Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 2/27/26

44 min
Feb 28, 2026about 2 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Jim Cramer analyzes February's market turmoil dominated by tech selloffs and inflation concerns, highlighting winners like consumer staples and losers like software stocks. He interviews Sterling Infrastructure CEO Joe Cotillo about the company's transformation into a high-margin data center construction play, and dissects Flutter Entertainment's disappointing earnings and market share losses to prediction markets.

Insights
  • Data center construction is becoming a massive, multi-year business requiring specialized labor and project management expertise, with individual projects worth $300M-$500M per building
  • Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) are materially impacting traditional online sportsbooks' business models, though management remains in denial about the competitive threat
  • The $100 billion spending announcements by tech giants should be normalized as the new entry cost for competitive data center infrastructure, not viewed as excessive
  • Market rotation favoring consumer staples and industrials over software/hardware reflects inflation concerns and interest rate uncertainty rather than fundamental tech weakness
  • Margin-focused business strategies that avoid commoditized markets outperform revenue-growth-at-all-costs approaches, as demonstrated by Sterling Infrastructure's 1,800% five-year return
Trends
Data center construction emerging as critical infrastructure bottleneck limiting AI/cloud expansionPrediction markets disrupting traditional sports betting despite regulatory advantages of online booksMarket preference shifting from high-growth tech to profitable, cash-generative industrials and consumer brandsLabor shortage in skilled trades (electricians, heavy equipment operators) constraining infrastructure buildoutNormalization of $100B+ capital expenditure plans as baseline for hyperscaler competitivenessMargin expansion through specialization and technology (AI, drones) replacing low-bid commodity competitionInflation persistence driving investor caution on leveraged growth stories and unprofitable venturesNuclear power becoming critical infrastructure component for data center energy demands
Topics
Data Center Construction EconomicsPrediction Markets vs. Sports BettingTech Stock Selloffs and Sector RotationInflation and Interest Rate ImpactCapital Expenditure Planning ($100B+ commitments)Skilled Labor Shortage in ConstructionAI Infrastructure BuildoutOnline Sports Betting Market Share ErosionMargin vs. Revenue Growth StrategyPrivate Credit and Financial StabilityEarnings Guidance and Market ExpectationsConsumer Staples OutperformanceNVIDIA and Semiconductor WeaknessTariff Impact on Supply ChainsPortfolio Management and Conviction Investing
Companies
Sterling Infrastructure
CEO Joe Cotillo discusses transformation from low-margin highway work to high-margin data center construction, with 1...
Flutter Entertainment
Parent of FanDuel; reported disappointing Q4 earnings with weak guidance, losing market share to prediction markets d...
NVIDIA
Semiconductor leader heavily sold off in February; Cramer maintains conviction despite stock weakness and discusses a...
OpenAI
Raised $110B at $730B valuation; committed $100B to Amazon chip purchases, exemplifying massive data center infrastru...
Amazon Web Services
Major hyperscaler customer of Marvell Tech chips; sold out of recent chip offerings due to high AI infrastructure demand
DraftKings
Online sportsbook competitor to Flutter; stock down over 50% in six months due to prediction market competition
Polymarket
Prediction market platform competing with traditional sports betting; gaining volume share from DraftKings and FanDuel
Kalshi
Prediction market competitor; has Trump administration support and backing from Don Jr., threatening traditional spor...
PepsiCo
Consumer staples winner in February market rotation away from tech stocks
Procter & Gamble
Consumer staples winner outperforming in February amid tech sector weakness
Berkshire Hathaway
New CEO Greg Abel to present at shareholder meeting; expected to adopt lower-key style than predecessor
Marvell Technology
Semiconductor company with major hyperscaler partnerships; Cramer recommends buying ahead of earnings report
Caterpillar
Industrial equipment manufacturer; CEO to discuss data center generator applications at ConExpo trade show
Disney
Cramer suggests acquiring Norwegian Cruise Line to build cruise ship capacity and strengthen vacation business
Norwegian Cruise Line
Cruise operator targeted by Elliott Management activism; Cramer proposes Disney acquisition as strategic solution
Target
Retail company with new CEO Mike Fiddelke; facing scale disadvantage vs. Amazon, Walmart, Costco
CrowdStrike
Cybersecurity firm; stock compressed after Anthropic entered AI safety space, but Cramer maintains conviction
Broadcom
$1.5T semiconductor and software company; Cramer views as too difficult to own despite quality due to market sentiment
Costco
Membership retailer; key metric is card renewal rates, which are declining among younger demographics
Starbucks
Coffee retailer facing tariff headwinds; CEO Brian Nichol must close underperforming stores and expand midwest presence
People
Jim Cramer
Host of Mad Money; provides market analysis, stock recommendations, and interviews with company executives
Joe Cotillo
CEO of Sterling Infrastructure; discusses company's transformation from highway work to data center construction
Greg Abel
New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway; expected to present at shareholder meeting with lower-key style
Peter Jackson
CEO of Flutter Entertainment; discussed disappointing Q4 earnings and denied prediction market impact
Matt Murphy
CEO of Marvell Technology; Cramer expects strong earnings report due to hyperscaler partnerships
Joe Creed
CEO of Caterpillar; to discuss data center generator applications at ConExpo trade show
Josh DiMero
New CEO of Disney; has cruise ship industry background relevant to potential Norwegian acquisition
Mike Fiddelke
New CEO of Target; faces pressure to reinvent company's strategy against larger competitors
Brian Cornell
Former Target CEO; made gutsy decisions like closing Canadian division immediately upon taking role
Brian Nichol
CEO of Starbucks; must close underperforming stores and expand midwest presence amid tariff pressures
Elliott Hill
CEO of Nike; rebuilding company's earnings and product quality after period of underperformance
Todd McKinnon
CEO of Okta; identity protection company facing market skepticism about competitive advantages
George Kurtz
CEO of CrowdStrike; described as maniac for stopping cyberterrorism with offensive security approach
Carl Quintanilla
CNBC correspondent; discussed oil market impact on inflation with Cramer
Jeff Marks
Cramer's colleague; participates in Investing Club monthly meetings and portfolio decision-making
Quotes
"February, you will forever be known as a heartbreaker. You demolished software. You minimized hardware. And then you took apart the king, NVIDIA."
Jim CramerOpening segment
"I don't make a lot of money. You don't see a lot of high margin, high cash flow businesses in commodities. They're in a specialty high growth field."
Joe CotilloSterling Infrastructure interview
"We will always move towards better margin and better cash flow, you end up in markets that you don't necessarily think about today."
Joe CotilloSterling Infrastructure interview
"Clearly, denial is not just a river in Egypt. Who the heck does he think his company is losing market share to if not the prediction market."
Jim CramerFlutter Entertainment analysis
"When you decide to construct the biggest buildings in the world and stock them with the most expensive equipment in the world, all attached to a nuclear power plant, you better believe it's going to cost you a fortune."
Jim Cramer$100B spending segment
Full Transcript
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Borsten hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. Other people, my friends, I'm just trying to save a little bit of money here. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, to explain days like today. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. Goodbye, February. You will forever be known as a heartbreaker. You demolished software. You minimized hardware. And then you took apart the king, NVIDIA. And you decided that the winners were these prosaic companies with popular brands like PepsiCo won, Hershey, Procter & Gable, Colgate, or terrific drug company J&J, Novartis, AbbVie, or earthmovers like Caterpillar and Deere. Everything else, most likely, Pepperoid didn't ain't got nothing for you, okay? Including today, when the Dow plunged 521 points. S&P lost 0.43%, NASDAQ nosed by 0.92%, with some of the biggies really getting killed. It was a month of indecision because inflation is running hotter, But it was also a month that should have been better thanks to falling interest rates. The rates are really getting low again. On the other hand, it was a month where it dawned on people that obscure terms like private credit could spell real trouble if something goes wrong. I'm looking at you, Blue Owl. I don't know if you are ready for this amount of scrutiny. Will the negativity continue into March? We might find out this very weekend as the president seems eager to go to war with Iran. The markets haven't been rattled by his saber rattling, although oil's up 17 percent year to date. And when I spoke to Carl Quintanilla today, it's become such a big part of the inflation story that, well, people get nervous. Now, we are washing oil. So let's not freak out, please. That rally came entirely from predictions that a ramble shut down the Strait of Ramoos. And that's the most important oil artery on Earth. Tomorrow, we'll find out what a Buffett list bulletin sells like from Berkshire Hathaway. Right. That's right. I'm betting the new CEO, Greg Abel, will opt for a much more low key style than his predecessor. We'll listen for words of wisdom, though. Maybe we'll get some. I think he's a business person trying to make as much money for you as he can. Look out. Norwegian Cruise reports on Monday and the activists at Elliott Management are after this company to start performing a little more like the standouts Royal Caribbean and Viking Holdings. Elliott's had some real wins of late. Honeywell, Southwest Air, Texas Instruments, J.M. Smucker. The latter, true shocker, given that it includes hostess brands, a junk food that was supposed to be obliterated by the GOP-1s. My suggestion for Norwegian crews, sell yourself to Disney, which is desperate for ships as there's a big ship shortage. It's an $11 billion company, this Norwegian. Disney could write a check like this and sell the smaller ships, refurbish only the largest ones, and make the cruise line a much bigger part of their business instantly. That matters. Disney's stock is stuck in cable TV purgatory. It could soar if it finds a way to build itself as more of a vacation paradise company. I know it would be radical. And look, it might take some time to retune the fleet to Disney's standards. But in my count, there are at least 10 Norwegian ships that could be made over as Disney ships right now. Disney has seven ships, soon to be eight. They're more upscale than Norwegian, but they can be fixed. I think it's a smart move as ordering a new cruise ship takes about five years. It's the time that's the problem, not just the money. Now, time is right for Disney if they do it. You know why? Because the new CEO, Josh DiMero, well, he's in the cruise ship business. So I say we buy Norwegian and put the emphasis on entertainment and not linear TV, which would be behind us. David Faber and I talk about linear TV all the time, and we know how terrible it's doing. Tuesday morning's back to retail. Target's got a new CEO, Mike Fidelke. And I imagine we're going to start with holding him accountable instantly, even though he just got the job. His predecessor, Brian Cornell, took matters into his own hands immediately when he became CEO and shed the money losing Canadian division, which was just crushing Target. It was a gutsy thing and people loved him immediately. Target's situation is a difficult one. It lacks the scale and reach of Amazon, Walmart or Costco. Mike's going to have to reinvent to stay relevant, I think, and he's got to do it quickly. Best Buy reports. Now, this is a tricky one. We keep hearing that they'll be punished for having too many devices that are going up in price because of the cost of memory. The cost of memory, like those little semiconductors, really seems to matter these days to even the PC business or the gaming business. After the close, CrowdStrike reports. Now, this is an incredibly skilled outfit that protects a huge number of clients from cyber criminals. Its CEO, George Kurtz, is a maniac for stopping cyberterrorism. And they play offense all the time. CrowdStrike's an expensive stock, though, and its price journeys multiple got compressed when Anthropic, the very aggressive business-to-business AI platform last week, invaded its turf with something that could help make AI agents safer. Look, in reality, CrowdStrike doesn't actually compete with Anthropic. They're like partners, for heaven's sake. So it shouldn't have been crushed like that. But the stock hasn't stepped back either, because these days, investors simply don't want to pay up for quality merchandise. I stand by CrowdStrike, which is why we own it for the Chapel Trust. One day soon, expertise will matter again and the stock will go higher. But maybe not in time for CrowdStrike's quarter. Wednesday morning, we're going to hear from a real tricky one, too. A lot of tricky ones. Brown Foreman. This is the maker of Jack Daniels. I know the liquor market's gotten tough because of pesky young people who don't like to drink much and instead like to work out. And plus there's this GLP-1 issue. But why is the stock up more than 10% year to date? Could there be something going on here? Something good? Something that's not good to its competitor, Diageo, which is doing really badly. After the closed Broadcom reports, a $1.5 trillion company makes semis in software. Really doesn't get enough attention given its size. Now, some of the chips are sold to Alphabet, which is a big buyer. That said, Broadcom needs to get new clients. Right now, it's caught in the software decline stemming from AI fears. I think the decline's wrong. You don't get the $1.5 trillion for doing nothing right. But you know what? This is one of those that's just too hard to own right now. And I know that. And I sensed that today when we had our monthly meeting. Now, we're going to listen to Okta, too, the company that protects identities. I'm sure that CEO Todd McKinnon will do a good job. I just don't know, once again, if it matters, because this market seems to have decided that anything Okta can do, a chatbot can do better. Next, I have a special place in my heart for Costco. I stop every time I see one when I'm on the road. They're almost always exciting and different. You need to go aisle by aisle to get the goods. I grab my own cart. My wife gets a different cart because we don't like the same stuff. We do end up at the register and try to merge, even though others don't like that because we get in front of them. I don't mean to really cut like that. She has the credit card, not me. I try to go on an empty stomach so I can eat the samples. Never go to Costco on a full stomach there. If you only take one thing away from the show, it's that. All that said, we want to see how many people re-up when their Costco cards expire. That's the key number now, the key metric. Late in the number hasn't progressed. In fact, it's going downhill. What is that about? I think it's largely younger people who fall out of love with Costco. They do e-commerce. They don't know what a bargain looks like if they hit them over the head anyway. They're silly. Marvell Tech reports on Thursday, and people are expecting big things because of its partnerships with several hyperscalers, most notably Amazon Web Services, which is selling out of its chips. The demand is so big here that it was mentioned by name in today's when everyone was talking about it. Marvell CEO Matt Murphy does a remarkable job. I think the stock's a buy going into the quarter. That's right. I'm actually recommending buying Marvell ahead of the earnings. Now, also on Thursday, very exciting. Caterpillar is part of a fireside chat at ConExpo. That's that annual construction trade show that you and I probably don't go to, but sounds like a real hoot. Their CEO, Joe Creed, a total straight shooter, might talk about how people are using Caterpillar generators to power data centers. All very exciting. I kick myself daily for not getting to that one. And I don't know if they'll let me out from my job here to go attend ConExpo. Maybe next year. Finally, on Friday, we get the Labor Department's non-farm payroll figures. will all keep waiting to see the impact of AI on employment. We haven't seen it yet, but you know why? I think it's because the expected firms aren't really laying off anyone. They're just hiring fewer people or none at all. Bottom line, this was a bruising week, capping off a bitter month. Let's hope March doesn't come in like a lion or a bear. But I can't imagine how we're going to see a steer in how we'll ever find this miserable place after this week. Hey, how about we go to Cordell in Ohio. Cordell. Thank you, Jim, for having me on today. I'm thrilled you're on the show. Thrilled. Okay. Thank you. I appreciate everything you do for the investors that invest with you and also that call into your show. And I just want to thank you for all your information. Oh, thank you, man. You know, we try so hard, and it's great when I hear it because it makes it all worthwhile. Thank you. How can I help you? Well, I'm calling in about a company that's currently up for the year, and I was just wondering, due to multi-expansion and pricing for products, and I know that I believe this company has a pretty solid management team, what other headwinds will face a company like Starbucks due to tariffs that came up recently? It's a great question. Okay, here's the other things that can really hurt Starbucks. And, you know, I'm a big believer in a big position by travel trust. What can hurt them is the inability to be able to close all the stores that aren't doing that well and then put the money towards the ones that are doing well. And that's what you have. That's how you have to get same store sales. And it's very difficult for Brian Nichol to say, OK, that store closed, this store open. We see a lot of it in New York, by the way. He has to get the Starbucks into the middle of the country. They're underrepresented in the middle and they're overrepresented in the coast. And I think he's going to take care of that. But it just takes time. I want to go to Ned in Ohio. Ned. Hello, Professor Kramer. It's been great to hear you back on the Mad Money program this week, sir. How are you? Thank you. I am fine. Thank you. How are you? I doing well sir By the way I want to wish you a belated happy birthday Oh thank you Remember your birthday because it one day ahead of mine Oh well there you go He Feb 11 Isn that terrific Yes, sir. Same as my best friend David Haas when I was growing up. All right, so let's work together. What do we have? Well, I want to ask you about Key Corp. I've held it for a while, and it's appreciated over time. I think you should continue to hold it. Just continue. You got that 4% yield. You got Chris Gorman doing this job. You've got a $20 stock down a dollar today. I actually would advise people if this stock fell to $19, I think you pull the trigger. I am a big backer of Key Corp. All right. February was a rough month. Let's hope March is a little better. Too much to ask? I'm out of time. Companies that build things are hot stocks right now. So is now the time to build a position in one that you work. It's going to knock your socks off. It's called Sterling Infrastructure. infrastructure. Don't miss my exclusive with the company's top brass. Then Flutter shares have been dropping out of the sky lately. What is that going on there? I'm taking a close look at the gaming industry and you probably don't want to hear anything about it, but we're still going to learn. And we held our investing club monthly meeting today and we had so many great questions from members. We just had to take a few more tonight so you get a feel about what the club's all about. So stay with Kramer. Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow at Jim Cramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Cramer. Hashtag Mad Mentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneyatcnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. I want to talk about one of the hottest stocks out there that you maybe never even heard of. It's called Sterling Infrastructure. Now, this is an engineering construction firm that pivoted from old fashioned highway work into high margin, mission critical infrastructure like data centers a few years ago. That's why this stock is up a staggering 1,800 percent over the past five years, including nearly 250 percent gain over the past 12 months and a 40 percent gain year to date. Now, two nights ago, Sterling reported what I thought was a strong quarter. Robust top and bottom line beat 51 percent revenue growth, a stunning 78 percent increase in the backlog. Even better, management has a higher than expected full year forecast. They're talking 25% revenue growth and 26% earnings growth. Yet the stock has actually gotten dinged a bit in response to these numbers. Opportunity? What's going on here? Let's check in with Joe Cotillo. He's the CEO of Sterling Infrastructure to find out. Mr. Cotillo, welcome to Mad Money. Thanks, Jim, and thanks for having me. All right, well, your company is an incredibly exciting company. It wasn't when you got there, but you have made it into probably what would be a fan favorite from everybody who listens to all these things about data centers without any of the overruns in a plum that they may have. Tell us about the transformation that you did with Sterling and how it's doing now. Yeah. So, you know, when I came in, our business was about 90 percent low bid, heavy highway work. Not a market that's really great. Super high risk, super low reward. If you're the low bidder, you win. It doesn't matter your value, your capabilities, or anything along those lines. And more so than that, we had a change in philosophy. The company was focused on revenue growth, assuming profit would fall through. And our focus shifted to margin growth and cash flow. And what that does is that drives you away from those markets that are very volatile, very low margins into areas of high growth, high value propositions, and where you can really put a service or offering to a customer that no one else can. But if you're going to do infrastructure work in your company your size, where do you get the people? Because the stuff that we're talking about, at least when I talk to a core weave, is really, really difficult. And very few people actually even know how to do it. Yeah, it's certainly a challenge we have as a country, right? We as a society have downplayed trades, and trades are absolutely critical to everything we do. We've been very fortunate. We have two parts of our infrastructure segment, the site development side, which is that heavy yellow iron. We do literally build cities underground that they can build facilities on top of. That labor, we have a very good track record of getting. We tend to pay more. Our guys work 60 hours a week. And we have the biggest and most powerful toys in the industry, right? So we can attract that talent. The electrical side of our business, which we recently added here last year, that's more challenging. The electricians aren't as readily available as machine operators. So we've got training programs. We have our own university in place. We're out recruiting from some of the trade schools, a multitude of things to keep up with the pace of demand that's coming at us. OK, so when we hear about a 30 billion dollar data center, what is the what kind of stuff do you do? You get the call. So if you step back at 30 billion dollar data centers, probably three, 400 acre site. And what people don't understand is these aren't data centers anymore. They're data campuses. OK, that's a really important point. Yeah, there's there's multiple buildings on these and there's multiple years of build out. So we will come in with a virgin piece of land. We'll put in all the underground infrastructure, take a mountain in a valley, make it flat in. And then they're ready to pour the pad and start the building. In addition to that, now we'll do all the outside electrical running into that building. So the duct banks, the power from the substation into the building, and then the building's ready to be built. Once the building's up, then we will start doing the electrical package inside the building at that point in time. So on that type of project, the exterior, the site development package on that would probably be $300 to $400 million. The electrical package on each one of those buildings is about $500 million. So if there's seven buildings on that, you can do the math, right? Well, okay, but you're the first person who's ever broken this down for me. See, I've always, when I hear these numbers, I just think, what the hell? Why is it so much money? But to find the people, the electricians, to put all that in, is not like doing a home. It's not like doing 20 homes. No. And the thing that people don't realize is when we're doing the electrical work on a data center, we're not doing all those buildings. We don't have each one of those buildings takes three to five hundred electricians just to do one building. So you multiply that by seven. There's usually multiple of us. And in the way our customers tend to do it is is is one company will get building one, a company will get building two, and then you'll get building three when that gets built. Right. So they're they have enough capacity and certainty that they'll get it built on. OK, you've also done you did some M&A that I think was critical to the stuff that we're talking about, correct? That's right. We bought a company in Dallas called CEC, and they do the electrical. They started in the semiconductor world and still have a nice piece of semiconductor. So for us, we had great presence in data center. We're pulling them strongly in the data centers. We can marry the outside electrical package with the site development package. We can actually take months of lead time out of the project for our customers. And at the end of the day, what we deliver is a project on time, every time, faster than anybody else. Because you've got that $30 billion project. An extra three months of time to build that is significant cost to the customer. Well, Joe, did you ever think that your stock would have this kind of run? I'm pretty optimistic. This might be a little higher than when I started in 2015. Well, it means that people talk about NVIDIA. I mean, I want to be in this one, right? We've outperformed NVIDIA over the time frame. You have. You have. Yeah. And this is higher than we thought. But it goes back, Jim, if you focus on a philosophy that says we will always move towards better margin and better cash flow, you end up in markets that you don't necessarily think about today. And I will tell you five years from now, seven years from now, we'll be in stuff that none of us even think about today. But that philosophy pulls you into that better work. And I always tell folks that, you know, you don't make a lot of money. You don't see a lot of high margin, high cash flow businesses and commodities. Right. They're in a specially high growth field. And how do we find those? Well, I got to tell you, I think you're amazing. I think your company's amazing. This is very exciting for me. I am in the midst of hearing about companies that are being reckless and throwing around money. If they're hiring Sterling, they're not throwing around money recklessly. You're going to give them a good deal. Yeah, we partner in and people will ask us about our margins and we have very good industry margins. I like to tell you we do it on price. It's not price. We're very competitive on price, and, you know, we still see people try to compete against us. Our value proposition is if I tell you that that data center is going to be ready for a slab on June 30th, you better have the concrete crews there probably a week earlier, too, because we're going to get it done every time on time. And we make our profitability or our increased margins through project management and technology. I think people would be shocked to see what we do with drones, what we've done with AI already within our business, on our job sites, what data and information we're pulling off our equipment constantly. It's fascinating. So it is almost a little technical. Well, I think you do a great job. It's the kind of thing I got to get my charitable trust in. You know, we got to get away from these companies that spend well beyond their means, take down all sorts of debt and hope. Here's doesn't sound like one of those companies. No, we're cash positive. We've got a great balance sheet and a lot of dry powder for more equity. I like this. This is Joseph Cotelli. He's the CEO of Sterling Infrastructure. Everybody's back at the booth. Coming up, the sports betting stocks have been getting hammered lately, but Kramer's not seeing a bounce back coming anytime soon. He'll explain using the case of Flutter Entertainment next. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice think about what your boss boss needs Leadership can look in many many different forms It really does come down to just trusting yourself Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. For months now, the online sports books have been crushed by worries about new competition from prediction markets like Calci and Polymarket. That's dragged down the two kings of online sports betting, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, the latter being the parent company of FanDuel. Now, Flutter had an opportunity to change that narrative when it reported last night, but they blew it. With the stock plunging another $17 or 14% today. I want to take a closer look at this because the decline here is frankly staggering. Flutter peaked at $313 change in early August, and now it's only at $166. It lost 66% of its value in barely more than six months. DraftKings has more than been cut in half over roughly the same period. Now, some of that's thanks to new competition from the prediction markets. Even Robben has gotten in the action on there, offering football prediction markets when the season started last year. That's exactly when Flutter and DraftKings saw their stocks peak. No coincidence. With each week of the past NFL season, the prediction markets seemed to report higher and higher volumes for their sports-related markets. Originally, the online sports folks didn't seem to worry about the competition. But as the football season went on, both DraftKings and FanDuel responded by getting the prediction markets themselves. They both made the move in November and both announced these initiatives right here on Mad Money. Because the prediction markets don't gamble themselves, they're merely making a market, they can avoid onerous state-level regulations or sports betting. The only regulators they need to worry about are at the federal level, and that's not a concern. Why? Because the Trump administration has already ruled in their favor. It does probably hurt that Don Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and a paid advisor to Calci. Now, even after all the carnage during football season, Flutter and DraftKings finally saw their stocks stabilize. in November and December. But once 2026 got rolling, oh boy, there it happened again. The stocks fell off a cliff. Some of that was because Calci and Polymarket kept putting up big football numbers. Two weeks ago, while we were off the air during the Winter Olympics, DraftKings reported, and while the quarter itself wasn't, it was fine, their four-year forecast was much weaker than expected. Which brings me last night. The Bulls here had one last hope, and that was flutter. They thought Flutter would say something, anything that changed the narrative when it reported last night. Unfortunately, Flutter did even worse than draft games. Their quarterly reports were disappointing, a meaningful top and bottom line miss, and their four-year guidance was downright putrid. Flutter expects $1775 to $1905 billion from Red Rude this year's company, when Wall Street was looking for something like $19.3 billion. Their forecast for earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization was over a half billion dollars weaker than expected. That's huge at the midpoint of the range. No wonder the stock tanked today. It should have. When you listen to the conference call commentary, there's some crazy stuff happening here. All last year, we heard that the online sports books were suffering because the clients won too much. You can understand why that's a problem for Flutter's FanDuel. But this time, we heard that the clients lost too much. And it turns out that's also a problem because of a new gambling term that, frankly, is new to me. It's called recycling. Basically, when bettors on FanDuel win, Flutter doesn't really mind because these people typically end up recycling their winnings. In other words, they just bet on something else until the money's gone. But this time, because the house won so much, there was far less recycling. FanDuel won too much, so people ended up walking away. I think it's much easier to walk away now that people have many more alternatives. That's what I think matters. FanDuel winning too frequently would not have been a problem for the company two years ago, but now it's a problem. Too many places to go. On top of that, Flutter said, quote, the second half of the NFL season saw less compelling content with fewer popular teams and favorite players making the playoffs, end quote, which hurt engagement. You know what? There. That makes sense to me. I know it makes sense to you. I mean, look, I'm not I'm not trying to slam the New England Patriots or slide the Seattle Seahawks. But this was a really boring playoff season and a very boring Super Bowl. For example, when the Chiefs not in the playoffs, well, you know, that means no Patrick Jones, no Travis Kelsey for the Swifties to watch. People toot out and didn't bet as much. Now, the issue that I don't quite understand is this. CEO Peter Jackson said, quote, our standard generosity playbook proved less effective in Q4 as our investment phasing did not sufficiently align with the problem of sports results during the period. Now, end quote. Now, listen, I mean, basically, it seems like the promotions that FanDuel offered either didn't resonate or simply didn't work because bettors lost so many games versus the house and tuned out anyway. But then Jackson went on to say, quote, as a result, we saw a higher churn within our customer base and a result in loss of market share, end quote. Now, immediately afterwards, Jackson was quick to add, quote, we also don't believe prediction markets are having a meaningful impact on our business, end quote. Clearly, denial is not just a river in Egypt. Who the heck does he think his company is losing market share to? if not the prediction market. That said, looking forward, I'm going to entertain the idea that people have gotten too negative on Flutter stock. The company's still growing. It's still profitable. And its shares are starting to look pretty darn cheap. It sells at 12.5 times this year's earnings estimates and less than 9 times next year's numbers. But maybe those numbers won't come through. Some of the problems there could be temporary. Betters could start winning again at a more normal clip and return to the platform and things tend to average out, right? Speaking as an NFL fan, I sure hope the playoffs are less boring next year. Hard to imagine that it could be worse. But at the end of the day, Flutter's latest quarter didn't do a thing to change the narrative that they're losing share to the prediction markets. While Flutter denied that the prediction markets are a serious problem, they confirmed that they're losing share to somebody. Of course, management said it wasn't because of the prediction markets. Instead, they pointed to a vague issue with that generosity playbook. But why should anyone believe them? So unfortunately, I don't see what breaks Flutter out of its current downtrend, other than the stock simply becoming too cheap to ignore. But that's a dangerous game, because if the company continues to lose market share, then those earnings estimates might prove to be too high. And when the actual numbers come out, the stock will turn out to be more expensive than it seems. It sure feels like that's going to be the case. Bottom line here, the stocks of the main online sportsbooks have been getting killed for months, as Wall Street bet that the online prediction market would eat them alive. So far, those fears have been mostly theoretical. But last night's quarter from Flutter was simply not strong enough to dispel those concerns. In fact, they confirmed that they're losing market share, so the stock got crushed again. Even if you want to go bottom fishing here, I say don't cast your line until these guys come to grips with the fact that the prediction markets are the real problem. As long as they're in denial about that, it's too dangerous to stick your neck out for this one. Let's go, Sam in Pennsylvania. Sam. Jim, I have quite a quandary for you. You know, I've been looking at Nike for a couple years now, and they're in this continual rebuilding phase of their earnings. I went through the earnings call. I was concerned that the CEO, Elliot Hill, now once did I see a mention of products quality, and as a consumer and an investor in the stock, that is what is going to drive demand. It's the quality of the product that's been the issue plaguing the company, and they're, like, running blind trying to solve these issues and spending. If they're going to spend money on anything, It should be spending money on the quality. That's what we want as consumers is good quality. Well, I would tell you. OK, so I would tell you, let's say, Sam, we brought Elliott Hill here. He would say that the number one thing we have to prove on is quality. He would totally agree with you. The problem is, I think that they got run down and you can't turn around a fashion play in two, three, four or maybe even five quarters. We have to wait a full maybe year, maybe two years to see what he does. That's how poorly the company was doing that he received. And he's doing his best. The Chapel Trust owns it. Right now, it's disappointing. But I'm betting that with more time, it will not be disappointing. That's all I can tell you. Let's go to Daniel Masters, please. Daniel. Hi, Mr. Kramer. Thank you very much for taking my call. I appreciate it. I am good to call, Daniel. Great job. Oh, thank you. How can I help? Okay, I've been following a stock called Roku. It seems you're on the way up right now. What do you think about that? Yeah, I think it is because it's got advertising and it's got target advertising. People love target advertising. This is the kind of stock that goes up even on bad days for the NASDAQ like today. I wish that my Chapel Trust owned it. I think it's a very smart thing to buy. I always looked at the price earnings multiple and thought it was too rich. But they are doing very, very well. All right, look, the online sports books have been getting crushed for months, and the quarter from clutter only confirmed investors' fears. I see you've got to stay away from the cohort until they come to grips with what's really going wrong. Then, much more mad money. After a great investor club meeting where we can take, you know, we can't take all the questions that we get, I'm opening the phone lines and taking more of your burning market questions. Then, $100 billion sounds like a lot of money to normal people, but to data center players, jump change. I'm breaking up into space and reviewing the method behind the money-raising madness. And, of course, all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of The Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer. What's going on with this market? The Dow just marked its 10th month in the green. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq just had its worst month since March of last year. You got questions I got to answer. Earlier today, we held our Investing Club monthly meeting for February, where Jeff Marks and I get together to walk club members through our decision-making process for the portfolio. You know what we do? We discuss our current holdings. Then we like to take questions from you, our club members. My favorite part of these meetings is taking questions from different people from all over the country, all over the world. It's really fun. But since we never have time to get to all of them, I'm giving you an inside look right now at what happens at the monthly meetings, while also doling out some much-needed market advice. I think if you join the club, you will get insights on how to manage your portfolio that you've never seen before. By the way, if you want to be a part of the next monthly meeting, join the club. Just scan the QR code behind me or go to cnbc.com slash investing club. I really want you at the next monthly meeting. Here's the kind of thing we do. First up, we have a question from Gregory in Indiana. Now, he asks, hi, Jim. Thanks for all you do. What percentage of my net worth should be allocated to gold? Thank you. This is a classic question. I have historically been what's known as a gold bug. I've liked gold for probably 40 years. So I think between 5% and 10%. It's an insurance idea that turned out to make a lot more money than most other stocks. So let's keep that percentage going. Next, we have a question from Chital in California who asks, discipline Trump's conviction. But in what circumstances does that change to own it, don't trade it? In other words what should one look at and determine whether a company is the next NVIDIA All right Now these are contradictory OK and it really difficult Own it Don trade it It directly contradicts discipline from conviction So you take a day like today when NVIDIA is down really badly and yesterday when NVIDIA is down really badly. Discipline should say that you should sell some NVIDIA because there's something wrong. But if you have conviction and you really believe in it, then you need to stand pat. And if it finally goes even lower, you need to buy some. You can make this kind of decision about one or two stocks. If you have a portfolio of things that you own, don't trade, you're going to lose a lot of money. We have picked NVIDIA and we have picked Apple. Those have been our two favorites and they've been right. Was it a painful day today? Yes, because we have an own it, don't trade it philosophy. But it has made us money in those two. Anything else we're willing to sacrifice. Next, we have William who asks, how do you know when to cut your losses or add to a stock? Is there a timeline to give that stock to come back to? It's a very subjective thing. I like to think of things like a pyramid. OK, so you start and let's say things are starting to come down. You buy some here, then you buy a lot more here. And then when it gets to here, you go big. It never it typically doesn't go to there if you are in a quality stock. I don't want people to buy a lot at one level. I do want people to do what we call in today's meeting schnitzel. When a stock is a parabolic, then you take some off here because it's probably most likely going to go down and then you can buy some back. That's about all the trading I ever advocate. Now, Billy in Indiana asked, how do you recommend, what do you do with Marvell technology? I started positioning him a while back and have been nibbling more lately as the price has fallen. To me, it's a solid company that's a key player in the AI market now and beyond. Hold, keep buying more. Thanks for all you do for your club members. OK, listen up, Billy. Marvell reports next week. Matt Murphy is what I call a money good player. He is going to be able to describe a deal that I think, if they let him talk about it, that is with Amazon that is a phenomenal deal. They are making the chips for a whole bunch of these hyperscalers. And I think that they're going to be Amazon sold out of its most recent chip. Michael, Matt's going to do a big number. Hold on to it. If it drops next Monday or Tuesday, buy more Marvell. I think it's a great situation right here. All right. Next up, we have a question from Drew. He says, oh, boy, this is a hot one. Lumentum. LITE has been going up a lot in the last six months. What do you think about it? Should I sell a bit or hold? All right, so Lumentum, Jeff Marks is my colleague. He and I looked at this stock, and also Ben Stotto is a research director, and the stock's like this, okay? So we think that if we come in, we are going to get annihilated. So we did a hard pass on it, and I'm going to ask you to do a hard pass. A stock like Lumentum that is up straight line, it's just too dangerous for me. I would be a seller, not a buyer. Thanks again to all our club members. You see what it's about. It's some of it's seat of the pants, but most of it is discipline, and Mad Bunny's back after the break. Coming up, you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast-fire lightning round next. It is time for the lightning round. Chris, my friend, my brother, I'm going to talk to you about my buy. Still, still, still, still. I know the calls. Had to tell my staff first to grab your fly. You hear it, sound? And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready, Steve? Guys, I'm going to write my place over the episode. Bruce in Arizona. Bruce. Hey, Jim. You've helped so many people. Give yourself a pat on the back. I'm from Upper Moraine originally, now in Cowboy Town of Presby, Arizona. Back in November 2008, you said applied materials were so cheap, you could sell the parts for more. I bought 1,000 shares at $8.94. I'm up over 4,000%. Where's it headed? All right. Now, I will tell you that both Jeff Barks and I were talking about adding applied materials to the bullpen. It got away from us. I actually think, and I know this is a little radical because I like Gary Dickinson so much, I would take a little bit off. It's a parabolic chart. And then come back to it if you want to. But not more than that because I got to tell you, that's a great, great position you did. Congratulations. Let's go to Lee in New York. Lee. Hey, Jim. How are you? I am good. How are you? I'm doing better and better every day in every way. Wow, I like that. I wanted to add a rare earth minerals company to my portfolio. I'm a little worried because of the tariffs in the Supreme Court cutting them down. But I had a smaller company, which the government also has an equity share. USAR is the stock I was thinking. US. Okay, so I'm going to tell you, this is a totally speculative situation. Now, in How to Make Fun to Any Market, I say you can buy one of these. Okay, let that be your one. Do not betray me and buy two of them. That'll be too dangerous. Let's go to Ted in California. Ted. Boo-yah, Dr. Kramer. Greetings from the North Bay of Napa. Wow. Long time for a time and a newer member. Great meeting this morning. Shout out to your camera. Thank you very much. You're doing a great job. Thank you. Tried to make it as freewheeling to show the way Jeff and I really interact. What's up? So I know you like DuPont for the trust, and it's doing pretty well. Yes, it's been pretty good. What are your thoughts on their merger, buddy, from about five years ago, who hit their 52-week high last week? Talking about international flavors and fragrances. We were going to do a piece in IFF because we think that the turnabout is real. And then let me tell you, sir, we decided to hold off because it went so high. It's up 22% for the year. But you're right. IFF is back. After being in the wilderness for almost a decade, IFF is back. I want to go to Peter in Pennsylvania. Peter. Jim, as a longtime viewer and a happy club member, what do you think of Transocean RIG? All right. Look, if it were a $60 stock instead of $6, no one would touch it. The fact is that it can go higher, but I do know it's got a lot of debt. It's not my favorite. My favorite is Halliburton, and my second favorite is SLB. Like, quality. Let's go to Betsy in California. Betsy. Well, hey, Jim. This is Betsy. I wanted to have something on the high end to go with my TJ Maxx, which, by the way, I love and I shop at HomeGoods all the time. So what I did was the beginning of the school year, I went to eight high-income high schools. And I talked to all the teenage girls that I could. I actually talked to 75 girls. And do you know what they all wanted? They all wanted a coach handbag. Yes, and that is right. And you should own the stock. That's your research. Dovetails exactly with what I hear from Wall Street and from the company. You want to buy, buy, buy some, buy half of it, and then if it falls, buy some more. That's the ticket. And thank you for that insight. That's worth millions for our people. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round. The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Maybe it's time to start thinking differently about increments. Right now, we tend to blanch when we hear that a company is spending worth of $100 billion on something. We get nervous when a company raises a huge amount of money for something amorphous, like the $110 billion that OpenAI raised today, valuing the company at $730 billion. We can't get our heads around the $100 billion OpenAI just committed to buying Amazon chips. We cringe when Corlew talks about the need to lose billions to make back that money later, and then we send the stock down over 80%. But let me give you a novel idea. When you hear about these sums, I think you're going to have to do the unthinkable. I think you need to think of $100 billion as, well, not a lot of money. Right now, there are 12 companies that have announced spending plans worth of $100 billion, including well-known names like Apple, Taiwan, Semi SoftBank, and OpenAI. They initially rolled out these plans with a flourish. Great fanfare, not anymore, though. Instead, $100 billion just seems to be the entry point if you want to be able to build a thorough set of data centers. Let's start with the understanding that many of these $100 billion amounts, though, might never be spent. These are pretty fluid these days. People don't know what's only going to cost. Second, the projects that many of these companies are embarking on are not simple. They involve a lot of sightings. These places are gigantic with many buildings. You need a lot of electricity coming in at a stable pace through thick and thin in a firm geographical space. Third, the machines that can power these facilities are very expensive. The cost of building them at scale can't really be estimated. So they get lumped into the $100 billion, too. Most importantly, though, this is 2026, not 2006 or 1996. We've had serious inflation. $100 billion, unfortunately, ain't what it used to be. At the same time, we no longer have a ready pool of skilled blue-collar builders or electricians. The materials now are insanely expensive. Data centers run hot, so they need to be cooled. And let's not forget, if you buy chips from NVIDIA, well, those chips don't come cheap. Now, when you take these hyperscalers with clean balance sheets and you load them up with debt, they become far less attractive to investors. But when I talk to the executives who are doing the buying and the building, they're expecting a much quicker return than most of us would imagine. They would not be surprised if they lay out $20 billion for data center and start generating gains in two years time from completion. Maybe, maybe even less. More important, these guys aren't, they really are certain that if they don't spend the money, they're going to end up being eaten alive by the competition. At best, they'll end up being like Microsoft's Bing, the hopelessly second rate search engine that Windows still tries to drag you into if you're not looking at it. You have to admire their persistence. You can't afford to be left behind, though, and you'd still be a major company in this industry. And that thought requires you to get your head around the idea that spending $100 billion is kind of like spending $15 to $20 billion in a previous decade. Think of it like this. When you decide to construct the biggest buildings in the world and stock them with the most expensive equipment in the world, all attached to a nuclear power plant, which is the most expensive way to generate electricity in terms of upfront payments, you better believe it's going to cost you a fortune. It's hard to avoid paying $100 billion. So from here on, let's do this. Let's accept that as the price of admission is $100 billion and just hope we don't have to ignore $200 billion anytime soon. I like to say, as always, one more can sell my pounds. If I just figure out your money, I'm Jim Cramer. I'll see you Monday. any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money Disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com forward slash Mad Money Disclaimer. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Borsten hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.