American farmers were already struggling, then came the Iran war

America's farmers can't seem to catch a break. I'm trying to choose between the words bleak and brutal. Mark Mueller is a fourth generation farmer from Iowa. He mainly farms corn and soybeans. He's also the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association. There are problems that have been going on for years. Now, I will say this. The current administration has not done me any favors. The previous administration did not do me any favors. And this past year has been especially turbulent. President Trump's tariffs and other trade policies have disrupted export markets, and his immigration crackdown has exacerbated an already serious labor crisis in agriculture. And this administration, it's made so far empty promises. Farmers have gotten a lot of lip service, but we have not seen much more than that. We get lots of platitudes. You know, President Trump loves farmers. You know, he's our best friend. But until we see some trade deals, some meaningful trade deals, and not just empty frameworks announcing trade deals, agriculture is going to be on the ropes for some time to come yet. Now, the war in Iran has caused a spike in fertilizer prices because half of the world's nitrogen fertilizer exports come through the strait of Hormuz. If the pain persists for farmers, Mueller says it might bleed into the midterms. Are farmers going to turn wholesale against Trump? I don't know, but I'm going to guess that he'll have markedly less support of the Republican Party, will have less support than it did at the last election from the farming community. I'm hearing people grumble, but not loudly yet. Consider this, some of President Trump's policies are testing the support of farmers, many of whom voted for him. From NPR, I'm Scott Detroh. And there is a lot riding on the peak bloom forecast. Tourism, climate change models, and more. Listen to shortwave on the NPR app, or wherever you get your podcast to hear how scientists are predicting the future. It's Consider This from NPR. A series of Trump administration policy decisions, deportations, tariffs, and the Iran War are ratcheting up the pressure on American farmers. It's a group that tends to support the president, but persistent challenges may test their patience. NPR's D-1 is a group that is trying to get the president to vote for the president. The president is trying to get the president to vote for the president, but the president is not. And NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben reports on how agriculture is getting squeezed. Dave O'Brien is straightforward about how the Trump administration's policies are affecting farmers. They're choking us. We are getting choked out here. This is not going to end well. O'Brien has been growing corn and soybeans for 50 years in northern Illinois. He's voted for Republicans and Democrats in the past, but he's frustrated with the GOP and the Trump era. Since the U.S. bombed Iran, for example, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of nitrogen fertilizer, sending the price spiraling upward. And that's on top of what farmers will spend filling up a couple of fuel tanks. You know, you and I go to the gas station and we're shocked when we've got to spend $36,000 to fill our darn tank up, right? These farmers are going to be filling those combines up. It's going to be costing $3,000 to $5,000 a throw. Can you believe that? 500 gallon times $4 or $5, there you go right there. It's just crazy. Beyond those higher costs, deportations have thinned out the ag labor force. Tariffs increase the price of goods like machinery and cause tensions with China. Those tensions aren't over. Last week, the Trump administration announced that a planned meeting with China, the U.S.'s number one soybean export market, would be delayed for weeks. That helped send soybean prices tumbling. Joseph Glauber, a former USDA chief economist, says farm balance sheets aren't looking good. If you just look at the cash side of the business in terms of what they receive for their crops and what they have to pay out, those margins have been tight and in some cases negative. And the challenges can build on each other. Nitrogen fertilizer, for example, is used on corn but not soybeans. So if corn growing gets more expensive... Market analysts are thinking that maybe a million, million and a half acres or more could switch from corn into soybeans, which of course is that is also contributed to a lower soybean prices. Farming is always unpredictable. The weather, political developments in other countries, all sorts of things can make markets chaotic. But U.S. policy choices can make it much harder. In the first Trump administration, for example, Trump's tariffs led China to trade more with South America, importing more of their soybeans in place of U.S. soy. That has persisted. President Trump seems to know farmers are hurting. He recently demanded in all caps on social media that Congress, quote, passed the Farm Bill now. And in a statement to NPR, agriculture secretary Brooke Rawlins said, quote, Our farmers are moving into planting season and the president is aware of these challenges. We are looking at every potential option to lower fertilizer prices. The department also emphasized the assistance the administration has given farmers. In December, they announced a $12 billion program designed to support farmers through, as the administration put it, temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs. Altogether, federal direct aid to farmers totaled more than $30 billion last year. That helps, says Glauber, but the government can only do so much. You've got to think that providing $20-30 billion in additional monies to the ag sector is not something that's going to happen, you know, year in, year out. Gary Wirdish is president of the Minnesota Farmers Union. He also advised Democratic then-Senator Mark Dayton on agricultural issues and has farmed for decades. To him, Trump's subsidies look not just like assistance, but a political gambit, as Trump tries to stay in farmers' good graces. It's not right for the U.S. taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out, which obviously the farmers need it now, but we need policies that don't require bailouts. We need a good farm bill. We need policies that the farmers get their money from the marketplace. I asked David Oman, former co-chair of the Iowa Republican Party, if that's a fair assessment, that subsidies are also a political ploy. Well, I think it's the truth. If you want to look at it that way, and he isn't the only president or the only person from a particular party that's tried to do that. And he agrees with Wirdish that farmers may need the money now, but they'd prefer stability. Most farmers, if they level with you, would tell you they'd rather have certainty than uncertainty, looking out one, two, three crop years. Then they can really plan. Do they want to buy more acres? Do they want to make six-figure capital equipment purchases, things of that sort? He adds that if the pain persists for farmers, it could drag on the GOP in the midterms. Generally speaking, though, Trump has received strong support from farmers and rural areas in general, and Trump has encouraged them to take the long view, saying policies like tariffs are short-term pain for long-term gain. O'Brien is just one farmer of many, but he dislikes that logic. It bothers me with these statements about, well, there's going to be a little hurt to be spread around, but that'll all get better. Quite frankly, you don't like that talking at all, whether you're talking about farmers or veterans. That's almost an insult. We're supposed to take it in the ribs, but I guarantee you'll get it better, okay? O'Brien is a Vietnam vet, and so when he looks at the war in Iran, he sees it not only through the lens of his business, but his military experience. It's so, so frustrating, you know? And now you tell me, where's this war going to end up? This, to me, this just smells like Vietnam 2.0. I'm telling you, this is going to not end well. And whether it's Iran or tariffs or any other policy affecting farmers, the question is not just how it ends, but when. That was NPR's Danielle Kurtz-Leibn. This episode was produced by Christine Erismith, Alejandra Marquez-Honsey, and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Rebecca Metzler and William Troup. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detro.