Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 2441: Re-signed and Resigned

109 min
Feb 18, 20262 months ago
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Summary

This episode covers baseball transactions and prospect rankings, including the resignation of MLB Players Association head Tony Clark amid an internal investigation, the Fangraphs top 100 prospect list with Connor Griffin as the consensus #1 pick, and various player signings and injuries across MLB teams.

Insights
  • Connor Griffin's meteoric rise from unranked prospect to unanimous #1 overall in one year mirrors only Mike Trout's trajectory, driven by elite defensive development at shortstop alongside offensive tools
  • Tony Clark's resignation on the eve of CBA negotiations creates leadership instability for players, though interim leadership under Bruce Meyer may actually strengthen negotiating position with experienced labor lawyer
  • The 2025 prospect list contains 40% pitchers in top 10 (vs. historical lows), reflecting either cyclical variance or genuine shift in team development priorities toward pitching depth
  • Zach Gallen's contract negotiation failure—signing for same guarantee as qualifying offer but with deferrals—demonstrates market miscalculation and agent Scott Boros' reduced leverage in current landscape
  • Players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado appear coordinated in publicly praising Dodgers spending, suggesting union messaging strategy to counter ownership's competitive balance salary cap arguments
Trends
Prospect evaluation increasingly values mature plate discipline and contact rates over raw tools, with teams prioritizing safer floors over ceiling varianceMLB team spending patterns show bifurcation: Dodgers/Padres aggressive spending vs. cost-cutting teams, creating competitive imbalance that union must address in CBAPitching prospect depth expanding relative to position players, possibly due to injury risk awareness and reduced innings pitched in modern baseballYoung shortstops dominating prospect lists (7 in top 15) as teams value athleticism and defensive upside in premium positionsFederal investigations into union leadership (MLBPA, NFLPA) creating governance instability during critical labor negotiation periodsPosition player development accelerating with elimination of minor league levels, pushing teenagers to advanced competition earlierDeferred money becoming standard in mid-tier free agent contracts, reducing present-day value for players accepting shorter-term dealsAlternative medicine and player wellness becoming negotiation points, with Harper's circulation treatments and recovery methods influencing performance narratives
Topics
MLB Players Association Leadership TransitionConnor Griffin Prospect EvaluationFree Agent Contract NegotiationsProspect Development TimelinesCompetitive Balance and Payroll DisparityCBA Negotiation StrategyPitching Prospect Depth AnalysisShortstop Prospect RankingsFederal Investigation into Union MisconductDeferred Money in Baseball ContractsPlayer Development AccelerationDodgers Spending StrategyEffectively Wild Free Agent Draft CompetitionChallenge System ImplementationSign-Stealing Prevention Measures
Companies
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brendan Golowski worked as pro scout for Pirates; Connor Griffin drafted and developed by organization
Detroit Tigers
Kevin McGonigal and Max Clark ranked highly; John Schneider's draft strategy credited with franchise trajectory reset
San Diego Padres
Acquired Herman Marquez, Griffin Canning, Nick Castellanos, Walker Buehler; A.J. Preller extended as GM
Arizona Diamondbacks
Re-signed Zach Gallen to $22.025M deal with deferrals; signed Joe Ross as minor league free agent
Los Angeles Dodgers
Spending strategy praised by Harper and Machado; Max Muncy signed extension; subject of competitive balance debate
Philadelphia Phillies
Released Nick Castellanos; Dave Dombrowski's comments about Bryce Harper created public tension
Milwaukee Brewers
Signed Luis Renjifo; Jesus Sanchez and Leo DeVries ranked as top prospects; Brandon Sproat acquired
Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout returning to center field; Tyler Bremner prospect; new pitching director Jarrett Hughes
Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez suffered torn UCL requiring season-ending surgery post-preview
Tampa Bay Rays
Brody Hopkins acquired via Randy Arozarena trade; prospect development strategy highlighted
Seattle Mariners
Ryan Sloan ranked as top pitching prospect; strong recent draft performance noted
Atlanta Braves
Fast-track prospect development system noted for getting top prospects to majors quickly
New York Mets
Brandon Sproat traded to Brewers; Carson Benji ranked as top prospect
Baltimore Orioles
Ryan Walshmit prospect; Andy Kosko member of MLBPA executive subcommittee
Fangraphs
Published 2025 top 100/110 prospect list; hosts Effectively Wild podcast
People
Tony Clark
MLBPA executive director resigned after internal investigation revealed inappropriate relationship with sister-in-law
Bruce Meyer
MLBPA lead negotiator and likely interim director following Clark's resignation; experienced labor lawyer
Connor Griffin
Consensus #1 overall prospect; 19-year-old shortstop for Pittsburgh Pirates with elite defensive development
Zach Gallen
Pitcher re-signed by Diamondbacks for $22.025M with deferrals; subject of Effectively Wild contract draft
Nick Castellanos
Released by Phillies, signed by Padres for league minimum after failed trade attempts
Bryce Harper
Phillies outfielder publicly criticized Dave Dombrowski's comments; praised Dodgers spending strategy
Manny Machado
Padres infielder praised Dodgers spending; appears coordinated with Harper on union messaging
Dave Dombrowski
Phillies president made candid comments about Harper's performance creating public tension
A.J. Preller
Padres GM extended contract; orchestrated multiple acquisitions including Castellanos and Buehler
Mike Trout
Angels center fielder returning to position; 120 WRC+ hitter with ongoing injury management concerns
Scott Boras
Agent for Zach Gallen; contract negotiation criticized as market miscalculation
Eric Longenhagen
Fangraphs prospect analyst; co-authored 2025 top 100 prospect list with detailed evaluations
Brendan Golowski
Fangraphs prospect analyst and former Pirates pro scout; co-authored 2025 top 100 prospect list
Chris Bassett
Orioles pitcher and MLBPA executive subcommittee member; addressed Clark resignation and leadership transition
Max Muncy
Dodgers infielder signed one-year extension for $10M guaranteed; example of player discount
Pablo Lopez
Twins pitcher suffered torn UCL requiring season-ending surgery
Emmanuel Clase
Pitcher at center of federal investigation for allegedly throwing pitches to influence betting outcomes
Luis Ortiz
Pitcher attempting to sever case from Emmanuel Clase; allegedly involved in pitch-throwing scheme
Ron Manfred
MLB Commissioner questioned about delayed detection of pitch-throwing scheme
Kevin McGonigal
Tigers prospect ranked #5 overall with highest hit tool on list; 2026 ETA to majors
Quotes
"We want to go with an interim leader for now and just sort of project some stability heading into bargaining"
Player leadership (paraphrased)Tony Clark resignation discussion
"I feel we have made mistakes in the past by making rush decisions. The executive subcommittee and all the reps agreed we want to get this right."
Chris BassettMLBPA leadership transition
"This is the best player I've ever scouted at this level"
Pirates scout (30-year veteran)Connor Griffin evaluation, May 2024
"I don't get motivated by that kind of stuff. For me, it was wild. The whole situation happening, the big thing for me was when we first met with this organization, it was, hey, we're always going to keep things in-house"
Bryce HarperResponse to Dombrowski comments
"I f***ing love it. I love it. I mean, honestly, I think every team should be doing it. The Dodgers have figured out a way to do it."
Manny MachadoDodgers spending praise
Full Transcript
It's effectively wild and it's wildly effective at putting baseball in the perfect perspective. Impressive, smart, and impeccably styled. It's the wildly effective, effectively wild. It's been right along shangles, that event war. You might hear something you never heard before. Hello and welcome to episode 2441 of Effectively Wild, a baseball podcast from Fangraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. I am Ben Lindberg of The Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fangraphs. Hello, Meg. Hello. We are taking a brief break, pressing pause on our season preview series, which will resume later this week. But today we're bringing you some prospect talk from Fangraphs prospect analysts Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Golowski, who published their top 100 prospect lists this week, and we will be discussing it. But first, just a bit of news to discuss. A few things have happened in baseball, one of which involves Tony Clark, who, as we speak, I suppose, technically, is still the head of the MLBPA, but will not be for long, may not be by the time you're hearing this. And this is such a developing situation and meetings are taking place about this right now and reports are trickling out that maybe I'll just leave that for the end of the intro just in case anything substantive comes out before we get to that. But I think more will certainly come out in the days and weeks ahead. But this is big news, obviously, on the eve of bargaining for the head of the MLBPA to be residing. So we will discuss some of the implications of that. Just a quick little roundup of some transactions and player news and signings and such. As is always the case, we have to start the season preview series early in order to finish by an early opening day, which means that teams continue to do stuff after we talk about them. So we previewed the Padres. We previewed the Diamondbacks. They've been busy. The Padres, since we talked about them last week, went and got Herman Marquez and Griffin Canning. And Nick Castellanos is now a San Diego Padre. Walker Buehler. Yeah. Oh, I missed that. That just happened. Minor league deal signed yesterday. Yeah. Walker Buehler. And they did indeed sign A.J. Preller to an extension of, I believe, undisclosed length. So we talked about how that seemed to be in the offing. Teams don't love to go into seasons with Pobos being lame ducks. And so they have signed Preller to some sort of extension. And so he's the one making these moves. And teams just waited out the Phillies with Castellanos. The Phillies seemingly were hoping, trying to trade him somewhere. They were hanging on to him, even though it was just a fait accompli that he would be going somewhere. But they ultimately just made them cut him loose. And now the Padres have picked him up for league minimum. I don't know exactly how and where he fits on the Padres, but he's now on that team. And the change of scenery very much seemed to be in order there. But the Phillies couldn't find a taker where, you know, some team would pay some portion of the remaining money or give them a prospect or something. Nah, I guess teams kind of had the Phillies where they wanted them on Castellanos. So they knew that his days were numbered. Now he's on the Padres. and also the Diamondbacks after we discussed them last week. Well, not only did they sign my number one minor league free agent draftee, Joe Ross, but slightly bigger news, they did indeed bring back Zach Gallin, a possibility that we discussed on our preview. We talked about how they needed a starter. Well, now they got one, and it's the same as the guy they had before. Lots of just bringing back players that they had in last year's rotation. But obviously, this has implications, not just for the Diamondbacks, the NL Wests, but for the effectively wild free agent contracts over underdraft decided in your favor. Stunning, buzzer-beating fashion. Just a thrilling conclusion. And as we discussed recently, he had to sign for $30 million or less. And indeed, he did. He signed for the qualifying offer amounts. Now, unfortunately for Galland, he, I suppose, did himself a disservice by not taking the qualifying offer in retrospect because he got the same guarantee, 22.025 million. But most of it is deferred now. And so he's actually getting less money in present day value than he would have if he had just accepted the qualifying offer and not been twisting in the wind all winter. So I guess he misjudged the market or the interest in him coming off a down season or seasons and with the draft pick compensation attached. So that didn't work out well for him or for Scott Boris, I suppose, his agent. We can re-litigate the whole is Boris washed conversation. No, he's not. But evidently there are some misfires. And, you know, if he stays true to history, then maybe Galen will have a bounce back year and he'll hit the market again next winter and he'll do great for himself. Unencumbered. Yeah, but didn't do so great this winter. However, this does work out in your favor, just an improbable come from behind victory. I guess we both came from behind, but you came from behind last and you got the last laugh here. And we're separated by a mere eight million bucks. This is, I believe, the smallest margin in effectively wild free agent contracts over under draft history. So it was two hundred sixty five million for you and two hundred fifty seven million for me. And that eight million makes all the difference. Congrats to you and to all of us, because this was quite an entertaining competition. Yeah. And once again, I'd like to say that I feel bad that this trivial victory, this, you know, bit of bragging rights and really nothing else comes at the expense of players making less than they were forecast for. Right. You know, we want we want guys to make their money. We're not opposed to anyone getting the bag. But I will say you were so obnoxious about your minor league free agent draft win last year that I am taking extra pleasure in this. And I know it was a squeaker. I know it was close, which I think is more a testament to how well dialed in these estimates are, have been, and especially are lately. Right. There isn't quite as much big margin to be had, although, you know, we've each enjoyed a couple of deals that have really moved the needle for us. But, you know, I'd like to thank my family and the intense prep that I did for the draft. And I guess also these markets being misjudged in some cases. But I'd like it if I'd like it if we were winning on the overs more often than on the unders. And, you know, as we go into a contentious labor year, I worry about that. Although the last time guys were about to get locked out, teams doled out just a boatload of money right at the last minute. So who knows what we'll see come December. But, yeah, what a wild ride. What a roller coaster it was. I'm excited to get to watch Gallen in the desert again. Last year didn't go well for him, but when, you know, he's right. Like, he's really fun. He's a really fun pitcher to watch. He's got the glasses, you know. We love a guy in specs out there on the mound. So I hope that this is a nice bounce back year for Zach Gallen and that he is able to secure the contract that he wants. And I think at various points in his career has very obviously deserved. But in the meantime, I'm glad for you to get taken down a peg. Yes. Yes. There we go. You earned it. And it was, in fact, a squeaker, unlike the minor league free agent draft, which I won a walk. OK. And it was really just, you know, this was more entertaining, I think, because it came down to the wire. We have to be done faster than usual in this episode. I have so much editing to do, and you're going to grandstand? You're going to Adrian Brody this? No, you're done. In the past. The other draft was kind of just like waiting to see how much I would win by. Okay. In this case. Anyway, what else you got for me? Well, I'm going to hang up and go work if you're going to do this. I'm happy to see, though, that we both still got it because when we did this over under draft, we were thinking, well, maybe there's no point anymore because the predictions are so well calibrated that maybe there's no edge here. And maybe there's no point in continuing to do it. But we ended up being a combined 500 million plus bucks in the right direction, I guess. Given our forecast, which, you know, was largely because of this trend towards players and teams meeting on these trampoline contracts, these short term high AAV deals, as opposed to maximizing the year. So if this becomes the norm and MLB Trade Rumors starts predicting those, well, I guess we'll continue to evaluate whether there's any point in doing this. But I'm glad we did it this year because it led to a quite entertaining outcome. I was hoping that he'd sign for exactly $30 million so that you would win by the .025. But it was quite close as it is. Okay. So that was exciting. And also more injury news has continued to pile up. So we did do a Twins preview, and since then, Pablo Lopez, it has come out, now has a torn UCL and is likely facing season-ending surgery. So not that the Twins preview wasn't dismaying enough, but if we were to do it again today, it might be even more dismaying. So that's not great. Also coming out of Philly's camp, not just Nick Castano's departing, but Bryce Harper continuing to re-air his displeasure about Dave Dombrowski's comments, which were just honest, I guess, and fairly accurate, his evaluation of Bryce Harper's season and how it was good, but less than elite, not as great as he's been before. And I don't know whether Dombrowski was just caught in a moment of candor and was just saying what he thought, which is not usually what team executives do, or whether he was hoping to motivate Harper, light a fire under him somehow. But obviously, Harper was upset about that at the time and about the trade rumors that Dombrowski's comments spawned, which he wasn't actually suggesting they would trade him. But of course, sports talkers took that and ran with it. And so Harper did not take kindly to that. and asked about it again at Philly's camp. He, in somewhat more measured terms, but still smarting from that clearly, just said, I don't get motivated by that kind of stuff. For me, it was wild. The whole situation happening, the big thing for me was when we first met with this organization, it was, hey, we're always going to keep things in-house and we expect you to do the same thing. So when that didn't happen, it kind of took me for a run a little bit. Obviously, I didn't have the year I wanted. Obviously, I didn't have the postseason I wanted. My numbers weren't where they needed to be. I know that. and I don't need to be motivated to be great in my career or anything else. That's just not a motivating factor for me. For Dave to come out and say those things, it's kind of wild and maybe ineffectively wild if Harper is to be believed, though wouldn't be shocked if he just has a Bryce Harper revenge year. I think he was wearing a not elite shirt. I mean, clearly this touched a nerve. And I don't know whether this had anything to do with the alternative treatments that he has pursued and that we have discussed. To no end this offseason. Wait, what would, what about his, what alternative treatments would he have pursued that would make him grouchy? Well, yeah, I don't know whether the circulation of the blood makes him grouchy or whether they're just a manifestation of his motivation or his own lack of contentment with how he plays. I see. Yeah. So I wouldn't be surprised if even though he says he's not motivated by this, that maybe he actually is. I mean, sorry, my not elite T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions. Like, he's clearly somewhat motivated by this. Yes, I think so. He's clearly somewhat motivated by it, you know. Yeah. And look, fine, you know. sticking it to your boss that that's a motivation is as old as time sure tale as old as time but Bryce Bryce yeah we can you can you can be honest about what's going on you can be like that really pissed me off I'm I'm proven wrong I'm proven wrong you know yeah and I don't know whether that will make him play better or not because presumably he's he's trying his best at all times and so Maybe if he's just consumed by rage and he's just like seeing Dave Dombrowski's face superimposed on every pitcher's body he faces this season. Like, I don't know whether whether that'll help or hinder his efforts. But George Plumpton's so weird. Yeah, there is a resemblance there. Still got great hair after all these years. But you know what? So does Bryce anyway. Yeah. So we'll see how that all plays out. But clearly still smarting a little bit. It's still a little bad blood, so to speak. Anyway, I also noticed that Harper and Machado both addressed the Dodgers and their spending. OK. In a way that almost made it seem to me as if there were marching orders. There were talking points perhaps provided by the union. I don't know who at the union. But there are still a lot of other people who work there. Yeah. Yes, that's true. But since we were talking about how various columnists are framing payroll pieces and salary cap pieces around the Dodgers and Kyle Tucker, and there's been so much just unrest among fans and public sentiment about the Dodgers. And Harper said, I love what the Dodgers do. Obviously, they pay the money. They spend the money. I mean, they're a great team. They understand how to run it. They run their team like a business and they run it the right way. They understand where they need to put their money into. You might almost think that he's trying to work his way onto the Dodgers or something, that he's that sick of Dave Debrowski. But he didn't reportedly pass up an offer from the Dodgers when he was a free agent. But I don't think it's that because Manny Machado on the Padres was saying the same thing. He said, and I'm going to quote Machado here with some profanity, so be warned, I f***ing love it. I love it. I mean, honestly, I think every team should be doing it. The Dodgers have figured out a way to do it. it's great for the game. Every team has the ability to do it. So I hope all 30 teams could learn from that and cue the chorus of people saying not all teams could do exactly what the Dodgers do. It's absolutely true. They don't have the same resources. But if he's just suggesting that many of them could spend more than they have been spending, then I'm largely with him on that. And that's coming from Manny Machado, division rival of the Dodgers. And there's been plenty of bad blood between those two teams. So that almost makes it sound to me like, you know, how when we had Vinny and Brent Rooker on the pod, and they were talking about the players kind of reclaiming the narrative and making a proactive case as opposed to just being on their back foot that and signaling that, hey, a lockout, that's owner driven, that's not player driven, which not everyone would know. I wonder whether this is something that the players have decided to present some sort of united front here to have some influential veterans and stars and high earners say, hey, this is actually not a reason to impose a salary cap. We like this. We approve of this. We want teams to be aggressive. I don't know. It was conspicuous. But the fact that they were both saying similar things at roughly the same time stood out to me. Do we know if they were asked or if they volunteered this proactively? Yeah, that's a good question. Just, hey, anyone wondering what I think about the Dodgers? This memo with talking points suggests that I should bring up the – no, I don't know. I would imagine that it is somewhat calculated that there have been maybe not talking points necessarily, but sort of guidance given just as well, right? Like you're going into a period where you understand there needs to be a shaping of the public narrative around this stuff, that there is value in players presenting a united front, having it come from, you know, a direct division rival who, as you noted, no love lost for the Dodgers, right? And, you know, a guy playing for a team that very reasonably might expect to have to bypass the Dodgers in order to make it to the World Series, that they would say like, hey, why don't we all get on the same page here? It's I think the way I'm not saying you're suggesting this is like a bad or anything, but I always find it curious when people are like, well, they got talking points. Well, it's like, well, yeah, yeah, they should. They should. You need to you need to present your message on this stuff publicly. And this isn't this guy, these guys, this job, right? Like having a position and sort of a well calibrated response on labor questions isn't necessarily Bryce Harper's job. Bryce Harper's job is to drink weird milk and hopefully prove his boss wrong. Right. Manny Machado's job is to make the Dodgers life difficult, not to say they're cool. I think having messaging around this stuff is good. I do think that one of the challenges that the players are going to face over the next year is finding a way to articulate this stuff, not in terms of team capacity, but in terms of sort of directly countering some of the, I think, incorrect, but at this point, pervasive talking points that the league has put forth. that this is a question of competitive balance, right? This is about competitive balance. Because on some level, hearing a player say, yeah, we love it when a team spends on players, well, that's an unsurprising conclusion for them to draw, right? Because they're players. Of course they want players to get paid. These guys happen to have already gotten paid, so I suppose they could do a, well, I got mine, and now I'd love a salary cap so that this team I don't like can't play well. But that piece of it's not surprising to me. I do think they need to think about, like, how do we put this in terms that are compelling to fans? Because I do think that a lot of fans kind of buy the argument that the league is making. I think that argument is incorrect. And I think it's also insincere. But I think that, you know, that that particular argument needs to be met head on. But you can only answer the question you were asked, you know, within sort of reasonable bounds. So it's better for them to come out and say, no, I think what they're doing is great, even though I have to deal with the Dodgers 13 times a year, however many games it is, for division rivals. And they're the main stumbling block for us getting to the World Series, but I'd rather they do this than not. Harper getting on the Dodgers would be weird. Like, where would he even play? They have a first baseman. Could he be a shortstop? They have one of those. Could he be the DH? Wait, no. They do have a pretty good DH. Is blood guy a position? He could be their blood guy. That makes it sound like he's doing something very nefarious. Yeah. Yeah. I'm their blood guy. You know, that might be one way to take down the Dodgers. Just appoint Bryce Harper as their director of alternative medicine. Yeah. Just have him be a trainer, team doctor. Hey, I'm here to deal with your blood. He's like a shady weed dealer. You have to like, before you get the blood from him, you have to let him like play video games for half an hour. Yeah, I'm imagining Bryce Harper just trying to go to his happy place at the plate. And it's like Happy Gilmore when Happy tries to go to his happy place. And Julie Bowen is lying there with pitchers of beer in her negligee. And then Shira McGavin crashes his happy place and starts making out with her, except it's Dave Dombrowski. He should change his walkout music to Blood Bank by Bon Iver just to troll the rest of us. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And one thing that I know annoys people about the Dodgers is it's not just when they outspend everyone, but when they they don't even have to because they get a discount on a guy. And that's sort of what happened with Max Muncy, because it wasn't huge news, but he signed a one year extension and it's a guaranteed 10 million. And then there's he gets seven million next year and he has a club option worth 10 million for 2028. And I know that he's 35 and he's had his ups and downs, but he's still a pretty good productive player. And he just like clearly is not interested in testing the market. Like he just wants to be a Dodger. He's been a Dodger. The Dodgers sort of salvaged him and he's he's not going for market rate. So that is a complication because the Dodgers have been so good for so long. Not only can they outspend everyone, but also sometimes people just want to play there. And that's kind of tougher to counteract, at least without getting in the way of their being able to spend and attract good players and win every year. But it would take some time to dismantle the Dodgers reputation. I do think that this stuff washes over fans differently when it's like the guy who's been there. Yeah. Muncie, I mean, obviously, he didn't start his career with the Dodgers famously, but he's a Dodger. Yeah, he's a Dodgers find. He's a Dodgers find. They developed him, yeah. And I think that he is so closely associated with that franchise. He's been there for a decade now, right? Like, he's going into his 11th season with them. So I do think that these tend to not bother people quite as much. But you're not wrong. He's also a specs guy, you know? A specs guy. And a Teen Wolf guy. He looks like Teen Wolf. He looks like he's pre-full transition to Teen Wolf. He does. It's not even a hair thing. It's like he has prominent canines. You know? Yeah. Gosh, the Dodgers signed him. Well, April. I'm letting that fly. Yeah, sure. Teen Wolf, yeah. Whatever you said. Yeah. He does. He looks like Teen Wolf. He looks like a mid-transition to Teen Wolf. Teen Wolf. I guess it's. You're never going to stop thinking about it now. April 2017 is when they signed him. So nine years almost. But, yeah, for the Dodgers, that's a long time. They're not very homegrown these days. Also, we got just a couple of clarifications and details about the challenge system. Nothing really revealing because we kind of had some sense of how it would work. But one slight downer because we had sort of celebrated that the implementation of ABS in any form, the challenge system, might mean the end of K-Zone. Yeah. And sounds like that won't actually be the case. No. Yeah, it might lead to a change, but here's what the MLB.com explainer says. Will the broadcast still feature the strike zone box? It remains up to the individual broadcasters to determine whether and how to present the zone. The only change is that MLB is now requesting broadcasters no longer differentiate the circle in the box, depending on whether the pitch is a ball or a strike. In other words, some broadcasts would show a filled in circle on the zone if the pitch was a strike and a hollow circle. If it was a ball, MLB is asking its broadcast partners to do one or the other, but not both. So I guess, A, the broadcasts are not bound to do anything differently if they don't want to. Be ungovernable. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I guess MLB is itself overseeing a lot of baseball broadcasts now. Yeah, so they get their way a lot. They can kind of do their own thing, maybe there. But this is such a subtle change. It wasn't until fairly recently that I even noticed the filled-in circle versus hollow circle thing. I mean, I think Sam may have mentioned it in a pebble hunting, and I thought, oh, yeah, that does happen. But I didn't even really notice it before then because really where the circle is in relation to the box is kind of all you need to know because it will be filled in or hollow depending on whether it intersects with the strike zone on the screen. So it's not like there's much mystery there, right? So, no, this doesn't appear to be changing in any significant way. And I guess that's kind of unfortunate because, you know, even though you can kind of come to rely on the K-Zone and maybe you even think you like it, it does tend to make you dissatisfied and upset at all times. Yeah. And there's still going to be a delay in stadium or, you know, in stadium, like depending on the feed that you're seeing, it won't show this at all. or, you know, there will still be a broadcast delay, of course, as there has been to this point, which is kind of annoying. You know, it's going to be like a nine second delay when you're watching on MLB TV. And then there's like a five second delay on game day or whatever. I don't know if the delays are longer than they were or not. The downside of the delays, as we have noted, is that the center field camera is the one with the delay. And so there's this once you're aware of it, there's this sort of jarring little change because there's like five extra frames added because of the K-Zone so that they can, you know, render that in real time-ish. And that's on the center field camera. So when you switch from another camera to the center field camera, you're sort of like losing two tenths of a second or something. And then you switch back to the field view and you're fast forwarding. Essentially, you're kind of losing a little time. And so you lose a little fielder reaction time and you're less likely to see someone make a catch on a sharp comeback or that kind of thing. And maybe you can tell with the crowd noise. It's subtle, but can bother people when they become aware of it. But, yeah, we're going to continue to see broadcast delays. And you know in stadium this is all concern about sign stealing and you know people picking up on stuff in real time and using it to challenge or whatever And so you know in the stadium the strike zone box will only appear like in the broadcast booth It won be on the jumbotrons and any monitors people can see And I guess it's slightly disappointing, though, that K-Zone will probably continue to be a thing. So, you know, we're kind of pro-challenge system anyway, but that seemed to be an additional benefit that maybe we won't actually get. Yeah, I agree. Boo. Boo. And one nice little thing is that, I don't know if this was confirmed or assumed before, but there are two challenges, but then in extra innings, you get an extra challenge because you're kind of managing under the assumption that it will be nine innings. So if the game goes to extras, if you start the extra inning out of challenges, then you get a challenge for the 10th inning. And if you use that, you get another challenge for the 11th. And if you have challenges remaining at the start of the 10th, you won't get an additional challenge, but you will for a subsequent inning if they're out of challenges at the start of that inning. So that's good, I guess. You don't want teams to have used their challenges and then be in those high leverage late inning or extra inning moments without them. And also, this was kind of amusing, but when a position player pitcher is out there, you can't challenge, which is kind of funny. I mean, yeah, there could still be bad calls. Maybe even you're more likely to get bad calls potentially. I don't know. But once you've gotten to that point, it's like, move it along now. Yeah, it's just like, who cares? Yeah. Let's wrap this up. And also, you can't challenge after replay reviews. The article says so as to avoid a complex series of challenges. So like nested challenges, just contingent challenge on another challenge. But if there is potential for a replay review after an ABS challenge, umpires will check to see if either manager wants to initiate a replay review before restarting the pitch clock. If a challenge and a replay review are requested simultaneously, the ABS challenge will be accepted first. So lots of little wrinkles that are being straightened out and announced. So I'll link to that if there's any question in anyone's mind about how this system will function. In speaking about individual pitches and calls, the manual class A stuff just keeps getting worse. Like it keeps coming out in dribs and drabs. Oh, God. Yeah. Indictments are getting unsealed. And, you know, Luis Ortiz is trying to sever his case from Class A's because I would too. Yeah. Seems to be much worse, which doesn't mean Ortiz is innocent, but he doesn't want to be lumped in with Class A and maybe wants to sort of paint himself as he was the ringleader. And I just went along with it, which based on what we know, seems like it may well be in the case, which doesn't absolve Ortiz, but he doesn't seem to have been doing it as long or as often as Class A was. But there are all sorts of details about how, yes, he was trying to kind of code it, hide it and make it be about cockfighting and rooster stuff. And the feds are saying that is not what it was. And, you know, additional folks have been charged here. But I guess the biggest news is that prosecutors have implicated him on some additional pitches because it was nine pitches mentioned in the initial indictment. And now it seems to be up to 15, including one pitch, at least in the postseason in game one in the ALDS in 2024, because the indictment had said that it started in 2023 and continued through 2025, but hadn't mentioned any specific instances in 2024. four. But now it is lumping in that playoff case. And when we talked about this and when I wrote about it, I mentioned that pitch because it looked so suspicious. And actually, this is mapping on really well to the analysis I did in that article where I think I pinpointed 14 pitches that seemed somewhat suspicious because they were waste pitches on OO counts. And now I guess they're They're saying 15. I don't know if it's exactly the same ones or not. But, yeah, it's not looking good for him. And it looks worse the longer this goes and the more details come out. And the trial is scheduled to start in May. We'll see if that gets delayed. But, you know, then it'll all kind of come out probably and all the dirty laundry. And as I noted, Ron Manfred was asked about this just recently and said, why didn't this get flagged sooner? Because this was going on for years. And he just said something about how it takes time for the patterns to become a parent, which, you know, not really reassuring. And my analysis, of course, was after the fact. But you could have been doing something like that just to flag it proactively. And you could have picked that up when it was actually happening, potentially to say nothing of just whatever wagering was going on that you hope would be flagged by the betting integrity firms. So it doesn't inspire confidence. Yeah, the wagering piece of it is the more concerning part to me. I agree with you that the whole thing is alarming, and the fact that it takes this long really makes you question how confident you can be in the sort of competitive integrity of the entire enterprise. I also wouldn't want to damn a guy on a couple of misreleased pitches that were genuinely just, you know, flubs on the pitcher's part. So I can understand how you would need to see a real pattern. Although I say that and then you're like, it's it's actually, you know, it's nine pitches. It's 15. It's like, well, that doesn't seem like very many. It's when you marry that with the with the betting data and then all the other stuff. Yeah. And like pitch characteristics and arm angles and all sorts of suspicious stuff. Yeah. So I can understand how you would need to have a high degree of confidence. And obviously for it to be a criminal investigation, like this isn't this can't just be the league being like, well, we think, you know, you have a you have an evidentiary burden as, you know, a prosecuting authority who's going to deprive this guy of his liberty. Right. Like you can't just be like, hey, he got sweaty. A couple of those pitches. They went flying. So it's a it's a tricky thing. You're really counting on guys just wanting to play clean, right, for the incentives to not be strong enough for them not to, for the incentives to be powerful enough to prevent them from doing it in the other direction. You have to rely on integrity. You really do. I mean, you have to have these systems in place, and I'm glad that even if it's on such a profound delay that there is some mechanism for them to try to assess these things and that the vetting is being monitored. But it's a vulnerable system. You know, they can do a bunch of stuff and they should do all those things. But you're really counting on a lot of people simultaneously having some sense of integrity or principle for it to all hang together. And that's unpleasant to think about because we know people, you know, we know how people are. Maybe they're not quite this compromised. Maybe they're not quite this uncaring about this thing we all care about. But you're really relying on a lot of people doing the right thing. Yeah, that sucks. Still unanswered. The thing that I'm still most curious about is why. Just what was the motivation here? What was Class A getting out of this aside from some small kickbacks? Was it just kind of doing a favor to benefit these people? Was it just feeling like he would do it because he could and did get away with it for a long time? Was there some other ulterior motive here? That's what I still want to know. Yeah, it does make you wonder and, you know, I hesitate to speculate about these things, but it's like, was was there more than this? Right. Because you could imagine a scenario where even though these are relatively it's like the it's like moneyballing crime. Right. Where it's like tiny edges over time are going to accumulate into a big a big score. you know did they just think that they were going to be able to get away with this in perpetuity and that you know they look back 10 years from now and be like wow we made a couple million dollars doing that but you would think that he would just wouldn't you just rather make money playing baseball i don't know i don't know emmanuel class a man who could know the heart of a man right you know something about him that he's like you know what people will have sympathy for if i say it's cockfighting and stuff. It's like, no, I think that's pretty bad, too, actually. I understand that, like, this is a, that that is an endeavor that has some tradition that I do not have, you know, a connection to, but also, yikes, my guy, yikes. Yeah, I know. Leave him be. Yeah, and I know that the analysis I did did not show anything suspicious in Class A's data prior to 2023, which, if anything, just reinforces the red flags from the period that I looked at, but I was reminded recently that we talked about this years and years ago on the podcast, and I had forgotten, but Class A was at the center of a Northwest League title game in 2018, which was won or lost because he did a walk-off balk to surrender the Northwest League championship. This was Class A, you know, the Eugene Emeralds. And I'm saying that it's pronounced class. Oh, yes. Thank you. Yes. That was good. You should have laughed. That was good. I didn't know where you were going with it at first and then it dawned on me late. But yes, sorry, I didn't mean to know self. You're excellent wordplay there. But thank you. Yeah. You know, I'm not saying that class A was was throwing games in a ball in 2018. And I don't know that people were even betting on those things at that time. But it's just once you open the can of worms or Pandora's box or whatever's in that box, then suddenly you're looking askance at everything. And it's so weird because he was so good during this period when he was doing this stuff, allegedly, that you can't even say, oh, it can't be him because look how good he's been. Clearly, he's trying to win. But no, you can win and also throw some pitches in the process. And, you know, he could have done this for eternity and he wouldn't have made much money if what's been reported is accurate. The people who were in cahoots were making some money, but he personally seemingly wasn't. So it's weird. And that's, you know, that's the piece of it that I imagine, you know, if this does go to a lengthy trial that we will have more insight into, which is what is the motivation beyond that? Because based on what we know, it doesn't seem to fit like an obvious logical framework for him. But we don't really have a great sense of was this being done sort of in in these purely for the assistance of others making money? Because like, you know, well, this guy couldn't throw the pitches that class they could, but he could get some money. Right. So credit to listener Steve to reminding us of that, which was discussed on episode 1269 way back when. Also, didn't even notice the Brewers signed Luis Renjifo since our previous. Oh, yeah. Talking about who's going to play third base, who's going to be their infielder now? Well, now we know. I guess it's like it's almost as if we identify these trouble spots on rosters and then see the same problem. And they're like, yeah, we're on that. Just give us a minute. We do know. Seaton didn't start yet. Yeah. Yeah. And and also Mike Trout apparently returning to center field or from all appearances. We'll we'll talk about this more on our Angels preview. But yeah, he says he wants to play center. He says he's talked to manager and GM and they're both on board with it. And are they going to contradict him at this point? Who knows? And, you know, he also said he wanted to play in the WBC. I don't know if he could have made the team, honestly, if not for sort of sentimental reasons. But insurance issues. I was going to say there's no way he could get insurance. right, because of all the injury issues. But moving out of center was one way to theoretically keep him healthier. And I guess it kind of worked, but not really, because he hurt his knee, and then he ended up DH-ing the rest of the year anyway. But he says he feels more comfortable in center. And he says, at least, that he felt like he was running more in right field and that it was actually less strain on his body in center, which I'm pretty sure the data shows that center fielders run more. But, you know, I don't know about Trout specifically, and maybe I can understand why he would just feel better in his natural position. But I guess if the Angels had a better center fielder, because even though Joe Adele hit a bit better last year, the defensive stats were pretty ugly. Yeah, he's a corner. Yeah, and Trout in 2024, like, he could still play some center. He wasn't great out there anymore. You know, he wasn't that great out there really since he was a rookie, I guess. but he was still at least average seemingly at the position or close to it. And so maybe they just figure, eh, make him happy. He's going to get hurt one way or another. So, like, at least he'll be worth a little more in center. And we just, you know, we have Bryce Teodosio, who is a great fielder, but can he hit at all? Who knows? So maybe they can replace him late in games. But, yeah, I don't know. He wasn't, like, great shakes in right trout either. So maybe it's just kind of like managing his happiness because they figure he'll get hurt somewhere anyway. And a lot of his previous injuries weren't necessarily like while he was playing center or going all out out there. It was a bunch of stuff that happened for one reason or another. And I guess you could say in center, at least you're maybe a little less likely to run into a wall or something. Maybe. But yeah, I don't I don't know if this will last, but it's hard to bank on him staying out there at any position for very long. I guess what I would say about all of this is right now we project the Angels to win 72 games. We have a, you know, a 5.4 percent chance of making the postseason by our odds. That number might shift between now and opening day. Sure. Sure. That could happen. Might shift down. could shift up. Why not? You know, I agree that is it the most conservative move that they could make to manage his health and availability? No. The most conservative thing they could do is just make him a DH, but they don't want to do that and he doesn't want to do that. And they're in this weird spot where it's like there's enough time left on that deal where there is benefit to to keeping the relationship good. There's also enough time left on that deal that you can't be like totally cavalier with his health either. Right? Like they signed for so much longer, Ben, like 2030 is the last year on that contract. Now, will he play that whole time? I don't know. Will they work something out if it gets to a point where he's unplayable? Maybe he's not unplayable now. You know, it's not like he's, he was a 120 WRC plus hitter last year. He is still a viable big leaguer, but we are aware of the decline because of the height of the height. Yes. Height of the high. Height of the heights? Previous heights. Height of the previous heights. Anyway, they're in a weird spot because you want to keep him happy. You're not going anywhere. So some return to prior form from Mike Trout, well, it would be useful to improving that 5.4% playoff odds, but also give your fans something to be excited about. But, like, you've got to maintain some kind of good form for this dude for a couple more years yet if he plays out the whole string. So, I don't know. It's a weird spot to be in. He's not Anthony Rendon, but maybe they figure whatever we get from him is gravy at this point. And 120 is not really that valuable if you're a DH full-time. Right, that's true. So, if he can continue to be a 120 as a center fielder, And if he feels more comfortable out there, then maybe they figure, well, let's get what we can from him before he breaks or until we find a better centerfield alternative. But he's going to turn 35 in August. It's tough to play centerfield well at that age, even if you don't have a lengthy injury track record. So if it's kind of a manifestation of denial and thinking you can still be great, which we've talked about with Trout before, just always saying, I'm almost there. I can get back to who I was. And he's saying the same thing, like he ended last season hitting pretty well and he feels good about his swing. And I hope he's right. I hope that he can be good and actually stick in center and stay healthy. We'll talk about that more in the Angels preview. OK, the plan here to backload the intro and sort of bury the lead on purpose didn't really pan out because there hasn't been any new news about Tony Clark that has emerged while we've been recording this. But what we know and if we had recorded this this morning, it would have been a bit different. And if we recorded it later, it would probably be a bit different. And I imagine we'll return to this as more details come out. But the upshot is that Tony Clark is out after, what, 13 years at the head of the MLB Players Association. And when I saw that news on Tuesday morning, I was somewhat surprised. And this was kind of a last second announcement because he and the Players Association were about to start doing their meetings at various camps across the spring. And they wanted to put a stop to that just as it was about to begin. But when I saw it, I thought, well, it's not the most shocking news because Clark has been embattled, I guess we could say. Sure. And my colleagues at the Press Box podcast would probably say embattled is one of those only in journalism words that you ever really use in kind of regular speech. But he's been embattled now for, gosh, the better part of two years because the feds have been probing and they have been doing various investigations as they did into the NFL, PA, which led to sort of a spectacular self-destruction and leadership change there. But also there have been investigations, really a multi-pronged investigation into one team, which is the joint licensing program, and also this growing the game initiative called Players Way that there's been some suspicion that funds were maybe misappropriated, that it was just, you know, kind of a way to say that this spending was happening and really it was being repurposed. And this is all stemming from, I believe, a whistleblower complaint to the NLRB back in 2024 about Clark or maybe other leaders in the union just misappropriating funds or doing some self-dealing and maybe some nepotism happening. And so all this stuff is swirling. And of course, Clark survived essentially a mutiny within the union in 2024, too, where there was a power struggle and a contingent was trying to force out his number two, the lead negotiator, Bruce Meyer, who I guess would be the number one by default at the moment. And Clark weathered that and seemed to sort of consolidate power. But there's there's been a lot of that going on. And, you know, sort of a divide within the union between the executive subcommittee who were not gung ho about the CBA that ended up being ratified and the rank and file, the players who did ratify it. So against all of that and that backdrop, it was not the most stunning news to me that they might make a change with their executive director. But then Jeff Paston and Don Vanetta reported at ESPN that he actually resigned after an internal investigation revealed that he had an inappropriate relationship with his sister-in-law, who had been hired by the union in 2023. And as we record here on Tuesday afternoon, that's about all we know about that. So there could be many more details, some more salacious than others that surface about the nature of this inappropriate relationship and whether and how it was romantically inappropriate, whether it was inappropriate in a nepotism sort of way or maybe both. Why not both? Right. Right. But this is getting messier. And the initial what came out of various camps and player leaders were sort of signaling this will be OK and we just want stability. And, you know, they were saying something to the effect of we want to go with an interim leader for now and and just sort of project some stability heading into bargaining. And I guess you could even say that maybe it's better for Clark to crash and burn for personal misdeeds than for indictment misdeeds. But they are not mutually exclusive. Right. Yeah. Why not? We don't we don't know what the ultimate result of the ongoing federal investigation will be. Yeah. Right. So it feels like the most journalistically responsible way for me to frame that. Yes. If it came out that everything was innocent except for Tony Clark having some inappropriate relationship with his sister-in-law that didn't really reflect on the rest of the union or leadership or some sort of holistic misdeeds, then I guess that would be maybe the best case scenario. But all this other stuff is hanging over everything also. So I guess the main takeaway is that it's not good to, you know, I guess not having your house in order is often the expression that's used here. They're about to embark on a contentious round of bargaining. There's a lot at stake. And, you know, bargaining hasn't really picked up. It will after the season starts. And so it's kind of like, well, it reminds me almost of when the Nationals axed Mike Rizzo right before the draft. And it was like, well, that that doesn't seem ideal to have a change in leadership right before the draft. But then again, once you decide you want to change in leadership, then better to do it sooner rather than later. Yeah, you want that him to be able to pick your guy at one one. Yeah, exactly. Right. So it's still it's not ideal. You could say, well, it's better to rip the Band-Aid off now than it would be to have that happen in the middle of bargaining. So that's it's certainly preferable for this to come out now than several months from now or in December when the owners impose a lockout or something. So in that sense, better to to have it out. But ideally, of course, there would just be more confidence in leadership and you wouldn't have sort of internal power struggle a couple of years before bargaining kicks off and then an actual change at the top a couple of months before bargaining kicks off. And the assumption seems to be in some quarters now, well, they'll just default to Meyer running things for now, which might be true and might be OK. He's obviously an experienced union executive and has led rounds of bargaining before. And it's not as if you can necessarily say that Tony Clark was great, was some sort of negotiating savant. You know, I don't know that the players have gotten great deals in recent rounds of bargaining. They haven't given up everything, obviously. But he's come in for plenty of criticism about the priorities and how he's handled everything. And so you could say maybe they'd be better off with a non-former player running things with a, you know, career union negotiator actually handling things. Of course, he would have been handling the negotiations on a day-to-day basis anyway. Then again, that player revolt a couple of years ago was sort of centered on trying to force Meyer out. So with Clark out, too, then maybe Meyer is seen as his guy. Maybe Meyer gets the boot, too, or his own power is reduced. So that's why we kind of have to wait and see which way the players go with this and whom they anoint as their next leader and what that signals and also what comes out about Clark and the circumstances of his resignation here. But it's not ideal, I guess, is what you would say. You know, I'm sure Rob Manfred and the owners are thinking things are in disarray over there. It's messy. It's drama. And you'd prefer a united front and someone who had institutional memory and had been around for a while and whom everyone had confidence in. That would probably be better than sort of changing leaders right on the eve of everything kicking off. Yeah. So this is like, I think, a couple of things. Guys are being asked about this in camp, and Andy Kosko, who was our preview guest for the Orioles, spoke to Chris Bassett in camp. Remember, Chris Bassett's on the Orioles now, and he's a member of the executive subcommittee, and he basically said, you know, this is, without a doubt, added stress, added problems, but at the end of the day, I think we'll be okay. And went on to say, we're structured in a way that losing Tony is a big piece because he was the head of our union, But he was not our head negotiator. He was not our head lawyer. So we need to make adjustments, but we are OK. And, you know, of course, he's going to say that he's a member of the executive subcommittee. He wants to present this as something that is survivable, but obviously an obstacle they have to overcome. I think that if what we come to learn is that this is the real reason that he resigned and that whatever results there is from that federal investigation keeps the rest of the PA out of it, that this is something that is very survivable. You want to have cohesion within the membership going into the CBA negotiation. Yeah. And that's why you go with an internal interim director as opposed to some full fledged external search right now, which could last for a while. Yeah, that could last for months. I mean, I also think that you want your membership to have confidence in the union as a force for its own advancement. It's being the membership's advancement, not the people who had the union's advancement. That's part of what is so potentially destabilizing about Clark's being a part of this federal investigation. If you have followed any of the reporting around the shenanigans that have gone on in the NFLPA, that does not seem like a body that had remotely the best interests of its membership at heart. Right And I would have as a as an NFL player a lot of trepidation about that body representing me in any kind of a negotiation with ownership And so that an important thing to avoid from the PA perspective because if the owners decide they really want a salary cap, and they are willing to lose games over it, you are going to have to ask your membership to sacrifice and lose money to hold what I think is a very important line, what the what the PA has persuasively argued is an important line, but is going to be a painful line to maintain. And if you have doubt within the membership about the leadership of your organization, that could be a real problem. And to your point, it's not like it's been totally smooth sailing for them over the last couple of years. I also think that like, I want to be careful in the way I say this. You know, I think there's a lot of value in having a former player in the senior ranks at the union to having multiple former players in the senior ranks at the union. I think that you have credibility with active players when you have that kind of conduit. I also think that in the course of a CBA negotiation, you really want to have a good negotiator, and that person is likely to be a labor lawyer, not a former player. And it doesn't mean that they can't be complementary and reinforcing skill sets. But I think part of where the union went wrong in the last CBA negotiation before this most recent one was that the interest of a certain tranche of player, tranche of player, was prioritized over more junior members of the membership. More junior members of the membership? You know what I mean. Guys who were earlier in their careers, right? guys who were in many cases pre-arbitration. And I think that there has been an important course correction on that regard. I also think that maybe more importantly than any particular issue that the union has prioritized negotiating around, there has been a revived and healthy skepticism of whether the owners are going to act always in good faith. Because I think some of the failures of the last of that was the 2016 negotiation, right, was the one that preceded this most recent agreement, right? It was the 2016 negotiation for the 2017 agreement. Yes, I think that a lot of the failures of that CBA can be attributed to the players assuming and taking as given a greater commitment to winning baseball games than ownership has necessarily displayed over the course of that CBA. Because some of the behavior that has been most damaging to players or that was the most damaging to players over the term of that agreement came down to them prioritizing money and retaining talent past the six years over winning baseball games. And I think that they did a really good job, they being the union, of clawing back a lot of their losses. They couldn't claw back all of them. And some of the ones they weren't able to claw back, I think, were the source of the consternation. But I also think that, like, Bruce Meyer did a good job. The union as a whole did a good job, as good a job as they likely were going to be able to, given how much ground they had to make up. But, you know, it's a big union and it is a interesting union from a like a demographic perspective. The amount of stratification within it in terms of earning potential, the variety of guys. You also have like a union that is populated with a lot of conservative dudes. so that can be kind of at odds like the entire project of the reunion so it's just like it's a hard thing to wrangle this is a long winded way of saying the best time for Tony Clark to have resigned if he was going to was probably six months ago the second best time for him to do it if he was going to do it this year is today because you got to get your ducks in a row you got to get your house in order you have to employ several other metaphors that are about shoring things up. And then you got to be able to go into the negotiations, which start, you know, they start before the agreement expires. They will be engaged in negotiation around the CBA all throughout this year. So you got to get your, you got to get your, now I'm going to do a swear, in order so that you can come to the table as a united front and say, hey, this is what we want. This is how far we're willing to go to get it. Also, Tony, what are you doing? What are you doing, sir? Sir. Well, I guess we'll find out what he was doing. For now, we can only imagine. But there will almost certainly be more to come on this subject. And there is also more to come on this podcast. So after a brief break, we'll be back with Eric and Brendan to talk about top prospects. Well, it's moments like these that make you ask, How can you not be pedantic about baseball? If baseball were different, how different would it be? On the case with light rippin', all analytically. Cross-check and compile, find a new understanding. Not effectively, why, can you not be pedantic? Yes, when it comes to baseball, how can you not be pedantic? Well, this year's top 100 prospects list at Fangraphs, which of course was a top 110 prospects list in actuality, was a three-person affair, and we are joined by two of those people today. James Vegan, I'm sure, will join us for our White Sox preview. Maybe we can talk about some prospects when he's on to talk about the White Sox, too. But today, we have Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Golowski. Hello, guys. Welcome. Hello. Hey, thanks for having me. Thanks for having us. So you have been hard at work and you have ranked many prospects and we will talk about some of them. And we will talk about the differences between you when it comes to some of those prospects because you have published a piece on prospects you disagree about. But I take it there was probably a little disagreement about the number one guy on your list. So we can just start where the list started. And Connor Griffin, number one overall at Fangraphs and everywhere else during this prospect ranking season. Also number one on Den Siborski's Zips list. So stats and scouts, not that they're all that different these days, like him very much. And your write-up on Griffin was among the most effusive, dare I say horny, that I can recall in Fangraphs' top 100 list history. and I think what is most fascinating to me about Griffin is not just how good a player he appears to be, how promising, how loud the tools are and everything and I definitely want you all to talk about that but also just how quickly he climbed these lists. Not that he came out of nowhere because he was a top 10 draftee but last year when you made this list he had not yet made his professional debut and he was not yet on the Fangraph's top 100 list. He was on some top 100 lists a year ago, but not super high on them, I guess, understandably, given his youth and lack of professional experience. But now he's just a no doubt number one. So I don't know that I can recall a ascent as steep as Griffin has made from someone prospect heads might know a year ago, but no one else really would, to just household names that everyone is super excited about. So, Eric, you've been doing this a lot longer and better than I have. So can you recall a comp? He's definitely one of the most promising prospects you have ranked. But just in terms of how quickly he ascended to that position. I think the only couple of comparisons are when Vladdy Jr. and Wander Franco went to the Appalachian League and both really destroyed it. just for anyone this young entering pro ball, there are aspects of their skill set that are black boxes. You just don't know how things are going to go. And for Griffin, that was true in a couple of ways. One on defense, because, you know, when you're watching kind of Griffin in high school, in the environment that matters most, which is like with Team USA during Team USA trials on the showcase circuit at like, you know, perfect game, all American. And, you know, where the other 40 guys around are the best 17, 18 year olds in the country or at some of the international competitions, like on the planet, you know, the apples to apples, these guys in that space is really important. And in Griffin's case, he was playing right field. Like there were better shortstops on TUSA's roster. There were better center fielders. And so, you know, to see Connor Griffin pitch and play shortstop at his high school field is one thing. And then to sort of see, you know, him hit and struggle a little bit against, you know, sliders or whatever it was, there were still questions about him entering pro ball. And his ceiling has been this the whole time. Because some of the overt physical tools were all, you know, just as evident as they were for some of the other, you know, elite high school players soon after they debuted. And it's like, oh, actually, hey, Mike Trout can hit and this is going to happen really fast. Trout is probably the other one for him to go from a late first rounder to the top prospect in baseball, although not in a unanimous way, more because of the presence of Bryce Harper, you know, and Matt Moore. But yeah, this is meteoric, truly, to the point where Pittsburgh was playing Griffin in big league spring training games in center field, you know, 12 months ago, because we just weren't sure, they weren't sure, what is the best spot for this guy going to be? And then by the end of the year, it's like, oh, this is a plus shortstop. He's added, you know, 10, 15 pounds of muscle over the course of the season, like showed up for spring training last year stronger, continued to progress and get stronger throughout the year, which is, you know, runs counter to what is typical. If you play in a six-month season, you shed weight. So just, you know, special in every way and at the point where it's just hard to deny that he does everything well to like very, very well, including the defensive part of it at shortstop, which was the thing that really struck me most. But like, Brendan, like when this was happening and you're working literally for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yeah, Brendan was a pro scout for the Pirates, to be clear. What were the internal conversations? Like when did the word that this is happening, this guy is actually going to do this, start to become clear within the org, if you don't mind talking about it. Pretty quickly, actually. And one of our scouts actually called me because he had just seen our Bradenton team. And he was pretty effusive, and he's not somebody who's inclined to hyperbole. And he's been scouting for 30 years. And he said, this is the best player I've ever scouted at this level. And so that made me sit up and go, whoa. And so that was last April or early May. So we had an idea pretty early on. The other funny conversation that happened was actually with Eric, like June or so, because I was with him at a field scouting a complex league game, and we were talking about top prospects. And I was like, you know, I think come 2027, I think Connor Griffin's going to be the number one prospect in baseball. He probably won't be, but for a very different reason than I thought at the time. I'm curious, and this can kind of go to either of you, The defense piece of this, I think, was the most sort of incredible to me. And obviously, I haven't seen Griffin in person, other than when he came into the suite at the draft combine. And I was happy that I had enough of my filter on to not go, oh, my God, your neck. Because he's just such an enormous guy. Like you said, the physicality is obvious when he walks in the room. And that was true when he was a pre-draft guy. But when you're thinking about how his defense has evolved and the way that he sort of made himself into this plus shortstop, is that, do you think, just the benefit of reps, of continuing sort of physical development? Like, how do you go from being someone who can't even necessarily start at short for Team USA to being this guy? Well, I think some of it has to do with the repetitions, because once you get into the end of your first pro season and you've played 100 plus games, you've just done this now every day for longer than any other sustained period in your life. And when you're doing it at high A, double A, the pace of it is totally different than when you're taking infield, you know, at area code games or whatever. And I just think that there are certain players who it exposes, and then there are certain players who adjust to it and rise to it. Not like in an emotional way, like, okay, I can do this. Just that your skills sharpen because the environment you're in forces them to do so, or you're going to center field. And some of it is that this is just such a talented athlete that the baseball field for him seems small. Like, they're really great players. You know, Jose Altuve's had an amazing career. He doesn't make the field look small in a way. Like, he's skilled enough that he can operate within it. But it's really like Corey Seager, like, watching Corey Seager do some stuff on defense because of his size. Like, the ease with which Corey Seager and Carlos Correa make some throws allows them to be as big as they are and play the position. It's stuff that, like, Francisco Lindor has to do something acrobatic or athletic or agile to complete. Carlos Correa and Corey Seager make look, like, effortless, like they're just sort of sitting in a lounge chair. And Kyle Griffin does, like, both things, where he's so rangy and explosive that he does some of the Lindor stuff and also can just sort of put his foot in the ground and chuck it over there on a line from all these tough, like, deep in the hole, weird up the middle, like, all sorts of things. as we were going through the group of middle infielders towards the top of the list, and there are several of them, and you're re-watching all these guys back-to-back-to-back play defense, most of them are just like, okay, this is fine, or you can play there, and then there are a couple of them who stand out and really blow your mind. Connor Griffin is in that group. He's in that group with, like, Carson Williams and Franklin Arias, where this is a special defensive shortstop, not merely someone who is fine to play there. and when Connor Griffin was drafted, if he would have guaranteed me he would have been fine to play there, well, then he is someone who is probably just like 75th on the top 100 list 12 months ago. I was looking at his Instagram, and evidently he got married a few weeks ago. He has yet to turn 20, so he is just ahead of the typical developmental timeline in all sorts of ways. So I guess this is tough to project, but if and when he gets promoted this season, as soon as the Pirates are ready to flip that switch, would you expect him to just be ready to star from day one, a la Tatis, or could you foresee some growing pains, a la Jackson Holiday or Bobby Wood Jr.? The comp that felt right from a tools standpoint like two weeks ago was young Hanley Ramirez where the stolen base piece of it is what is going to jump off of the page at you during the first like year and a half two years of this guy's big league lifetime and then the power is really going to start showing and they're going to be some peak like 30 30 maybe 40 40 seasons or 30 40 something like that where he's also hitting 280 just because of how hard all the contact is, even though it's roughly an average amount of contact. But when you look at Bobby Witt's prospect DNA, when you look at Hanley's plate discipline and zone contact rates and stuff like that, Witt and Hanley are better pure contact hitters than Griffin. It's probably like half a grade, at least, in Witt's case, and more than that in young Hanley's case. like really, really special player was young Hanley Ramirez. Griffin, I bet you will struggle with the big league breaking ball enough that he's not going to be like super duper star right away. But playing plus shortstop defense and like getting to power on its own makes you an above average player. So I think like over the course of a season, he's still going to be like a two and a half, three and a half win player in year one, even though we, I think we'll have seen more strikeouts than we will at his best and less like in-game power than we will at his best. but still really, really good basically right away. So we can maybe pivot now to some of the other guys on this list. We could just talk about young shortstops all day, and I guess we'll hit on a couple of them. But I want to actually talk about a duo from Detroit, because if I'm a Tigers fan, I have to be thrilled with where Kevin McGonigal and Max Clark placed on this list, not only because of how much you guys like them, but how close to the majors they both seem to be. Talk to us about those two guys and then maybe when you think Tigers fans can expect them in Motown. I think what stands out with those two is just how mature their skills are. They're obviously tooled up. Kevin McGonigal, I think, had the highest hit tool on our entire list. Max Clark has a chance to be a plus center fielder. They've both grown into more power than we expected them to have on draft day. But the way they're able to cover the zone, the way that they're able to take a mature at-bat, the way that their approach has grown just kind of screams competence. And these are guys that even though they're young, they're moving very quickly. And that's why somebody like McGonagall has a 2026 ETA. And it wouldn't shock me if Clark also gets to the big leagues at some point in the 2026 season, even if he's probably got a little bit more runway ahead of him than McGonagall does. Yeah, I think that's right. Like McGonagall has worked at second and third base because he's probably not a big league caliber shortstop. I don't think either Brendan or I really care where he ends up playing defense. He worked at third base more during the fall league. I thought that it was a pretty good fit for him. And if Colt Keith doesn't hit or if Gleyber Torres gets hurt or, you know, Zach McKinstry crashes to earth. good player, I think, but like, you know, Zach McKinstry strikes me as great utility guy on a real contending team rather than the year he had last year. And then the same thing for like with Clark, Parker Meadows, who deserves prolonged like healthy period to show us what kind of player he actually is at 26. But if like by July, he's hitting a buck 80, and Max Clark is destroying in AAA, well, Clark should probably be up if the Tigers are serious about, you know, going for it in scoobles last year. So both guys, I think, are really talented. There's something about the way how explosive Max Clark's hands are that is just, you know, really, really special and has been so since he was like a high school sophomore. There were times scouting Max Clark in high school where I was kind of worried for the safety of, like, the pitcher because of how hard, like, back through the middle of the field, his contact is just at that level. Like, some of these kids could not, were not capable of protecting themselves, you know, how hard, how hard he was putting the ball into play. You know, towards the end of our process, I did mention to Brendan, I was just like, you know, we like Clark in center field and we think McGonagall's more like second or third base. Is there an argument that these guys should be flipped? You know, I like McGonagall a lot. I do think it's closer to six hit than seven hit, and think that the reverse might be true of Clark, ultimately because of how quick his hands are. But McGonagall's just so short to the ball with sneaky power for his size, and it just feels so much safer. But, you know, great draft, great draft, great first round for the Tigers, like, you know, to totally change your fortunes and potentially of your franchise with one year, was John Schneider picking players for the Tigers? Yeah, for just one night to completely reset the trajectory of the franchise potentially. This is not like when the Tigers had two of the top-hitting prospects in baseball and Torkelson in green when there was a little bit of hit risk or just kind of a lower floor for Torkelson if he didn't really hit for power because he was kind of locked into first base. Like these are nobody's truly safe, but these are young up-the-middle types or third base in McGonagall's case if it goes that way. with mature hit tools. They're just higher floored players. And it's really exciting because there's also ceiling. And there's one other point that I kind of wanted to touch on with those two is just like how different they are and how different they carry themselves out on the field where McGonagall is this extremely intense competitor. You know, he's going to get in fights with umpires. He's going to be yelling at himself. And Max Clark is this extremely polished, you know, all over the video board has a full-time crew that goes around and handles his social and travels around with him. They're very different people, but they're also kind of tied together in a way that is special and kind of rare. Well, we could keep talking about shortstops for a while because you've got seven of them in your top 15. I don't know if that's unusual. Obviously, shortstops are valuable. So a lot of top prospects tend to be shortstops and a lot of the most athletic guys start out as shortstops, at least in pro ball and maybe move elsewhere. But maybe we could linger a little longer on two of the top six guys, two fellow teenagers, Jesus Made and Leo DeVries. And they came up on a couple of our recent team previews, but happy to hear more about them. Yeah, I mean, Jesus Made probably talked about him on the pod last year at this time, because, then he was coming up from the DSL and was ranked in rarefied air for a player who had that level of experience. And again, he's been pushed through the minors pretty aggressively and performed basically the whole time. And the way things are going to pan out for him, I think there's still variance as far as what position he's going to end up at and what he looks like physically when he's hit maturity. There are like Robinson Cano-type outcomes for Mane, where he's like a switching version of that at second base, times when his left-handed swing looks like that. And then there's a version of him that stays more agile and ends up being a really good shortstop where there's a lot of contact and great plate discipline, and he sings the ball, but doesn't necessarily lift the ball enough to hit for 25-plus home runs. All that stuff is still in play. He's still changing. He showed up for camp looking stronger, such that I'd, like, tailor my forecast more toward the physical second base bucket now than I did when we wrote the Brewers list, you know, in the fall, winter. But still, like, an unbelievable prospect where there's just a chance for him to do everything at a premium level. And then DeVries is more big switching power, probably going to strike out. And some of the same variance, I think, applies to him on defense. I think what sticks out with DeVries also is just that, and this is true with Made, who made a very quick ascension, is actually even a little bit younger. But in an era where prospects are getting to the big leagues quicker than ever, partly because there's better training, partly because we've eliminated a level, and that's just kind of having a propulsive effect on everybody. Leo DeVries was extremely young, even by those standards, to get to AA last year. And so he was still 18 when he got promoted for three weeks or so. And he hit five homers in 21 games and just took mature at bat after mature at bat. And he's facing pretty good competition there. And against Mitch Bratt, one of the best command guys in the minor leagues, he sits on a changeup on the lower outside corner and hits a homer the opposite way from the side of the plate that he's not as good at the right side. You know, if this is what it looks like from that side of the plate, the ceiling here is very high. Defensively, he's not quite as advanced. He'll make some incredible plays occasionally. He'll also be a little slow, or he'll one-hop a throw that you'd think, you know, why didn't you just, like, step through that and get it to first on the fly. And I think it's just a case where the glove hasn't quite matured as quickly as the bat. But looking at the tape, unless he grows in a way that we're not quite expecting, I think he's got a very good chance to be there and be all right. This is a special talent as well. There are a lot of pitchers on this list, more than we typically have. Eric, I know you made mention of that in the intro. And a lot of these guys are going to be guys who our listeners are at least partially familiar with, in the case of some of them, like Trey Savage, because they saw him throw incredibly good and important innings in the postseason. But, you know, you have a bunch of guys who have made big league debuts and gotten a couple of starts in the majors. So I want to ask who each of you would highlight among the pitchers who have not yet debuted, because I don't think we need to extol the virtues of Nolan McLean, but there are a number of guys on here who listeners might be less familiar with. So can you each pick one and tell us about him? And maybe, Eric, we can start with you and then go to Brendan. We can talk about it in a lot of different ways. There are some individuals who are interesting to talk about, like, where to place them in the hierarchy of all these pitchers and why. And there are definitely guys where they're names to know for the 2026 season. And they're like end up being clusters of players as we're working on these lists. We do it in buckets so that we can apples to apples everyone and sort of fold everybody together Brody Hopkins with the Rays he one who I think is going to blow a lot of people minds because he so athletic his arm is so fast we talking mid 90s He's a former college position player who converted pretty late, like smaller school, and then was part of the Randy Rose-Randish trade, was drafted by the Mariners, and then really quickly became, I thought anyway, the Mariners' best pitching prospect. He gets traded for Randy. And then the Rays, even though what is working for Brody Hopkins very, very quickly, the Rays decide, we're changing this. And they totally overhaul his approach. And now he has gone from Camillo Duval-looking sidearm guy to more traditional-looking three-quarters release, uphill fastball, and then this dynamic cutter. Like if there's a guy, there may be a couple guys in the minors who, you know, if they're going to be Emmanuel Colossae, like this is the guy in just the baseball way. I love that we've gotten to mention Wander Franco and Emmanuel Colossae on this podcast already. So much fun. But just, you know, the outcome for Brody Hopkins, even if he isn't going to be a starter, looks something like that fleaky, totally unique guy with crazy uphill fastball and cut, and the ceiling, you know, if he's a starter is, well, we don't really know because there aren't many starters who look like this, and it's one of those pitchers who, if the Rays are competing for a division crown, you can see this guy pitching. He could be this year's Trady Savage. His stuff is that good, and we're just waiting for some of this to solidify because he is a recent draftee from a small school who is new to pitching. And so his trajectory, who knows if there's going to be, if that thing clicks for him this year, then he could be Trey Savage 12 months from now. I'd like to highlight Ryan Sloan, Mariners draftee, second round 2024, continues the pattern of the Mariners crushing it at the top of the draft in recent years. And this is one that I wanted to push up the list from the start. I started the blurb on the site with, can I interest you in three-plus pitches? How about from a good athlete with a traditional build? What if I told you that he struck out or that he walked less than two per nine last year? You'd like that, right? That sounds good. He throws mid-dupper 90s, flashes a plus slider, plus splitter. Looks like it's going to be a relatively platoon-neutral mix. Field to spin gives him a chance to develop another breaking ball. He's still only 20, so this might not be the fully fleshed arsenal yet. But it's a really good combination of athleticism, size, ingredients. The one blemish, if there is one here, is that the way that his body and his delivery works is he tends to fall off the mound a little bit towards the first base side. He tends to pull the ball with him, so his glove side command is very good for somebody his age, but he's not as adept at getting to the other side of the plate. And so that predictability and locations is the most obvious nitpick there. And finding a way to get to other parts of the zone should be a developmental goal for for 2026. But that shouldn't detract from all the all the really, really good things that are happening here. And for me, he was the best pitcher in the low minors last year. So we've talked about the trend toward fewer pitchers appearing on prospect lists. I've written about that. As you noted, a few more on this list, 40 percent of the top 10 and 40 percent of the top 110 are pitchers. any particular reason for that, Eric? Or is it just sort of a cyclical thing? Well, I think we're going to find out over time whether there's a reason for it or if it is just a random one-year thing that, like, I think there's an argument for at some point in the prospect population there should be more pitchers than hitters. At some point, if we do, like, the top 500, there should probably be more pitchers than hitters in that sample. The depth required for pitching just necessitates more dudes. And so at some point where the fungibility line is, where the margin is for pitchers, it's just way deeper in the player pool than it is for hitters. I don't really need a backup second baseman like Isan Diaz. Like, I don't. But I do need the pitching version of that guy. I probably need the pitching version of that guy to throw, like, 30 innings for my team. at some point during the year. And so is that line going to consistently be within the top 115 guys or so? Probably not, because I still just think in a lot of instances we would rather have a maybe very good hitter than a probably pretty good pitcher. And that's why you see so many teenage infielders high on this list and just throughout this list in general, there's definitely a greater variance in Bustris for guys like Dax Kilby and Yofron Castillo and some of the young infielders or center fielders on this list than there is for Trey Gibson and Michael Forret and players who don't have a chance to win a Cy Young award ever, I don't think, unless Michael Forret becomes Shane Bieber, who is the reason Michael Forret's on the list. Like, you know, some of the revisions, the reflection, the how's my driving type work that we've been doing, like it says, well, you undervalue Robert Valdez and Ranger Suarez and Shane Beaver. Why? You're not properly noting that they have like roughly seven command of good secondary stuff. Well, who in the minors is that perhaps? Michael Ferret. I think some of it is a change in strategy by teams. Understanding pitching depth is important. Some of it maybe is just a one-year thing. I've got two quick theories if I can. It seems to me that there's a number of pitchers who got very close to graduating, Nolan McLean, Trey Savage, and then others who debuted, Bubba Chandler, Peyton Tolley, Connelly Early, Logan Henderson. I'm sure there's a couple others. Just a very high number of those guys, and if four or five of them had thrown another three weeks, they're off the list. Maybe it looks more normal. The other thing that crossed my mind as we were doing this list is that the threshold for being a big league hitter is really high right now. You need to be able to deal with elite velocity, really, really good stuff with an approach. And there's just not that many guys in the minor leagues who can do it. And there were tons of guys that Eric and I talked about in the course of constructing this list where there was just something scary in the profile that we felt wasn't going to enable them to hit at the highest level to the degree warranted to be on this list. And so both of those things working together, I think, creates a list that reflects that there's a lot of really good pitching right now. Yeah, that makes sense. I think it's just obviously the injury factor, but then also increasingly the best position players are just more valuable than the best pitchers in the big leagues just because position player playing time hasn't decreased as much as pitcher playing time has. So all else being equal, you want the good position player who's more likely to stay healthy and just have more playing time than the pitcher who's more likely to break. And even if they stay healthy, won't pitch as many innings. But all what you're saying makes sense to me. And yeah, we know there's pitching depth because there's just innumerable guys who have absolutely nasty stuff. They're just not showcasing it over as many innings. I wanted to ask about Ethan Solace because, Brendan, if I remember correctly through the haze of Top 100 Editing, you wrote this blurb and noted that he is perhaps the youngest patient to come down with a case of prospect fatigue. He is 19 right now, if our listeners aren't aware. And this was a guy who at points was placed very, very highly such that, Eric, you felt compelled to basically write a piece to our readers being like, hey, relax, please don't hound this kid into desperation trying to get his autograph on backfield. And now he's a couple of seasons removed from that, has had injury, has had underperformance. What do you guys see as Solace's realistic long-term trajectory at this point? I don't know that it's changed that much. Part of this is just like one of those cases where I don't know if the ceiling from last year has changed much. It's just like all the mitigating factors from the last two seasons have made it so that he's less likely to reach it. This is still a very strong defensive catcher. Eric has highlighted in a couple of places where the blocking is the one part of his game that's not as polished to the same degree as his receiving, which is elite, and his arm strength and his ability to get out of a crouch. and his ability to work with the pitching staff, all of that is very good. At the plate, he had a really bad 2024 season. Some of the numbers under the hood with respect to his contact rate weren't quite as scary as some of the top-line numbers would indicate, and we were kind of looking to 2025 as a chance to see to what degree he was going to be able to bounce back. And then when he missed the entire season with a back injury, a pretty scary one, we didn't get that opportunity. But this still looks like a guy who could grow into significant power and be a power and defense backstop, and those are really valuable. Obviously, we've got a lot more risk than we would have guessed two or three years ago, but this is still a good player. This is still somebody who deserves to be ranked and somebody I'm excited to see this spring. What did your time with the team in between stints at Fangrass teach you, if anything, about team prospect ranking versus public prospect ranking. And I've always thought Eric's approach to prospect ranking is maybe a little more aligned with teams than some, just kind of giving credit to players who might not be as flashy, but just will provide value, which teams care about more so than, say, fantasy players, I suppose. But I wonder what your perspective is on that, Brendan, or what you brought back from your time behind the MLB paywall? I think there are a couple of things that are similar and a couple of things that are different. So I think that you're right to know, like Eric's focus on like the whole game is definitely something that is emulated within a team structure. I think the biggest thing that was different for me going to the Pirates from Fangraphs was I noticed, or at least I felt on the public side, and I don't know if my colleagues felt or feel similarly, but it feels to me that there's sort of an incentive to be conservative with guys. I think readers understandably want to know who will be good, and kind of rounding down on players is just a way to be more accurate. And on a team side, it's the exact opposite. You want to find guys who have, like, any shot of being good. Like, can we get this guy, even if he's not that likely to be good, can we get him in a deal? Do we think there's something that we can do with him? You know, can we buy low? Is there any upside here at all where his current employer may not see it? And so that manifests in scouting reports in a couple of different ways. One, it leads you to being optimistic on way more players. The equivalent of like the 50 FV, you know, where we have 110 in the game, you know, I'd probably write that 30 or 40 times a year, including several times at levels where you would very rarely see it on our top prospect list. The format also lends itself to staying on guys a little bit longer. And I think the discrepancy, again, makes sense where we're dropping Ethan Salas because he's been hurt and there's real risk introduced there. If I'm a scout, my report on him hasn't really changed a whole lot because I still see the same tools. And I can factor in the injury a little bit, but I'm staying on the player and what I think he can do. and ultimately it'll be up to the decision makers higher in the front office to weigh that kind of thing differently than I would as a scout. You guys were largely able to come to consensus on these guys. Ben mentioned that you wrote a piece today for the site on guys you disagreed on, but I'm sure that you each had a guy on this list or two or maybe three who you both agreed should be there, but who you were the real champion of. He's your guy. So who are those guys? Connor Griffith. Well, I guess the players to talk about, Brendan, are probably the ones who ended up on our 55-grade bubble and then tipped into that tier. That grade, you know, 55, we have like 30 of them. The number of players in the minors at this time, you know, who are given that grade, like, tends to hover around 25, 30 guys. There are times in the past when my list of 55s and above has, like, cut down to 50. So for us, that was Carson Benji with the Mets, former two-way player outfielder, just as one of the best swings in the minors, really performed well throughout our 2025 season that ended with him at AAA. and then I guess for Brendan it was probably Bryce Rainer. Yeah, just that was one of those you pull on the tape and you see what he's able to get to with his bat speed and it's just one of those moments where it's like, whoa, that's electric. That's different than what other people can do. Let's stay on this. There's risk in that he's young and that he only played, I want to say 25 to 30 games last year before he missed the season with an injury. And so that maybe robbed us of the chance to have a little more nuanced view of who he is and what he can do. But in what little he put on tape, it really stood out. The other one here that I think could be interesting for Eric to talk through a little bit is we talked about Carson Williams a lot because of the degree to which that he struck out when he got promoted, which was consistent with how often he struck out in the minor leagues and some of the elements in his swing. but I thought Eric's case for ranking him that high in spite of that was interesting and maybe something that listeners would like to hear. He's 22 he's an unbelievable defensive shortstop and there's some amount of power and it's just about how for sure there is like a binary hit tool risk where there's just so too many strikeouts for you to survive even when you're doing enough other stuff to be, have been a really good prospect to this point. But, you know, Carson Williams has always found a way to perform, even though he's had these underlying issues. He's only been a shortstop for so long. You know, he was a two-way high school player who was a pretty serious prospect on the mound too. So, you know, he hasn't focused on hitting for all that long, even though it feels like forever because he's 22 and a half and we've known his name since he was 17. But, you know, there's just, there are enough examples. Willie Adamas is the version of Carson Williams that really pans out to the degree that we had hoped for when Williams was doing nothing but thriving into the upper levels of the minors, where, yeah, he's striking out like 28% of the time, but there's enough power for him to hit 25-plus homers and play unbelievable defense. Now with Williams, it's trended below that to this area where he's more like at 30, 33 percent strikeout area. And that's definitely a little bit dicier. It doesn't feel like a big gap between what Willie Adamas has done and what Carson Williams seems poised to do. And that's why he's not a 60. It's interesting because when you look at position by position, what the DNA of the typical player looks like, at shortstop, contact is just a big, big part of it. The average rate of players who play contact rate for shortstops is better than that of some of the quarter positions. And it's not because the standard for offense at shortstop is higher. It's just because, well, the guys who can actually play shortstop tend not to have quite as much power as the athletes who can play first base or right field. And so what they have to be able to do then, if not hit for power, is make a lot of contact. And so it is tough to find comps for a guy like Carson Williams, even if you're relatively optimistic that he's going to dial down what he's doing strikeout-wise. Trevor Story and Zach Netto and Willie Adamas and these guys, like, striking out 25% of the time. That's, like, the high end of the position group at short, and it's still a good bit better than Carson Williams. But, you know, you're just hoping that someone this young and precocious and relatively underdeveloped is still going to be able to make enough adjustments to get into that sort of area. 53 of the prospects you ranked are listed with 2026 ETAs. That includes some guys who actually already arrived and made their debuts. of those guys, and it makes sense that the list would be largely composed of them, because the closer you are to the majors, the more certain you can be about someone's outlook. Is there anyone there you feel most confident about just making a splash this season, whether it's Yassavage just picking up where he left off and the league not really adjusting, or someone we got a glimpse of, like McLean or Samuel Basayo or Chase DeLauter, someone like that, just immediately making an impact. Obviously, it's going to depend on playing time and opportunity, too. But is it going to be someone like that or someone like Andrew Painter? We've been just waiting forever for him to be healthy and in the big league. So whether this is someone you think will be the best prospect long term or not, I'm interested in who you see as an impact player for this year. There are a couple of teams, Atlanta and the Angels both stick out as, if you're a good player in their organization, they are going to get you to the big leagues fast. Sometimes that's a detriment of your own, you know, performance once you arrive. And, you know, Tyler Bremner with the Angels is a good bet on this list. You know, I sort of tipped my hand with Brody Hopkins, and I think a lot of the time the answer is just one of the best young pitchers on a team that ends up making the postseason. And so that could be Peyton Tolley, could be Bubba Chandler, fingers crossed, Pirates fans. That would be really cool. I think I'm going to say Brandon Sproat. I think that Milwaukee's player development machine, it's exceptional. And the Mets are great with pitchers too, but there were changes made to Brandon Sproat last year that clearly didn't work. I'd like to see him get back to the player he was for a pretty big window from 2020 to 2024, where there's a better change up and his arm slots a little bit lower. There were things that the Mets changed or that Sprott changed. I don't really know who was motivated to do that stuff, but he had just been so successful. But I think now that there's been a change of scenery there, Milwaukee always finds a way to contend, and Sprott's 2025 season really is the weird blip that feels different than the rest of his career, and I would just bet that he gets back to being the well-rounded, like heavy, sinking, fastball, great changeup, upper 90s starter that he has mostly been throughout his career and probably weigh heavily on the way the NL Central unfolds. I don't want to take the cop-out pitchers. I think Nolan McLean is pretty obviously going to have an impact as long as he stays healthy. So I want to highlight an outfitter that I think has gone a little under the radar in Dylan Beavers. He's somebody who was drafted in 2022 out of college. He was at Cal by the standards of a prospect drafted in the first round out of college. He's moved somewhat slowly through the minor leagues. And then last year, he managed to get to the power that scouts have been forecasting for a while. And it was kind of like everything fell into place because now he's got above average raw. He's still really quick to the ball despite longer levers. He's got a great approach, great feel for the strike zone. He's going to be a solid corner outfielder. This is not the highest ceiling guy in the minor leagues, but he's there. He produced a little bit in his call-up last year, and he just feels like somebody who could be a good player right from the outset. I'll take Walshmit, too, in that vein. I'll take Walshmit over Beavers as a 2026 impact guy because the way Baltimore has tended to behave is like, oh, it sort of takes Heston Kerstad, and there's just a crowded group there that I think they have to sift through and it might be difficult for Beavers to do nothing but hit, such that he seizes a job where Walshmit, if Walshmit goes off during spring training and Jorge Barosa is your, you know, alternative starting left fielder, like, I think that there's just an easier path to playing time for Ryan Walshmit in Arizona and a clearly motivated club now that, you know, they're all in financially on a roster that has Zach Allen and Merrill Kelly back. Well, we will end prospect week or be close to ending prospect week with our annual picks to click piece where everyone highlights guys who didn't make the 100 this year, but who seem likely to be top 100 prospects in 2027. And I won't ask you to spoil much of that, but if you could each pick one guy who you anticipate being a pick to click for you and telling us a little bit about why they didn't make it this year, but what about their profile is exciting for next year. Bishop Letton with the Brewers. If you're looking for who could be Jacob Mizerowski, who could be Peyton Tolley, players who, you know, a year ago, well, Tolley wasn't on the list yet. Mizerowski was stuffed pretty good. But just like monster extension, huge slider, projectable young Brewers pitcher who, if he comes out this spring throwing 96 consistently, that guy's going to be a slam dunk top 100 guy a year from now. I'll take another pitcher. I'll take Trey Gregory Alford in the Angel System. This is somebody who was on the complex last summer and then got called up to low A towards the end of the season. Really big fastball. Doesn't have great traits, but when you're reliably upper 90s and touching 100, you can get away with that a little bit. Some projectability in the secondaries, big power pitchers, physicality. And one thing that I'm watching for all of the Angels is that they have a new director of pitching in Jarrett Hughes. The Angels for years and years have been a little bit behind the curve in what they do with their arms developmentally. They tend to take guys who throw hard and don't really have good secondary traits and then just have them throw the fastball through a brick wall practically. And Gregory Alford seems like somebody who could really benefit from a little bit of a different approach, which it sounds like is what the angels are going to be taking by and large, just shifting directions in how they develop their arms. And so he's somebody who was already kind of in the conversation for this list just with the big arm and some of the way the secondaries flashed. And just in his natural progression could have been a pretty reliable pick-to-click anyway. And now there's even, like, secondary reasons to have optimism. He's just somebody who really jumps out to me immediately for that question. All right. Well, go read the top 100 slash top 110 reward, the labor that these guys and James and of course, the many hours that Meg sank into this thing to make it worthwhile. And also check out their supplementary coverage, their debates about other prospects. They did a chat on the website. So other players that you may be curious about may have been asked about there. We will link to all of that. And as always, we welcome your prospect wisdom. So thank you, Eric. And thank you, Brendan. Thank you. Well, no white smoke after day one of the player conclave. The union's player leadership did not vote on naming an interim director. Chris Bassett said, I feel we have made mistakes in the past by making rush decisions. The executive subcommittee and all the reps agreed we want to get this right. We don't want to get it done just because there's a void. He then went on to say, I would think we would have this wrapped up within 24 hours. But at the end of the day, I believe that making sure all 1,200 plus players have a true opinion on this and a true understanding of everything we know is more important than filling it as soon as possible. Sounds smart. More to come. Also, thanks to a Patreon supporter who goes by Duke in our Patreon Discord group for spotting a rare example of a Tyler Wade-Taylor Ward mix-up in print. Usually it's a verbal stumble, but here we have a Ken Rosenthal column for The Athletic from February 14th, 14th, which reads, the Orioles also signed free agent reliever Ryan Helsley and center fielder Leody Traveris and traded for outfielder Taylor Wade. That's right. It says Wade, not Ward. And at podcast press time, a few days after the piece was published, it still says Wade. I do see one comment from a Ryan F that just says Taylor Ward, not Taylor Wade. Add another example to a very long list. Tigers and A's previews coming next time. Until then, you can support Effectively Wild on patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild and signing up to pledge some monthly or yearly amount to help keep the podcast coming help us stay ad free and get yourself access to some perks as have the following five listeners atticus leo weber baby galen and michael mcavoy thanks to all of you patreon perks include access to the effectively wild discord group for patrons only monthly bonus episodes playoff live streams prioritized email answers personalized messages shout outs at the end of episodes, potential podcast appearances, discounts on merch and ad-free Fangraphs memberships, and so much more. Check out all the offerings at patreon.com slash effectivelywild. If you are a Patreon supporter, you can message us through the Patreon site. If not, you can contact us via email. Send your questions, comments, intro and outro themes to podcast at fangraphs.com. You can rate, review, and subscribe to Effectively Wild on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, and other podcast platforms. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash group slash effectivelywild. You can find the Effectively Wild subreddit at r slash effectively wild. And you can check the show notes in the podcast posted fan graphs or the episode description in your podcast app for links to the stories and stats we cited today. Thanks to Shane McKeon for his editing and production assistance. We'll be back with another episode a little later this week. Talk to you then. Bobby Shane, Bobby Shands, effectively wild. Joey Manessis, walk off three-run digger. Stop it. Walk off three-run shot. Oh, my God. Meg, he's the best player in baseball. Effectively wild. Wild, wild, wild, wild.