“Ahead of the State of the Union”
42 min
•Feb 25, 2026about 2 months agoSummary
On the eve of the State of the Union, MSNBC's Deadline: White House examines Trump's dramatic polling collapse one year into his presidency, with 60% of Americans saying the country is worse off. The episode features Epstein survivors demanding transparency on withheld FBI documents and covers Europe's strengthened defense posture as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year.
Insights
- Trump's political base is fragmenting beyond the core 20-25% loyalists, with swing voters moving from neutral to 'strongly disapprove,' a shift that drives Democratic turnout and electoral performance
- The Epstein files transparency movement has achieved rare bipartisan support, signaling that non-partisan issues can still unite Americans when framed around justice and rule of law
- Europe has strategically decoupled from U.S. security guarantees under Trump, accelerating defense spending and military innovation partnerships with Ukraine that may reshape NATO's long-term structure
- Trump's foreign policy reversals—from anti-forever-wars rhetoric to Middle East adventurism and Ukraine abandonment—have alienated his own coalition on his core campaign promises
- The withholding of Epstein documents despite bipartisan legislation mandating release signals either systemic incompetence or deliberate obstruction, undermining institutional credibility
Trends
Erosion of institutional trust in executive branch compliance with congressional oversight and transparency mandatesShift toward European strategic autonomy and defense self-reliance independent of U.S. security commitmentsSurvivor-led advocacy movements achieving bipartisan political coalitions around justice and accountability issuesDecoupling of Trump's stated foreign policy ideology from actual implementation, creating cognitive dissonance among supportersEconomic populism backlash: tariffs and inflation disproportionately harming Trump's rural/agricultural base in red statesCelebrity and institutional leadership hesitation to publicly oppose Trump despite private concerns, driven by economic interdependenceUkraine's military innovation in drone warfare and asymmetric defense becoming model for European defense modernizationFragmentation of Republican Party trust in democratic institutions and electoral systems despite party control of Congress and presidency
Topics
Trump Administration Polling and Political StandingEpstein Files Transparency and Document WithholdingState of the Union Address 2025Ukraine War Fourth Anniversary and NATO ExpansionTariff Policy Economic Impact on Rural AmericaU.S. Foreign Policy Shift on Middle East InterventionEuropean Defense Spending and Strategic AutonomySurvivor Advocacy and Bipartisan Justice CoalitionsExecutive Branch Compliance with Congressional OversightDrone Warfare Innovation and Military TechnologyDemocratic Electoral Strategy and Voter TurnoutRule of Law and Institutional CredibilityImmigration Policy ImplementationInflation and Cost of Living Political ImpactMedia Landscape and Information Fragmentation
Companies
Washington Post
Discussed as example of institutional media under pressure; Jeff Bezos criticized for editorial board restrictions am...
Walmart
Referenced as retail example where consumer prices have increased due to inflation and tariff policies
Target
Referenced as retail example where consumer prices have increased due to inflation and tariff policies
People
Donald Trump
President of the United States; central focus of episode analyzing his polling collapse, foreign policy reversals, an...
Vladimir Putin
Russian President; discussed regarding Ukraine invasion objectives, failed war aims, and ongoing conflict after four ...
Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukrainian President; quoted on Ukraine's defense of independence and Putin's failure to achieve war objectives
Claire McCaskill
Former Senator and political analyst; provided analysis of Trump's political standing and coalition fragmentation
John Heilman
Puck News senior political columnist; analyzed Trump's attention economy challenges and defections across policy areas
Jamie Raskin
Democratic Congressman; discussed Epstein files transparency efforts and document withholding by Justice Department
Skye Roberts
Brother of Epstein survivor Virginia Roberts; advocated for transparency and survivor justice at State of the Union
Amanda Roberts
Sister-in-law of Epstein survivor Virginia Roberts; attended State of the Union to advocate for transparency and justice
Michael McFaul
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia; analyzed Ukraine war outcomes, Putin's failed objectives, and European strategic shift
Anne Applebaum
Atlantic staff writer; discussed European defense modernization, Russian hybrid warfare, and Ukraine military innovation
Erwin Redlener
Co-founder of Ukraine Children's Action Project; highlighted humanitarian crisis and impact on Ukrainian children's e...
Pam Bondi
Attorney General; criticized for incomplete Epstein document release and alleged incompetence or deliberate obstruction
Jeff Bezos
Amazon founder and Washington Post owner; criticized for restricting editorial board endorsements under Trump pressure
Robert De Niro
Actor; featured in separate interview discussing need for national unity and anger over Trump's divisive governance
Thomas Massey
Republican Congressman; noted as rare GOP supporter of Epstein files transparency alongside Democrats
Steve Whitcoff
Trump administration official; alleged to be conducting private business negotiations with Russia during Ukraine peac...
Quotes
"The American people are basically telling the president that they are not okay with any of this."
MSNBC Newsletter Promo•Opening segment
"60% of Americans say our country is worse off than one year ago. That includes more than two-thirds of independents."
Nicole Wallace•Early segment
"We have an entire country of survivors and people who are allied with the survivors. And we are going to insist that the truth come out, that justice be done and the perpetrators be held accountable in every single case."
Jamie Raskin•Epstein files segment
"Putin has not achieved his goals. He has not broken Ukrainians. He has not won this war."
Volodymyr Zelensky•Ukraine war segment
"You can't divide people. You can't win that way. It's a no-win situation."
Robert De Niro•Best People interview segment
Full Transcript
As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, follow along with the MSNOW newsletter, Project 47. You'll get weekly updates sent straight to your inbox with expert analysis on the administration's latest actions and how they're affecting the American people. The American people are basically telling the president that they are not okay with any of this. Sign up for the Project 47 newsletter at ms.now slash project 47. We have an entire country of survivors and people who are allied with the survivors. And we are going to insist that the truth come out, that justice be done and the perpetrators be held accountable in every single case. That's the importance of us getting through this documentation to the underlying facts. And I want to thank all the survivors here for waking up every day, just like the people of Minneapolis and going right back to the front lines of this fight. And tonight, that includes the State of the Union address, where the president is going to have to see that this is a nation of survivors and their allies. Well, hi again, everybody. It's now five o'clock in New York. That's how you're here. Just a deep breath on the part of we, the people, the American people, as we prepare to welcome Donald Trump into our homes this evening. so to speak, at a really fraught moment for him and for the country and for Trump's presidency. It is a stone-cold fact essential to any sober analysis of tonight's State of the Union address that the audience of the country, the American people, has overwhelmingly soured on Donald Trump just over the course of a year. I believe it is the most dramatic and precipitous fall in polling recorded in modern history. 60% of Americans say our country is worse off than one year ago. That includes more than two-thirds of independents. As you might recall, that new CNN poll we covered here yesterday, 63% of respondents say they right now disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. We could spend the whole hour pouring through this data, but the reality of Donald Trump's political standing isn't that hard to see. Ahead of his State of the Union address tonight, he's all but squandered whatever political capital he enjoyed in the days and weeks after his reelection. People simply don't like what they're seeing him do, full stop, on matters of foreign policy, on immigration, on the economy, which is what he ran on, which is what he's expected to try to spin us about and on this evening. These were the key pillars of his campaign for president. And then there's the other context behind tonight's address, what we've been talking about, the Epstein scandal still unfolding, even late this afternoon. We mentioned that reporting from MS Now, new today, quote, the Justice Department has withheld notes and memos reflecting FBI interviews from its release of the Epstein vials, including interviews with a woman who accused Donald Trump of sexually abusing her when she was a minor, MS Now has confirmed. NPR reported on Tuesday that more than 50 pages of notes and memos reflecting FBI interviews with the women are not found in the Justice Department's publicly released database of documents related to convicted and deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, end quote. MSNOW has reached out to the White House for any comment about the missing pages. Earlier, a Trump spokesperson told NPR that Trump had been, quote, totally exonerated on anything relating to Epstein, end quote, and has denied wrongdoing in the past. In a post on social media, the Justice Department also denies anything has been deleted, adding, quote, all responsive documents have been produced unless a document falls within one of the following categories, duplicates, privilege, or part of an ongoing federal investigation, end quote. But underscoring the consequential nature of these latest revelations, House Democrats had invited survivors of Epstein's abuse to the chamber this evening before that reporting broke. Congressman Jamie Raskin, who started this hour for us. We'll join the program in a few minutes. But first, here we are, a tick under four hours away from a State of the Union address to be delivered by a president whose popularity is in the midst of a political nosedive just one year into his second term. That is where we begin the hour. Political analyst, former Senator Claire McCaskill, is still with me at the table. Also, back after popular demand, Puck News senior political columnist, national affairs analyst, John Heilman. Claire, your thoughts about Trump's political standing? Yeah, his priorities are not the priorities of the vast majority of Americans. And as much as he wants to disbelieve that America doesn't want him to take Greenland or swoop into Venezuela and kill drug dealers in Venezuelan boats and build a new ballroom and all the things he is. And the fact that he is so enamored with the power of the military right now is maybe the most frightening thing about his preoccupation right now with what's going on in the Middle East. It is a very dangerous neighborhood. And there has never been a time that America has gone into the Middle East and been able to come out cleanly or quickly with something close to what we would call a victory. and we have paid a tremendous price in human life for the battles we have fought in the Middle East. And that's not what he campaigned on. So his priorities are not what he campaigned on, other than shutting the southern border. There's really nothing else he's done. The majority of his tax breaks to rich people, not his base. The majority of his time has been spent on his vanity projects and trying to get an award. I mean, he wants his name on stuff and he wants to be given things. And I think the American people are worn out with it. And I don't think the speech tonight is going to make any difference whatsoever in his standing in the polls. One of the structures that has sustained him for his, I don't know, it feels like 100 years, but I guess 10 years with the center really of the political stage, is being able to, with a broad brushstroke, dismiss all the critiques as the hand-wringing of the elites. But everyone he's screwed over is an important part of his own coalition. We showed you in the last hour all of the sort of prominent podcasters in the manosphere who really wanted the transparency. Kash Patel and others promised him on the Epstein files. But any sort of farmer anywhere in the country, but really in solid red states, has been screwed over by the tariffs. Anyone who relied on him to sort of juice the economy, which he promised to do, standing in front of melting food products at Bedminster ahead of the election in the summer of 2024. just about everything that people buy every week for their families is more expensive, either at Walmart or Target or the grocery store. All those prices have been jacked up through inflation and through tariffs. And the chaos has an economic consequence. I wonder if you think that people who are not that interested in Democrats, but who are deeply disappointed in Donald Trump are open to breaking with him, or if you think that's just too locked in in our country? Oh, I think there's right around somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the country that is going to defend him no matter what. It's going to get better. He knows what he's doing. Tariffs are good. Tariffs are good. He's keeping his promises, all of that. But what's happening with the rest of the electorate is they're moving towards the end of the spectrum. So what's happening, people who are neutral about Donald Trump are moving into slightly disapprove. People who slightly disapproved are moving into strongly disapprove. And when you get this huge weight in strongly disapprove, that's when you drive turnout. That's why you're seeing Democratic candidates overperforming. Because the people that are in that strongly disapprove category, they want to do something. And they're frustrated with Democrats right now, because they don't think they're doing anything. They need to do more, do more. I have to gently remind people we don't have majorities in the House or the Senate in order to really do what many of the people in the Democratic Party want them to do. So I do think people are drifting towards a passionate disapproval of him, which is how you win elections against the Republican Party. I also think this is where the response of Minneapolis to ICE killing two American citizens and the steadfast and consistent calls for transparency over the Epstein files by the survivors and Democrats and at least one Republican in Thomas Massey has, I mean, you've got 90% of Americans who know about the Epstein files and the push to release the files. You've got cultural, we've been covering this day after day, week after week, cultural icon after cultural icon falling in behind to support not a political party, but the ordinary people of Minneapolis who stood up against our federal government. And you have Donald Trump walking in tonight, seemingly still in this, I mean, the person now with TDS, which is what they used to call reporters and liberals, the person with Trump derangement syndrome is Trump. Yeah. And I think, you know, the thing that Claire just said a second ago, which I think is super important, if you look in some of those numbers, you've got that, you've got the Republican Party is now 20% down. I don't know why. But it's 20% down when the party over whether they trust the system. And that's sort of a sign where, you know, you're getting these Republicans who are not yet ready to break with Trump, but they're ready to say, we don't believe in, we've lost faith in the system. Well, the system right now is Trump. It's Trump. It's Trump's Republican Party, Trump's House majority, Trump's Senate majority. They do what Trump wants. So that's the beginning of what could be a break. And when you lay down your three categories, Nicole, I'm now very simple about a lot of this stuff, which is the attention economy. Like, what are people seeing every day in all the complicated, fractured media environment they live in? What they have seen is on those big issues, they've seen Donald Trump is now not for keeping us out of the forever wars. He's engaged in foreign adventurism, left, right, and center, and including up to now at the brink of war with Iran, which, to Claire's point, you know, everybody who's serious about foreign policy is like, this could be a catastrophe. It could be exactly what Trump said. This could be a forever war, another Afghanistan, another Iraq. Four times the size is Iraq. And they tried to do regime change there which seems to be the goal So people who didn like didn want forever wars that the biggest drop we saw when we looked at those numbers that you put up at the beginning of the segment That where the biggest defection has happened What else have they seen for the last year They seen the Epstein files Donald Trump just another politician, is a liar, is a hypocrite, is a fraud, and is hiding something. Those are like the headlines from everybody around the country. And that's not what they thought Donald Trump was if they were for him. And then in that third category, you look at this immigration. That is a story that all last year, even before we got to Minneapolis, that had gotten through. That was not what people wanted. And so it's not surprising if you add that to the fact that the economy stinks for a lot of people. It's not surprising that Donald Trump's in his much trouble. There's not a bright spot. There's not a place where Trump says, I promised this and I was able to give you that. And all of the things that people really are absorbing are all things that cut deeply against the grain for his supporters and people who are open to him, what they thought he was offering, what they thought they were going to get, and what he says he is. Yeah. I want to bring into our coverage right now Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin of Maryland. He's joining us with his State of the Union guest, Virginia Jafre's brother, Skye Roberts, and her sister-in-law, Amanda Roberts. Thank you all so much for talking to us today. Thanks for having us. Congressman, I'll let you start. I saw your statements earlier today. Just tell me the importance of the work that the survivors have done to get us to this moment where the country largely agrees that survivors and victims are owed transparency over the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and files. Well, Sky and Amanda and the other survivors and family of survivors have really blown the roof off the house because they forced us to create a bipartisan coalition to pass a law mandating the release of the Epstein vials and to promote transparency. Now, the administration has complied about 50 percent, maybe. That's looking at it shareably. But they've released, they've said, 3 million documents. 3 million are still being withheld. But even with the 3 million released, it looks like a ransom note with all of the redactions and stuff being blacked out. And the one thing that they were told not to do, which was to release the names of the survivors, they did in the case of dozens of survivors identifying information. So that's either just spectacular incompetence and negligence on the part of Attorney General Bondi and the 100,000 people she has at her disposal, or it's deliberate cruelty and indifference and indeed perhaps sending a message to these survivors. But they're not letting go. They're here at night. And that's why I, you know, I'll let Sky and Amanda tell you why they came. But I think that they've come to say that the survivors are not letting this go. Donald Trump keeps saying, let's move on, Democrat hoax and all that stuff. And they're here to refute it all. Sky, what would your sister think of you standing there with Congressman Raskin and being at the State of the Union tonight? It's an honor to be here with Representative Raskin. And, you know, because of people like him, we're actually at this stage as well and starting to make a real difference. I mean, you know, I don't know if I can really put it into words what she would say. The truth is, this is a very surreal moment. But her goal in all of this was to affect real change. I mean, you know, there's a law that's hopefully going to be passed here. It will be passed with a lot of perseverance, but Virginia's law, which is to eliminate the statute of limitations. So, I mean, what she would be doing here today is she'd be lobbying for her survivor sisters and for survivors around the world to ask our Congress to put in law what many of them state is important to them. So, you know, Virginia's law is very important to us. And we're going to keep advocating for that and for all the survivors so we can get the release of these files and get the perpetrators. Sky, what is your feeling about why or how in the UK, the probe into prominent politicians, people inside government seems to be moving faster than that effort in this country? Yeah, I mean, the UK has gone far above what the United States has done up to this point, to Representative Raskin's point. I mean, they've released 3 million files, but there's 3 million more. Can you imagine what's even in the other 50 percent? So, you know, I do commend the king. I think that he's done a much better job of handling this situation. But let's be clear, like they're still they're still walking around free men. This needs to be fully investigated. We do call on transparency. That is one of the biggest things that I think we're asking for across the table. And it's just kind of a shame that this administration continues to make this a circus instead of actually doing the right thing for survivors. Amanda, what are you doing to prepare yourself to sit in that chamber and watch Donald Trump? We've been, you know, I'll say warned just for the duration at this point that he could talk for two hours. I mean, how are you mentally preparing to listen to Donald Trump talk in that chamber for two hours? Wow. I'm trying to stay focused on the goal and the goal here is to be with our survivor sisters there will be an empty seat next to us for virginia and and that's where i'm going to keep my focus and i know there will be some very uncomfortable moments they'll be you know i feel it'll be very much like the bondy hearing and sitting behind her and at moments feeling this visceral reaction to her complete ignorance and like disrespect towards survivors. So I don't expect anything different from Donald Trump. I'm comparing myself with a lot of caffeine and support with survivors and us just being there for each other and knowing that this moment is for them. It's for Virginia and every survivor out there. Skye, I mean, do you think the bipartisan nature of, you know, one of the strongest advocates for transparency. One of the sort of faithful partners is a Republican, this rare, as the congressman said, bipartisan push for transparency. How important is that in terms of making clear to the American people, who, again, really don't divide along partisan lines, that this is not a political issue, unlike so many other things in our politics? Yeah. I mean, this is the one thing I feel like everybody can unify behind. This was never a political issue at all. And it's a human issue. And so, you know, I do think this is a moment, and I talked about it in my speech earlier, was that it is a call for unity. It's a call that do not allow this president of the United States to continue to divide us. That's what they're trying to do. I mean, it was more apparent than ever in the Pam Bondi hearing when we were three feet away, and she wouldn't even acknowledge us. So, you know, I do call on everybody to unify behind this. We need you right now. This is for all survivors across the world. And I urge you as a brother, I mean, I lost my sister tragically this year and grab your daughters, grab your sisters, grab your brothers and your mothers and tell them you love them and tell them that you appreciate them being here. And if they're a survivor, give them an extra big hug and tell them that you're going to fight for them. Congressman, I mean, this is one of the parts of this that I have a heart as someone who worked in politics and now covers politics. I have a hard time understanding the dissonance. And when you read the reporting in NPR this morning that MS Now has matched that the FBI conducted four interviews in 2019 with a girl who accused Donald Trump of a sexual act and then a physical assault, and that that act was re-platformed in 2025 in a document created by the FBI. What are your thoughts about how much remains covered up, literally? Well, there's just so many different levels of evasion and distraction and redaction. I mean, so we go in. There are four computers for every single member of Congress. You've got to get in line. There are people essentially spying on us from the Department of Justice. And then when we push the button in the computer that's for non-redacted, redacted stuff comes up and we're told, oh, it was redacted when the Department of Justice received it. And this was the stuff that they revealed to us and disclosed. And there are three million documents more that they're withholding because they say they're duplicative. Of course, if they're duplicative, just release them. But we know from the survivors there's a lot of stuff in there that's not duplicative, including the notes of their original interviews when a number of them came forward. So, look, this is not a game. And we passed a federal law mandating a release of all of the documents without any redactions in order to save the perpetrators political embarrassment or humiliation. The one redaction that is compelled by law is of the names of the survivors. And Attorney General Bondi already failed in complying with that stipulation by Congress. So we need to get back to basics here, and I'm hoping that we're going to get a completely new agreement with them to allow our staff to participate in this process, to open up the number of computers that are available, to stop spying on members, and to stop treating this like some kind of game of hide-and-go-seek. It's an extraordinary part of the story that we'll continue to cover, that they are tracking your searches, as you're describing. Sky and Amanda, I'm so profoundly sorry for your loss and that your sister, whose courage, put a lot of what we are covering, a lot of what is becoming known into motion. And so I thank you and I thank her and I appreciate your time today. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having us. Thank you guys so much. I want to bring Claire and John back into this conversation and everything we just heard. I have to sneak in a quick break before I do that. also ahead for the three of us today is of course the state of the union but it's also four years since russia began its brutal invasion in ukraine the war donald trump said he'd end on day one is now entering its fifth year today tens of thousands have lost their lives millions more have had their lives upended but today ukraine's president zelensky says putin has not broken the ukrainian people where things stand where they go from here we'll cover all that later in the hour where Deadland White House continues after a quick break. Don't go anywhere. Start your day with the MS Now Daily Newsletter. Sharp insights from voices you trust Standout moments from your favorite shows And fresh perspectives from experts shaping the news Sign up at MS We're back with Claire and John. So, Claire, you know, Sky has been so incredible. And I think, you know, to listen to the women and believe the women is something that isn't difficult for anyone that I know, anyone that comes on this show. But I think if you're out there and you're wondering what this is about, to see Skye and Amanda, who lost our sister, who was one of the first and bravest people to speak out about this, to see these moments come full circle, it's just, it really, you know, we're talking about the last hour, how to make it simple, how to break it down. This moment is about what Trump's political crisis is about, in part, is that every human being can listen to what Skye just said. Hug the women, hug your sisters, hug your mom, hug the people you love, and buckle up, basically. Yeah, it's interesting because Virginia had a great deal of courage. And, you know, we talked about courage yesterday. You were talking with Robert De Niro about courage. And he said, you really don't have any option with this guy in the White House. And I would challenge the heads of law firms and the heads of corporations and people like Jeff Bezos and others to listen to Sky and realize the price he has paid. for his sister's courage. And then decide whether or not it's worth it what you're doing, you know, trashing the Washington Post and refusing to let them endorse who the editorial board wanted them to endorse. I mean, it's not like these guys don't have plenty of money. They got plenty of money. It's not a matter of the lifestyle they're going to live. It's a matter of them being afraid, afraid of this guy. And so I hope that what Sky represents goes further even than survivors. I hope it spreads to all of the people who are cowering in a corner somewhere, and a lot of them in Congress. You know, it's time to speak up. Our country is better than this. and it's time for them to show the kind of courage that his sister showed, that would be the biggest gift she could give our country, even more so than the exposure of Jeffrey Epstein and how evil he was to many, many, many girls. Yeah, I mean, it has been a slow, slow burn, but it does feel like there is courage spreading, or I won't say spreading, but sort of popping up in all sorts of different corners. We talked about it yesterday. the Olympic athletes, musical artists seem to lead the way in terms of celebrity. De Niro says in this interview, the question was, are you afraid? And he said, yeah, I got anxiety. It's not about people that find themselves unafraid or not at risk. These people have lots of risk and lots of fear, but they do the right thing anyway. Yeah, I don't want to, I mean, the Epstein survivors have exhibited genuine courage. there would be there is you know the hollywood celebrities speaking out i'm for it but i don't want to go so far as to call that courage they're they're not that it's not courage that is that is just doing the right thing and doing the right thing it doesn't require courage if jeff bezos it does it does sometimes i'm so but for some of these people are so they're economically insulated jeff bezos took a decision tomorrow and his net worth was cut in half he would be richer than almost everybody on planet Earth. It would not change his life in any meaningful way. Would it be courageous to lose half of his? No, that is not courage. That's doing a thing that is- So do we deduce that he's for this, for destroying the rule of law? I mean, I guess that's the question. I don't think he cares. And I think that many of these people have reached a point where they think that, this is a discussion you and I have all the time, right? where they do not look at their success and say, I owe the country. I owe the rule of law. I owe the sacrifices that people made and fought and died for this country. I owe. I owe. They say, I am special. I am brilliant. And everything that has come my way is because I am a genius, and I have been uniquely innovative, or I have been uniquely insightful, and I deserve all this, And I have now ascended to a place where whatever happens in this country, it will not affect me. I will fly above it. It will never grab me by the ankles and pull me down into the tar pit. And they may not be wrong about that. But I just I don't want to say that someone doing the right thing, standing up and saying the free enterprise system really matters, the rule of law really matters, supporting the Washington Post and not desecrating it, that that is an act of courage. That's an act of what we used to consider normal, a normal level of patriotism. And that is the right thing to ask of these plutocrats is a normal level of patriotism, because that is not courage. What these women have shown, who are the Epstein survivors, that is courage. That's courage. That is courage. That's courage. All right. They have a lot more to lose. You're right. Should we give it to them? All right. Thank you. John Heilman, thank you for being here today. When we come back, Russia's war in Ukraine today enters its fifth year with no sign of a peace deal in sight. And while the Ukrainian people remain resolute in the face of Putin's brutality, It's Donald Trump's fecklessness that critics say is making the situation worse. We'll get to all that after a short break. Don't go anywhere. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, follow along with the MSNOW newsletter, Project 47. You'll get weekly updates sent straight to your inbox with expert analysis on the administration's latest actions and how they're affecting the American people. The American people are basically telling the president that they are not OK with any of this. Sign up for the Project 47 newsletter at ms.now slash project 47. Exactly four years ago today, when Vladimir Putin launched what he thought would be a dayslong effort to seize the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, he was met with a staunch Ukrainian resistance and resilience that would endure throughout Russia's brutal, illegal, years-long assault. Through nightly attacks from Russian missiles, staggering losses of life on both sides, instability and lives upended for millions of Ukrainians, failed promises from Donald Trump to end the war, and still no peace deal or proof that Putin even wants peace. Today, President Vladimir Zelensky is celebrating Ukraine's fight and the immense courage and endurance of its people. Quote, looking back at the beginning of the invasion and reflecting on today, we have every right to say we have defended our independence. We have not lost our statehood. Putin has not achieved his goals. He has not broken Ukrainians. He has not won this war. I want to bring in Atlantic staff writer Ann Applebaum. A new season of her podcast, Autocracy in America, is out right now. It is must-listen material. Also joining us, international affairs analyst Michael McFaul is here. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. And with me at the table, Dr. Erwin Redlener, who co-founded the nonprofit Ukraine Children's Action Project in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And it's the reason that this stays on our radar and that we have all assembled today. Ambassador McFaul, just talk first about that fact that four years in, even a leader as strong and steady and powerful and moral and courageous and charismatic as Zelensky has been disappointed in his own ability to sustain the world's focus and attention on this brutal war. Well, I have two reactions. One, as an American, I'm embarrassed. I just was on a panel with four Ukrainians zooming in from Ukraine here at Stanford, and I'm embarrassed to be on a platform with Ukrainians fighting for their freedom, and we abandoned them. We used to give them military assistance and economic assistance. President Trump has decided that it's not in America's interest to do so, and he did that without getting anything from the Russians in return. So my first emotional reaction is embarrassment as an American. Second, the Europeans have stepped up, So let's acknowledge that. They have not abandoned Ukraine, and we should acknowledge that. But the third thing I would say, on this tragic, just horrific day, the beginning of the fifth year of this war, whoever thought we'd be talking about this, Nicole, today, but President Zelensky is right. Putin told us what his war objectives were, and he's failed at all of them. He sought to conquer all of Ukraine. He sent his tanks to Kiev, not Donetsk. Ukraine is an independent country today. Second, he wanted to denazify in his language. Ukraine, that is to overthrow Zelensky and hit the parliament. Zelensky is still president of Ukraine today. Third, he wanted to demilitarize Ukraine. It's the most militarized it's ever been. And fourth, he allegedly wanted to stop NATO. NATO now has two more powerful countries in the alliance, Sweden and Finland. And the relationship between NATO and Ukraine is deeper than ever before. So on all of his objectives, at incredible cost, 1.3 million casualties, Putin hasn't achieved any of his primary objectives. And Applebaum, this point about strengthening NATO, I don't know that anyone would have opted into the poli-sci experiment of taking America off the side of the good guys and the democracies on the planet. But if they wanted to, could you have even predicted that Europe would have stepped up the way it has? Many people didn't think it was possible and they didn't think it was going to happen. I think Europe has really changed both over the last four years of the war and even over the last year of the Trump presidency. I think the understanding that Russia was a direct threat, not just to Ukraine, but to all Europeans, that it was using sabotage, cyber warfare, other kinds of hybrid attacks, political influence campaigns to try to shape and undermine European democracies. I think that realization has now sunk in and most European, current European leaders understand that and know it. And I also think that the Trump administration's contradictory language and actions over the last year have also convinced Europeans both that they should stand by Ukraine and also that they need to think differently about their own defense and even their own economic relationship with the United States They been told pretty clearly by a range of American officials some nicely some less nicely that the United States is not interested in providing defenses to Europe in the way that it was. Maybe there's still a nuclear umbrella, maybe not. The implication is different depending on who's talking. And they're also seeing the United States backing and supporting far right and other European movements who are pro-Russian and who oppose European unity and European defense spending. So they're hearing this contradictory, uncertain message from the United States, and that has made them feel that we need to rely on our own firepower. We need to work much more closely with Ukraine, we need to understand what the Ukrainians are doing. The Ukrainians have really reinvented warfare over the last four years. They now have the most sophisticated army in the world at drone warfare. They've recreated, or not recreated, they created from scratch a drone industry that didn't exist before. Europeans are interested in being part of that, tapping into it, and eventually integrating Ukraine's military knowledge and expertise into their own. So yeah, we've seen a, I think that's maybe, aside from the changes inside Ukraine, which are momentous and spectacular, I think the change inside Europe over the last several years is also pretty remarkable. I mean, Ambassador McFaul and Anne Applebaum were getting at the tectonic shifts in Europe and in America. You've been so brilliant and focused on keeping us focused on the children and reminding everyone that four years is an eternity in the life of a child. You know, Nicole, we've seen a lot of children who have never been to a regular school and they're nine, 10 years old now. And it's devastating. You know, the Ukrainians are definitely, you know, we call them resilient. They're resilient. They're resolute. They're brave, they're innovative, they're all of that. But this is exhausting. And, you know, I, and the other thing I should point out, this may be called a war on the front lines in the east and south of Ukraine. But what's happening in the rest of Ukraine is a series of war crimes, just unabashed, unadulterated attacks on civilian infrastructure, making this the worst winter in modern memory in Ukraine, of course, without electricity for most of the day in many places without heat. It's a nightmare. We have kids going to school when they go to school in in shelters and a lot of times not going to school. The average school age child in Ukraine has missed about four thousand has spent about four thousand hours in shelters studying. I mean, it's just absolutely extraordinary. And I'm telling you, they're putting up with this and they didn't need to. And as Ambassador said, as Anne said, the United States should have been there with them. Why? Because Ukraine is on our front line defending our democracy, defending Europe's democracy. And they're doing a hell of a job at it. But here we are, like we've kind of abandoned them in some kind of a weird America first philosophy that is not even relevant. as Trump embarks on many foreign adventures. I have to sneak in a break. I'm going to ask all of you to stick around. We'll all be right back on the other side. We're all back. Ambassador McFaul, let me read what you wrote on Substack today. Quote, decades from now, when historians write a full accounting of this war, serious analytical books, or however we will consume knowledge then, will describe how Ukraine defeated Russia. I'm confident in that prediction because Putin has already failed to achieve any of his initial war aims and has very few options to reverse these outcomes, even if he decides to fight on for years. How and when does it end, in your view? What will they be analyzing? I don't know, Nicole. I wish I had an answer for that. Tragically, I predict it's going to go for a long time still because Putin thinks time's on our side. He thinks he has the Trump administration in his pocket. And therefore, he's going to keep fighting to try to conquer all of Donbass. And that could take years and maybe never happen. The Ukrainians are having successes as well. But I just want to say, we were talking about abandoning Ukraine. You haven't abandoned Ukraine. I want to thank you for that and how much time you have given to this horrible war over the last four years. And know that millions of Americans also haven't abandoned Ukraine. President Trump does not speak for all of us. Yes, he's the president of the United States, but he is out of touch with American society. I just had six meetings with various Ukrainian organizations and companies here in the Silicon Valley because they understand what Ann was talking about. If you want to reinvest in American defense, you better have partnerships with Ukrainians. And so the long haul, I'm optimistic. I hope that we can reverse this terrible policy that the Trump administration has. And in the long run, I know that Ukraine will win and Russia, Putin's Russia, will lose. I mean, Ann, this is the funny thing about this country's posture on Ukraine. The American people, including large swaths of Trump's own political coalition, although that is a shrinking coalition, so I don't know if this is still true, support Ukraine. I mean, large swaths of formerly normal Republicans, now MAGA, subservient members of Congress. I don't know that they adhere to policy anymore. They also supported Ukraine. I mean, what is the sort of perception in Ukraine and in Europe of where America even stands on the war? So it looks to Europeans and Ukrainians, although they're mostly wouldn't say it in public, and of course, to many Americans, as if Trump has effectively privatized American foreign policy. that the purpose of America's negotiations with Russia is to benefit private American companies. They're clearly doing business deals with Russia. We know that. Steve Whitcoff has said it. He said it in public. He said it in private. We know these negotiations are going on. We don't really know who benefits. Maybe it's his family or Trump's family. Maybe it's just friends of theirs or companies who are their donors or their associates. That seems to be the purpose of the policy in Ukraine. It's not to stop the war. It's not to accept that it would be convenient for them if the war ended, because then they could get on with business. But it's certainly not to help Ukrainians. It's not to build democracy. It's not to make Europe safe. It's to make profits for some U.S. companies whose names we don't yet know. Quick last word. Yeah, we need to do something. We need to understand why the United States of America, given what Andrew said, is responsible for negotiating a peace. It should be Europe. It's in Europe's interest to solve this and solve it fast, Nicole. And I think we cannot forget what's happening to Ukraine's children. At the end of the day, this is a massive humanitarian crisis. And thanks for exposing it again. Thank you for keeping this on our radar. There were many, many, many emails and calls to make sure that the state didn't go unnoticed and uncovered. I thank you, Ann, and Ambassador, for being here as well. You can visit ucap.help for more information on how to help Ukraine's kids. When we come back, Robert De Niro gets emotional talking about his love for our country and what his anger over what Donald Trump is doing to it means for all of us. I'll show you that moment from this week's episode of The Best People after a very short break. This was such a treat. My guest on this week's episode of the Best People podcast is an American icon, legendary Oscar award-winning actor, Robert De Niro. When we reflected on his career, which is a hard thing for him to let me talk to him about, he talked about the need for our country to be united, how important that is, and how much more it matters to him now at a time when it seems like our elected leaders are actively working to divide us. Watch. so I watched Sally Field name the nominees in 1981 at the Oscars the winner is Robert De Niro I forgot my lines so the director wrote them down for me and do you remember you get up there and you said I was afraid I forget my lines and you thank everybody yeah you're always about lifting up everybody around you everybody. Yeah, of course. Why is that? You have to. You have to lift people up. Why? You have to bring them together. Period. You can't divide people. You can't win that way. It's a no-win situation. and look what we have look who we have there it's almost like a destiny to have this this thing there destroying attempting to destroy this country and maybe not even understanding why so it's up to us to protect the country that we love you can watch the entire interview with robert de niro on this week's episode of the best people on YouTube. You just scan the QR code on your screen or download it wherever you get your podcasts. I promise you won't regret listening to an hour of Robert De Niro. A reminder to our viewers, in one hour from right now, I'll be back alongside Rachel Maddow and our primetime friends for full coverage of the State of the Union Address and the Democratic Response. Our special coverage starts at 7 p.m. Eastern. Thank you so much for letting us into your homes tonight. We are grateful. Subscribe to MS Now Premium on Apple Podcasts. For early access, ad-free listening, and bonus content to all of MS Now's original podcasts, including the chart-topping series The Best People with Nicole Wallace, Why Is This Happening, Main Justice, and more. Plus new episodes of all your favorite MS Now shows ad-free. And ad-free listening to all of Rachel Maddow's original series, including Rachel Maddow Presents Burn Order. Subscribe to MS Now Premium on Apple Podcasts.