From bad to awful: Trump’s four options in Iran

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The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:08

And I'm Rosie Blore. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

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Embezzlement, drunk Dr. Driving, loan fraud. You wouldn't believe how naughty some of Thailand's Buddhist monks are. We ask why getting rid of the monkhood's bad apples is so difficult.

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And you know how awkward it is when you eat a cherry and then have nowhere to put the stone. Well, such first world problems may never sour your day again. Gene Edited fruit is coming to a basket near you.

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But first, It remains hard to know what President Donald Trump is planning next in the Iran war. Even more so on Friday, he said America's military goals had largely been met. Strait of war moves, no problem, America doesn't use it. By the next day, back on the socials and on the caps lock with one of his signature deadlines, 48 hours for Iran to reopen the strait. Or America would obliterate Iran's power plants. Let's game this out. What options does Mr. Trump have to put an end to his war?

2:06

We've had another weekend of missiles flying in every direction across the Middle East.

2:48

Greg Karlstrom is a Middle east correspondent for the Economist.

2:54

There have been ongoing American and Israeli airstrikes in Iran, including in the capital. More than 2,000 civilians have been killed over the course of the war. According to human rights groups, Iran has continued to fire missiles at Israel. In the Gulf, two ballistic missiles got through Israel's interceptors over the weekend. They injured more than 160 people in towns in southern Israel. And then, of course, we have Donald Trump's threat, his ticking clock, 48 hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And if it doesn't, he has threatened to start attacking power plants inside of Iran.

2:57

And if what's happened with this war is anything to go by so far, Iran is unlikely to just bend over at this point.

3:34

I agree. Their whole strategy of this war has been to. To try and impose costs on their neighbors in the Gulf and on the world by closing the Strait of Hormuz, by throttling the flow of oil and gas and other vital commodities coming out of the Gulf. Iran sees that as its only path to try and bring this war to an end and also deter America and Israel from launching another war in the future. So I don't think they're going to back down. And that leaves Trump with a dilemma, not just around this threat that he's made, but the broader question of how do you proceed? I think he has four broad options for what to do going forward. He can talk, he can leave, he can continue the war, or he can escalate the war. But they're all, in various ways, problematic options.

3:42

So not a dilemma like a quadrillemma. Let's go through those one at a time. You say talk, leave, continue, escalate. What does talking look like?

4:33

I think it looks like the least likely option. There are still some diplomats and analysts who believe that there's an opportunity here for America and Iran to strike a deal. But I think it's very difficult to see how that happens in practice for a few reasons. First, the lack of trust on both sides. Iran has been attacked twice in the past year. While negotiating with America, the Americans have questions about who is actually in charge in Iran. The leadership is in disarray. So even if you sit with someone, does that person really speak on behalf of the regime? There's even a question about who's going to mediate these talks. Oman has done that in the past, but they've angered a lot of their allies over the past few weeks by sounding very sympathetic to Iran. And then even if you solve all of those problems and everyone gets together and they start talking, what will the deal be? America comes in with this maximalist set of demands. They want Iran to shut down large parts of its nuclear program, stop funding regional proxies. Iran has its own enormous wish list. It wants reparations for the war, closure of American military bases in the region, some kind of new arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz, they're extremely far apart and neither one is in the mood to make concessions right now, so talking doesn't sound likely.

4:43

What about leaving? Packing up and leaving?

6:04

It would be the Trumpiest option, right? You can imagine him getting up and giving a speech and saying, iran's military capabilities have been completely destroyed. Their navy is at the bottom of the se, their ballistic missile program is in ruins. This is the most decisive military victory since, you know, the Battle of Hastings, with a lot of embellishment. You can hear Trump giving that speech. He did it before he did it in June. The problem is twofold. First, I think domestic politics. Many Americans might not be convinced that America had actually won the war. So there's a political problem for him at home. The bigger issue, though, it's a substantive one in the region. If you end the war now, Iran will still have 400 plus kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Nobody quite knows where it is. And Iran would have a motivation to fashion that into a nuclear bomb. It would also still have a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. If you're a leader in the Gulf, that is your worst case scenario, enduring weeks of war, only for it to end with Iran still strangling this waterway that is so vital to your economies and your societies.

6:06

So option two, perhaps more plausible, but more unpleasant, third one was continuing the attrition.

7:12

Keep going as you are, stay the course for a few more weeks. You hear this argument from the Israelis. You hear it from hawks in Washington. They point to the number of daily missile and drone launches from Iran, which has fallen from about a thousand a day on the first day of the war to an average of less than 100 now. And they argue that if America and Israel keep up their strikes on Iran's military, that number can be pushed down further. You can do more and more damage to their capabilities. You also buy time to move more warships into the region. This is the pitch that they're making for staying the course. The problem is it may not work. And as long as Iran can keep up a relatively small volume of attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, it can effectively keep it closed.

7:19

Which leaves us then with escalation just ramping things up.

8:07

And that is where Trump is pointing us. That is where other officials were pointing over the weekend. Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary, in a television interview on Sunday, said the US Needs to escalate, to de escalate, and that could take numerous forms. It could be these attacks on power plants that Trump has been threatening a raid to Seize Iran's enriched uranium from those nuclear sites inside the country? Attempt to seize Kharg island, which is the home of Iran's main oil export terminal. He has different things that he can order, and in the next days or weeks, he'll have assets in place to do those things. The problem is they're all very risky. And then there's also the much greater risk to countries in the Gulf. Iran has said if America attacks our power plants, we are going to attack power plants and water desalination facilities in Gulf countries, which is a doomsday scenario for the Gulf. So there's a huge risk that escalation may actually just beget more escalation.

8:11

So as you said at the start, there are simply no good options for anyone. Really. What do you think is the most likely at this stage? Should we listen to the hawkish view of the weekend?

9:09

As I've probably said a dozen times over the past year on this podcast, I hesitate to predict what Trump is going to do because I'm not sure Trump knows what Trump is going to do. But the way I'm thinking about it is none of these options are guaranteed to end the war. Set aside negotiations, because I just think they're so implausible at the moment. If you declare victory, Iran might decide, you know what, the war isn't over. Actually, we're going to keep Hormuz closed for another month or two just to impose a cost on the world. In which case, not only is it not a victory, it's a humiliation for Trump if he stays the course for a few weeks, it might still be inconclusive and then we're back to the same impasse at some point in April. And if he escalates again, that's not an end in itself. You can escalate and still not win the war by doing that. So if you have a series of options, none of which necessarily will end the fighting, I tend to think that he is going to either press ahead or escalate. He's not going to declare victory and go home when there's no guarantee that declaring victory will actually finish the war.

9:18

Greg, thanks very much for your time as ever.

10:21

Thank you, Jason.

10:24

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11:12

Wat Rai Hing, just outside Bangkok, is a grand and serene temple. But in many ways it feels less like a monument and more like a town square.

11:55

Alize Jean Baptiste is one of our senior producers.

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There's a school inside the temple grounds. Along the riverbank at the back, people feed iridescent sharks and black spotted catfish. Children chase each other across a lush courtyard. For generations, temples like this one have been at the center of Thai Life. More than 90% of Thais identify as Buddhists. Alongside the nation and the monarchy, Buddhism is considered one of the three pillars of Thai society. But recently, a series of scandals has tarnished this revered institution's reputation. Last year, Wat Raihangs abbot was taken into custody after being accused of stealing over $9 million from temple accounts. Then news of an even bigger scandal broke. Several senior monks were allegedly blackmailed by a woman known as Ms. Gulf. According to police investigation, the woman had amassed around 80,000 photos and videos of monks in compromising positions. Scandals are not rare in the Thai monkhood, but there is a belief amongst some Thais that they've become more frequent lately. To understand why monks are misbehaving, you need to understand what life is like inside the monkhood. So has this practice changed at all? No, it's the same. It's been the same. It's still the same.

12:08

Traditional monks don't talk during the morning.

13:35

A few months ago at sunrise, I accompanied Venerable Satawat, a monk, and a temple volunteer called Big on an alms round.

13:39

The original was that the Buddha went back to visit his family at some point and his father was organizing a festival or something, and nobody told him his son had come to visit, so nobody formally invited him. And he can't just take food, so he just started walking around, just collecting from the local community, whatever people would give him. And that's kind of why they still kind of do this in the morning as part of that ritual. It's always done barefoot.

13:47

Oh, yeah. Oh, I didn't even notice. Every morning, Thai monks will Go out and collect offerings from the community. They'll walk for as long as it takes to fill their bat or begging bowl. Technically, monks are only allowed to eat what they're given in exchange for the food, they'll offer a blessing. Thai monks take up a vow of poverty. As part of this, they commit themselves to ascetic lives.

14:15

What you'll typically see is they won't even take like a bottle of water or something directly from you. They'll put out like a handkerchief and you put it on the handkerchief and they'll pull it in and take it. Just for most things. Yeah, like traditional monks, because they don't want it to be seen as like, giving you money and. Yeah, so there's always this arm's length with things.

14:44

But in effect, this arm's length attitude to money doesn't really work. In theory, temples are supposed to have a designated layperson managing their finances. In practice, that safeguard is inconsistent. New regulations came into effect last year. They include stricter financial reporting and a limit on how much money Templars may hold in cash. But there's no guarantee that these rules will be applied across Thailand's 40,000 or so temples. Tracking temple finances is extremely difficult, yet we know the sums involved are enormous. Devotees give money for many reasons. Big, the temple volunteer tells me there's a high demand for blessing ceremonies like

15:07

this ice cream shop opened up and at the grand opening, they had two months come by, or actually six months come by and bless the place. And these will stay on the doors forever.

15:51

People invite monks to bless anything they've purchased. A new house, a car, even a luxury handbag. Giving is also part of merit making, which is how Buddhists accumulate good karma to secure a better rebirth in the next life. Whether monks want it or not, money is constantly thrust upon them. The temptation is ever present, and not all men are prepared to deal with it.

15:59

Now, most Thai men, like 99% of Thai men, we become monks when we turn 20.

16:23

Big is referring to the practice of temporary ordination.

16:29

It's like a bar mitzvah. All Thai men, including the royal family. Everyone in the royal family, like, they still become a monk when they're 20.

16:33

Broadly speaking, monks in Thailand fall into two groups, some ordinary as a rite of passage for a short period of time, usually to earn good karma points for their families and themselves. Then there's career monks who commit their lives to the monkhood most of the time. They entered the order as novices when they were children.

16:42

They want food, they want education. And sometimes monastery is the Only way to provide these necessities to them.

17:00

Khem Tong Thongsa Kul Rongrong is a scholar at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. He specializes in the relationship between Buddhism and the Thai legal system.

17:09

So to start with, you don't get the brightest marble in the lot. You start with someone who's sorry but like, not very bright. But all of a sudden, once you enter into monk, they are given like vast authority, respect. All of a sudden, people just respect you and they would never challenge you or debate with you.

17:19

With few barriers to entry, the monkhood attracts men of all walks of life, including some who aren't necessarily following the path of the Buddha. Last August, police arrested 154 monks on charges ranging from drunk driving to organized crime. They reported that some of the people they detained were criminals who had sought ordination to evade authorities. The structural issues that have allowed monks to abuse their power clearly aren't new. So why can't they be solved?

17:46

Thai society is like a pyramid. You have the king at the top and everyone else dial on the pyramid. I mean, this pyramid is determined by karma. You are merits and the king, by default, the most perfect person. So monks is a more superior class and you don't question them. The only person historically that are able to purge them or purify them is the king.

18:17

King Wajir Alongkorn is constitutionally bound to protect Buddhism. And in some ways, he's really trying. The crown is believed to have been a driving force behind the recent crackdowns on misbehaving monks. But while arrests have increased, there has been little push for deep structural reform. That is partly because of how closely the monkhood is intertwined with Thailand's elite. A source told me that important conversations about the military or civil service promotions often happen in temples. Influential figures seeking to boost their karma frequently cultivate relationships with prominent monks. A thorough purge of the monkhood would expose these ties. And that is something powerful interests may prefer to avoid. For now, the monkhood has been able to brush off these scandals. But public trust is faltering. Without structural reform, its reputation will continue to erode.

18:55

Humans have spent thousands of years developing fruit to their liking, mostly through domestication.

20:08

Maria Lishik is one of our news editors.

20:14

Some of the fruit we eat today actually bear little resemblance to what we had before. Many are a lot sweeter, for example, bananas. Many are larger. The peaches that we have today are 16 times larger than their ancestors. And many of them no longer have seeds, for example, watermelons. But now advances in gene editing will allow fruits to be altered in new ways.

20:17

So, Maria, what exactly is a gene edited fruit?

20:41

So at the moment, we've got lots of genetically modified fruits, which involves mixing genes from different organisms to get the desired characteristics. But there's this new advanced technique that is becoming more and more popular. Crispr, which allows us to delete a single gene. So unlike GM crops before it, this means that we no longer have to add genes from foreign organisms. And that's been shown to put off many consumers before.

20:46

So if we've been cultivating fruit for thousands of years and evolving exactly the type of produce that we want, why do we now need to gene edit our fruit crispr?

21:15

Gene editing allows us to be a lot more precise and efficient, and through that, we can achieve changes that would have been difficult through conventional breeding. There's this company called pear wise which is currently working on seedless blackberries. They're not actually seedless, but the seeds are so small that you don't really notice them when you're eating them. They don't get in your teeth. They have just recently announced another joint venture with a fruit breeding company to develop stoneless cherries. There are other companies working on similar projects. For example, in California, Green venus is using crispr to develop non browning avocados. Scientists have also developed mushrooms and potatoes that oxidize more slowly. And with AI, scientists will be able to design fruits even more efficiently. For example, they will be able to predict how multiple genes and biochemical pathways, as well as environmental factors all come together to produce more complex traits. So, for example, chemicals which generate flavor

21:27

and are we already eating these? Are these fruits already in our supermarkets?

22:30

Not just yet. Very few of them are available on the market. Part of the reason is that it takes time to develop new generations of fruit from the altered seeds. If you gene edit the seed of an apple or a peach tree, it will take many years for it to grow large enough to bear fruit. The technology is actually most advanced for tomatoes and strawberries, which are crops that can grow from seed to fruit in a matter of a few months. But as more of these fruity creations go on sale, Companies think that more people will take to such fruit. And as a result, they will start producing more. Pairwise is hoping that with its new forms of blackberries and cherries, they will follow the success story of the seedless easy peel mandarins. When these became available year round In America around 2012, the citrus market increased by a third as consumers suddenly took to these easy peelers.

22:35

So it sounds like fruits designed in a lab are going to become the norm, then what's the regulation of them like?

23:32

Well, there isn't actually all that much clear regulation, which producers say is a big problem for them. Argentina was actually the first country to rule that gene edited products should be regulated in the same way as conventional ones, and the EU's Parliament and Council are looking at a similar move now. They reached a deal in December to simplify the marketing process that would allow producers to no longer have to label them differently from conventional fruits and vegetables, which would probably make consumers more open to buying more of them.

23:38

Maria, have you tried these designer fruits?

24:10

Not yet. They haven't come to a supermarket near me, but I am very much looking forward to them and to the next ones to hit the market. I'd love a maybe larger strawberries that you could bite into, like into an apple or perhaps an easy peel pineapple.

24:13

Maria, thank you very much.

24:31

Thank you, Rosie. It's been a pleasure.

24:33

That's all for this episode of the Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

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