The Bill Simmons Podcast

The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House

101 min
Jan 16, 20263 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Bill Simmons, Peter Schrager, and Joe House analyze the NFL coaching carousel, focusing on John Harbaugh's hire by the Giants and Mike Tomlin's departure from Pittsburgh. They break down the divisional round playoff matchups, debating quarterback situations, defensive strengths, and betting angles across four games.

Insights
  • Organizational stability and ownership clarity matter more than quarterback talent when evaluating head coaching opportunities; multiple candidates would prefer coordinator roles with established QBs over head jobs with dysfunctional franchises
  • The Giants' Harbaugh hire represents a cultural reset prioritizing discipline and professionalism over offensive innovation, addressing systemic instability rather than quarterback development
  • Young offensive coordinators (age 30-35) are increasingly viable head coaching candidates, challenging traditional experience requirements as teams prioritize offensive innovation and adaptability
  • Defensive dominance (like Houston's historically good defense) can mask offensive limitations in the playoffs, but travel factors and cold weather create vulnerabilities for dome teams
  • Playoff betting success requires distinguishing between narrative-driven picks and fundamental analysis; betting against elite QBs without strong secondary reasoning historically fails
Trends
Experienced former players (Matt Ryan, Troy Aikman, Tom Brady) increasingly taking executive/decision-making roles in franchise rebuilds, replacing traditional front office structuresYoung, unproven offensive coordinators gaining head coaching opportunities as teams prioritize offensive scheme innovation over proven track recordsCoaching market inefficiency: established coordinators with proven success (Ben Johnson) creating value by waiting for optimal situations rather than taking first available HC jobCold weather and dome team transitions creating measurable playoff disadvantages; special teams and travel fatigue emerging as underrated factors in divisional round matchupsOrganizational dysfunction (Browns, Cardinals, Dolphins) creating multi-year head coaching job avoidance, with candidates preferring coordinator roles or waiting for stable franchisesQuarterback-centric playoff analysis overweighting individual talent; defensive matchups and offensive line health creating larger variance in outcomes than QB quality aloneMedia narrative and locker room dynamics (Ben Johnson-Sean McVay tension) influencing playoff motivation and game outcomes beyond traditional X's and O's analysisShort-week scheduling (49ers on 6 days vs. Seahawks on 8) creating measurable competitive disadvantages that teams leverage for motivation and narrative control
Topics
NFL Coaching Carousel and Hiring DecisionsQuarterback Evaluation in Playoff ContextOrganizational Stability vs. Talent AssessmentDefensive Dominance and Travel FactorsCold Weather Playoff PerformanceOffensive Coordinator Promotion TrendsSpecial Teams Impact on Playoff OutcomesCoaching Contract Extensions and LeverageFront Office Structure and Decision-Making AuthorityPlayoff Betting Strategy and Narrative BiasDivisional Round Matchup AnalysisYoung Coach Viability in Head Coaching MarketDome Team Performance in Cold WeatherRun Game Establishment as Playoff StrategyMedia Influence on Coaching Narratives
Companies
Fanduel Sportsbook
Primary sponsor offering same-game parlays, profit boosts, and playoff betting features throughout episode
The Ringer
Bill Simmons' media company; hosts the podcast and produces related content including rewatchables
Netflix
New distribution platform for Bill Simmons Podcast; episode is first week on Netflix with video component
Spotify
Audio distribution platform for the podcast alongside Netflix video availability
ESPN
Network where Peter Schrager works as media personality covering NFL coaching moves and analysis
HSBC
Wealth management sponsor offering financial planning and investment services
LinkedIn
Job posting platform sponsor; offers AI-assisted hiring tools for small business recruitment
People
John Harbaugh
Former Baltimore Ravens head coach hired by New York Giants; central figure in coaching carousel discussion
Mike Tomlin
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach who departed the team; discussed as potential TV analyst or future HC candidate
Bill Belichick
Former Patriots coach; referenced regarding coaching market dynamics and potential TV opportunities
Sean Payton
Denver Broncos head coach; analyzed for playoff performance and coaching effectiveness against Buffalo
Kyle Shanahan
San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator/head coach; discussed for game planning against Seattle defense
Mike McDonald
Seattle Seahawks head coach; analyzed for defensive scheme and playoff experience against 49ers
Josh McDaniel
New England Patriots head coach; discussed for offensive strategy against Houston Texans defense
Ben Johnson
Detroit Lions offensive coordinator; analyzed for rivalry with Sean McVay and playoff performance
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback; extensively discussed regarding playoff performance and betting implications
Bo Nix
Denver Broncos quarterback; analyzed for playoff readiness and matchup against Bills defense
Sam Darnold
Seattle Seahawks quarterback; discussed as potential starter if injured, compared to Drew Locke
Drake May
New England Patriots quarterback; analyzed for performance against Houston's elite defense
CJ Stroud
Houston Texans quarterback; discussed for playoff performance and cold weather challenges
Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears quarterback; analyzed for fourth-quarter performance and cold weather capability
Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles Rams quarterback; discussed for cold weather experience and playoff performance
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback; referenced in context of offensive coordinator opportunities
Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens quarterback; discussed regarding relationship with Mike Tomlin and team dynamics
Peter Schrager
ESPN media personality and co-host; provides NFL insider perspective on coaching moves and team dynamics
Joe House
Co-host and gambling analyst; provides betting perspective and game analysis throughout episode
Matt Ryan
Former Falcons QB now involved in Atlanta Falcons front office as head of football operations
Quotes
"John Mara is sick. Like John Mara, the owner of the giants is sick in a way that in this move is like him putting his flag down saying, okay, whatever happens over the next, however long, like we know this franchise is at least in capable hands."
Peter SchragerEarly in episode
"I just felt like I know he wasn't in charge of it. But he also had an immense amount of power. I'm sure they didn't want him to leave the last five years. And at some point, you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again. We shit quarterbacks."
Bill SimmonsDiscussing Mike Tomlin and Steelers QB situation
"This might be like the 2000 Ravens. They might not do anything on offense. They might just win games 13, 10, 16, 13. They might, we might wake up the Monday after the Super Bowl. And it's freaking Will Anderson on a float in Disneyland."
Peter SchragerAnalyzing Houston Texans defense
"I can't think of anything worse than the Cleveland job. I would rather not have a head coach in job. I would rather just pass."
Joe HouseDiscussing available head coaching positions
"If literally the only reason I have is the quarterback. And I don't want to bet against them. That's not a good enough reason."
Joe HouseDiscussing playoff betting strategy
Full Transcript
The Bill Simmons podcast presented by Fandall Sportsbook. We are also presented by the Ringer podcast network. I put up a new rewatchimals on Tuesday. We do what lies beneath. We have a really good movie coming out Monday. Good meaning that we've been dying to do this one for years. So stay tuned for that. You'll be either pleasantly surprised or horrified. It'll be one or the other. This is my fourth podcast of the week. It's our first week on Netflix. We remain on video and you can listen to us on Spotify as well. And you can find us on any podcast platform you want. We will be going live on Sunday right after the fourth playoff game of the weekend, which is Ram Spares. Cousin Sound on Be Here. It should be around seven o'clock. We will be live on Netflix for that. And you'll be able to listen to that one right after. Come up here. We're going to have Peter Schrager come back. We have Joe House still here. We're a carcass from last week. We got killed on picks. It's fine. We're going to talk around too. We're going to talk coaches a whole bunch of other stuff next. Say break pro gym. And then boom, let's go. The Bill Simmons podcast is presented by Fando. Fando's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in lives. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the bet that fits your play your way. Plus don't miss out on the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite times of the year all month long, download the Fando app or head to Fando.com slash BS to get started. Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Let's be 20 and plus president select states 18 plus and DC Kentucky Wyoming. Game prom. We'll call Winner. We'll go and we'll visit rg-help.com call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right. Recorded this late afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here as always as we continue the carcass that was our ringer one of seven picks season. I'd like it at this point. I'd rather with pixie there be terrible or good and we've been terrible this year. Peter Schringer joining us. He's been doing media. I think for 48 straight hours. I've seen him on every SPN channel. Just Tom and Harbaugh. He's just written. I'll have to repeat Tom and Harbaugh. Tom and Harbaugh. Tom and Harbaugh. Why was this such a big deal? Which one? Both of them. Just like the combo of it. It felt like this end of an era start of a new era thing. Meanwhile neither guy had won a playoff game. Well, Tom and I had won him. He lost his last seven. Harbaugh had it made the Super Bowl since when 2013. Yep. Since the Super Dome. And yet it was everyone is reacting like this. Like do these guys have anything left in the tank in your opinion to be Super Bowl winning coaches? Interesting because as everyone was doing flips on my ESPN networks today and hello to the Netflix audience. I'm happy if you're watching Emily in Paris. I'm here now. This is good. As everyone was doing flips about the the Harbaugh, you know someone in the NFL, a very trusted source texted me and goes, I kind of sworn you were all doing the same flips about Pete Carroll last year when the Raiders hired Pete Carroll and they thought that that was the culture guy and that was getting the bring stability and I said, it's a little different. It's a little different in that Harbaugh is 11 years younger than Pete Carroll. And in this case, like he is what the giants actually need. Such turbulence there over the last five, 10 years. And this is almost, I don't like saying, I didn't want to say this on air on television because it's almost goes to like a dark place, but John Mara is sick. Like John Mara, the owner of the giants is sick in a way that in this move is like him putting his flag down saying, okay, whatever happens over the next, however long, like we know this franchise is at least in capable hands. And we know that John Harbaugh is going to at least instill stability and install a professionalism and a culture of discipline winning giants football. That is what those fans have always known whether it be Kaufflyn or Parcells or even Dan Reeves. Like there's always been that that senior voice, that leader, that guy who's been there done that before even getting there. You mean, you mean the fans over 18 years old? Yeah. I mean, that's, sorry, I hate the giants in soda's house. No, just they haven't been good in, they haven't been good in 11 years. I've been fine with it. The giant fans have seen this. It's like, there's giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good happening with this team. So it's been a while. I guess. And the counter to Harbaugh, which there's many, like I'm telling you, my phone lights up when I go on these ESP and shows people in the league who are like, always just quick to tell me I'm wrong. So as I was praising the hire and saying why this doesn't necessarily work for seven of the nine or not seven of the eight teams, giants made sense. Giants need this, that franchise needs this. Someone said he's 63. He doesn't call offense or defense. He's, he lost the locker room this year in Baltimore of a bunch of 20 year olds who he didn't connect with anymore. And oh, by the way, for Mr. Special team's coach and CEO, they blow leads more than any team in the fourth quarter. So what exactly are you getting? And I'm like, all valid, all fair. The giants fan base and franchise needed this guy at this moment. Well, you left out that the hiring of coaches didn't seem like it was one of his strong suits either other than Mike McDonald, who was awesome for him in a big reason why they were succeeding. Now you're seeing him in Seattle. How so you nervous how hard by being in your division? Yes, definitely, especially with that giants roster. I mean, on both sides of the ball, there's talent. I've enjoyed the ineptitude and the thing that that from the perspective of Washington fan, they still have that GM. Thank God that GM is still sitting right there in the chair. Somehow he survived. Overall, these years of ineptitude. But here's the thing, man, they needed an adult and they hired an adult like that. That's the thing that's been missing. Debal is awesome. And honestly, it's impossible, but the best move for the giants would be the higher Brian Debal as the offensive coordinator. That would be a team that would have to be. Well, don't laugh. So Debal is actually interviewing or doing this on Thursday. He's interviewing for the Titans head coaching job tomorrow. And I think Eagles actually makes a lot of sense for him. But Mike Kafka, who was the interim coach and the offensive coordinator last year, like I got it from pretty good people. Like he's still in the mix as an offensive coordinator for the giants that the rare like, all right. So I was offensive coordinator, new head coach. And I was the interim head coach, but I still might be the OC because Dart actually showed a lot of flashes with him. Everyone in the morning was like Todd Munkin is going to be his offensive coordinator. Well, Todd Munkin is interviewing for the Cleveland job on Tuesday, I believe, for the second time. It might be the Cleveland Browns head coach. So slow down with putting in who's going to be the coordinators, but these hires, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator are almost as important as landing the plane with Harbaugh. I just I thought they were sloppy the last couple of years. And I thought that stuff with Lamar and the relationship was just strange. Guys, one of the best five quarterbacks in the league and and everything about it seemed choppy and weird. I thought they blew just, I mean, how, how many times did they blow games that we bet on? I mean, that's true, although I would push back gently on the notion that they were sloppy last year, there were some regular season losses that we can you write the hallmark, but like they were one play away, and they were absolutely as talented. If not more talented than the bills, they just, you know, because they threw away a stupid Raiders game in the early part of the season last year. To mint you ended up having to go on the road to Buffalo. And it was a last play of the game, you know, kind of situation. And that's been the tale over the last half decade with this Baltimore. My thing is it increases their floor. Right? Totally. Now it's like if Harbaugh had been in charge of last year's team, they probably don't have the record they have. I like that he's an adult in a city that needs adults and needs, you know, it'll be interesting. There's a couple of cool meta Brian Curtis sports media stuff here. Oh, the people that were the people that were on it were ENO Connor who's not necessarily a giant beat writer, right? Like Art Stapleton who's the local like New Jersey dot com writer. And, you know, you've got guys who we don't typically get the day to day from. And it was like this is an old school coach and he's got his people. And as we're tracking everything, what I loved about it was that in real time, it wasn't the 48 hours. Let me show you how they got them. People were like, all right, they're at dinner at a restaurant in East Rutherford right now. Or Chris Mera went and flew to Harbaugh's home and sat with him. Like the chase was fun. This was like a cool ride for Giants fans. And as much as Joe Shane gets shit on and as much people think, Joe Shane landed this plane. And I know money talks and I know that maybe Harbaugh wasn't going to have 10 other opportunities. But to get Harbaugh to agree to do this before meeting with Tennessee, which from all accounts, we're going to offer him the world. Also, no state income taxes, no pressure, cam ward could have been an opportunity that was interesting. It was pretty cool to watch this in real time from a media standpoint. And not the usual players who are saying here's what the latest is. Like Ian O'Connor, like dusted off the old notebook and was like, all right, I'm going to be up to one in the morning working on this. Paul Schwartz from the New York Post was like, I'm going to be on this. It was, it had a kind of old school chase to it. And from the journalism standpoint, from the spotlight or from whatever, it was like, all right, there is a place for media in this. And this Giants beer reporters did a great job on this one. And there was a piece about a red on sports illustrator about the dinner in the wine so he's rather for now. They had a how she would like that they went off the menu with the dinner. Oh, you know, a lot of some stuff that wasn't normally on the menu. I think the hard about things fine. We'll see. We'll see how it goes. He's hitting that mid 60s. It's another young team. And if he had trouble clicking with the young Ravens, I don't know why that would change with the Giants. So the Tom and thing was way more interesting to me because he's younger. I think he's a better coach than Harbaugh. And I think there were real reasons why he didn't succeed, which basically stemmed to the fact that he they threw with a quarterback position for seven, eight years ever since Big Ben started to fall apart. I guess the question with that one is he seemed to discount the quarterback position and never really even like when they could have drafted Jackson Dart like there was stuff in the draft they could have done. It feels to me House like he need he just needed a break. I'm excited to have my TV. I don't know if he's going to be as good as everybody seems to think he's going to be on TV. I reserve judgment because I think he's coming back to the league. Those guys always scare me when it's like I'll do a TV but I don't want to be too hard. But what's your dream scenario for Tom and House? Well TV for sure this upcoming season. God, we need that. And you know, we did a draft. Cousin Sal and Nancy. Yeah. And you know, the possibilities range from the new head of the defense department, department of war all the way to Fox. And I think Fox is probably where he'll land. But honestly, BS, you just raised a point that I am fascinated by. And I have to ask Pete because Tom will never tell the truth. What was going on in the front office of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last decade. Mike Tomlin didn't miss out on drafting Jackson Dart. It wasn't 100% his decision. The only quarterback they drafted was a tiny person with tiny hands. Why did they do that? And how have they missed over like there's been good quarterbacks for eight years now. Yeah, but they were in quarterback, you know, purgatory because of the draft spot. They never had that top 10 picks. And when they took honey pick it at 20, it was like, all right, like he watched pick it every day at practice because they share a facility with University of Pittsburgh. There was a comfort level there. But I don't I can't blame him now. Look, they had the 20th pick. I think this year in the draft, they passed on them. They took a defensive lineman. But yeah, they passed on Jackson Dart, Shadour, Tyler Shock. Like could they have taken one of those guys? Sure. Tyler Shock was a tough one. That I mean, he went to the 40th pick. Yeah, but I think in his heart of hearts, they knew they were all in. And I had a good feeling that he had an assurance that Aaron Rogers was the quarterback this year. So again, I that's fine. They could still take Shock. Yeah, I mean, we have a lot of parallel admins over Lamar Jackson. All these are fair. I just felt like I know he wasn't in charge of it. But he also had an immense amount of power. I'm sure they didn't want him to leave the last five years. And at some point, you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again. We shit quarterbacks. Like what are you doing? Guys, help me out. What's interesting is the stuff that came out afterwards is that he handed his papers and he said, I'm done. He walked away. And it sounds like the Steelers were willing to run it back maybe one more year and have that conversation. So whereas Harbo was flat out fired by Steve Bishaddi, who by the way, the best hour press conference I've ever seen. I love the gift. Yeah. And we don't have enough of him on television. He should be on a microphone more. But that said, where that's a firing, this one, Tom and gives his papers in and says he'll do it. And he goes out with dignity and he tells the team and you get the story today that he if someone was crying and standing ovation, the whole thing, he's got two more years left on that contract. And as pleasant and as amicable as that was, the Steelers are a business. And they're not just going to let him go anywhere. So he's going to have to sit out at least one year. And then next year, there has to be a trade to get him. Now he was making more than $20 million a year to be the Steelers head coach. And he's got two more years left on that. So like, it's a he's walking away in a place where I don't, I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break. I think he wanted to have a fresh start. And the media deal. I worked obviously with Sean Payton the one year he was away. You know, Mike McCarthy and I did the draft together this year when he was away. And it's amazing that these guys still like when Payton was gone for that year, he might not have said to any vitriol like things or done made gone viral. But like watching games with him, like he is just, he was just peppering everybody in that green room. What are your thoughts on Bryce Young? What are your thoughts on Justin Herbert? Do you think that chargeers shall be open? Like he spent that whole year navigating the landscape and getting as much. What do you think of David Tepper? Is that a guy I can work with? What do you think of it? Like those were the questions. I would imagine if Tom one takes a year off next year will be a fact finding mission. And he will be the Mike Frabel hire of next season where he was away for a year. And now he will have all the information he wants. So should I done this after I left the SPN house? Take a year. Just take any year and just done the Fox Sunday NFL show. Just I mean, those guys and been like, I don't know what I, I don't know what I have long term yet. Stake dinners. It just sounds great. You're worth it. It's basically like a gap year. You're like, you owe me. Because I would have been I would have invited myself to at least two thirds of the courtship. I mean, scarcity is the is the most valuable sort of attribute, right? And and and look at the coaching cycle we're in right now. There's still what six jobs to get filled. Eight eight eight. And there's not exactly Ben Johnson and Mike Frabel on the market. And we're talking about teams are going to be fighting over Jeff Hathley and Jesse Minter. No offense to those guys, but that's what that's also I would add with the the gap year and the year away. Like Bashaddi said something interesting. He said to John Harbaw, hey, you're 63. You like to travel your wife, you know, you guys are in your 60s and your daughters in her 20s at law school. You like like, use this year because five years from now when you're 68 or 10 years from now when you're 73, you won't be able to travel like you want to you won't want to do these things. Tomlin walking away now. Perfect time. Come back or fresh and truly already will be the bell the ball for the next head coaching opening. It's tough because if you're a steward's fan, hard to feel good about the rest of the decade, right? Tomlin's like, okay, guys, we'll see you later. It went all in this year. Yeah, this is like the guy selling the house that he knows that the there's all kinds of shit in the basement and there's black mold in the bedroom and the neighbors are about to do construction and there's 90 things that are about to happen and he's just like, I'm out. I wish everybody the best. Thank you. And he's just gone. I'll be interested to see where he goes. Not just for a football for TV. What do you think? Well, first of all, we have too many people on every show to begin with. So it's not like, oh, man, they need one more person on this show. I do think Fox could use could could maybe use a little Botox in injection. I thought Fox was pretty brutal this year. I didn't really understand. I know it's shrugs. I know you. This is good to say and this is tough for shrugs. But I just I feel like the mix is kind of gotten still on the Fox show. So I think that would help. NBC left. NBC with the coaching seat. Well, NBC, I think the Sunday night show, you know, but NBC is interesting because then you could do the whole big announcement at the Super Bowl with 50 million people. You could roll out Tom Lennon. We got the Olympics. We're going to bring Tom Lennon the Milan. Like he's going to be the shiny new toy for a little bit too. But most times they go in the studio, whereas I actually enjoy it more if they knew how to do the games. And I know that games are really hard to just get thrown into. But I think that would be really fun to hear him break down different stuff. Well, it's this is, we've talked about this every time this happens. The Pat Riley NBC factor of you just grow and stature the year off by the time it's 12 months from now. It just seems like you're the biggest prize imaginable. Maybe House's Commander's job will be open by then. Well, I don't want to buy us too much, but this Brian Flores defensive coordinator thing really has my attention. You like it? And would that be a head coach and waiting potentially if this Washington team does not perform up to. They just got rid of they just parted ways with Cliff because they felt like, hey, can we have people who are going to be here for a few years? Why would you then hire Flores for one year? Oh, no, no. It would be for longer than one year because he's the next head coach. That's not awkward or anything. Yeah, come on. What do you think of what do you think of 30 year old David Blow who's never called a play at any level? I'm not worried about that because we have lots of evidence, you know, yeah, every one of the most successful young offensive minded coaches in the NFL were here in Washington at one point and they were all young. They were David's age. So let's go ahead and take a swing. I've gotten to know him a little bit. He's I mean, significantly younger than me, which is alarming, but like I don't think anyone expected him to be an offensive coordinator, but he is outstanding and like is one of those guys him and Davis Web, who we both we all watched are both like these like quarterback wastefers now and they're basically saying Jaden and him had a great relationship. Let's just elevate him and let's go. It's great. Listen, after conkniple comes in age 20, does the BS pod for 75 minutes? Like everything's just happening younger and faster these days. 30 year old sounds great. They all grow up quickly. Yeah, everybody maybe it's the internet. Good. So can I can I use that to to throw a name for the Cleveland job that's getting a lot of heat right now? Before you do that, yeah, I can't think of anything worse than the Cleveland job. I would rather not have a head coach in job. I would rather just pass. Why do you say that? I mean, I think they're terribly owned. I think they have not figured out the quarterback situation at all. They have this dishaunt thing hanging over them. And I just think that there's seven other teams I would rather be for the next five years. And they have see hands down without even blinking. How am I going to turn things around and Cleveland? Good luck. Go ahead. Yeah. The I know there's a lot of former Browns employees who listen to this podcast. They're grinning right now at that at that whole comment. That's the way I did it. They said it's still a good defense. What I would say is we're talking about the young like that's the team that goes and swings for that super young coach because there are no expectations next year. They have this really good rookie class whether you like like Shadour, not he's part of it, but besides him, it's Schwestinger and it's Fanning and it's Judkins and they got all these guys. And it's a blank slate. So the two names that are getting a lot of buzz with them and comes from good sourcing, Grant Yudinsky, 30 year old offensive coordinator of the Jaguars and Nathan Schillhouse, no relation to Joe House, who is the number three on that Rams offense, who's 35 years old and used to coach at Iowa State. So those two guys might not gonna look anywhere else, but they might be the next head coach of the Browns or they just go super young and say screw it. Let's just go with a young fun vibe. And by the way, Watson stuff falls off the books after next season too. So there's a silver lining to all this at some point. I don't say I'd rather hire Mike McDaniel than any of those dudes. I think the McDaniel thing, you could really talk yourself into it if you stared it long enough because Tuo was just not a quarterback that you could do anything with. On top of all the injuries they had the last couple of years and it was a weird situation to begin with. I would rather, at least there was some proven stuff happening with them with DJ Mikey Mack spinning his tracks. Let me ask you guys, because this was a good debate I had with someone today. Would you rather be the head coach of like the Cardinals or the Browns or would you rather if you're Mike McDaniel or your Cliff Kingsbury, there are so many amazing offensive coordinator jobs open right now. So Detroit's offensive coordinator job is open. Philadelphia's, Tampa's, are you better suited going to one of those teams with an established quarterback, the chargers with Justin Herbert crushing it for a year? Or do you say, you know what? I had coaching job only comes around so often I got to take a head coaching job because I don't know if anyone's gonna have to choose between the two, but there's a lot to like about those coordinator positions and there's so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs. I have a take on this, but House, let's say you're a 32 year old, you're not a Red Hawk coordinator, but you're definitely respected and you're in the interview process. Would you grab the first head coach job that you could get and talk yourself into it? Or would you play the long game and try to build your, build your, basically build your, your fortitude for a year from now basically versus like grabbing something? Yeah, the credibility, the quality. Yeah, I absolutely adore the Detroit opportunity. I think that's amazing. And that would be my absolute number one first choice without hesitation or reservation. Yeah. So as we're like Arizona head coaching job with no question with doubt at quarterback, but here's the thing, Shanks. No quarterback. Who's the quarterback? Who plays quarterback for the Cardinals? Can I be a new coach, can so the area for a second? Yeah, please. Let's do that. That's fun. This is good. Who's your quarterback? Who's your owner? That's it. You can figure out everything else, but if you, if you're over two with those two things, I'm out. Arizona, who's been a fucking bigger disaster than them other than Cleveland, right? Arizona is the, it always goes wrong with them. Jets would like to be included in the conversation. I'm saying out of the ones that are available, the Jets have a coach at least for the next couple. Well, Raiders are kind of interesting. Yeah, but I would much rather have the Raiders job because at least I have a quarterback in that scenario, right? And I have an owner assuming Mendoza. Yeah, at least I have somebody that I can talk myself into. Okay, okay. And Mark Davis, who's been a bad Raiders owner, but he's been a good WMBA owner. It's not like he's completely incompetent. Whereas the Browns and he spends. He spends. And you know, when he hired P Carole a year ago, we were like, that makes sense. P Carole, maybe he can read that. Chikelli, that's great. Yeah. We thought Jean and Gino, like that, that was a good risk, a good gamble. So I look at it like, I just wouldn't do those organizations unless they had this awesome quarterback. I'd be afraid to do the Tennessee one too because I think they're a mess too. I think their quarterback is good. But you have to get more. That's what I mean. Yeah. So with that one, I can talk myself into cam ward. I'm sure Harba probably heard stuff about the organization that made him be like, oh, I'll do this giant thing. Biggest longest NFC franchise we have, right? Them are the bears who's been around long time. Those two. Packers. I'm talking back to my ass now. How do you rate the dolphins? Good question. I think that's a bad job. Right? That same thing. Organization QB. Well, I don't have a QB. Steve Ross has been not as bad as the Browns owners, but he's in the running. They've never want to play off game. Yeah. They haven't want to play off game this century. So you're going to just walk in as a 30 year old guy with no QB and turn that around. Probably not. I'd rather go to Detroit, build my shit up like Ben Johnson did and then wait to strike for the, for the, like what's it? If you're 30 versus when you're 32, like what's the difference? Think about the guys like, what was that guy? Rob Chatzinski. Yeah. Who took that Browns job? The Browns couldn't find a coach. And they're like, all right, this guy, that guy's career was over after that. Like nobody was hiring him after that. I wouldn't want to be that. I wouldn't want to be like, this is a career under that I took this job. 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If you've ever hired for your small business, I've done this once upon a time. You know how important is to find the right person. That's why LinkedIn jobs is stepping things up with their new AI assistant. So you can feel confident you're finding top talent. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash Simmons. That's me. Then promoted to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant making it easier and faster to find top candidates. That's LinkedIn.com slash Simmons. Post your job for free terms and conditions apply. So each franchise is different. I've spoken to a lot of these candidates who are interviewing for them and it's funny. They're all on Zoom right now until they can meet in person unless they're fully out of a job. And like, I guess I haven't, like Brady's very involved with the Raiders one. I think I'm allowed to say that. Like Brady is, he was at this fanatics of the... So fun. So fun cause from the same parts yet. That's what's the fanatics of that. That's what he's a bigger. Yeah, but this fanatics have been at the intuit dome. Hold on, I'm talking to Alex Cooper. I have to call you back. Alex Arnold, late and then all of a sudden he's, you know, he's on a Zoom, you know, and he's very engaged and dialed into like, very engaged. That was great. That was good. That was engaged. He owns a part of the team. He's leading the interviews. All right, he's find a big role. I was like, all right, so what's Ackman's role in Miami? Well, once they hired the GM, apparently John A.R. Xeleven, who's the Packers GM, or was the Packers number two is now their GM and he's running the show, but Ackman's on these calls also. The, you know, each team is different. Like who's in the room and who's got the voice? So I think owner and leadership and corporate structure and or chart are almost more important than quarterback. Like we'll figure all that stuff out, but give me a stable franchise where I know who I'm reporting to and I have some sort of base like that to me is almost more important than the quarterback. So would you say the giants are a stable franchise? I would because it's family owned and those guys were stable, but incompetent. Potentially the last couple, yes, they, they've not had, they've not been competent the last few years. Like plus years is incompetent. They were a lot of swings and misses. They went to the playoffs three years ago and want to play off. They went a lot of fray. They were like eight eight and one or something that year. I got it. Come on. I got on shrugs. So how so you're with me on what organization QB if I'm open to no way. I feel like we've had this conversation already. So the what the Washington job from two years ago, I think has become more interesting because how sends up with Dan Quinn and Jaden Daniels, right? Coaching QB spot available in that draft. Pat sent up with Rable and Drake May, who easily could have both been the Washington picks. And then you have Ben Johnson, who ends up a year later get matched with Caleb, but potentially could have had the Washington job. Well, it's like you could write a book about how all these like funny doors, right? They were on the air. Oh, they were on the plane. That's right. And they read on Twitter, an Adam Schaefter report that he was withdrawing his name and they landed in Detroit and found out that oh, he's actually going back to Detroit and they flew back home. I mean, that could be Ben Johnson. How you can have Ben Johnson and Drake May right now? Just weird. I saw all these variables. It's like, we're way, you know what the difference between those teams and quarterbacks is in Washington, Washington, played in the NFC championship game. Yeah, yeah. So I'm okay. I'm pretty good. Amazing. I worked out for everybody. Ben Johnson waits a year, he ends up with Caleb, becomes a cult here on Chicago. If they win this game this weekend, probably doesn't have to buy a drink again for the next couple of years. I think he's had a profound impact on Caleb. Yes. I based that just studying the locker room speeches and the demeanor on that. Yeah. The last one was one of the best ones last week. And then the variable thing was a miracle that the that nobody hired that guy for a year. The past enough of them. He was with Cleveland last year. Yeah, just like, what was his coach, especially? No one's or something. No one thought to hire him the year before. Like it's actually amazing. So where's job is what? Cardinals. Cardinals is tough. Cardinals is tough. That's a pill battle in a lot of ways. You're in a division with the Rams, Diner, Seahawks. You have no quarterback. Your abilities are not. Yeah. What the other teams have, like you're dealing with jediwork who spends like no tomorrow, Stan Kronke, one of the richest men in America. And then that Seattle franchise with the, you know, the Allen family money, which is just insane. So it's an uphill battle from the start. You think that Cardinals, I think they feed people on the team charter or is it one of those like just chips and spring water and soda? I mean, that was the dance sniper playbook. Yeah. That's one of the things they do. This is one of my favorite things like finding out like the cheap owners, like some of the tricks they do. Or if you want to, if you want a t-shirt, you have to, they take it out of your paycheck, that kind of stuff. Or like the one less bus where it's like some teams will have like a lot of buses near the other ones. You're like crammed onto the bus. Like you can cut, cut corners every single way. I think the Cardinals job in the Browns job are tied for whereas I kind of like the Vegas job. I do too. Yeah. I think, you know, the fourth place schedule next year, the chiefs are going to be a mess. Who knows? What about the Atlanta job? What do you think of that? You like the Atlanta job? Why do you love the Atlanta job? Because I think they have a lot of good players. I really thought that was the best team that did it make the playoffs. The funniest thing about the Atlanta job is that we basically have to say something nice about the quarterback situation for that to be as appealing as we, we just talked about it, right? We intuit that that's an appealing job because of all of the talent on both sides of the ball. But they're going into the season with who playing the perfect. I think Penox is the right guy. I know. Isn't that insane? Penox is right up. So you'll appreciate this because you just, I know you guys love like the corporate like how this falls. Okay. So Raheem Morris thinks he's keeping his job. They lose that game. He ends up getting fired afterwards. Everyone's shocked. It turns out that that was weeks in advance. They'd already hired a consultancy firm that had already done all the work. Now this called Saltzlisi firm. It's called Sportsology. They gave Arthur Blank like a book of recommendations on how he, you know, should build his franchise, how the corporate org, org chart should be all this stuff. And then Arthur Blank is like, you know what? I want Matt Ryan involved. Matt Ryan now is involved. They do an interview for a couple of other guys, but it's really Matt Ryan's job. Head of football operations. And now it sounds like Matt Ryan is the loudest voice that's going to be deciding all this stuff. And it's, it's just honestly nuts. I mean, the brainy thing is nuts too. These guys have never had any sort of organizational anything. They were just quarterbacks. But what they know, they know the franchise inside and out. They know the market. You know, it's. They were there that I, I'm less dismissive than you. Bill, you're the same guy who hates the blue shirt, Kaki Pants Mafia. That you work for. What's that? What do you know what that is? Right, Bill? Yeah. It's what I used to call the miniatures at the former giant company I used to work for. I don't even know if that company is any. Company. Bill manages to show up in waves like coyotes wearing blue shirts and Kaki pants. Office space. And they have generic notes for everybody. Hey guys, here are generic notes. You miss work yesterday. I will say I missed it. You got Troy Ackman and Tom Brady and, you know, Matt Ryan who are like, I actually have done it. It's, I actually respect that too. It's like Matt Ryan. You've been on the set of CBS for the last two years. We need your thoughts on how to rebuild our football organization. From top to bottom. Come on in. No doubt. Hear the car case. Please tell us what to do. I don't understand. I don't think this is that hard. Like the fact that Brable was sitting there for an extra year. I almost feel it's probably like us with the ring or one of seven picks house. We just stare at too much information and like your brain breaks. And you can't just like step away from it, look at stuff logically and be like, I'm taking Trevor Lawrence against Josh Allen. What am I doing? I'm going to have to ask Pete did the Titans put out some some bad words about Brad, did they let you know, some whispers? Because that there was acrimony that led to that split. And Brable was always the, you know, we we understood from our side of things it seemed like he was the one that that should have outlived that situation. Yeah. And hindsight. And hindsight. But hindsight in real time. Let me say the first shriggs is reporting that. I don't know if he wants to do or not, but I he's a big, outsized personality alpha. And some people don't want that in the building. I don't think Washington did either. Like you get that guy. That's like your guy, your whole, the whole culture is coming from him. The Patriots don't care because they had no culture. They're owners. Yeah. And they're like, take this. He was there. Yeah. And they knew him. Where was like Washington? They're not in Washington because Washington hired Peters. They had they had the new ownership. And they didn't break. It could have coexisted. No, but they didn't necessarily need the off scene. They were together. But they didn't necessarily need the one man culture show. They wanted to do like this group. Group thing where a bunch of people are in and Dan. Don't get it tested. Survival for these executives is always in the equation. And it's why Bella check out one interview. And it's why a variable isn't for everybody because you're handing the keys over to the label. And I give Elliott Wolf, who preceded Mike Vable as a GM, a ton of credit for saying, you know what, bring it on. Reading the rim. Yeah. Like this could save my job also if we start winning because at the end of the day, it won't. And then today, you know, Joe Shane could have very easily argued for a 33 year old defensive coordinator because that means he's going to be the biggest voice in the room. Joe Shane is no longer the biggest voice in the room, but knows what's best for the franchise is to hand the keys over to a 63 year old. And he's going to say, I'll do my job the best I can. But this is the new face of the franchise. Well, he wouldn't have had a voice if he didn't go for that. Can I just read you Bob Kraft's house? You know, where you saw this Bob Kraft gave an interview a couple days ago. And one of the things he talked about was Gerard Mayows firing. And he said, he was talking about how tough it is. And he said, I would say that was one of the one or two hardest decisions I've had to make because the firegaffer one year. And by the way, it was very expensive because it was not only his contract, but 25 other coaches. It's the worst financial implications since we've owned the team. Oh, I'm sorry, Bob Kraft. You're like, I'm freaking multi-billionaire. The teams worth $8 billion. You print money. We spent 50 million unspent money this year. You're complaining because you hired the wrong coach. You had to fire him. I love Bob Kraft. Thank you for bringing us six Super Bulls. But come on. You can't complain about how expensive it was. You're the fucking owner. You've printed money from this team for 30 years. Just stop. We're going to take a break. We're going to go through the four games. We only have four. We have some great subplots. I can't wait to talk about them. So quick break. Peace. Don't you have another morning? Another reminder there's a gap to be careful of. But maybe it's time to bridge the one between your nine to five and your dream of living life on your own terms. At HSBC, we know ambition looks different to everyone. Whether it's retiring early or leaving more for your family, we can help. Because when it comes to unlocking your money's potential, we know wealth. Search HSBC wealth today. HSBC UK, opening up a world of opportunity. HSBC UK current account holders only. All right. We'll go through the games in order. Fellas. Same scenario as last week with the bills. Who are now one and a half one underdogs in Denver. And this all comes down to what is your appetite for betting against Josh Allen. Last week, it seemed like a great idea. I stand by the pick. I feel like Jacksonville lost the game in the first half, but they're hit a point in that game where every third and seven, you just felt like Josh Allen was getting it. And it felt really dumb to bet against them. So how's, why is this different this week? Why would this be different in Denver? Because Sean Peyton is not Liam Cohen. I mean, honestly, the thing that we miss in the handicapping of that Jacksonville game is we did not spend enough time thinking through. We're so dismissive of McDermott. I think somewhat justified, like the touchdown with a minute left that gave the other team the ball back with a chance to tie. Probably not the best decision in the highest leverage moment. So and he's got a lot of those on his resume, but respectfully, respectfully, because I am a hugely in Cohen fan. He just wasn't up to it. I mean, you know, he botched the play calling and that Jacksonville team did exactly what we asked of them. Go run down ball to Buffalo's throat. Keep doing it. Never stop. Run run run run run run run. And instead we're given the ball to Trevor Lawrence. Now good. I'm glad that we're continuing to build him up. He is your franchise quarterback. Next season, they should be good again, but it's the playoffs, motherfucker. It's time to go win the football game. Take advantage of your advantage. The advantage was the run game and they didn't bite down hard enough on it. And they lost because of that in my humble opinion. So that's the question for me, Shraggs. What do we do? We throw out the result last week because Jacksonville screwed the game up or as Buffalo in 2006, Pats Mode where they somehow made the AFC title game with Brady and Rache called well and Jabbar Gaffney and Ben Watson and Lawrence Mamoroni. And it's just like how did this happen? I look at the bills who now are down to Shakir. Brandon Cooks who was in the league six weeks ago, Samuel, who just came off. I are banged up, Kincaid. I think McCall Hardman, I saw. Oh yeah. And and Dawson Knox, both the running backs, Shabers out. No Gabe Davis. Gabe Davis out. And now they're missing two safeties and no poyer. And it's no. House. The line should be Broncos by three. And you're getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen and it sucks to bet against Josh Allen. That's it. I can't think of another reason other than Bo Nex just shitting the bed in this game, which is the other thing you have to think about Denver. Oh shit. I took Bo Nex against Josh Allen. Why did I do that? I also, I saw a good and they were underdogs to start the week. Another favorite. They were the first number one seed in the AFC ever in the divisional round to be an underdog at home. They are the second ever since and the only other one is the Eagles in 2017, who Carson Wentz had just gone down with the knee injury. So no one believed in Foles. There's no reason that the Broncos should have ever been underdogs. Now they're favored by a point or whatever. The disrespect is out of this world for Bo Nex. And you got to think full two weeks, but really three weeks because of that week seven to that week 18 game. Trayla. Haven't that. Yeah, that was the exhibition game. Been resting home field advantage out of control. Besides the Jacksonville game that it lose at home. So on paper and they got a super bowl winning head coach and Sean Payton, who is a master motivator and doesn't let these guys take their foot off the pedal. And they're healthy and they're all healthy. Healthy. So it seems like their biggest problem is like Patrick, Sir Tane is awesome. Who do we put them on? There's nobody left on the bills. Right. How do we use this advantage? We don't even have a number one receiver to throw him on. I say all this and I'm with you because you and I rode the Mahomes train all those other years in the playoffs and it was always the right move. This guy is Superman and it's his time and he's been knocking on the door for years and the path is clear. I can't pick against him, dude. Wow. Wow. Was we can get into the ice and those. I was expecting I spent a year with Sean Payton and this guy's built for this moment. Nope. Didn't do it at all. I mean, you know the game plan, the bills just have to be close in the fourth quarter. And then let Josh hang around. That's it. That's the game plan. Alan has fun game. Alan has five playoff losses. Ford of Mahomes. One to Dishon Watt. Someone who's good wild card round. So that was an overtime game where it was like baby. Did you crash the lateral? Yeah. And they'll timer. My fears for this game. From the Denver side other than Josh Allen. I thought there was some weird game management stuff with Payton this year is as good of a coach as he is. And I think culture setter motivator, all that stuff. There was some over aggressiveness at times. Some just kind of do the thing you should be doing. I to me like I love RJ Harvey 90 plus yards rushing in this game is plus 400 on fandal. After watching that Jacksonville game where they should have had 200 plus yards in that game. I think the average 70 yards of carry. I just like just feed RJ Harvey have Bo next doing some design roll outs like just fucking run and keep the ball. And don't let Josh Allen have it. I have these long ass drives. Then on top of it, no safeties. Court in Sutton 30 yard pass reception plus 195. I like him hitting one. I think Denver is just it would have to be a collapse on their part combined with Josh late. Right. So it has to be like that Jaguars game where it's half time. You're like fuck they blew it. They they left all the shit in the table. Now I know where this is going. They've also like Chicago. I've won a ton of one score games in miraculous fashion. And as we've seen time and time again, sometimes that that stuff wears down towards the end of the season. And it doesn't happen in the playoffs. So you know, they won all these games. They were winning at home. That Jaguars loss was real. They got beaten in their building. And a lot of these guys, they're young still. Now they played Buffalo in the playoffs last year. Bonyx, they threw for 140 yards and completed 55% of his passes. But that was in Buffalo totally different circumstances. I don't know. Is it their time? Might be or it's not. Broncos. Yeah. I mean, that's this is the fascinating piece of it to me, right? They if they run, then they don't need very much from Bonyx. And if the bills play, they're standard like, you know, too high. And they take away the explosives and they throw the the sky's coverages, right? I mean, because McDermott is a good defensive coordinator. Bob and Babbage is there is call on the D in like he's really good too. Yeah, like they'll they can throw a defensive Bonyx. That will sort of bottle him up. But if if the Broncos can establish the run that you don't need very much out of Bonyx, you just need him to really not turn the ball over. Now Bill, I heard you on with Sal and you said, you know, you're kicking yourself. But then again, the outlier is the Eagles chief Super Bowl last year, where we all took my homes because we're like, on paper, it should be the Eagles. Did you not? You took Philly. I took my homes and the lesson I learned from that is if literally the only reason I have is the quarterback. And I don't want to bet against them. That's not a good enough reason. Well, then you're taking Denver. I think I'm leaning toward Denver House. Where are you leaning? Unfortunately, I already bet on Denver. I like Denver. I understand exactly the harm that I'm putting myself in front of you and I have been terrible. Terrible. It's fine. This we are known as a bad year from time to time. I still don't think that our analysis of the Jacksonville situation was wrong. And the packers were the year should have hit both of those. I mean, we should have had a minimum been three and three across the six games. You had New England pegged perfectly. Yeah, and then I put some stupid. I told you not to do that. I know you did. We took that we had the panthers figured out that was a good angle. Stupid Packers. They had that game in hand. Let's ask Shreggs. We moved on too quickly. Who is Green Bay trading Matt LaFlore to and what will he fetch it in return? So he could be a head coach somewhere. That's a good one. He still doesn't have an extension. Now he's going into the final year of his contract, which none of these guys still have extension. Oh, really? Yeah. Yeah. They didn't fire him, obviously. Right. Because they can get something in trade. New new president, sky had policy. He's trying to put his imprint on things and the truth. The matter is this. It's like they're talking about a deal. LaFlore is not one of the higher paid coaches. Like there are some head coaches in this league that have been hired in the last few years that make significantly more money than him. So he's got a point too. The question is, can we win without you? Or do we just suck it up and pay the extra six, seven million that you think you need? That's going to be one that they have to side. But it. Time is ticking. Like you're going to do this when. So I don't know. I think he stays, but I think we're wrong. All right. House. Bonyx 25 plus yards rushing. Harvey, 90 and Denver money line. That's 12 to one is the same game. But let's go. That's it. That's how we're playing it. I mean, I'll take the L. It'll be the second week of going against Josh Allen in the year that the AFC is the most wide open. It's been in his entire career. And he is the best quarterback in that conference. And here we are going against them two straight weeks. A week or team then they were a week ago. In a game they should have lost. He's more banged up than he was. I just can't. I don't think they have enough. This is disrespectful in Denver to think that somebody can go in there with Shakira and Cooks and Samuel. So the thing we didn't talk about was could James Cook actually cook in this game because Jacksonville shut him down. But both under defense is really good to against the run and healthy. I just think this is a bad spot for Buffalo. And it's this to me if I had to pick the narratives, Buffalo wins the narrative is oh my god, Josh Allen. This is your superhero. The other version is Denver just kind of controls the game beats them and then we turn into a they're not doing right by Josh Allen and we do that whole thing. Why did they get a wide? Yeah, this is their fault. They were great. Now Josh Allen season. All right. So we're going to go Denver minus one and a half. I honestly think that line is is I think this should be Denver by three. Okay, then definitely take it minus one and a half if you can. Next game, Seahawks seven over the depleted 49ers who are just losing guys left and right and are under attack by electromagnetic rays at their practice facility. Is it article over gone more viral? No, it's it's amazing. Kittle out. We've lost him. Trent Williams playing. But just as like I'm just not healthy. I don't feel great at all gave up six pressures last week. Yeah, I'm just not not doing good Seattle. Two week rest. Well, Major news today killed this team and yet the same. The Arnold comes out of nowhere with a weird abdominal injury middle of the day on a on a Wednesday. At practice. Come what do we come on? It's run with the Thera gun. It's listed as an oblique and Clint Kubiak said in his press conference who's the offensive coordinator that drew locks took a lot of snaps with the ones. Certainly and I was with our loft skid today in Bristol and I'm like, I don't know enough about like each injury. I'm like oblique. He's like horrible for a quarterback. Horrible. It hurts to run every throwing motion like it's it's as bad as one of the arm injuries. Well, that's what we have drugs. Trinks. That's why we have a guard on. I don't know. Can you get it? Oh, I have a question for you. House. Go ahead. Sam Darnold versus Drew Locke. How much of a drop off is that for you? If I have a better be fairly just going to run the ball and I barely asked my QB to do anything. So no joke. What do you think the line will be? Let's play guest the lines. What will the line be if Drew, Drew Locke is announced Saturday morning as the quarterback of the Seattle Seattle Seattle? I think it drops to Seattle four and a half. Yeah, five and a half four and a half. Yeah, I think we go to the biggest only a point and a half and like two and a half. That's the difference between Donald because I don't think for this game. So what are my ideas? You'll love this house was a parlay with this game. I'm out. Go ahead. Seattle money line under 49 and a half. No, sir. No, no, thank you. No, I mean, the back of it really we're not allowed to do this in the contest, but Seattle money line with Kenneth Walker to rush for 60 plus yards plus one on nine like that like general. Well, bet that I'm going to bet that. I'm not just the contest. No, but in real life, yes, I'm going to be talked out of it over the next four minutes. I just don't want to take the Niners. I don't see it. I don't I just can't we come in. We just did. We just did. Yeah. I thought you got dominated. I thought that game should have been like 30 to three and then in 74 yards of offense, it was the least. I'm doing it. Kyle, Kyle Shanahan offense has ever had. And by the way, if I'm Seattle and I'm their fans, like this is it, man. This is now lined up to win the Super Bowl, right? But wait, look who they beat. They have to beat. Let's say hypothetically, there are tribal Niners and then there are tribal Rams in their building. The absolutely beatable Rams team playing their third straight playoff road game, right? A team that they know really well. And then AFC, like, are they scared of any of those teams? Like they have the best, they have the best unit of any, I sound like I'm a Seahawks man. I'm just like, I just feel like this is laid out for them. They could easily fuck it up. But if I'm a Seahawks man, I'm like, holy shit, we might be able to win the Super Bowl, like for real. Our defense could just dominate the Niners this round. We go to the next one, we get the Rams at home, fine. And then we're going to put bone nicks in the Super Bowl or, you know, this Pats team that has the other team in the lead or Josh Almond, no receivers, like I like my chances against anybody. I want to try and make a case for San Francisco. I want to try. I want to see what you think about this. So first of all, it's not like Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers had an infinite amount of time to prepare for the Eagle's defense. And yet he'd looked at big fans, you know, right in the face and said, eat this big boy. Robinson deep over the top twice in the first half. Nope. Nobody had him on the bingo card. Yeah. Trick, trick plays. First sky bang is what that play was called. Yeah. I have some ideas for that one. How's the plan that tonight? The circumstances are so upsetting. Definitely. Just cancel this. No, they encourage that. But the question is he knows Mike McDonald very well now, right? He's very familiar with what Seattle's bringing to the table. He's seen it. They had over the course of the two games that they played 17 drives on offense that were non-need ounce of those 17 drives. Nine of them reached in there were inside the Seattle 40 yard line. 17 drives nine of which landed inside the Seattle 40 yard line. And they scored a grand total of 20 points over those those two games, right? There were missed field goals. There was block field goal. There were turnovers all inside that 40 yard line. So there is a demonstrated ability for San Francisco to kind of get into the scoring zone, but they couldn't capitalize in any way, shape or form. Again, I'm just trying to make a case here to make sure that we're thinking through. There's a couple more manifesto rules here for this. But where have the nobody believes in us team? That's the Niners and all flashing colors in the on. That's rule three, rule six. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they have a chance to win. I can see them winning. I don't think it's inconceivable because more because the Seahawks offense, I could just see thrown a third sandwich out there and it's just being like a 10 to 7 game in the fourth quarter or something. It was four months ago, but they beat the Seahawks in Seattle week one. Yeah, they've done it. I don't trust the Seahawks offense at all, right? If you can just like limit JSN a little bit, then they're going to have to run the ball and they have been running the ball and they've been doing it successfully. Like that's the case. They established the run. That's why I like them heading into this podcast because I can run on the Niners. But then there's the one end out gravitate toward the one pick that screws over the most gamblers and experts. That's a Seahawks tease or money parlay. That's the logical bet. Everyone has it. I might even have it right now. I might have already done it. People are just like, Oh, cool. I can move the Seahawks down to one and then I'll do other stuff. And that makes me nervous. Kyle Shanahan to House's point is a mad genius and whether or not you think he's good in the late stages of a game or a Super Bowl or a big spot. No one prepares and outskins these defensive coaches better than Kyle. So you're banking on Kyle and Purdy who's been outstanding the last few weeks with the exception of the Seattle game. And you just think that they're going to find a way. Again, this is not excess to nose. This is not this is purely your betting on people and you're betting on Kyle Shanahan to outcoach Mike McDonald and and you're betting on the nobody believes in his factor and the nobody believes in us. But I was there's one other thing you're betting on. Sorry to interrupt you. Yeah. The Mike McDonald we've seen in a couple of times the underwear gets a little tight for him. This is the first playoff game. Right. This is like the first playoff. I'll take the points and I don't know if I have 100% trust him anyway. San Francisco has playing completely free. They're fucking not San Francisco's not wearing underwear anymore. They're just fucking free ball in it. They're so. Bobby Salas swinging that that baby maker every which way. And they are. And I don't think there's a more of a nobody believes in us team that we've had that might actually be able to back it up in a while. And I would add, you know, they were pissed as hell at the leak. And by when I tell you furious at the leak that they chose ratings and the thought of a Chicago and LA market Sunday night. It's fucking outrageous. It's bad. It's doing what's right and what's fair and what seems to be integrity of the game. Health and safety. All this right. You would think you wouldn't want a team playing on six days when they can play. Another team gets eight days. So all that. But guess what, Jed, you work John Lynch, Salah, Shanahan, they get the players going. Hey, the league doesn't want us that the league doesn't think we're a big enough market team. They don't want us to be good. They, they were getting screwed again. We're getting screwed and the players, they hear that. They respond and they galvanize. Now whether or not that plays out in the field, that's a different question. But I know that the motivational tactics are at play here. Well, and when you go back to that last game, Trent Williams didn't play in that game, right? Nope. Yeah. Kitto played, but Kitto's been in and out all year and they, I do feel like they can replace some of his production. Pierce August is a stud. Get every time. He's good now. Pierce saw, Pierce saw this week. They're hoping Pierce all goes Fred Warner is not ready yet. He'll be ready. They're hoping next week. I don't know how. I don't know how, he might have won me over on this one. Well, I, I prefer with the points. No, the plus seven. I just, we have to make a, a, a pick. I like this. Uh, teams playing on a short week, like the 49ers against a team off the by nine and six against the spread in recent memory. Yeah. The, the third time playing, I feel like that's always gets weird in some way, but I like the, uh, I don't even think I mentioned this couple of weeks ago, because I was text Danny and Mina about the Seahawks. I don't even think they fully trust the Seahawks. Like the people that have watched them weaken, we got, I don't think they trust their offense. So you're throwing in this same darn old abdominal thing that we know about on Thursday, which is like, okay, they're not going to need him that much, but they're still going to need him. We know it. It's 48 hours. It's 48 hours. It's clearly something. It, not to be, not to be so obvious. So number one seeds, favorite by seven or more 21, 25 and one against the spread. Just, just keep doing it. I mean, we can just pound in the, in the part that I mentioned earlier that it is so lined up for Seattle, so lined up for the next couple of weeks that it almost makes you nervous. Well, maybe we take the points. Uh, for this next game, I have a featured bet. And it's a featured bet from a Fandals sports book because they have turned playoff mode on. Fandals got it all. They have same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in lives, offers to boost your winnings every game day. And my Patriots are playing and they wanted me to do a three-teamer, same game parlays, which I happily obliged. Here's why I landed because I've sat at the Pats winning it. We'll talk about the game in a second. Remundra Stevens and over two and a half receptions. More and more as the season went along, he's gotten better as a receiver. Drake trusts him. There's a couple where he's like in trouble and he dumps it off to him. They'll have a design wheel, Ralph Ramm. I just feel like he's getting three. And then Drake for 225 plus passing yards. Everyone's terrified of this Texas defense. After that Pittsburgh game, I have some thoughts on that. But anyway, that total price right now is plus 370. You can use your 30% SGP profit boost token. You can even hire a payout. Tail my bet. Trust me. Don't throw away the last eight, 19 weeks. Tail my bet. Make your own better another playoff game. The possibilities are endless during playoff mode with Fandall. All right. Patriots favored by three. No Nico Collins. It looks like likely out concussion protocol. You can't have a concussion and play five days later. That's nuts. I don't it's like the playoff concussion protocol. Let's not do that. Let's not do that. Here's why I became confident about the game, guys. Josh McDaniel will press conference this morning. Just raving about the Texas defense. These guys are the fastest defense we've seen all year. They don't make mistakes. We're going to need our best offensive game of the year to compete in this one. Just doing the butter upper team. I'm like, I don't believe that for a second. I think I agree with all that by the way. It's just so team. I think they, I think they think they can throw on them. And I just, I've seen them do this before. They rave about the other team. And then they meanwhile have five things up their sleeve. I think they're going to move the ball. How does New England score on this Texans defense bill? Drake May. Couple big deep shots to Bouté. We've seen the Texans get beat by deep shots that happened in the Chargers game. Yep. Riley Leonard. We saw Rogers. Yeah, it appears. We saw Rogers because a lot of times they're just rushing for it. We saw Rogers with opportunities to run where he didn't because he's old. Drake May will run. And I just think the paths are way better than the Steelers. That that Steelers team in hindsight, maybe we should have predicted this house when we actually made our picks. But the Ravens game was the Super Bowl for them. The moment they, and they still almost had a chance. It was seven six. They still have a chance. We were on the wrong side of the analysis. They just ran out of steam and, well, they just went for a good enough offensive. They were not enough enough. That's right. I was pushing you guys hard to pick the Steelers. That day for the Ravens game. I felt vindicated. And then I picked them again to beat the Texans. And I felt like an idiot. So the biggest issue with the Pats is the left side of the line and Campbell not being good. He's taken some heat. He got a little salty in an interview. But I also think that they can, there's stuff you can do. You can put an extra tight end on there. You can roll coverage away from Will Anderson. There's, there's things in play. Shraggs, what do you think? I've seen a Texans defense up close now twice this season. Seattle for a double header Monday night football. They lost the game, but they crushed Sam Darnold. I think I picked him off three times and they were in the backfield the entire game. And then I was at Monday night football. I am blown away by all three levels of this defense that I am going to give you the biggest hyperbole of all. This might be like the 2000 Ravens. They might not do anything on offense. They might just win games 13, 10, 16, 13. They might, we might wake up the Monday after the Super Bowl. And it's freaking Will Anderson on a float in Disneyland. Like this defense is that good. They're that fast. And I just don't see how, you know, I just don't see how the Patriots score enough to beat them. And the only way they lose to the Patriots, and I know they're a young team on the road playoffs, is that their quarterback holds them back and their offense just isn't good enough and they give the ball away. Because if they just protect the ball, I think you're underestimating this defense in a serious way. I think it's historically good. Definitely not underestimating. But my question is, this Texans offense going against the Pat's defense, which was really, really good last week in his healthy and is a different defense of the middle limbs. I don't think they could be able to run the ball in the past at all. Is that going to be a worse matchup than Drake May, who's been one of the best players in the league all year, a really good offensive coordinator, playing at home, cold weather that they're used to, Houston plays in a dome, all these other factors that go into it, that Houston defense would have to overcome all that. They were able to do that on Monday night. But that game, like Pittsburgh blew that game. They were in it. No, seven, six in the third quarter. In it, like Stroud was like broken. What makes you think Stroud's not gonna be broken this week? What do you think, House? It really comes down to how many plays do you think that Houston defense can make? Because I don't see a scenario under which Houston establishes any kind of offensive rhythm, whatsoever. The difference between the Collins. Agreed. It's like, oh, I will play some with Christian Kurt. Christian Kurt, because bounce around for three years, get out of here. I don't think we're properly rating the significance of Milton Williams. I mean, I know you Bill Simmons understands. I've been saying it all year. He left the defense and everyone could run on us. Yeah. So when he's in the lineup, 3.8 yards per carry for opposing running backs, that's the second best run defense in the NFL at that rate. They give up 83 yards again. The high running back rush when Milton Williams was in the lineup was 58 yards. And he got hurt in that game. That's how that running back got to 58. Yeah, Marx is over as 55 and a half. And I think it's dropped four yards during the week. Because people like Russ Marx. He has a season ending injury every game and then just plays the next week. Yeah, then he's fine. You have to he misses four carries because he's in the blue tent. Four to six care. And they have chubbets the bag of, I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball at all. And I think Stroud is going to be in a lot of trouble. Keep going, House. Well, that I mean, that's it. I just want to make the case for the New England defense and how the version of this defense can also the full participant in practice today. Thursday, Tonga's back. He was what how do you say his name Chris Kyrus? I don't know how to say it. Tonga, Tonga the defensive. Yeah, we call him Tonga. That's part of the, you know, the run defense as well. And I think that they can get a little bit of a pass rush going as well. They were in Justin Herbert's lap all all games on day night. They served out. Yeah, also shrinks some manifesto rules this week. And you just laid out one of the my favorites. This is the number one rule. But where have the looked a little too good the previous round team? This is textbook with the Texans D. Texans D was awesome. All season, right? It was one of the three back. They went up a level against this Pittsburgh team that offensive line wasn't good. They didn't had mechaft. That's about it. Rogers was slow. And that's as good as that's as good of a situation as a probably going to get Texans offense was not good against the bills, but they sack Josh Allen. I think nine times on a Thursday night. Yes, Thursday night. And they won. All right. That's a chief's chief season on the line in arrowhead. Texans offense, nothing special. Stroud made a couple plays. They eliminated the chiefs with their defense. Like I this defense travels. And what's interesting is I'm the travel but offensive lines do not travel that software. And they're listening to the Steelers game didn't travel. It's not going to travel in the wing. I think there's also we look at those logos. And I think you said this because I covered I was in Foxboro for about three of these. And the Texans always with that job and with whoever else used to go up there to Foxboro and at the visual round game on a Saturday night. And they just get the shit kicked out of them by the Patriots. And like we know that visual like it always happened. I would say this particular group of Texans, they have been to the final four of the AFC the last two years. So it's not like they're just this neophyte team that's going in with wide eyes like they've banged on the door. They took the chiefs to the wire last year and the year before that, they took the Ravens with Lamar to the wire. And if it was for a couple plays, they could have won that game. So they're not this group of just wide eyed guys that are like the old Texans where we don't belong in the same field as Brady. If anything, they've got more experience than this Patriots team when it comes to big games. I want to hear from BS the recipe on offense because part of the reason why I was bullish on the chargers last week, the case I made, yeah, that defense was excellent. And that was the first top 10 defense that the Patriots had faced in quite a while. Maybe the entire season, depending on the metrics you want to use. Yeah. And this defense is an entirely different class all together. Like one of the props that I'm already on is Drake May over 35 and a half rushing yards. I don't know if it's going to still be there. I like that. It might go even further up. Scramble yards of 40, of course. And those scramble yards are what were really the only thing available to Aaron Rogers. But the problem for the Patriots is because Houston doesn't blitz and they don't have to blitz. They just put four man pressure. They take away the middle of the football field because their linebackers can all go back. And you're saying to the Patriots, you know, who's going to beat us in the middle of us, the football field when we have that we're going to take that away from you. And I absolutely adore your Ramandre play. So that's one of the ways, right? Yeah. He's been built in. I like his yardage. I like his reception overs. But let me hear the recipe from your perspective. All right. The viewers probably noticed there was a little edit there is because the power on my street went out and the last power for like five minutes. Right as I was about to answer House's question about why I thought the Patriots could move the ball. And the Texans. I don't know if that was an open. I wish I had a better answer than this. I really believe in Drake Bay. And I felt what he did in the second half of that Chargers game against I think a good defense where he just kind of figured it out as the game went along. I think he got out all his like rookie, rookie C like play off rookie C leg stuff. And I don't think he was happy with how he played. All the dialogue all week was Drake's got to be like just like slightly nudging him. And I think he's going to love playing in this game against Houston. Like I think that I think he likes a shit. It's like, oh, this is the best defense. We've seen teams move the ball on Houston. And I don't the 2000 Ravens. I get it. You can that feels like a little bit over and over action. Triggs. It's like probably I know after after a steward's team that we've seen other defenses do that too. You know Browns. I just like the our defenses chances against their offense as much as I think the reverses. So they'll pass together. The McDaniels I have one crazy play. Henry will be involved. Drake will use his legs to save some plays. That's what Rogers couldn't do last week. He didn't save any plays. You know, I have a bet house that you're going to absolutely love. Over eight. No, this is a fandole prop. Okay, great. I'm going to love it. First half of the game is a tie. Why? Why the why? Patriots with no, this is a for ranger one of seven. First half of the game is a tie. So it's like three three six six zero zero seven seven whatever. Patriots win. 17 to one. Wow. Wow. So you're just rooting for like a three three first half for the three. And then do it. I thought those are great. Now you're talking about it. We got to do it. This is my favorite bet at the entire sec round. CJ Strauss to throw a pick minus 125. Fine. He doesn't throw a pick. I'll be disappointed. So shrinks is in on the Texans. You're in on. There's a bunch of manifesto rules against you, including the law of Lombardi. You're got a Lombardi bad offensive lines don't travel. Just throwing that one out. We're just throwing out the dome team outside. We're just throwing out CJ Strauss looked like he was having a like a legitimate meltdown last week. It's all going to be worse. Obviously I have to take the pass. But I think the line's fair and I like the minus three. How do you agree? I'm fine with it because I can't come up with on the offensive side of the ball for Houston away from them. We have 14 points. There's no rhythm. Like there's like, you know, I might just play like on the free game show. You guys watched Monday, Jalen Petrie, like a scud missile on every single. I mean, they were there was no second. They were amazing. It's crazy. It's, you know, it's all these guys. Yeah, Petrie was amazing. That's absolutely. It was like, it was like, Triggs went to the Boogie Night's set, turned the filming of Spanish pants alone as soon as he's like, you don't understand this, jerk digler. I was there. I was there. I think I as the best porn star I've ever seen. He was too. Am I Scotty in the corner? He would go doggy style. He goes straight out like really. He really was that though. He's a dirt road. He's right. I mean, Roller, he's rolling. Roller, Roller did say he was the goat. All right. Last game. The most fun one. And the one I actually feel the most strongly about bears bears getting three and a half at home against the Rams. Can I set the table for you and your listeners? Just go. Just go. Let's do it. So a little bit was made out of it. And Stephen A actually hit on it a touch. But like, that handshake and all that mother F mother F stuff from Ben Johnson did not go over well with the McVeigh tree, if you will, and around the league. Michael a floor is Matt LaFlor's little brother. He's the offensive coordinator for the Rams. And Sean's best friend in coaching is Matt LaFlor. So when you do the utter disrespect and the brazen locker room video where you're saying F the Packers, F that coaching staff and the social media team clicks go send it put out in the world. And then the next day when you've got 24 hours to really think about it to say, no, I'm fine with what I said. And my owner's got my back on that too. It's it's the stuff that I know you and Sal were talking about. It's like, it's the stuff that I live for. It's like, this is the the the WWE part of this where this actual personality is involved. And like, I think McVeigh wants to kick the snot out of Ben Johnson. And I think Ben Johnson, who's beaten McVeigh the last two times when Detroit played the Rams has no problem with that. I'll beat the snot out of you. Like, I love these two guys. Two young alpha offensive minds like going at it in this game. I can't wait. Wow, Triggs, we've got it legitimately aroused. I did. I'm right there with them. I love that shit so much and Shrek sees you just put the hairs on my neck. Now I did get a nice haircut. Put them on the back. Let's go. In a league where every coach hugs the other coach and they give the jerseys and they have heard trade effort. They're two alluses to the Steelers on a Monday night game and is seen there hugging Jalen Ramsey, Trayden, and Jersey. Like, that's the stuff that this is the opposite. These guys do not like each other right now. And I think that's great. What's your take in the game, Hass? So I can't get past the Bears Terrible Run defense. That's the starting point for me. I think for you, Stark. It might be the ending point as well. The ability of the Rams to establish the run. I think like all of this stuff with the weather and everything, we're just overdoing it. It's going to like use that as an element. But for sure, it's the case like the Rams can run the football. They have one of the best run block win rate percentages across. There are number two in that. All three of the guys, Jackson, he's playing at McClendon. It looks like they're getting Kevin Dotson back. I'm not going to be. I'm not hoping. That's a big deal. They haven't had it since the ad. He's big. He's big. He's huge. I mean, he's huge for their run. But they've been doing this two headed run monster here with some success over the last like, you know, six, seven games. And this is the way that they keep their defense off the field because they're defense since week 13. It's a kind of trash. Kind of, you know, I don't want it to be a shootout kind of scenario where the Bears have the ball in the fourth quarter and they need to go down to tie or win. At some point, it feels like that luck will run out, but who the hell can say when? Who can say when? Well, here's the thing. The Bears have won in crazy fashion. They have won games in the wildest ways. And the Rams have lost games in crazy fashion like that Seattle game, the San Francisco Thursday night game, the Carolina game. Yeah. So like it's a really. Do you say really? Polar opposites. It was the craziest. No doubt. The cold weather thing is interesting. So you could say, you know, it's going to be eight degrees in the Bears playing that. And that's just what they are. And like the Rams are a warm weather team. I would argue like, Korn went to Michigan, Karen Williams with the Notre Dame, Pukas went to, went to BYU, the Vante Adams played at Green Bay. Like I, Stafford's at the Troi guy. Like I don't know. He's at least an NFC North guy. Yeah. Like he, he's played in Chicago when it's cold. 100%. I don't know if I make it to pick up a deal. It is it. Bill, what do you think? Rule number eight. But where have any AG Q being cold weather? By the way, by the way, a finger, right? A finger that's real. Uh oh. Rule number 12. But where have any team that celebrated the previous weekend's playoff victory? Like they just won the freaking Super Bowl. That's the thing. There is one of those. We have one of those in this game. Rule number 13. Don't dismiss the nerd evidence that the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. So that goes both ways. Bears run defense that House mentioned. Can we talk about how bad the Ram Special Teams is and how that's going to be the demise of their season? It's a problem. It's an eighth of a weather. Has there ever been a better, better blueprint for getting your season fucked up? God. Um, I'm in on the bears. Wow. Stafford and freezing cold Ram Special Teams. Um, and the bears have just done this too many times that I'm tired of watching. I think they're going to be able to throw on them. Uh, the eight degrees thing is meaningful. It's going to be freezing cold. The Rams are a fucking dome team. And I know they have the profile of that can do outside and run the ball and all that stuff. But, um, I just feel like the bears are, it's like a legitimate Michael Meyer situation. You have to be up like 20 points before you feel safe. The Packers were up 20 points or they're up 18. They basically didn't go up to 20. Um, I just think this has all the makings. I can see it in my head. The Collins word to Rico. Oh, Mike, just going nuts. Just the shots of the bears fans and reason. They're like, crowd. Yeah. Bears fans just they loving it. Them cut into the Rams and them being like, Jesus Christ. I've never been this cold in my life. Like you say Stafford was from Detroit. Well, they played indoors in the trade. They played in the NFC. They played in Lambo and it's all from people. Get it. But they he lives in LA. I go back east when it's cold and it takes me like two days to, I'm just freezing the entire time. It's a real big, um, the Edwards thing really wears me. Yes. If you're a bear's tackle, they have their left tackle was a played a great season. He's injured. Is he definitely out? Right now he's trending that way. The hook is great. I like that. This could be Rams 27 17 and I could still get a hook at the end and steal one with the bears and the picks have been terrible here. And it'll be more fun to root for the bears. That's really my case. I the Rams go in road game last week, road game this week, road game looming next week. I think is in less time for Cisco can somehow win. So there is this other weird scenario where Rams in the hands of nine or nine and then all the all the other. Going in because they have they have extra rest for completely unnecessary. When the Rams won the Super Bowl that year, they were the five seed and the the Niners were the six seed. Same thing happened. They hosted them at the end of the championship game. Well, can we do worst case scenarios for each side? Because I think this is the perfect game to do that. Okay. Worst case scenario bet the bears. You can't stop the Rams running game. They just have the ball the whole time. Caleb passes. Reign out. Rams back. Puka makes his one 50 yard play that he broke three tackles. You can't get the ball back and you're like, we just want to get it to the fourth quarter and then it's 27 to 10 and you never had a chance. Right. Is that the worst case scenario for the bears? Just the Rams on the field 39 minutes of possession. Do you know what team scored the most points in the wild card round? The Rams like they scored. Yeah, they're going to score. Can the fear is when they come out and they just put up for you when they don't play good defenses. They average 32 and a half points. They scored 27 points and 11 of their 14 games. Their hands. Worst case scenario for the Rams. Couple dumb things happen. Stafford pick. Miss field goal, block field goal, some sort of kick return, something. And it's frigid and it's close late. And Caleb starts heating up and you have the Rams minus three and a half and you're like, fuck, you bring out that. I kick against this. This is this team has done this seven times. The bears done the seven times, the 19 week schedule where they've had these crazy comebacks. I just, I don't know how you can bet again. This feels like the last hurrah for them because then they go to Seattle the next week. And but I don't know that the hook. I wish this line. If it was two and a half, I'd like the Rams, the three and a half, I feel like it's an extra point house. What do you make of a few of the Rams assistance interviewing for head coaching jobs this week? Oh, distraction, distraction, distracting. So you have to weigh that against the, the Ben Johnson hatred, which, which one, which emotion is going to carry the day. They might hate him, you know, and obviously a football sense, not personally. Yes, yes, of course. But, but he has. Run the ball and done whatever he's wanted with Detroit's offense the last few times. They played also. Can we talk about the Rams last two months would be my other thing I wanted to bring up. Where yeah, Carolina last week, Arizona, week 18, whatever, the Atlanta game they lose, they lose the Seattle game by one. The Detroit game is back and forth and up, winning by seven, 41, 34, Arizona, the other game throw out. Carolina, they lose by three. Is there like a ton of evidence? This is a juggernauty kind of team at this point. It's a, it's a, it's a, would you know, a beatable team house? Of course, the Panthers almost beat them. Like they were one play away from winning that football game, the Panthers. So last piece of my case, they deserved it. They deserved it. Last piece of my case, what if Caleb went up a notch? What if he actually went up a level over these last couple of weeks and like, that fourth quarter was actually like, this might be closer to who he is now versus like this guy who takes two hours to warm up? Like what if he just comes out and he's really good in this game? What if he's just awesome in this game? It's conceivable, right? Yes. Of course. I mean, no, the Bears can run. I mean, they're, you know, they, they've demonstrated against defenses at least as good run defense wise as this Rams team, you know, well, if Ben Johnson gets any kind of a weakness, it's what he did to that Philadelphia Eagles. He's like, oh, I have an advantage here. Yeah. Let me just keep running the exact same play for 260 yards on the fucking ground. Let's see how that works out. And they just beat him. Last week, Coker, nine for one, 34 Macmillan, five for 81. And now, and the other thing is loved ones turned into an absolute monster the last four weeks. I just, I really like their passing offense. I think they can throw on the Rams and keep the game. Even if the Rams score on them, I think they can come back and score on the Rams. And my whole thing is like, if, if you feel like either team can win, you got to take the points, right? It's totally fine. I'm not, I'm not getting you right. The other thing you have going for you is like the first bet I made this week was Seattle Rams, Moneyline, Parley. And then I, and then I put Indiana with it as well. So, you know, you know how this is going to go. I feel like either team can win this game. Bears plus three and a half. That's my last one. Shrigs hates it. I hate it. I forgot one bet that I really love from the Texans game. Drake made to have the most rushing yards in the game plus four 10. Okay. More than Ramon. I could be like 47 yards could be the most rent, right? Rochy yards in that game, right? What is it? What are the plus four 10? I got it. I got to take it. Six six. Six. What's the over under in that game? What's the total? Well, that was one. This is my last thing talking about the picks over under 40 to half. Patriots Texans house. We could do Pats Moneyline under 51 and a half. The game would have to do 52 points to beat it. Why is he doing this? He hates these bets. No, no, no. House. What's the scenario? This is got a 52. It doesn't fucking matter. What scenario did the chargers and the Patriots not get to 31 points? How did they not get to 31? It doesn't. It is. Don't the turtles you're done? No, we, I'm, we, we do do turtles and we lose because it's one of the we lose. We have a 40 and 55 record in one of the sevens. I, I honestly, I think the parles like if you took out the parles, we're probably the end of your 500. Yeah. Like we were on the correct side many times on these, on these parles. Today's ringer one of seven brought to you by a fandal. We're picking four playoff games. House would not allow us to do any parles. We went against Peter Schrager's advice on all four games. I think is that true? No, I was with you on the Seattle Broncos minus one and a half over the bills. When the only cases don't go against Josh Allen and you can't come up with a single other reason to take the team. Sadly, I take the Broncos and I actually think that line should be minus three. Next one, 49ers plus seven over the sea hawks. We're all aligned on this one. Lines a little too high. Don't know about the startled abdomen thing. Haven't loved the sea hawks offense the last couple of weeks. And third time, these two teams have played, which usually leads to something wacky. Next one, Patriots minus three over the Texans. Some people are asking how are the Patriots going to move the ball? It's a Texans D. I ask how are the Texans going to move the ball in cold weather in New England? Gets Patriots D low scoring game. I just think this is a quarterbacks game at some point. This is Drake May versus CJ Stratt. Pick carefully and then last but not least bears plus three and a half against the Rams. Shrigs was horrified by this pick. How's kind of liked it? I think I talked them into it. Two things here. I think either team could win. I like the hook and I think the bears are going to be able to move the ball. So I actually like the over in this. I think what was that game you played last year house was the Washington, Philly game. What was that like 52 to 35? Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Cold weather game. I mean, it wasn't due to that. Yeah. Cold weather games. Cold weather games tend to bring that down. So yeah. All right. And and wait a second. Wait a second. That was today's where we want to send brother by Vandal. I'd subject to change. What do you got? I was going to tell you you're still on fire. We were talking about this two weeks ago. You're Peyton Manning, OJ Simpson, mailbag question was one of the you're still in your apex moment here. You're still on fire. Reapacks. Reapacks. That's exactly right. Irrani Peck's mountain in the reapex with the sliding doors and the whole thing. I'm telling you on fire, whatever you're doing, do you agree with that house? That it's the underlieb modern OJ would mail bag. The month I did it. Yeah. It was within the last 20 hours that I'm trying to catch. If the OJ the answer was if the OJ car chase happened again, who would be the athlete that should compare the most to how we felt about OJ in 1994 when that happened? And my answer after offering serena Williams and Charles Barkley. I forget who the third one was. Oh, Jason Kelsey. Kelsey. But the answer is clearly Peyton Manning. Fame being shocked that it's happening. My mom would care. I think he's the answer. And then how is he's like, they would break into even the Oscars. Yeah. Super Bowl Oscars name, name, name and event. Stranger thing. Caesar finale. Every event they would be interrupted. Peyton Manning is in. Who's in the driver with Peyton Manning? Who's is outcali? Is it Austin Kelly? The white Clark. It's five of the barbed hair. So actually, oh God. You got a little bit of hope is that here? Let's say that. Yeah. And so you agree with that answer, Shraggs? It was amazing. You're on fire, dude. Please, whatever you're doing, no carbs, no sugar. Just keep it going. You're on fire right now. You're kicking ass and I love being a part of it. I'm going to see him in three weeks. All that's going to hell telling you right now. Yeah. How's the Niagara going back for Bob Cousie's court retirement? It's a holy crime. Oh, naming ceremony. Yeah. Come with a holy cross and wood. It's the weekend of Super Bowl. We don't care. I get to get to the Super Bowl weekend. Yeah. It's the fucking news. I'll be back in time. You have no, we'll be back for the game. But we're not, we're not going to, I don't want to go to Santa Clara and have the electromagnetic rays being shot at me. I think I care about my tendons and my ligaments. No Super Bowl week for you at all. No Super Bowl week. Oh, that's a disappointment. It's going to be, it's going to be a holy cross weekend. Me have some Jacko. We're back. Jalen Coker. Yeah, we're maybe Jalen Coker will be our fourth house. Should we ask him? Yeah, catch us last week. It's either Emma Gordy Lockbound, one of the other shrinks. Cous is 97. It's unbelievable. Killing it. Like he was so old in the movie blue chips. And that was 30 years ago. He's the absolute best. And we like one of the reasons we love being in a holy cross 30 years ago is we had this koozy Heinssen legacy of it was just so cool that they won the NCAA title and I teed like it was a big part. And now it's like so many years ago. I don't even think the kids there probably even realized those guys went there. So we're going back. I'm going to miss you in San Francisco. We usually have a good hang during Super Bowl week. I'm a little sad. I mean, San Francisco Santa Clara. It's all over the map. I don't know what to tell you. You love Super Bowl, though. There's nothing more that you love than saddling up to a minority owner and a TV exec and then a retired quarterback just like being him just move around you live. I've seen you in action. You me Mike Tarrico and Bryce Young in a conversation last year. That happened last year. That was great. That was really fun. All right, guys. Oh, great. I mean, that rivals this this appearance by Lena Dunham on Netflix. I'm on with Lena Dunham and Bill Simmons. That's amazing. I forgot about that. Lena House. You're in Ringer gambling show on Saturday, Shrinks, any more TV this week for you. Yes. Friday morning. I'm on get up. That's tomorrow. Yes. In a couple of hours. Oh, Jesus. Go to bed, Shrinks. Thanks, guys. Thanks to Gihau and Eduardo as well. Don't forget I'll be back here live on Netflix on Sunday night after the Rams. Bears game. You'll be able to watch it. Listen to that on Spotify as well. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy the gambling. Great. See you guys. Must be 21 plus in president's leg states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus in president DC Kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem called 100 gamble or visit rg-help.com call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat and Connecticut or md gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling help line m a dot org. We're call 800 327 50 50 for 24 seven support. Massachusetts or call 877 8 hope and Y or text hope and Y in New York.