The Journal.

Goodbye 2025, Hello 2026!

10 min
Dec 29, 20254 months ago
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Summary

The Journal's top editors reflect on 2025's biggest business stories—Trump's tariffs and tax cuts, the AI arms race and bubble concerns, and fundamental shifts in how businesses operate—while previewing key trends to watch in 2026.

Insights
  • Trump's tariff policy and tax cuts are reshaping the foundations of American business operations, with Supreme Court review of tariff authority pending
  • The AI race is simultaneously the biggest tech story and a potential financial bubble, with profitability and ROI becoming critical questions for 2026
  • Consumer sentiment disconnect persists despite low gas prices and high stock markets, creating political pressure on the administration
  • AI infrastructure investment is reaching unsustainable levels; any pullback in spending could trigger market-wide contagion effects
  • Tariff policy, EV regulation, and AI adoption will fundamentally reshape global supply chains, employment, and corporate profitability in 2026
Trends
AI profitability crisis: major labs investing heavily but struggling to monetize tools, raising bubble concernsTariff-driven reshoring: questions about whether manufacturing jobs will return to America or be replaced by automationAI talent wars: intense competition among OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta, and Anthropic for top researchersPolicy-driven business disruption: tariffs, EV mandates, and food policy fundamentally altering competitive landscapesAI safety and AGI risks: growing focus on whether AI systems could become smarter than humansU.S.-China AI competition: race for advanced chip development and infrastructure dominanceMarket jitters in AI sector: investors questioning sustainability of current investment levels and timelines to profitabilityWorkplace transformation: AI already changing how employees work, find information, and interact with toolsCapital cost pressures: potential for lenders to demand higher returns if AI bubble concerns materializePost-globalization economy: end of 'before times' as tariffs and policy reshape international trade
Topics
Trump Tariff Policy and Supreme Court ReviewAI Arms Race and Profitability ConcernsAI Infrastructure Investment and Bubble RiskTax Cut Implementation and Economic PolicyAI Safety and Artificial General IntelligenceU.S.-China AI and Chip CompetitionCorporate Tariff Impact on Global Supply ChainsAI Talent Competition Among Tech LabsConsumer Sentiment vs. Economic IndicatorsEV Policy and Manufacturing JobsAI Adoption in the WorkplaceCapital Markets and AI FinancingFood Policy Business ImpactRepublican Congressional Majority PressureAdvanced Chip Development Race
Companies
OpenAI
Major AI lab competing for talent and investment in the AI arms race; central to profitability and bubble concerns
Google DeepMind
Leading AI lab competing for top talent and infrastructure investment in the broader AI race
Meta
Major AI competitor investing heavily in AI infrastructure and talent acquisition
Anthropic
AI lab competing in the talent and investment race with other leading AI companies
People
Damien Paletta
Discussed Trump's tariff policy, tax cuts, and Supreme Court review of presidential tariff authority
Sarah Krause
Covered AI race as biggest tech story, including talent wars, safety concerns, and profitability questions
Amol Sharma
Focused on AI financing, bubble risks, and potential market triggers from spending pullbacks
Kate Limbaugh
Discussed how tariffs, EV policy, and AI are fundamentally changing business operations and the global economy
Jane Goodall
Featured in one of the Journal's favorite episodes of 2025; one of her last interviews before passing
Quotes
"Christmas should be February 14th, and Valentine's Day should be December 25th."
RyanEarly in episode
"The AI race was hands down the biggest story for the tech and media team this year."
Sarah KrauseMid-episode
"This year has fundamentally changed the foundations of how businesses operate. From Trump's tariff policy to the EV policy to food policy, it has upended how business is done in America."
Kate LimbaughLate in episode
"This powerful technology that these leading labs are building could one day become smarter than humans."
Sarah KrauseMid-episode
"If real problems start to emerge, there could be all kinds of triggers that send us down the wrong path in AI."
Amol SharmaLate in episode
Full Transcript
When the tax year ends on the 5th of April, valuable tax allowances may be lost simply because people left things too late. Thankfully, Vanguard is here to help you make well-considered decisions, not rushed ones. Their tax year-end hub is full of clear guidance, helpful tools and timely reminders to help you understand your allowances and give your investments the best chance to grow. Search Vanguard Investor to learn more. When investing, your capital is at risk. Tax rules apply. The world moves fast. You work day, even faster. Pitching products, drafting reports, analyzing data. Microsoft 365 Copilot is your AI assistant for work, built into Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and other Microsoft 365 apps you use, helping you quickly write, analyze, create, and summarize. So you can cut through clutter and clear a path to your best work. Learn more at Microsoft.com slash N365 Copilot. Hey, Jess. Hey, Ryan. How's it going? Pretty good. How about you? Not bad. So it's Monday, December 29th, and I know there are some people who are warming up their frigid cars right now trying to get to work. And then there are some people who are cozy in their pajamas by fire and have the rest of the week off. Right. Which one of those people are you? The latter, I think, today. What about you? So I've got the pajamas. I've got the rest of the week off. But this time of year is so chaotic that... Can I make a case to you for why I think Christmas and Valentine's Day should switch places? Yes. Have I not told you this yet? No. Christmas should be February 14th, and Valentine's Day should be December 25th. Why? The reason is because the fall is way too crowded. You've got Halloween less than 38 days later, you've got Thanksgiving, then less than 30 days later, you've got Christmas. It's too busy. There's too much going on. You just saw your family and traveled around Thanksgiving, and then you're going to do it again 30 days later. And then you've got the doldrums of the wintertime. The wintertime, you've got January and February with nothing to look forward to. It would be perfect if you just have Valentine's Day, the romance holiday, leading right into New Year's Eve, another romance holiday. You kind of get your date set up for what you're going to do on New Year's Eve. And then January 1st comes around, and that kicks off six weeks of the Christmas season. And then at the bottom of winter, you've got Christmas, the middle of February. I mean, I agree with you philosophically. I think this is a great idea. I'm just not sure who you would pitch it to. The Christian tradition. Look, the Christians have done it before. They've done it before. Tell the Pope. All right, sorry. This is not why we brought you here today. We actually have a little holiday treat. Just one more episode to look back at the biggest stories that define 2025. Right. We called up the top editors at the Wall Street Journal to ask them what they thought the top stories of the year were, as well as what they're looking ahead to in 2026. So here's the first one from DC. Hi, this is Damien Paletta, Washington coverage chief at the Wall Street Journal. One of the biggest storylines that we've been following here in 2025 has been President Trump's implementation of his economic agenda, both through a huge tax cut package that passed Congress in the middle of the year, and then all along the way, these tariffs that the president has imposed on a number of countries. And the tariffs remain a big story. The Supreme Court now is reviewing his power to impose these tariffs, and that's the decision that we could have soon to determine whether or not he can continue to impose tariffs against countries without congressional approval. So that's going to be a big storyline going forward. The economy is a huge story right now, especially for many Americans who remain unsettled even though we have low gas prices in a high stock market. Many Americans are feeling a disconnect with this economy, and this is creating mounting pressure on President Trump. That's going to be a big story that we follow in 2026 as the White House is hoping to save the Republican majority in Congress. It was a very busy 2025, and it's going to be even busier 2026 here in the Washington Bureau. Yeah, that's a Supreme Court ruling on whether President Trump's tariffs are illegal is going to be a really big story. Who do we have next? I'm Sarah Krause, and I'm the Technology and Media Editor at the Wall Street Journal. The AI race was hands down the biggest story for the tech and media team this year. We've covered the battle for talent among top AI labs like Meta, Google's DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic, the safety concerns that these new powerful tools raise, the otherworldly sums of cash being invested in building out AI infrastructure, and more recently concerns about an AI bubble. And whether it can work towards turning a profit. So why does this all matter? This powerful technology that these leading labs are building could one day become smarter than humans. They're already transforming how we work, find information, and interact with devices in each other. So heading into 2026, we'll be watching closely for signs that the big names in AI can actually make money from the tools they're building and continue to spur adoption of those tools. We're also closely monitoring U.S. competition with China and AI, the race to develop new advanced chips, and America's progress in AI's infrastructure build out. No shortage of great stories to cover next year. I mean, AI easily one of the biggest stories of the year, if not the biggest business story of the year. It could be the biggest story of humanity's entire existence if it turns into artificial general intelligence. Yeah, I laugh, but it's true. Either that or it'll pop and bring down the entire U.S. economy with it. Yeah, I mean, to your point, Ryan, like the money is something that the Wall Street Journal is going to continue to be following. And in fact, that's something that our finance team will be looking into in 2026. Hi, this is Amol Sharma, the Journal's financial editor. For 2026, one thing we'll be super focused on is the financing of the AI arms race and the worries that a bubble is forming right now in AI. And we've been documenting the enormous sums of money that have been flowing from Wall Street into all these data centers that are being built out for the open AIs of the world. So if real problems start to emerge, there could be all kinds of triggers that send us down the wrong path in AI. You could see companies delaying projects or pulling back even slightly on spending commitments. Things like that would definitely spook the markets. Lenders could, of course, demand higher returns, driving up the cost of capital for AI companies. All these things would be really damaging for sort of the momentum of the AI buildout. But it's also possible that the jitters that we've been seeing in the markets lately about AI are just that, just passing jitters. So we'll have to see how it plays out. And the last editor that we have a message here from is from a very familiar voice. And I will let her introduce herself. Hello, Journal Podcast. It's so nice to be back. This is Kate Limbaugh, corporate editor of the Wall Street Journal and former co-host with Jess and Ryan of the Journal Podcast. I would say this year has fundamentally changed the foundations of how businesses operate. From Trump's tariff policy to the EV policy to food policy, it has upended how businesses done in America. And I'm not sure there will be a resumption of before times. So looking ahead, we are watching everything from how AI changes how businesses operate and the workplace, to how tariff policy changes the global economy, will jobs come back to America? This is a big question. Will robots take those jobs? These are the sorts of things we're going to be looking at. And we're also watching how these fundamental changes to the foundations of what had been the global economy will affect profits, will affect businesses, will affect jobs, will affect the economy, how that all trickles down and what it looks like in dollars and cents. Thanks, Kate. It's just so great to hear your voice. Before we go, we have one more thing for you guys. We have a little present. We made a playlist, Ryan and I, of some of our favorite episodes of the year. It has everything on it from why the witch economy is booming to one of the last interviews with Jane Goodall before she passed away. And all five episodes of Camp Swamp Road are amazing miniseries that if you haven't listened to yet, you really, really need to. We'll be back with a great chance. There's a link to the playlist in our show notes. We hope you guys check it out. And we just want to say thank you so much for listening to the show this year. We are so lucky that we're going to do this job and be with you guys every day. Thank you for joining us. Happy New Year and we will be back in your feed on January 5th. Thanks for listening, everybody.