6/16/26: Anthropic CEO Pressed On AI In Military Use, Gas Prices Here To Stay, MAGA Grandma Turns On Trump

This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Some very interesting comments from Anthropics, Dario Amade, who I will remind you, they're supposed to be like the ethical, safety-minded AI company. He was asked about whether or not Claude, their product played a role in the murder of a lot of Iranian schoolgirls in Minab. Let's go ahead and take a listen to his response. We don't know exactly how these models were used. Obviously, these things that mistakes that happen in warfare are really, really terrible. Like this is a really terrible thing to happen. We were willing to risk the future of our company to limit how these models are used. And what you're talking about is a use case that doesn't even violate our red lines. We're worried that there will be 100 times as much with use cases that do violate our red lines. So he says there, the use case does not even violate our guidelines. The use case here being targeting a little girl's school and murdering over 100 Iranian schoolgirls. That's the use case he's talking about. And the crazy thing is, Sagar, that you don't want to say he's supposed to be the most ethical. I actually think he is. It just shows you how low the bar is. He's the one they said to the Pentagon, no, we're not going to accept complete autonomous killing with no human involved in the decision making whatsoever. That led to him drawing the ire of Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War crimes, Pete Hegseth, and the Trump administration overall. I think it is the primary reason why right now Fable has been polled not so much out of concerns over safety, but because he dared politically to cross the Trump regime. And meanwhile, after he did that, then Sam Altman in OpenAI immediately runs up, oh, we'll do it, don't worry, we have no ethics whatsoever. So I actually think it is true that he is the best of the group. And that is really, really saying something, because listen to how he talks about this too. I mean, the content of it is disturbing enough. But it's also so cold and so divorced from any kind of humanity. Like the normal human reaction is horror at what was done and deep upset over the possibility that something that you were involved in creating may have had anything to do with that. And you get none of that from him whatsoever. This is the guy that, you know, he was at OpenAI. He was sort of the head of the group that was most concerned about safety. Then he's concerned that OpenAI isn't taking safety seriously enough. They go out and start anthropic. That's like his, you know, his origin story. But it really gives you a window into the psychology of these people who have tremendous power in their hands and who are already tremendously wealthy if anthropic goes public, he is gonna be even more wildly wealthy. And if they succeed in achieving AGI or super intelligence, the amount of power that he's going to have personally or any of these guys is so terrifying. That's why I was like, look, I get it. You know, does it not exist? Like corrupt reasons? I'm still, I'm like, no. Like we cannot be ruled by these people. You know, if you listen to the whole thing, and I have a little bit of a summary, what he says is that he's like, look, I didn't even violate our use case because a human reviewed it. It's like, well, the whole problem is about how that target set remained on the day one strike package. Was it AI? As we have laid out, there's a very convincing case for it. Because of the name and the rename, it's exactly the type of thing. Anybody casually playing around with AI, what was it? The girl's school used to be part of a base. It had been abandoned. And then there was also that strike on the park, if we recall, which also had been labeled in such a way that an AI- It was called police park. And the Israelis in particular retargeting a lot of civilian police to try to create social chaos and disorder within Iran. So they end up bombing a park called police park. You could easily see how a chat GPT or a Cod, as maybe any of you, if you've played around with it, how they would be like, yeah, find all places used by police in Iran. Target set pops up. Find all IRGC bases that are known. How would it know necessarily without a human actually checking if they didn't check? And that was part of the strike package. So you cannot trust these people. You know what? You really should also really pay close attention to their defense of the technology. Let me read you this direct quote from the same interview. Amade defended the use of AI military conflict during his interviews. We don't want a world where China and Russia can build, can analyze all their intelligence with AI, can use AI for attacking Taiwan and Ukraine, and we can't defend them. All right, so in his universe, Claude is the only American alternative. Now recall, in China, yes, they have private companies. There's no such thing. The private companies work in tandem directly with the government. I don't even care about that at this point because clearly it's a superior model. Well, here what they're saying is that our unfettered, unrestricted AI is the only potential opportunity to combat what the Chinese and the spooky Russians are doing in Ukraine. That's the point. They're trying to prop themselves up as these national champions. And it's deeply cynical because what it really means is that our national champions have to be completely unrestricted and have to be backed, stopped by the US government, and that we cannot tell them what to do. We will acquiesce to them entirely. Both are terrifying possibilities, right? Cause at least in China, you don't have this separate oligarch, you have total government control. Total government control. Has it down sides? But here you have half government control and then half private control over everything. It's actually the worst of both worlds. You have oligarchic and government authoritarianism fused together basically to create some sort of like supra rich state, which is ultimately, I think, what they want for everybody. Yeah, the but China argument that Dario is fully bought in on. I'm reading this book, what is it called? Empire of AI, excellent. Yeah, and so I'm going through this portion right now. And when you have this mentality of, oh, but if we don't do it, then scary Chinese are gonna do it. Guess what that leads to? All your safety concerns ultimately are gonna take a back seat to that or your moral ethical concerns, as in the case of letting the Department of War crimes use your technology in such a way that results in little girls getting mass murdered. You're gonna say, oh, but if we don't do it, then China is going to do it. This is exactly how David Sacks was able to spike the potential executive order that was reportedly being drafted that Trump was contemplating of requiring some sort of government process to make sure these models are safe before they're turned over to the public. And if you go, oh, but if we do that, then China's gonna be there, we can't have that. That's how you end up with this complete no regulation off to the racist approach that we have. And just to go back to what you were saying about the targeting and how you can imagine AI, okay, you're looking for anything to do with Sears Police Park, and also the interaction between AI and humans and how it makes the humans lazier. I think this is very common with technological advances. I mean, you can think about it like Google Maps, right? Our brains have all gotten a lot lazier and a lot less adept at being able to actually find our way around places and know how to get places on our own. But that has only minor consequences. You could think about it with the Tesla self-driving, right? It's good most of the time. The expectation is supposed to be that a human is paying attention and not just default turning it all over to the computer because we've had hundreds of accidents, some of them fatal, from exactly that result where the auto driving system is not so good that it can deal with these edge cases. But the human has already lazily turned over all of their faculties to the self-driving. And so you could see very easily how this would happen with military targeting as well. If it was a human that was having to go through sort of from scratch and develop the strike package and analyze all of these targets, they wouldn't just be lazily turning over their brain power to the tech. But oftentimes what happens with the tech is you just assume that, oh, it's pretty good and it is probably pretty good most of the time, but there are going to be instances where it fails. And those instances when you're talking about war are literally life or death. The other thing that has been very noteworthy that we have been tracking here is the public backlash to this technology. And one thing that's truly unique, let's see two up on the screen, is that that backlash has really been centered among young people. And the reason I say that's unique is because usually it's young people who are the most enthusiastic about new technological developments. And it's usually older people who are, oh, I was setting their ways, get off my lawn, I don't want to change how I'm doing things, I like the status quo. Here it's a complete reversal where it's young people who have the gravest concerns understandably because I think of a couple of reasons. Put C2 up, this is a Stanford walkout of the CEO of Google was speaking at their commencement ceremony, Sundar Prachai. And there was a significant walkout here. Now this wasn't just about AI, this was about Google's contracts with the IDF and the moral and ethical concerns. But I think the two are very much tied in given how much we understand that AI was important and was really tested out. They use Gaza as like a testing ground for the integration of AI tech on the battlefield. So we've also seen any AI commencement seat speakers that even mentioned AI at all, getting booed and really having a rough time of it with these students. And you can understand Saga why, because they're the ones who are really on the frontline of the job consequences here. And young people also have been the most vocal and the most upset about the ethical implications and the barbarism that they've seen with this technology as well. Yeah, I think with a lot of this, what people are watching in horror is the sheer, like it's about control. It's not just about immorality with what happened in Israel and Gaza. That's definitely part of it. But the reason why with data, and if you talk to a younger person, I mean, I remember talking about this last year, it's, you know, what is it? It's June 16th, so we're full past the class of 2026 has mostly graduated. What do you do? We remember in our AMA, somebody asked us, they're like, what career advice do you give? I don't know, I can't tell you. And I didn't even graduate that long ago. So it's a terrifying possibility. I look at the wage growth, I look at the economy, I look at housing. I mean, what other than learn how to think for yourself and really try to build up, yet genuinely like build up your ability to make decisions by reading a lot of books. I do not know what possible actual career advice I could give. And I think that's really scary for a lot of people with AI. And this is probably the first generation because the class of 2026, Chatch E.P.T. came out in 2022. They went through full on college with Chatch E.P.T. their entire college experience. So a lot of them probably have never written a real essay. They have never don't even know what it's like to have to solve problems or anything without AI at a collegiate level. And even if they're continuing in their field. So for them, they know the upside and the usefulness of said technology, but they also know how much it could potentially endanger their future career choices. And then all to see Dario and others, talking about how, oh, it wouldn't even violate our use case. So they're out of control. I felt that one of the reasons why a lot of young people despair right now is they really have never been less in control of their own destiny than at any time in modern American history. That's what the dream, ultimately, was about, is I foresee a path to controlling my future. And right now they don't. That's what AI is ultimately. I think that's right. Let's put C5 up on the screen. I have a personal deep and abiding hatred of these freaking meta AI glasses that people can be wearing them. You really can't tell that they could be recording, taking pictures of you, et cetera. And so Wired, which does some really great reporting, they have uncovered that meta is partnering with this Pentagon supplier to prototype facial recognition for their glasses. The company is called Rank One. They say the board includes a former CIA deputy director, former FBI science chief, supplied face recognition of meta for internal development of its smart glasses app. They go on to say their arrangement is documented in a software license that was obtained by Wired. This would be part of the meta Ray Ban and Oakley smart glasses. Rank One's face recognition has been bought by the US Marshall Service, which uses it to confirm prisoners' identities without fingerprinting them during transport by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, the Navy's police force, which purchased the company's video tool. Rank One developed long range face recognition for US Special Operations Command under a government research contract, saying it software could identify a face from as far as a kilometer away. Police departments across the country use its algorithms to embedded in tools they buy from other vendors. By the way, already the deployment of this tech in a policing and surveillance context has led to issues where people have been wrongfully arrested for crimes they allegedly committed, where they were not even in the state where the crime was committed, but they come up on some algorithmically facial recognition technology as oh it was them, and then they end up getting arrested and it's literally taken weeks to months to get them out of prison and prove that I had nothing to do with this crime. So even in the policing context, this is already horrifying, but how dystopian, the people could be walking around with these freaking things and pulling you up on, facial recognition and pulling you up and knowing everything about you, that is creepy as hell. It is such a violation. I think these things have got to be banned. I was like, call me a Luddite, ban this shit. Yes, absolutely. Maybe I'm paranoid, but when I'm in public, that is literally the first thing that I look for. Cause you don't know, there are weirdos who are out there. You're in a gym walker room, people are walking around with glasses. You don't know for sure. I mean, anybody else seen on Instagram, like the number of undercover videos that people do now? And some of them are entertaining, but it's like, look, I'll take my entertainment off the table just to make sure that people have like a modicum of privacy. If you're cashier, you're not safe. If you're in a social situation, you're not safe. I mean, God help any young person who wants to go to a bar anymore these days. Good luck, seriously. Because between phones and the metaglasses, like it's, you're constantly being recorded. And also, these people don't even have any scruples about just airing the faces of complete strangers. Like here in the news business, you can't do that. You have to get release forms and all of this. They just air it, you know, and air on the side of, they just don't care about caution. They'll put people completely on blasts. And now to add facial recognition software, which it already exists, you can look up Clearview AI. It's already owned. It's one of the biggest technology companies. It came out of Silicon Valley and it works with every police, you know, CIA and all these other intelligence agencies. By the way, if you're curious for what their founder has gone on to do, he now is going to be owning a steak and only fan. So think about that next time that you are signing up for one of those. Yeah, and a little facial recognition on the camera that anybody else ever seen this, you know, like the green light come on when the camera's on. I don't even have face ID, it still comes on sometime. What are you recording? What's going on here? Gross. Yeah, and there's something, I mean, it's bad enough that there's so many public cameras, so much just like public surveillance. But it feels different when there's an assumption that, okay, whatever, you know, government or business or whatever that's reviewing this footage, at least there's level of like professionalism that, you know, whatever. That's the expectation. It feels a little less personal, right? Now, if you have an individual person who is creepily taking your photo or videoing you without you knowing, like that is, it is just, it is very disturbing. So yeah, I hate these things. I think they should be banned. The tie up with the facial recognition company just makes it worse, but I already just hate that they exist at all. Well, and what they've done, if you will see, is meta Ray Bands is fully integrated into Instagram. And so when people take videos of them, it actually is even a de facto advertisement for the Ray Bands. They're like, see how it was shot? It's shot on the Ray Bands. And, you know, they have all this BS, like, oh, there's a light on and all this stuff. People put tapes on the lights. It's a whole industry now of all of these undercover people, you know, prank YouTubers and all of this. Like what possible benefit of putting spy cams, which you can blast out on social media, could ever come to society? We should cover this soon. I don't know if you saw it. The UK just banned social media for all children under the age of 16. I did see that. I was like, wow, incredible. Like just out of, he just came out and he's like, we're banning it for everyone under the age of 16. And predictably, the Silicon Valley people are freaking out about it. They're like, oh no, this is about government control. I'm like, yeah, exactly. Because we don't want to be under your control. At least in the government, you have somewhat of a democratic input, as opposed to what? What should I become a shareholder of meta for my measly $500 and register my complaints? It's, we have no control over these people and these cameras are everywhere. Between ring, have I told you about ring and the police thing? It's nuts. Like if you have a ring camera and a crime is committed, the police can just send you a request for all 10 blocks, let's say, of a suspect and be like, submit anonymously all your video. I mean, you're under, no matter where you walk around, you are completely under surveillance, by the state, by private car companies. And you know what else they do? They feed all of that also into these AI companies to help with their training data and develop their whatever. Anyway, it's very disturbing. All right, let's talk a little bit about the economic fallout of the Iran war that may continue even though a deal is struck. So we have a memo of understanding for a 60 day negotiation period, a lot that could go wrong with regard to this potential deal with Iran, which we've covered other places in the show. But we wanted to take a look at the economic fallout and assuming the best case scenario, assuming this all goes swimmingly and the Strait of Hormones opens imminently, what is likely to be the continued lag effects? How quickly can we expect oil markets in particular to get back to normal? So New York Times has an interesting write up here. They say, deal to reopen Hormuz kicks off a long effort to ease the energy crisis. Because remember, we've had months at this point of things not being normal. And if there's one thing we learned both from Ukraine and from the COVID shock, it can take a while before the kinks get worked out of the system till things truly revert to the way that they were before. There's also some indications they may need to be re-opened. There's also some indications they may never completely return to the way that they were before. Let me read you a little bit from this piece. They say, the long awaited deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz brought quick relief to the oil market, sending prices to their lowest level since early March. Getting substantial amounts of oil and gas will however will take much longer. It can take weeks or months, even in the best of times, to get oil and gas from wells in the Persian Gulf to buyers in China or Japan. The first big test for whether the deal will work is whether it gives shipping companies enough confidence to send their vessels through the Strait. If they do, tankers that have been strained in the Persian Gulf will be able to bring much needed fuel to buyers around the world. What comes after that will depend a lot on how long companies think the reopening will last. The US and Iran agreed to a 60 day truce during which they would try to breach a broader agreement on Iran's nuclear weapons program and US sanctions against the country. So, Soghar, what they point to here is the fact that, a lot of the reason that ships have not been transiting the Strait of Formuz is obviously the war led to an inability to transit and there were mines in the Strait. But also, even if you wanted to, you were not gonna be able to get insurance. The shipping companies that own these giant tankers are not willing to take that risk. And so now you have a situation that continues to be very tenuous. Are they going to be able to get insurance in the near term? Are they going to wait the 60 days until a deal is actually secured before they begin transiting again? So it will be a further delay before traffic fully returns to normal. You also have a situation where everybody's stockpiles have dramatically diminished. So there's very low levels in our strategic petroleum reserve as well as countries around the country. So there's going to be further increased demand as things come back to normal. All of this is to say that it may still be a while before things truly return to anything approximating what they were before the war. Right, and if we look at some of the oil markets and others, so for example, Brent Crude is currently trading around $80 a barrel. I think that the West Texas is somewhere around 70. We should begin to see gas prices come, which is good. We're gonna see it's still about $4 a gallon nationally. It'll probably normalize around 350 or so, but that's the problem. Is 350 is still at least a dollar higher or so than where things were before the war began. And people are going to remember that they still had to pay those 100 days of $4 a gallon gasoline as things continue. The important point that they make inside of this story around the St. of Hormuz and the resumption of oil traffic is the amount of slack in the system now is basically completely gone. For example, let's put D2 up here on the screen. This is the US energy secretary who was speaking just a week ago who said, quote, it will take many months to get back to normal after this energy crisis. And the specific thing that he points to is around the shifting of supply chain. And so what we were talking about a lot of time during the blockade was it takes like 40-something days from a tanker to get from Asia to the United States. And then another 40 days, I could be wrong on the exact number of days, but something like that to go back. And so so many different supply chains have been redirected from Asia to America or from America to Asia that reshifting and coming back to the Strait of Hormuz, it takes months. And there's also all the excess oil that was in the system is gone basically. And the example of this I think we have is about, what was it, yeah, D5 please that we can put up here. You can actually see in this chart what we have is the barrels of crude in the US Petroleum Reserve are literally at their lowest level since the 1980s. So since Ronald Reagan was president, the US Petroleum Reserve has never been this low. And what the oil executives say is that with all these dwindling stockpiles, it basically just means you're gonna have some level of demand destruction. For oil facilities and others, as we've described, we still don't even know what level they were operating at. Rory made a real point of telling us here on the show. It's not that simple to go from 10% to 80. You have all the storage which is backed up. And if any of these refineries were taken completely to zero, that's not, I mean, it takes a while for everything to spin back up. And you still have all these shifts, the UAE, left OPEC, they're gonna be pumping as much as they possibly can. Saudi Arabia and others, it could be even a price war, which could cause problems. So there's just gonna be chaos, I think in the markets for probably at least a year or so. So they say in this piece too, that a lot of oil and natural gas producers, they, some of them shut their wells. Some of the oil fields, there was significant damage that occurred during the war as well. So are you going to do the difficult work of bringing everything back online, of repairing everything when things continue to be uncertain at least for the 60 day period? According to this New York Times report, Gulf country slash up to 15 million barrels a day of oil production this spring, that's nearly 15% of global supply. So you have to judge, okay, is it worth going back to the production levels we had, which is not a simple and straightforward thing, or are we gonna wait a little bit longer and see if this thing really comes to fruition, see how this all completely shakes out. You know, with regard to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, we can go ahead and put D4 up on the screen here as well. Cause you can see that we are still a long way from getting back to the normal level of traffic within the Strait. This tweet says claims about Hormuz reopening are exactly why we built this. If ships start moving through the Strait with AIS transporters on, you'll see it in the index updated every 30 minutes. So this will certainly be something to pay attention to as we see how companies read the political dynamics and how certain they are that this deal is going to come through and it's going to ultimately be solid. The other thing I was looking at this morning, Sagar, is some aspects of the energy market are likely not to go back to normal ever because I think just like there were a lot of learnings from Ukraine and Russia, there was a big realization here, certainly, in other places as well, that as long as you are reliant on global energy markets, your whole economy can be held hostage, right? You are truly at risk. And so during the course of this war, there was a massive increase in demand for Chinese solar panels and for EV cars. That technology has really come of age now where it can be a reliable and affordable alternative, both at sort of the nationwide level and also at the individual consumer level. And so countries that have started to shift in that direction are not likely to shift back because they don't want to find themselves in this situation again. And the technology has advanced even in just, you know, the several years since the Ukraine war began to make it a much more feasible alternative. So I guess thank you to Trump for helping to speed up the renewable energy transition. We appreciate your servicer. Dean Baker, I think he was from the Washington Post. You wrote this very interesting story about how BYD should award Trump salesman of the year. And I was reading the data. It's unbelievable the amount of cars that they have been able to export and to sell actually in the interim last six months. They're actually rolling out all kinds of new technology, which, you know, I've been wanting to cover some of this stuff for a while. One of them is a flash charger, which can take your car from 10 to 70% in five minutes. I mean, on a supercharger with a Tesla, I mean, you're probably looking, I did it this weekend for at least 15 minutes or so. And that's assuming, you know, there's some idiot parked next to you, even when there's five other stalls that are open. Or that the chargers are broken. Or the chargers, I mean, I'll say, the Tesla's chargers are never broken, but the, what is it, EV America or not never broken, but I forget exactly what they are. The private other companies are awful, they in terms of the infrastructure. But I saw that and I was like, man, I mean, if you make charging similar to just filling up a gas tank, like that is changes the whole ball game. I even saw, I think they can go 10 to 90, I think in 10 minutes, which is shocking, right? You know, for hundreds of miles of charge to be able to go, like, I don't know. I mean, I see that and I see also, you have this feeling of abandonment by the United States in all of these different countries. We talked a lot about Asia over the last several months. Well, it's gonna be very difficult for them to keep a superior product and to really just like align itself with America over this period. I really do think that this, we will live with the consequences of that for a really long time. On top of Tesla, I mean, if you look, they don't even want to be a car company anymore. That's one kind of thing which is crazy. They want to become a robot taxi and robot company. They want nothing to do with the car business. They've ended the production of some of their models, explicitly just to move to, what is it, cyber cab, they're a robot taxi and then to robots. They say it in their own production documents. So they're almost acquiescing in certain ways. Anyway, yeah, I mean, it's a tangent, but I was fascinated by that in terms of how the war could significantly accelerate EV adoption in the rest of the world, which is de facto good for China and for their market. I mean, the only reason our domestic car producers are competitive in the EV market at all is because we cannot buy B-LiD. I mean, it would be over for them if we were allowed to purchase their vehicles because they're just more technologically advanced. And yeah, if we had the infrastructure here and we had that level of tech, it would be only a matter of time before the full transition happened because the technology genuinely is superior. Like not having to go to the gas station fill up is great. There's less maintenance on the car, not having to get the little light coming on. Oh, you got to get your oil changed again. It's great. The way they drive is fantastic. It is going to be the future. It's just a matter of time. And the Trump administration has this ideological war on EVs and any sort of renewable energy that has precluded us from moving more aggressively in that direction. But ultimately, I think the technology will win out. Yeah, it's certainly possible. All right, let's get to the polls. Very interesting interview with a maga grandma who was a big Trump supporter and now says she is so upset over the price increases that she is seeing and the Trump economy that she is having literal panic attacks. Let's take a listen to what she had to say. I actually had panic attacks. I've had a couple of this past week and I get very emotional over it. I don't want to work anymore, but I can't afford to retire. Obviously, President Trump is immensely wealthy. He has been wealthy since he was born. Yeah. Do you think he understands? No. No, he hasn't lived it to understand it. He sees it, he has not lived it. He needs to live it. Wear the clothes, wear the shoes, wear your Walmart clothes, wear your Walmart shoes. Do your thrift store shopping. Don't eat steaks. I don't get to go out to dinner. It's not an overnight thing, but it's been two years now. You said you'd bring down the grocery prices. Literally, I must be the most angry person when I grocery shop because I buy the same things every week. And I see it jump every week. It is not every couple months. It's literally every week. So she is not happy. Hard to imagine that woman enthusiastically turning up to vote for Republicans in the midterms, given her upset over their hand. Does that mean she'll vote for Democrats? No, probably not. Is she one that just says, you know what? I got other things to do on election day. I'm just not showing up. This party does not deserve my support at this moment. That seems very likely, if not probable. And there was a write up in the New York Times of their recent polling with regard to a group that has long been considered Trump's strongest base of support, which is the white working class. And they are in a very different mindset for these midterms versus where they were for the 2018 midterms. We can put this next element up on the screen. So back in 2018, working class voters approved a Trump on the economy by 30 plus points. So whatever else concerns they may have had, they were like, look, this is working for me. I feel like I've got more money in my pocket. I feel like things are speeding along by 30 points. Now they disapprove of his handling of the economy by as much as that margin. So minus 30 points. And then they have a deeper look at the way some of these voters are feeling about Trump. And that really is a night and day difference between this term and the last time he was an office otter, where I think a big part of the reason he got back into office is because people looked at that time and were like, well, I felt pretty good about the economy then and I feel pretty bad about the economy now. So this guy is his businessman, that's his core brand. Now between not only the tariffs, but obviously the tariffs and the Iran war, people feel completely differently where his lowest approval ratings are on the economy, on inflation and on cost of living. So when you consider how will these midterms compare with what was a very negative midterm result for them in 2018, I think all the signs are there that this will be an even bigger wave for Democrats. I think what's interesting about the working class polls, and if you read very deeply into all of these numbers, the blue collar white voters, and that maga grandma is like a perfect example. Now these people are not Democrats. Like it's actually very clear. And I think even one of our guests yesterday was talking about this as well with young men. Yeah, Luke was saying this. Luke was like, look, these people aren't Dems, but they're still mad. And being mad, sometimes they can be converted a significant slice and ultimately as the tried expression goes, it comes down to turnout. But in 2018, the white working class had a very low drop in the amount of approval that Donald Trump has had. But now, I mean, you're near 40% in terms of the reservoir of goodwill, it's completely evaporated. I also think it was such a potent talking point back in 2024, make America 2019 again. How could somebody not want that? I mean, you know, you had low inflation, you had decent growth, yes. You know, what was the famous saying that they were like, all I had were some bad tweets. It's like, yeah, okay. I mean, seems tolerable in comparison to what we've just had to experience over the last four years. But now, when you have a bad economy, you have no reduction in inflation. You actually have an increase in the overall inflation. You have no change in overall housing. And you have, oh, how long has Trump been in office? Almost two years. No, it was a year and a half or so. An almost total and complete focus at this point on foreign affairs with the signature achievement and memory. Ultimately, when we write the history books on the admin, this is it. And everybody knows it, including the people who are involved, from the Israeli side and from the anti-war side. Everybody knows that war ultimately defines everything about your presidency. And so that's what he decided to make his ultimate gamble on. And with the economy continuing in the direction that it already was even before the Iran War, on top of what just happened, it's very obvious that even those people coming back, it's gonna be very, very difficult. You would have to see a massive material change in the US economy, which on autopilot, we know that's not happening. Absent significant government intervention. Yeah, well, and this ties in with the block we just did about how, look, you may have a deal. It may even come together in 60 days. There's still gonna be months. And the Trump administration is outright saying this. Months of disruption to the energy markets. Things are not going to just go back to the way that they were. And voters understand where to place the blame. Because he, I mean, I think because he has such a, larger than life personality, takes such personal control over everything anyway. And then also because the tariffs in the war are directly laid at his feet. So you know why you're paying more at the pump. And the other peace-sogger is, he hasn't done himself any favors rhetorically. When you come out and you say, quote, I love the inflation. Yes, yeah. When you come out and you say, I don't think about Americans financial situation at all. You don't think Democrats are gonna run that on a loop until election day 100%, as they should. And you can claim it was out of context. We played for you the entire context. No, he was articulating exactly what it sounded like. He was articulating. And I think that comes through in that woman's comments as well where she says, he hasn't lived it. So he doesn't understand. I want him to go on and wear the Walmart clothes and know what it's like for us struggling to get by. Another area that's interesting, put the last element here up on the screen is, there was a lot of fanfare about the significant gains that Trump had made among working class Latino men in particular, but among Latinos overall. Man, that has also fallen off a cliff. You now have 64% of Latinos with a disapproval of Trump, only 34% approve. 77% of voters between ages 18 and 29 disapprove of Trump compared to 21% who approve. So also the vaunted improvement with young voters, that has all dissipated. Again, that doesn't mean these people have become like resistance liberal Democrats, super excited to vote for like Roy Cooper in North Carolina or whatever. But these tend to be infrequent voters, they're just not gonna show up. They're just, they're gonna register, they're discussed by staying home on election day. The only group where Trump has maintained solid support is with Republicans and even there, the percent that say that they strongly approve of him has fallen and that is a really significant change from the entirety of his political career since he really came on the scene in 2014, 2015. So that also is gonna have an impact on midterm enthusiasm and who ultimately shows up to vote. The thing of, I don't know whether he truly doesn't care but he certainly acts like he doesn't really care what happens in the midterms anyway. I guess you could make an argument that the very fact that he made such a push for a deal right now is because he was concerned about the political impact but there's just no real side that this is something he's focused on. I have no inside information. This is my theory of observing this man now for a decade depressing. I've spent my entire professional life trying to psychoanalyze this person. I think the way that JD and the Rick Coffin and all those guys got to him was this, sir, and look at the way that they're selling it. We are going to transform the entire Middle East. The way that they sold it to him is like, you will be, it's like you will bring peace, the peacemaker, Trump the peacemaker, to Persia, the first of his name, Donald Trump, to march in the gates of Persia. And he loves that, right? He loved the idea of conquering it. He loves even more the idea of normalizing relations with the whole region. That's why only Trump could attack them, demand unconditional surrender, and then turn them into an economic powerhouse. Like literally nobody else could do that but that's how they appeal to his vanities. Like you will appear in this historic peace deal and that's the way that we'll get everything going. The Israelis did it to him. That's how they got him to attack in the first place. So the other side basically did the same thing. I don't think he cares whatsoever about the midterms because the administration has given up on domestic concerns. Again, like if you vote for Republicans in the midterm elections, what are you voting for? Like what? Well, and it's not like- There's nothing on the table. There's not even like a deal, nothing. Yeah, and the only thing that they really worked with Congress on at all was the big beautiful bill. Correct, which is gone and has been wiped out. Right, yeah, so yeah, I mean, he does, when he wants to do something, he just does it through executive order and implements it and then dares the courts to pull him back, which they mostly haven't done. So he doesn't really care that much about Congress. He himself is immune from criminal investigations of any sort of wrongdoing or as many corrupt dealings, et cetera. So while obviously it's gonna be uncomfortable for a lot of Republicans who are facing subpoenas and various investigations if Democrats are in control, like Trump doesn't care about them either. So I think it's genuine when, that was another thing he said. He said, I don't care about the midterms, remember? He said that. He just- And I think he's right. I think he's telling the truth there. I don't think that he thinks about it all that much because if he did, then you might see some different moves. I don't think he'd be out there saying, I love the inflation and I don't care about your financial situation if he was really thinking about political consequences. I will say, he really should care because it's gonna be Clinton 2.0 if the Dems win. I mean, really it's gonna be a nightmare. Well, the reason you should care is because of that legacy piece because, I mean, it's already, his legacy is already gonna be a mess whether he knows it or not. But if you spend the last two years of your presidency, just having various of your officials like under scrutiny for corrupt dealings and if it's just investigation after investigation and that's what the entire news cycle is about day after day after day, yeah, it's not gonna be a great legacy builder for you. Yeah, I mean, seriously, people should recall like the Clinton administration, they're not, there's some modern histories of 96 to 2000. It was non-stop, the Kenneth Starr nonsense. Like it just went on forever. Like that is what modern Fox News is built off of. Lewinsky and Ken Starr and Whitewater and the Rose Law. Like it was, oh my God, like no president would want to live through that. I mean, you can even see, remember, some of the Obama administration too, whenever he had to deal with the Republican Congress. I mean, it was over for him. They tried to do the grand bargain on Social Security and from that point forward, that's why he did the Iran deal. Actually, in retrospect, that's why he became obsessed with foreign affairs. He couldn't do anything else. So it just, that's just with the House. Now imagine with both part, you know, both the House and the Senate. Yeah. Oh my God, it'll pass nothing, it'll turn into a nightmare, you have total subpoena power. Every day of your White House and administration will be dealt with a new attack, a new hearing, a new trial, I mean, they'll put them on trial. I mean, who even knows, right? They have, you know, all of the bill, every single member of Congress will be required or every single Cabinet official will be living before Capitol Hill. Every guy who ever served in Doge will have a million dollars in private legal bills. Like it's gonna be bad. Epstein investigation, cover up investigations, all the stuff that he clearly did not want to talk about is going to be drag front and center every single day. And I think at this point, I think Democrats will take the House, I think it's more likely than not that they take the Senate as well, which is really crazy because the landscape for them was so difficult coming in. They have to win in places like Ohio and Alaska or Texas to be able to take the Senate. And yet I think given the numbers that we just showed you, I think that is more likely than not, but hey, you never know, we've seen crazy things happen. I mean, Harry Anton gave that warning on the generic ballot. He was like, look, Dems, they're doing well, but they're still not exactly where they need to be because there's still a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party. I think the problem with this analysis is that people may not like the Democratic Party. People didn't love the Republican Party either in 2010, but they hated Obama where they stayed home. So it could work out to their benefit. All right, thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We're about to do the AMA, so you could stick around for that, or I guess you will have watched it already by the time this comes out. They'll be at Wednesday's show. They'll see you then.