It's Thursday, the 12th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Cuba is running out fuel. Airlines can't refuel, blackouts are spreading, and analysts warn the island could go dark by April. The government says it won't bend, but the country itself may be nearing collapse. I'll have the details. Later in the show, an update on that airspace shutdown over El Paso. Authorities are now disputing what actually caused Tuesday's disruption. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We've been tracking the escalating pressure campaign on Cuba's oil supplies for weeks now, and today we're beginning to see what that actually looks like on the ground. According to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the oil blockade appears to be grinding the country to a halt. Fuel is running out, flights are being canceled, hotels and businesses are closing, workers are being furloughed, and large portions of Havana are sitting in the dark. The Journal reports that Cuba's last major oil shipment arrived on January 9th. Since then, deliveries have slowed to a trickle. As you know, Venezuela's support evaporated after the U.S. operation that removed Nicolas Maduro from power. Mexico has halted shipments under U.S. pressure, and now it appears the island is running on fumes. The fallout has reached every sector of the country's economy. Public transportation has been curtailed. Government offices are sending employees home. Schools are cutting hours. Blackouts are worsening. One Cuban energy analyst told reporters that if fresh supplies don't arrive soon, the country could effectively run out of oil by April. Russia, which is, of course, one of Havana's closest partners, has described the situation as, quote, truly critical. Now, Cuban authorities have warned international airlines that they can no longer guarantee jet fuel on the island. In practical terms, that means carriers either suspend service or refuel elsewhere. In the coming days, Rocia, which is Russia's state airline, will operate several outbound-only flights from Cuba to Moscow in order to return stranded Russian tourists home before halting service. Air Canada announced this week that it's suspending service altogether. Now, tourism is one of the Cuban government's last reliable sources of hard currency. If planes can't refuel, well, tourists don't arrive. If tourists don't arrive, hotels, restaurants, and retail businesses shut down. In the face of this reality, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel insists the country will endure, and historically, the regime has shown a remarkable ability to survive under pressure. But things on the streets are beginning to look grim for the average Cuban citizen. And it's somewhat difficult for a government to survive if it can't provide electricity, water, and other basic essentials to its population. People do tend to lose patience. Iran is a recent comparable case study. The Wall Street Journal details scenes of empty roads in Havana, shuttered businesses, and furloughed workers receiving only partial pay. Basic goods are becoming increasingly unaffordable. Analysts warn that if oil does not begin flowing again, the island could face its most severe energy and economic collapse in decades Now for those folks who are trying to draw parallels to Venezuela meaning could Cuba situation result in a rapid change of direction for the government a pivot perhaps from communism to something resembling a move toward democracy, well, you're talking about apples and oranges. One is not like the other. There is no defined opposition in Cuba, no one or no group to replace the current leadership. No recent history of democracy or elections or freedoms. Cuba's security apparatus and intel service, well, they're omnipresent. They've got a grip on every aspect of life. The Cuban government can be pressured, sanctioned, squeezed to the edge, but orchestrating a transition to something that's good for the Cuban people is a complex, messy proposition. Coming up next, the story behind Tuesday's El Paso airspace shutdown is getting murkier, with authorities now challenging the initial explanation. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of time to talk about personal finances and the importance of diversifying your assets. So here's the question. Do you own physical gold? Look, in today's world, with its ups and downs and general instability, owning gold is something that everyone should consider. And here's a top tip. Acre gold makes it simple. That's ACRE, A-C-R-E. 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That's a clear look at how a once-wealthy oil state unraveled, and what that means, of course, for regional stability. and also his conversation with Douglas Murray, where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long-term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show, that's H-A-R-B-I-N-G-E-R, just like it sounds, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com slash start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I want to provide a follow-up to the story we discussed yesterday about the sudden airspace shutdown over El Paso. At the time, we were told that cartel drones forced the Federal Aviation Administration, the FAA, to ground flights. Now, that explanation is being disputed, as new details suggest something different may have triggered the closure. As we reported yesterday, the FAA issued an emergency temporary flight restriction over El Paso International Airport and nearby Santa Teresa, New Mexico, late Tuesday night. The restriction applied to a roughly 10 nautical mile radius. Commercial jets, cargo flights, private aviation, everything was halted. And the initial closure was reportedly going to last for 10 days. The notice from the Trump administration cited, quote, special security reasons, and warned that the federal government, quote, may use deadly force against aircraft determined to pose an immediate security threat. Initially, the restriction was set to last for 10 days. As we discussed, that's not routine language, and a 10-day shutdown over a major American airport is no small decision. But then, almost as quickly as it appeared, well, it was gone. Less than eight hours later, the order was reversed. By early Wednesday morning, flights were moving again. The Trump administration's explanation was direct. Mexican cartel drones breached U.S. airspace, and the Department of War moved to neutralize the threat. Now, in the context of what we've been seeing along the southern border, that explanation did not sound implausible. Cartels have used drones for years, obviously primarily inside of Mexico, for surveillance, to monitor smuggling routes, and in some cases to carry out attacks against rivals. Border patrol agents regularly report drone sightings near crossing corridors. And El Paso is not just any airport. It sits directly across from Ciudad Juarez and within minutes of Fort Bliss. That's a major army installation that supports transport operations and air defense training and rapid deployment forces. So when unidentified aerial activity shows up in that airspace, it's not just about delayed commercial flights, of course. It's about proximity to sensitive military infrastructure. But here's where the story begins to shift. Local officials say the shutdown came with little warning. The mayor of El Paso said city leaders were not properly briefed and called the lack of coordination unacceptable. The ripple effects were immediate. Medical evacuation flights were forced to divert to Las Cruces, New Mexico. And Republican senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn have since requested a classified briefing from the FAA and the Department of War. And the questions are piling up If this was a drone incursion something border officials have dealt with for years why did it trigger such a sweeping 10 airspace restriction And why was it reversed in less than eight hours? That's where the new reporting adds a different layer. Multiple individuals briefed on the situation say the closure may not have been triggered solely by a cartel drone breaching American airspace. Instead, it may have stemmed from the deployment of an anti-drone laser system in the area without sufficient coordination with aviation authorities. According to those accounts, Customs and Border Protection Officials, CBP, used an anti-drone laser shared by the Department of War earlier in the week. FAA officials had not yet completed a safety assessment of how that system might affect nearby commercial aircraft and warned the Pentagon that without adequate review time, they would have no choice but to shut down surrounding airspace if the system was activated near flight paths. Individuals briefed on the situation say CBB personnel believe they were targeting a cartel drone, but it was later determined to be a party balloon. Now, no word yet on what kind of party balloon. Personally, I'm hoping it was one of those balloons in the shape of a cartoon character, maybe an underdog or Mighty Mouse. So the point being, the shutdown may not have been the FAA reacting in real time to cartel drones. It may have been the FAA responding to the sudden activation of counter-drone technology near a major airport before the safety review was complete. That would explain both the extremes, the 10-day restriction, and the rapid reversal. But what isn't clear is how various federal and state government organizations were unable to coordinate something as important as U.S. airspace security protocols. We'll keep an eye on this and provide further updates as warranted. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Thursday, the 12th of February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, well, you can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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