Global News Podcast

Iranian clerics reach consensus on new supreme leader

19 min
Mar 8, 20263 months ago
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Summary

This BBC Global News Podcast extra edition covers the escalating US-Israel war with Iran following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's assassination. Iranian clerics have reached consensus on a successor, though the name remains undisclosed due to Israeli threats. The conflict has expanded to include widespread airstrikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and coordinated drone/rocket attacks across Gulf states, with significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.

Insights
  • Iranian regime appears more resilient than anticipated despite military losses, with paramilitary forces maintaining street presence and continued regional attacks suggesting stronger internal control than Western analysts expected
  • Gulf states face a strategic dilemma: caught in crossfire between Iran-Israel conflict while refusing to host US military operations, yet vulnerable to Iranian retaliation and potential energy infrastructure disruption
  • China's muted diplomatic response reflects prioritization of Trump administration relations over traditional support for Iran, signaling potential shift in Beijing's Middle East positioning and possible oil trade realignment
  • Shia theological beliefs in martyrdom and religious warfare fundamentally complicate Western assumptions about conflict resolution, as combatants view military defeat differently than secular frameworks predict
  • UN and international institutions face credibility crisis as major powers (US, Iran) disregard multilateral mechanisms, with humanitarian chief warning of cascading regional crises beyond immediate conflict zone
Trends
Escalating targeting of critical energy infrastructure as strategic warfare, with direct attacks on oil facilities creating secondary humanitarian crises (air pollution, displacement)Decentralized leadership succession planning under military threat, with clerical bodies potentially operating via virtual meetings to avoid targetingRegional spillover effects expanding beyond primary combatants to include secondary targets (Lebanon, Gulf states) despite non-participation in initial conflictHumanitarian displacement crisis accelerating across multiple countries (Lebanon, Afghanistan, Pakistan) as secondary consequence of regional military escalationGeopolitical realignment with China deprioritizing traditional Iran alliance in favor of US engagement, suggesting shifting great power dynamics in Middle EastCivilian infrastructure vulnerability in densely populated urban centers (central Beirut, Kuwait, Dubai) becoming primary impact zone of regional conflictEnergy market disruption risk from attacks on Persian Gulf oil and LNG infrastructure affecting global supply chainsInstitutional erosion of UN authority and international law frameworks as major powers pursue unilateral military action
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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iranian Supreme Leader killed in initial Israeli airstrike, triggering succession crisis and regional escalation
Charlotte Gallagher
BBC Global News Podcast presenter and episode host conducting interviews with international correspondents
Lise Doucette
BBC Chief International Correspondent reporting on Iranian Supreme Leader succession and Assembly of Experts decision...
Rana Rahimpour
Iranian-British journalist and former BBC correspondent monitoring Tehran situation and regime security assessment
Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh
Director of Tehran-based think tank Diplo House describing oil depot destruction and environmental pollution impacts
Isaac Herzog
Israeli President discussing military motivations and intelligence regarding Iranian ballistic missile and nuclear pr...
Samir Hashmi
BBC Correspondent in Riyadh reporting on Gulf states' attacks, frustrations, and back-channel diplomatic efforts
Lina Sinjab
BBC Correspondent in Beirut reporting on central Beirut airstrikes and Lebanese civilian displacement crisis
Wang Yi
Chinese Foreign Minister providing cautious diplomatic statement on Middle East conflict at press conference
Stephen McDonnell
BBC Correspondent in Beijing analyzing China's muted response and strategic prioritization of Trump administration re...
Tom Fletcher
UN Humanitarian Chief warning of grave peril, civilian displacement, and institutional erosion of international law f...
Laura Koonsberg
BBC Correspondent conducting interviews with Israeli President Herzog and UN Humanitarian Chief Tom Fletcher
Donald Trump
US President referenced for public statements rejecting international law and anticipated diplomatic visit to China
Quotes
"This is a war that should never have happened and one that benefits no party."
Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign MinisterMiddle of episode
"If you are paying attention to what President Trump is saying, it would be good to remember that he asked for unconditional surrender on the fifth day of the 12-day war last year as well. It did not happen. It would not happen this time either."
Rana Rahimpour, Iranian-British JournalistEarly-middle section
"They really don't know what to do because the worry is that if they get involved in the war directly, then that could lead to more escalation, more civilian areas getting targeted and potentially lead to more killings."
Samir Hashmi, BBC CorrespondentMiddle section
"There's nowhere safe in Lebanon anymore."
Lina Sinjab, BBC Correspondent in BeirutLater section
"We're in this sort of strongman moment right now, muscular geopolitics, people resorting far too soon to weapons, guns, warfare, rather than these institutions that we've built up at such, with patience and at such cost."
Tom Fletcher, UN Humanitarian ChiefFinal section
Full Transcript
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. It's time to see what you can accomplish with Shopify by your side. This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline for the show? From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life. and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts. This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte Gallagher and this is an extra edition of the Global News Podcast to update you on developments in the US-Israel war with Iran on Sunday the 8th of March. Iran decides who its next supreme leader will be after the last one was killed in an airstrike. More drones and rockets fired at Iran's neighbours. And the UN warns of a dangerous moment. Also in this podcast, we look at China's response to the war. Facing the Middle East engulfed in war, I want to say that this is a war that should never have happened and one that benefits no party. Iran says the group selecting the new supreme leader has made its decision. A member of the clerical body which chooses him says the announcement will be made later. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed at the very start of the US-Israeli bombing campaign and Israel has warned it will hunt down any successor. As the conflict enters its second week, the United States and Israeli forces have expanded their bombardment of Iran. The Israeli military is now bombing one of Iran's biggest sources of revenue, oil. Huge fireballs reaching into the night sky were seen in Tehran on Saturday night when an oil depot was hit by airstrikes. strikes. Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh is the director of the tram-based think tank Diplo House, which is aligned with the regime. As he described to the BBC how the oil depots were destroyed, he was also coughing from the pollution. They attacked the oil facilities again and again. This morning, actually, the Environment Organization announced that the air pollution is so high because of the explosion that it would be better for the sensitive groups not to leave houses and those on the streets would be better to use masks. Will American and Israeli bombing make the regime surrender? If you are paying attention to what President Trump is saying, it would be good to remember that he asked for unconditional surrender on the fifth day of the 12-day war last year as well. It did not happen. It would not happen this time either. Rana Rahimpour is an Iranian-British journalist and former BBC presenter and correspondent. She's been monitoring the situation. Videos that have been published of today shows black smoke covering the entire capital. And a reporter tweeted that it has been raining and the rain is black and you can smell oil in the air. So there's a lot of concerns about the effects on people who have difficulty breathing. Tehran was already a very polluted city. Don't forget that this is a country that's been under the rule of a regime that was incompetent in every aspect of running a country. But this is on a different level. There's a thick black smoke covering the entire capital, which is a very, very large city. You mentioned the regime. How secure does that regime look to you? Probably more secure than I was expecting a week ago. I am surprised to hear that the regime paramilitary troops are still marching out on the streets, chanting slogans and saying, Heydar, Heydar, which is a Shia chant for fight And they intimidating the people who are hiding in their houses and flats across the city So the fact that they still out on the streets with their guns threatening the people and continuing to attack the neighbouring countries in the region, suggests that they are stronger than a lot of people thought they were. And the other thing that I think the West has underestimated or even misunderstood is the Shia Muslim way of thinking, they believe in martyrdom. They honour being martyred in a war against their religious foes. That makes this war even more complicated. When people say, how come they don't put down the guns and they don't leave? They don't believe in putting guns down. Even if they're in the minority, they prefer to be killed and go to heaven, their heaven, than thinking about the country and what will happen to the future of the country. Well, for more on what we know about a successor to Iran's supreme leader, I spoke to our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette. Well, Charlotte, as you know, there's been great interest in who will be the next supreme leader of Iran ever since Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the first wave of Israeli airstrikes on February the 28th, the start of this war. And there's been conflicting news for days. We've also got slightly contradictory reports coming out on different news agencies, although a number of them seem to be saying that the body which is tasked with selecting the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts, some 88 clerics, have come to a decision. Some say it's a consensus, some say it's a majority view, but they all say that the name will not be announced because Ezreal has made it clear. In fact, just as we were receiving the first reports this morning, that the successor was chosen or about to be chosen. Israeli military's Farsi language website put out another statement saying whoever is chosen will be killed. So have they chosen the person? Is the successor going to be named? We still don't really have a full last final word on that. Because I was thinking earlier, logistically, how can this group even meet in person to make this decision? Because surely if they're all together, they're going to be the biggest target for Israel and the US. Yes, in fact, Israel in some of its posts made that clear. Not only would the successor be targeted, but the people who choose the successor will be targeted. And very early on in this war, they attacked the old parliament building in Tehran, where the Assembly of Experts was meant to meet. They also targeted the offices in Qom, which is a place of a lot of the clerical institutions. These are very elderly clerics, so you wonder whether they meet by Zoom, but in fact, Zoom would disband, that they had met virtually. but as you can imagine, so much speculation. But it is part of this that as the Israeli and American officials hail their extraordinary military success, and there has been military success, Iranian officials have to not just keep themselves alive, but have to project that it's business as usual, that they are carrying on, that there's no leadership vacuum. That was our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette. Iran has fired more drones and rockets at its Gulf neighbours. Video from Sunday shows a tower block in Kuwait engulfed by flames. An oil storage facility at its international airport was also hit. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar have also been targeted. The Iranian president has backpedaled on a statement promising Gulf states they would only be targeted if they attacked first, saying it had been misconstrued. The country's powerful revolutionary guards had almost immediately contradicted the president. Our correspondent, Samir Hashmi, is in Saudi's capital, Riyadh, and gave us the latest from the region. We heard from Kuwait where a building was struck and it was engulfed in fire. Two Kuwaiti personnel died who were part of the rescue team. Bahrain earlier reported that three people were injured at a university campus in one of their cities. A water salination plant in Bahrain was also targeted and attacked and damaged. Here in Saudi Arabia, the defense ministry said that overnight, four missiles were launched towards Riyadh, which were intercepted and shot down. According to the statement, one of them was targeted towards the diplomatic quarters, which is the locality or the enclave where all the embassies and diplomatic missions are located. So there has been a constant barrage of attacks. We saw in Dubai attacks starting from Dubai airport and then one of the tallest buildings in Dubai Marina, which is the upscale area in Dubai, in South Dubai, getting attacked. And one person actually died at a different location because of a debris falling on him, a Pakistani national. So, yeah, the attacks have continued and they haven't stopped. And what are the Gulf nations saying? And importantly, what kind of conversations might be happening behind the scenes? Well the Gulf nations are really frustrated because their argument is this is not their war This is a war between Iran and Israel and the United States and they got caught in the crossfire They haven't allowed the Americans to use the military bases or their territory, which are located, I mean, the military bases that are on the Persian Gulf soil or their territory to launch any attacks. And their argument has been that Iran has been targeting them unfairly, even though they have resisted from joining this war and have also prevented the Americans to use their territory. So they have been really frustrated. And it's just that they're caught in a dilemma. They really don't know what to do because the worry is that if they get involved in the war directly, then that could lead to more escalation, more civilian areas getting targeted and potentially lead to more killings. And that's something that the Gulf states wants to avoid. And then you also have huge energy infrastructure in this part of the world. It is really a critical geography for global energy supplies, whether it's crude oil or even LPG, natural gas. So that's the other worry, that if Iran starts targeting them in a major way, then that could disrupt energy supplies as well. So the Gulf states are really frustrated. They haven't taken a call whether to join or not. The Saudi officials and sources of mine have been telling me they have been involved in back-channel talks with the Iranians, but so far they haven't made any progress in terms of convincing them to stop these attacks on the Persian Gulf states. Samir Hashmi in Riyadh. Israel's Air Force says over the past 24 hours, it has struck more than 400 targets in western and central Iran, including ballistic missile launchers and weapons production sites. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, has told the BBC's Laura Koonsberg more about his country's motivations. We have seen information and very sensitive intelligence that now is actually quite confirmed by many partners that the Iranians were working on both sides, meaning on the one hand moving quickly towards a 20,000 ballistic missile storage and preparation for launching and most importantly through other installations rushing to the bomb. Israel has killed at least four people in a strike in the early hours of Sunday on central Beirut, the first on the heart of Lebanon's capital during this war. Israel says it targeted Iranian-linked commanders. Lina Sinjab told me more from Beirut. I think the most shocking one that happened in the early hours of the morning, right after midnight, actually not far from where I'm living, just five minutes walk from my house at the seaside, which is the central Beirut and the area condensed with civilians, an area of restaurants and, you know, sightseeing. And during Ramadan, the people go out and about all night until the early hours of the morning before they start their fasting. So it happened and attacked a hotel where four people were killed and 10 injured. But the worrying thing is that this is the first time that happens in central Beirut. And this is a hotel that is home for, became home for hundreds of people displaced who run away for their safety from the south of Lebanon and southern suburb of Beirut to find themselves being trapped again in airstrikes. And this is telling people that there's nowhere safe in Lebanon anymore. And Lina, I guess one of the biggest frustrations for a lot of Lebanese people is they feel that this isn't their war. This is a war between Iran and an Iranian-backed group, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. and the US and Israel. And the majority of Lebanese people have nothing to do with this. And more and more voices even among Hezbollah's community are critical. You know, this country hasn't even recovered from the last war in 2024. Many people who fled this war now have fled it last time and lost their homes. And now they're losing them again. For simply one group, one, you know, armed group that is not officially mandated by the government to act, taking the decision and dragging the country into war. And despite the government made it clear that all security and military activities of Hezbollah are banned, the group came out to make a statement and say we are fighting a legitimate war against Israel. Although, you know, the first round of rockets they threw into Israel that prompted this response, they made it clear it was in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader. So for many Lebanese, they feel that Hezbollah is not acting for the interest of the country or the interest of its own community, but rather taking orders from Iran. Lina Sinjab in Beirut. One country you might think would have a lot to say about the US and Israel war with Iran is China Beijing imports a lot of its oil from Iran and has in the past promoted itself as a mediator of conflicts in the Middle East But China has been relatively quiet about this conflict, though here's the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaking at a press conference on Sunday. Facing the Middle East engulfed in war, I want to say that this is a war that should never have happened and one that benefits no party. So why the caution? Here's Stephen McDonnell in Beijing. In theory, China should be backing Iran in this conflict. Beijing puts its forward as the champion of the global south, the developing world in the face of this type of aggression from the US. And from the Chinese foreign minister, we get today that this is a war that should not have happened. I mean, that's pretty soft language. It's even softer than the language that Wang Yi has himself used since the war broke out. So it leaves you thinking, well, why would the Chinese government be downplaying its opposition to this war? And most analysts, I think, would agree it's because Donald Trump is due here in the next month or so and that Beijing doesn't want to jeopardise this visit. So far from overly criticising the Trump administration, and he had plenty of chances to do it, answered a couple of questions on US-China relations. He was talking up the potential of Washington and Beijing acting together and what this could mean for the world stage. Imagine what he could have said. This is an illegal war disrupting global supply chains. We're entitled to buy oil from wherever we like, etc, etc. None of that. He didn't even mention it. And there is a possibility here, again, according to some China watchers, is that China might take up the US offer to buy more oil from it. That was Stephen McDonnell reporting. Finally, the United Nations humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher has said the world is facing a very dangerous moment as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran. He was speaking to the BBC's Laura Koonsberg. This is a moment of grave, grave peril right now. We're seeing a lot of unintended consequences to this military escalation. And across the region, we're seeing an impact on massive impact on civilians, hundreds of thousands displaced, needs rising very, very fast. But we're also seeing secondary impacts on places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, where needs were already great and where more people are being displaced. And then, of course, you know, I have to worry about this as well. We're seeing all the other crises, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, slipping even further down the list. So I'm really worried at the moment. We are seeing right now this sustained attritional attack on the rule of law, on the institutions like the UN that are designed to prevent this kind of conflict. We've all got to take a deep breath. We need cool heads to prevail. We've got to step back from the brink right now. But is anybody going to listen to that call when you have an American president who said publicly, I don't need international law, when you have Iran having ignored the pleas of the international community for years and years. Is anyone listening to the United Nations? I fear they're not listening as much as I wish they would. We're in this sort of strongman moment right now, muscular geopolitics, people resorting far too soon to weapons, guns, warfare, rather than these institutions that we've built up at such, with patience and at such cost, because after the Second World War, we realised the danger to common humanity if we don't have these places where we can actually settle our differences peacefully. Right now, we're not being heard. We're not being listened to. Our job is to keep shouting loudly, to keep speaking truth to power and keep demanding protection of civilians and accountability for those behind the violence. That was Tom Fletcher speaking to Laura Koonsberg. And that's all from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. You can also find us on X at BBC World Service. Use the hashtag Global News Pod. And don't forget our sister podcast, The Global Story. This edition of the Global News Podcast was mixed by James Piper and the producer was Charles Sanctuary. The editor is Karen Martin and I'm Charlotte Gallagher. Until next time, goodbye. This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline for the show? From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life. and all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.