From the studios of Farm Journal Broadcast, this is Ag Day. Farmers seem to be flying when it comes to soybean planting in the deep south, but they're keeping an eye on something else. That's kind of lower than our break-even price. Just how many workers have taken buyout offers from USDA? with the latest numbers as producers face another increase when it comes to inputs. If this thing does not reset, this is going to be an incredibly hard decision to make this summer. What you need to know about fertilizer prices right now on Ag Day. Ag Day is brought to you by Pioneer. Next level yields start with genetics proven to perform. Pioneer. Next level yields start here. I'm Clinton Griffiths. happening right now, fertilizer prices are once again on the rise, with one market watcher saying its fertilizer affordability index has turned negative. You see that index from RoboBank on your screen. Now from about November 2021 to just a short time ago, on the right end of the graph there, fertilizer was in the lighter blue, listed as affordable. But starting this month, forecasters to predict the index will turn not affordable in the darker blue. AgDays' Michelle Rook joins us. Michelle, what's behind the recent run-up? Is it tariff-related? Clinton, prices for nearly all fertilizer products are higher than they were last spring. Now, very little of the hike is related to tariffs. In fact, fertilizer market experts tell me it has more to do with the global supply and demand situation, especially for products like UAN. Regardless, it could mean less fertilizer will be applied by farmers in season. Fertilizer prices are up this spring with tight supplies of nearly all products. Market experts say potash prices are up 25% at around $320 per ton, not because of Canadian import tariffs as much as tariff fears and other fundamentals. Corn acres rising boosted potash demand. The fact that we had a very good fall run and emptied the system meant potash prices could go higher. The fact that potash run went clear up until about Christmas means that at the end of the day, we're looking at a situation where we just lost about a third of our winter fill period. He says there's also a shortage of UAN tied to global supply tightness, forcing farmers to use urea, which is pushing up those prices. You look at urea, you know, I was actually sitting here looking at our prices right now. The highest trade that we've seen so far in the Gulf of Mexico is a little bit over 500. We started the year in the 320, 330s. So we're up about $200 a ton there. Phosphate values were in the upper $500 per ton level to start the year and are now around $650 per ton, the second highest value relationship to corn since 2008. Linville says the Chinese government cut global phosphate exports to save product for their domestic production. Exports, the last normal Q1 that we saw, their exports were around 950,000 ton. This January, February, March, 111,000 tons. And there's fears that they're not going to improve significantly in Q2. A lot will depend on how much phosphate India buys as the world's largest importer. So while fertilizer prices seasonally hit lows in the summer as demand eases, the futures market is saying otherwise. Linville says this could cut corn side dress applications and yields. If this thing does not reset, this is going to be an incredibly hard decision to make this summer. And that could even carry over into this fall. I'm Michelle Rook reporting for Ag Day. All right, thanks, Michelle. President Trump is signaling new trade agreements could be announced as early as this week. Here are some key negotiations. President Trump has called for a fair and balanced deal with China. However, he confirmed he does not plan to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. With regards to India, the president has said talks were, quote, progressing very well. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent adding that the U.S. was very close to finalizing a deal. It's reported talks with Japan and South Korea are also moving forward. Now, President Trump has said, quote, we've completed up to 200 deals in recent interviews. More than 15,000 USDA employees have taken buyout offers. That's according to a report from Reuters. It says it saw a readout from a USDA briefing with congressional staff. The number represents about 15% of the agency's total workforce. It says more than 3,800 staff members decided to take the Trump administration up on its first deferred resignation program back in February, and another 11,000-plus signed contracts during the second round last month. It also reported more than 260 people across the entire federal government workforce have been fired taken retirement or are earmarked for termination or have accepted buyouts That is equal to about one of the entire federal civilian workforce Bayer is working in Iowa to try to get the state legislature to bring back a bill that would limit so-called failure-to-warn lawsuits. The ag company is fighting to keep glyphosate in production. Bayer officials say they met with Republican Governor Kim Reynolds along with leadership in the House and Senate late last month. It comes after the original legislation stalled in the House. Bayer argues the legislation is important in order to keep operations going at its plant in Muscatine. It produces 70 percent of the glyphosate in North America. Now, 400 people work at that plant. The bill would protect pesticide and herbicide manufacturers from claims their products don't disclose potential health risks as long as the labeling follows federal guidelines. Now, North Dakota passed similar protections into law earlier this month. Tyson Foods this week reporting lower than expected quarterly sales, but beat Wall Street expectations for second quarter profits. The company's chicken segment at restaurants and food services helped to offset higher beef prices due to lower U.S. cattle supplies. It earned $0.92 per share for the quarter. That compared with analysts' estimates of $0.82. The quarterly net sales were $13.7 billion, missing analysts' estimates of $13.14 billion. Sales in its beef segment were up almost 5%. The company's CEO saying, quote, beef is experiencing the most challenging market conditions we've ever seen, end quote. Meanwhile, Tyson says it has been proactively reformulating food products containing petroleum-based synthetic dyes. The company's CEO also saying most of the company's retail-branded products, including its chicken nuggets, do not contain those types of dyes. It says its products used in school nutrition programs also do not contain petroleum-based synthetic dyes. Now, you'll remember last month we told you that U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the agency plans to remove synthetic food dyes from the U.S. food supply by revoking authorizations of some and working with the industry to voluntarily remove others. Tyson says it plans to eliminate them from its production process by the end of this month. Crews are working to learn what sparked a large barn fire that killed several animals over the weekend in northern Indiana. The blaze breaking out at Tohulski Farms in Mill Creek. No one was hurt in the fire, but friends say nine 4-H animals perished, including pigs and goats. Several sheep were saved from the flames. It's reported the fire destroyed two barns. A fire marshal will conduct an investigation to determine the cause. Corn and soybeans were under pressure to start the week. dropping double digits on Monday. We'll look at the fundamentals and what to expect the rest of the week coming up next in Markets Now. It's reported McDonald's and Cargill have reached a settlement in regards to an antitrust lawsuit. The suit was filed in October of last year by McDonald's against Cargill, JBS, Swift Beef, National Beef Packing, and Tyson. The fast food giant claiming the companies conspired to fix beef prices and limit supplies. The settlement only impacts a lawsuit with regards to Cargill. McDonald's case still stands against the other defendants. The terms of the settlement have not been announced. Grains moving lower to start the week while cattle continue to break records. Hang Days' Michelle Rook has the very latest in markets now. Grains lower on Monday with cattle futures. More contract highs being scored there. Rich Nelson with Ellendale is back with analysis. Okay, let's talk about the pressure and the grains first of all. Is it technical or is this weather and fast planting? I do think this planting discussion is front and center for us right now, at least in the very short term. We do have about a 10-day window ahead here for the Midwest, which is mostly clear skies. So we'll wrap up a lot of planting here for what remains of discussions here this week. Also keep in mind here, we do have seasonals. Seasonals still give us about another week, week and a half of pressure typically for both corn and soybeans. On top of that, we have our discussion here with USDA's report here lined up next Monday. Certainly for the corn side, USDA's probably going to stay with that larger supply narrative for the new crop story as well. So if seasonals are part of the pressure for another week yet, how much lower do you think we have to go here, especially like an old crop corn where we're making some new lows for the move? Especially for that July contract. The only thing remaining for us now on the charts on the downside is really just those prior lows from just a few weeks ago. So that's a little concern here for us. Maybe we'll come near those prior lows these next few days. Also keep in mind regarding that seasonal discussion It not just a discussion regarding flat contracts of July or December corn It also the spreads Typically April 30th is the turning point for that July for the old crop new crop spreads And typically going until June 21st and June 17th typically those old crop spreads are hindrances and actually go the opposite way of this recent run So cattle futures making more all-time highs, cash at record levels. Is there anything in your mind that can slow this thing down? You know, at this point in time, we're actually not watching the news flow with a lot of interest. A main point for us right now is we do have a whole lot of factors which could suggest this market would be reined in, which could suggest this market is extremely overpriced. But bottom line for us is we always have to watch what the market itself wants to suggest. And right now, the market itself is making a clear message and has done so for quite a few weeks. and that is for right now until proved otherwise we do not have a story yet suggesting this is a stopping point for us thanks so much rich nelson with ellendale we'll have more ag day coming up to talk to rich nelson one-on-one call 800-262-7538 watch markets now with michelle rook on the farm journal youtube channel keeping you updated throughout the day on the markets at the open midday and close Find out what moved the markets today and what to expect the market to do next. The big story this week is that overall blocking pattern, the Omega Block, in and across the United States. See that upper-level low churning, and around it is where you have not only the rain, but also the cloud cover. That's going to be moving off to the east, breaking down by the middle part of the week, but another low pressure system now trying to work from the west to the east. So we don't go completely dry, but in between this upper level low here and there in between is where we will have quiet conditions Tuesday, Wednesday, also a little bit into Thursday. You can see a lot of this at the surface starts to fizzle out. Now notice this line back up here towards Montana and the Dakotas. That is the next ridge trying to take shape. If that anchors in over the United States, we're looking at a stretch of dry and above average temperatures. And that's where we get into a more traditional springtime pattern with a ridge and trough interplay. There's the jet stream coming up on Tuesday and into Wednesday. There's our low and moving on to the north and northeast. A surface, a much weaker surface low down here towards Oklahoma, but also into Missouri with that ridge high pressure trying to form. So by Friday and Saturday, there's your ridge developing over parts of Colorado, Texas, and also into Oklahoma, and a trough sinking down here to the south. Not a lot of widespread severe weather in this pattern. It's more nuisance showers as we try to get that seed down in the fields. Very tough to go ahead and say whether or not we'll see light to moderate showers or go completely dry in this pattern. By Monday of next week, next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, quiet weather setting up across good portions of the United States, nearly two-thirds as you've got a ridge over the Midwest, but also extending back over here towards the west, and the trough starting to dig next Monday. So that's at least three days or so before that energy can move off to the east. Here's a look at the jet stream on next Monday. Yokely, Tennessee, partly cloudy, high of 75 degrees. Loma, Montana, partly cloudy, high of 64, low of 39. Eckerman, Mississippi, mostly cloudy, high of 77. How is the global dairy market weathering the tariffs? We have an update. And as Canada's prime minister travels to Washington, a look at what that could mean for the dairy industry. Next. Stream your favorite Farm Journal programs, podcasts, and personalities with the new Farm Journal TV app. You'll enjoy on-demand access to the agriculture information you need from the sources you trust. It's all at your fingertips and on your schedule anytime, anywhere. Happening today, new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington. It will be the first meeting between the two since Carney won the post in the April 28th election. And one ag market that may be talked about between those two is the dairy industry. Dairyherd.com says there's a lot of shared interest between the two countries when it comes to dairy, since Canada has slapped a 200% tariff on U.S. dairy exports for years. We talked with Sean Haney, the founder of Real Agriculture and host of Real Ag Radio in Canada, about the industry. Dairy is going to be really fascinating. And one of the outcomes of the election is the fact that the Liberals are going to need some support from some of the other parties. That's either going to come from the NDP or it's going to come from the Bloc. The Bloc is based in Quebec. Where is the dairy lobby the strongest? Well, it's in Quebec. And so it going to be really fascinating to see where they go on dairy negotiations Does Canada you know is there talk about increased market access Or what we heard from U farm groups which is, hey, we're just looking for Canada to meet the U.S. definition of those TRQ allocations. That may be a little bit more difficult just to give that up, given the fact they may need support out of Quebec. And the Liberals did very well on this election in Quebec this year. Now, Haney says he hopes both countries can come to the table and realize that united North America is stronger than one divided. A lot is at play right now when it comes to the global dairy market. First, there are the impacts of tariffs, which initially rattled the cheese markets, driving prices down. But despite those initial setbacks, the U.S. remained a competitive value buy in the global cheese market. Market watchers say this competitiveness has fueled export orders, especially in the second and third quarters, which impacted available cheese stocks and drove up prices in futures. Now, Matt Tranel, keeping a close eye on the cheese market for Ever.ag, discussing it recently with Agritalk's Chip Flooring. I mean, we were at $1.60, $1.65. The world market was $2.25 to $2.40. New Zealand was kind of that $2.25 market. Europe was that $2.40 market. And when you have a discount such as that, yeah, you're going to find some values. When we looked at that early April tariff talk, We did leave Mexico out of the equation. Mexico's always been kind of our biggest buyer. And then we also saw right off the bat some of our countries that we do a lot of business with, Japan, South Korea. They opted for some negotiation over retaliation. And so, yeah, you just saw a lot of people come to the table and say that that's really just too cheap of cheese compared to the world. Right now, Mexico is the number one importer of U.S. dairy products. Yeah, it's really not even close, to be honest. I know on the most recent export data, Mexico bought 33 million pounds of cheese out of the 99 million pounds of cheese that we exported as a whole. So a third. And in different times, they're above 33%. So they are major. They buy a significant amount of our powder as well. and so we need to keep them happy from a dairy front. In 2022, the U.S. Dairy Export Council says Mexico became the first $2 billion U.S. dairy export market. Last year, U.S. dairy exports reached $8.2 billion overall, marking the industry's second highest level ever. In the South, planting is going quickly. We'll see how farmers are progressing with soybeans in Louisiana next. Louisiana soybean planting is running well ahead of schedule mainly because of good weather and partly because this year's crop is smaller. LSU AgCenter reporter Craig Gautreaux has a story from northeast Louisiana. Soybean planting is wrapping up in Louisiana much earlier than usual. The only fields left are isolated fields waiting to dry and those fields still covered with wheat. 80% of the crop was planted by the end of April, which is the optimal window for Louisiana growers. We could have the majority of our crop, almost all of our crop, planted in that window. So if we have good weather throughout the season, we could be looking at a really good yield potential. Soybeans are typically Louisiana's largest agronomic crop in terms of acreage, and it is expected to be the largest in 2025. This year's crop will be slightly smaller. We did drop a little bit in soybean. The acreage in Louisiana, approximately 4% drop from last year. We are just a little bit over a million acres. While acreage is down slightly, prices are significantly lower. Prices are barely more than $10 a bushel, which is not enough to cover production costs. That's kind of lower than our break-even price, so definitely need the price per bushel to go up to help the farmers. Another hurdle for farmers is the herbicide dicamba is no longer labeled for use in soybeans. Farmers will have to find another tool to control the weeds in their fields. If the weeds are competing for space and moisture and nutrients and even shading over the soybean, I mean, it pretty much will destroy the yield potential. Another obstacle for farmers is that China is one of the biggest buyers of U.S. soybeans and the ongoing tariff issues could decrease exports. With the LSU AgCenter, this is Craig Gautreaux reporting. Alright, thanks for the update Craig, and that's all the time we have. From all of us here at Ag Day, I'm Clinton Griffiths. Have a great week out in farm country.
