the market. Well, the markets are not open today due to a good Friday, but we did get a jobs number that dropped this morning, exceeding expectations. 178,000 jobs added in March. The expectations were for less than half of that at about 70,000. Talk about that and everything else going on. Mark Falter is here. Mid American Wealth! I'm Mark Falter. I'm here with you on Saturday mornings at seven and nine and Sunday mornings at nine. Mark, good morning. Great to have you on the show. Let's just touch on the jobs number from last hour and your reaction to that. Yeah, inflation has been kind of holding steady inflation. I meant unemployment. Yeah, Sorry about that. Unemployment has been holding steady. It was like 4.3. It's, uh, you know, it's been hovering between the two. So that is been that is in my humble opinion. The. What's the word? The kind of thing holding everything together that you know, there's a lot of inflationary pressure potential. Fed hiking market down. You know, I talked about this months ago, and it's kind of happening, but the thing that seems to be holding it together as employment. So that's a very good thing, and I think that's a good thing right now that concerns you the most. Oh, without questions, kind of like what I talked about. That is the we had it. We had a bubble formulating, and now we're seeing the bubble deflate. Now, do I think it's going to be a 50% decline? No, but I think we could definitely see equity down eight or nine on the markets. I think we could see as far as 20% down, um, arguably more. I don't know that it was going to go that far in the last few years. But I think you're going to see so much debt with some of these companies, and I think you're going to see it be a kind of like a little mini 1999. Very, very, very good time for somebody over 60 to reallocate and take some chips off the table. And for that 20 30 year old get ready to buy because it's this is when you actually for that 20 or 30 year old that's running scared opposite thing you want to do. This is when you make your money in the market. So what's what's the like? What's the rate of the debt from the AI companies where eventually the chickens come home the roost or is it 100% so which has nothing to do with the war? No, the war is not helping and the war is draining gas prices up and it's causing what we see to be the equivalent of inflation because gas prices are going up and if you think about it, I mean, that's for the average American country. So it's going to be the equivalent of the amount of money that we spend money on every month consistently that's going up in price and ultimately it's going to then affect probably even the higher one than gas is food. It's going to ultimately work its way into food and then it's going to work its way into fast food. Then it's going to work its way in the groceries because all of that stuff has gas prices in it. You got to get that stuff to the store. So it's going to continue to do that. I don't quite understand that because we got oil and now we got other countries oil, but it's the way things are going. Gas prices are going up. And is that driven by, I mean, just because it's a global market where even if we've got a good production here, those companies, you know, they can sell it all over the world and that's just a supply and demand thing globally. Is it as simple as that as to why these gas prices keep going up? Yeah, and I think, I don't know, you know, that's the area that I get a little dice on, but I almost think that in about three or four months, people are going to be realizing, oh, we got a lot of oil. You know, we got Venezuela's oil. We got all this and it's really not that bad, but it's driving it up and I think it's more of a reaction or everything right now. Um, it's, you know, so we have, we have beat the living crowd out of Iran. That is for sure. And I don't think we're quite done yet. So now what is this jobs report mean this morning along with what's going on with the war when it comes to interest rates and how that comes to interest rates and how that can impact mortgage rates? Yeah, I think what you're seeing is mortgage rates up and I think the Fed. Fed is going to be, I don't know what they're going to do, man. They're they're now my thoughts of them lowering have diminished. I think potentially we could see a rate hike to try to, uh, you know, with inflationary pressure and all that stuff trying to slow that down and that would not be good for home sales for sure because what you got now is you got that 30 year old 40 year old couple. Things are tightening up and rates are going up. It's like Jesus almighty. It's going to start slowing down real real estate. I think we could see a mini recession happen for sure. Um, yeah, this year and I think again, one of the biggest reasons is you got to I don't know that we understand the magnitude of the amount of debt that these AI companies because they're not going to be able to do that. Everybody is wanting to be the front runner. And so it takes a ton of money and it is kind of cool because you get something on some of these, uh, um, AI. Apps that are free and it is absolutely amazing what these things can figure out for you in seconds that used to take you hours to do, you know, and they want to be the front runner and so they figure will make it back. But some I think won't and some won't. And so if you're not going to be the front runner and you're not going to be the one to be the one to be which one's willing which one won't Mark Falter. That's the trillion dollar question here. The key to the key to success there. Pete is diversification. I'm not kidding. Yeah. No, you're right. You're bet on each side. That's so true. That's so true. Mark Falters joining us on KCMO talk radio. I'm going to talk about the big pullback and it hasn't happened the last couple of years. There are there are warning signs out there, though that this year could be different. What are the things in the months to come that you'll be watching that could signal? Hey, that 20% pullback is is finally here. I think the debt of companies, uh, and, uh, what's going on with AI AI is it's the debt of these companies. We really dig in deep and look at what's going on on the books of some of the eye flying stocks and what's the success rate. What could happen if worst case scenario kind of like what we had to do during COVID. During COVID, it was an interesting time. You had to get into some of these companies because we buy a lot of fixed income vehicles, meaning they produce dividends and interest. So we're really, we really, really care about the, um, uh, fact of how much money is this company making? How much the, how much cash are they sitting there with? Um, and, um, and that's why we use the, you know, Bloomberg terminals and dig into what we look at. Um, what night, you know, our clients are actually up slightly so far this year, but we do a lot of fixed income and our clients will in it for the dividends and interest. Most of the people that are investing with us. Um, so it actually doesn't make for a terrible year with us, but economically, those that are in, you know, 70, 80% percent, I tell you that they retiree at 65 years old. Here's what my concern is. Again, we, we try to avoid this in our, in our practice, but that 65 year old is two to three years out from retirement or even just retired. They need to Google what could happen if I get a bad sequence of returns my first 10 years in retirement. It can be catastrophic. I mean, it, you know, in 1990, if you'd had a million dollars pulled 40 grand a year out of it for income all the way to year 2000, you'd have made money, but do it again the next 10 years and you'd have turned it into under 400,000 because of a bad sequence of returns in the market. And I think we could see one this year. Well, you know, it's so true. Like, you know, I sit here in my mid to late thirties. I mean, none of this really, listen, I don't want anything to go down, but to your point, you know, you just keep doing your thing and you wake up one day on your 60 and you should be in a pretty good spot. But when I hear from people and because of the politics and everything else, oh boy, you know, Trump's killing me and it's from a 60 year old guy who's like, you know, about to retire. It's like you should not be playing this game anyway. You know, I mean, you're killing yourself. Yeah, it's got nothing to do with Trump. You've you've you're getting greedy thinking you're gonna ride these big tech stocks to the moon. I'm telling you, Pete, if we have seen one thing through office because we get a lot of people in from other advisors and we see what other what's going on and it's not all the advisors fault. People retirees. I'm talking about people in general. I'm talking 60, 65, 70. They have been getting very optimistic. They have been getting very optimistic in the last three years. Let's put it that I won't say greedy, but very optimistic. We've been telling guys, dude, this is going to pull back. It's going to pull back and it's pulling back and I think it could get worse. I would if I was a betting man, I definitely bet on it getting worse for it gets better this year. Okay. And I would not want to be dealing with that at 67 or 68. Yeah, it's a good point. Hey, Mark, keep up the great work. We'll be following. We'll be watching and we'll be listening tomorrow at seven and nine to retirement income hour. Thanks so much. Hey, thanks. See you. Have a great day. Mark Falter, retirement income hour seven and nine on Saturday mornings and then again, Sunday mornings right here on KCMO Talk Radio 9 95 7 FM Mid America Wealth Advisory Group. Vince Cone's is redefining news talk. I'm Vince Cone's host of the Vince podcast. I'm bringing you the truth beneath the headlines of all of the nation's top stories in depth interviews. We feature newsmaking interviews with the top guests on the whole planet and I'll ask the questions you only dream of other interviewers asking and a front row seat to the most important conversations of the day. It's a show with an obsessive focus on what's good for America. You are going to love Vince the Vince show following. Listen on your favorite platform. Hi, I'm Joe Salci. I hosted the stacking Benjamin's podcast. You know what? A lot of us get Texas wrong. Filing your taxes is basically data entry. There's been this trend of people going oh, it's so cool to follow my taxes in August. It's so awesome. Don't worry. I have an extension. It'll be fine. I like totally do it later. Stop. Do your friggin taxes now. That was a really good fashion voice. Did you like it? You do that more frequently, please? Yes, every show from now on. Stacking Benjamin's. Follow and listen on your favorite platform.
