Bulwark Takes

Trump’s Senate Nightmare Is Starting Early

12 min
May 6, 202625 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

The episode discusses Trump's $1 billion ballroom security funding hidden in a Republican reconciliation bill, breaking his promise of private funding, while analyzing Democratic Senate prospects and the emerging 'Epstein class' corruption narrative against Republicans.

Insights
  • Trump's decision-making lacks internal checks; he's surrounded by sycophants who affirm rather than challenge, leading to vanity projects disconnected from public priorities
  • Democrats are effectively weaponizing a holistic corruption narrative ('Epstein class') that connects Trump family enrichment, cabinet conflicts of interest, and policy failures
  • Senate Democrats have unexpected momentum in traditionally red states (Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa) driven by small-dollar donor enthusiasm and candidate fundraising strength
  • Legal challenges to Trump's construction projects are creating precedent that constrains future executive overreach on federal property
  • Republicans face political vulnerability voting unanimously for policies with single-digit public support while economic anxiety dominates voter concerns
Trends
Executive branch operating without institutional guardrails or internal dissent mechanismsCorruption and self-enrichment emerging as primary Democratic campaign messaging over policy platformsSmall-dollar fundraising as leading indicator of grassroots Democratic enthusiasm in swing/red statesJudicial intervention limiting executive construction authority on federal propertyDisconnect between Republican legislative priorities and public economic concerns creating political exposureVanity infrastructure projects competing with taxpayer economic relief in budget allocationDemocratic focus on Trump family financial conflicts as unifying campaign narrative
Topics
Trump Ballroom Security FundingReconciliation Bill Process and Republican StrategyDemocratic Senate Pickup OpportunitiesEpstein Class Corruption NarrativeTrump Administration Cabinet DynamicsEast Wing Demolition and Federal Property DisputesEast Potomac Golf Course RenovationSmall-Dollar Donor Fundraising TrendsSherrod Brown Senate RacePublic Opinion on Economic PolicyExecutive Branch AccountabilityJudicial Challenges to Construction ProjectsTrump Family Business Conflicts of InterestDemocratic Campaign Strategy 2024Congressional Appropriations Process
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People
Sam Stein
Primary analyst discussing Trump's ballroom funding, reconciliation bill mechanics, and Democratic Senate strategy
Dan Kennanin
Discusses Democratic Senate prospects, fundraising trends, and campaign messaging strategy
Basil Schmeichel
Provides analysis on Democratic policy platform risks and corruption narrative effectiveness
Nicole Wallace
Sam Stein appeared on her show to discuss ballroom funding and Sherrod Brown's Senate race
Sarah Longwell
Praised for insights on the episode topic; noted as Sam Stein's boss
Lauren Egan
Conducting reporting on Democratic Senate strategist perspectives and candidate fundraising
Sherrod Brown
Ohio Senate candidate weaponizing Epstein-class attacks against opponent's donor relationships
Lindsey Graham
Previously introduced legislation to appropriate $400 million in congressional funds for ballroom
Rick Scott
Referenced for 2022 midterm platform that became Democratic attack fodder on Social Security
John Fetterman
Described as unpredictable political liability for Democratic Senate control prospects
Quotes
"Donald Trump, especially in the second term, is not getting any conflicting information into his ecosystem. He's surrounded by people in the cabinet who are largely sycophantic."
Sam Stein
"Every time the press tries to figure out what sophisticated secret version of 3D chess Trump is playing, he's just doing some dumb shit on his phone."
Sarah Longwell (paraphrased by Sam Stein)
"The contrast Democrats are really putting together is not just that it's up or down. It's that there's a corruption here happening, that the administration is covering things up, that they are enriching themselves."
Sam Stein
"At a time when 15 percent of Americans think the economy is getting better, the Republicans are marching in lockstep with something that has 9 percent support from the public."
Host
"It started at $200 million, went to $300 million, went to $400 million. Now it's $1 billion on top of whatever it costs to construct the ballroom itself."
Sam Stein
Full Transcript
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And we touched on how these two things are interrelated a little bit. Culture of corruption charges against Republicans. They're covering stuff up and they're enriching themselves and their wealthy donors. It was a really meaty conversation. I think you're going to enjoy it. Take a look at it. Let me know what you think. And as always, subscribe to The Bulwark where you get great Bulwark takes like this. And of course, if you're in the San Diego or LA area, come to our live shows, May 20th, May 21st. You can get tickets right now at thebulwark.com slash events. Thanks for listening. This ad is brought to you by Aura Frames. Aura Frames is a great upgrade from your typical Mother's Day flowers. Trust me, I know this. I got an Aura Frame from my mother-in-law last Mother's Day. She loved it. That's because flowers, they're nice, but they only last a few days. The perfect gift is one that lasts a lifetime, and that gift is Aura Frames. 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Donald Trump stiffing the American taxpayer amid widespread anger and fury over his failure to address their economic concerns is where we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. Managing editor of The Bulwark and contributor Sam Stein is here. Also joining us, former Battleground States director for the Harris campaign and Democratic strategist Dan Kennanin is back And with me at the table Democratic strategist and Columbia University professor political analyst Basil Schmeichel is here Sam how did this billion dollars end up in the bill in the first place Well, so there is a reconciliation bill that congressional Republicans are pushing now and for people who don't want to get too in the weeds, reconciliation bill is a budgetary matter that can pass just with a party-line vote, so you can stuff any budgetary matter into it, and you can pass it with 50 Republicans in the Senate, so it becomes a grab bag. Last night, the Senate Judiciary Republicans put forth their portion of that bill, and it included tens of billions of dollars for ICE, for Customs and Border Patrol, and then tucked in there was this $1 billion expenditure. It was put in a bunch of legalese terms, but basically it's for security for the ballroom. And to your point, this was never as advertised. It wasn't that Donald Trump went up there and said, hey, we're going to have this ballroom. It's going to be paid for. And oh, by the way, the security components of the ballroom, that you're going to have to cover from taxpayer funds. He never said that. He said it was going to be fully paid for by private donations or money from his own pocket. It started at $200 million, went to $300 million, went to $400 million. At one point, Lindsey Graham, you might recall, introduced legislation that would have had Congress appropriate funds for about $400 million. Now it's $1 billion on top of whatever it costs to construct the ballroom itself. That will be paid for by taxpayer funds. I will just add one quick note. Part of the reconciliation process allows members of the opposing party to call votes, to strip out various components of the bill. And so Democrats will have the opportunity to say, hey, we're going to have an up and down vote on this $1 billion specifically. And that will put every Republican on the record as voting for or against funding the ballroom at a price tag of one billion dollars. Who's running the White House in terms of guarding against barreling 100 miles an hour toward that for which 9 percent of the public support, Sam? That's a great question. And I was talking about this with some colleagues. I think what's happening here, and I have no, like, insight reporting on it, but I think what's happening here is that Donald Trump, especially in the second term, is not getting any conflicting information into his ecosystem. He's surrounded by people in the cabinet who are largely sycophantic. You see it all the time when they have these cabinet meetings and they praise him as if he's the second coming. He probably watches only news media that affirms his priors. And when he does, he'll lash out on Truth Social. So you see it every now and then when he posts something going after a random cable commentator. But by and large, I think he just gets people who tell him how great he is. And then that kind of supplements into him pursuing policies that are really vanity projects. So the ballroom is the biggest personification of this, right? One billion dollars. He thinks, whatever. It's great. We'll have events here. We don have to do the White House Correspondents Dinner at the Washington Hilton But it also the reflecting pool and the golf courses at East Potomac in this arch And it raises the question why is he doing all of this right Is it vanity Probably a lot of it is. But what is the point of building all this type of stuff if you're just going to end up leaving Washington, D.C.? Is it a legacy matter or is it something larger that we're not really accurately describing? I mean, I guess what I would push back and say, Dan, is that every time the press tries to figure out what sophisticated secret version of 3D chess Trump is playing, he's just doing some dumb shit on his phone. Sam, what's the legal status? Like, do they have, you know, anyone that's renovated in their own home, like, do they have all the deliveries from Home Depot or wherever the stuff's coming? Like, are they ready to build and just waiting for the taxpayers to put the bill? Like, what is standing where the regal East Wing once was? Well, first of all, I'd be remiss not to say that Sarah Longwell, wow, what insight, what brilliance, incredible stuff. You should have her on all the time. An amazing colleague. Secondly, I will say in terms of the legal status, there's been challenges to this because they did not follow a proper procedure. You're supposed to get clearance for this, environmental reviews. Congress is supposed to have some appropriations of funds. And I'll get back to it in a second. As things stand now, they've demolished the East Wing, and it's just sort of like a big gaping hole. And this has affected a lot of different projects around D.C. So I mentioned the East Potomac Golf renovation. There was a report over the weekend that they were just going to go ahead and renovate the courses. And the National Links, which is fighting them, which has control of the courses now, went to court to get an injunction to say you cannot do this. And the judge in that case specifically referenced what is happening in the East Wing to basically say you can't touch anything more than 10 trees. The judge said you can't do what you did in the bottom, which is, you know, bulldoze everything and then decide, oh, we'll wait for the actual court hearing after the fact. So this has affected how judges are thinking about this stuff around the city. Now, with respect to the reconciliation bill, this is why this is somewhat important, which is because Congress, through this reconciliation bill, has decided that it is going to appropriate a billion dollars for some portion of the ballroom, whether it's security or otherwise. The White House is now pointing to that and saying, look, we're getting congressional authorization for the construction. Congress is going to sign off on this thing. So there is a legal component that matters to this reconciliation bill with respect to how they go forward with the ballroom construction. It's amazing. At a time when 15 percent of Americans think the economy is getting better, the Republicans are marching in lockstep with something that has 9 percent support from the public. It's remarkable. Sam, what is your latest reporting on how the Senate is looking for Democrats? Oh much better My colleague Lauren Egan has been talking to strategists nonstop about this I mean six months ago it was sort of a pipe dream that they could win the seats needed to get there But increasingly, the operatives in the party are emboldened by what they see, not just in the polling data, but if you look at the fundraising data, the candidates who are on the ballot, Senate candidates, are raising insane amounts of money from a huge influx of small-dollar donors, which is a real indication of enthusiasm, right? But it's in states that maybe would have seemed unlikely not so long ago. Ohio is one of them, obviously. Texas can increasingly. Alaska. Iowa. And so, look, they have to win four seats. It's challenging. It's not impossible. And even with four, you have to contend with the fact that John Fetterman is a live wire act continuously for the party. But it's not impossible at this point in time. And in fact, the betting markets seem to treat it as a likelihood at this juncture. Let me just add one thing about the Epstein class, because I do think this relates not just to this conversation about the Senate, but also to a prior conversation about the ballroom, which is that the contrast Democrats are really putting together, which I think is effective, is not just that it's up or down. It's that there's a corruption here happening, that the administration is covering things up, that they are enriching themselves. The Trump family is getting rich through all these ventures, these crypto schemes and these contracts. And the only one that's really benefiting from this presidency are the family members and the family members, the cabinet members. And that's the Epstein class. And that's why this holistic charge works. As to Basil's point, yeah, I mean, it would be beneficial probably for Democrats to put together some sort of policy platform that could take their congressional approval higher and make voters more excited about the prospects of them taking over. But it does come with a real risk. And I think it's important to talk about that, which is you want this election to be about Donald Trump. You want this election to be about whether the Epstein class, quote unquote, is in charge. And if you put out a platform like that, you do change the conversation. Doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. But we all can remember when Rick Scott, for instance, did this in the last midterm cycle. It gave Democrats a lot of fodder to go on and say, hey, they're going to try to cut your Social Security. So there are real risks. It's so interesting that you mentioned corruption. I mean, I think one of the things that gets lost from the surprise, the turnout results of the Orban race is that, yes, he was talking about economic issues. And yes, they participated. And at 71 percent, it was too big to deny. But they also ran against his corruption. And one of the first things that they announced after the election was actually an investigation into CPAC in this country. So how Hungarian taxpayers' money ended up in the coffers of CPAC. So it is interesting how all those things are starting to connect. Sam Stein, we should also point out that your glowing comments about Sarah Longwell, I agree with them, but she also happens to be your boss. So I'll make sure she saw those. Dan Cannon, it's great to have you back. It's always great to start off with you. Thank you all so much.