FDX ALPA Podcast

Fly By Night: Scheduling Committee March 2026 Build Week

10 min
Feb 5, 20262 months ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

FedEx pilot leaders discuss March 2026 scheduling challenges amid MD-11 grounding, staffing pressures, and hiring delays. With 500 pilots moved to pay-only status and 194 retirements scheduled for 2026, the airline faces critical capacity constraints while competitors hire thousands. The episode covers bid line construction, training pipeline delays, and the urgent need for proactive hiring to avoid future understaffing.

Insights
  • MD-11 grounding has shifted 500 pilots to pay-only status, forcing bid line averages to maximum capacity and stressing system-wide staffing levels
  • FedEx faces a 6-month hiring lag from application to first revenue flight; competitors are hiring 6,000 pilots this year, creating recruitment competition
  • Staffing shifts happen rapidly but with significant operational delays; training pipeline pulls line pilots off schedules, creating cascading capacity issues
  • Current attrition rate of 25 pilots/month (retirements + resignations) requires immediate hiring to maintain parity; no hiring has begun despite warnings
  • System flexibility tools (BLGs, vacation buyback, AVA) are already maxed out; MD-11 return is the only major lever remaining to relieve pressure
Trends
Pilot attrition accelerating: 194 scheduled retirements in 2026 plus ongoing resignations creating structural staffing deficitTraining capacity becoming bottleneck: pay-only pilots ranging 300-600 depending on hiring cycle, now trending toward 600 as training increasesCompetitive hiring pressure intensifying: major carriers (American, United, Delta) hiring 6,000 pilots in 2026 alone, drawing talent away from FedExBid line construction hitting ceiling: almost all bid packs now at maximum hours due to MD-11 absence; limited flexibility remainingOperational complexity increasing: pulling line pilots for training creates secondary staffing pressure; system approaching critical capacity thresholdHiring timeline risk: 6-month lag from hiring decision to operational impact means FedEx must act within 12 months to avoid crisisPay-only status becoming structural issue: 500 MD-11 pilots plus training pipeline creating permanent capacity drain on line operations
Topics
MD-11 Aircraft Grounding ImpactPilot Staffing and Attrition ManagementBid Line Construction and SchedulingPilot Hiring Pipeline and TimelinePay-Only Status and Training CapacityRetirement and Resignation ForecastingSystem Bid Scheduling (2502, 2601)Competitive Hiring Pressure from Major CarriersLine Construction Restrictions (25D1)Operational Flexibility Tools (BLGs, AVA, Vacation Buyback)Contract Negotiations and Grievance CommitteePilot Communication and Union AdvocacyMacroeconomic Freight Demand TrendsScheduling Committee OperationsALPA Representation and Pilot Concerns
Companies
FedEx
Primary employer; MD-11 grounding and staffing crisis directly impacts pilot scheduling, hiring, and operational capa...
American Airlines
Competitor hiring 2,000 pilots in 2026; creates recruitment pressure for FedEx pilot talent
United Airlines
Competitor hiring 2,000 pilots in 2026; creates recruitment pressure for FedEx pilot talent
Delta Air Lines
Competitor hiring 2,000 pilots in 2026; creates recruitment pressure for FedEx pilot talent
People
Captain Chris Lee
Host and MEC Communications Chair; leads podcast discussion on FedEx pilot scheduling and staffing issues
Captain Marty Harrington
Scheduling Committee Chair; primary subject matter expert discussing March 2026 build, MD-11 impact, and hiring timeline
Mike Piercy
Scheduling Committee Vice Chairman retiring at age 65; recognized for ALPA volunteer work since 2004
Yogi Berra
Referenced for 'deja vu all over again' quote used to describe repetitive monthly scheduling patterns
Quotes
"One of my favorite Yogi Berisms, the older pilots may remember him, is it's like deja vu all over again. We had January was the reconfiguration without the MD-11. February was kind of a mirror image of January, and March follows in line again."
Captain Marty HarringtonOpening remarks
"With the MD-11 on the sidelines, this trend is going to continue to stress staffing levels across the board."
Captain Marty HarringtonMid-discussion
"If they don't start hiring within a year, they're going to get behind hiring. Look, American, United, and Delta, this year alone, they're planning on hiring 6,000 pilots."
Captain Marty HarringtonHiring discussion
"We lose 25 pilots every single month. That trend isn't going to stop anytime soon. If we were to just hire 25 a month, it would keep it even. And we're not hiring anybody yet."
Captain Marty HarringtonAttrition analysis
"There's a lot of uncertainty out there. A lot of pilots are, you know, MD-11, the contract. If you have questions or concerns, send us an email, send us a dart. I understand there's a lot going on, but we will continue to be the advocate for all the pilots."
Captain Marty HarringtonClosing remarks
Full Transcript
You're listening to Fly By Night, a podcast by FedEx pilots for FedEx pilots, brought to you by the FedEx Master Executive Council of the Airline Pilots Association. And now, here's your host, MEC Communications Chair, Captain Chris Lee. Back with me today is Scheduling Committee Chair, Captain Marty Harrington. Marty, welcome back to the podcast. Let's start with the March build. How's that going? Thanks, Chris. One of my favorite Yogi Berisms, the older pilots may remember him, is it's like deja vu all over again. We had January was the reconfiguration without the MD-11. February was kind of a mirror image of January, and March follows in line again. Roughly the same amount of hours, slight uptick, but nothing that's going to change the bid pack dramatically from one month to the next. In the SIG notes, I'm throwing a couple charts in just to give some reference to pilots on where we were just a few months ago to where we are right now. So the charts are going to compare pre-peak to post-peak data. With MD-11 pilots moving to pay only status in January, almost all the bid line averages have moved up to almost the highest we can build. Line construction now is limited more on the 25D1 restrictions on mid-days off and days off pattern. We are building as high as we can in almost every bid pack. With the MD-11 on the sidelines, this trend is going to continue to stress staffing levels across the board. Since you mentioned staffing, you've talked in the past about when that shift happens, it shifts fast. Can you talk to the pilots about that? In the past, we've seen there's been a catalyst or not a catalyst, right? It's either over time, we're losing pilots, we need to start hiring again, or over time, the trend goes in the other way. We lose some flying macroeconomically, there's less freight being shipped, those type of trends. COVID was a catalyst, right? That year, 2020, we saw typical average month for draft volunteers in the 1,000 to 2,000 range, and it just exploded in April. I knew, personally, we were understaffed by that month of April, seeing those numbers But if you think about it it took the company roughly six months They had to have the Moab the mother of all bids They created vacancies in all the seats because they didn have the throughput to hire. Typically, we would just hire into the 75FO seat as the initial seat position. They needed that throughput to ramp up to hire roughly, they started hiring about 60 a month that following September. So it took them six months. Then on top of that, you have a couple more months to train. They have to go through in-doc and train the pilots in those airplanes. Also, when you shift from understaffed to overstaffed, vice versa, you have these delays. The trend is now you have to pull line pilots off to train the new pilots. You have to pull line pilots off to go into the schoolhouse, pay onlys. We talked about it before. And we go from roughly a low in pay-onlys of 300. We've seen as high as 600 when we're really training pilots. In the month of December, most of the schoolhouse comes out and flies the line because they need the line pilots there. That trend, we haven't had much training, but now we're going to see more pilots go into the schoolhouse, be pulled out off the line and become pay-onlys. That's going to stress the system as well. And like I said, especially with the MD-11 sideline, we're talking about 500 pilots that have now been added to the pay-only status. They're not flying the line. You get a lot of questions on hiring. Can you talk about how long it takes to get a new hire to the line? Like I said the last time, it took them six months. They were still hiring in 2020, but they really didn't crank it up until that September. And they had to have those vacancies. Right now, we talk about it every single month, retirements and resignations. which the slope for the past three years has been negative 25 a month, if you average it out over that time. You add both of those together, we lose 25 pilots every single month. That trend isn't going to stop anytime soon. If we were to just hire 25 a month, it would keep it even. And we're not hiring anybody yet. We continue to see 25 guys go out the door. Prior to the MD-11 being grounded, I would say, like I said, BLGs were in the low range, 66 to 67, 68. Now they're at the high end. There's this flexibility, and that's how the company deals with staffing is they move the BLGs up or down. They do vacation buyback. They do AVA. They're managing all those things with those but they turned everything on now There isn much more to be turned on Getting the MD and flying again would be great but the trend going out the door is going to continue And I would say if they don start hiring within a year they'll be behind. Really, they should start hiring sooner than later. There's a lot involved bringing someone off the street to become a pilot of FedEx. They have to open up the application window. They have to conduct interviews. They have to do basic in-doc. And then after all that happens, the pilot has to go learn the airplane that he's flying on, go through simulators, IOE. So it takes a while before the first revenue flight a pilot flies on. Those processes just don't happen overnight. It takes time to get through those. I haven't heard anything on the hiring side yet, but if they don't start hiring within a year, they're going to get behind hiring. Look, American, United, and Delta, this year alone, they're planning on hiring 6,000 pilots. So if we're going to be competing against those other airlines for pilots to come here, I think it's going to be a difficult task for the hiring department here at FedEx. And to summarize the change of circumstance we find ourselves in, we were still in 42C in October. Obviously, the MD-11 has a huge impact on the flight schedule and the credit hours and where those are going, BLGs. but we had more draft volunteer in the month of December than we've had since COVID. We are definitely in a different world than we were just a few months ago. Any updates on retirements and resignations? Yes. In the month of January, we had 12 retirements and six resignations. Every year, The company has a list of who's scheduled to retire. And in 2026, currently on the books for the year, scheduled 194 retirements this year. Now, that doesn't include resignations because I can't predict that. But as of right now, 194 are scheduled to walk out the door in 2026. Marty, can you talk about your scheduling role with the MD-11 discussions that are ongoing with the company? Yeah, so I was pulled in for the MD-11 discussions we had with the company. We prepped for those meetings. We've had three of them so far, and I attended. I'm there as a subject matter expert. It's really being run by the grievance committee. And just last week, they put out a brief communication on the status of those. So if you have any questions regarding this I would check that email first We filled a lot of darts on where we going with the MD but there just a lot of unanswered questions right now And once we get more clarity, we'll let the pilots know. Any updates on system bids? Yes. 2502 was a small bid, and I hear they're working on 2601. should be out in the next couple weeks, and it should be very similar to the size of 2502. 2502 should finish training by May, and this 2601 should begin training in June. Well, Marty, thanks again for taking the time to stop by. Any final thoughts? Of course. This Sunday, rode the jump seat in, 7-6 crew, and really, they were very appreciative of the podcast and the communication, the work we do, Chris, every single month now. And I want to thank them for listening and being very gracious. Really, we spent the better part of that three and a half hour flight just talking, talking about ALPA, about where we are. I know there's a lot of uncertainty out there. A lot of pilots are, you know, MD-11, the contract. If you have questions or concerns, send us an email, send us a dart. I understand there's a lot going on, but we will continue to be the advocate for all the pilots. Next month, my vice chairman, Mike Piercy, is retiring. He's turning 65. I've worked with him for quite some time. He began reviewing in the PSIT in 2004, started building lines a couple of years after that. he was also the Trip Services Committee Vice Chairman for a number of years. And then back in 2016, he joined me on the SIG as my Vice Chairman. One of the best people I've ever met here at FedEx. I enjoyed working with him, and we're really going to miss him. So if you see him out there on the line, please thank him. He's been a great volunteer for ALPA, and he's put in great work, donating a lot of his personal time to make other pilots' lives better. Well, thanks for stopping by, Marty. And thanks for listening. If you have any questions, please go to our website, ftx.alpha.org, and utilize the Dart link. And as always, be safe out there, and we'll see you next time. you