Big Night at MSG: St. John's vs. UConn
45 min
•Feb 6, 20262 months agoSummary
Mike Francesa previews the St. John's vs. UConn college basketball matchup at Madison Square Garden, analyzing both teams' strengths, weaknesses, and tournament implications. He also discusses the Super Bowl and broader college basketball landscape, emphasizing UConn's elite status and St. John's need to prove consistency against top competition.
Insights
- St. John's inconsistency in guard play and perimeter defense remains their biggest vulnerability despite recent improvements under Pitino's adjustments
- UConn's three-point shooting efficiency (47% on season, 50%+ in recent games) is their primary offensive weapon and the key variable in tonight's game
- NIL money is now a critical competitive factor in college basketball recruitment, with programs like UConn able to attract elite players away from traditional powerhouses
- The Big East's overall weakness means both St. John's and UConn's strong records don't translate to top-1 seed consideration compared to other conferences
- Coaching adjustments and game management (foul trouble, lineup rotations) will be as important as talent in determining the outcome
Trends
NIL compensation driving player transfers across conference lines (e.g., DeMerry to UConn, guards moving from ACC to Big 12 schools)Small-ball lineups becoming standard in elite college basketball programs, requiring versatile forwards who can defend multiple positionsThree-point shooting consistency as primary differentiator between championship-level and tournament-level teamsIncreased emphasis on transition offense and pace-of-play in modern college basketball strategyConference strength disparity affecting NCAA tournament seeding and perception of team qualityVideo preparation and detailed scouting becoming standard competitive tools for elite programsFree throw shooting and interior finishing efficiency as underrated factors in close gamesDefensive intensity and physical play as hallmarks of Big East basketball culture
Topics
College Basketball Tournament SeedingThree-Point Shooting EfficiencyGuard Play ConsistencyNIL Compensation ImpactDefensive Perimeter CoverageFoul Trouble ManagementTransition Offense StrategyInterior Finishing and ReboundingBig East Conference StrengthCoaching Adjustments and Game ManagementFree Throw Shooting PerformanceSmall-Ball Lineup EffectivenessPlayer Development and ImprovementConference Strength DisparityOffensive Rebounding Execution
Companies
People
Rick Pitino
St. John's head coach making strategic adjustments to lineup and guard rotations to improve team consistency
Danny Hurley
UConn head coach who has built on Jim Calhoun's dynasty, currently leading team to potential championship contention
Silas DiMeri
UConn backcourt player stepping up as team leader with strong three-point shooting (47% on season)
Savannah Guthrie
NBC Today Show anchor and Olympic host whose 84-year-old mother was abducted, affecting network coverage
Jim Calhoun
Former UConn coach whose dynasty-building at the program is considered greatest in college basketball history
John Thompson
Former Georgetown coach whose legacy program did not endure like UConn's post-Calhoun
Quotes
"UConn is clearly a championship-level team. Number three in the country. One loss, 18 straight wins."
Mike Francesa
"St. John's is going to have to raise their game to win tonight. They're going to have to play better than I've seen them play this year to win tonight."
Mike Francesa
"If you let them shoot 50% from three like they did at Creighton, they're going to win by 30."
Mike Francesa
"The Big East is just not that tight. It's weak underneath these teams. So their records are better."
Mike Francesa
"This is a chance for them to show that they have made it back to a level where they can go into the NCAA tournament and win two or three games."
Mike Francesa
Full Transcript
It's the Mike Francesa podcast on the Bett Rivers Network. Hello again, everybody, and welcome to the Mike Francesa podcast, part of the Bett Rivers Network. We come to you on this Friday before Super Sunday. Obviously, a lot going on this weekend. And here in New York, it will start this evening at what will be the highly anticipated showdown between St. John's and UConn in a sold-out Madison Square Garden. And UConn thinks of Madison Square Garden as its home away from home. They bring a lot of people. They would sell more tickets if they were available. The crowd, and remember, this is St. John's home court, and they play there more prominently now with Patino here than they did in the old days. This will be a St. John's crowd, but there will be plenty of UConn fans in the building. If I had a guess, I'd say it's probably going to be like 11,000 St. John's 7,000, 8,000 UConn fans, 8,000 because it's going to be a sellout. Very interesting game and a great way to start this Friday night on what is a big weekend. The Olympics, if you're into it. And let me for a second say this because I haven't mentioned this this week and I was remiss. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Savannah Guthrie who has got to live through this nightmare. And, you know, NBC has the olympics they have the super bowl this weekend so it's a huge weekend for them uh and they obviously have to delicately deal with this story uh with their today show anchor and their olympic host dealing with the fact that her 84 year old mother was abducted and we are watching this unfold in front of our eyes and thinking about what a nightmare it would be for anybody so So let's hope for a speedy and positive solution to the whole situation, which is just hard to watch. It really is. So we send there our best. Super Bowl, there hasn't been great anticipation. The number is going to be great because I'll tell you, if you saw the weather forecast, it is going to be so cold in a lot of the country, the Midwest, the East. It's going to be wind chill about 10 below zero in New York, worse in Boston, bad up and down the East Coast, everywhere. So people are going to be like, hey, let's just sit down and have a nice day, invite some people over and get ready for a Super Sunday. So the number is going to be enormous. There's no reason to think that the game shouldn't be fairly competitive. Both teams did a lot of winning this year. And I think Seattle's the better team. I think the defense will be the difference. I think the pass rush will be the extreme difference. And I think Sam will stay away from the mistakes that have plagued him in the past. They have not plagued him in the postseason. And I think Seattle will win. I've already said that. Now, to tonight's game. And I've waited for weeks for this game. Everybody has. St. John's. St. John's had a very rocky start to this season. I go back to August. And I was a culprit with everybody else. mainly because I listened to the head coach. I see a lot of them in Saratoga. And he was so high on the team and so high on his new players. And I remember asking him two questions. I said, have you got some guys who can shoot threes? He said, yes. I said, do you have a point guard? He said, absolutely. He was wrong about that. They don't have a point guard. He knows that now. And he's made the adjustment. And it was a bittersweet one because it took them a while with this team. They got off to a terrible start when they were preseason five. And a team that people thought could win a championship. And now they're back to playing exciting ball. But again, we haven't seen them challenged by this level of team. They have to prove that they can raise their game. And they're going to have to raise their game tonight. Because they're playing one of the elite teams in the country. I think there are probably eight or nine teams I can go back and forth on Purdue that can win the championship this year I do not include St. John's in that group I think they can have a good run I don't think they're a championship team I think they have too many questions to answer too many inconsistencies too many problems that can crop up at a second they're not consistent and I'll get into that in a minute and they're going to have to play their best game of the season to win tonight because UConn's that good. And UConn, Danny had been very unhappy with his team because they weren't showing a killer instinct. They went seven straight games, and a good indication is they weren't covering any points. They played two overtime games. They had an overtime game with Providence. They had an overtime game with Villanova. They should have lost. They didn't lose any of them. They've won 18 games in a row. They've only lost once this year, and they weren't at full strength when they lost Arizona early in the season. And Arizona's still unbeaten. Arizona Duke which is playing unbelievably now Illinois which is playing unbelievably now Michigan which is cooled off but still very dangerous especially when their point guard who they imported from Carolina when he's on his game they are lethal Houston got to put them right there Iowa State got to put them right there UConn And I put Kansas there if their star is healthy. Now, he's played on a tricky knee. He is considered maybe as good a prospect as we've had entered the NBA draft in a decade. But he's in and out of the lineup a lot. Can he play the rigors of a tournament? Can he play Friday and Sunday? Can he play Thursday and Saturday? I don't know. But when he's in the lineup, they're a championship-level team. UConn is clearly a championship-level team. Number three in the country. One loss, 18 straight wins. St. John's, though, with some terrific adjustments by Patino. Has he answered all the questions? No. Can he answer all the questions with this team? Remains to be seen, especially against the level of opponent they're going to see tonight. St. John's is going to have to raise their game to win tonight. They're going to have to play better than I've seen them play this year to win tonight. Otherwise, they won't win. Because UConn has flipped the switch. Silas DiMeri has stepped up to be the player that they knew he was going to be. His last three games, he's leading this team and playing the backcourt as well as anybody in the country. 17-8, 15-5, 15-6, 9-14 in the last three games from three. he shoots 47% from three on the season. And UConn plays a small lineup. St. John's is going to go with the three forward lineup, which they went to after the Providence loss. And rightly so, because Mitchell gives them the versatility that they need. And he really is a point forward, except he can't be in the game at the end of the game, which I'll get to in a minute. There's a lot of keys tonight. There's a lot of things to look for. UConn has been installed, depending where you are, as a two-and-a-half to a three-point favorite. I think three will be the popular number by tonight. There'll be plenty of UConn money. St. John's absolutely can win this game tonight. They've won eight games in a row. A lot of times having to come from behind to do it. They played badly in the first half against DePaul. DePaul's defense was terrific. DePaul's very much improved. and their defense was very good until St. John's started going to the backdoor. Cuts have worked very well, but they really in the first half had a big problem. St. John's has had many games this year where they've played badly in the first half and come up big in the second half. They've also had some games this year where they've fallen apart in the second half, which they did not do at all last year, and Pitino teams usually don't do. They beat Seton Hall, but they were lucky to beat Seton Hall. Seton Hall took them out of their game, and if Seton Hall had made free throws, they would have beat them that night. there are games where St. John's looks awful because they have some real inconsistencies and flaws in their game. This is a team that I believe can raise their level. And if I'm wrong, they're going to lose tonight, but I think they can win this game tonight. I really do. And I felt that way. And have I been chastened by the last two games UConn has played? Yes. You cannot let UConn go out and shoot 50% from three. Of course, they're going to shoot a ton of threes. They got four guys who bombed the three up. And if you let them shoot 50% from three like they did at Creighton, they're going to win by 30. And if you let them shoot, you know, until late in the game, 50% against Xavier, they're going to win. And 60% from the floor and 50% from three. They're going to win. They're going to win big. There are four players who will shoot the three. Three of them shoot it well. One of them is very up and down. And how he is handled tonight is a huge key to the game. I expect Demary to play well. He's a really good player. Caravan's been around forever. He's the glue. He's not going to put up 25 points, but he's going to be there to make plays late in the game. Make a three, get a rebound, make a play. We know that. He's been through these wars a million times. Mullins is coming on, and I think Mitchell starts on Mullins tonight. And Mullins, you've got to deal with his shooting. He can really shoot from three. And then, of course, you're dealing with ball. And ball will put up a lot of shots. And he can beat St. John's off the dribble, and he can also make threes, but he also, for the year, is shooting 28% from three. And he can shoot them out of a game as well as shoot them into a game. But whether he gets 10 points tonight on, you know, three for 11 shooting or gets 24 points tonight because he's getting to the foul line and making threes, it could be the difference in the game. UConn is a terrific team with a lot of talent. brilliantly coached, a brilliant program, brilliantly coached by Danny. They can win it all. There's no question they're an incredibly gifted group. Are they anywhere near what the team that won championships do not compare them to the team that won championships? They're not in that league. They are not close. They don't have that size. They don't have those players. They are not in that league. Remember, they had two players drafted at the top of the draft. And Castle's a star, which when they put Castle in the lineup, that team took off. and became one of the best NCAA tournament teams of all time Never challenged After the slump the last two games they been very impressive but they've been impressive because they're making outside shots. Now, they're going to start the three-guard lineup and Caravan and Reed, and how this game is called tonight is going to be an enormous factor. Big East games are very physical. St. John's is very physical. The game between UConn and St. John's has a tremendous amount of pregame intensity. There's tremendous intensity between the two coaches that don't like each other. They are very competitive with each other. UConn didn't like that St. John's beat them up last year, so they wanted to get revenge. They didn't like it at all. I was at the games at the Garden. They did not like it at all. St. John's, if you remember, the year before, the last close game, and that's why St. John's should have been in the NCAA tournament two years ago. The last close game that UConn played was a game against St. John's in the Big East tournament that I was at. St. John's lost by five. Now you talk about that. Nobody was near them that close at all the rest of the season. Nobody came that close. They blew everybody out. That's why St. John's should have been in the tournament because they could play on that level. Now, this team, after the Providence game, Patino went and thought long and hard and did something that I'm sure he was debating before that. And that was putting Mitchell in a three-forward lineup with Zuby and Hopkins. Hopkins has sprung himself out of the doghouse now. Jackson has not yet sprung himself out of the doghouse. He can get in there very quickly. And that's a big key tonight also. But does St. John's impact the game with their bigger lineup and make UConn put a bigger player in the game? Because Reed, who is very prone to foul trouble, and he's got to be on the floor tonight for major minutes, so does Mitchell. Mitchell was in foul trouble in the first half against DePaul. That's why St. John's struggled as much as they did. A big thing in that game last Tuesday night in Chicago was this. St. John's was playing miserably and the game was very very intense defensively and they didn't call a lot in the second half they called everything and St. John's scored the last five points of the half to take a 29-28 lead and that turned out to be a very big factor because they were able to use that as a springboard come out hit a three and boom and take off Mitchell's got to be on the floor tonight for 35 minutes he won't be on the floor in the last minutes because the thing about Mitchell, who is a tremendous open floor player, can get to the basket, can handle, is a great open floor passer, really is a point forward in that regard, especially in the running game, which is where I like the St. John's offense the best. I don't like it in the half court. I like it when they're in transition. They need the score off transition. but Mitchell cannot shoot. He doesn't shoot threes. He doesn't make free throws. So he's not going to have the ball in the last minute of the game. He's not going to be on the floor offensively. It's going to be an offense defense thing. The last minute of the game, he's going to be off the floor because they'll follow him and he doesn't make his free throws. He's a 50 something percent foul shooter. And he's got to finish around the basket. He gets so many opportunities for dumps, dunks, for putbacks, for tip-ins. They all do. Hopkins, Zuby, him. They have got to be far better this evening at making those shots around the basket that are very makeable, whether they're off offensive rebounds, off tips, or they are just drives to the basket when they have numbers. They miss way too many of those. That and St. Jones has got to get some consistency from the guard play. The way this has worked is Patino has looked at his guards and then reacted. He wants to give Jackson a lot of minutes, but if Jackson annoys him, Ying, he's out, Darling's in. Darling's interesting from this standpoint. Down the stretch, he makes his free throws, but so does Sellers and Jackson. Darling can sit on the bench the entire game, can sit on the bench the entire game before, and still come in and play well, and still come in and make meaningful plays. That's his gift. Is he up to playing these guys head up in this game? No, he's not as good as the UConn guys. He doesn't match up with them. I don't think he'll get a ton of minutes tonight. And I think Jackson has to play, And I think really Rick, I hope in this game does not yank Jackson the first time he misses an assignment on defense or doesn't box out or lets this guy drive to the basket for a layup. Rick is prone to getting him right out of the game. I think tonight you got to let him play a little bit because they need his talents and his scoring. He's not a playmaker. People call him the point guard. He's not the point guard. he's not the point guard as you hear Taylor she was lying down here Mitchell in the open floor in the running game is the guy who's going to distribute the ball he's a terrific open floor passer Zuby might be the most improved passer in the country and I think this is going to be a Zuby game tonight early for this reason I'm sure the Patino game plan is going to be to go down low when they're in the half court set. They're going to run when they can. Of course they want to run. And I really think Sellers has got to take an aggressive stance and shoot the ball in the transition game. Don't wait, shoot it. He is a big time three shooter and I like him to shoot it in transition and he needs to do that more. I don't mind if he takes extra threes. He's the guy that should take extra threes. He's the best three point shooter. Sanon has been a disappointment. He's not going to play a ton of minutes unless there's foul trouble. The bottom line is they're woefully inconsistent in the backcourt. The three guys, if everything goes according to plan, are going to play 34, 35 minutes tonight. Hopkins is going to have a double-double. Zuby's going to have a double-double. and Mitchell's going to fill up the box score and do the things he does. Offense, defense, block shots, do all the things. Pressure the ball, make good plays, get assists, get points, get rebounds, do all the things he does. It's a shame he can't shoot because he'd be in All-America. Those three guys, if it was the best laid plans, would be on the floor 35 minutes tonight. He always takes a wait-and-see approach with the guards because he doesn't know which one's going to show up. He really doesn't. He's going to mix and match. That's what he does. And he's going to have to do that. You know, you got Sellers and you got Jackson. You got Darling and you got Sanon. And you can throw another guy in for a couple of minutes. They have three other guys they use. One big, two small. but you won't see a lot of them in this game unless something's off kilter. You're going to see those four guards and you're going to see the big three and they want a big three to play major minutes. And the question on the other side is, can Zuby and Hopkins, going inside, going in the lane, getting offensive rebounds, Can they put the pressure on Reed, who has got to be a presence in this game for them, who can get in foul trouble easily? And foul trouble will plague UConn if Reed cannot stay on the floor. They need Reed on the floor tonight. Now, I can see them having to go to another big and taking one of their smalls out. That could happen very easily against St. John's. Or St. John's could think they have to go smaller at one point. But I don't think that will happen because Mitchell is so versatile, he can handle a guard. he has the ability to defend pretty much anybody that's his strength so i don't see that as a negative foul trouble for mitchell could be a negative as it was in the depaul game so he's got to be on his game his passing like i said is probably as improved as any player in the country but i want him to be more aggressive in the low box and look for his shot originally, but make it the right move at the right time. So many times they take awkward, off-balance inside finishes and you say, how did they miss that shot? All of them, whether it's Hopkins, who also has to be better on the line, Mitchell, who can get five or six really great looks inside, a couple of dunks, a couple of layups, and go one for six. I mean, and have you pulling your hair out. This team can be woefully inconsistent, but one, a couple of things you know. They are going to be relentless on the boards. They are extremely physical and extremely athletic, and they will never, ever quit. Ever. these teams play hard and nobody plays harder than St. John's. Nobody. You can never say they don't play hard because if you don't play hard on a possession, you're on a bench. That's all there is to it. These two coaches will drive you mad because they'll be on the officials. That's why I hope it's a good crew. They'll be on the officials the whole game. They need officials who just say, shut up and sit down and don't have them in their ear and have them affecting calls because they will work these officials to death. They're both, both up on every play. You'd like to see them just have a little, you know, two minute boxing match and then they can both go sit down, but it's never going to happen. But it just adds to the color of the night Two of the great coaches Danny one of the great coaches of this generation rick one of the great coaches of any generation and danny has taken his rightful place he's built it he's furthered a dynasty that was built by jim calhoun which to me was the greatest building job in college basketball ever done what he did at uconn and it has showed up and it has endured. Georgetown hasn't endured without John Thompson. UConn, the way it was put in the ground, has endured past Calhoun. Enormously impressive. Now, in this day and age, what a school is anteing up in the NIL is a big factor. St. John's has a bank. We know that. We know his name. We know that Rapoli's going to do what he has to do. He has taken that kind of interest in the program. UConn is able to go out and get guys. Hey, St. John's was interested in DeMerry. Kentucky was interested in DeMerry. He went to UConn. You know that? It costs money for that to happen. That's the bottom line. Go out and get those players and some of these programs like Marquette. I mean, we know the man can coach. The problem is not any money. If you run a program and don't have any money, you, you can't compete anymore. If you come up with a player, he's gone the second year, everybody in the country is going to be out after him. And these guys don't just move from a Fairfield or a Quinnipiac to a big East school or to an ACC school. They moved from North Carolina to Michigan. They moved from Georgia to UConn. Why would anybody have to leave Georgia? It's Georgia. It's North Carolina. How can North Carolina lose their point guard to Michigan? I mean, some of this stuff is crazy. You shake your head, but that's the world that we live in. You just have to sit back and not let it bother you because it's a cesspool. it's more of a cesspool than it's ever been but you know what you get a game like tonight and you go to the game and you go to a sold out garden and you have a two great teams well coached kids playing their hearts out and it's it's a great event so you ignore all the ills because the ills are enormous let's be honest we all know that I'll be fascinated by this game tonight one because UConn has clearly turned the corner early February is when Danny puts the pedal to the metal he did with the castle team he's doing it now with this team and Demary taking over as the leader having a team that can fill it up St. John's is woefully inconsistent from three. They can shoot threes. They shoot threes at as good a percentage as UConn does. But if you look at the numbers, the UConn guys will do it day in and day out a lot more than the St. John's guys will. You can't find games where Sellers and Jackson are both knocking down threes in the same game. It just doesn't happen. If it does, they're going to be in good shape. Hopefully it happens tonight. St. John's is going to have to be consistent in the backcourt tonight. St. John's is going to have to have their bigs make baskets and get the ball down in the hole and not miss all these easy baskets that they do time after time. I know they're going to rebound. I know they're going to defend. I know they're going to get their hands on passes. I know they're going to trap. I understand those things. They're going to do that every game. what they don't do well is the guards don't defend well on the perimeter. They don't close out threes. They don't keep good guards from beating them off the dribble to the basket. Now, the inside guys will block shots. All three of them will block. Hopkins not really, but the other two will block shots. Zuby will block shots. Mitchell will block shots. and praise him there he'll block a shot but St. John's for St. John's is they lack consistency on defense they miss assignments they get beat off the dribble they give up open looks they make a lot of defensive mistakes which last year's team didn't make last year's team was so good defensively this team is much better offensively. And it's a team without a point guard, that is, without a pure point guard, which is learning how to pass better. They are still a team that'll make you cringe in the half court. They don't get good looks. They're getting the ball moved better, but it's coming from such a bad, bad place that it's taking them a long time. you know that St. John's, which is so heavy on using video in getting guys prepared for games, has them completely up to date on everything UConn's going to do. And you know, Danny's going to put a couple of wrinkles in, but this is going to come down to these guys making plays because a guy like Demary can make any kind of play. He can knock down a three from anywhere. He can beat you off the dribble. He's a big time defender. He can score on any level. I mean, that's a legitimate star player coming into his own. Caravans is tested as any player could be. Mullins will knock down anything. He's got ice water in his veins. You can tell already. Ball is the X actor. They need Reed. And Reed's solid, but he's got to stay on the floor. If he doesn't, they've got a big problem tonight. You want to see St. John's in trouble? Have Mitchell have three fouls in the first half. If you want to see, or two, he probably won't get his third, but he'll sit 10 minutes. You want to see UConn in trouble, get Reed in foul trouble. And I think they will try to do that early. I'm sure they're going to have him not chasing things early. I'll be interested to see how they defend and how long they stay with the smaller lineup. And it's a chess game on so many levels. Pace, both these teams want to move the ball up and down the floor. They want to play an 80-point game. St. John's is better in transition than they are. UConn is versatile and good both ways. St. John's can be lacking in the half court. We all know that. They can be taken out of their offense. And that's where they need Zuby to be an interior passer, which he's good at. But they're just not dynamic in that way. For the most part, they're a pretty good foul shooting team, although Mitchell is bad and Hopkins is erratic. UConn, you got some guys who, a lot of guys who will shoot well, a lot of guys who won't shoot well. I think, I expect Demary to continue playing as hot. Now you got to cool them off from three. They've got to make sure that UConn doesn't come in here and shoot 18 or 36 from three, because if they do, they're going to win. Yeah. So Ball is the one that can go this way or that way. Just like Jackson can spend 15 minutes in the first half in the doghouse and have no points or can be knocking down shots and go into the basket. Plus, I think Sellers has got to come out and be enormously aggressive and confident and not afraid to take that look. The thing about him is I want him to shoot more threes. I don't want him to be afraid to pull a trigger. And I want him to shoot it in transition. I think he's very good at that. I want him to be more confident in doing that. It's a fascinating game. Listen, UConn's the better team. Nobody's arguing that. Nobody could argue that. That's why they're third in the country in St. John's 22. St. John's hasn't beaten a team that's good now St. John's has won a lot in the Big East so has UConn because the Big East is down they both beat Villanova I went to the St. John's Villanova game at Villanova St. John's played well that night Villanova was ice cold from outside give St. John's credit for that and although Villanova made a run in the second half St. John's was comfortable the entire game and I'll play them They couldn't handle St. John's size. They couldn't handle St. John's inside. They had a big problem with that. Villanova went up and played a great game at UConn and should have won the game, lost it in overtime. They should have won the game. Villanova's going to the NCAA tournament. There's only three teams automatic in this league right now, and Seton Hall needed to beat Villanova the other night. Otherwise, they're going to have to make a big run in the NCAA tournament or they're not going to get there. This team, this league, the mighty Big East, is only going to go three deep right now. I would say that Villanova will play probably in the 8-9 game. It could be a 10, but I think probably 8-9. They make a nice 8-9 game. I think that St. John's, depending on how they handle the three games they have in the next three weeks, they have UConn tonight. They have UConn on the 25th of February. They have Villanova on the 28th of February. How they handle these three games. If they can get two out of three, they could be as high as a four with a good tournament showing. I don't see them. First of all, the first two lines you can forget. I don't see them above a four this year, no matter what they do. They'd have to win the rest of their games to get to a three this year. I think there be a four or a five I think UConn will be a two or a three I do not think there be a one I know people think they can be a one I don't think they're going to be a one. I think you can make a better case, Arizona, Duke, Illinois, Michigan. Although they only have one loss, they're not playing the teams. Remember, you're not seeing the teams that those teams are seeing in the other leagues. If UConn was seeing those teams every night, they'd have a couple more losses. Because so would St. John's. The Big East is just not that tight. It's weak underneath these teams. So their records are better. Those teams have to play each other. You got to, you know, if you're in Big 12, if you're in the SEC, and the Big 12 is loaded, you got to see these teams every night. You got to see monsters every night. Makes a big difference. and Duke and Illinois are coming on gangbusters. They are playing. If anything, if I were their coaches, I would be afraid they're peaking too early. I don't think they can play better than they're playing right now, either one of them. Duke of Force, led by Boozer, is having this. And this year, there are some incredible freshmen, which we'll get to as we get closer to the tournament, an incredible freshman play. I mean, when you have a freshman at Illinois go into Purdue and score 45 points, I mean, it's an all-time record at Mackey Arena. I mean, that's not an easy place to play. When Michigan's on its A game, scary. Arizona, you know, I think if anything, we've underrated them because no one talks about them and all they do is win. Every game, they find a way. They're very good. So there's a lot of strength this year in the top eight teams. I think UConn's one of those. I think they'll be in a two. They could slip to a three if they don't play great the rest of the way, but that's the least they're going to be is a three, and they'll probably be a two. If St. John's doesn't win this game tonight, then you figure they're going to be a bigger underdog at UConn. If they lose both all UConn regular season games, St. John's has to play well in the tournament just to not slip to, say, a six. I think they'll wind up being a four or a five. I don't think that'll happen to them. But this is a chance for them. They don't have a lot of chances to pick up or impress in the regular season anymore because everyone knows the Big East is down. So this is their chance. they've won eight games in a row. They've pulled games out. Patino has gone with the big three forwards, and he's mixed and matched the guards. Yes, he still will yin and yang Jackson in and out of the games. He'll go to Darling and then sit Darling. He'll go with the matchup. He'll go with his gut. It'll be very interesting to see who he believes in tonight against this caliber opponent. This is an important test of whether Connecticut is a legitimate big-time threat to win it all tonight. That's what they're going to show you tonight, whether they are as much championship timber as they think they are. for St. John's, this is a chance to show that they have made it back to a level where they can go into the NCAA tournament and win two or three games. Let's not get crazy yet about four or five and six. Win two or three games. Remember, last year they won one game, even off that season. But to do that, they need to play better, more consistent, especially at the guards. The guards are very much up and down. This team has been woefully inconsistent, but it's also played much better, much more tenacious. it's hungrier, it's tougher, and it started to show that it can close out games, which is usually a very good Pitino trait. The team is improving. And give him credit for that because it almost looked at a time like this year could be lost if things didn't go a certain way. They've gone the right way. He's made the adjustments he had to make. And why? Because he's a great coach. No one could ever take that away from him. He's a great, great coach. his teams are prepared. They're held accountable for their actions. They've held accountable for how they play, play in and play out. Not a lot of schools do that. Not a lot of coaches do that, but you see it with him. All right. Maybe you think, all right, one mistake and you turn your head and you're back on the bench. Hey, he's teaching, but tonight it's put up time. This is the test he wants them to pass. this is the test I think they can pass, but not unless they play the best game they've played all year. It's a great challenge, great setting. Look forward to it. I really do. And if you're a college basketball fan over here, a St. John's fan or a UConn fan, you know this is a special night. It really is. And you can think about things like the Super Bowl, which will come your way in just a couple of days. the hype has been kind of low key i know there's an olympics going on i know there's been the nancy guthrie story which has gotten a lot of play the last couple of days and rightly so as everyone's trying to chip in and help and do anything that they can do to find this woman it's become kind of a national thing it's such an odd case and such a heartbreaking case. But tonight, when Madison Square Garden has a big game, and it does, this is the rare game. This is the one that you circle on the calendar that's all year, that you wait for. This is the one. There's some good games at the Garden, but this is a special night in intensity. If you're sitting in that building tonight around a quarter to eight, you'll feel the intensity that only that building can produce. And it'll be that kind of excitement tonight. So it'll be fun. Now, a couple of things. Get a $10 bonus bet from BetRivers to use on the big game. Enter the bonus code FRANCESSA128. FRANCESSA128. Offer expires after the big game, of course, because it's the last game of the season. that code again is francesa 128 offer expires after the game must be 21 eligible players only gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER now they tell me a lot of folks have been signing up for the newsletter so they want me to mention that again that the Mike Francesa newsletter is your chance to enter the February newsletter contest win a personalized message from me or the Francesa prize pack if you haven't signed up do it it's absolutely free just go to Mike Francesa podcast sign up and they'll deliver the newsletter to your inbox. It's as simple as that. Enjoy this. We will see you Sunday night after we crown a champion. We'll be here with all the action and hopefully the officials stay the heck out of it. I know one thing. It'll be better than the NFL honors program, which I tried to watch last night. There was nothing on last night. So I turn on the honors program. Oh, Talk about it. And I'm not going to get into persons and people and rip people who are just inept, but it was sad. Unwatchable is me being kind. That's how bad that show was. The only moment that I really liked was seeing Stafford up there with his little girls. That was charming. That was utterly charming. And I'll tell you, I know some people are mad that may didn't win the MVP. I watch a lot of football. Stafford was the MVP. Okay? I know he's not here, but you know what? May's performance in the postseason isn't what has driven them. Postseason is not what's driven them to this game. It's very rare for a team averaging under 20 points to ever get to a Super Bowl. Now, they've played some good defenses. They've played, I think, the number five, the number two, or the number three and the number five defense and the number 10 defense in the three games. They've met with pass rushes. Now, metric-wise, I think Houston's better than Seattle defensively, but if you go by the numbers that they use, Seattle's the number one ranked defense. number one ranked defenses do very very well in the super bowl and new england has been sacked 15 times in the last three games and may has fumbled six times he has done a terrific job with his legs and denver was remiss in how they played him i'm sure seattle has spent a lot of time on that just like i'm sure they're going to think that they can force sam into mistakes because Sam's life's been mistakes, but his postseason has not been mistakes. And I really think he took a quantum leap with that Ram regular season win, where he had a terrible start to the game and an incredible finish to the game. And I think that lifted him to a different level. We'll see Sunday whether he's lifting a Super Bowl trophy, which will be a heck of a story. Enjoy the games tonight, Sunday night. We'll see you after the game Sunday night. We'll see you later. Thanks for listening to the Mike Francesa podcast on the Bett Rivers Network.