InvestTalk

How to Invest During Stagflation: What Rising Manufacturing Costs Mean for Your Portfolio

42 min
May 6, 202628 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

InvestTalk discusses stagflation risks as U.S. manufacturing input costs hit 4-year highs, exploring portfolio implications of rising inflation, declining growth, and negative real yields. Host Justin Klein analyzes Q1 GDP growth driven primarily by AI investment, examines individual stock opportunities across consumer, financial, and industrial sectors, and previews strategies for navigating an inflationary environment.

Insights
  • Stagflation creates a bind for the Fed: rising inflation (core PCE at 3.2%) combined with declining manufacturing employment (46.4) limits policy options and erodes purchasing power through negative real yields
  • Earnings growth in inflationary environments can remain strong due to pricing power from industry consolidation, but this is sector-dependent and may not persist if inflation becomes sticky
  • In stagflation, traditional bond-equity diversification breaks down as both asset classes decline together; investors need to focus on companies with pricing power, strong cash flows, and solid balance sheets
  • Q1 GDP growth of 2% was driven almost entirely by AI-related business investment (50% of growth), while consumer spending decelerated and inflation accelerated, signaling potential economic headwinds
  • Technical analysis and momentum matter as much as valuation in this environment; low P/E ratios alone don't signal buying opportunities if relative strength and chart patterns are deteriorating
Trends
Manufacturing input costs at highest levels in 4 years; ISM prices paid index at 84.6 (highest since May 2022) with largest 3-month increase in series historyAI investment driving GDP growth while consumer spending decelerates, suggesting uneven economic expansion and potential consumer weakness aheadNegative real yields likely to persist, supporting gold prices and benefiting upstream energy producers and companies with pricing powerConsolidation in mature industries (payments, retail, banking) creating pricing power but limiting growth opportunities for investorsConsumer discretionary sector under pressure; earnings growth expectations declining for cosmetics and e-commerce platforms despite revenue growthBanks benefiting from inflationary environment with rising earnings expectations, particularly regional banks like Customer BancorpSoftware companies facing disruption risk from AI; traditional platforms like Shopify vulnerable to AI-powered alternativesMiddle East geopolitical tensions creating oil price volatility and supply chain uncertainty for raw materials and importsFederal government spending surge in Q1 (up 9.3% YoY) may not sustain, creating potential GDP headwind in Q2Residential investment declining, suggesting housing market weakness despite strong new home sales data
Topics
Stagflation Economics and Portfolio StrategyManufacturing Input Costs and Supply Chain InflationNegative Real Yields and Asset AllocationQ1 GDP Growth Composition and Consumer Spending TrendsAI Investment Impact on Economic GrowthPricing Power and Industry ConsolidationTechnical Analysis in Inflationary MarketsBanking Sector Performance in InflationConsumer Discretionary Stock ValuationsSoftware Platform Disruption from AIMiddle East Geopolitical Risk and Oil MarketsFree Cash Flow Analysis for Value InvestingBalance Sheet Quality and Debt LevelsShare Buyback vs. Debt Reduction StrategiesRelative Strength Index and Momentum Trading
Companies
Fiserv
Payment processing company with declining margins (37.8% to 29.7%), high debt ($32B enterprise value vs $30B market c...
Shopify
E-commerce platform trading at 85x P/E with declining profits despite 34% revenue growth; identified as vulnerable to...
ELF Beauty
Cosmetic company with strong historical growth (10x earnings since 2019) but declining earnings expectations for 2025...
Terex Corporation
Industrial equipment manufacturer (cranes and work platforms) with 12x earnings multiple, solid profitability (39% RO...
Abercrombie & Fitch
Apparel retailer recovered from 2020 lows, now at $78 with 10x earnings growth and strong free cash flow; identified ...
Customer Bancorp
Regional bank benefiting from inflationary environment with 35% earnings growth expected this year; relative strength...
Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF
Mid-cap value ETF focusing on free cash flow with 10.28% 5-year return but underperformance in recent years; recommen...
Tesla
Referenced as example of narrative-driven company with elevated valuations despite share dilution; host skeptical of ...
SpaceX
Elon Musk company with anticipated IPO; host skeptical of valuation and business model despite strong narrative and m...
Apple
Up 2.6% on earnings day; mentioned in context of potential chip manufacturing partnership with Intel for M-series pro...
Intel
Up 13% on news of potential collaboration with Apple to produce M-series chips, signaling manufacturing opportunity
Micron
Semiconductor company up 11% on earnings day, benefiting from AI investment trends
Microsoft
Down on earnings day despite broader market gains; included in mixed earnings performance analysis
Meta
Down on earnings day; included in mixed earnings performance analysis
NVIDIA
Down on earnings day despite AI investment tailwinds; included in mixed earnings performance analysis
Visa
Down on earnings day; included in financial services sector analysis
Berkshire Hathaway
Down on earnings day; included in mixed earnings performance analysis
MasterCard
Down on earnings day; included in financial services sector analysis
American Express
Down on earnings day; included in financial services sector analysis
Uber
Referenced as example of company that lost money for extended period before achieving profitability and market dominance
People
Justin Klein
Host and primary analyst discussing stagflation, portfolio strategy, and individual stock recommendations throughout ...
Quotes
"Hope is not a strategy. A lot of people, unfortunately, they buy something and go, well, I hope it comes back. Hope is not a strategy."
Justin KleinOpening segment
"The reality is we are in a bit of a crack-up boom. Inflation is accelerating, and that is the antithesis typically of a bear market in equities. Why? Because earnings are not priced in real terms. They're priced nominally."
Justin KleinOpening segment
"In a stagflationary environment, you often get stocks and bonds moving together. So they're no longer a diversifier."
Justin KleinStagflation analysis segment
"Companies can raise capital in multiple ways. The main reason for a lot of companies that lose money consistently is issuing shares. That's it, right?"
Justin KleinVoicemail question response
"I believe in economic gravity. And at some point gravity will take hold."
Justin KleinSpaceX discussion
Full Transcript
On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on investtalk.com, and for our podcast subscribers, this is InvestTalk. Independent thinking, shared success. InvestTalk is made possible by KPP Financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the United States. Here is KPP Financial Chief Executive Officer, Financial Advisor, Justin Klein. Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to another edition of Investoc. Happy Cinco de Mayo to everyone out there. Now, there are certain moving parts in today's market and financial news, and we are here to unpack them all for you. Lots of disgust, a lot of pitfalls, a lot of opportunities, a very different market than people are used to, which means you have to shift your mindset so that you can be successful. It's not about chasing the headlines. It's not about chasing the sexiest names in the market. It's about the reality on the ground. The reality is we are in a bit of a crack-up boom. Inflation is accelerating, and that is the antithesis typically of a bear market in equities. Why? Because earnings are not priced in real terms. They're priced nominally. So all that inflation, all those higher prices, it feels bad for you, the consumer, but it typically is pretty good for earnings. And you've seen that with the latest earnings season and guidance going forward. So these are examples of things that we will discuss on today's show and moving forward. The show isn't about narratives. The show isn't about being Kramer, banging bells and whistles, and having crazy graphics. No, it's about simple down-to-earth principles and being frank about the realities on the ground without bias, without preferring one sector or another, one asset class or another, one political party or another. All those things don't matter because the market does not care. Does not care what you think. Does not care about your hopes and dreams. They say hope is not a strategy. A lot of people, unfortunately, they buy something and go, well, I hope it comes back. I hope I made the right decision. Hope is not a strategy. We are here to help you develop a strategy that works for you based on reality, based on the facts on the ground. That's what the show is about each and every day. And the way that we help you is by answering your finance and investment questions and bringing you data and relevant information and perspective so that you can make better decisions with your money. That's what this is all about. And so that ends. I want to remind you of one of our most popular events coming up. It is our new InvestTalk Wealth webinar. It is happening online tomorrow. Yes, under 24 hours. It would be tomorrow at 1 p.m. Pacific time. You're talking roughly 21 hours away. The free webinar. Dealing with a topic most people are struggling with right now. In their daily lives as well as their portfolios. And that is inflation. We're going to talk about where to allocate. What's overweight. How to find value. So don't just mark your calendars. Go and sign up. Because like I said, less than 24 hours away. Register now over at besttalk.com. Now in just a bit, we'll talk about today's market performance. We'll run down the show topics for the hour. But as usual, we're going to tackle this first caller question now. I wanted to see what your thoughts are on ticker symbol C-O-W-Z, cows. It's an ETF, free cash flow ETF. Just want to get your opinion on it. Thank you so much for all you do. Look forward to hearing my question on the program. Bye-bye. Looking at C-O-W-Z, this is the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF. It basically is a mid-cap value ETF, but what it's focusing on are companies that produce strong cash flow. mainly smaller and mid-cap names. Now, if you look at the performance, the five-year return, total return, about 10.28%. The category is about 8%. The index is at about 9%, so it's outperformed. Good performer. That's the five-year. The three-year, more middling. It's actually underperformed. It's up 14.5%. It sounds great, but the category is up 15. The index is up 16.5%. So it's in the 60th percentile, which means it's slightly below average. Last year was only up 9%. The index was up 13%. This year it's up 5.4%. The index is up 7.7%. So historically, since its existence, it's been pretty good but not great. Now, I like the process here where it's focusing more on cash flows. I do like that. But it doesn't guarantee it's going to outperform. it's probably going to perform more like a mid-cap value ETF. So I don't mind it, but I think there's better opportunities out there. What I would do is actually dig into the holdings of the portfolio and say, do your own analysis, figure out which names kind of line up with your overall long-term thesis, ones that have strong economic moats. Those are the names that I would probably be trying to add. Now, we have a lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so. Time for a minute. We get to all of it. And our main focus point is about stagflation. What rising manufacturing costs mean for your portfolio? Overall, U.S. manufacturing input costs are at their highest level in four years. But the sector as a whole is steady. It's not one of the best performers or one of the worst performers. It's hanging in there. But this is a classic precursor to stagflation, where costs rise faster than overall growth. That's what you're seeing. And in that environment, stagflation is one of the most difficult macro environments to navigate. So we're going to look at how to understand this type of environment and adjust your portfolio accordingly. We're going to dig into that story. We also have voice bank calls. One is on Fiserv and the other is how companies survive without profits. We also have other topics on the docket as well. One is in regards to Q1 GDP. What was that driven by? And lastly, does trade drive peace? I want to talk about that earlier. an earlier show, but we never got to it. So hopefully we'll get to that one today as well. But most importantly, we'll be your live calls. If you have any question at all, don't hesitate to reach out. But we're going to head into a break. Please remember you can call anytime and leave your question on the InvestTalk Voice Bank. If you're listening via our live stream or possibly on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 888-99-CHART. Hang on because I plan to talk about today's market activity in the next segment. It's time again for one of our most popular special events, a new InvestTalk Wealth Webinar. Wednesday, May 6th at 1 p.m. Pacific. The webinar will focus on a topic a lot of investors are dealing with right now. The new Wealth Webinar is titled How to Protect Your Portfolio from Inflation, Where to Allocate, What's Overweight, and How to Find Value. We're going to talk about where investors may want to look when cash is losing value, what parts of the market have historically held up better during inflationary periods, and how to think about finding real value when a lot of the market still feels expensive. And we'll also spend some time on how inflation can distort valuations, because that's something investors really need to understand in this kind of environment. And as usual, we'll close out the webinar with a live Q&A session. It's all happening online tomorrow at 1 p.m. Pacific Time. Register now at InvestTalk.com. 888-99-CHART, 888-992-4278. That's how you get through and ask your question on today's show. Now, let's take a quick look at the market today. Overall, it was another green candle on the chart. Looks like we're powering up to probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 7,400 on the S&P. Right now, we're at 7,200. 7,400 is the next level of resistance. overall you had some good earnings you continue to see earnings come in strong market reacting nicely to to earnings let me look at the heat map uh there we go okay apple up 2.6 percent of the day micron up 11 on the day intel up another 13 on news that they could be working with Apple to produce some of their M-series chips. Overall, though, kind of a mixed bag. You had names like Microsoft, Meta, and NVIDIA down. Visa, Berkshire, MasterCard also down. American Express down with some parts of financials up. So even though the market was solidly green with the S&P up, let's see, what was the S&P up? Up 0.8% of 1%. NASDAQ up a little over 1%. It did kind of close on the weaker side. So I thought that was interesting. Overall, you had the economic numbers that came in on the services side kind of mixed and negative. So we had the April ISM services came in at 53.6. Consensus was 53.7. So slight miss there, down from 54 in March. New orders fell month over month to 53 from over 60 Still expansionary territory but not great employment index did increase from 45 to 48 but still below 50 which is contraction And then prices stayed steady at 70.7, the highest since 2022, October of 2022. Then you had the April, excuse me, April S&P services PMI. So similar, but coming out of S&P versus ISM. That came in at 51. Consensus was 52.1. It flagged the first decline in demand since April of last year. So that is telling a different story on the services side. Remember, as much as we can talk about manufacturing and all of that, services are about 70% of the economy. So this is where you would see a downshift in the overall economy. And you got that. Not a dramatic one, but notable. Moderate deceleration in overall economic growth on that side. March new home sales came at 682,000. Consensus was 655,000. So that was strong. Pretty good demand on that side. What else did we get? You had treasuries a bit stronger, yields down one to three basis points across the curve. Dollar index up 0.1%, gold up 0.8%, silver roughly flat. Bitcoin futures up 2%, back above 82,000. WTI crude down 3.9% after being at 4.4% on Monday. So a lot of choppiness there. Continued optimism in the Middle East that they'll come to some sort of resolution. Although I'm not seeing it. I think there's just going to be a longer-term stalemate that I think the market's underrating. So we'll see how that goes. But that was the market today for May 5th, Cinco de Mayo. Let's go to a YouTube comment question. Ulam Spiral says, Justin, you have been skeptical of Tesla in the past. What do you think about SpaceX IPO, crazy valuation, accelerated inclusion in the Qs? You know, I've certainly underestimated the narrative, ability of companies like Tesla, SpaceX as well, to spin a juicy narrative and command a premium. Now, how much of that is some sort of market mechanics? That's certainly possible. This is one of those things where it's so far out of what I understand to be good investing. What historically works, which is companies that produce good cash flows, that have good balance sheets, that aren't consistently issuing shares to dilute shareholders. That's what all the Elon companies do typically. But the price keeps going up. The valuations stay elevated. I believe in economic gravity. and at some point gravity will take hold now is that a complete breakdown in the elon narrative who knows he wants to get the 10 trillion dollars in net worth i think that's ridiculous but hey people in a world where people despise politicians they think certain people were going to save the world and a lot of people think elon is one of those people i disagree does that make me want to buy SpaceX IPO no so passing on there we're into a break give me a call now at 888-99-CHART there are a few things that make KPP financial special one of them is parallel investing this means they invest right alongside their clients here's how it works when KPP Financial makes a trade for their clients. Justin Klein makes the same trade for himself and KPP on the same day at the same price and same percentage. No front running, no special treatment. Learn more about parallel investing at investtalk.com. Hey, Luke and Justin, Joe from Philadelphia here. Call about Pfizer Incorporated, ticker FISV. They just had their quarterly earnings, and the stock is down roughly 8%, 9% right now. And I was wondering what you guys thought about picking this up for a long-term hold. And the P-E ratio is pretty historically low. And I believe that they are still generating about over $5 billion per quarter in revenue and a lot of free cash flow as well. So I wanted to get your thoughts if this would be a good spot to pick it up at for a long hold. I know that there's going to be some volatility near term, but this is more for long term. Thanks for what you guys do. We really all appreciate you. Thank you so much. Bye. Looking at Fiserv, a name that is down considerably back in just the beginning or early part of last year, it was at $237 per share. And now it's at $57 per share. Well, what has changed? That is simply growth. Now, for everyone else out there, this is a payment company, Fiserv. Last quarter, you had revenue down 2%. Earnings down 16%. This quarter expected revenue down 3%, earnings down 20%. This year in aggregate, earnings are expected to be down 6% after being down 2% last year. And you might look and say, well, it's supposed to earn $9 per share next year. It's a $57 stock. It's extremely low, called six, seven times forward-looking earnings. But it has a big issue. You look at its organic revenue, declined 4% year over year, with merchant and financial segments down 1% and 6% respectively. And then the big issue, margins declined from 37.8% all the way to 29.7%. And it could very well drop further as the company is reinvesting in growth. The problem is in a mature market, it's very expensive, very difficult to keep growth going. And so free cash flow is down. Return on equity, which peaked back in 2019, 2018, excuse me, at 54%, is at 13%, which is solid, but not amazing. But the most difficult problem here is that their market cap at $30 billion is dwarfed by their enterprise value of $62 billion, which means that net-net, they have about $32 billion. in debt. So why free cash flow is strong, it is now in decline. And it's probably all going to go to repairing the balance sheet, reducing the overall debt. No dividend yield, which is good because it needs to put that cash flow towards paying down debt. And it stopped buying back shares pretty much over the past couple of quarters. In fact, last quarter, they issued a few shares to workers, but still. This is the type of company, and the technicals, I didn't even talk about the chart. Real strength is 10. There's nothing bullish about the chart at all. so i don't see a bottom here i need a capitulatory event it had decent volume today after earnings but nothing crazy so it's the name i keep my watch list because at some point it's cheap enough but they have to repair their balance sheet first so they do that i'm passing them looks like a value trap to me let's play two in a row from 888.99 chart hello justin lube this is paulo from davisberg calling um i have a question about terex corporation ticker symbol is tx it's an industrial name and i have it in my portfolio i'm curious what you guys think about this company all right looking forward to the answer at the podcast and i always love the show and i wish you a good one bye bye well thank you for the call looking at terex corporation what do they do they manufacture and market aerial work platforms and materials processing machinery so mainly their business is cranes cranes on work sites effectively what they do seven billion dollar market cap it's growing look at its earnings expectations for this year sorry it's not growing earnings were down 90 last year done one percent this year so it's a return to growth next year. It's at 12 times earnings. It's in an uptrend, solid. Look at their profitability. Turn equity only 4%. Decent cash flow, decent balance sheet, a little bit of a dividend. What is it doing with its cash flow? It's not really buying back shares. And the technals are okay. I just think there's much better opportunities with your money. I'm passing on the next invest stock. We'll look into this question. Is a recession coming in 2026? How markets sleepwalk into economic downturns. That's tomorrow, but for now, I'm Justin Klein, and we are ready to take your calls anytime at 888-99-SHARK. Ever feel like your team's scaling efforts are hitting a wall? It's usually not a budget issue. It's a knowledge gap. Critical processes live in people's heads, and manual documentation is just too painful to actually finish. This is exactly why I'm excited about today's sponsor, Scribe. Scribe is a workflow AI platform that captures any process in real time and builds step-by-step guides automatically. 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Have you ever noticed that on some days when you open your closet to select what you want to wear, you may not see clothing that makes you think, okay this is perfect Well that experience used to be my experience but no longer because I using quints If your instinct is to be more intentional about what you wear day to day and you want to lean into pieces that feel easy and comfortable yet still look put together and balanced, Quince should be your go-to. The fabrics feel elevated, the fits are clean, and everything just works without needing to overthink it. Quince makes getting dressed simpler. Quince has all the wardrobe staples for spring. Think 100% European linen shorts and shirts from $34. Lightweight, breathable, and comfortable. And clean 100% Pima cotton tees with a softness that's got to be felt. Their pants also hit a good balance. Relaxed and comfortable, but still polished enough to wear pretty much anywhere. 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So I get through and ask your question on today's show. Now, our main focus point is about stagflation and what rising manufacturing costs means for your portfolio. If you look at things like ISM prices paid index in April, the index was up 6.3 points to 84.6, the highest reading since May of 2022. The three-month trajectory, up 25.6 points. That's since January, the largest three-month increase in the history of the ISM series. Now, what's causing this? Really, three main factors. high oil prices we know because of the iran conflict then you have layer on top of that blockade of straits and hormones so not just locking in oil supply but the supply of a lot of raw materials that go into physical products and on top of that you have import tariffs on steel aluminum adding to overall costs That's why you have a three-month trajectory, the highest ever. And that has hit employment. And manufacturing employment fell to 46.4 in April. And this increase in costs and fall in employment is what we call stagflation, which effectively puts the Fed in a bind. Core inflation is up 3.2%, core PCE. And that has pushed the market to pretty much abandon hope of much of a rate cut this year. The question is, what are the ultimate side effects of that? Most likely, as inflation rises and the Fed does nothing to combat it, what you'll have are negative real yields. That's how it works. You'll stay flat. Inflation goes up. You subtract higher inflation from those yields. You get lower real yields. And often goes negative. What happens when it goes negative? Well, number one, your purchasing power gets eroded because the interest that you're getting on cash is no longer keeping up with inflation, which means that you typically put your money in something that will keep up with inflation, and that's gold. So will gold have another attack on new highs at some point in the next 12, 18 months? Most likely. Then there's the companies that, in some ways, as long as they're not dramatically impacted by what's gone in the Middle East, They benefit from these higher prices, the 84.6 price level on the ISM manufacturing prices paid index. And those are upstream energy producers, industrial companies that are able to pass along the cost, consumer discretionary companies that are also able to pass along the cost that are pricing power. And then industrial metal companies, or once again, metal companies whose production is mainly outside of those regions affected. This is one of the reasons why you see earnings per share coming in Q1 very strong. And then the rest of the year, projections are strong as well because most of these companies, they feel the ability to raise their prices and pass those along. especially over the past what 15 20 years there's been a lot of consolidation in a lot of industries a lot of m&a why because they've been able to borrow cheap borrow cheap to fund these acquisitions so once again there's been a lot of consolidation of power within various sectors and so this is a reason for them to continue to raise prices so this is why knowing and understanding what's going on within different industries can certainly impact your ability to find opportunities. Sometimes those price increases are going to be short-lived because maybe that pricing power is short-lived, most likely will have some major correction, or sometimes it'll be sticky because it's a somewhat captured industry. All of this means a market environment, investing environment that is very different from the past. Then there's the bond side. A lot of times people, investors look at bonds, they think safe. But in a stagflationary environment, you often get stocks and bonds moving together. So they're no longer a diversifier. Why is that? Because higher inflation beats higher interest rates. If you own longer duration bonds, you get bonds declining, not rallying. So how do you manage through this? A lot of tensions going on between what's going on at the Fed, federal government, businesses, and ultimately the end investor. And this is where we call qualitative analysis comes in. Stagflation is relatively quantitative. What's inflation doing? What's growth doing? In today's world, what are politicians going to do? Are we going to pull back from the Middle East? Is the Fed going to cut rates or raise rates? Is Congress going to step in and try to make some changes in some way? All of this makes this investment environment different, more challenging. And that's something we're going to talk a little bit more in depth on tomorrow on the webinars. This is kind of a preview of that. We talk a lot about this and much, much more what sectors, what asset classes tend to do well in this inflationary environment. Now this is InvestDoc and let's pivot back to the 24-7 Voice Bank for a question that came in earlier. Hi guys, this is Erin from Florida. I'm calling to see your opinion on two stocks. The first being Elf Beauty, E-L-F. And the second being Shopify, S-H-O-P. And what are your thoughts on that for long term? Thanks. Looking at Elf and Shopify. I'll start with Shopify. Shopify has been a secular grower, typically trading at high multiples. Currently, P-E ratio is 85. If you go based on next year's earnings of $2.35, I guess that's closer to 50 times. But it's now in a downtrend. Relative strength is 19. That means only 19 companies have performed worse than it over the past year. And it had earnings. and those earnings were not great. Revenue was up 34%, but profits were down 7%. Now, part of this is input costs, but I think the bigger part is that this is a software name. And in the world of AI, do you need the Shopify platform anymore? When AI can build a website for you, can code a website for you, can recommend all the different features to add to your website in order to up your e-commerce game, you don't need Shopify. So to me, I think this is a stone cold short. To me, this is one of the names that is probably most at risk in the AI software revolution. So I would run, I would short it, go for that, but definitely would not own Shopify. buy. Now, Elf, a little bit different. More insulated from AI, but not insulated from the consumer. It's a cosmetic company, also a secular grower. Earnings and revenue growing consistently up until recently. Last, two years ago, let's call it, 2024, revenues are up 77%. Earnings are up 92%. Made $3.18. That's up from $0.32 just back in 2019 pre-pandemic. 10x increase in earnings. So huge growth in just about six years. But 2025, earnings only up 7% with revenue up 28. This year, earnings are expected to be down 8% with revenue up 23%. So the P ratio is now down to 17. much more reasonably priced than Shopify. My issue, though, is very similar to Shopify, is that the chart is not that great. Relative strength on Elf is even worse than Shopify. It's at seven. Seven. It means that over the last year, only seven companies have performed worse than, or sorry, 7% of the companies have performed worse than Elf. so to bare minimum I need the stock to start to perform I need some momentum here momentum to the upside not the downside and it's pressing on 52 week lows and to me it wants to break lower and is it a indictment on the consumer that earnings expectations for next year continue to decline so both of these names i would pass on i probably wouldn short elf i think it a much better business still solid profitability good cash flow about 200 million on a three billion dollar cap three billion dollar market cap three and a half billion dollar market cap so you know decent valuation at this point so i think you're getting in the zone to potentially buy alpha once again it needs to either have a big gap down on huge volume and have capitulation and have everybody just throw it out and give up on the name then i would might be interested in but until then i think it's going to continue to grind lower and i'd keep it on the sidelines let's take a youtube comment question and naveen says can you please check and share your thoughts on a n f this is abercrombie and fitch a and f is the symbol a great company back in the early aughts early 2000s did very well and then their clothes kind of went out of style but they stuck around stayed in business i believe let's see zoom out to it let's give you one of those names i want bankrupt and came back certainly possible no yeah just kind of stuck around yeah it was a big big boom times in the early 2000s then fell off a cliff during the financial crisis obviously hit a low back in 2017 around 12 hit that again in 2020 and had a higher low about 15 in 2022 and then took off in 23 and 24. Hit a high in mid 2024, around 100, almost $200 per share. Now it's come down about $78 per share. You have earnings this year, so it's $10.74. That's up 9% year over year. Then another 10% next year, $11.83. And it's a $78 stock. So pretty low multiple. I kind of like that. Let me take a look at the balance sheet because that's going to be very important. After years of really struggling, they lost money for a number of years. Market cap of $3.5 billion. Yeah, not a lot of debt. Only about $400 million in debt. Good free cash flow at $378 million. But once again, is the market telling you that the consumer is weak with the recent sell-off? It rallied on earnings. I forget when that was. It was late last year. then rolled over had poor earnings back in january it's on decline but there is probably good support down close to a 52 week low this is the type of name that i probably sell some puts down around 65 that's potential entry point is at 78 50 now turn equities 39 i'm kind of liking what i'm seeing good cash flow good balance sheets high profitability its earnings are still rising Yeah, revenue growth is only up 4%. It's buying back shares. So this type of thing that I want to accumulate over time, over the short term, it's bearish. Over the medium term, it's neutral. Over the longer term, it's now in an uptrend after the breakout in 2023 and 2024. So I would actually be, I'm honestly positive on Abercrombie & Fitch over the medium term, even if near term, you're going to have some potential headwinds from the consumer. Consumer pressure on gas prices, etc. Let's squeeze in one more quick voicemail call. I'm calling about C-U-V-I Quby. I was just wondering what you think about that in this sort of environment of inflation and stuff like that. Anyway, love the show. Keep doing what you do and have a good one. Looking at Quby, customer Bancorp, typically an inflationary environment, is good for banks. Why? Because prices are going up. Earnings are going up. They're able to pay off your debts, whether you're a consumer or a business. And the chart here is pretty solid. It's certainly outperforming some of the other banks that are out there. Relative strength at 61. Once again, trending in a positive manner. Earnings expectations up 35% this year. 13% next year. A solid name. I kind of like QB. C-U-B-I, Customer Bank Corp. Now, this is InvestTalk. I'm Justin Klein. We have one goal here each and every weekday is to help you achieve your own version of financial freedom. Whenever it continues after this final break, so get your questions in now at 888-99-SHARM. The calls are free. The unbiased answers are free. So what are you waiting for? Call InvestTalk, 888-99-CHART. Hey guys, I have a non-stock-witted question. So I see a lot of businesses, a lot of stocks, that they are losing money quarter over quarter. And they're not making any money, they're still listed. So my question is, how is it they're still able to run as a business and not make money for years over years? The stock price keeps declining, but yet they're still in a business. They are still working, producing parts or products, and they're still into the business. But they're not making profit. How is it possible? Where are they getting additional money from? That something is baffling me. I am not a business person, so it's also a question to understand. I will be listening. Thank you, guys, as always, for all the information. Thank you. Bye. All right. The simple question is, how can companies survive without making money? Very simple. It's called raising capital. Companies can raise capital in multiple ways. The main reason for a lot of companies that lose money consistently, I think biotech companies, tech companies, growth companies in general, typically issuing shares. That's it, right? Tesla's issued shares for a long period of time, losing money. And that was their main growth driver. It was just issuing more and more shares. That's the shareholder, but it's selling the dream that eventually those losses will turn into profits, that growth will turn into sustainable businesses. And sometimes that works out. You think of like an Uber, lost money for a long period of time, and then figured out how to dominate the market, gain market share, and they eventually made money. And those shareholders that bought early on did fairly well. But they can also raise debt. Now, debt is more difficult because it takes more cash flow. You issue shares, there's no additional cash flow needed, as long as you don't pay a dividend, which usually companies that don't have earnings, they don't pay dividends. So most of those companies, once again, are issuing shares. They're diluting shareholders. That's where their capital is coming from. That's where their money is coming from. It's not coming from their business. Thanks for the call. Let's talk about the economy as a whole. We had Q1 GDP come in last week and showed that overall real growth, inflation-adjusted growth, came at 2% in the first quarter. The economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected 2.2% growth, so slight disappointment, but still better than the fourth quarter, which was about a half percent growth. Now, what drove the growth in Q1? It was mainly AI. Things like equipment and intellectual property products, that's where most of the growth came from. Overall business investment increased 10.4% on an annualized rate in the first quarter, the strongest growth in nearly three years. Overall, AI investment counted for about half of the overall GDP growth in the first quarter because the consumer actually decelerated. It still grew. Consumer spending was up 1.6% in the first quarter, but slower than the 1.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Consumers spent more on things like healthcare. As you imagine, we have an aging population, but they spend less on goods. Personal consumption expenditures, price index, that was at 4.5% in the first quarter compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter. So that means inflation accelerated based on that reading. overall business investment up like i said 1.4 percent consumer spending up about 1.2 that was slight deceleration from q q4 federal government spending this is where things change dramatically in the first quarter federal government spending was up 9.3 percent year over year part of that is just the way our budget rolled out but also it was fourth quarter it was down 16 percent mainly because of a government shutdown. So that was a big shift in Q1. So we'll see if that continues in Q2. Then you had inventory builds. That was a positive contribution to Q1. State and local governments spend a little bit more. But residential investment, that was actually worse. So that was probably the biggest drag in the quarter. Well, that about does it. I'm Justin Klein reminding you about KTP Financial's parallel investing. We make a trade for our clients. We make the same trade for ourselves. Same day, same price, same percentage. No front running, no special treatments. We invest right alongside our clients. And you can learn more by heading over to investtalk.com. And please tell your friends and family about our free podcast downloads. You can find any time at iTunes or Spotify. And check out our YouTube videos as well. And be sure to rate and review on iTunes. Don't forget to register for the new Wealth Webinar coming up tomorrow. Now, what are we, 20 hours away? You can learn more by heading over to investtalk.com. Independent thinking shows success. This is InvestTalk. Good night. InvestTalk is a trademark of KPP Financial. Because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program, It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them. Specifically, nothing said shall be taken to be investment advice, or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security. 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