The Bill Simmons Podcast

A Crazy 49ers Win, Baltimore’s Alive, Week 18 Stakes, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

112 min
Dec 29, 20255 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal break down Week 17 NFL action, playoff implications, and Week 18 stakes across both conferences. They analyze surprising team performances, quarterback evaluations, and make their picks for the final week's games while discussing the unpredictability of the 2025 NFL season.

Insights
  • The 2025 NFL season is historically chaotic with potential 8-9 division champions, multiple new head coaches as top seeds, and unprecedented parity making traditional playoff favorites unreliable
  • Quarterback evaluation is critical in playoffs; teams with proven playoff experience (Purdy, Allen) outperform talented but inconsistent young QBs (Caleb Williams, Bo Nix) under pressure
  • Fantasy football and high-stakes betting on Week 18 games creates perverse incentives where teams may rest players or tank, making traditional spread analysis unreliable
  • Defensive performance variance is extreme; the 49ers' defense can't stop anyone but still wins through offensive firepower, while Seattle's defense shows inconsistency despite strong moments
  • Coaching decisions (Dan Campbell calling plays, Todd Bowles' management) significantly impact team performance more than raw talent in compressed playoff windows
Trends
Increased parity in NFL reducing predictability of playoff outcomes and traditional betting modelsYoung quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Bryce Young) struggling in high-pressure situations despite regular season successDefensive injuries and depth chart depletion forcing teams to rely on offensive firepower rather than defensive stopsWeek 18 strategic resting and tanking creating gambling and fantasy football volatilityOffensive line injuries (Trent Williams, Will Campbell absences) significantly impacting quarterback performance and team successRunning back usage inconsistency (Derek Henry underutilization) suggesting coaching staff decision-making issuesRookie quarterbacks (Shedeur Sanders, Malik Willis) showing unexpected competence challenging veteran QB assumptionsFantasy football concentration risk with single players (McCaffrey, Kyle Pitts) determining league outcomesPlayoff seeding incentives creating misaligned team motivations in final regular season gamesDefensive pass rush effectiveness becoming primary differentiator between contenders and pretenders
Topics
NFL Playoff Seeding and Week 18 ImplicationsQuarterback Performance Evaluation in High-Pressure SituationsDefensive Pass Rush EffectivenessRunning Back Usage and Game ManagementHead Coach Decision-Making ImpactOffensive Line Injury Effects on QB PerformanceFantasy Football Strategy and Week 18 VolatilityNFC West Competitive DynamicsAFC East Division RaceRookie Quarterback Performance AnalysisTeam Tanking and Strategic RestingPlayoff Betting Model ReliabilityDefensive Depth Chart DepletionPass Interference and Penalty ConsistencyNFL Rules Interpretation Inconsistency
Companies
The Ringer
Podcast network hosting Bill Simmons' show and the Rewatchables with upcoming special episode Monday
ESPN
Broadcasting two high-stakes Week 18 games: Carolina-Tampa Bay and Seattle-LA Rams on Saturday
Netflix
Will stream Bill Simmons Podcast starting January 11th with NFL playoff coverage alongside Spotify
Spotify
Distributing Bill Simmons Podcast episodes alongside Netflix starting January 11th
Fanduel
Sports betting platform offering next drive SGPs and MVP odds discussed throughout episode
State Farm
Insurance sponsor with messaging about handling pressure like a linebacker vs line cook
LinkedIn
B2B advertising platform sponsor offering targeted professional audience reach
People
Bill Simmons
Podcast host analyzing NFL Week 17 results and making Week 18 playoff implications picks
Cousin Sal
Co-host providing gambling analysis and guessing Week 18 NFL point spreads with Simmons
Caleb Williams
Rookie QB analyzed for inconsistency despite strong arm talent and scrambling ability
Brock Purdy
49ers QB praised for composure after early pick-six and ability to move ball consistently
Josh Allen
Bills QB criticized for missing wide-open receiver on two-point conversion attempt in rain
Drake Maye
Rookie QB with 99.8 QBR praised as best performing QB and potential MVP candidate
Christian McCaffrey
Elite fantasy performer and playoff anchor for 49ers despite back injuries
Dan Campbell
Coach criticized for announcing he's calling plays, coinciding with offensive decline
Todd Bowles
Coach potentially winning second division title with 8-9 record, unprecedented achievement
Shedeur Sanders
Rookie QB showing unexpected competence and strong performance in recent games
Malik Willis
Backup QB performing well and potentially valuable reclamation candidate for offseason
Derek Henry
Elite RB underutilized in game management despite 216 yards and 4 TDs in one game
Aaron Rodgers
Jets QB criticized for poor performance and ineffectiveness against Houston defense
Sam Darnold
Seahawks QB with 26 wins in two years, showing inconsistency and turnover issues
Bryce Young
Panthers QB with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, worst performance of season
Phil Rivers
Veteran QB signed mid-season, likely retiring after three final games
Jalen Hurts
Eagles QB with two games without second-half completions despite winning both games
Matthew Stafford
Rams QB at minus-250 MVP odds despite being on potential five or six seed
Mike Tomlin
Steelers coach maintaining winning record streak despite inconsistent team performance
Quotes
"Football is the effin best. Isn't it the best?"
Bill SimmonsEarly in episode
"They don't even have to use their suitcases. They can just run it through."
Bill Simmons
"I don't want to see any part of the playoffs. I don't want to see Josh Allen."
Bill Simmons
"If you're the best quarterback in the league, you got to make the throw."
Bill Simmons
"Christmas was my last day eating bread and dessert. And really any sugar. I'm done."
Bill Simmons
Full Transcript
The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer podcast network where I have a new rewatchable is coming for you on Monday night. It is a special episode. You're probably not going to expect what it is. Parts of it will probably confuse you, might make you mad. You're not going to know where it's going. That's all I'm going to say, but it's coming on Monday night. If you like the podcast, then if you've listened to at least a few episodes over there, I'm pretty confident you'll enjoy this episode. That is coming on the rewatchables on Monday, and then we're moving into our big 2026 slate, which I was actually one of the things I was planning out over the little mini break there, trying to figure out the schedule for the first few months. Stay tuned on that one. Right up on this podcast, Cousin Salas here, as always, we taped recorded. I always say taped like it's 1990. We recorded like it was, like we usually do right after the game, except we had to wait a couple of minutes because they were trying to release where the playoff matchups were. So we have that at the top. We have all the playoff seedings, all the implications for week 18, all of our reactions to a crazy week of football week 17, which went Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, yeah, and now Monday. So the NFL, they just, they know how to do it with us. We have big action pack parent corner here as well. So it's all coming up next. We're going to take break, Pearl Jam, and then Cousin Sal and I break it down week 17. Looking forward to week 18 next. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by State Farm. Getting insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field, but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team. So don't settle for just any insurance when it comes to getting help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right. We're live Sunday night. Just watched an absolutely awesome Bears 49ers game. Cousin Sal is here. We were a little late today because there were so many week 18 implications. Sal didn't even know where we were going to be on Saturday. They gave us two awesome games for ESPN. Holy shit. Like two real high stakes games. We're surprised we've got Carolina, Tampa for the NFC South and then Seattle and the Rams for the one seed and the NFC West crown. That's Saturday and Saturday night. Now we have to tell our families, what are we going to do? I'm not telling mine. I'm just going to have to fake it. I'll go to the hospital. I'll do something. I swear. Yeah. I thought Seattle, I thought that Seattle game would go to Fox and Carolina would be Saturday night, but ESPN gets both. I kept launching to a Collins word, but football is the effin best. Isn't it the best? Today was great. Come on. Yeah. Today was great. Football is the best. Are you defending it after football got its ass kicked on Christmas? I don't think it did. Right down the chimney. The NBA holes were, were ecstatic on Sunday night or Thursday night. The next game was close. They were down by 60 most of it. Denver, Minnesota was amazing. Nobody was awake for that. Got to watch the baron jog around on defense. It was great. This, this is a bad start. All right. This is a bad start. I'm going to try to stick to my script and we'll incorporate some of this other stuff. Here are the things that are still in play with one week to go in this bizarre NFL season. We might have an eight and nine division champion. I think that's locked down, right? Carolina or Tampa or I guess if Tampa wins, they'd be an eight and nine division champ. Yeah, right. Yeah, Carolina is nine and eight if they win. Bo Nix and Sam Darnold could be our number one seed quarterbacks. Incredible. Drake, man, Caleb and Caleb Williams could be our number two seed quarterbacks after Jaden Daniels last year made the NFC title game. We could have three new coaches as top three seeds. We could have Josh Allen in the situation of having to win four games in a row in the road to win a Super Bowl. We could have a scenario where Mac Jones beats the Patriots in the Super Bowl. If Brock Purdy got hurt in the Niners and Pats play. Oh wow. We have Aaron Rodgers who I think was four yards of pass and just looked to help us today against Houston's defense, which just, if you don't like Aaron Rodgers, this is the playoff game for you potentially. Week 18, six wins total right now for New York football, which I think is the lowest ever. We're going to lose them. We're going to lose next week. We could have Bryce Young hosting a Shakies game in round one. And then most important, I think for this exercise, we could have San Francisco never leaving the Bay Area and playing in the Super Bowl, which I'm pretty sure has never happened, right? Oh, never leaving. Yeah. A couple of teams have won Super Bowl in their own stadium, right? The Rams did it a few years ago. Right. But never actually just like, like Torrico said at one point, they don't even have to use their suitcases. And it's like, oh yeah, they really don't. Right. They can just run it through. Probably media day is probably like an hour and 20 minutes away. That might be the furthest they have to travel. True. The Super Bowl being at Santa Clara, there is actually more traveling for them than maybe people would think. But the Niners, that was an awesome win for them. I don't know how they're doing it with this defense. Collinsworth said the word pass rush, I think five times today. Forget it. They know pass rush. It didn't feel like they could ever get a stop. And then they finally got a stop at the end and stopped Caleb Williams. He was laughing so much Collinsworth. I loved it. Whenever there's points, he laughs. I'm just laughing. He is cat-like. Anytime there's a touchdown, I'm slapping my knee like a maniac. And you know, Bill, even a field goal gets a chuckle, but that play to who's sick? I was losing it like I ain't had a Dave Chappelle one man show. I really, I mean, it was so much more. Do you buy Halloween stuff for the front of your house that activates when people show up? Cause I was thinking, I was thinking the Collinsworth tackling thing where you get near the door and he just starts laughing like he does 10 seconds after a play when Turico sets him up. And this is Caleb Williams. I would buy that. Anyway, we had Purdy versus Caleb on a Sunday shootout. We had the Bears in yet another down to the wire comeback. This time it fell short. But are they the, are they the TV MVPs that share the Bears? They're the most reliable, entertaining NFL team we had this year. I feel like they were. I think so. I would have said maybe my stupid team or the Bengals. I talk about them maybe playing on Super Bowl Sunday in the morning, each other. The Bears had what, eight games come down to the wire or seven or, you know. They're also good. Yeah. They're also very good. Yeah. They don't really take up. And they're fun to watch. Caleb is a roller coaster ride, but he's really fun to watch. He can scramble and buy himself 11 seconds and then miss a wide open guy in the same play. Or he can uncork that 50 yarder like he did today where it's just like it was a wrist flick. And it's a boom or that, that rifle he threw to love one. I mean, he probably has, I think Drake may has a great arm. Caleb seems like he even has like 2% like more frozen ropey than, than Drake. I would say those are the, yeah, those are the rockets right now. And he could take off, right? He knows all the angles. He's my home's ask with the angles and getting the first down just by a foot and all that stuff. And he's cutting down on mistakes. Not that he had a lot. I think that out of anyone's first thousand passes, he had the fewest interceptions out of anybody in football. So that was, Until Drake may can get to a thousand passes. That's right. Until he gets to a thousand. Yeah. But they, and the Niners are just this good man. They match him. Perti buzzing around the field, throws that pick six and he was as cool as if he was up 17 points in the fourth. Like really just, and with Trent Williams going out, like they kind of seem bulletproof. Like that might be like the toughest test they have, like something like that coming down to the wire. Yeah. It feels like whenever they want, they can go 75 yards. I had a lot of Niners stuff tonight. I had them tied to a bunch of different things, betting wise. And they threw that pick six to start the game basically. And normally that is like throwing the black cat on the TV or walking under a ladder. You're just like, Oh, here we go. I'm done. Cross this up. But I never felt that way with them because it's so easy for them to get first down. So what's weird is you look up, like I was looking at their stats in the fourth quarter and you just look at their receivers and it's, it's not like they have awesome receivers. You know, it's just random dudes and dudes that got patched together and tight ends and backup tight ends and McCaffrey. And yet somehow Perti's throwing for 300 yards and he's creating stuff with his legs. Today he was 303, three TDs, ran the ball twice for touchdowns, got like a prolonged Collins worth cackle on that little playground play that he had, but he was great. I don't know who he's throwing to. They gave him all this money to IU. He's gone Jennings. I forgot was even on the team and then made the biggest play of the game in the fourth quarter, but it's, it's a very strange team and it just seems like they moved the ball. Yeah. And it doesn't seem like I don't want to jinx them, but I guess McCaffrey would be worth one just looking through the gambling lens to the spread. But otherwise, you know, kiddo goes out, they could have scored 50 points today. Just like you said, offense, I forgot to mention him. You did kiddos almost like a bonus for them. Yeah. I don't know if the defense is making enough stops. That's the only thing we could, we could talk about, but yeah. I mean, I was on multiple Patriot threads today wondering whether we should be upset that Keon Wait, who the Patriots gave away during the season, who plays every snap for the Niners, it seems like. And it's like, well, why did we give that guy away if he's playing all the time for the Niners? And then it's like, well, they just gave up 38 points. We never saw the Bears punter. Maybe, maybe that's why they gave them up. It's a pretty, you think like Warner's out, Bose's out. They lost the first round pick. They had D-backs hurt today. They had backups to the backups that were in there. It was pretty crazy that they were even in it. Don't get us wrong. We're still cursing Robert Sal on various tech chains, but probably really isn't his fault, but they, both of those teams, very, very entertaining. Yeah. I don't really understand how they're hanging around like this. Caleb is now over 3700 yards. He's got 25 TDs and six picks this season, which are stats that. First name basis with him, which is even more important than all that stuff. Well, the other thing I noticed today, about three hours ago, he was number three in the Fandal MVP odds. Oh, really? I don't think it's the case anymore. Yeah. I think it probably dropped now. He was third. Oh, yeah. It was basically a two horse race. And then there was a, cause Josh Allen, and we'll talk about him later, but Josh Allen's campaign was torpedoed. But so you have him and then you have Luther Burton as this play of monkey wrench and Collins or at this like, I've been watching this guy. He was kind of making it seem like I knew this was going to happen on them. And it's like, this guy's available in every fantasy league right now in the finals. Like, what are you doing? He's 400 yards this year, but he looked awesome today. I, I roomed with him at Missouri and it was a little weird because I'm 40 years older, but you know, whatever we got used to it. Yeah. I watched it meet eggs, Mike. And it was just great. McAfrey, I think we talk about this every year on week 17. Who won everybody's fantasy league? Who was the guy? And I think it was McAfrey. They handed that, that award in the NFL honors or whatever it's called. It's like guy who won everyone their fantasy league. It's McAfrey. Like our league, our friend, Coheirst, the MOOC, he's about to win the league. And it was basically McAfrey. He rode McAfrey got hot at the perfect time, crested in the fantasy playoffs. And was not priced as like a $60 guy. What was it like? 45 bucks. Yeah, 45. He was like 25% off and he ended up doing it again. This is one of the greatest fantasy guys we've ever had. Right. When he took them, like, yeah, you could have, you could have McAfrey. He'll get hurt week three, whatever. Well, check it out. But yeah, we, we've been playing fantasy since early nineties. What was your first year? 92, I think. Yeah. I was, I think I was 90 or 91. McAfrey is now a first ballot fantasy hall of famer, I think. Oh yeah. I don't know if he's past Tomlinson. I still feel like Tomlinson, that six year run Tomlinson had, is just unapproachable. But McAfrey, I think is right with Marshall Falk and a couple others, like just generational, great fantasy running backs, not to mention somebody who could potentially be on the one seed and somebody who I could identify with because it looked like he was dying from a bad back as the game was going. Yeah. I thought he was going to be using like the Norma tech or something to like the giant back brace vibrator thing to help him out. The four yard screen over the middle where he just gets pounded instantly or before in most cases, I could see him say, I'm pretty like, Hey, can you cut me some slack? Can you show us who's checked there? I don't, I don't need every one of these. Yeah. Yeah. Can you not throw me the, the four yarder when you could see the linebacker running full speed about to hit me? Like, can we take that out of the thing? The backers like waving his hands is like, okay, I'm ready. Go ahead. There was also a hook and ladder in this game, which was the second one we saw today in a pivotal time on a drive that worked. And you and I both been on hook and ladder Island for a long time. Yeah. Like always wondering why teams don't do this more. It always either, always, it works or at least to get some first down at work today. But did you think the bears were going to win when they got that, when it was there in the four yard line basically, and they had one play? Yeah. I think it was, if you could have live bet it right there, who did you think was going to win? I think I did. I mean, I didn't bet it, but I would have thought bears there just cause I thought, but I thought like Caleb was going to find an opening and run in, but on that last play, he was just too scattered and run back too much. But he missed a couple, what did he miss for? I mean, I thought he was really good in that game, but he also missed four wide open guys, including they pointed out that all 22 camera. He had, who was the guy? DuVernay that he grounded it to. And it actually seemed like it could have been a touchdown. So he'll, he should go up a level at some point, but I was, I was thinking if they won that game, it was the first time I was ready to take them seriously as like, could they actually make the Super Bowl? Right. Like all these stupid wins they have, maybe this is just team of destiny shit. And maybe this is just where we're heading. Yeah. Well, we went from, you know, a few weeks ago. So it's looking like, we'll go over all this, but it looks like they'll play the Packers, right? It looks like it looks like bears Packers two, seven, unless the Lions have some sort of crazy out of nowhere win in week 18. So a month ago or five weeks ago when the Packers played them at home and beat them, we're like, yeah, that's what should happen. Yeah. Get lost bears, get out of the way. And then like, when they came back, the bears on that Saturday night and they just like that crazy touchdown at the end, the odds I kick and everything like, like, oh man, well that's stupid too, but at least they're closer. Now if they play, I'd be surprised that the Packers stayed within, within nine or 10 points, honestly. Oh, especially with all the injuries the Packers have had. I mean, they, they're like an ambulance unit at this point. Yeah. I, you know, the Eagles at halftime of that Eagles bills game, you're thinking like, this is it. Finally, somebody has arrived in the NFC to challenge one of these NFC West teams. Like, thank you. Thank you. You're late to the party, but thank you. And then the second half hurts, doesn't have a completion and they should have lost the game. And we're, we're basically back to where we were, where we had this great Eagles win and their fans feel terrible. Yeah. It's the classic Eagles gamut of emotions where they win, they pulled it out. Nobody feels good about it. Not one person. They won for a month like that, basically. Yeah. Not, you know, now they have two games where he didn't complete a pass in the second half. Then they won the game. Like just outrageous to me. I know the weather was bad, but you know, they went up against Raiders giants. And if you were to just change the uniforms and said, okay, which one of these games, which one of these teams is tanking? You're like, oh, probably the, probably the team with the quarterback who can't complete a pass. That's it. They're getting the first pick no matter what. So I don't know, I don't know how they're doing it. That defense is excellent. Much better with Jalen Carter, obviously. But man, oh man, put together something, something in the second half. It's just like a lack of desperation and creativity when they have leads. I felt like I've watched that Eagles game eight times a year where they look good for about an hour and then they kind of hold on. And then you wonder what, what, what's happening? Why are they playing? Why am I predicting every play they're running from the couch? You know, and then they barely hold on and you feel awful. But do you think as serrani is like buying into the crap or do you think he just has to be like, he's just pulling out just enough to win every week after the game is talking trash. He's going through the tunnels like I told you, no one's saying anything yet. And he actually walks right by the locker room. Like everyone's rolling their eyes at him. But does he think like this is the way to do it? Like he's going to be able to knuckle balls away to the finals? Maybe he will. I mean, they had did five straight punts in the second half. They blocked the PAT, which is the only reason the bills wouldn't have just won on that second TD. Alan kind of gacked the throw. I gotta call it for what it is. If that's any other quarterback, we're talking about how the quarterback choked. Alan's been great. I know he's banged up. There's a lot of quarterbacks banged up, but it was just a gag. The guy was wide open. They didn't really give us the all 22 of the, they gave us a side view and then another thing. So I know when the all 22 comes out tomorrow, it just feels like he just completely missed him. And I don't know whether he was going to his left. They were trying to make excuses for him. They're like, well, he was off balance. He's drifting. It's like, I don't know, man. Like this guy is supposed to be the best quarterback in the league. He kind of have to make that throw. Tariko just weird. We could all 22. We could watch now. Yeah. Yeah. It was a little bit off balance. It's a throw he makes probably 90 out of a hundred times. It was bad. It was in the rain, but yeah, definitely his fault, but getting him down there is just, it was all Josh Allen, like running sideways for nine yards, just lunging on the four. Down and scoring. I can't believe how many people thought it was the wrong move to go for two. Like I thought, like, yeah, that's a no brain. Which way were you thinking on that? Oh, 100% go for two. The game didn't, if it was week eight or if it was, they actually could win the AFCs that they win this game. Right. Maybe you're thinking different, but they didn't want it. Allen's already hurt. That's it. It's pouring rain. The field's terrible. Your playoff seed is what it is to begin with. Like why not go for it? The Eagles defense had been on the field for like, it felt like an hour straight and you should be able to get it. And by the way, the guy was wide open and they have the best quarterback in the league and he's got to hit the throw. Drake may hits that throw. I'm sorry. Eagles, oh, that's what this is. That's what you wanted to get the throw. He does. Why? It's a maybe. I think Purdy hits the throw. I could name 10 quarterbacks who hit that throw. I couldn't believe he missed it. Josh Allen hits the throw. He doesn't design it. Josh Allen hits the throw. What are you going to do? He's the best QB in the league. It was terrible. Right. I don't think people should say they couldn't, shouldn't have gone for two because he missed that. Like they just like, like you said, like small chance that we're going to win the AFC East anyway. Allen's, he is injured. Like his, that foot's a real injury. They want to probably sit him next week. They definitely don't want him to play an overtime. By the way, your kicker, just shanked your kicker, your bills kicker wearing number 32 in honor of OJ. Weird enough, slices it. I love that. And that's it. What the hell? I love this. Pay no much to. That's a costume party. If that's a playoff game, you kick the PAT, you take it to overtime. Fine. And, and you trust that your defense has stopped them for an hour and a half and your offense has been moving the ball and you're at home and you're going to win the game. But week 18, when you're going to be, what are they, the six or the, they're going to not be in the six seed, I think is how it's going to shake out. How do they get the six though? They're seven now. How would they get that? Because the chargers would have to beat Denver to keep the, keep the six seed. Oh, they do. Yeah. They both lose chargers and bills. The bills, the bills, the win next week and the chargers lose. The bills are the 60 and the chargers are the seven seed. But if the bill said everyone, I know it's against. But why would they do that though? I don't know if I'm the bill, because the quarterback's injured and everything. Do you think they, if they're playing the jets, there's going to be like two touchdown favorites. You got to at least try to win that game for a half. We'll talk about that. But you, you think they want to definitely go to Jacksonville versus go to the wing. Well, let me ask you, the Pats are getting milk Williams back and they're getting will Campbell back. They're 13 and three. They have May who's playing the best of anyone in the league right now. Why would they want to play the Patriots over the Jaguars? Well, because I think Josh Allen, I would want to play the Jaguars a hundred times out of a hundred. Allen probably just heard you say, Drake may makes that throw and now he's angry. Now he wants to go to the Foxboro. I mean, he was hurt. It's pouring rain. I get it. But if you're the best quarterback in the league, you got to make the throw. That was my home's two years ago and he missed that throw. We'd be like, I can't believe my home's missed that throw. I know. More times than not though, when these teams have a choice between a seven or a six seed, they don't, they'll, they'll err on the side of rest. But they're playing the jets don't want to, I watched the jets for three hours today. Yeah. I know. Yeah. They want no part of even being with it. They've lost, I think they're the first team since 1967. Since they've kept track of this where there've been four December games. They're the first team who's lost all four December games by 23 points or more. They're going to beat the bills next week. There's no way. All right. So you're taking bills when chargers lose to everybody and that's, that's the six. Well, here's, these are the Pat's threads I'm on where we talk about why we don't still have Key on weight and also how either way it's great for us because if Denver beats the chargers, fine. Denver's the one seed. Pat's are two seed. Pat's then play the chargers who don't have either other tackles who have Herbert, who has this giant cast on his arm and who really did not look good on Saturday. Or if the chargers beat Denver, the Pat's are the one seed. If they beat Miami. So either way, that's great for the Pat's. The thing that would suck is if they Miami somehow beat them with Quinn, you are in switch. Oh, you're looking too far ahead with these charges. Well, that's the thing. I don't, I already don't like that. It's going to be a late afternoon game. I don't like the late afternoon Sunday East Coast games. I think weird shit happens. It's like getting dark. It's freezing cold. The fans are dead. I don't like those games. Makes me nervous. I was looking because they have Fando has stage of elimination. I saw that. And the chargers, you and I, when we did the futures in August, I took chargers first round, they lose. You could bet it in August. And right now it's minus 155. I think that's a good bet. Yeah. So that's either them going to Jacksonville, who house them five weeks ago or the Pat's. I mean, Herbert, I thought Herbert was awesome in that Houston game. They certainly didn't lose because of him. No, but they just don't have enough. You know, I mean, the Shakies game can't believe they might not get the chargers. They're like, what are we doing? We've, you've checked all of our boxes. You can't block your games. The Shakies is meeting with Goodell to see if they get the chargers. We just want to get them in there. Stafford minus 250 for MVP. Is that changed? It's 250. Yeah. Drake is plus 200. Everybody else is gone. Right. That's it. That's it. So the Rams, the Rams are probably going to be a five or a six seed. I'm not even sure they're going to care about tomorrow night now, which if you have the Rams and Parleys tomorrow, it's like, uh-oh. Now what happened? Yeah. I don't know why Stafford's favorite. I don't really understand that. So you're saying because I know Patriots fans are all caught up in this, how could a five seed quarterback on a five seed? Yeah. I thought we established like it's the one or the two seed usually presents the MVP plus Drake has gotten better the whole season. I mean, I don't really care. I don't have money on it, but I want to, um, I want to congratulate Josh Allen and the bills for five straight AFC titles, which the streak ended today, but five straights a good number. Good job by you. That was one less than Tom Brady's second longest streak of six. There you go. He had 11 and he had six. And then the bills who were supposed to own the division like Tom Brady and the Pat Stead for the next 20 years. I think they are the only team to win a division five years in a row and not make the, not make or not win the Super Bowl. I thought it was not make the Super Bowl. Was it not make? Okay. You're all over it. I'm, that's the team. I don't want to see any part of the playoffs. I don't want to see Josh Allen. I was talking to my dad about it today and we were just going through all the teams and we're like, yeah, yeah. And then it gets to the bills. I was like, yeah, don't want to see them. I don't want to go against Josh Allen for three hours, even though, you know, whatever happened and they happened, that's still the guy. Are you insulted though that they have the same odds as a Patriots to win the Super Bowl 10 to one? I think it's fair because the Pats haven't done anything and we've, we've been down this road with them and the Bears and these teams like this that once it gets to January, I think it folks a little bit. Pats have stayed healthy. Today was a don't get hurt game in this, uh, Jets game. Drake had a 99.8 QBR, which was the highest since they started recording QBR. The Jets were awful. I mean, it was combo of Drake and the Pats were good, but the Jets were really awful. And then they had, they kind of had a rough in the passer. It was 28-3. Did you see this? Yeah, I did. Yep. And Vrabel got pissed and the Pats went into FU mood and drove down and scored. And then they called the timeout with 11 seconds left. It felt like the Pats were back out. It was 35-3. Yeah. Vrabel calls the timeout. I mean, I guess he figures one of the Jets going to make me pay for this in the year 2052. Like, what's the downside? But actually the downside is you could be a likable team now that you're good again, but you're choosing not to. So that's fine. Listen, today might have been the peak of the year for us. Like the chance to maybe get a one seed, we win the AFC, Josh Allen doesn't win. This might be as good as it gets, but 13-3 is pretty impressive. And then you get the thing that was being forwarded around today about how they beat one team with a winning record. Yeah. That's not true. And then I looked at it and I was like, ah, that is true. Yeah, we had one win against a team with a winning record. They just amow us some of these teams though. I looked up, it was 22-3 in first downs. I was like, oh, yes. Why are you even getting out for the bus? This is just sickening. And the fact that they have no interceptions still through 17 games, like as a quarterback, you're just foaming at the mouth. You're just, you have a free, as free a game as you want. Well, I've had the New York football stuff that's in play right now other than the four December games by 23 plus points, all losses, which Jets made history there. They were down 35 to three and a half time to a coach that they passed up on hiring two straight years. Yeah. They could have fired Sal at two years ago and hired him. Right. For able, they didn't. Last year, kind of like tepidly went after him and, you know, and he was kind of using them as leverage with the Pats. And then you have the Giants Raiders where we have this last 72 hours was hilarious with the injuries, scratches. Giants Raiders going for the one seed. And we, you have a bunch of giant fans in your life. Yeah. And it was like, oh, this is how it's going to play out. The Giants are going to be dumb enough to win this game convincingly. I actually ended up putting them in a parlay because I was like, they're definitely stupid enough to win this. The Giants. Yeah. I finally ended up today, I ended up putting them in the parlay, but they love doing this. They, the Raiders now have an 80% chance of the first pick. Max Crosby is playing basketball and jumping on a trampoline in their videos. And what a mess. Just a mess all the way around. Well, you know how I hate this tanking stuff, right? I feel like December tanking should be reserved for the NBA and the NBA only. But, and I just, I had my fun with it for sure on the pregame show, but, and the NFL really took a chance by isolating this game. Yeah. Like they really like, it was that kind of nudge one more early game to lay. They should have sent this to Australia. This should have been played at 330 in the morning and nobody should have seen it because, it's not like anyone's pumping on first down or purposely doing whatever. Ash and Genthe played the whole game. I know everyone made a big deal out of the Max Crosby thing. He hit an off balance three. He didn't look that good making that three-pointer. Like I think if you, if you film our wives shooting at off balance threes for a half hour, they're going to make one point. And I just don't like the, I don't know. I just, I think it's an arrogant stance by the front office of any team that's supposed to be tanking. Like, oh, we're not good at hiring coaches. We're not good at signing free agents, but get us our draft pick because that's where we're going to turn it around. It's like, no, you're not. Cut it out. Just play the game. Play the one. I was texting with McShade today and it sounds like if the Oregon QB comes out, like if you look at Fando Mendoza, who's like supposed to be the number one pick, he's only minus 180 to be the first pick. Right. Don't they Morris? Morris plus 250. I think because they don't know if he's coming out yet or not, but it might be a two, so it might have worked out for the giants anyway. So the jets are in trouble. Yeah. The jets are the ones that could be in trouble. But Gino threw his 17th pick today. If you thought they were tanking, you didn't see Gino the rest of the year because he was on brand. He didn't do anything differently. I didn't see the box score. Did you mean 17th pick today or 17 picks today? Today he threw a 17 picks and 29 drop picks. She's where it landed. The build summits podcast is brought to you by Fando Fando changing the way that you bet live. They call it live bet. Bet live, whatever you want to call it. They're changing the way you live bet football. 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LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers. And that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You could target your buyers by job title industry, company role, seniority skills, company revenue. So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. That's why LinkedIn ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them spend $250 in your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com slash Simmons bill terms and conditions apply. Jags Coles. Two more red zone turnovers for the Jags in this game. Yeah. Old Man Phil River is going first, first run. All these shots of his family celebrating in the luxury box, they're taking early lead and it's like, here we go. Same old Jags. I know where this is going and they won. They pulled it off. They staved off, they staved off old man Phil. They finally got him through a pick. He was having the old guy look. He like, it was like dropping picks and stuff. And then finally they got a turnover off him. But did it change how you felt about the Jags at all? Yeah, it did. I felt the same way about Lawrence as I did with Purdy throwing that early interception. We've seen them not bounce back. Like you felt like it wasn't going to sink them. Yeah, exactly. Well, I was surprised when it didn't. I was like, wow, we've seen this just put them behind the eight ball and then they just couldn't come back from it. But we have a thing where we text the quarterback's name and then an exclamation point after any interception. There's like 70 of those throughout the day. But when that happened, I was like, I'm live betting. I'm live betting Jacksonville here. I just move in the ball too well. Otherwise the doing good rivers. I know he owes us one. And also you can ask for a lot more than him, right? Like I think over three games, just four touchdowns, three interceptions, like about 550 yards. That's what you're going to get out of a guy you signed. Good last Monday. And it was good in the ball. He wasn't the reason they lost to San Francisco. He didn't really cost them. So Riley Leonard cost them one pass and an interception. No, then the Hail Mary. No, that's a game the Jags have lost a hundred times in four years. So I felt the same way. It was the first time I've watched the Jags where they had adversity early and a couple of dumb things happen. And I didn't feel like, oh, cross them off. I also did not put them in anything today other than a 13 point T's that I sent you guys in the pregame show. But I didn't trust them at all. I didn't know what they were capable of. On the one hand, they kind of went for it this year in a bunch of different, like they have a lot of first round picks. They had a lot of high picks over the last couple of years. They traded for Jacobi Myers during the season. They went all in on that Travis Hunter trade and traded all these future assets. So it was a little like Atlanta where they were really trying to be good in 2025. On the other hand, a lot of it worked. You know, like when you look like Myers is over and over again, 39, 37, that's, it just seems like that's become the guy. They got ETN going again. And I think they're a mildly frisky playoff team. Like they're probably going to be, it's a chance they're going to be a home underdog if it's Buffalo, if it's a three six, right? I wouldn't be, wouldn't be opposed to taking them as a home dog in a playoff game. Would you? Me too. I think like, and I was, I'm pretty brave about this right now, but maybe in a couple of weeks I won't be, but I don't think the bills have four in a row in them. So I don't know if it's the first one, if it's against Jacksonville or not. Yeah. They get stops. They do all the right things. They do all the teams. I just can't believe, is this Indianapolis year, the strangest of any other? Like their coach dies. They have Daniel Jones, they're seven to one, then they're eight and two, and then Jones goes out and they just free fall to the bottom and they sign filled. They haven't won since, right? Sauce Gardner. Oh my God. They trade all these assets for Sauce Gardner. So their future is kind of screwed here. And not only it's the AMC South. Not only don't they make it at eight and two, but two other AMC South teams make it in the playoffs. Like they're not one of them. What a bizarre ass year. That first round pick they gave up for Sauce Gardner, which feels like it was 10 years ago. Oh yeah. And it's like, oh yeah. Well, they're going to be a one or a two seed. So that pick will be bottom of the first round. Now it's going to be like 16. Right in the middle. So it's a great trade for the jets. What do they care? I actually wrote down in my notes, is there an MVP case for Daniel Jones, even though they only played half the year. That's interesting. Like gets hurt. They never win again. Maybe he was the MVP. That should be an NFL honors. The award for, I didn't realize how important you were until something bad happened or whatever that's called. It's so funny because I had in my notes, that's why I would pick Ben Johnson for coach of the year because he gets the double, the double FU. We saw it with Detroit. Can't get a first down for some reason and all what he's doing with the Bears. The worst to first deal. Unbelievable turn of events for the Colts and the Bucks. And I was trying to think like, is this unusual or what? And it's just the season's so fucking long. We talked about this last week. The season's just too long. It takes forever. Guys get injured. These big injuries, you've, a cluster of injuries, you've just, your season flips. Dolphins Bucks, where, I don't know if you saw this, but the Tampa players, they had a press conference about an hour ago. They announced they've run out of ways to quit on Ted Bulls. Oh well. Yeah. They said, we've tried everything. We've lost seven of eight. We've tried to lose games at the end. We've tried to get killed during games. We've tried to see them unprepared. We've tried to have games where we have 12 penalties. We don't know what else to do other than not show up for the next game. We've exhausted our options. Not only are they trying, the other teams are trying too. We're going to give you Quinn Ewers on a platter. We're going to give you the 17 point lead, everything else, but I don't get it at all. When I have this team, the winning division, I stupidly took them. You might still win it. Make it, I guess. I just, them and the Lions, like how I look up and I see that they'll have 10 points in the fourth quarter. I'm like, how does this happen? How did these, who was calling these plays here? This is outrageous. And I don't want to hear about Tristan Werves. I get it, but you know, I watched every single play. He had time to throw the ball, right? He had time to throw the ball downfield. He actually had that one scramble where he really should have been, like he should have been flattened in the pocket and he rolled left and he got a first down. And then he followed it with like the worst interception you'll see if you live to be 150 years old. He is eight picks in the last seven games. I was thinking that, well, two things, two awards for him. I think he took the season lead for hospital balls today. I think his receivers are now terrified when they're over the middle because his balls, you have no idea where they're going. But the Baker Mayfield award for the guy who looked like an MVP for five weeks and then completely died by the end of the year. You wonder if he was going to be on the team next year, which I think started with Russell Wilson that one year when, remember Russell Wilson had that awesome September where like, he's never won the MVP. How crazy is that? Is this going to be the end by the end of the year? It was like, he might be out of the, out of Seattle, but Baker became that guy this year. You know, the gamut of emotions. When the Browns are like, yeah, man, we did the right thing. Okay. That's what we might have done the right thing with the Baker. They might have felt that way until Sanders threw that pick. He threw the Lobhail Mary interception. That's true. Then they're like, nah, maybe we did do the right thing. I think he has a different form of a hospital ball. Like he throws it to the sideline. Like he'll throw overthrow Mike Evans by the sideline, but Evans has to die for it out of bounds and stuff. He could get hurt. He'll run into like eight guys with jackets on and stuff. Sometimes it's his own guys, but like he gets up. That's not a hospital ball. That's like a, it's like a collision ball. Yeah, right. Yeah. Who's the guy that, what's that all state? The guy from Oz who's always banged up on all. Oh, uh, uh, right on Mayhem, right? Yeah, whatever. But he was right on Riley and us. Oh, I see. Yeah. He throws the all state balls. Right. It's like collision insurance. He gets the all state award. It's like nobody's safe. Cameraman, assistant coaches. He should do a commercial for sure. So this is my favorite stat. I did a lot of research during the late games because there were only two games to watch and one of them was the complete abomination. So during the commercials, bowls, Todd bowls, this might be his second division title where the team went eight and nine. That's like, call of fame, candidacy material. Like nobody has ever doing that again. Like how many, how many losing record division champs have we ever had? He's going to do it twice. Mike Tomlin's like, get off my back. You see what's going on in Tampa. Right. He's like, at least I go nine and eight. I was thinking they could win the title go eight and nine, but they'll still, they'd already planned on firing him after week 18. They might just do it anyway. Just bring in whoever, bring in Bruce Aarons to coach it. One last thing on that game. First of all, I don't feel like that's an easy Pat Stoffins game next week, even though we haven't guessed the line yet. I don't know what it is, but I think the offense have been reasonably frisky 80% of the time for two months here. They just came out two weeks off of that Pittsburgh game was an abomination on Monday. Right. They played last week Cincinnati, who was left for dead. Then they, I don't know. But they look pretty well. I mean, of course they look fine today. I know they look fine today. Well, Tampa is still alive because the Panthers couldn't beat the Seahawks. And I was texting with Danny Kelly and Mina Kimes about this two Seahawks fans asking them if the Seahawks have finally beaten out any confidence they had in January. Is there any, is there a small piece left? And it's, I think it's gone. I don't think you can watch this team for three hours a week and think they're going to win a couple straight playoff games and make the Super Bowl. After today, you thought that would be Carolina? No, but just when you watch them for three hours, it's like, this is all cute. Right. There's just no way they're actually going to make the Super Bowl with this team. Darnell has 20 turnovers, which leads the NFL. Seattle has 28 turnovers, which is the second highest. And they, here's another staff for you. They've only gone for it on 13% of the first downs this year, which is the worst in the NFL. So the coach doesn't trust the offense. The offense still turns the ball over all the time. It just feels like it's ready for a January playoff tsunami for them. So you trust them least out of the three NFC West teams? I think out of all the good teams, I trust them the least. I just don't trust our offense. Their offense hasn't been good for two months. I don't see how it's going to change. Just take out JSN as much as you can. What else are they going to do? I guess. Like screen pass to Kenneth Walker. What else is left? And sometimes that works like all game, all three hours. And sometimes you don't see it at all, but I don't know what to do with this. Like I feel like I have to step aside. Sam Darnell, that's 26 wins in two years. 26 wins. Well, their defense won the game today. Bryce Young. Yeah. Had 54 yards passing total, which is the same number as times Panthers fans have switched their opinion on him. I think they're now glass half empty on Bryce. But like a week ago, it's like, we might have a guy. It's almost like it needs 10. But what would you do if you're a Panthers fan? Would you want him back next year? He threw 24 times. You could have 54 passing yards on like six or seven attempts, but not on 24. Yeah. What was that? You mailed me that stat. Who was the guy, the last guy who did it? David Woodley. David Woodley. David Woodley in 1980. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, David Woodley. I'm sorry. We don't bring you up that much, but that's sad. Sadly, I'm old enough to remember David Woodley and he was not good. Hey, if I can get Malik Willis, I would do that over Bryce Young, I think. I mean, he's going to get paid now. Malik Willis, isn't he? Would you take Mack Jones over Bryce Young? I don't know. Because I think I would. I don't know. It's close. I just don't think this team should be anywhere near where they are anyway. We just can't escape the crumminess of the NFC South. And the funniest thing is the best QB in the conference now, or the division now is Shuck. No doubt. That's not even close, is it? It's just, I mean, he was 22 for, he gets the Titans, but he was 22 for 27 for 333 and two TDs, name anyone he played with today. Like, who was that? It's team. It was unbelievable. If you actually look, a lot, a lot of it has like nine touchdowns. That surprised me. I looked at his numbers and everything. Yeah. Alaviz has been his one guy, but they had, he had Veilay, who I had on my, my fantasy team for a week. He's out for the year, but they, they lost Kamara. They've lost all these guys. Shuck is now plus 120 for offensive rookie of the year on Finder. I saw that. I don't, why is he behind Ted McMillan? Like, I know you shouldn't get too excited about a win over the Titans, but this guy's solid. And he's not going to really lose your games like this. And like you said, he's by, I know I'm being facetious. I think he's better than solid. I honestly think he's better than solid. I think he's legitimately pretty good. Well, he has more 300 yard passing games than Drake. Maybe. So maybe. And he's tough. We talked about him last week. I was texting with McShay about it because McShay was all in on him from the senior bowl. And what a name dropper you are. McShay and Nina, Danny, Kelly. I have more. I have more coming. David Woodley. But McShay, McShay was, was wondering like these older QBs. Maybe this is like an inefficiency now in the NFL. These guys who have just lived some life instead of just bringing these, maybe think of like that Oregon QB who's going to be like 21 next year. Like maybe, maybe that's not a good idea to bring in like the baby. No, I know. I mean, you want this old guy is bounced around. We've seen both, right? We saw like bow nicks, a million starts and a lot of these guys are going to have like 60 starts per day. So we've seen it go both ways, but I might rather have an older one, except that when you sign them that contract, then you have a big decision to make when he's like 29 years old, first time. Right. So the Seahawks win next week. They're playing the Rams. I'm sorry, they're playing the Fortinetteers. Which number one seed would you feel worst about Denver or Seattle? We're from the opposing team. Just you in general, from a gambling standpoint, football fans standpoint. Oh, backing them. Yeah. Just everything. Like which one, which one makes you queesier out of those two? So you're going to say Seattle, but I think Denver. I would say Denver. Yeah. Because at least Seattle's defense, we've seen them really turn it up. Whereas Denver's defense, I'm not even sure where we totally are with it at this point. Denver, they beat the Jets by two. They beat the Giants by one. They beat Davis Mills by three. They beat the Raiders by three. And then they beat him by seven. That was, you know, that was a weird one. The KC game was alarming. Like KC almost beat them. Chris Ola Doken by seven. The fuck was that? Kelsey's like wide open. I mean, he's the only receiver they had. Yeah. Yeah. Like we've seen them do open up their offense and play great, but that's half their schedule. I just read to you. Well, I was thinking, I was looking back at the 2008 season, because I was trying to think of the last crazy. I've mentioned this before, but the last really, truly crazy season. And that was the year when Pittsburgh played Arizona in the Super Bowl, but I was looking at the first round where, so things that happened that year, Arizona was a nine and seven champion that then made the Super Bowl and just kept upsetting people. The Chargers were an eight and eight division champ. They of course won in round one. But if you look back at round one, I think all of them were upsets. The Chargers beat the Colts, the Eagles beat the Vikings, the Ravens beat the Dolphins. Each one, it felt like, I think the underdog maybe won outright three of the four and it just kind of kept going and was just one of those stupid years and ended up with a Pittsburgh, Arizona, which I think was the birth of the Gary Russell prop. Oh, beautiful. But looking at that first round made me wonder if that's what we're headed for this year with even more games, where we're going to have six games round one, or we're just going to have like five upsets. I just, and I texted you, I texted Bill Simmons, I'll drop a name, like an hour ago. I was like, man, this is, we are going to have, it's going to be impossible to make money in the playoffs because who do you trust? You're, I think your overall point is Denver and Seattle. You're not getting that trust factor because you're not getting that go-to quarterback, the one that's been there for so many years, but I guess we're just going to do it. Well, we always look at it like, yeah, who couldn't we put as the anchor of a T's or Parley, who's like a minus 250, minus 300, seven point favorite, seven out point favorite. I don't have the team. I don't, like, I don't trust the Niners from what we saw today. Their defense can't stop anybody. They're going to, like, they're going to have to outscore somebody, which is what they did today for two hours, but then they finally had to punt and it felt like they were going to lose the game, not to mention if you have one turnover. So a couple more games quickly, Brown Steelers, which we thought the league, this was the one you rig, if you're going to rig a game, not that the league's fixed, but if it was, sure, this would be the game you fix where the Browns win. Now there was no DK Metcalf. That was the case for Brown's moneyline. Who had that on the pregame show? Somebody who has that Brown's moneyline, right? We've had, a few of us had plus three and a half or plus three. Yeah. I thought Browns without Metcalf. Rogers was helpless. 39 attempts for 168. It looked like the classic Bullshit Steelers game that they're going to somehow win. And they didn't win. They lost. Deep exhale from Roger Godel as Rogers sailed that fourth down pass out of the end zone. He got his Sunday night matchup for 18, but yeah, man, I don't want to, I'll give Miles Garrett credit. It really seemed right. Like, yeah, they were just too worried about stopping me. They weren't worried about like winning the game. Like they really didn't plan. They were moving him around and he was a pain and Rogers didn't throw downfield until like late in the game when they played Prevent, which was driving us crazy. You got like two or three first downs in a row, but it is the same old Pittsburgh team. Like they're either going to go nine and eight or they're going to be a first round casualty. So that'll be that. I wonder like in classic Pittsburgh fashion, will Metcalf somehow get exonerated because there was a story today about how when he played for Seattle, the same fan messed with him. Will they review it and be like, no, actually we can't spend you, so spend you for week 18. And then all of a sudden he's back there playing Baltimore. Sanders had a couple of good throws, had one of the worst picks I've ever seen in my life. They did not score 14 points. There was a stat that they lead the league in the 2020s. They have six wins where they didn't score 14 points. So congrats to the Browns fans. You guys did it. The Steelers looked awful though. And I've learned not to bet honor against them in these games. They're just a complete stay win. I know. What are we going to do next Sunday though? Two of these more games. I guess we're going to have to bet on that. Yeah. You know, when Deion is hiding behind his cowboy hat, things are bad. You can't spend it anymore. That was tough. Saturday football, we had the Derek Henry fuck you game, 216 and 14 days. We had a ridiculous Texans win over the Chargers that I still can't believe I lost. Kicker, Dicker, Mr. P.A.T. in a field goal. Gass didn't drop to what's just sent an interception up in the air. Herbert was amazing. The Texans had two long passes and then did nothing else the entire game. They've somehow won eight straight. I don't know what to make of them. It was a weird day at football. Which game did you take more out of? I mean, that Ravens Packers game I would have thought under. I would have thought there wasn't going to be that much offense, at least from Baltimore. And I don't know. I look at it, I'm like, hardball kind of blew it for this team. If they don't come away with a win Sunday night against the Steelers, so many times you had a healthy Derek Henry available to close out a game and just forgot about him. What, he had 216 and four touchdowns. He has almost 1500 yards and 16 touchdowns. And what do you have? 18 carries against you guys and 10 against Cincinnati. Like, give this guy- Didn't play against us in the last seven minutes. Why? Like, give us, does he just forget? Like, set an alarm. The game starts at one, set your alarm for 315, and then your iPhone goes, it has all kinds of like audio sounds like radio and canopy and chirp and story. Just get the alarm you want and put him in. Like, it's insane to me that this was- A hired Derek Henry advisor. Yeah. That was very weird. I tell you what, I don't mind Huntley in the playoffs if it comes to this. I don't, somebody will make this a story Tuesday, Wednesday. Would you rather have a healthy Huntley or a bad enough Lamar? But I don't mind him. I don't think he's not awful. We'll see. Well, would you rather have a healthy Huntley or a banged up Lamar? Oh, shit. I don't know you're going to ask me that. Like, if Lamar can't really move around like he normally does, and he's hampered and he just doesn't seem right, it's at least a discussion. I know they'll go with Lamar because he's been in the big games, but I love the rain. If he can't move like Huntley, if he can't move like Huntley did yesterday, and the other team knows about that, then yeah, it's only. I love the Ravens on Saturday night, had multiple real life bets on them. And somehow in ringer 107 lost our Ravens bet because we moved it to four and a half, did the under of like 55. And of course, what were the odds that game was going to have over 50 points, much less 60. It's 65 point game. Willis and Huntley always a partner. Yeah. Willis is, that's worth the gamble, I think in the off season. Like that could be the reclamation guy this year, right? We were talking about on the pregame show and Matt Flynn got his bag, as you'll say. That's the worst version of this. But at least have like 25 good quarterbacks back then. Right. Like, yeah, it was a stretch, but there were good quarterback. Malik Willis is a no brainer at this point. Like he could start for probably 16. Mitchell and Matt Flynn, those were the two famous ones. Mitchell, right? Scott Mitchell was a classic. And then the Christmas was awful. Did you have fun at least with the Cowboys Washington? Oh, that's great. That's it, man. I keep, you know, we did our Netflix thing and then we watched Josh Johnson looked like a playoff quarterback, but yeah, that was fine. Cowboys win. Brosmar versus Goff was amazing, especially a few of the Vikings. And then Broncos KC was a bismar. I have my parent corner is going to be about that actually. I have one last thing for you. Oh, I was going to say the Detroit thing. Like just put another nail on Dan Campbell's coffin. Like, I think since he announced he's calling the plays, that offense has been a complete curiosity. Like he's, I think that's the worst proclamation of 2025. Him saying, Hey, look at me. I'm calling the plays. It just all went, yeah, I've got this. Like, dad's driving now. Give me the steering wheel. I've got it. Kids, get out of the way. I think I wrote down top four worst proclamations of 2025. It's Dan Campbell announcing that he's calling the plays. It's Pam Bondi saying the files are on my desk. It's me announcing my nickname for the Pats QB or Drake, maybe Drake, maybe. Yeah. Follows me everywhere. Or you announcing your addiction to hot water with lemon. So I think we should put that to a poll. Those four, you have it. Look at you. I got a new thing actually. What is it? What's here? Well, I did something you're not going to like. What is this? The wind would tell you. Is this in the top four? Is this a new entry in the top four? What's here? You're not going to be happy at all. Christmas was my last day eating bread and dessert. And really any sugar. I'll stop it. Yeah. I'm done. I'm done. And guess what? I feel great. I think I've been really good on the podcast so far. You can feel the difference. But someone give you a skirt for Christmas? Like what? No sugar in the morning on my coffee. Just coffee and half and half. No dessert. I'm just done. I realized sugar was just like bad for me as we get older. And I'm just going to try life without sugar for a while. All right. Of course you're right. But don't do it. So the only thing I've allowed myself is hot water with a little honey in it. Just a little so I can taste it. And that's it. That's what's keeping me alive right now because I can't have dessert or pizza. No pasta anymore. I'm giving up a lot of stuff. No pasta. But you saw me do this in the 2010s. You saw me do this for like four years. I was pretty committed. You're always the same way. Yeah, Bianco's out. Chris Bianco's gone. He's out of my life. That's terrible. That's terrible. Out of my life. Turns out he didn't really knew. Congratulations, Dan Campbell. You're bounced from the top four worst proclamations. I figured you would hate this. I figured you would hate this too of them now. I made a list to celebrate the end of 2025 my list of things during the typical NFL weekend that I've given up figuring out. I have seven things. Driving the QB into the ground on a sack, being either a penalty or not a penalty, depending on how the line's been feeling on this specific play. I've just given up. Sometimes it's like if you wrap your arms around but it's for 1-1-1-1 of a second too long or you push, you have to tackle them but you can't tackle them too hard. You have to pull your arms as he's landing. You have to pull your arms back. But even then, it might be rough in the past or anyway. I'm just giving up. I think that's fat-shaming. I think anyone who is bigger than the quarterback, if you weigh four more pounds than the quarterback, you can't drive into them and complete a tackle. I don't like that. That's fair. No pizza, no bread. Taunting penalties. Just there's no Ramariz in them anymore. I watched. There was one in the Browns game today that was awful. There was other ones where the guy stands over or receiver and that nothing happens. They just, that's arbitrary. When you can take your helmet off on the field, has now we've gotten really flimsy with this? You see this a lot now as the guys are walking off. They just take the helmet. This used to be like dating back to Dwayne Rudd. This was like you can't take your helmet off to get to the sideline. Now it feels like maybe you can take your helmet off. I don't know what to think anymore. They don't call it. When was the last time you've seen them call that? Yeah, you're right. They haven't called it. They're not consistent. Caleb does it a lot. Caleb does it as like he's not even on the sideline yet and it's off. Good, good. They should have flanked him. Yeah, I know if you get it ripped off, you could basically, you get a free like, you could do a chorus line on the field. Right. Put your helmet off. Yeah, you can do whatever you want. You can take, do a podcast. Yeah. Four more. This was really important yesterday in the Chargers Texans game. And it goes both ways. These pass interference bump clutches after five yards, like six, seven yards. And the guys are tangled up. And then sometimes it's offensive pass interference because the guy pushed off. Other times the guy held too long. And it's just game to game. You have no idea what, how to interpret it. And for some reason it decides games left and right. And they've never decided on an explanation. And whoever the rules analysts is, is they take the side of the referee in that case. Every time. Can't do that. Yeah. It's like you're getting scolded by the principal. Like, don't do it. Just don't. You can't push off and break away. Yeah. And then offensive pass interference is the other one where we've seen, especially near the sideline now, they're calling the little shove offs. The pick. When the guy's going for it, but they're not calling the opposite. When the guy's getting shoved, then it feels like they've bent it against the receiver. Second to last one, tackles, the left and right tackles, being able to jump backwards for the snap. We just don't call that anymore. I don't know why. I don't know. It's a, it's, it's a false start every time. Then you're allowed to do false starts. And then last but not least, obviously, is continuation catches on TDs. Which one was that this week? On touchdowns. Which one was that this week? It wasn't this week, but just, it'll happen five times a year and we've never landed on what's fair, not fair. Oh yeah. Yeah. You have to do the Lambeau leap and still have it in your possession for it to count. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Flip it to the cheerleader. It's like, no, flip it too soon. Didn't count. Not a catch. I don't know. Any more? Is there any, any other ones you can figure out? No, I mean, listen, I just like, my thing always is trying to draw the guy offside. This is not a rules thing, but trying to draw the team offside from the shotgun in a loud venue. Like you're never going to do it. No one, I appreciate when you try to draw a team offside and then punt it, but don't do it from the shotgun. I don't understand. Don't you want, if I'm screaming at you from six inches away, you're going to be more startled than if I'm seven yards away, right? And everybody else is drowning me out. So that's, that's my big pet peeve. Well, the new one people are trying, the new one people are trying is in the shotgun. They do this really fast, hoping somebody's going to jump. And it's, everyone knows that. I can see that. I just don't, if I hear something, I might jump, right? Like, but if I see that, and we also laugh at the guys trying to down the punts now, like nine times out of 10. Everyone, everyone should just run off the field. If you're trying to down a punt inside the five, because you're ultimately going to kick it into the end zone. Or have, we always text about that with our friend, Hench, because it's his favorite play in sports when the punts about to land at the one and the punter guy steps on the goal line or fucks it up or goes to throw it back and ends up throwing it forward. And the one today was epic though, because the guy saved it on the Eagles. Was it the Eagles? It was the Eagles. The next guy comes in to make sure the ball doesn't go to the goal line, but steps on the goal line. If I was the punter, I'd be so mad. But this is where we need to help. Hench has a special teams coordinator. Just be like, there's Eagle special teams coordinator Kevin Hatch, and he's just like, why? He's left the building. He's the Zamboni machine ran him over. He just stabbed the trader. Yeah. Any time you, me, or Hench can make a better play on something like that, it's not good. The one I almost added, but I do think the refs have a handle on it, but it always takes them an extra 15 seconds. I have no idea why is intentional grounding when the QB throws it away. And it's clearly intentional grounding, but they don't call it. And then 15 seconds pass and the refs kind of look at each other, and then they huddle up. Right. And they're like, yeah, that probably was intentional grounding. And then they throw it. I don't know why we need 15 seconds to wait on that. I think hopefully in the next couple of years, replay assist will be broadened and we could immediately let that take care of a lot of these things. So we don't have to worry about it. Need anything from Tesco? Like Nescafe Azir and 90 grams instant coffee for just three pounds 50 this Easter with your Tesco club card, because every little helps. Majority of larger stores, Azir and 90 grams ends 14th of April. Club card or app required. Playoff matchups right now would be Denver with the one seed, Pat's Buffalo. But as we discussed, that's not, it's going to end up either Pat's Chargers or Pat's with the one seed. Jacksonville Chargers, which we've already seen, which might end up morphing into Jacksonville Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston. So let's say, let's be smart and we'll say Denver Chargers, Pat's Buffalo, Jags, Pittsburgh, Houston, and then in the Pittsburgh Baltimore. Pittsburgh or Baltimore gets Houston. Yeah. Then Seattle in the NFC, Bears Packers, Eagles Rams, Panthers, Niners. So I just gave you six matchups. Panthers, Shaky's game to lose right now, like minus 200. What is it? Yeah, I think so. That's pretty good. So you think they'd put the Niners in the, in the Shaky's game early start Saturday? You don't think they'll go AFC South for one of these? Like could, could Jags Chargers make it? Could be Jags Chargers. I think that's the other one. Could be one of those. If it's Jags Buffalo, they're not putting Josh in the first playoff game. Right. Right. Because that's like, he's the most famous QB left at this point. If we're getting Rams Eagles in that first round, that's, I mean, if we get Rams Eagles, I know you don't want to think about it. And Pat's Bills, that's a solid that I go back to my full- Pat's Bills would be incredible. There's no question that would be a who has the ball with two minutes left. Just prepared mostly. The Bills could be missing. Bills had fucking brain and cooks today. Made four big catches for them. I don't even think he was on an NFL roster five weeks ago. I said to my son, like, did you know he was on the Bills? Because he's their best receiver right now. That's it. Right. He was the only guy who could get up a deep. And Brady was like, oh, cookie. If you played with them, you like, I was like, you played with them a year. Settle down. Guess the lines. Week 18. What's our score? Nine, eight. I mean, you're going to win because I would, I don't even think this week should count. These lines move around so much throughout the week. Coaches lie about his plan. Why are you already quitting? Well, because I was off 40 points over 12 games, whatever, probably. First game, Saturday, NFC South on the line, Tampa home for the Pack Panthers. I mailed you two games because we knew what we were getting two games. So, you know, I actually had these. It's in Tampa. I don't like either of these teams. I'm going to be hard pressed to wager on this game. I think it might have to be a 13 point tease and that's it for me. Really? Which way? Who are you at? I don't know. I just like that step or maybe put both of them in it. Bucks minus three was my guess. You got it exactly. I said three and a half. I thought it was little too much for Carolina to handle, but it is three little caveat here. Doesn't necessarily get Tampa the division with a win. If Atlanta wins. This is the craziest stat of all time. Really nuts. Atlanta, who's been eliminated. Atlanta's been done for a month. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. But if they were to beat the Rams and then beat the Saints next week, wouldn't matter if Carolina won or lost. They'd be the champs. So Carolina gets the South. If Atlanta beats the Rams, who might not have anything to play for anymore and might just say fuck it with tomorrow's game. He rested his guys last year, McVeigh. Did that line move? No. Oh, I wrote down my guess right there. We'll get there. Well, it's tomorrow. You're talking about tomorrow's line. We could start by that. Did that line move? Still seven and a half? Seven and a half. The funniest thing about tomorrow. So you have that weird Rams thing where now it's suddenly the NFC South is tied to it. But then you also have Kyle Pitts potentially swinging fantasy titles tomorrow night. Right. This guy who everybody's had. Everybody's spent a couple, gone a couple of rounds with and waved or hated it or hated the experience and whoever landed him around week 12 just like hit the lottery basically. He'll probably have 40 points tomorrow. Yeah. Yeah, I think this is, I have a bigger thing about fantasy later in Paraclona, but I feel like this week should not be utilized. I mean, imagine having Puka in your lineup and McVeigh says, hey, we're sitting everybody. Like that just sucked. Like week 16 is when I think fantasy should end for now on. How said the chat voted for hot water and lemon as the worst proclamation of the year? Oh, really? Yeah. That's good. Damn, Bondi's off the hook. All right. Damn it. Can't believe she couldn't beat me. Bucks Panthers. I feel like we should fan bill, let us do some special bets for this. I'm going to ask them. Like, should we be like, will this game have a pick six? Oh, I see. I think what were the odds on that? Plus 200? A pick six? Plus 300? What would be the odds for a pick six in a game that's clearly going to have a pick six? Oh, I see. Yeah. Normal pick six odds are like 50 to one or 10 to one, whatever. This is like almost a lock. Somebody's throwing a pick six. Right. Yeah, for sure. Some kind of over and or combined interceptions. Two and a half. That's good. I think so. So, attempted down punts where the guy steps in the end zone. He goes for the end zone. Seven and a half, I would say. There's stuff you wouldn't be able to bet on, like number of times the fan base quit on their quarterback during this game. Right. I mean, if Tampa, think about this, they're minus three at home against Carolina to make the playoffs. Like if they can't win this, what the fuck? If we had, if we talked about this in September, like here's Tampa season. They just have to be Carolina by three. They've had so many bad losses, so many bad. I mean, imagine they lost that Thursday game though Atlanta. They're killing them. Saturday night, NFC West on the line, one seat on the line. These two teams can't believe they're not playing on Sunday night. They don't know what else they needed to do. Niners home against the Seattle Seahawks. And I have the Niners favorite by two and a half. I feel like that's low. I don't know why I went the other way. I thought it was tic-tac. I was right about that, but I had Seattle as the favorite. It's San Francisco one and a half, so you get it. That went too high. Wow. So they full tic-tac'd it. Yeah, that's a good one, man. It's a good one. I'm going to apply all playoff manifesto lines to this game. And one of the number one rules of the playoff manifesto is please study the quarterbacks long and hard and think about who you'd feel good about having in this game. I feel good about having Sam Darnold. Just period. I just wouldn't. How about McDonald on the road? Like that's good. Like it's all... How about the team that doesn't ever want to go for it on fourth down in a big game? No, I get it. That sounds terrible. What they play week one? San Francisco beat them week one, right? 17-13. All of these NFC West games have been close across the board. I like the Niners. I do think it probably not awesome. To have the six day turnaround for this one. Yeah. Right? And late in the day. Like all of a sudden they're playing five days from now. They just had a pretty grueling Bears game. McCaffrey looked like he's going to have to fly to Italy or Germany or somewhere to get some stuff. Get the LeBron juice. The Marquis game Sunday night, AFC North on the line. Raven's at the Steelers. We assume no LeBron for this? Probably. I can't say anything. I can't say anything. I assume no Lamar. I think the Ravens are favored either way. I think Mike Tomlin is exactly where he wants to be as a home underdog in a must-win playoff game. This he must be delighted. I have Ravens two and a half. All right. You're going to get this. I said Ravens by one. I thought that was fair and it's Ravens by three. You're going to kill me. I mean, these are the ones I'm closing. I like the Ravens. That's what they want you to say. Could I lose one more time on the Steelers this year? They said it couldn't be done. They said I couldn't lose nighttime on them. If McCaff doesn't play, I don't know how many people listening are watching all the games. You really had to watch that game, like how fucking helpless they were. They just didn't have anybody open. They were trying to run their normal garbage Steward play. They're like back shoulder throws and little lob pass on the end zone. They're running them with like, you know, they're number nine receivers. Sometimes their defense gets mad enough for it. This doesn't matter. I mean, think of how surprised we were when they lost in first week in December in Baltimore. Could this be a Ravens alt line like Ravens by 20? Like if they win, they're really going to win. It's almost like that Packers game or outline 17 or something where they just run all over them. Like if Harbaugh gives Henry the ball more than 12 times, like they could actually, yeah. Yeah, it could be that. Well, think about the Ravens. I don't know, I'm scared to take the minus three here. I know they're better. I know all this stuff. It's all what you're saying, but there could be one more screw job in there for us. There's no question. All right. Next one. There's no question. All right. Next one. AFC number one seed on the line. There's two games. Broncos home for the Chargers. Really tough one to figure out from a Chargers standpoint what their motivations are. Yeah. The Chargers lose. They fall to a seven seed and less Buffalo also loses. Right. The Chargers win. They get the six seed. Did they care? And then the Broncos, do you feel good them getting a lot of points over anybody? I didn't know what to do. I did Broncos minus seven and a half in Denver. All right. You're going to be closer. Now I said nine and a half. It's six and a half, but I think this will go to nine and a half. I think some, you know, Harbaugh, like I said, is going to lie and he's going to say Herbert's not playing and he's going to play like one series or something. And I think it'll go up. Everyone, the right people will know about it, but I'm very much looking forward to putting that on a Moneyline parlay and losing. I think the Broncos are a must for a Moneyline tease. Yeah. Like they like pencil them in as an anchor. I don't see. If it was like the Chargers going from a seven seed to the five seed, maybe, but you have the Texans playing the Colts who it sounds like Phil Rivers is done. Like he talked about these three games. I think that's it. I don't think he's playing week 18. So that's Riley Leonard. So odds are Texans win that. So Texans are going to be the five seed it looks like. So if you're the Chargers, like, yeah, I'd rather play Jacksonville, but is it, would you rather just get the rest and? They don't care. That team's rarely care about that, right? Five, six or seven. Well, the Patriots are home for the Miami Dolphins. And I think this line is going to be higher than it should be. They locked down the two seed if they win. They could get the one seed if they win and Denver loses. I have the Patriots by 12 and a half. Whoa. I said eight and a half. It's nine and a half. Okay. That's good. So that's a second anchor for your Moneyline parlor. It is Quinn Ewers on the road. I just want to point out. It's got to be. Yeah. Yeah. Which is, isn't that what we saw today? Yeah. Quinn Ewers on the road. Yeah. We saw that today against Tampa Bay. So that could be a, that's two less than seven point T's. You can't blow that. What did you beat them the first time? 33, 27. That was ages ago though, right? I think we get Mill Williams back for this game. Yeah. And then, uh, Will Campbell, not until round one, I don't think. He's just throwing all over the place. I think it'll be similar to, it was borrowed that through four touchdowns against them last week, right? Against Miami. It's also odds are cold weather, Miami and cold weather. Right, right, right. There's some good signs for this. You forgot about that. Yeah. The late East Coast start always makes me nervous, but as we discussed. All right. AFC seeding on the line, three games. Texans Colts in Houston. Houston gets the, uh, three seed with a win if Jacksonville loses. Houston gets a five seed if they win. And odds are it's Bradley Leonard. I think the Texans are a classic. Be careful when they're favored by more than X amount of points. And we're probably here. I have Texans by eight and a half. You're going to get it. I said seven and a half. I don't know why I thought it was rivers, but, and I'm not even sure. What do you think there's a point difference from them? But anyway, it's 10 and a half. Oof, that's too high. Is that three? Okay. That could be our three right there. They can't really run the ball. They scored in the first two drives yesterday. And then for the next two and a half hours did nothing. I don't know. That's a lot of points. See, I'm more, I think it's more likely that a team playing for a draft pick screws up this teaser than a team like the three teams we just mentioned. The Raiders after all this could beat the Chiefs. And then that'll be hilarious, right? I don't think Pete Carroll would find it hilarious. They probably told him, like, we'll bring you back next year. Just make sure you lose the rest of this. Oh, interesting. Yeah. And then they'll fire. Jaguar's home for the Titans. Jaguar's locked down the three seed with the win. Look, I think the Pats get the two seed either way, win or lose. I don't think the Jags flip over them, but I might be wrong. There's a lot of moving pieces, but I think the Pats are locked in a two seed. Wait, 12 and four, 13 and four. They'd both be 13 and four. You say new England goes over Jagsville. Yeah, I think they've been over them and all the weird tiebreaker stuff, but maybe I'm crazy. Regardless, Jags, I have minus 14 over the Titans. I said 13 and a half and it's only 10 and a half. Ooh. Didn't they screw something up? Was it the Jags or the Colts a few years ago on week 18? This could be, it was the Colts. Now it was the Jags? It was the Colts, wasn't it? It was one of those Aves, the South Tanks. I can't remember it was all. Wasn't it? No, it was Indianapolis. It was Carson Wentz. That's what it was. And we all had them on every single teaser. I will tell you right now, I'm not putting the Jags in a teaser. I still don't 100% trust them. Do 2% trust Cam Ward? Well, we know there's going to be a want game. We know it. We know one of these games is going to be fucked up. And that thing that scares me is it could be the Dolphins. And then did we do Bill's Jets? We didn't. Bill's home for the Jets. Bill's stay the seven seed unless the Chargers lose. You could make an argument. They might throw the game away and not give a shit and rest Josh Allen for a week. But I did not factor that on my line. They're in Buffalo. I said Bill's by 14 and a half. All right. It is Bill's by 12 and a half, but you're going to get it because I said nine and a half. I'm killing you this week. I think the... So it's Trabisky if it's not Josh Allen, like even if it's a couple, like the great thing about this is you don't have to worry about throwing interception against the Jets because it's just not going to happen. Yeah. And he turned over it all. Trabisky's. We saw it got a thousand yards. Yeah. The Jets need to get a top three pick. They'll probably rest everybody. Did you think if... Do you think the Bill, the Jets and the Giants are now lumped in for every stat like their home record, like MetLife is just extraordinarily bad and they haven't had a winning team and however long do you think at this point they should be like, hey, I want you guys to start including Buffalo when you talk about New York teams. Right. To boost our numbers. Yeah. To boost our numbers. It'll take the attention away from us a little bit. I think that's a really good idea. They should make a statement. I like that. I can't imagine the bills. I mean, this is a 10 point teaser. I'd feel good about the bills in there unless they were starting to arrest people and just throw it away. But we'll find out as we get closer. All right. NFC seeding on the line. Bears line. I mentioned that earlier. They get the two seed with the wind, the Bears. And it's in Chicago. And it's in Chicago. I don't know what's going on with the trade. What would you put for odds on Dan Campbell on the Fox Studio show next year? I asked you like before 2030, but what about next year? No. Next year is what? 20s, 26? Nine months from now. Sometimes? No, no, no. They get rid of Bradshaw. There's Dan Campbell. Are they going to Gronk? One bite kneecaps. One. No. I would say that's still plus 1500. Okay. He needs another year. I love Gronk. He's the best Titan I've ever seen in my life. And one of my four favorite patriots. It's upsetting to me how Fox uses him. And it really makes me mad. Why? What do you mean? They use him like he's like the village idiot. Like they can't, that half time of the game today, which is the only game I've ever watched. And they go and he's standing on the second level and there's a table and Kurt Menafee is like, awkwardly standing next to this table. And Gronk's like, at half time, am I going to jump through that table? And it's like, what does he, our drunk uncle at Christmas who's like, oh, Uncle Gronk's going to knock over the Christmas tree. Watch this. This is a football studio show. He's the best Titan of all time. Why are you making him like a self parody? I love Gronk. What are the producers doing with this? His predecessor is Terry Bradshaw. He's got a P-Bridge. So that's it. They're grooming him to be like the next person everyone makes fun of? Well, you can't. I think Gronk's podcast is good. Hit the one with him and Edelman. Like there's a lot more there. And then on that show, they make him seem like the, it's like, oh, he's like the fucking wacky neighbor in an 80s sitcom that comes over. It's like, oh, Gronk's here. Oh, he knocked over. He knocked over a plant. It's like, is he like, how did he end up with this role on the show? I honestly think there's precedence and that he is grooming Bradshaw. He's grooming him. That's how I mean this is like- It's the best Titan of all time. You're like getting upset that Sammy Hagar screams during his songs. Like, yeah, this is what family I hate when that's what they do. That's what they really want. That's fine. It's upset. He means a lot to me, Gronk. Just like, show Gronk some respect. Am I going to jump through this table? That's coming up next. It's like, what are we doing? It's a network television show. Rams, oh, that'll, by the way, that'll be on a sports blog with like a really angry headline. Oh, no doubt. Bill Simmons eviscerates Fox's use of Gronk Kasky. You want to apologize now? You shouldn't be. No, I'm not going to apologize at all. You're not going to do it? I'm glad. Give the sports blogs their meat. Okay. Just treat Gronk like he has an IQ of over 80 because I'm pretty sure he does. His podcast is good. Are you sure? He's capable of conversations. Because I think it rang in at 77. Am I going to jump through this table? Rams cards. No, we didn't do bears. Oh, we still didn't do bears. Well, Gronk jumped through a table. I got distracted. I have the bears by eight and a half. All right. So we're going to have to talk about this because I said six and I'm staring at this line and the bears are favored by one and a half. Did they lock down number two? We must have read, misread something. So we fucked up. We must have, right? Well, wait a second. What's their record? Oh, I know what it is. They did lock down two. No? Well, because they beat Philadelphia. I don't think so. The lose so... But Philadelphia and Chicago, the same record. So if they win and Philadelphia wins, it doesn't matter. They get the two seed. Yeah, they... But why wouldn't they want to win this game? Did one be the three seed? No, if they lose and Philly wins, they have the same record. They have the two seed. We're going to go through this and say, we used to be able to press pause. Right now, Philly's 11 and five. Chicago's 11 and five. Okay. And Chicago beat Philly. So they have the tiebreaker over them. But if they lose and Philly wins, Philly is then the two seed. I guess they don't care about the two seed. I mean, they are still playing a game. That doesn't make sense. There we got to be missing. Can... How... Can people in the chat, if we're missing something with that Bears game, please put that in the YouTube chat? No, you've read it right. They're both 11 and five. So if they lose a game to Philly, they're not going to... They're going to be a three seed. But why wouldn't they want to win and be the two seed? And the trade season is over. These teams just like to rest. It's just better to have a rest unless you have a shot at a one seed. That's the solid reason. So they'd rather be the three seed? So three... So I mean, they would play the Rams. I'd rather play banged up Green Bay than the Rams. Like a hundred times out of a hundred. Tough to beat a team three times, but you're probably right. Let's ask Rob Gronkowski, who's currently drinking Drano. Drano is our sponsor of the half-time show. Gronk has the Drano taste. It's the best head end of all time. Protect Gronk. Put them on the ringer should do. Put them on with Kellerman and Rich Paul. Gronk's gonna do something. That'd be anything's better. All right. That's crazy though. I would have thought it was like six. I mean, that is what I guessed. Rams Cardinals. It's in Los Angeles. The Rams are basically locked into the six seed. I still think they're going to be favored by seven and a half in this game. All right. I get this. I said eight and a half. It is nine and a half. Am I coming back here? Not really. Six for you. Six for you. You're not coming back. You're coming nowhere. I mean, if they're gonna maybe sit guys tomorrow, wouldn't they also maybe definitely sit guys week eight? Maybe definitely sit guys week 18. That's high. I know Arizona sucks. So if you were the Rams, would you sit Puka and Stafford for the last two games and just get them ready? And anybody else you have who's banged up and just get them ready for round one? Because as you mentioned earlier, they've done this. They have done it. They didn't do it two weeks before. They did it on week 18 last year. We saw Jimmy G out there. But I wouldn't do it because I would feel bad for everyone who put a teaser in on them like Tuesday or Wednesday and wasn't thinking this through like me. I have the Rams in one. One Rams tomorrow and a thing that all the other pieces hit thinking that they were a lock and now they might not care. That's not good. Eagles home for Washington. Eagles locked into a three-seat to get the two-seat with the Chicago loss. And as I said earlier, I still feel like that two-seat matters because you get to play Green Bay who's missing everybody. I have Eagles by 10 and a half. I get this. I said six and seven and a half. See, we're all over the place here. Why is it seven and a half? Are they think they're going to arrest people? This is Josh. Washington is Josh Johnson. That's such a stupid guessing game. This is the hardest week. So we have five games left. What's the score? You're up six-five. I'm so fucking mad. You're up six-five. You wrote below me. You said I was going to win. Well, I think you got all out of sorts with this Gronk thing. Gronk sent me in a tailspin. This game means absolutely nothing. Packers, Vikings, and yet Green Bay is the seven-seat either way. I'm off by three points. So you could steal this one easily. I went low. It's in Minnesota. And I did Packers minus two and a half in Minnesota. Packers minus two and a half. Yeah. I said Vikings minus two and a half. It's Vikings minus five and a half. Oh, you're going to lose your shit. What in the hell? I mean, they're definitely sitting people, right? I mean, that's not... We're going to see guys who... Yeah, I didn't expect to get that. We're going to see some like milk farmers or something from Wisconsin. Well, what are the Vikings have to play for? You know, those were... You know, Max Brasmer. I mean, think about what Brasmer and J.W. Hertz did. Like they had almost negative yards passing combined. And they just... And they both won. Okay. Next category. Four games left. Top three draft pick on the line. First one. Chiefs at Raiders. Chiefs at Raiders. We just saw what the Raiders are capable of this week. Yep. It's in Las Vegas. I wanted to put this in the Vegas zone in honor of the Raiders, but I had to bump it up a point. I did Chiefs minus six and a half. Well done. I had five and a half. It is six and a half, exactly. And yet you can't tease the Chiefs. No way. Because their quarterback is Michael O'Lough Candy, whatever his name is. Can't put him in. The first round pick is number one pick. I... Yeah, I get that the Raiders know the assignment, but is Chris Oladokin going to play ball? Next one's a little harder. Cowboys at the Giants. Giants won today. Screwed up their chance at the number one pick. And now we'll be somewhere in the top five. Cowboys, you don't have your pick, right? Uh-uh. You don't have your pick. We're doing all right. But you don't have your pick, but you have the Packers pick. Right. Yeah. You get the worst one of those two. That is what happened. Yeah. Of Cowboys, minus seven and a half is my guess for this. All right. I get this. I said six and a half. It is currently five and a half. Yeah, Vegas, huh? Okay. Last one. Bengals who are just peeking at the right time here. Home for the Browns. I had the Bengals by seven and a half. We split it. I said six and a half. It is seven. All right. So one game left. What's the score? Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Five, six, seven, eight, one, two, three, four. Fucking Ropendop. Dick, it's tied. Six, seven, eight. God damn it. Seven, I swear it's tied. But is there one game left? Yeah, there's one. Falcon Saints. I'm off by two points. Falcon Saints in Atlanta. You're going to steal it. Falcon Saints in Atlanta. Saints showing signs of life lately. I have the Falcons by three. Yeah. Congratulations. It's two and a half. I said it's two and a half. I said four and a half. That sucks. That's all that came back for nothing. By the way, we have a lot of money. Me, you, House, Hench, Bet. The Saints two come in last place. We have to really give it like 20 minutes thoughts of how we're going to hedge out of this. So the Falcons win one of the next two. We're good. Right. That is, let's see. Wait, where are they? They're Falcons are one ahead of the Saints. No. So there are six and nine. So if they win their seven and nine tomorrow, Saints are six and 10. If they both end up seven and 10. Oh, they have the same record. They've six, both have six wins. Six wins. Yeah. So we're going to have to hedge this. How is this even, we should have won this 40 times over. There we go. The number one pick. Could he win? Could he win? So what do we have? We had Cleveland, Tennessee and the Saints, right? Just those three. Yeah. Just those three. And the Jets, maybe. The only thing that could stop us was Tyler Schuck. Oh yeah. And probably getting the job and then playing so well that he's now one of the favorites to win the offensive Rook of the Year. And that's exactly what happened. He beat everyone at division. Sick man. I lost some crazy future. I was, I thought I was like going to win 75% of my futures that I made before the year. Well, today I lost the Browns. I had, I had a three and a half wins under, which was plus 200. Lost that one. I had the Miami Dolphins under six and a half wins. That was like plus 185. And what were they? One and eight? Or was it like that was a lot? They just played a bunch of cupcakes. Just stupid shit like that. Yeah. What are you going to do? We're excited when it's August. You got to fire away. Parent Corner presented by Greenland 2. Migration. Saw an ad for this during football. If you loved the disaster hip film in 2020, the end of the world was only the beginning apparently. Gerard Butler, Monterey Bakkerin. They're back for the sequel. Oh no, it's, I called it more. It's Morena Bakkerin. All right. Morena Bakkerin. You're dumber than Gronk. You can't even say the words. Back for the sequel. More on that later about Greenland 2. Migration. We're going to do Parent Corner though. What do you got? All right. So, I mean, Christmas, great. Everyone's home together at the Trigo and the gifts. It's beautiful. It's fun. My son, Jack, my middle son, gave me the best gift the father could never receive. We were scheduled. He had a wrestling tournament Friday, December 26th. Wayans were at 7 a.m. in Upland, California, which is a good hour and a half drive. At 5.30 in the morning, you could get there probably an hour and 20 minutes. So, I was going to have to be up on December 26th at 5.30, to take him to a tournament. And then he was going to, the rest of the tournament didn't even start till 11. So, I was going to have to sit in my car and bet like, English Premier soccer. Christmas Eve, wrestling practice. He throws up in front of the coach. And three other kids throw up. This is like the fourth throw up story with Jack. We've had on Parent Corner. Oh, he's so good at vomiting. And the coach is like, see you Monday. It's like, you did it, buddy. You did it. What do you want? So, do you want a pony? Whatever you want for Christmas, I'll get it for you. God bless you. And so there you go. So, the poisons and cheez-its you gave him that had like the stuff, the X-Lacks stuff to make him throw up. Well, it actually worked. It actually worked. That was it. Yeah. And now he's not eating bread or pizza. No, that's you. But so, that was... What a miracle for you. Thank you, Jack. Really great. Really great. What was that Christmas miracle? I can't thank him enough. Honestly, I was so relieved to not have to get up at 5.30 in the morning. I have another one. So, fantasy football is just awful, right? I'm in a high stakes league. And I'm in the finals. So, second place is nice prize, but first place is a ridiculous haul. He did some texting about this. Yes. And I have a decision to make. And going into Saturday, and it's basically Christian Watson or Alec Pierce, right? And so... So, have you checked the history of this whenever somebody has a 50-50 decision like this, they lose 100% of the time with who they picked? Is that... Is that... There's actually no... Yeah, I researched this. Nobody ever has a positive story if they picked the right person. It's always the wrong person. Didn't break the streak this time. So, I'm thinking, all right, Malik Willis, Christian Watson, he also banged on. Watson had the red flag. He had the red flag. Everything's pointing against it. Alec Pierce had two touchdowns last Monday. Crazy figure. Philip Rivers loves him. He's in sync. So, I asked you in Hensh. I asked my buddies Brian and Darren. I asked my buddy Alec. It was named Alec and still didn't say... So, I said, everybody says Watson. And my son Archie, my garchie, I'm going to let you be the deciding factor. And he's like... Actually, everyone said Pierce. I'm sorry. So, I said, I'm going to let you be the deciding factor. He's like, start Pierce, pick up Barnard. He's looking through the things. Like, pick up the tight end on Seattle in case something happens to Pierce in the morning. I'm like, all right, that's a good idea. So, I take Watson out. Freaking goes nuts immediately. Their first touchdown. Malik Willis is like throwing to him like they were college roommates. So, it was still in tune. Like, it's insane. He puts up 23 points and I'm losing my mind. You know, like I come downstairs and I'm like pacing and everything and Archie's like, Watson, huh? And I was like, yes, mother f***, I'm like, Pierce under my back. And he's like, and then Watson will catch the pass and he goes like, goes to high five me. I'm like, what the f*** are you doing? He's talking to you. He's like, well, this is not... This is not... You're going to just stay in your used Corolla Tercel. Like, if he's going like... He's like, what? You put Watson in the lineup. I'm like, no, I didn't. A lot of... Because of you, I said, Pierce. And like, and we picked up Barnard. Remember all that? He's like, oh, yeah, I didn't. Okay, I didn't hear you right. I was like, yeah, you certainly didn't. He's like, oh, calm down. Now you're fighting. Now we're like arguing over this. And so I'm getting mad. I'm like, whatever, I end up losing by 60. So that's good. I'm not going to lose any sleep over this. But I don't think anyone should ever play fantasy for anything more than pride. I just don't... Like, because now Archie and I will never be the same. You can't come back from that. It just ruined the relationship. That was it. We're never going to be the same because of Sister Christian Watson. That's it. So I don't even know what the moral is, but fantasy can really... Don't play fantasy? Don't play fantasy. I had that last week with CJ Straub, just single-handedly murdering my season. And then I'm watching the Chargers game yesterday. And he's just immediately two 70-yard bombs to start the game or whatever happened. I'm like, of course, why do we do this? But you're right. There should be sharp and square picks. What everybody would go with is the square pick. So I should start at Watson. Yeah, just Zag. Yeah, he's got the red flag. Well, in our knockout league, it looks like our friend Coherce, the MOOC, is going to win the league with McCaffrey, as we mentioned earlier. He said, this will be his fourth title since I won my last title in 2007. We still use this dub CBS site, and it has all the champs dating back to... Whenever you started the league, even before I was in it, before I moved to LA, and this is how sad it's become for fantasy for me. And by the way, I won our guillotine league. I've won the league. I'm in with my college and high school buddies. I've hit that, but somehow can't get over the hump. I went back and I looked at my 2017. Like I was looking through an old photo album. Yeah, I went through it. I'm like, oh, man, Tomlinson, Peterson. Oh, Carson Palmer was so good. They had Roma was on the team, Wes Walker. I'm just going through. I'm like, oh, that was such a great year. You should have a reunion. 19 years coming up. 18 years ago. 18 years ago. They're on the fucking site. Anyway, congrats to the MOOC. He's won four times since my last. You should win it once in a while. You take out winning once in a while. I'm good in all the other leagues. I know. My parent corner. So Christmas night, my kids are excited. And by the way, my kids are barely kids anymore. Like my daughter is going to be 21 in May and my son's 18. All the Christmas, they just want to race through it because Netflix is releasing the next three episodes of stranger things. It's all they care about. I love that you're on TV Christmas, but they're never even came over the TV for that. No, couldn't care less. Stranger things is coming. And so we set the dinner so that we can finish and everybody can get out of the house by, you know, like, I don't know, six o'clock and then they're going to watch stranger things. And it's going head to head against the NBA. It's like the end of the second to last game and then Denver, Minnesota, which I was excited about, but I have the setup where we have the big TV and then I have the two side TVs. So I could watch Denver, Minnesota. I'm like, it's Christmas. I'm going to hang out with my kids. I'll watch stranger things with them, which I think was almost four hours because the episodes were longer than an hour. So it's episode five, six, seven, but somehow not the eighth. I've never seen the show other than like the first episode six years ago. I have no idea what's going on with any of it. I've just completely out. I don't know anything. And I'm just watching the show, but I'm really watching the basketball, which turns out to be this incredible game. Yokochai's like a 55, 15, 16. It goes in overtime. Edwards is a crazy shot. And they're watching stranger things. This just seems like the dumbest show. I can't believe this is a phenomenon. But the reason it seemed dumb to me was because I didn't understand any of it. They're so far advanced and it's like, and their kids are explaining it to me like, no, no, only 11 and the other person, they're the only two people that can go back and forth between the worlds and this person can't. There's an upside down. And then there was like the end of the fifth episode, they're going nuts because something, and I'm just watching it. And I didn't know anything that was happening. And I was like, this must be what happened when people watch sports with us. And they don't know anything that's going on. Like we're watching football and we're going nuts on every play. And oh my God. And whoever's sitting there, they don't care about the NFL. And they're kind of annoyed that we're that into it. So it flipped on me on Christmas. I was just kind of annoyed by stranger things. Like I was excited to see Winona Ryder. She meant a lot to us once upon a time. Linda Hamilton came in at some point from Terminator. She was playing a bad person. Other than that, like if you quiz me on what happened, I don't think I'd be able to answer three questions. You can't jump into something like that. That's not like man, man or something. That there's so many twists and turns and stuff like that. Specifically, yeah. It was, it is so far down the rabbit hole for people who watch the show. It is completely inaccessible to people like us. Oh, right. I had no idea it was happening. No, I'll tell you this. My kids were fired up and excited for four hours. They thought it panned out. It played out. They were mad at the end of the seventh episode that it was, that obviously there's one more coming on New Year's Eve. I see. Okay. But they were like, oh, now we have to wait. It was like one of those. What are you going to do New Year's Eve? You're going to have to watch Ohio State play. What was it? Yeah, it's Ohio State, Miami while watching the finale. There's a couple and probably some good basketball too. Need to say I didn't get sucked in. And I feel like now I know what happens for the most part. I don't want to spoil if people haven't seen it yet. Yeah, I know. It hurt my head. I had to quit because it was, first of all, it was very long to knock through season four, or three, whatever it was, was very long. But people do love it. The big winner of the show seems to be Kate Bush, because they keep playing that song she has. Yeah. And they actually weave it into the plot. So like she must be delighted that that happened. But anyway, Parent Corner, I tried to get into it for my kids. It just didn't work. Today's Parent Corner presented by Greenland to migration. Where were we? That's right, the sequel. Five years after a comet strike, devastated most of the earth, the Garrity family leaving the safety of their bunker in Greenland in search of a new home. We'll see. We'll see what happens to them. A disaster film and my guy, Gerard Freakin Butler, my guy from Denetheves. What else do you need? Greenland to migration in theaters January 9th rated PG-13. I have a quick MBA thing for you. Go ahead. And just so people know, this is what I just said. And I nod. And I can't contribute more than I furiously look through. Yeah, but you're on our gambling shows. Of course. You're part of the NBA. I'm just, no, I'm not. The Warriors had a really bad, Warriors had a bad loss today in Toronto. Like a bad one. They controlled the whole game. I actually had it on because we only had two NFL games. So I was watching it and they just couldn't close. And they just kind of like broken. I don't know what the fix is. It's no matter how good Steph is, they can't fix it. Right. Toronto wins an OT. So they've just seemed like they've taken whatever iteration is as far as I can go. Then you see the Lakers. I think they're three and six since LeBron came back. He's kind of screwed up their team. Nobody wants to admit it, but it kind of has. Now they have these, now Reeves is out for a month. The team just has got like, Redick is, seems like he's not handling things great. And I was just thinking like, let's, how do you make the league more fun? You have a team that nobody's excited about with the Lakers and a team that feels dead with the Warriors. LeBron for Jimmy Butler. Oh, okay. That's it. And I looked it up because Brani probably has to be in it too. And the, the Warriors can throw in Will Richard. I, I sent this to a couple of people, including Zach, who got excited about it. Zach Lowe. But it just, it feels like a forget for the good of the sport trade. It's just more fun. The Warriors are not fun. I don't see a scenario where they become from, but now you put LeBron on the team. With Curry, LeBron re-invigorated and who knows. And then Butler is probably a better fit with LeBron and Reeves anyway. And I, without Luca and Reeves anyway. Who's more likely to say no to that? Golden State. I don't know. That's why, oh, I think Golden State would probably do that. To think so. Cause LeBron is an expiring contract in the near, maybe they throw in one more year. It's a good who says no though. Cause if you're the Lakers, you can lock in the, the Butler contract for an extra year because all they care about is two years from now. But maybe Butler is a better fit with what they have anyway. Cause LeBron doesn't really seem like he wants to be on the Lakers. This is my, my take. And then Brani has to come over to Jimmy Butler's son. Have to, they do like this, uh, Timmy Butler. He also has to be involved. Jimmy Butler has any sons. They also have to be in the trade. Okay. I think that works. That was my idea. I like that. That's how I got free. Why couldn't you tell me not to bounce back with the Spurs, not bounce back cause they had beaten the, the thunder on Christmas, but I stupidly took them on a money line parlay against what was it? Jazz. That was the most obvious possible. Oh shut up. That was ridiculous. You know, it was another one and I would never bet against the Celtics, but this road trip where it's like, they're only playing under 500 teams. Like they keep, and it was like the Portland spot was so dangerous tonight. And of course they lost in the last two minutes. I'm hearing another one. Playing the Quippers who were coming, coming on and they're like four bad teams that are playing well now, right? Clippers, the Jazz, the Wizards one, the house's Wizards one back to back. The Nets are playing well. The Nets, stupid Hornets. Porter's playing so well for the Nets that they're going to have to like emerge the trade them it looks like. Yeah. Like they're going to have to like move in the next two weeks before he completely screws up their chance to get a top three pick. There's a lot of teams that are not happy about, about their team right now, including the Warriors and the Lakers, which is what I thought of it. Anything else before we go? That's it. We're going to be on a month with Tate Tuesday and then Friday. I've got a lot of college football to talk and it's good, good time of year. Lots of fun. All right. Well, we're on our last live show on YouTube is going to be next week. Oh, right. After week 18, after the NFC West one seed showdown, we'll be live. And then starting on the January 11th, Sunday, coming off three NFL games. We'll be live on Netflix for that one. And then you'll also be able to get it on Spotify, by the way. It is not exclusively on Netflix. You also have to say that they were on Netflix and Spotify. They cut the biggest check. Don't be stupid here. Yeah. No, they, and then in three weeks from then we're on to be, I don't know how this works out. This is to be that those are the classic episodes with us. This is from years past where we're flipping out about terrible. They'll get to see Simmons 2007 fantasy team highlight. Yeah. Video year book. It's like one week I'm eating, gluted. And next week I'm not drinking water and honey. Well, what the hell? What happened? Well, I'm psyched that I'd be panbonding because it was a very strange year for a lot of different reasons, but in a lot of ways I'm glad we're at the end of it. I'm excited for 2026. As always, good job at you. Good job by you buddy. Thanks to Gahau. Thanks to Eduardo as well. I'm going to see you on Tuesday on this feed. And then special episode of the NFL. And this feed and then a special episode of the rewatchables tomorrow as well. Bye. So see you bud. Must be 21 plus and president select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas start casino or 18 plus and president in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming game problem called win a hundred gambling or visit rg-help.com call 888-797-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or MD gambling help.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling help line MA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support mass. Tuesdays are called 877-8 Hope NY or text hope NY in New York.