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We've got an abbreviated edition of our usual Monday podcast for you know those of you on long road trips with your family and you want to disassociate and just hang out with us instead or people that just want to celebrate the holiday by paying attention to our insane news cycle. And since it's Monday I'm here with Bill Crystal. How are you doing Bill? Fine. How are you Tim? I am doing well. I'm doing well. All things considered. Why don't we just get to it here. A lot of updates in the state of play with regards to Iran since we were last together on Friday. On Saturday Trump announced that we're basically on the cusp of a deal. A deal is essentially done 95% there. A lot of belly who a lot of back patting among Trump himself but his allies the pro war allies were pretty horrified by the rumors coming out about the deal. And so since then things have started to unwind a little bit on Sunday there's a massive spin effort to push it there would be dust for dollars. There would be no dollars without nuclear dust. They were calling all their allies making sure they knew that and that there would be no toll on the straight. And this morning Monday Iran is saying that they aren't charging a toll on the straight but they are charging environmental protection fee which shows that the Iranians have learned a lot from the liberal bureaucratic nomenclature of the West. So anyway that's the state of play we're at now Bill. What's your sense of things? Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that and are twisting the knife a little but also I think as you can see with the environmental fee thing giving him enough cover so that Trump will end up with a deal that'll be murky more even than these deals often are. And we'll see what really happens in terms of the nuclear material in terms of opening the straight. But I think we're heading towards I mean we've been heading towards the deal for a while. I think some of us have thought it was going to happen for a long long time. Trump has basically announced he wants a deal. I mean the degree to which he can bluster a little bit and put up memes of I don't know us bombing Iran or decimating places or Iran with an American flag but at the end of the day he wants out and I guess he'll get out. I think he will get out. It's interesting I noticed you were posting about this over the weekend. We had a initial quite angry reaction from the Mark Levin's of the world, Lindsey Graham, FDD, the major backers of the Trump war effort who felt like this was basically a disaster to betrayal. As the hours go on we're going through the same thing that happened after every Trump disaster, January 6th etc. Where they all start to look at the bright side, spin things for Trump. What's your sense of that development? Is he going to be able to get people to circle the wagons like usual or is there something different about the Iran situation? If you were a serious Iran hawk let's say who was going along with this not because you were loyal to Trump but because you believed in certain things and certain outcomes were important you're not getting any of those outcomes really. You're not getting regime change in Iran or liberation for the Iranian people. Obviously Trump gave up on that very early. You're not getting a clear and unambiguous resolution of the nuclear issue which Trump sort of defaulted to as this rationale for the war. If you're more of a traditional international order type of internationalist you're not getting I don't think clarity on passage through the straight. You're not getting any kind of emphatic reiteration of a right to these international waters so forth. You're getting Iran probably sort of as you just said no, no toll but maybe some environmental fees and plus reminding everyone at least Satou Vosche that they do have the ability to close the thing if they want to and it might be a good idea for some governments to negotiate with them to make sure their ships get through. So you're not getting any of the things you really care about the nuclear issue, the straight or the fate of the Iranian regime. So if you're an honest hawk you need to say this deal is a defeat for the US. You might still say as we've said I think that better a defeat that doesn't risk more than an escalation that risks US lives and the energy infrastructure and the Gulf and a million other things but you've got to say it's the whole things but a defeat. And what strikes me is that as you say on what it may be Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning some of the Trump supporting hawks were being honest hawks. I predicted that and I think I still predict that by tomorrow the Trump supporting hawks will 80% be Trump supporters and they'll abandon their actual principled objections to that and abandon but will certainly mute their objections to this deal and also will put a happy face on it, don't you think? Yeah, I just don't know that it's going to be quite as vociferous and quite as all in lockstep as it has been in the past for a couple of reasons because you have A, the dobs at the end of the hawk, the America first crowd that I think will probably want to crow that they were right about all of this. Also you'll have some wing within the Trump coalition that will not be trying to spin this shit sandwich into a chocolate cake. I think that they're going to just say what they have said throughout the whole time. And then I think it will be a little bit of a mix among the hawks. This goes back to kind of the big theme of last week where Trump wins his revenge tour in these primaries of Cassidy Cornyn and Massie but maybe loses the broader battle because he angers enough of the old school Republicans that they're not as excited to get in line. And then you've seen this with Tillis over the weekend. He was on TV really bashing Trump. So that kind of crowd, McConnell, Tillis, to the extent that I don't know how important they are really, but I do think there'll be some on the hawk wing also that criticizes them. So, you know, Lindsey Graham is going to come around and say whatever Trump wants that he can still get invited into the golf cart. You know, I wrote a book about that. So he'll come around. But I do think that there are some fractures that was caused by this that were significant. And I think part of the continued version of that is the straight and the cost of gas. You know, prices are down to date about 90 bucks a barrel, which is on the high end of acceptable, I guess, but it could still go back up again. Who knows how long this goes, this period of negotiation that we're still in, getting that last so-called 5%. The New York Times is a big piece this morning, even if a deal is finalized, the pre-war status quo and upward up 130 ships transited straight each day would be weeks or even months away. Like it just, there's a lot of logistical issues that still need to be ironed out. And gas prices are still really high. I think there's going to be persistent negative impacts from the second order effects that are going to create problems for a while. And I think that also makes it a little harder for him to just get everybody to get on board. After January 6, nobody, anybody who's living their life in America, it wasn't really experiencing any negative impacts of January 6. It was this kind of attack on the democracy, this esoteric. People are still going to be feeling negative impacts here. So I do think that's different. No, I think that's an important point. And I also think this isn't going to be a real deal that's going to finalize things. And then we could all go back to normal, maybe with somewhat higher gas prices, just because they still, that's the after effect, as you say, of the straight haven't been closed all this time. It's going to be murky and they're going to be, the Iranians are going to want to flex their muscles. So six weeks from now, after everything is settled down, the Iranians will deny passage to someone or find an excuse to do something to remind people that they have control. So I agree. It doesn't go back to normal. The prices don't go down to where they were because of the risk factor in the straight. The nuclear negotiations are totally, so far as one could tell, unsettled. Could be hiccups or more than hiccups there. One can't credibly, I don't think, threaten the use of force much, maybe a bombing or something, but he keeps on going to move troops back there after this thing gets sort of resolved here in the next few days, I think. So that leverage that he has had goes away. Israel, I guess, retains that leverage. It doesn't go away, but Israel retains that leverage. I'm very struck by one thing. Trump's trying to sell the deal or sweeten the deal by invoking, I don't know where, honestly, the Abraham Accords, which are like entirely different thing, which suddenly it's like, you know what, this is kind of part of... He knows the Abraham Accords are vaguely popular here to the degree people know what they are, and regarded vaguely as successful, though one could have a separate discussion about if they actually lessened war or tensions or instability in the Middle East. But anyway, they were okay and seemed like a success. So he's desperately trying... I'm going to get those other nations to be part... If it aren't yet part of the Abraham Accords, be part of those Accords. We'll see. Saudi Arabia's not going to join the Abraham Accords without a resolution, more of a resolution of the Palestinian issue. They've been totally clear about that. Egypt has its own peace treaty with Israel. They don't feel like they need to be told to be part of some Accord with a bunch of Gulf states. I mean, I'm pretty dubious that any of them... Pakistan, why is Pakistan... Do we really... Pakistan doesn't recognize Israel? Will Pakistan as a favor to Trump, who's now their buddy and maybe just a favor to China in turn, which could get favors from Trump, recognize Israel conceivably or join the quote, join whatever that means even. It's not like the Abraham Accords are like, they don't. What are you joining? What do you mean? They could say they're well-disposed to them and want to have talks about it? Sure. So there might be a little bit of coddling of Trump here, but it is striking. That's like someone told them, remember those Abraham Accords? That's kind of one of your achievements. And so suddenly it's... And then at the end, and didn't need one of those two social posts saying, you know what? It'd be good if Iran joined the Abraham Accords. You could only imagine the faces of Gulf states in Israel at that point. I mean, on the Israel side of it, and it seems like this has attempted a pot-sweetener for them for Trump because what I didn't mention was over the weekend reports were that BB and folks in Israel were unhappy with the contours of the deal. And so that's like a wild card in the situation. Obviously, Israel has more cute security concerns than we do in this situation. So maybe something might come up that would make Israel decide that they do want to attack Lebanon again or Iran again for that matter and how that impacts the deal. And that's certainly possible in a wild card. But the reporting in Abraham Accord, I guess Trump was on a call with all his new friends, Pakistan, Qatar, UAE, Saudi, and kind of made this pronouncement last night. And one of the reports from an Israeli news source said that the ultimatum was met with literal silence. The Arab leaders were so stunned by the audacity of the request that Trump had to break the silence himself. So we'll see what happens with that. One thing I've been noticing as I get older is that I'll wake up after a pretty casual night of drinking, maybe one or two glasses of wine and still feel not the best the next day. I feel like even if I do everything right, have enough to eat, drink water, get to bed, you know, just still not 100 the next day. But friends, cheers health are here to help with their restore after alcohol aid. It helps you sleep better after a couple of drinks and you get back to normal the next day. 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Our listeners are getting 20% off their entire order by using code the bull work at cheershealth.com. Just head to cheershealth.com and use code the bull work for 20% off. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. Just for kicks on the spin of all this. I saw this video going around this weekend. I want to share it because people that listen to this show, I mean, how often do we put on the hair shirt? Bill and you and I are very, very happy to discuss our mistakes and bad predictions, you know, the policy of radical candor. This gives you a little insight into what is happening inside the, you know, maga propaganda sphere. This is a guy with a relatively popular podcast named Dave Rubin and someone put together a highlight reel of his predictions and comments on the war over the course of the last few months. And I think it tells us a little bit about the question of whether Trump will have people still spinning for him after this deal is done. Let's listen to Dave Rubin's take on the war. Everything that the media is now going to say about Iran is going to close the straight of Hormuz and energy prices are going to go crazy. And all these, none of this is going to come to pass. Gas prices are coming down and will continue to come down. If the United States wants to keep the straight of Hormuz open, which it does and Donald Trump said, we'll escort ships through if we have to, it's going to stay open. This is the leader of the Iranian opposition. He has been in exile. His name is Reza Pallavi. We have shown you videos before. He's the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran. And he likely is the next leader of Iran. For decades, they will study how this incredible war took place. That's we are hitting critical infrastructure. We are damaging the regime. So hopefully the people will be able to take over their country. There's a whole nother minute of it, but I think you get the gist. I just miss after, miss after miss. And it is it's kind of remarkable that people still tune back in, I guess, for a show like that. But he has nice suit jackets. I wonder what you'll say that I don't follow him to be honest. But I wonder what you'll say this week. Do you think he is he one who will say this didn't work out? Or is he one who was no. OK, it's worked out. It's working out. It's working out. Yeah, they'll study it for generations. The deal that Trump did. The deal was so beautiful. It was the best deal ever. You can just see what kind of impact you can have with only minimal loss of life. Think about how long the Vietnam War was compared to this. I think you get all that. My last thing on this, though, I just want to run into a couple other topics. And you mentioned this, but I just think it's worth just really sticking on it. If you look at the original goals set out by the administration, complete and total surrender was what Trump set as, you know, what he was calling for with Iran. They wanted regime change to get rid of the Khomeini family and the IRGC. As you mentioned, they wanted freedom for the Iranian people. They, after all those, obviously, what can happen? You know, the Rubio and Hexeth line really switched to where we want to, you know, limit or end their ability to project power in the region, you know, through their proxies, through their ballistic missile program. And, you know, we want to make sure that they cannot attack allies in the region. All of those are off the table now. Like, we're not even close to achieving any of those. The last thing that they now have fallen back on is this nuclear material. And that's basically the only one of the original goals that they even could plausibly have a positive outcome on. And we'll see if that's even possible. And they seem to be getting ready to relax sanctions, give Iran a lot back, a lot of frozen assets, give them frozen assets, much in a much greater quantity than Obama notoriously did in his deal. And they're hoping to kind of reopen the straight, which was open and truly open without any tolls or any nonsense about other fees, you know, for decades before that, before we began this adventure. So I mean, how can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground? I mean, this is even not even talking about the broader effects around the world, about allies, lack of confidence in us and so forth. I mean, it's a pretty disastrous thing, honestly, to the US. I say this without obviously that's bad. On the other hand, Trump deserves all the blame for it. Because guess what? This was not a war that was authorized by Congress. This is not a war that had bipartisan support. This is not a war that they made a case to the country about. And then it turns out the case wasn't quite what people hoped it would be. This is Trump's war. All right, I want to run through a couple of headlines. I want to flag this story about the continued weaponization of the DOJ. For one reason in particular, federal investigators are serving subpoenas to left-wing streamer Hassan Piker and the code pink co-founder, Medea Benjamin, as part of a probe into their aid convoys to Cuba earlier this year. They've gone to Cuba to bring aid after we started the blockade. Piker says before his trip to Cuba, he cleared it with the Office of Foreign Assets Control, Piker and Benjamin say the travel came as an authorized category of providing aid to Cubans and they stayed in a hotel allowed under US regulations. Interestingly, there have been some mega influencers like Nick Shirley that went to Cuba and stayed in hotels that are sanctioned. But I bring this up because these guys. This stuff is not an accident. Like they do this on purpose and it takes me back to the John Bolton thing. Right. And one thing that we always were saying when they when they went after John Bolton was they pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback. Right. And that's a Comey, too. You know, Jim Comey, not a lot of friends. John Bolton, not a lot of friends. Piker and Benjamin, you know, they have their, you know, friends on kind of the anti-war left, but in the Democratic establishment, you know, you think they figure these guys don't want to be tied to them and you're not going to see Chuck Schumer or whatever going aggressively to their defense. And so I just think that's why it's important to talk about. They've been doing this mostly targeting, you know, foes and, you know, either never Trump or types or, you know, going after people that had been in the administration and were, you know, the Miles Taylor's of the world, the Chris Krebs turncoats, you know, or kind of the people that were going directly at Trump on the on the various investigations. And like this is kind of a new category of people, but it's in the same vein of what they're trying to do. And it's totally unacceptable. My only footnote to that would be I was struck. They're going after people for going to Cuba. I mean, a lot of people have been going to Cuba for the last months and years, including under Trump, I believe, his own CIA director was there talking to the Cubans a week ago or something like that. I mean, they're all trying to work out, I suppose, some kind of quasi regime change all over Venezuela and Cuba. And in any case, this is part, don't you think, of the ratcheting up of this support here at home for we need to do something about Cuba? I mean, Rubio said several times the last two weeks Cuba is a national security threat to the U.S. It's like, really? But I think a lot of national security council meetings in the last two years, the last 10 years about the Cuban threat. Maybe I missed that somewhere. You know, once he accepts whatever crummy deal he's going to accept on Iran, I do think Cuba is right in the cross areas. Maybe this is a little bit of groundwork leg for that. Absolutely. Yeah. No, I think this is a two-pronged thing. One, it's again, they're trying to go after people that they think that it's politically beneficial to go after using the Justice Department, which is just their M.O., the total weaponization of the Justice Department to go to a trafose. And in this case, also, yeah, that predicate and and continuing the drumbeat on Cuba, which feels inevitable. And I think that the end of this Iran thing, if you just think about it from a psychological perspective, like they're going to feel like they need a cleaner win and they're going to try to move into Cuba, that feels inevitable to me. I do want to mention the continued Trump health issues that we're just not getting a lot of information about. He is tomorrow expecting to undergo his third scheduled medical checkup in 13 months at Walter Reed. They say it's a scheduled follow up to the last time he was there where he received the CT scan, but they won't tell us what it was for. And they didn't tell us he got a CT scan and kind of leaked out afterwards. In addition to the three trips to Walter Reed, he's also had the two dental visits in Florida that he said to do, five visits. That's a lot in 13 months. I don't know, Bill, how many times have you been to the doctor the last 13 months? More often, but I think maybe once. Less than five. Yeah, less than five. And also, I don't have a medical office in my basement here, in McLean, which is quite well equipped and very capable doctors. And people will come to the White House to attend to you, too, from Walter Reed. So it is pretty striking. You know, the bruises on the neck, the hands, he isn't looking good. It's meaningful in part because of the concerns about giving what is happening with Iran and like the high stakes. They're trying to overcompensate with like Steven Chung, your friend Steven Chung's in the lighthouse going, Trump worked today from eight until nine. And it's like, I mean, we're trying to end the war that we started with Iran. Like, that's kind of what you got to do is work if you're going to try to do that. And so like the high stakes of that with his diminishment is noticeable, I guess, and concerning an alarm. And psychologically, this is an AB starter discussed this maybe about a month ago, and she's very shrewd about this. Does it make him more extreme and more risk taker to the degree there's a little bit of a mortality sense or a little bit of a sense? Let's just say that maybe he's not well enough to run again in two years. I do think if that if the running again in two years is there in a big way, it probably makes him a little more politically sensitive to public opinion, however many votes they can steal and intimidate all that. If it's really kind of a ball in, this is the moment, whatever. I think it's a little dangerous. Give it his psyche. I don't know who knows about his psyche, but same. I do too. Lauren Egan last night, our colleague wrote about a list, I guess it is circulating among Democratic operatives for replacing Ken Martin, you know, among the names on there. My guy, Beto Rourke, former heads of like the SEIU and an Emily's List, Ben Wickler, who is Wisconsin chair, who ran against Ken Martin and lost narrowly and has said he wants nothing to do with this disaster. So I think that's more of a wish casting list. Does this matter to you? Like, what do you think the state of play is with Ken Martin? He did bungle that autopsy thing pretty badly and then having bungled it, bungled it some more. But I didn't follow it very closely. But it's so eludequist. He released it, but they released it hurriedly with all kinds of errors. And it wasn't really, he didn't want to release it. So it wasn't an official release. It was like, I mean, just as a basic, I mean, the one thing the DNC for all there, maybe not mattering ultimately about how many seats you win these people, we have communications professionals there who know how to release a report in a timely manner and go through it for typos. I don't, I guess not. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. The money thing, I think is to me, I look at all this, it's like, that's the one thing that does matter, which is, you know, the Republicans are raising a bunch more money, particularly at the National Committee level. You can understand why people wouldn't want to give money to the DNC right now. Some of that is unfair. Some of that is their faults. But the kind of finger pointing on all that ultimately doesn't matter. Like the reality is like Democrats need the resources to compete. You know, the House and Senate have their own fundraising committees. So this matters more in state races and down ballot and also just broader efforts that lift all boats, registration, et cetera. To me, it doesn't really even have anything to do with Ken Martin personally. I've never met Ken Martin. I don't know. Like who knows, maybe this has been unfair or the way it's been treated. I don't know. But it's like at this point, you just need somebody in there that can bring confidence back so that the committee can raise the money they need. And I would just like, why not just hire somebody in the vein of Beto or whoever like that can go on to TV, you know, be competent, that the donors will return their calls. And to me, that is like the prudential move. All right. Anything else in politics before we get to some Memorial Day reflections? Anything else catching your eye in the Senate or House races? That's everything dramatic. I guess tomorrow is the Texas primary and we will see pecs and defeat Cornyn presumably. It would be fantastic. I think it would be after all the trauma and everyone conceding of the voters of Texas, Republican voters of Texas. I don't expect this to happen, but still decide, well, what the hell, you know, we'll just stick with Cornyn. Yeah, it'll be something. I kind of want to see Cornyn humiliated. The one thing that was on my mind was they started going hard at Taylorico. Trump did from the plane, from Air Force One, that some ad money already going up there to go after Taylorico. And so I don't know. I think that's that's pretty telling to me about their level of concern. And I think maybe their hope is a concern about Paxton as well. But, you know, maybe they're the bet is they go and put a bunch of money and trying to paint Taylorico as whatever and out of touch lefty. And they can not have to spend as much in Texas in the edge, right? That they can fortify the race. Maybe that's their thinking. But if you go back in time a year and we said, hey, May 25th, Republicans are putting in a bunch of money to go after the Democrat nominee in Texas in the Senate, that would not be a great sign for their midterm chances. Yeah, I chose you how much things have changed in a year, really, in six, if even go back four or five months, people would not have believed this possible. Right. So that's that is striking. Even when I interviewed Taylorico, whenever that was, what was that, March two months, three months ago, he was talented. And I bet I was always caveatting it when people asked me about it. I was like, I think it's a long shot. You know, I think it's a bit of a stretch. You know, Alaska seems a little more likely. And I do think the dynamics changed pretty significantly. We had in the bull work, Mark Hurtling and our former colleague Will Selber, you know, writing some Memorial Day reflections. You talked to Michael Wood, friend of the show, former candidate from Congress and veteran in Texas yesterday and your Sunday conversation. I'm just hoping between all of that and, you know, your life, you can leave us with some Memorial Day wisdom. My wisdom is that people should read Mark Hurtling's piece and Will Selber's piece from a couple of years ago that we put back up on the site and then listen to Michael Wood, who served in Afghanistan in 2010, 2012. Purple hearts and the veterans have a different understanding and appreciation if I can say a Memorial Day than maybe the rest of us or as early as I think I do and deeper understanding of kind of what it means. And also that it's not for them just one day as Will, Michael Wood made this point to me, you know, and Mark Hurtling makes this point very eloquently. Every day he has on his desk a box with photos of the 230 maybe people who served under his command who were killed in Iraq. And he looks at them, opens the box and reflects them on their sacrifice. So for us, honestly, it's more of a perhaps a one day, not one day, year, hopefully, but Memorial Day is sort of special and it should be special. But for people who served, it's a more constant thing. I always thought it's a very moving holiday and a very appropriate holiday. And the way in which we celebrated, I've always thought, is very American in the in the good sense. I mean, you know, Sarah Maudy Arlington, pre-Trump, at least, the president giving, you know, appropriate Memorial remarks, many, many Memorial Day parades and gatherings all around the country without much grandeur, but with a lot of sincerity. And putting flags and cemeteries all around the country, sort of the opposite, honestly, of Trump's horrible arch. Yeah. All right. Well, shout out much love and appreciation to all the veterans listening and the families of veterans and folks who I'd love once who we lost overseas. Thinking about you today. I am about to end this podcast and head on back to New Orleans so we can have a get back to regular business tomorrow. So enjoy the holiday. Bill Crystal, thanks for joining me this morning and everybody else will see you back here tomorrow. Peace. The board podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer, Ansley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.
