a normal person can occupy. Let me make my case. Now this is, this is like a half tongue on cheek. Okay. This person's not like, you know, this person's not an asshole. It's a little hyperbole. Yeah. Small market downturns are raising an entire year of your life. My wife and I were down about 6% in March. You know what 6% of $1 million is? My wife's entire teaching salary gone in a month. Uh, this is obviously not true. I mean, right? Like it's compared, like it's like stock versus flow type of thing. This is, this is not the way to think about your portfolio, but I understand what he's saying. Um, you can't contribute enough in a year to matter. Roth IRA limit this year is $7,000 on a $1 million portfolio. That's less than a 1% contribution. Even when I include my 401k, Y4, 3b, Roth, et cetera, we're still talking about some 5% annual contribution. That's a good thing. That's compounding, bro. That means that your portfolio has outstripped your ability or outgain your ability to contribute meaningfully to it. Now this is the, this is the midlife portfolio crisis here. Yeah. It's these are, these are champagne problems. You still can't retire, not even close. A million dollars sounds like retirement money. It's not retirement money, not even the same zip codes, retirement money. The 4% rule says I could pull 40k year before taxes. That's nothing. I'm yelling at them joking, smacking me in the back of the head. It's like, dude, you're 40. Why are you talking about retirement for? What is this portfolio you'd be worth when you're 60? Right. Um, and then lastly, you can't complain to anyone. This is the coolest part. I can't tell my friends. I can't tell my family. The moment the number leaves my mouth, the conversation is over. No one cares. So instead of emailing a podcast at 445 on a Friday, look like a completely normal person. Anyway, I understand this. We all get this person saying he's not genuinely looking for sympathy. Um, but you're 40. What do you, like, what are you talking about? Yeah, you're not going to spend it yet. And guess his portfolio in 20 to 25 years with a 7% annual return, I'm doing my Buffett back. He's going to be worth like four, four and a half million dollars. If he just does it, do anything is funny. Yeah. He's gonna be worth way more. So congrats. Just wait, just wait 20 years. Then you'll really be in the nightmare scenario. Five million. You mentioned this. I think there is something to the fact that if your portfolio size is bigger and you see a bigger dollar loss on a smaller percentage decline, that can screw with you. And this is why people slowly but truly get a more defensive and conservative in their portfolios over time because they don't want to see that anymore. They already won the game. Anyway, that's a, that's a fair, it's, it's up. Some people are going to go, Oh, boohoo, but I think that's a fair email. Court. Yeah. Listen, all this is fair. We're all people. You're allowed to feel how you feel. It's not like this person's gotten a 19 million dollars in his complaining. Right. Like this is, this is a very common feeling. Yes. Let's focus all of our hate on the super wealthy, the point one percent. Correct. Those jerks. This is surprising. The Bloomberg, uh, from Cameron Dawson via Daily Trevor, the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has jumped higher in recent weeks. Thanks to data surprising to the upside. I got to, I got to be honest. I don't know what this thing measures. It looks good. I don't know the measures. I believe it measures. Surprises. Leave it's the name of an old ship. I don't know. I don't know how it's quantified. Right. But it's the difference between. It's the expectation obviously. Yeah. Like you beat the number or you miss. Yeah. Goes up in good times, down in bad times. Fair enough. Yes. All right. Let's get back to oil. Uh, CBS news calculated how much it costs to fill up a gas tank of a different size or style of car. So a Toyota RAV4 is like $60 to fill up. Toyota Camry is 50 ish. F 150 is almost 150 bucks to fill up. And it probably doesn't matter. For most people. Is that fair? Like economically. I don't know when we start saying most people. No, no, I'm saying, I'm saying again for the economy. I just don't think if you're in the bottom 20 or 30 or 40 percent. Yeah, this is, it hurts. It's painful. But I guess you see a number like 150 bucks to fill up a car and you go, geez, unbelievable. When I first started driving in the late nineties and gas was like 95 cents a gallon. I would put $5 in my car. It's funny because in my high school brain would be like, I can't fill it up all the way. Too much money. I'll just put five bucks in. Nobody further tank up at high school. No, I would put $5 a week in my Honda Accord. And it would last me all week. Then I put $5 in the next week. So $150 seems like an insane amount of money. But I think even if you had inflation adjusted it, $150 to fill up a huge truck is probably not that much historically, even though it seems like an outlandish number. It does seem like an outlandish number. Look at Mike Antonelli, happiest man in the world. Talking a lot about how the people online might be upset, might not be that happy. Look at this guy. He just texted us. Look at that smile. Where is it? I can't tell. Where do you think Michael Antonelli is? Oh, it's gotta be Mike Antonelli. It's gotta be Disneyland. Happiest man on earth and the happiest place on earth. Okay. So the Wall Street Journal decided to look at the counter. So the bare whole thing that everyone's been saying is listen, inflation adjusted prices for gas aren't that bad. There's higher fuel efficiency in cars. That's true. Like your Jeep EV, does it still work? The electric part of it? Don't get me started. Okay. My wife asked about getting a hybrid for her next vehicle. And I thought, I don't know. Oh, wait, wait, wait, hold on. Actually, this is an interesting point. So I've got a month left with my car. I almost died on the highway again last week. So Robin's Audi, which is the car that I was $25,000 on the water on for listeners that weren't with us back then. I took it this morning for an oil change. I didn't pay for the prepackaged service where everything is free because I'm already paying an arm and a leg for this piece of shit car. $390 plus tax for oil change. And I said, hold on, that sounds like a lot. He goes, well, it's a Lord. $390. He said it's a three point out engine. I said, I so what does that even mean? So it's more more oil. I'm like, are you people the worst? Okay. Take it to a valway next time. So anyhow, my so yeah, my Jeep did the Jeep death wobble thing on the highway the other day. So Robin, Robin has the car today and she's taking the boys to basketball. And I said, don't drive over 16 the highway because you'll get the death wobble. And she looked at me. She goes, what are we doing here? Anyhow, so I've had multiple people ask me about the Wrangler because it's a great looking car. You've got the the electric roof. Like it's a cool looking car, right? And it's affordable. I think I pay, I don't know much the new one is, but I pay like 600 something from my car, which is a steal. Right. Jeeps will look or one of the coolest looking cars that there is and they will never go out of style. Here's the problem then. Anytime somebody asked me how I like the car, you know, I fly off the handles. But but I found myself in an awkward position multiple times where a couple months later I see them with the car. So here's my new move. You just, yeah, it's a car looks great. Doesn't doesn't really drive that awesome. And they just leave it at that. They can make their own decision. Right. Yeah, true. So the journal says the biggest difference is, yeah, all that stuff is true. Like inflation adjusted. Energy is a small part of household budgets, but it's the speed of the increase that gets psychology. And so they said it's gases a dollar and five cents higher than it was five weeks earlier, which is one of the fastest increases we've had in a long time. Um, and they said that they did a study. Economists have found that round number prices for retail items have salience with consumers. The 2010 Brookings Institute paper found that people were unhappy around days when gasoline rose above 350 and $4 a gallon. I do think there is some psychological line in the sand of $4 a gallon, $5 a gallon that could have like some weird consumer sentiment impact, even if it doesn't really hurt household budgets as much as you would think. It's just another thing. It's just another thing that's going up in price. I guess so, but it's the one thing that the prices are everywhere. I think that's the, that's the difference. Maybe gas prices don't matter. Is that what you're saying? I'm not saying. Yeah. Like what, what other price should we put on a big billboard like that? So everyone knows what it is all the time. The price is constantly. The S&P 500, everybody would be much happier. That would be kind of cool if at the gas station, you saw the Dow and the S&P in the NASDAQ right below gas prices. Here's what should be accompanied by the gas price. If you put $10,000 into the S&P 500 and 2010, here's what it would be worth today. And yes, I'm cherry picking. True. Okay. Uh, Torsten Schlach says that AI is having no signs of impact on youth unemployment rate. Well, Torsten Schlach is wrong. I don't know. I don't know. Bottom line is, listen, the bottom line is there's no sign that AI is increasing unemployment among younger workers. And there's also no sign that young people or recent college graduates are having a harder time finding jobs at the moment, other than demographics. So he should put these charts in here and he shows the unemployment rate 16 years and plus or 2024. And you can see that it does not have a lot of movement there outside of like the regular unemployment rate. And then he also shows among college graduates 22 to 27, it's increased a little for men or it's increased a little for females, but it's falling for men. And they're kind of at the same place essentially. So you could say this is cherry picking. There's other data that supports this. I think this, this data, I still think the AI impact mixed with the COVID impact that, that stuff we're still dealing with. I think it's still too early to see the AI impact of the labor market. I kind of agree with him. I just, oh, you agree with him. I agree with him. I just reject this. How many stories are we hearing about young people and the difficulties with getting a job, maybe unemployment rate doesn't capture the, the numbers. Right. I just, I don't buy this. But you're talking about anecdotes. He's talking data. I don't know that the unemployment, I'm saying, I don't know that unemployment rate is the right data to be looking at. Isn't that the best labor market indicator we have? I don't know. You've been going to war with data lately. What about hiring? What about hiring rates? But doesn't the unemployment rate takes that into account because it's people looking for jobs. I don't know about that. Well, if you believe the government data. You're dabbling in conspiracy theories. All right. You're dabbling in conspiracy theories lately. I kind of like it. You know, go for it. I think this is an anti-conspiracy theory. I think this is complete horseshit. Anybody with a brain understands that companies are less eager to hire young people. I don't care what the unemployment rate is today. Now, if he's saying, if he's saying that, so maybe I'm projecting in him saying that AI is not having an impact and it's not going to in the foreseeable future. He's not saying that, but that's how I'm taking it. All right. Well, anyway, what's the point of this chart? It's like, all right, so nothing to worry about, I guess. Like, why post this? The point that I think the point is that a lot of people think the impact should be happening now and not happening yet. Okay. Well, then in that case, fair enough. All right. Here's a chart that blew my face off. David Senra had the founder of DoorDash on the show. I haven't listened to it yet. And there, there's a chart of US food delivery market share by consumer spend percentage. And DoorDash just destroyed Grubhub. I don't know the dynamics or the economics or the incentives or the technology or whatever. It doesn't matter. I don't, I don't know. But DoorDash, I don't get it either. DoorDash ate Grubhub's lunch. Get it? So Grubhub went from 70% of food delivery in 2016 to 10%. That's insane. So this, this feels like an Uber Eats is just kind of flat line. I actually use both Grubhub and DoorDash. I don't have, cause I think I get a credit card deal on one of them and an Amazon deal on another one. So I don't really have, I don't, it doesn't really, it's, it's the same to me. I don't notice a difference when I use one of the other. Maybe it's, maybe DoorDash has done a better job of partnering with restaurants. Like if you order Chipotle, their delivery, they partner with DoorDash or if you go to rest, so maybe that's where they've done. Grubhub used to be public. What happened to it? I don't know. So I have a conspiracy theory I want to run by you think speaking of DoorDash. So on vacation, kids have to have a lot of sunscreen. We put sunscreen on my little daughter. She has a very fair skin, like five times as she stood up, earned. I think that spray sunscreen is either the DoorDash of sunscreens or it's a total conspiracy theory. It doesn't work because you, you spray like one bottle in a day, essentially. I don't think it works. I think spray sunscreen is a ratchet. Thoughts. I think it's, it's, it makes you, it's easier to do because you don't have to like lather up and put it all over the kids and stuff, but it doesn't work. It works 25% as well as putting lotion on a kid for some. So Grubhub burned $7 billion in equity sold for $650 million in 2025. Okay. Yeah. It was, it was, yeah. Stock fell bottom. The sale to wonder. Food delivery started. I don't know. Um, I don't think sunscreen is a, is a, is a, I think you're going to put a lot of sunscreen on because you have a bald head. So you don't want to get it. So do you use, would you use spray on your head or do you rub it in? Well, our hats. That's true. But I see when we, when we go places that are warm, you put a lot of sunscreen in your head for good reason. Oh, you got it. Cause you don't want to. Yeah. Yeah. Sunscreen, sunscreen works. Um, let's try that. No spray sunscreen. The spray stuff. The spray stuff. I think it's a racket. The spray bottles. Cause the end is gone immediately. The other stuff everyone has in their medicine cabinet, a bottle of sunscreen lotion that, that's like 13 years old. Cause that stuff lasts forever. Okay. From the Wall Street Journal, the typical U S home is 44 years old and he's tons of work. So they break down the age of America's homes and they break them down by four years or less and then by 10 year increments from there. And something like 30 million homes are 55 years or older, which is kind of insane. There's only 10%, 12% of homes that are 14 years or less. So obviously we're not building a lot of new homes. And they're just saying in the years ahead, there's going to be a ton of work. That's going to remember the email we got. Wasn't it just last week, the person said, I bought a new house and all I did was put a ton of money into it. There's going to be a lot of that in the future, especially as the boomer houses that they've owned for 30 years turn over. And young people realize like, not only is there cosmetic stuff I want to do, but there is structural stuff I need to fix the new water here, the new AC unit, the new HVAC, whatever. The, the, there's a few homes in my neighborhood that are listed and the floor is like $800,000 for a, I don't know, 2600 square foot high ranch. So not the greatest layout, not a super desirable house, but $800,000 is about, about the floor. And these are houses that need a complete gut job. And I just don't know. Like 200 grand of work, probably. Who has the money for that? Now it just, it just has to be coming from parents. That's it. There's no other explanation. You can't put down $200,000 on a six and a half percent mortgage and then also put $150,000, $200,000 into a house. Nobody has a type of money. So this should be a new type of mortgage. Listen, this is a new type of mortgage. This should be a new type of mortgage. Listen, I need to borrow a million dollars, not 800,000 because I need to put money into the house and it's going to increase the value. That'd be a good financial product. But the Wall Street Journal also says that repairs are way higher than it used to be. So you and I have both dealt with this structural repair costs grew 14% in real terms between 2022 and 2024 plumbing jump 24%. Again, this is after inflation. Uh, this is funny because it says financial advisors traditionally suggest setting aside 1% of a home's value for annual upkeep. Some say for these older homes, it's more like two to 3%. What percentage of the population actually does this? So the percentage of the home values. Well, the same percentage of the population that is a year in cash for a living emergency. I mean, nobody does that. Um, the housing market is in disarray. Home Depot stock, I don't know if disarray is the right word here. It's just in hibernation. No, it's, it's worse. Whatever the worst word is on the planet. What's the worst word on the planet? That's what how that's the housing market. I said the word debacle to my kids yesterday. I made the estimate. What does that? My son always asked me, what does that mean? What does that mean? He's trying to use new words and his new word this week is nonchalant. And he goes, dad, I don't know where you got it from. He goes, dad, you're very nonchalant. And I said, what do you think nonchalant means? And he said, I don't know, just like, you know, you're not sure. You're not a lot. You're like, you're kind of cool. And I'm like, well, really cool. I'm like, okay, I'll take that. Um, yeah, but I guess I am. But here's the thing. Back to the housing thing. There's $34 trillion in home equity. So if you own a home with a lot of equity, you don't get the complaint. The new you, the person you mentioned, you buy a house, you have to save the down payment and put the renovation costs in. That person is in a really, really bad situation. If you have a ton of equity in your home because you bought it three plus years ago, three years earlier, then you don't get the complaint because you have a ton of equity in your home. You can just pull that equity out to fix the home up. All right. So Ben, are stocks forward looking? Sometimes. Good answer. So Home Depot seems to be Home Depot is the, is the stock that in my opinion, most accurately represents the overall level of housing activity. Would you agree? It's for builders. It's for buyers. It's for owners. It's for, it's for everybody. There's housing activity going on. Home Depot stock is Home Depot. The company is, is, is working. Forget about the stock. The company is working. Right. Okay. Okay. What is it down right now? I have no idea. Is it down 20% from the highs? Uh, worse than that. So Home Depot. Yeah. Eyeball, yeah. It looks about right. But let me just, let me just math this real quick. Uh, Home Depot is down 27, 26% from the size. And it is at the lowest level since December, 2023. Now we know why Home Depot stock is getting destroyed. It should be destroyed. The business is not faring very well. Do we not think that housing is Home Depot saying that this is, this is going to be a minute that rates are going to be higher for longer or is the market rolling higher for longer? Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, this is not, this is, if you use Home Depot's a gauge for future housing activity, maybe you should, maybe you shouldn't have thought, you know, I don't know, but, uh, not looking great. Okay. Interesting animal spirits. Factoid says, cause we have a lot of people who email us saying flyover states or Colesulitis. Uh, this is in a, there's a Atlantic story talking about people are moving to Midwest now, cause the Southwest has been to, or Southeast has got too expensive for some people. So they said one of the first known uses of the term flyover country in print came from Midwestern 1980 issue of S square magazine, Thompson, McGoing, a native of Michigan said, because we live in a flyover country, we tend to try to figure out what is going on elsewhere by subscribing to magazines 1980. Didn't know that. That's all I got. It's the moon in the Midwest. It says, but I'm sure these are on the edges. All right. We're going to do private markets or not. Uh, here, here's an interesting thing to me. So the blue owl is the big story saying that like redemptions for two of their funds were 22%, 41%, which is a massive, massive number. So they, they kept, they kept them at 5%, which they're, that's in the rules. That's that they're, they're right. But they also said under the 5% limit, the larger blue owl fund will pay out redemptions of 988 million, but it also received 872 million of new investments. So a lot of these stories don't, these aren't in the headlines. These numbers that these funds are still bringing money in. Who is still putting money into these funds right now? Where's the money coming from? So was that, was that, that was in the first quarter? Is that what that report is? Yeah. So you think maybe that's a stale number. Like these people made those, fill the paperwork out before this, all this stuff happened, maybe. I would assume that there is approximately, I don't want to say zero dollars going right now, but there's, that has to be stale. Okay. That, that makes sense to me because well, again, it's not like this stuff happens. One day you put the money in, like there's a lot of paperwork involved. And, and you have to put a note of interest. Okay. That makes sense. The thing is all the private credit funds are rightly showing, like talking about loan quality and the fact that default rates historically have been pretty low, but no one cares about that stuff. If this much money is rushing out, that's, that doesn't matter at all. In a crisis of confidence, no one cares about the loan book. That's true. That's true. It also doesn't matter because it's like, uh, I don't care what happened. I care what we think is going to happen to the loans. That's, so these funds. Yeah. So these funds are also relatively new. They thought there was a big profile about cliff water in the Wall Street Journal. And they say cliff water is fun. CC LFX, for example, was the only one of its peers to have withstood the COVID market downturn in 2020. And then they put a parentheses, a footnote noted that no comparable funds operated during the downturn. So the, this is still such a new asset class for people to invest in. And these fund structures are still so new. And that's one of the reasons I think that we're having all these problems. This is new stuff for people, for investors. You know, it's also new stuff, Ben. You and I are going to be doing a podcast in Washington, DC next week. That's right. Wednesday, April 15th, tax day in the capital's country. Nope. The country's capital, Washington, DC. We'll be talking to Alex Morris of FM Invest. If you're, if you're, if you're around, come say hi. I can see us doing a nice long walker across. That's a great walkable city to see all the sites. Fantastic. It's the kind of place that the first time you walk around Washington, DC, and you see the monuments, it is kind of mind blowing. I, uh, I walked around DC kind of recently, Josh and I were there. This during the shutdown actually was very bizarre. There was nobody there. It's fun times. All right. I got some travel thoughts. Wait, hold on before you get to your travel stuff. I asked Rob, Hey, Rob, pull the, pull all the animal spirits recordings for 2025 and tell me how many times I say the word ostensibly. So how, how was he able to do this? He pulled the transcripts. Yeah. Um, you were, this might have been your worst take. Remember last week I said, I said one every three episodes tops and I'm still taking the under. Okay. So Ben tried to roast me for saying the word ostensibly very frequently. Um, how many, how many times do you think I said that? In 2025, by the way, this includes all animal spirits properties. So we did two episodes. So we did a hundred and something episodes last year. 15. Wow. That's backpiling five ever seen one. You've said the expectations. Six, buddy. All right. I'm going to have to audit these results and also have them cross-reference the compounded friends. Six times. Get out of here. Uh, all right. Travel. What's one of them? So another, I talked about vacations being different. The fact that Airbnb houses now exist. I know that rental houses have always been a thing. I don't know when I grew up, how my parents would even know how to find a vacation rental house because we, we never did it. So at our stage in life, you and I both have relatively young kids having the ability to stay in a house and rent a house, Airbnb, VRBO, whatever the, it's just, it's just so much easier to do. And having that, having a house with kids at this age with laundry and a TV and the ability to relax, it's such a game changer. I can't even overstate how it's funny because Airbnb obviously created this brand new thing essentially. And their stock has done nothing since they went public. Absolutely nothing. They have gotten no economic value out of this thing they created. Well, that's not true. New shareholders happened. They created a lot of money in the private markets. True. Right. Cause what was not, I mean, not to be a dick, but like seriously, what, what did it go public at valuation wise? Yeah, it was a hard billion. I think it's, it's yeah, not too different from that. So there was, there's been a lot of people who have said, listen, the, the internet came out and since the internet came out, there has been no change in trend line for economic growth. Like the internet created no economic growth whatsoever. It didn't change the trend. Like the internet made us all more efficient in a lot of ways, but it didn't, it didn't like add to the economic output in meaningful ways. And I almost think that AI in a lot of ways is going to do that at the beginning because I have a question for you. Is that not a case of like numbers lying? Like, what do you mean? Amazon created no value, no economic value. Like just, I just nonsense. You're right. Maybe, maybe it changed, but it's like, it didn't increase GDP. Like GDP didn't seem meaningful increase. So you're right. Maybe it boxed out and it took value from other places and, and GDP would have been lower apps than that. But that, that's a point people have made. Like the internet has, has not created a huge amount of like more economic growth. It didn't change the trend line of GDP growth. Correct. So I think AI, especially at the beginning, maybe everyone thinks like it's going to change everything in the future. I think in the beginning it's going to be a lot like that. Cause think about it. So AI is a great travel agent, right? Someone gave me six, one of our Adam who lives in Naples, Florida, one of our advisors gave me like five restaurants. He said, I said, I just want to place by the water. Give me some options. He gave me like five restaurants. I said, these are our favorites. We had to drive down from Fort Myers to Marco and on the way is Naples. So we put in the, I put in these five restaurants into chat and I said, give me one that's on the water, good drinks, good for families, but also not too far off the beaten path. And we've been doing this on a daily basis to plan stuff out AI, which makes people a lot less adventurous, obviously. But what economic value does that create for this society? Now it just makes our experience a little better. I think AI is going to do a lot of that for people. But AI is an amazing travel agent. Is it not? When you have questions about something, how does this work? Where do I go park? How does, you know, it's, how do I find this on the out? It's, it's awesome. All right. One last thing. I have a huge announcement to make. Huge groundbreaking announcement. After years of research. No, no, come on. After years and years of research, extensive research. Okay. I put in the time. I think I had my first Miami vice 15 years ago. Okay. I'm willing to name the best Miami vice that there is. I found that I've tried it multiple times. I get excited every time. There's a, there's a restaurant called Stilts at a Marriott property in Marco Island and they have the best Miami vice. Something they do to their pina colada. It's just creamier. They put little flecks of coconut on the top. So this picture I put in here, it's literally the perfect mix. It's the perfect Miami vice. It can't get better than this. All right. Shout out this place one more time. It's called Stilts and Marco on a very cool place. Overlooking the ocean. It's called Stilts cause it's raised. You know why? You know what else? I feel like, um, maybe it's just the picture that you took. This looks, this looks perfect. The way that the floater seeps into the drink as opposed to just floating on the top and then you spill it out as you walk, like this, this does look perfect. You're right. That's a, that's a downside of some of them. If the floaters going over when you spill them on yourself, my kids always make fun of me because I take pictures of my drinks and send it to you guys when I'm on vacation. And I love that you're taking another picture of drink again. Really cool. This is a picture. Perfect. Um, all right. This is a, we spoke last week about club soda, seltzer. Somebody said, Michael, there's a big difference between the two club. So does added sodium seltzer does not. If blood pressure or hypertension is that all on your radar, you're much better off with plain seltzer. Okay. Not to confuse you, the issue, but if, if hardburner acid reflux is an issue, you're better off with plain water. So I've been taking nexium. Every day for about five years, nexium is to prevent acid reflux. I get serious heartburn when I eat like a meat. I can't be healthy. Right. Does it work? Yes. Does it actually work or not? Tums wouldn't do it for you. If I skip a day, I feel it. Louis CK told a joke, like, um, how he went to the doctor when he was over 40, like nobody cares, but when you're over 40, it's like, whatever. Uh, his ankle was hurting. The doctor said, just take like eight Advil a day and he said, eight Advil. It's like, like bad for my liver. It's like, what, uh, what would you say if I was an athlete? The doctor said, you're not an athlete. So I guess, you know, you gotta, you gotta. So I thought about this more about what do you call it? I think I call it, it's funny because I call, I call it, I don't say soda. I say pop. I remember people in New York when I would order at a restaurant or make fun of me, but I think I'd call it soda water. I think that's my term for it. Okay. Now that I thought about it. Now that I thought about it. Um, Ben, I, uh, I discovered something about myself. Okay. I don't love. All right. So we're talking, we're talking about movies now. I don't love the garbage crime genre. And I, I don't know if I'm giving credit to Chris Ryan and Sean Fendnessy for making this turn up, but so I watched crime one on one. That's one of the Hemsworth brothers. Yes. It's got a great cast. Chris Hemsworth, Ruffalo, Halle Berry, Nick Nolte, remember that guy? By the way, Nick Nolte is 85 selecting Barry Keogan. Uh, who else is in it? Um, Monica Barbaro. So this is, they have cops, but they also have, this is one last job to get the heist is that the idea? Probably. Yeah. Yeah. Now don't get me wrong. So, so the movie was like, I just didn't, it wasn't that good. It was, I had like, I had a good enough time watching it. I'll watch the next one. Right. I watch these movies. So I don't like this like them. It's just not my favorite genre. And I didn't really realize it fully until I just checked the reviews after I watched it was like, oh, it's fine, whatever. Uh, 89 from the critics, 85 from the audience. And I realized that there's a disconnect. So like he is obviously the best version of this type of movie, right? So maybe people overrate these movies. Is that it? I don't know. Yeah. I get, and I do love heat and I can't wait for the prequel. Um, but even so, so here's what I compare it to for me. It's like barbecue food. Now, if I'm in the area of barbecue, I will eat the shit out of it and I will enjoy it, but I don't seek it out. Okay. I don't, I don't eat, I don't like, I like barbecue food. I just don't eat it at home. It's not my favorite. It's not my favorite genre. So crime 101. Yeah, it was okay. I'm kind of surprised that I don't love those movies. A movie like Ronan, I think is like one of the perfect types of that movie. I think that's one of the most underrated 90s movies there is. Awesome car chase scenes, good twists at the end, great, you know, European. They have better car chase scenes than we do here. Yeah, I like one of them. Just fine. That's versions of that. Just fine. Okay. So I think that movie is amazing. All the George Butler movies, like I watch all them, not all them. I want, and not, you know, whatever, they're, they're just, they're just fine. I think the thing is they've gotten junkier over time because the good stuff has already been, I already been done. Yeah. I, uh, I'm really enjoying Rooster and the movie. Rooster and DTF. I know I keep studying this every, every show, but are you watching those or now? I'm probably three episodes in for both. I, I'm enjoying both as well. HBO still got it. So here's great news about DTF. Uh, it's only, it's a mini series. It's like 20s. How long are the episodes? Are they, are they even 30 minutes? 30 to 40. I'm, I'm a sucker for the mini series too. If I see that it's a mini series and it's six or seven episodes, I will definitely give it a try. Seven episodes out. Yes. And you know, there's going to be a finale to it as well. You know, it's going to end. It's not going to be a cliffhanger. And I, I love Rooster. There's no bad guy. It's just like a nice show. Yes. Steve Corral. Rain off kind of show. Yeah. Very, uh, very less stakes. Um, I took my kids to see, um, uh, two movies so far this break. We're home, spring break. Not a lot of people are home. So we're, we're trying to fill the time. Movies is a great solution to that. Hoppers was an awesome kids movie. It's like at the Avatar premise. In fact, they explicitly say it in the movie. My kids liked that one. I didn't see it. Hoppers is great. Um, good, clean story made sense. All right. We saw Mario in, uh, in the giant IMAX yesterday in New York City. And the kids loved it. It was Kobe's favorite movie, even better than goat, which was like his, his previous favorite movie. It was, um, I heard Sean and Amanda saying this, like how they just said it was like, yeah, just, uh, creatively bankrupt. There was like, they're just being haters. Like they're being like movie snobs. How bad could it be? It was really tough. Like there was there, cause I think there was, there was no plot and it was just, there were so many different characters. It was just like really confusing. I fell asleep a few times, whatever, who cares? It's not for us. It's for the kids and the kids loved it. Kids don't care. And every kid's don't. Yeah. Kids don't care. Kids don't care. Cause we have terrible tastes in movies. Every kid loved it. So every, every movie they see is their favorite movie. All right. Um, I haven't been watching much stuff cause I'm on vacation, but I did on the way down and watch is this thing on, it's the Willer net movie. And Brad, the Cooper wrote and directed it. Okay. It's a movie about Willer net does, turns into a standup and they, they use the comedy seller in it actually, which is kind of cool, but it's, it's bizarre. And here's my, my one takeaway from the movie. Brad, the Cooper needs to chill out. He's a stop taking himself so seriously. Okay. So he decided he, cause he was the best when he was on wedding crashers and all the comedy and hangover and all the comedy movies he did, right? He was perfect for those roles. Then he decided, you know what? I'm, I'm graduated from comedies and I'm going to become a serious filmmaker. And he's done like some great movies. So I thought Star Wars born was, was really interesting until I still think it was kind of weird that guy peed himself on stage. I don't know. That was a choice, but he wrote and directed this movie and it's a movie about, it's a sad movie about standup comedy. Okay. So it's, it's, um, what's the wife's name? The one from I'm blanking. She's from Jurassic Park. She is. And Laura Lenny confused. Um, Lord, Lord, is her and willer. I'm not giving too much away. I think it's in the previous her and will learn that get a divorce at the beginning of the movie. And then he, some, that somehow leads him to do standup. But at one point he walks in and does an open mic at the comedy seller, which is probably as impossible. Haven't it? But the way that they use standup, but the standup is not funny. It's, I'm not, I don't find myself laughing at a movie about standup. And I feel like that's doing this movie about standup is almost impossible to do. I thought funny people did it really well. That's probably the only one I can remember. Actually did a good job of it, but most in that Pete Holm's show on HBO was good crashing. We're so good. You can't do a sad movie about standup comedy. It doesn't work. So I think Bradley Cooper needs to chill out a little bit. That's my take on this movie. That's great advice. I like very high quality movie, great acting, great cinematography, whatever. Everyone loved early Bradley Cooper, but then he also did Maestro. The Leonard Bernstein movie that no one watched. I think literally nobody cares. Yeah. You're right. That doesn't take like it's it's it was a movie about standup. A guy trying to be a standup comic, but it was took itself way too seriously. That's where I landed. Uh, one more thing. So I, my love of, of sports was waning in like my mid thirties-ish. It's like, you know what? I've, I've been a huge sportsman in whole life. I just, I can't make myself care as much as I used to. I kind of saw it. My love of, and especially college sports, just kind of like, eh, whatever. It's becoming more professionalized and I don't care as much anymore. And then now my kids are getting into it. And so Libby got really into it. Michigan won the national title in football three years ago and got really into it. And took her to a game. And it was a fantastic memory for me taking her to a game and them winning it and watching it with the kids and get seeing them get excited. And then this year, finally my son, George got really into the basketball team. And I guess it helps that it's the best Michigan basketball team ever. And we went to one of the games and it was so much fun last week. And then we watched the final four this weekend and they won. And they got to know all the players and just viewing it through their eyes, I think has been, it's made my love of sports come back to me. And obviously it helps when your teams are winning. We went, I told them, look, guys, we just won two national titles in the last three years, like, don't expect this to happen all the time. But it was very special. And my son said I'm nonchalant, but they also get to see the lunatic version of me watching sports, you know, because the game last night was really ugly and Michigan almost blew it like three times and I'm a complete lunatic that is during the game. And I'm sure you have this too, where in your kids, you like, who is this person? Why is this lunatic person acting like this during a sporting event? It's the only time in my daily life that I get excited. I think me too. But I mean, like physically, you know, yes. All right, Ben, on that point, I want to, I want to play something. Let me share my screen here. OK. How much do the officiating change this guy? I mean, is there fine? I mean, what? I mean, that is that is that is how you use this guy. Dan Hurley is this guy. I can see that. That's pretty good. That's the coach of Yukon. I guess what the call wouldn't go their way. Oh, he's a maniac. He was very against the calls in the first half. They get all the calls in the second half. So I thought it balanced out pretty good. But that's your job as a coach to complain about the the officials. The other cool thing about like being obviously having your team win it is amazing. But so my son was decked out in Michigan head to tell yesterday, Michigan hat, Michigan shirt, Michigan shorts and Michigan sandals, like way too much. But everywhere we walked around the island, people would say like go blue like because obviously everyone is a win from Michigan and spring break right now. So that part of it is is really fun. I highly recommend having your team win a championship. Great, great experience. I did it twice for the Giants. It's been a minute. And it has been a minute. Um, all right. Ben, enjoy the rest of your vacation. Give me a give me a market update. S&P down 1%. Jack, we were talking about this on on on on T calf. Zuccarity had a good chart. Bottoms are messy. Now, I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but like a a V shape where it's just like you never look back. Like, yeah, that happened in that happened last time in 2025. During the tower of Tamtrum. That's unusual because it's not like if there's been enough damage to individual stocks and there certainly has. It's not like everybody goes back in the pool immediately, apps in a headline, right, because there's headlines to take you up. Heather, oh, no, we're going up. We're going down. So we'll say we're probably do a correction that has some head fakes. This is my dead cat bounces. I think we're doing that. We get it. Yeah, probably not. We get what? I feel like getting your expectation of what a correction should be like is probably now what you're going to get. Never is. All right. Animal spirits at the compound news.com. Thank you very much for listening. For those of you who are in the DC area, we'll be there. FMinvest.com. If you're looking to learn more about the event, personal emails, personal responses, we'll see you next time.