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If you're not already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay up to date on all news politics. All right, let's get into it. Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Moshtaba Khomeini said today that the country will protect its nuclear and missile capabilities and that the only place for Americans in the Gulf was at the bottom of its waters. The communication comes as President Trump continues to push for a broader deal to end the conflict. And after he posted on Truth Social, no more Mr. Nice Guy. Meanwhile, the war for which Trump sought no congressional approval hit its 60-day mark on May 1st. Under the War Powers Resolution, that's when the president is supposed to scale back military operations unless Congress signs off. And hanging over all of this is growing skepticism, especially on Wall Street about where this is all headed. Investors even have a new nickname alongside Taco. Now it's Nacho, not a chance or moves opens. It's a sign the market isn't buying that a deal with Iran is coming anytime soon. Defense Secretary Beat Hexeth testified before Congress yesterday fielding questions about the Pentagon budget as well as Iran saying if we need to go at it again to ensure that success we are prepared to in regards to more military action. Is the rhetoric ramping up or is it the same kind of posturing we've been seeing? I mean kind of both. I feel like Pete Hexeth just has one gear and he's always in it and it's fifth. Is that I guess I can go to sixth, right? I haven't driven a stick shift car in a while. But yeah, it was just more of the same. I think he fully got his butt handed to him in those hearings particularly by Congressman Adam Smith, especially on the timeline. Like getting him to admit that there was no imminent threat and actually tracking us from what happened with Operation Midnight Hammer and the quote unquote obliteration of their nuclear capacities. He had to move to a place where he said, oh well they still had nuclear ambitions. Duh. The Iranians are always going to have nuclear ambitions. The question is can they actually get a nuclear weapon and can they use it against us? So I thought that was a pretty embarrassing few hours for him in general. Shout out also Seth Moulton was great and Pat Ryan to especially talking about how we didn't protect our own military. Over there, we lost six soldiers in Kuwait at that base where they had no protections from drone strikes. So they were essentially in like a makeshift office that was put up and there were walls but no roof on it. Which as you know, especially as you're doing an air campaign that stuff can come in from up top. So I thought it was a bad day for Pete Hexeth. But the story that I cannot believe and is so important to the future of this war and this straight of horror moves is that apparently the Iranians are getting vessels through disguising them as Iraqi ships. So there is oil getting out of there and they've now just updated the thought was that they had something like 10 to 20 days left before they were going to have to start pumping and dumping essentially their oil that they had that's been moved up to four to six weeks which is a completely different timeline especially against the backdrop of this 60 day marker. And I've seen quotes and you know reporters catching various GOP senators and hallways about you know, well, where do we stand, where do we stand and they're getting frustrated at this point. I mean, this was supposed to be a strike operation similar to what we've seen before and people would be enthusiastic about that. But now you're going to drag on past 60 days. They're all looking at the midterm saying we don't want to go into a midterm election with gas at $4.23 and everybody saying that their economic situation is bad except if you own Google essentially and it feels like we're really at a continued stalemate and that the government is totally back footed at this point and possibly going to run up against a wall of their own supporters in the GOP caucuses. What do you think? Yeah, I think I think that's a decent summary. I've been spending all this time looking at big tech's earnings yesterday and I thought essentially big tech. I mean the earnings were staggering. Meta increased its revenues 33% year on year for a company that size and the others were up between kind of 18 and 28% and I was thinking that essentially what you have is our economy is now a giant bet on AI and all of these companies benefit from the tension and I think in a strange way what's happened is these companies have benefited from the fact that everyone's face is now glued to their phone to see who were bombing, what's happened, what he said. I mean I gotta think that the amount of attention and Meta showed this Meta's actual time or viewership went up, time went up, CPMs went up and I wonder if that's going to even anger the voting public more that there's a small group of companies that are doing so incredibly well. No one else can raise money. Their electric prices are going up. I have a friend in Florida who's a hardcore Trumper and the last time I had dinner with him and this is anecdotal but sometimes anecdotal can be you can draw some conclusions from it. He said oh yeah I'm out on Trump and I said well what was it and his red line was wrong. He said I don't I think these wars are stupid. So and it also is getting very confusing so people aren't even I think able to track the specific nuance of what's going on. All they see is we're still there and the basic premise that the Trump administration is up against right now is I believe that every day the war goes on it's seeds advantage to the IRGC because they went by surviving and it's clear we're not going to be able to accomplish regime change from the sky. It doesn't look as if the president has support to deploy ground troops that would be very risky. So I think their attitude is as long as and it looks like what you were saying I didn't realize that about the Iraqi vessels is they can offload that oil and maintain some sort of economic some sort of economic viability that every day this goes on they win and in a weird sense every day this goes on you know Democrats win. I mean this is just that that hearing yesterday where I agree representative is Molten and Ryan did a great job just makes the administration look terrible. They're unable to answer these questions. They have constantly zigzagged. They've constantly upended their own assertions and you know they've consistently backtracked on stuff contradicted everything they've previously said they seem to have painted themselves into a corner or Trump has and that is if he leaves right now it looks like America is when Muhammad Ali first started as a boxer and no one denied his strength his speed his footwork but he broke his job one of his first fights and people said oh it's over he has a glass jaw if America develops reputation for a glass job that is okay she gets real we lose some troops we start firing on their neighbors and they leave and they leave with the straight of hormones now determined by the RGC we look like a glass jaw nation in my view. There's a lot of people in America like I don't care we never wanted this thing get the fuck out I get it I understand the argument but the reality is that makes us look really bad and our golf neighbors say our golf allies go okay let me get this you broke it now we have to fix it at the same time if he continues to engage in the war it feels as if it just seeds more advantage to Iran I really do think this is a definition of a quagmire he has almost no good options here. Yeah just quickly I agree with a lot of that and actually I agree with all of it and wanted to add to it that the argument for quote unquote operational excellence that people had been making and also how genius the blockade was even though we're just blockading their blockade and there was free flow beforehand so you know. I don't know how well that works is an argument certainly never resonated with me but if it is true and it's being widely reported even foxes reporting that crude oil is getting out there is nothing that is working at this point that the blockade is smoke and mirrors at this point and I'm not sure what they're going to be able to walk away with and say oh this was worth our time American lives and the money you know Pete Hex had testified that we've only spent 25 billion estimates are in reality over $80 billion have been spent because he wasn't even discussing the amount that we put into repairing American military equipment that the Iranians have blown up. I mean they have done enormous damage and it's interesting last thing I want to say about this looks like JD Vance or JD Vance's team recognizes how bad this is and they've started leaking and they leaked to the Atlantic that JD Vance is concerned about our munitions supply which is something that I was not hounded off the set of the five because I still sat there for the rest of the show but they were jumping all over me when I said that we don't have enough weapons anymore that if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow we couldn't defend them and everyone was like what are trying how if there's anything we've had you know we have enough missiles well I don't know JD Vance doesn't think that we have enough munitions to be able to finish this job let alone to do all of the other work that's important for keeping authoritarians in check. So you know 2028 on his mind I guess but you know if JD Vance is back channeling to the Atlantic you know something is wrong. That's wild and then the thing that I'm curious to hear thoughts here the thing that I thought the most underreported story of the week was the UAE deciding to exit the OPEC cartel that is really that is a breakdown on the cartel it's that's the cartel coming apart and I think what they I think what they've decided is at these elevated prices we don't want a Saudi dominated cartel telling us not to sell everything we can in addition because the UAE has been the recipient of the most inbound projectiles of any nation in the Gulf including Israel from Iran they're like we need the money they're now going to the US and saying we might need a financial bailout of this shit keeps going and they're like no we're out we're not going to have what has been the kingdom is dominance of this setting production levels and what you can sell like sorry we need the money and we're out that is a really big deal I like the fact I hate cartels I hate monopolies that should over the medium and long term bring down prices but that is a real fracture in the Gulf States because their economic agreement around OPEC OPEC is arguably speaking the most powerful cartel in history maybe the exception if you could argue that maybe certain trade agreements are NAFTA but I don't think anything comes close geopolitically to OPEC and them leaving because of this conflict is I mean quite frankly it's again as I see it it's probably another one for the I or GC who is trying to atomize the rest of the Gulf destabilize it because of America's actions any thought on the UAE leaving OPEC well I was surprised to see it I mean this isn't my predominant wheelhouse necessarily but it seemed to be shocking everybody that was reporting on it and people who spend lots of time focused on this and I immediately went to what you just mentioned about the UAE sniffing around for a bailout which would totally defeat the purpose of having done all of this and I was thinking about it in terms of the legacy of Trump in the Middle East right and he always goes back to and rightly so you know how meaningful the Abraham Accords were there's hopes for a second round of Abraham Accords and I mean I doubt that Saudi is going to want to play nice with anybody frankly in the region after this or trust us as a partner in the same way since recall we're causing an enormous financial hit to them so if there were back channels to the administration about how happy they were that we were going after Iran I don't know if those calls are being made with the same level of fervor as they were before and it's a major I don't say destabilizing necessarily but and a major change at least for the region. Okay let's take a quick break stay with us. Indeed presents hires you can't afford to get wrong like warehouse operations manager. Where are the Fort lifts I sold them they were too expensive I got a great deal on these scooters though you expect us to move a two tonne pallet on a scooter it'll be fun just think of the core strength you'll build this is a job for sponsored jobs this is what happens when you don't sponsor your job and indeed so the next time you need someone to get the job done right get matched with quality candidates with an indeed sponsored job visit indeed dot com slash next hire and sponsor your job today. I'm Mitch first 2 time in the Brazil champion championship MVP and forward for the US women's national team before I went pro I graduated from Harvard with a degree in psychology which comes in handy more than you think any athlete pursuing greatness knows there's a certain mentality you have to have what people don't know is what that costs in my podcast Confessions of an elite athlete I sit down with the best athletes in the world and explore the psychology mindset and unseen battles on the path to greatness so take a seat and learn from the Confessions of an elite athlete on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Maria Sharapova and I'm hosting a new podcast called pretty tough every week I'm sitting down with trailblazing women at the top of their game to discuss ambition work ethic and the ups and downs that come on the path to achieving greatness will dive into their stories and get valuable insights from top executives actors entrepreneurs and other individuals who have inspired me so much in my own journey follow pretty tough wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. So moving on and what was likely Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair of the Federal Reserve the governing body announced it would keep its key interest rates steady in the three and a half percent to 3.75 percent range. The decision was a dramatic eight four split among members that usually doesn't happen that's that wasn't usual. Powell uses closing remarks to warn that legal actions by the administration risk undermining the Fed's political independence. Let's listen. You know my concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I want to note here this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism by elected officials. I've never suggested that such verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here. But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113 year history and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions. That piece of an institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries. It is extremely important not for the people who work at the Fed at any given time but for the people that we serve that the Fed remain able to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled into politics. I mean it's Jerome Powell the leader of the resistance. He's just always so classy and stand up and I thought Scott Besson was on with Larry Kudlow and talking about how Jerome Powell has smashed our norms. Like buddy do you know who you work for the guy who brought a lawsuit against Jerome Powell and was really interesting. So they dropped the suit against Powell so that Kevin Warsh could get through it because Tom Tellis was holding it up. Right. And Trump made an off handed comment. He's like no we didn't drop the lawsuit. So I have no idea what happens now. Right. Like maybe he's so pissed that Powell is going to hang around that he's going to start this up again. But it sends a very good message that even when it feels bleak and powerless against the behemoth of the federal government which has been weaponized in totality against average Americans against institutions against good policy that there are ways to stand up and I just think Jerome Powell is remarkably brave that he would do that in the press conference and just call the balls and strikes of it say of course you can verbally criticize me and the Fed we have a First Amendment right to do that but you can't bring frivolous lawsuits and think that I'm just going to retire to wherever it is that he enjoys spending his summers and get out of your way. This institution matters and I'm going to protect it for as long as I'm able to. Yeah, I think what the media got wrong here is they reported that there was an eight to four that four people dissented from the decision to keep rates steady and it's misleading because my understanding is three of the four dissenters didn't agree with the notion that they would signal that they were looking to cut rates at some point later in the year. So this was actually. Oh, so it's even worse. Yeah, this was actually the governor saying no we you know and then immediately Calc should respond and said the likelihood of a rate increase is gone up because essentially what the governors are saying is there's no evidence that we should cut rates also I think worse is lost a lot of credibility one when he said in his confirmation hearing he refused to acknowledge that Biden had been elected only that he had been sworn in and that he might in fact be politicized and be looking to cut rates but it looks as if the governors are saying no this the information here it does not lend itself to a rate cut especially with oil and inflation where it is this is impal you're right pal is you know threats needle between being forceful yet dignified and he does he does give everyone hope and I thought we said was really eloquent do you like Kevin Warsh. I think it's a substantive guy I gotta be honest I was just incredibly disappointed that the key component of the Fed is okay obviously want them to get it right but more than anything you want them to get it right or wrong and isolation of political influence and when he refused to say that Biden had been elected and would just say well he was duly sworn in it's okay and not like that I think he I think at that moment he would have been approved anyways he might have pissed off his boss the guy who appointed him but it's a 12 year appointment and I think at this point he's in no Republican was going to say I'm not voting for him because he acknowledged that Trump was actually fairly elected. Yeah the key component of the Fed chairman a close second to IQ is a fidelity to independence and right there he said no I've been weaponized now fortunately there is a wisdom of the crowds on the governor's these are I've known people have been fed governors and they're very smart and they're typically pretty large ego individuals we're not going to be intimidated by anybody. So I think it's actually a really outstanding body that does a lot of great work unfortunately they're not getting as much good data as they used to when you you know when you do away with the Bureau of Labor and Statistics they're armed with less information to make good decisions but my estimation of him has gone down dramatically I was relieved that he was going to appoint someone serious he is a serious person who's well qualified but when he got up there and said yeah I'm I'm Trump's bitch too I mean it was just sort of really disappointing and the political calculus was off he could I think if he'd said yes he was he was elected. I don't think Trump was going to weigh in and pull his nominee I just don't get it I was very disappointed at that. Yeah your thoughts there was this hot mic moment of Chuck Grassley so you can hear Grassley his mic still on and he's 92 this happens and he says to a staffer what would the big deal be if he said that Biden won 2020. Yeah what's the downside. I am amazed. And really appalled that and Blumenthal kind of pauses a little to like let people hear this because that's what a normal human being thinks like we're so far past this Trump came back and had an incredible victory it was still like the third smallest in modern history or whatever but it was a big deal that he won again and he's won all these voters and like who cares at this point it's and you know what Democrat is going to ask you every single hearing someone's going to say who won the 2020 election was a free and fair election. It's just anyway. Agreed so moving on the Florida House of Representatives have approved a new map of the state that could turn for congressional seats over to Republicans this year. The approval came just after the Supreme Court announced the decision to limit a key provision of the Voting Rights Act impacting a redrawn map of Louisiana that had served as the impetus for Florida governor Ron DeSantis to seek out a new map for his own state. Just what does this mean for the larger battle that seems to have broken out around gerrymandering every state for additional seats. Yeah that's really the main story especially when it comes to the Supreme Court ruling yesterday on the Voting Rights Act when it wasn't a fully striking down section two but chipping away at it. The net impact for the midterms is going to be pretty minimal. It could it could honestly even be like zero or one seats. I think the maximum that anyone who knows what they're talking about is said is four seats if southern states get really aggressive about it. Jeff Landry the governor of Louisiana is trying to suspend the election I think it was but ballots have already gone out and they're running up against schedules which are happening very quickly and if ballots are already out. Are you know folks who live abroad mill people who serve in our military then you can't be changing the rules and redistricting. This is really more of an issue for twenty twenty eight and beyond and it's going to push liberal and conservative states to essentially go nuclear. And a Democratic representative Terry Sewell said you know. Okay so California fifty two seats. Illinois seventeen seats Kathy Huckle has already posted that you know she's heard the call and that if you have to. Redistrict New York so that it's all blue even though we have you know Republican seats here then that's what you've got to do because that's the level of warfare that were engaged in at this point and you know this is something that is deeply unpopular with Americans gerrymandering they they don't like it that's why you had independent commissions bipartisan commissions all over the country that are supposed to draw these maps and no one likes to see you know the shapes of some of these districts are just ridiculous right because you but I think it's going to get very ugly and very political but relieved that it is not as much of a problem for twenty twenty six as some people were saying yesterday when the ruling came down. Yeah it this is like a job for a I here here the here's the number of people here's the lay of the map we want something that represents best represents people and these draw our districts for us it's gotten it has gotten out of control and it's worth mentioning that Democrats have proposed to D gerrymander and Republicans have blocked it every time they should wide ban yeah so it feels like this would be kind of if there is a change in leadership and Congress in the White House it feels like this could be a pretty good thing to not run on but immediately to say we need to D gerrymander bipartisan commission here it comes folks and of course Congress and Senate will hate it but it feels like that would have a lot of public support and be very be very hard to defend not supporting it. It goes in the bucket I don't know if you saw John Ossoff release this incredible it's not an ad because it's over four minutes this video yesterday about who's really taking advantage of Americans and keeping you down and it's targeted at the pharmaceutical companies incredibly well done and it's talking about the part that he played in getting reform so that we could negotiate drug prices through Medicare Party and cap costs at $2,000 per senior and so that's great for John Ossoff who's running you know he's in a tough race as a swing state Democratic senator but this is an issue that goes up there with corruption. We have an oligarch class here and there are no guardrails to stop them from just continuing to fill their coffers and I think that the argument about gerrymandering falls into that category too that there are you know a select few people that are making decisions as to whether your vote really counts and what kind of representation you should have and maybe this gets so bad and Democrats go so nuclear on this that Republicans will support the nationwide ban but you know AOC said you would gotta be as maniacal as possible until we get our ban and I think you're right it should be adopted into people's platforms as they look towards 2028 for sure that they're going to fix this no one likes it. Yeah we have a tendency to focus on the outputs instead of the atmospheric or the structural changes we need to make and it's the boring stuff that moves the needle and I think we're going to end up with extremists on both sides in a dysfunctional system until we do both de gerrymander and also get rid of Citizens United I increasingly believe that the 900 billionaires that are responsible for 20% of all pack giving it's actually probably 300 of my bet two thirds on interested in giving money. What people don't realize though is I think it's over 50 60 percent of total influence because if you're a union pack you just get money to the union guy whereas if you're a billionaire you can be very targeted and surgical about the money you give and these people have totally disassociated from common Americans they don't use the airports the police the school system. The health care system so the people swang our elections no longer have a vested interest in the well-being of Americans and that's why I think you see the monetization of healthcare of technology of education because the people who have a disproportionate amount of influence don't really have an invested interest in in America was studying with my son last night about the rail system and Chongqing China and it's such a marvel of creativity infrastructure long-term thinking and I'm like we don't think that way anymore because at the end of the day and investment in infrastructure is an investment in the middle class and it costs money and it requires long-term thinking and nobody gets really rich off of it what it does is it shaves three five ten minutes off of everyone's day and gives it back to middle class people to spend time with their families or make a little bit more money or be a little bit healthier a little less stressed and the round is the people to get to decide make these decisions aren't really interested in that because they've they've got their own way to get to work to and from work but it was let's move on speaking of elections main governor Janet Mills announced today that she'll drop out of the Senate election in Maine. I'm curious to hear your thoughts are leaving the midterm race a faceoff between incumbent Republican center Susan Collins and Marine Corps veteran and Democrat Graham Plattner Jess your thoughts. It's a really big deal. This was you know one of the ground zeros for the kind of battle between the old guard and the new progressive left Janet Mills didn't want to run Chuck Schumer recruited her and Kirsten Gillibrand lot of pressure for her to do this seventy eight years old I think she's already pledged to serve one term but basically no one else wanted to do it from the kind of more moderate or center left wing of the party and it will be a big test for Graham Plattner's kind of politics obviously he's had a lot of you know scandals with the Nazis had to and past comments you know but he has clearly done a good enough job you know vis-a-vis the people of Maine or the Democratic primary voters to explain himself and his evolution and I was glad to see that Schumer and Gillibrand released a statement saying that they're going to be backing the nominee because we need to defeat Susan Collins here but Janet Mills cited and you know she's been losing in the polls by like 30 points for quite a while but said I can't raise money and I spoke to a DC fundraiser who told me the same thing about it that they could not get people to come to a Janet Mills fundraiser and candidates are pulling in tons of money like they're pulling in Q3 money in Q1 like James Tallarico John Ossoff Sherrod Brown Mary Patola in Alaska in Iowa Rob sand for instance running for governor you watch his ads you don't even know if he's a Democrat or Republican he's a complete marvel and Janet Mills couldn't get people to give her five bucks let alone big donors that you know you could bundle their money and so big test for the big tent I guess going forward but I'm excited to see how it plays out and I think it's good that she dropped out frankly versus going into an ugly primary people going out and voting her getting trounced gives us time to coalesce around the nominee. Yeah there's few senators I would enjoy saying get kicked out office more than senator Collins I think she's such an unproductive narcissist I'm so sick of her supposedly really struggling with you know whether or not she should approve very concerned right yeah I don't yeah I really yeah he said he's incredibly sexist oh he's against abortion and I'm just so concerned I will do whatever the fuck Trump asked me to do she just loves the attention of pretending to be concerned and thinking through in senator Collins we know exactly how you're gonna vote so stop it's just performative so performative yeah I mean it is an advantage in the Trump era that you know she can call him up like they were going to send ice to Maine and she called and said could you not do that and then they didn't so that that is a bonus for mainers but in reality they're economically suffering they want something new and grand platinum if anything is something new something new let's send on a lighter note president Trump is now putting his face on us passports let's watch what a O. C. had to say about it when you make up Donald Trump putting his face on all these on the new U. S. passports it's like it's giving monopoly money it's like you know I think he's jealous that you know Mount Rushmore got a page you got four presidents in there and he's probably saying why don't I get a passport page and I think I'm I think it's also like all these lower level people competing for his love and attention as well. I was in a complete state of panic because my older daughter needs to renew her passport and I was like there is no effing way that we're going to have a Donald Trump passport but it's only for people who go in person in D. C. and for a select amount of time so if you're listening to this and you're worried about it you don't have to have a Donald Trump passport but apparently he now thinks he's above even just like great American presidents like George Washington and Lincoln had nothing on him. He's like most powerful people that ever lived like Napoleon Alexander the great Julius Caesar guy I mean I don't know if he's just messing with people and having these kind of diluted thoughts or it's really what he thinks but I would air towards this guy who hasn't gotten you know much pushback let's say there's no reason to think that he doesn't think that he's a little bit Alexander the great. Yeah reminds me in some Gulf States and some developing nations where you see the leader who was not was not freely a democratically elected has their picture everywhere and I think a decent talking point for a Democrat running would be I'm the bleach to this stain and I promise within 90 days of being elected to the White House I'm going to sign an executive order to remove his image from everything remove his name from everything and also I promise to never use his name I will reference the previous administration but I'm going to give you visual presence or visual relief and more time back with your family. He's the stain I'm the bleach. I'm in. Let's leave it there. Thanks Jess. Before we go another reminder that we're on substack subscribers are getting all those ad free episodes we're hanging out there are lots of sub stack lives happening we have a newsletter it's called the Monday rage make sure you subscribe find us at raging moderates dot profg media dot com that's all for this episode thanks so much for joining us today. Yeah.
