TBPN

Rocket Lab Enters SpaceX Arena, Meta’s Prediction Market, America’s Tech Wishlist | Diet TBPN

33 min
Jul 1, 202617 days ago
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Summary

The episode covers Rocket Lab's $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications as a direct move to compete with SpaceX's Starlink, alongside Comcast's planned split into separate connectivity and content businesses. Hosts also discuss Blue Origin's New Glenn return-to-flight plans, a humorous tax optimization scheme using Delaware C Corps and prediction markets, and Wall Street Journal readers' top innovation wishes for the next 20 years.

Insights
  • Rocket Lab's Iridium acquisition is a strategic shortcut to vertical integration — bypassing years of constellation-building by acquiring existing spectrum, customers, and recurring cash flow in one deal.
  • The telecom-content bundling era appears to be ending: Comcast, AT&T, and Verizon have all unwound major media acquisitions, suggesting distribution and content are better operated as separate businesses.
  • Self-driving technology is commoditizing rapidly, similar to LLM proliferation, meaning autonomous vehicle capability will not remain the exclusive domain of any single company.
  • Solo entrepreneurship and micro-startups are scaling to multimillion-dollar revenues faster than any previously measured generation of firms, driven significantly by AI tooling.
  • Prediction market profits remain in a regulatory grey zone — potentially qualifying as 1256 derivative contracts with favorable 60/40 long-term/short-term capital gains treatment — creating near-term tax ambiguity.
Trends
Vertical integration in the space industry accelerating as launch providers acquire satellite operators and spectrum assets to compete with SpaceX's end-to-end modelTelecom and media deconvergence: major connectivity companies unwinding decade-long content acquisitionsSelf-driving technology commoditizing across the auto industry, no longer a single-company moatRise of solo entrepreneurs and tiny startups generating significant revenue faster, enabled by AI toolsPrediction markets expanding into mainstream platforms with unresolved regulatory and tax treatmentSpace economy valuations booming, with Rocket Lab growing from $4.1B SPAC valuation to $60B market cap in under four yearsAgentic AI being explored for back-office automation including entity formation and tax structuringSpectrum scarcity emerging as a critical strategic asset in the satellite connectivity warsFusion energy miniaturization progressing toward vehicle and drone-scale applicationsConsumer demand growing for ambient noise cancellation and soundproofing in residential and outdoor environments
Topics
Companies
Rocket Lab
Acquired Iridium for $8B to compete directly with SpaceX in satellite connectivity and space applications.
Iridium Communications
Pioneer LEO satellite operator with 66 satellites, spectrum assets, and millions of customers acquired by Rocket Lab.
SpaceX
Operates 10,000-satellite Starlink fleet; primary competitive benchmark for Rocket Lab's new space applications strat...
Comcast
Planning to split into separate connectivity and content companies after a decade-long NBCUniversal content strategy.
NBCUniversal
Comcast's content arm set to be spun off as an independent entity focused entirely on content.
Blue Origin
CEO Dave Limp announced New Glenn return-to-flight sooner than expected using a hybrid horizontal-vertical launch app...
Meta
Reportedly reaching out to prediction market providers, sparking debate over whether it will launch a real-money pred...
Kalshi
Referenced as a CFTC-designated contract market whose event contracts may qualify for favorable 1256 tax treatment.
Verizon
Bought AOL and Yahoo, reorganized them into Verizon Media, then sold to Apollo — part of telecom-media deconvergence ...
AT&T
Bought DirecTV and Time Warner but fully exited both, illustrating the failure of telecom-content bundling strategies.
Rivian
Sent hosts a demo R1S unit; self-driving feature praised as deeply underrated amid broader autonomy commoditization d...
Stripe
Cited as source of data showing today's micro-startups are reaching multimillion-dollar revenues faster than any prio...
Apollo Global Management
Acquired Verizon Media after Verizon unwound its AOL and Yahoo content strategy.
DreamWorks Animation
Acquired by Comcast via NBCUniversal as part of its now-unwinding content expansion strategy.
Avalanche Energy
Seattle-based fusion reactor startup developing compact fusion devices potentially small enough for vehicles and drones.
People
Peter Beck
Announced Iridium acquisition in a video, explaining the 'space application equation' and vertical integration strategy.
Dave Limp
Announced New Glenn return-to-flight plan using hybrid launch infrastructure, sooner than previously expected.
Brandon Grell
Authored the TBPN newsletter covering the Rocket Lab-Iridium deal and broader space industry analysis.
Delian Asparouhov
Noted Rocket Lab shares were available at ~$4.80 on July 1 2024 and now trade at $101.
Derek Thompson
Published newsletter arguing this is the golden age for solo entrepreneurs and tiny startups driven by AI.
Quotes
"This is officially our entrance into the space applications market, a thing we've been talking about for a long time now. But to be clear, this is not the finish line."
Peter Beck
"One being Rocket Lab, we have unfettered access to space... and then we think of Iridium. They have an already operational constellation. Spectrum. Not just any spectrum. Extremely valuable spectrum. Millions of customers and they're a profitable business. Where the 3 comes in is the result of these two things is a fully integrated self launching space superpower."
Peter Beck
"I think you just created vertical AI agents for tax fraud."
Host
"There's never been a better time for workers to get rich by going independent. This is the golden age for tiny startups with big revenue."
Derek Thompson
"My latest hot take is that self driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology, and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it, it is not some insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles."
Host
Full Transcript
4 Speakers
Speaker A

People were clamoring for a Rocket Lab story that never came. Yesterday, Rocket Lab enters the arena with SpaceX. Brandon Grell fired up the TVPN newsletter, which you can subscribe to@TBPN.com today. Because we were on the horn with Prof. G, we did his podcast. Very excited for that to come out. Anyway, Rocket Lab, they're duking it out with SpaceX. Let's go through it. Yesterday, the launch services and space systems provider Rocket Lab agreed to purchase satellite manufacturer operator Iridium in a cash and stock deal that values the company at 8 billion, or 20% more than the share price at Friday's close. Iridium pioneered LEO satellites, launching its first one some 30 years ago. The Iridium network was the original sat phone, this huge block of a phone. You would take out the antenna out of the back, and the antenna was big enough to kill you instantly if you let it get near your brain. No, just kidding. It was very safe, but it would be terrifying to anyone worried about microwave technology or any sort of radiation. But it was wildly successful. The company grew and grew, and now it's part of Rocket Lab. Today they operate a fleet of 66 satellites. That seems low. That's because these are bigger, older satellites. But this partnership is probably going up against Starlink. So it connects handsets and other devices used by ships, mining sites, US government agencies, enterprise connectivity play. The move represents yet more vertical integration at Rocket Lab. Over the years, the company has grown from small niche satellite launch provider to an integrated space powerhouse. It now designs satellites and aerospace components, serves the defense primes, has the second most launched US rocket annually, the electron rocket, and is currently developing a reusable medium lift launch vehicle. But Jeff Bezos was probably coming for that silver medal any day now. With the Iridium acquisition, Rocket Lab is positioning itself to compete directly with SpaceX, which already connects, which already operates a 10,000 satellite fleet. Rocket Lab has its work cut out for it, says Brandon Guerrell. On August 25, 2021, Rocket Lab spacked at 4.1 billion. The usual SPAC price, probably $10 a share.4 billion valuation. It stayed at or below that price in the public markets for three whole years, until September 2024, when it started to grow both revenue and get rerated. Now it's acquiring Iridium for 8 billion, twice its original IPO price. And Delian says, yeah, you could buy

0:02

Speaker B

for around $4 80ish cents a share on July 1st in 2024. It is now sitting at $101.

2:29

Speaker A

Yeah, what a run. And yeah, the Whole space economy has been booming. Very, very good. It's a $60 billion company, so they're picking up an $8 billion connectivity provider. And we can play a little bit of this from the founder of Rocket Lab, the CEO Rocketman himself. Rocket Lab is acquiring Iridium Communications.

2:38

Speaker C

I was wearing this blue jacket.

2:59

Speaker A

Look at this.

3:01

Speaker C

I was announcing Neutron. So I guess that means there's something important to announce.

3:01

Speaker B

Do you ever. Wait, pause for a second. Do you ever put on a jacket like that?

3:08

Speaker A

Is this really the important.

3:12

Speaker B

This seems to be one of the more. Look at this. No, wait. Whoa, whoa.

3:14

Speaker A

I don't know.

3:21

Speaker B

I mean, I don't think I have. But now I want to try

3:22

Speaker A

this thing, too.

3:26

Speaker C

Okay, we're going to go back to school for a little bit. I want to introduce you to the space application equation. So you've heard me talk a lot in the past about applications. It's where all the value in space truly lies. But in order to exploit that value to the fullest, you need a few other things. First thing is unfettered access to space. So you need your own launch. And then, of course, you need your own ability to build spacecraft at scale. We've got that, too. But there's some other really big barriers to building large, successful constellations in orbit.

3:29

Speaker A

The first one, Romantic Companions.

4:16

Speaker C

Spectrum. Spectrum is a finite, almost impossible to get. And of course, not all spectrum is created the same. The next thing is, it takes a long time to build and launch your infrastructure. A long time to design and build your satellites, launch them. And even longer time to get your first $1 of revenue. And then finally, it's a long time to a sustained cash flow model. A long time to build your business model. A long time to build your customer base. And it takes just that long, extended time until you've got proper, reoccurring cash flow. So those of you who know me will know that I'm way too impatient for that. So we found a bit of a shortcut. Rocket Lab is acquiring Iridium Communications.

4:18

Speaker A

Good music. Very clear.

5:04

Speaker C

This will be one of the most transformative deals in the space industry. It's the ultimate combination for growth. And if you think back to our little whiteboard session a moment ago, this is a deal where one plus one equals three, not just two. One being Rocket Lab, we have unfettered

5:06

Speaker A

access to space and unfettered, unfettered in solid venture space. Again.

5:21

Speaker C

And then we think of Iridium. They have an already operational constellation. Spectrum. Not just any spectrum. Extremely valuable Spectrum.

5:26

Speaker A

Oh, yeah, the spectrum.

5:33

Speaker C

Millions of customers and they're a profitable business.

5:34

Speaker A

SpaceX just bought some spectrum.

5:35

Speaker C

Where the 3 comes in is the result of these two things is a fully integrated self launching space superpower. One that will unlock more growth from Iridium's existing network and build new constellations to unlock new services and market opportunities. This is officially our entrance into the space applications market, a thing we've been talking about for a long time now. But to be clear, this is not the finish line. Now we won't just continue Iridium's network as is. We're going to build upon it to unlock new markets and pioneer new space based services. Rocket Lab's future in space applications has just been unlocked and accelerated.

5:37

Speaker B

I like this guy.

6:18

Speaker A

I'm off to buy a new jacket.

6:19

Speaker C

This thing's too small.

6:21

Speaker A

See, it goes full circle. The reason that he had to put the jacket on sort of awkwardly was it's too small.

6:24

Speaker B

It was a part of the story.

6:31

Speaker A

Yeah, it was good. That's a really good video. I like that. Anyway, Comcast split in 2011, Comcast, which was primarily a cable TV, Internet and phone provider to something like 30 million Americans, bought a 51% stake in NBCUniversal from General Electric. I love it. I love an industrial company that owns a media company. It's happened before folks. It's not that crazy. Just might work. In 2013, it purchased the remaining 49% stake. Since then, Comcast has acquired the European media company sky, the movie studio DreamWorks Animation, and through NBCUniversal spun up Peacock among other activity in the entertainment space. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Comcast's decade long into trying to be a content plus distribution company is coming to an end. It's planning to split the business into two. The Comcast entity will once again becoming a become a connectivity only business, and NBCUniversal will focus entirely on content. And there's been a number of spin outs that have been happening for a while and this is the final big one, I guess. There's a recent history of telecom connectivity companies rolling up entertainment businesses and then spitting them out or getting rid of them. Over the past decade, Verizon bought AOL and Yahoo, reorganized the two into a entity called Verizon Media, and ultimately sold Verizon Verizon Media to Apollo. In 2021, over roughly the same period, AT&T bought DirecTV and Time Warner, but ended up fully exiting its position in DirecTV and spun off Time Warner as WarnerMedia into its own entity in 2022. So interesting deal to follow along the other good news in the space world is that after that explosion at Blue Origin launch, that New Glenn launch that was so disheartening, there were rumors that it might be two years, got that launch pad back online. But there is some updates here. There are some updates to return to flight this year. We're not rebuilding the same pad. We're going straight to a horizontal vertical hybrid. ConOps we had already been developing for our 9x4 new Glenn launch vehicle, using existing infrastructure, skipping a new transporter erector and creating a common conops across two paths. So Dave shares, they just used the

6:32

Speaker B

explosion as sort of like a demo. They demoed the old setup, yeah.

8:57

Speaker A

But good news from Dave Limp, the CEO of Blue Origin, that they're gonna get New Glenn flying again sooner than people thought. I have a pitch for you. I have a business idea. Let's get your feedback. So what's the biggest problem with being a doctor? You make a lot of money as a doctor, right? What's the biggest problem?

9:03

Speaker B

The odd hours, no taxes.

9:23

Speaker A

You make so much money, you get taxed on normal income, ordinary income. Even if you're a doctor, you're saving people's lives. You're doing the most important job in our economy.

9:26

Speaker B

You have a doctor buddy that also

9:35

Speaker A

runs a hedge fund, though, and when he runs the hedge fund, he's making capital gains, but when he does an operation, he makes ordinary gains, which to

9:37

Speaker B

me is personally very concerning. I don't know if I'd want to go to see a doctor that does surgery.

9:45

Speaker A

That, to be fair, he's building a new clinic and he has time off while he's not up and running yet.

9:51

Speaker B

But when I heard that a surgeon was also running a hedge fund, I got a little bit worried. Just if I was under the knife,

9:56

Speaker A

but.

10:06

Speaker B

And the market was open, I'd be a little nervous.

10:07

Speaker A

But the doctor makes a ton of money, saves people's lives, does all sorts of good things, gets taxed at ordinary income, not capital gains. So you're taxing doctors who are saving lives at a higher rate. So my business idea is, with the power of agentic AI, we create thousands and thousands of Delaware C Corps for every doctor. So every time that there's a doctor's appointment and you have to pay the doctor, you acquire one of their Delaware C Corps. And within that C Corp. There is, on the balance sheet of that company, basically an IOU for the services the doctor must render you.

10:10

Speaker B

Sitting on the balance sheet.

10:52

Speaker A

Sitting on the balance sheet?

10:53

Speaker B

Yeah.

10:53

Speaker D

It's an asset.

10:53

Speaker A

It's an asset. And so you can, you can then depreciate that asset since, since you've acquired it, the doctor reaps capital gains and then you cash in your.

10:54

Speaker B

Yeah, and they can have a sort of a farm of C Corp. So there's, you know, they've had them, the shares for over a year.

11:06

Speaker A

Exactly, exactly. Long term capital gains. And then, and then the patient on their way out, they sign one form agentic AI does its thing, winds down the C corp and cashes in the asset and then the doctor can reap capital gains. What do you think? You think we got a business there?

11:12

Speaker B

I think you just created vertical AI agents for tax fraud.

11:29

Speaker A

I asked ChatGPT and it said this is almost certainly dead on arrival. Not clever tax optimization, more like abusive tax shelter with health care law side quests. The core problem is the economic substance is obvious. The patient is paying for medical care. The doctor is being paid for performing medical services. IRC 61 includes compensation for services and fees and gross income. And the IRS says you generally include everything received in payment for personal services. Wrapping the bill in a newly minted C corp does not change the income character. Well, I think we'll have to take that one to the all the way.

11:34

Speaker B

Take it all the way.

12:12

Speaker A

Take it to the Supreme Court.

12:12

Speaker D

There's a chance, I think you can wrap it in a prediction market. Right. So every single time you go to the doctor you say, okay, there's like zero percent chance that the doctor is going to do well. And then he bets.

12:13

Speaker A

Yes, he bets, yes.

12:24

Speaker D

And then we'll see what happens. But you know, if it's a good doctor, then he'll be paid out in full.

12:25

Speaker A

It also adds insurance to it as well because you don't pay if the doctor doesn't do a good job.

12:28

Speaker D

Yeah, it's like insurance is built in.

12:33

Speaker A

Built in.

12:34

Speaker D

So I think this is actually.

12:35

Speaker A

But are winnings on prediction markets capital gains?

12:36

Speaker D

I think it's still mostly unclear. So for the next few years, I think this would definitely be a good strategy.

12:40

Speaker A

Okay, I like it. I like it. You have to imagine because they say they don't use the word bet, they use the word trade.

12:45

Speaker B

Trade, predict.

12:51

Speaker A

So capital gains trading, capital gains, treatment, maybe.

12:52

Speaker B

I think the post last year where someone was saying like prediction markets will replace everything. If I want blueberries delivered to my house, I go to the market for blueberries being delivered to my house. And I bet $15. And I bet no, someone else, they bet, yes, they deliver me blueberries, they get the $15 works every time.

12:56

Speaker A

Works every, every single time. We keep debating this, this meta question of will they launch a financially incentivized prediction market or will it purely be for social clout? You're still in the camp of there's going to be real dollars. It just feels like the first time

13:18

Speaker B

that the only reason that, the reason I believe that is because I believe they had Metta. Yeah like was reaching out to the various prediction market providers to try to be potential like partners and, or vendors.

13:36

Speaker A

But I mean partnership can mean so many different things. Partnership with prediction market can mean we'll give you ad reads or discounted ads or we'll vend your data so that if someone is on Instagram and hits the search box acting for something and Llama5 or Musespark wants to answer it and surface data from a prediction market, we have the rights to do that without infringing on your copyright or something like that. Like, it could be a data licensing partnership, it could be an acquisition funnel. It could be something where Meta's funneling people to the prediction markets or back like that whole. I read the same article that you read and it doesn't make any sense to say, oh yeah, I want to create a competitor so I'm going to reach out to my direct competitors and see if I, if they want to give me their customers. Like why would they ever do that? That makes no sense. You see what I'm saying?

13:51

Speaker B

The only thing is like the prediction markets have a history of partnering with, with other applications and basically being the infrastructure providers.

14:45

Speaker A

Yeah.

14:53

Speaker B

To actually place real.

14:54

Speaker A

But dollar you go to any, any partner, whether it's, you know, there was

14:56

Speaker B

that whole suite of like, no, I agree with you. Like, I generally agree that there is a possibility that there's no dollars and

15:01

Speaker A

it's cnn, cnbc, but I just don't. I New York Stock Exchange, they all have partnerships with prediction markets. None of them have like, oh, go in the CNBC app and upload your credit card information. Like Meta has been on this path of like, maybe we'd like a financial relationship with our customers for decades. And like it's never really matured. There was always this idea that you would be able to like save your payment information. And then when you see a T shirt you could just click and one click checkout in the Instagram app or in the Facebook app and that never really took off. So for a variety of reasons.

15:09

Speaker D

So John, in this case it'd be like you see an ad and then it's like I place a bet that there won't be a T shirt delivered to my house.

15:44

Speaker A

Yes, yes.

15:50

Speaker D

And then it'll get fulfilled.

15:51

Speaker A

This is the final boss.

15:52

Speaker B

Hopefully.

15:53

Speaker A

Hopefully. The answer to your question on can doctors reap capital gains by using prediction markets instead? Prediction market profits are taxable, but the character's unsettled at the moment. CFTC regulated event contracts like Kalshi style contracts. There is a decent argument that they are financial derivatives rather than gambling. The CFTC describes event contracts as derivative contracts whose payoff depends on the specified event. It also granted Kalshi status as a designated contract market. So best case, some contracts might be treated as 1256 contracts. That means marked to market annually and gains and losses split across 60% long term capital, 40% short term capital, regardless of whole holding period. So there's a chance that that's the solution. I think we might have solved it, but we'll have to use every tool in the modern financialization and technology box. The Wall Street Journal asked their readers what innovations they want to see in the next 20 years, and the answers are sort of all over the place.

15:54

Speaker B

And so number five will shock you.

17:01

Speaker A

Number five might shock you. What innovation do you want to see in the next 20 years? Tyler, think of something, Jordi, think of something. I'll read some of what the Wall Street Journal readers wrote in Mark Mary Gillespie from Irving, Texas said solar on wheels she wants. She says, why can't cars be manufactured with solar panels integrated into the top of the vehicle? Then it could recharge the car's battery as you travel and when you park. So this is not actually a new idea. There are cars that have solar panels on the roof, but solar panels are extremely weak. And so you'd have to leave the car outside for like five months to charge a full electric car. Now there have been DARPA Grand Challenge cars and specific almost science experiments vehicles where they have a huge surface area and it's this massive wing of solar panels. And I think there's a plane that's also potentially able to fly indefinitely by having solar panels that recharge a motor and it spins. But for a normal car, a single solar panel on the roof doesn't get you much in the way of charging. She's basically asking for stronger solar density, stronger energy density, and I'm in. I'm in in 20 years. Totally feasible. Mary from Irving, Texas, I think it's going to happen. I think it's possible in 20 years. Anyway. Traffic jam plan. I would love to see an autopilot feature. I would Love to see autopilot features on cars. Talk to each other so cars can be chat.

17:03

Speaker B

Wants nuclear cars. Just get a nuclear car.

18:32

Speaker A

That's very, very fallout. I like the. What is that? Nuclear punk or something? What was that? There's like an alternate history of like the 1960s if it was powered by nuclear, not solar punk. Atom punk. Atom punk is the term. And it has all these really cool things that could be powered by nuclear. Maybe we'll get their. Fusion is sort of promising that. We've talked to a couple companies that do smaller fusion reactors and they tend. Avalanche is one up in Seattle or maybe Washington, where it's basically the nuclear. Nuclear reactor, but it's. It's fusion, not fission. And it's about the size of, you know, a large battery. And so you could potentially put it in a car, put in a drone, put it in a space vehicle, keep it up there for a long time. Accordion traffic jams would be a thing of the past. What is an accordion traffic jam?

18:34

Speaker B

I think that's when the traffic's like,

19:27

Speaker A

oh, going in and out, in and

19:29

Speaker B

out, stopping and going. And there's that slight delay when theoretically, if everyone was like moving at the perfect. Yeah, you know.

19:31

Speaker A

So Morgan Clayton from Birmingham, Alabama, wants autopilot features on all the cars to talk to each other. So they never do that. So they know, okay, I gotta speed up, I gotta slow down. And then they're all perfectly in sync. Probably doable. You need some standard or something. What are you thinking? Musical vision. This is a good one. These people are thinking outside the box. This is not like, oh, I want inference at one tenth of the cost. Silicon Valley is unimaginative by comparison. But Mary Stickner Gifford from Alex Alpine, Utah, says she wants musical vision. I'd like to see the invention of a device to help musicians with eyesight limitations read music. There are many ways to help the sight impaired read the printed word, but pianists and others need to read music at the piano. My father's sight was so bad that he had to look at the music about 2 inches away, memorize one or two phrases, then practice what he memorized. He gave his last recital from memory at age 94. What a legend. Let's give it up for Mary Schickner, Gifford's father, grandfather. Powerful, crazy idea. Can't you just print it bigger? If you're having trouble seeing it, you

19:38

Speaker B

just invented the semi truck sized printer.

20:54

Speaker A

Yeah, I mean, you could just print like a poster board and then you could see it at the piano.

20:57

Speaker B

Also glasses Yeah, I wonder. I mean, it might be a small. Might be a small market of people whose vision is so impaired that even with glasses, it needs to be up close. Up close.

21:03

Speaker A

I'm just confused by why this. The invention of a device to help musicians with eyesight limitations read music. Why are we focused on reading music? Wouldn't this be. Wouldn't any technology that allows you to read music if you're hard of sight allow you to read anything? Are we talking general technology?

21:14

Speaker B

I mean, couldn't you have. Couldn't you learn individual notes and then learn the order of them? Have it spoken to you?

21:35

Speaker A

Yeah, I do think maybe iPad app. IPads often sit at the. At the piano, and you could have an iPad app that shows sort of like one note or two notes.

21:43

Speaker B

What about a humanoid robot that grabs your hand and bends?

21:54

Speaker A

Puppeteers.

21:58

Speaker B

You like marionette and, you know, slams your hands?

21:58

Speaker A

Yeah, totally possible.

22:01

Speaker B

Paul Blanco wants something else. He wants a smart spatula.

22:03

Speaker A

This is so much more attainable.

22:06

Speaker B

I'd love a cooking spatula.

22:08

Speaker A

Human teleportation.

22:09

Speaker B

That could tell without penetration what temperature or how thoroughly cooked a hamburger or steak is. Such as rare. Do we not have. We literally have things you just.

22:10

Speaker A

No, no, no. He wants. Without penetration. It has to. You just rest the spatula on top of the steak and it tells you inside the steak what temperature it is, which is very difficult because if you're searing or doing a reverse sear or something, the outside could be a wildly different temperature than what's going on inside. So how do you detect the temperature without penetrating the steak?

22:20

Speaker B

With a thermometer, a powerful X ray.

22:41

Speaker A

Imagine it's as big as that brain scanner thing. Yeah. Here's your smart scene. Load it up. It's like MRI ing the entire steak. That'd be a good time. Robot chefs. Oh, this is related. I want a robot that can work as an executive chef in my own kitchen, says Ray Lohr from Lacey, Washington. It could call a grocer, order ingredients, insisting on it all being upscale, and have those ingredients delivered unpacked, load the fridge, and then use my appliances to make dinner.

22:43

Speaker B

20 years.

23:15

Speaker A

I think it's possible. I like that. That's right on the right level of sci fi. Seems doable for what it's worth, but also not something we can whip up in a weekend with an Arduino like the smart.

23:15

Speaker B

Some of these ideas are silly, but I'm viewing it as a very literal request for startups.

23:26

Speaker A

Yeah, no, I like it quiet inside. Cheryl Franklin from West Grove, Pennsylvania, says given the negative effects of excessive noise, such as elevated blood pressure, cardiac stress and lower real estate values. I'd love improvements in building materials. For example, drywall with built in soundproofing capabilities. Love that. Perhaps a lightweight sound blocking called lead paint.

23:31

Speaker B

Cheryl, bring it back.

23:55

Speaker A

That doesn't do anything to sound. Perhaps a lightweight sound blocking film could also be developed for use in existing buildings and home. I had a startup idea a while back. So you know when you have a young baby, a child, and they every time you go to change the diaper, very noisy. One of my friends put up sound panels like a podcast studio. Full slat wall in the, in the nursery.

23:57

Speaker D

Dual use technology.

24:20

Speaker A

Dual use technology for sure. And it dampens the cries so you can. So you're not so echoey. Because sometimes if a kid's crying in a very echoey room, it really reverberates and it can be kind of crazy.

24:21

Speaker B

And lab paint is dense, so in theory, any added mask can reduce sound transmission. So maybe add a little bit of lead paint to your nursery.

24:33

Speaker A

Lead plates, whole lead plates, maybe whole Faraday cage. But here was the idea. No one wants a slat wall in their nursery, in their baby's room. I don't know, maybe if you're trying to breed the super podcaster, but most people don't want that. They want animals. They want a pastoral nature vibe, some warm pastels, some nice warm tones, something welcoming for the new child who's just been brought into this world. And so the idea was a typical sound panel, square, flat. You know, you might see the egg crate, the black material, but you paint on it an animal. You painted on it. Childlike paintings that you would hang on the wall. It looks appropriate, it fits the decor of the room. But it also has the added effect of sound, treating the room so that it's less noisy when everyone's yelling. Good business.

24:43

Speaker B

Banger.

25:34

Speaker A

Banger. There we go.

25:34

Speaker C

Banger.

25:35

Speaker A

Got a banger. Better than C Corp's on demand for doctors.

25:35

Speaker B

For doctors to do tax process maybe.

25:41

Speaker A

Certainly simpler.

25:44

Speaker B

Jennifer Smith. We have made so many advancements in so many areas, but what I want most is a way to control outside noise. This is the superpower she wants. It would be so nice to be able to sit on my screened in porch and enjoy listening to the birds without having to hear nearby traffic, which sounds like drag racing these days. Well, that's because it is drag racing, Jennifer. We're drag racing in your neighborhood. If sounds are waves, can't we block some? How have we not invented an open air type of noise canceling headphones to shield noise waves and give us some quiet spaces outdoors.

25:45

Speaker A

Interesting. I mean, the simple solution here is just more electric vehicles. They're quieter. You don't sound like drag racing. Obviously there's a whole bunch of emission standards that also reduce noise from internal combustion engines. At least until you chop the exhaust and straight pipe that thing. But if you're not doing that or

26:21

Speaker B

you engine swap your Model 3.

26:42

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah. I don't know. Is this possible? Could you just put out a big speaker that selectively noise cancels car noise but not bird noise? That seems possible. Seems possible.

26:44

Speaker B

I personally, I would, you know, take my home. I'd get really thick windows. Ideally lead paint. The whole home.

26:58

Speaker A

You know, lead paint. Just love the lead paint.

27:05

Speaker B

And I'd bring the birds inside.

27:09

Speaker A

I got an alternative theory. If you got drag racers racing down your quiet, bird infested street, you gotta go Wile E. Coyote mode. You know, you gotta put out a fake tunnel out of bricks. Paint it with some lead paint. Maybe the fake tunnel, the drag racer smashes into the bricks, they'll never be racing down your street again.

27:11

Speaker D

Drop an anvil on the.

27:34

Speaker A

Yeah, dropping an anvil on the car. That works too.

27:35

Speaker B

We have to talk about the Rivian team because they sent you this demo unit to try R1s and they said it's a demo unit. So drive it as fast as you want. You can roll it. You can roll it if you want. It's no big deal. Just like really enjoy the car to the fullest. I was pretty surprised that they said that.

27:37

Speaker A

That was great. It's actually an amazing car. I like it. The self driving feature, deeply underrated. My latest hot take is that self driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM as LLM technology, and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it, it is not some insane, insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It in fact can be implemented in other vehicles. Just like we've seen Chipotle get a chatbot. We will see every car be autonomous. It will not be the domain of a single company. Funniest thing about this, you got someone who's asking for just a dishwasher that's a little bit taller. You got somebody who's asking for a smart spatula. And then you have Nolan Williams who says, I would like to see significant developments in cancer and longevity drugs. You're sitting there, you're going around with the Wall Street Journal and you're like, oh, what did you ask for smart spatula. Smart spatula. What did you ask for?

27:54

Speaker B

Longer life extension.

28:55

Speaker A

Curing cancer. You're like what? I didn't know it was that type of question. He says longer lives mean longer Runway for brilliant people to bring forth their own innovations and pass on their knowledge. Wow. Nolan Williams. Really, really great answer. Derek Thompson has a new newsletter out. He's breaking it down. He says there's never been a better time to get rich working alone.

28:56

Speaker B

Is he saying the goose is not valued?

29:19

Speaker A

I think he's saying the goose is not valued.

29:21

Speaker B

He's saying the goose is not valued.

29:24

Speaker A

He says the debate about AI and jobs often breaks down into two extreme groups, both of which have an evidence problem. On the one hand are the doomers who say AI will take everyone's job even though unemployment remains low and the unemployment rate for prime age Americans is still very high. On the other hand are the deniers whose insistence that AI is a worthless scam prevents them from seeing the many ways it's changing work and the economy broadly. If you want a strong and evidence based take about AI and jobs, I have one for you. Quote from Derek Thompson there's never been a better time for workers to get rich by going independent. This is the golden age for tiny startups with big revenue. The evidence charts 1 and 2 the number of solo entrepreneurs and tiny startups is taking off. Great news. Chart 3 There is rising evidence that these small firms are more likely to use AI and sell AI related products, whether it's software, consulting or design.

29:26

Speaker B

Chart 4 saying the matter is not the eggs, it's the goose itself is the true value is the power to keep laying eggs?

30:25

Speaker A

Yes, yes.

30:32

Speaker B

Okay, continue. I just want to make sure I

30:33

Speaker A

understood Today's micro startups are becoming multimillion dollar firms faster and more frequently than any generation of firms that stripe has measured. Today's article is about the rise of the solo act in the US labor force and its implications for the future of business social life. More solo entrepreneurs, even more aloneness and America's fiscal crisis. More pass through firms, even less tax revenue for a revenue starved government. Interesting. So if you have a bunch of talented people that would be earning money as doctors, but then they go in and they wind up starting a business, then yeah, maybe that's lower tax. That feels like that's further off. Is this a bull case for co working spaces? The rise of solo entrepreneurship?

30:35

Speaker B

Nothing is bullish for coworking spaces.

31:16

Speaker A

To me it's rough. Why is it bad? Why has no one been able to make a Good co working space because

31:19

Speaker B

I think it's just nice to have your own space. It's the same. I mean the same logic would be like, why don't they make an, you know, why don't they make an apartment building where you get a tiny little. I mean they do do this.

31:27

Speaker A

Why don't they have a pod?

31:41

Speaker B

Yeah, yeah, basically. I mean it's basically like imagine if you rented your apartment and it was actually like as big as like one.

31:43

Speaker A

Why don't they make like a smaller version of a house that you can rent that's like in a building with other, other like of these mini houses.

31:49

Speaker B

No, I'm just saying like a 20, a 10 foot by 10 foot room that you rent and then all the amenities are.

31:57

Speaker A

You would happily live in the Union Bomber shed. You were saying that it's the pinnacle of lifestyle.

32:03

Speaker B

I did think the picture of it

32:10

Speaker A

in stores looked cool, but it needed a slight solid.

32:12

Speaker B

But the difference there is like that shed on the right property would be very cool.

32:16

Speaker A

That's true, that's true.

32:21

Speaker B

But. But the property is sort of an amenity.

32:22

Speaker A

I don't know. We'll figure it out. Thank you for watching TVPN. We'll be back tomorrow at 11am Pacific.

32:25

Speaker B

Oh, hang out with us. We'll close it out.

32:31

Speaker A

Give us five stars on our podcast and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter@tvpn.com.

32:32