One last ride on this year's coaching carousel
70 min
•Feb 12, 20262 months agoSummary
The Athletic Football Show discusses the 2025 NFL coaching carousel, analyzing the hiring of Clint Kubiak (Raiders) and Michael Fleur (Cardinals) as head coaches, alongside broader concerns about diversity in coaching hires and the league's preference for offensive-minded coaches despite limited success.
Insights
- The 2025 coaching cycle reveals a thinner offensive coaching talent pool, forcing teams to compromise on candidate quality compared to previous years' Ben Johnson or Liam Cohen-caliber hires
- Zero Black head coaches hired in this cycle, reducing the total from 5 to 3, indicates systemic pipeline failures at offensive coordinator and quarterback coach levels rather than just head coaching discrimination
- Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's firing was driven by quarterback evaluation failure (JJ McCarthy) and draft history rather than analytics philosophy, yet will be misinterpreted as evidence against analytical GMs
- Teams defaulting to familiar coaching trees (McVay, Shanahan, LaFleur) creates self-perpetuating cycles that limit diversity and fresh perspectives in hiring decisions
- Offensive coach hiring preference (6 of 10 hires) directly constrains diversity since Black coaches are underrepresented in offensive coordinator pipelines due to bottlenecks at lower coordinator levels
Trends
NFL teams increasingly prioritizing offensive play-calling head coaches over defensive or CEO-type coaches despite inconsistent success ratesCoaching tree nepotism (McVay, Shanahan, LaFleur branches) dominating hiring decisions, reducing openness to outside candidatesBlack coaches stuck in QB coach and passing game coordinator roles with minimal advancement to offensive coordinator positionsTeams hiring non-play-calling offensive coordinators (LeFleur, Nagy) as head coaches, lowering traditional qualification standardsQuarterback evaluation becoming the primary metric for GM job security, overshadowing draft history and roster buildingRooney Rule interviews functioning as performative box-checking rather than genuine candidate evaluationAnalytics-driven front offices facing cultural resistance from traditional 'football guys' despite proven success modelsDefensive coordinator hiring showing different diversity problems than offensive side, with qualified Black candidates overlookedSuper Bowl success creating artificial urgency in hiring decisions (Vikings firing Kwesi after Sam Darnold's playoff run)Offensive line coaching becoming critical differentiator for new head coaches' success, particularly with young QBs
Topics
NFL Head Coaching Hires 2025Diversity in NFL Coaching HiringOffensive vs Defensive Coach PhilosophyCoaching Tree Influence and NepotismQuarterback Evaluation and GM AccountabilityRooney Rule EffectivenessAnalytics in NFL Front OfficesOffensive Coordinator PipelineBlack Coaches in NFL LeadershipSuper Bowl Coaching Staff DynamicsDraft History and GM PerformanceCoaching Staff Retention and PoachingOffensive Line Coaching ImpactQuarterback Development SystemsNFL Ownership Decision-Making
Companies
Las Vegas Raiders
Hired Clint Kubiak as head coach; discussed as attractive job due to #1 pick and Tom Brady's presence
Arizona Cardinals
Hired Michael Fleur as head coach; analyzed as alternative to Raiders with better roster but QB uncertainty
Minnesota Vikings
Fired GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah after season; discussed as knee-jerk decision following Sam Darnold's playoff success
Seattle Seahawks
Clint Kubiak's previous team as offensive coordinator; offense analyzed as solid but not elite
San Francisco 49ers
Hired Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator; discussed regarding defensive philosophy continuity
Buffalo Bills
Hired Jim Leonard as defensive coordinator; analyzed as strong hire for Super Bowl contender
New York Giants
Hired Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator; criticized as uninspired choice under John Harbaugh
New York Jets
Hired Frank Reich as offensive coordinator; discussed as concerning hire for struggling franchise
Baltimore Ravens
Hired Declan Doyle from Bears as offensive play caller; discussed as smart hire from innovative offense
Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay's team; discussed as source of coaching tree influence and hiring patterns
Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Nagy's previous team; discussed regarding his performance as offensive coordinator
Detroit Lions
Referenced for innovative offense; Ben Johnson discussed as gold standard coaching hire
Philadelphia Eagles
Howie Roseman discussed as successful analytics-driven GM who learned people management
Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson's team; discussed as source of innovative offensive system
People
Clint Kubiak
Hired as Las Vegas Raiders head coach; analyzed as solid but imperfect offensive candidate from Seahawks
Michael Fleur
Hired as Arizona Cardinals head coach; discussed as uninspired hire from Rams coaching tree
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
Fired as Vikings GM; analyzed for poor QB evaluation (JJ McCarthy) and draft history despite analytics approach
Fernando Mendoza
Prospect for Raiders #1 pick; discussed as mobile QB with play-action system fit for Kubiak
Sam Darnold
Vikings QB whose playoff success preceded Kwesi's firing; discussed as catalyst for knee-jerk decision
John Harbaugh
Giants head coach hire; discussed as closest thing to slam dunk in 2025 coaching cycle
Sean McVay
Rams coach; discussed as source of coaching tree influence limiting diversity in hiring
Kyle Shanahan
49ers coach; discussed as source of coaching tree and influence on hiring patterns
Matt LaFleur
Packers coach; discussed as example of reserved personality succeeding as head coach
Mike McDonald
Seahawks coach; discussed as successful defensive coach and source of staff hires
Raheem Morris
Hired as 49ers defensive coordinator; discussed as hire with history with Kyle Shanahan
Jim Leonard
Hired as Bills defensive coordinator; discussed as hot defensive coordinator candidate
Matt Nagy
Hired as Giants offensive coordinator; criticized for poor Chiefs tenure and uninspired hire
Frank Reich
Hired as Jets offensive coordinator; discussed as concerning hire for struggling franchise
Declan Doyle
Hired as Ravens offensive play caller; discussed as smart hire from innovative Bears offense
Howie Roseman
Eagles GM; discussed as successful analytics-driven executive who learned people management
Ben Johnson
Lions offensive coordinator; discussed as gold standard for offensive coaching hires
Brian Flores
Discussed as overlooked defensive coach candidate despite innovative defensive schemes
Vance Joseph
Discussed as overlooked defensive coach candidate compared to less-qualified hires
Patrick Graham
Discussed as overlooked defensive coordinator candidate with strong resume
Quotes
"I think my main impression is it's cool that the Raiders bit off the play caller and offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champions."
Dave (co-host)•Early in Kubiak discussion
"If you're taking the Raiders job right now, you have pretty clear cut access to a quarterback. They're the only team in the draft that's going to get clear cut access to a quarterback."
Derek (co-host)•Raiders vs Cardinals comparison
"We are now down to three guys. And so, there's been a lot of talk about how this happens. It's a lot of stuff that we've discussed many, many times over the years when it comes to the efficiency of the Rooney Rule."
Robert Mays (host)•Diversity discussion
"The problem is none of them are becoming coordinators. None of them. We had 17 new offensive play callers hired in this cycle. 17. 11 of them as OCs, no black offensive coordinators."
Robert Mays (host)•Coaching diversity analysis
"This is not a pipeline issue. And like people again, like there are coaches who are in those roles who could be promoted or could be hired away into those roles. But if it's not happening at all and like we can say, oh, the rules are the rules and guys are getting chances. But again, if none of them are being hired, then it doesn't really matter."
Robert Mays (host)•Rooney Rule effectiveness discussion
Full Transcript
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The main goals are of to be used. Who the world will understand today, must go back to 1979. In his new book, The 21st century, which began in 1979, he tells Maarten van Rossum how decisive this period was for our time. Compact, sharp and on-scanbaar Maarten van Rossum. For everyone who wants to watch more than the actuality. Now in the Boekhandel. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Kind of our last show looking back on what happened over the last couple weeks. We mentioned this when we were recording with me, Dave, and Derek. A lot of stuff happened news-wise during Super Bowl week, even when we were flying to San Francisco that we just didn't have a chance to hit. We had two head coaching hires, Clint Kubiak going to the Raiders, Michael Fleur going to the Arizona Cardinals. Cuesi Dofomenso was fired as the GM of the Vikings. We had a bunch of coordinator news that's rolled out over the last week. So that's what we spent this entire show talking about. We talked a lot about Clint Kubiak going to the Raiders. It happens when there's only like three or four things to hit, but we wanted to hit all this stuff. We did not want to get to kind of our true off-season coverage and the stuff that's going to be looking forward before we had discussions about the last few dominoes to fall in the coaching cycle. So really enjoy this conversation with Dave and Derek. Let's get to it right now. I don't know how you guys are feeling today, but this is a, it feels like a little surreal being back in here after being in San Francisco for a week. Like I just feel like I teleported back home and I've been like transported to back to a different reality. I'm having trouble getting my arms around it. I have the worst case of whiplash right now. Like it's all the, all the work and, and learning and, and dedication of working through the season. And we don't even, we're not even at a parade. Like the Seahawks are at a parade right now. We're just, we're here getting ready for 2026, but that's okay. Derek, how are you feeling out there? You had like a three hour drive home. You drove home after the game and slept in your own bed, which is the, I've never been more jealous of another person. Which while I was doing it, I regretted it. And then as soon as I got back home, I was like, that was the correct decision. But yeah, you fight through with the knowledge that your head will be on your pillow like that totally worth it I was very jealous too once you unlock the door you're like oh my god okay I did it it was worth it but even then it's like I my my process of like okay I'm gonna drive home it'll give me a little bit more time to like reset I'm not gonna have to wake up on Monday and travel and all that and I thought the two days would be like a full reset and I feel like I'm at like 75% going back into it I came home yesterday because the flights were so crazy on Monday. And so I spent like a solid nine days in San Francisco, which by the way, lovely time. Like I enjoyed it so much. Here's what I will say about San Francisco and the San Francisco Super Bowl experience. San Francisco is like one of the gems of America as a city, like everything that it has to offer, like the, all the neighborhoods, the cuisine, I mean, just the topography and just how beautiful everything is. Like it is truly one of the great American cities. It is not a good Super Bowl city. Like I just I was glad that we got to spend a week there. I do not think it sets up well for the Super Bowl itself. Okay, I will push back a little bit. It could be a great Super Bowl city. And I'm not going to wade into the politics of the region. I'm not educated on it. But maybe if the stadium was at candlestick point, I don't know. Like if it was where it was for generations, if the stadium was accessible from the actual city of San Francisco, I think it would be pretty badass. I don't know. Maybe next time you need a stadium, whenever that is, consider building it near the city of San Francisco instead of 50 miles away. I also hate the stadium. It's awful. I hate the stadium. I have pictures that I will, they're very funny. Like there was one of Jordan Roderick just standing, every single one of us, we were all sitting in the same section. The way that the sun pours into Levi's stadium, like there is a section of the afternoon. It was only 60 degrees outside, but you're just sitting there and it feels like you're 10 feet from the sun. All of us were holding up our roster cards to block the sun during an NFL game. I was like, who built this place? They should be in jail. And lest we sound like whiny sports writers, which we are, but even if like, I know that Niner season ticket holders and people that go to Niners games talk about this. They pour that place. Yes, they absolutely do. And so very happy, very privileged to do this job. I was joking all day Sunday. San Francisco, amazing. And other parts of the Bay too, by the way. I spent some time in Oakland while I was there. I've been to San Jose several times because it's the closest major city to the stadium. I love everything about the Bay. It's real weird when on Super Bowl Sunday after this week of crescendo, you're in an office park 50 miles away at an uninspiring stadium. It, it, it was not the cap off that the week deserved. So get that thing back up to candlestick point. And I'll go to bat for San Francisco as like one of the best possible Super bowl. So yeah, I'm a hundred percent on board with that, but not, not right now. I think my take is that it was a great Superbowl city for the week. It's a very bad game day, Superbowl city. It's a very, You didn't have to go to the media availability stuff. Right. That's true. If you're a writer covering either of the teams. If you're a B reporter, it sucks. And you're on a bus for four hours a day, that's not overly enjoyable. The city itself was amazing. I'll do a recap of the food on my Instagram account. I know we don't have to go through it all here, but I had 10 crazy good meals. You guys were there for a couple of them, but I ate extremely well in San Francisco. I could do a podcast on how much I loved San Francisco. We don't have to right now, but very, very nice. Before we turn the page to truly like 2026 offseason stuff, before we get into pre-combine coverage, before we even start talking, I know you guys have been doing on Billy and the Beast, before we really start looking at the draft, I wanted to do one more show about some of the news that happened over the last couple weeks. Because like we said, we were in San Francisco, we're doing all these Super Bowl podcasts, we're talking about the game itself. There were some things that happened we just didn't have a chance to get to. Two head coaches got hired, I believe, since the last time we talked about any coaching news. One general manager got fired and we've had plenty of coordinator news come out over the last week or so. And so I wanted to do one more show before we hit our typical biggest questions of the offseason podcast that we do at the Friday of every Super Bowl week before we fully moved on to the stuff that's going to be looking ahead. So let's dig into that. Let's start with the man who coached in the Super Bowl. And even though we all knew it, he had to like confirm it after the game was over that he was going to be coaching the Raiders. Clint Kubiak officially introduced as the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. We haven't really talked about this in terms of like the quality of the hire or what you think of it. We've just kind of been like, oh, yeah, Clint Kubiak is the coach of the Raiders. So let's sit in this for a second. What do you think about Clint Kubiak and the fit with Las Vegas? I think my main impression is it's cool that the Raiders bit off the play caller and offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champions. And I saw this somewhere well before it was official, but when it was starting to really look likely that Kubiak was going to be a hire, probably right around the time Tom Brady couldn't stop talking about him during the NFC title game. This is the first time the Raiders have made this sort of hire, like a high level assistant from the Super Bowl participant, Super Bowl champion, since they got Mike Shanahan in, I think, 1989 coming off San Francisco. And that ended in disaster. but I think it's the last play car they hired Gruden which is obviously a very different thing yes yeah but coming off of like a Super Bowl team and so I just think it speaks to the relative attractiveness of the Raiders job compared to what it's been over most of the last like 20-25 years like you have the number one pick you're going to be able to take a quarterback that most people would be excited to work with I think Tom Brady lends some gravitas and some credibility to that organization that has badly needed it for a while. And pairing Fernando Mendoza with a guy that was able to get this out of Sam Darnold and get the Seahawks offense where it was in short order. And again, this was an offense that a lot of people were not in love with heading into the season. I think that's very exciting. It was essentially down to the Raiders and the Cardinals. He probably could have had his choice of either of those. And I'm not surprised you'd rather be the head coach of the Raiders. Very objectively, isn't that right? Yeah, I think that the pathway to a quarterback is the most important part of this because I think there are a lot of similarities otherwise. You've had two organizations that have struggled to be successful. I think we have ownership questions in both places. I think the Raiders would probably like to tell you that Tom Brady blunts some of that with his presence there. But I don't think we have enough evidence that he's good at this and that the people in charge of the Raiders are steering this thing in a positive direction. The main difference in my mind, Derek, is that access to a quarterback is a factor in whether guys want these jobs. And if you're taking the Raiders job right now, you have pretty clear cut access to a quarterback. They're the only team in the draft that's going to get clear cut access to a quarterback. I do think and obviously I don't think the Raiders roster was as bad as it probably showed last year. I think like Clint Kubiak coming in can potentially make the offensive line a little bit better. But I do think the Cardinals roster outside of quarterback is a lot more attractive to me. And I think a lot closer to being competitive than the Raiders is. The Raiders have a couple of stars, but they're probably going to lose Max Crosby or he's at least towards the end. The defense needs like nine new pieces. And outside of like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jenta, you have a lot of work to do on the offense. Like I think the Cardinals roster is closer and they were just in a very weird spot last year. They were also incredibly banged up on defense. Yeah, I don't I don't disagree with that. I think the Cardinals probably do have more talent across the roster. I'm not sure it's like measurably different, though. Not only that, I would probably put them like a tier higher. I would. But but then when you get the fact that you actually get a quarterback instead of being like saddled with forty five million dollars of Kyler Murray, that's not even going to be on your team. I do think that tips the scales. They have more usable pieces on defense. I think I think that's fair. Like the young corners, you still. Especially if they're healthy, like their secondary was like dead last year. I think that's right. I think that's probably right. I think on defense, there is more talent, but I'm not sure when I would stack up the two rosters, there's enough of a talent disparity in favor of the Cardinals for me to be like, I'd rather have this job wandering into quarterback purgatory than taking the Raiders. I think in the spirit of the word, like of the spirit of what you're saying, you are right. But who cares if the Raiders have the number one overall pick in the draft in a year where there's a quarterback worth taking? and yeah like the Cardinals have a better roster probably but what does that mean if you're venturing into the wilderness or trying to run it back with Kyler Murray I guess we'll see what happens there also Max Crosby is not even 29 yet and so either you're gonna have him at playing at a high level for I would guess several more years or if he's hell-bent on not being there for this He's a very valuable piece of trade bait. So the Cardinals might win if you played in week 18. That doesn't mean anything to me. Like I would so very much rather be coaching the Raiders right now than the Cardinals. The Max Crosby thing we'll dig into on Friday when we do our biggest offseason questions, because obviously that's going to be one of the bigger trade dominoes to fall. I want to talk a little bit more about what you said about the offensive line, Derek, and the way that we think he can maximize some of these pieces. My first thought when he was an attractive candidate, when he was getting interview requests from every single one of these teams, when he essentially had his pick of these two jobs at the end, I think in a lot of ways, Clint Kubiak's relative attractiveness in this cycle is a signal about the cycle itself. There just weren't that many offensive coaches in this group where people were like, oh, yeah, we got to bang down the door to go get this person. I mean, if you look at the offensive coaches who were hired here, we have Michael Floor, who we'll get to. You have 60 something year old Todd Monken. You have Kevin Stefanski as a retread. You have Mike McCarthy as a retread. And you have Joe Brady, who would not be the head coach of any other team. Right. I mean, he wouldn't have gotten any of these other jobs if he wasn't hired by the Bills would be my guess. And so this is the thing. I understand why the Raiders hired Clint Kubiak. And I think I think it's very easy to be like, oh, well, this team just won the Super Bowl and Sam Darnold played incredibly well. It's got to be a great hire. And I think it can be fine. But like, I'm just not nearly as excited about this as I was like Liam Cohen last year, obviously Ben Johnson. And that's not to say that it can't work out, but it does feel to your point like a lot more representative of the cycle where people are kind of hiring offensive guys almost no matter what. And so I feel like that's kind of says a lot like the fact that Kubiak had not been all that successful until this year. And obviously this year went well and there were times where the Seahawks offense looked great. But like in the aggregate, they were not a special offense. They were fine and better than they should have been, but it's not like it was like watching the Detroit Lions offense or anything like that, or even the Bucs. I think they were less talented than either of those teams, though. And I do I do think that's an important consideration. So I in my like longstanding viewpoint where I want the play calling offensive head coach, I just think when you look at the percentages and I know Mike McDonald just won the Super Bowl. This is a percentages thing. This is a like if you look at the history of what has happened in the NFL over the last 10 years and who is consistently playing in the conference on championship Sunday, offensive coaches make up a lot of that pool. And some of that is self-selecting. We don't have to get into all of that. But this is I have this viewpoint for a reason. My little like, OK, which the boxes that I want checked, typically when I say the seeking out the play calling coordinators to be your head coach, the two things that I usually look at. did you do it without an elite quarterback? Right? If you can do it, if you have a top five, like this is the Mike McCoy corollary. If you do it with Peyton Manning, like it's not as impressive to me as if you do it with, I love Jared Goff, but Jared Goff is very different than Peyton Manning if we're talking about Ben Johnson. And the other part of it is, and I think if you look at the hit rate historically, that's one element. And the other element is, did you do it for multiple years? Did you do it for like multiple years in a row where you had a high level offense without an elite quarterback? And that's why to me, Ben Johnson was like, I'm doing this. Like it may fail, but I'm doing this every single time. Liam Cohen did not check the second box. He only did it for a year. Clint Kubiak, I think, is kind of closer to the Liam Cohen mold, but that worked. And so I understand chasing it. I just think this is a reminder that you're going to have to start cutting corners and making compromises with some of these offensive candidates because the pool was a little bit thinner. But I understand them going this direction. I just think these are imperfect guys when you think about the resumes you want to hire to be your head coach. I mean, that's a theme for this coaching cycle, isn't it? Like what outside of John Harbaugh, I guess, who the Giants identified quickly and it was like very obvious they were going to make that happen. And by the way, you can come up with plenty of arguments against hiring John Harbaugh. Sure can. That's the closest thing to like a slam dunk. And that is a guy who was fired by his team. An older coach who was fired by his team, whose Ravens teams have taken a lot of flack for not getting over the hump. Like there just wasn't a Ben Johnson in this coaching cycle. And so it's funny. I think that raises the question of, and I'm sure we'll get into it here, but is it worth going offense by hook or by crook at the expense of maybe a more qualified, more experienced defensive or CEO type of coach? in this very specific circumstance with the Raiders, they're going to draft Fernando Mendoza. I am very interested in tying my future of the franchise quarterback who's going to be there for at least four or five years to a play calling head coach. If it doesn't work, that sucks. But I like the upside is is high enough that I think it's worth pursuing, even with an imperfect candidate like Kubiak. I don't think we've reached the point where fishing these waters is the wrong move yet. Like Liam Cohen, I think we're retconning a little bit the quality of candidate we thought Liam Cohen was. If he didn't get the Jags job, he would not be the head coach of a team right now. He would be the Bucs offensive coordinator. He tried to go back to Tampa. He forced the Jags hand by saying he would go back to Tampa. And it worked. It worked like gangbusters. Like so far, that is a very good hire. And so I tend to agree with you. I think this was the cycle where if you wanted to go the other way, it would be worthwhile. But for the Raiders specifically, I do understand it, Derek. I haven't watched much of Fernando Mendoza. You have watched much more of him in terms of like the system itself and the way he fits within the offense. I saw him say on McAfee that their like play action system at Indiana was very similar to like what the Shanahan McVay teams do. So there seems to be some shared DNA as to how this can work, but how do you see it working? I just think, and you're going to, you're going to hear this a lot. And this always happens where like Fernando Mendoza is not Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence in terms of like the quality of prospect that doesn mean he not worth taking number one overall and that doesn't mean you can't put a good offense and a good team around him he is absolutely worth being excited about drafting number one overall his arm is perfectly fine he's a very accurate passer Indiana does a lot of fun stuff with play action. He is gritty. It's so cool because like this has been his game forever, but it's so cool that he converted that fourth down in the national title game while everyone was watching because you can just be like, see this. He's been doing this here, but now everyone knows that this is on his skill set. He's not to compare him to another Cal guy because that's where he started out. He's not Jared Goff. Like he's not a statue back there. He can do he we talked about a couple weeks ago with the mobility and the athleticism required of a quarterback these days. He is that guy. I absolutely would be excited. I think Clint Kubiak can build a very fun offense around him. I think some of the stuff that Kubiak's known for with play action and things like that can be very fun. And that's why I'm not Dana and I did this a month or two ago where I was like, should we entertain the idea that the Raiders trade down? or try to get creative with it. Absolutely not. Yeah, I'm out on that. Mendoza's going to be the first overall pick. We can just write that in stone right now. I'm very confident. Just think, Derek, about all the teams that wish they had a clear path to a quarterback this offseason. And like the idea that if you trade this away, yeah, in theory, like you can get the haul. The haul is like door number two is not more attractive to me. Even if Fernando Mendoza is an imperfect prospect, I think you do this every single time. There are very few quarterback classes where if you have the first overall pick, you would want to trade the pick. Like that either means the quarterback, like there are no quarterbacks and like there is no Fernando Mendoza or there are like five of them that could be potentially really good. But even then, wouldn't you want your pick of all of them? Like it doesn't really make any sense to trade out of the first overall pick like that. I mean, I think the time where it did was before the 2024 draft class when you knew the following year, Drake May and Caleb Williams were going to come out in the draft exactly like the Bears did. And even that required a lot of luck because the Panthers were so bad that they didn't have to do any sort of maneuvering to get the number one overall pick. And also, I mean, bad timing for this conversation, but we were nowhere near as consensusly sold on CJ Stroud at the time. No, no. And so I think that there are some differences there from a staff perspective and kind of how I could see this working. I forgot my laptop at home. If you guys need to know how far deep into the offseason we already are. So I'm trying to get by on my iPad right now. From a staff perspective, in account of the areas of the offense we want lifted, I'm curious what happens with John Benton specifically. He is the offensive line coach for the Seahawks. He was with the Saints when Clint Kubiak was there. He is only the offensive line coach. Rick Dennison is actually their run game coordinator, which Rick Dennison has been working with Kubiak doing that stuff for about 25 years now. So in theory, I think if they offered him a promotion, it wouldn't be a lateral move. He would be able to take a job like that because I think the first thing that needs to happen beyond Fernando Mendoza, Derek, is what happens with this offensive line. And I think this is the second year in a row where Clint Kubiak is going to be coming in, trying to fix a team who bottomed out offensively because their offensive line, the ecosystem around it was just so not conducive to success that they had to remake it entirely. And so I think even if they, I said the same thing about the Seahawks last year, even if the Raiders tried out the same five guys along the offensive line this year with Kubiak and whoever the offensive line coach ends up being, they will be better. They also have $90 million in cap space to sign one to two new starters if they want to. And I have to assume that'll be part of the strategy. And that, if anything, is the argument for hiring Clint Kubiak is that if he takes you from like, I'm just throwing out numbers here. Let's say talent-wise, the Raiders offensive line is 25th best in the league. But because of some of the coaching, because of the ecosystem, they played like the 30th. If you can just get them to play like the 21st and get back up a little bit to their level, The same way he raced like it's not like Seattle's offensive line this year kicked ass. They were just like five percent better than they needed to be. And that was really all that that it amounted to. And so if they can do that with the Raiders, you add that on top of quarterback play. That is I don't know if he'll if Mendoza is going to going to immediately be better than than Geno Smith. But if the offensive line is better and you get you keep Bowers healthy, you keep Gente healthy like the offensive could be the offense could be fine. They probably still need a receiver, but it can be fine. I'm talking myself into the Raiders already. Like I just, I just don't know if I can do it again. I just got done being painfully wrong about them being fun to watch this year. And I'm, were they on your wins pool team? They were, they were on Derek's. Maybe that's why Derek is not into it. We, all three of us were like, the Raiders will be a fun seven and 10 team. And they were the worst team in the NFL by an uncomfortable margin. But I'm, I'm ready to sign back up. I'm curious who the defensive coordinator will be, whether it's somebody off that Seahawks staff, Carl Scott, who is their passing game coordinator, has been, he was on Pete Carroll's staff before Mike McDonald kept him. He's somebody that, his background's really interesting. He was at Alabama for a few years and then he was with Zimmer in Minnesota for a couple seasons, maybe just one. And then went to Seattle with Pete Carroll when Pete was trying to kind of differentiate some of the things they were doing on the back end. And then McDonald kept him. And then I knew there were some head coaching candidates this year who, when they were trying to build their staffs, he was somebody that they had potentially in mind to be a defensive coordinator. So that would be one name I would watch. Other kind of like, let's play the name game about how this could work and who we should pay attention to. Clint Kubiak, all season, I don't think he was at the top of mind for a lot of people as a head coaching candidate, just because, I don't know, you watch Clint Kubiak's opening press conference. He is not the most dynamic personality in the world. And I think we should be learning to look past some of that stuff. Mike McDonald is not an orator. And what Mike McDonald just did is really impressive. impressive. And I think that the moment that when Clint said, I think it was during that press conference, which I really appreciated was that Mike would come in on Mondays and like Clint would be nervous about that conversation because he was going to grill him about what worked and what didn't. Like you can build a great program without being somebody who's giving a lot of boisterous speeches. But I think Clint is a pretty reserved guy for the most part. And I was talking to somebody that knows him as we were thinking about the coaching cycle. And I was just asking guys that you think are similar that have had success that maybe could command a team in the room in the same way that he could. And the two names that came up were first, his dad, who is also not like the most exciting personality in the world, and Matt LaFleur. Like that was one of the conversations about Matt LaFleur before he got these jobs. And so I do think there's a path to success if you aren't somebody who is going to be talking and operating like Sean McVay. But Clint Kubiak would definitely be one of those people who does it in a slightly different way. Really quickly, the Matt LaFleur one is actually interesting because he's kind of fiery now. So it's kind of interesting that that was like the talk about him going into it because he seems like a guy who's pretty into it now. Matt LaFleur was the one that said, like, you have to wake up with your piss hot, right? Yeah. I could follow that. To the person who said this to me, I said back a very similar thing in words that I may not repeat on the show, but I was like, Matt has an edge to him that I wonder if Clint Kubiak has. But it seems like you don't have to be a dickhead to create that edge, right? In the same way that Mike McDonald on Mondays was like, we're going to figure this out. What are you guys doing offensively? Like you can create urgency without necessarily being somebody who's like yelling at people. And so I'll be very interested to see how this works out because I've been pretty vocal over the last couple of weeks about how we should seek out potentially different personality types to be these head coaches. This is going to test that theory. So I'll be curious to see how this works out. All right, before we get to the other head coaching hire from last week, let's take a quick break. Global shifts are redefining business. How can you stay ahead? Find the answers on our Think Ahead podcast. Humans make mistakes. The generative AI can outperform and reach superhuman levels of performance. We get ourselves tied up in knots about, oh, we can't analyze the algorithm when what we really need to do is analyze the output and compare it to how good humans would be at that task. Stay informed and stay ahead with the Think Ahead podcast from London Business School. Who will understand the world today, must go back to 1979. In his new book, The 21st century, which began in 1979, let Maarten van Rossum see how decisive this period was for our time. Compact, sharp and on-saccessing Maarten van Rossum. For everyone who wants to watch more than the actuality. Now in the Boekhandel. the last coaching domino to fall before the Clint Kubiak hire Michael Fleur headed to the Arizona Cardinals to be their head coach I you you're already like champing at the bit over there well it did it happened before the Kubiak hire but it coincidentally happened like an hour after word got out that Kubiak yeah the Cardinals know like the Cardinals pivoted with a quickness that made me laugh. Like they had Mike LaFleur's number entered into speed dial for if or when they got rejected. And so what that tells me, the fact that it was Clint Kubiak and Michael Fleur were the two options, Derek, this is very similar. We wanted an offensive guy. These were the last offensive guys on the offensive guy tree. And even if Michael Fleur may not have been the most top of the list candidate, even though he's the offensive coordinator for the Rams, if you're going to go offense, this is the type of guy that you were going to seek out. I'm sure you watched more of the Michael Fleur Jets offense than you ever cared to. So how do you feel about this? He was not that bad as the offensive play caller with the Jets. Obviously those offenses were terrible because the quarterback play was disgusting and the offensive line still wasn't very good. But like, I just, and this is not to say like LeFleur was secretly cooking and he was like ahead of something when he was the Jets offensive coordinator, but I just didn't watch those offenses and feel like they were hamstringing the quarterback or not using their talent correctly. It felt like a passable version of this like Shanahan Kubiak style of offense. And so how much of that he can improve on, I think will be interesting because what's interesting to me is that he started his NFL career in 2014 with Kyle Shanahan on the Browns. And he was a Shanahan guy up until obviously Robert Sala goes to the Jets. He follows him there. And then once he leaves there then he spends three years with uh Sean McVay who is like obviously it's all related it's a lot of same DNA but it's different enough though this is a really important point especially now with Stafford right like if it was during the Jared Goff era I would have been like yeah all that stuff was sort of close enough but I think obviously having more of a depth in the passing game with what it had been with Matthew Stafford more of the drop back game a lot more interesting like empty stuff even the run game now being a lot more like duo and like some of the the linebacker counter and stuff like that I do think hopefully we see some of that added to his repertoire so I'm interested to see what it looks like in terms of what he's trying to put the offense together obviously it's been a while since he's he's actually called plays it's been Sean McVay doing it over there in LA but I'm at least like for where the Cardinals were at in this in this cycle like doing it so late like again I don't know if this hire necessarily jazzes me but it's like kind of it's inoffensive to me I understand the process of it it is inoffensive to me, but that in turn kind of makes it offensive to me. And what I mean by that is it just kind of feels like you've called plays, your name's LeFleur, and you've been hanging out with Sean McVay. Get over here. Well, let's see where this can go. It just kind of gets back to what we were saying at the top, though. Like, that's where we're at with the offensive coaches. If you want an offensive coach, those are the types of guys you're hiring. Do you think teams call, like, how much do they vet like McVay and LaFleur when this stuff happens. Like, hey, do you think this is a good idea? Like, what do you feel about the time that he's spent in your building? I think there's probably some of that, yes. It's not to say, and it's similar to Kubiak. It's not to say that he can't be good or that he's not a good coach, but the process feels uninteresting to me, where it's just like, okay, who's got the right title on the right coaching staff and like what they've actually accomplished feels almost secondary to me. I don't know if I agree with that. Okay. If you, okay. If you just remove the fact that he's Michael Fleur and like, I don't, I think that some of the stuff around Michael Fleur is that like, I don't know, he presents as, you know, maybe it's a little bit, I don't know the right framing and the right phrase to use around this. Presents maybe like a little bit bro-y. He's a little bit, he feels like a little bit young, right? Like even like up at the press conference, just like this looks like I almost say a caricature of like this, the young offensive coach in the NFL. And so maybe there's something a little bit about that. He was the Rams offensive coordinator for three years. Like he was the offensive coordinator of what we all agree to be like the most innovative and forward thinking offense in the NFL. And this is not fair. It's not fair because Kyle Shanahan was the one who, you know, they asked him about letting Clay Kubiak, the other Kubiak, interview for play calling OC jobs. And he was like, he calls plays for us. Why? Like, why would I let my offensive coordinator go? And that's been a Kyle Shanahan thing for a long time. It is not fair to assume that Michael Fleur is not doing anything, but he works with Sean McVay. So how you divvy that up gets complicated when you're not on the inside. Yeah, he's not a play caller, but we've had non-play calling offensive coordinators get some of these jobs. Again, if you're trying to like make compromises about what offensive candidates get hired. And so if we're going to be open to the idea of hiring non-play calling offensive coordinators to be offensive coaches, somebody who just spent three years as the offensive coordinator for the Rams is objectively like an OK person to hire for one of these jobs. I also think the last hire felt to me like more uninspired and lazy, just picking like and again, maybe Jonathan Gannon could have worked out, but just being like, oh, the defensive coordinator from the Super Bowl team, sure, rip it like that to me actually felt a little bit lazier. And then the last time they tried to be interesting before that they hired Cliff Kingsbury, who I like the college thing, like the offense just didn't make any sense. Like I'm weirdly okay with them kind of taking what feels like a very vanilla answer here. There is a problem with this. There's a significant problem with this line of thinking that we're going to talk about in like eight minutes. So I, we were going to get into that in a second, but when it comes to the way that teams think about this. And if you're like, I'm going offense, that is, and I've said this many times, there are organizations that think that way because of the, just the numbers and the history and the results that have come along with it over the last 10 to 15 years. There are teams that are like, I'm hiring an offensive mind head coach. And if that's what you're doing, these are the types of guys that you're going to land with. It is a valid point that he was part of one of the most successful offenses in the league over the last few years. But, and it goes back to the same thing we said about Kubiak, where, is, and I mean, if you're hellbent on doing offense, then you're hellbent on doing offense. But do you have so much tunnel vision that you are ignoring either more qualified candidates, certainly, or a more outside the box candidate that could be equally good, if not better? Potentially, yes. And I just, but again, I think that if you're gonna go offense, like this is where we've reached with the pool. Nathaniel Hackett is gonna be the offensive coordinator there. I know that people are probably gonna snicker at that. we've seen him do this job well before the Packers had some of the best offenses in football when he was the offensive coordinator, being the offensive coordinator for a play calling head coach is a different job than being the offensive coordinator where you were the play caller. Like it just, it, we have so much evidence of this. Like it's an administrative job. Like it's an organizational job and it's one that Nathaniel Hackett has done well in the past. So I can understand landing there. And it's also like familiarity with, obviously he worked with Matt for a while. Like I, again, it's probably not the most inspired thing, but I understand it. Aubrey Pleasant is one of the names interviewing to be the defensive coordinator, not the least bit surprising. He's been, he had a, went to Detroit, got fired there in Detroit as like the DB's coach, which that was kind of a strange thing, but he was welcomed back to the Rams very quickly. He's been a prominent member of that Rams coaching staff as like the DB's coach and passing game coordinator. So completely understand why he is in the mix there. We'll talk a lot more about the Cardinals outlook and the Cardinals quarterback situation on the show we're doing on Friday, because obviously when we talk about the quarterback Carousel Kyler is going to be heavily involved there. So we will sit with that discussion when we get to that Friday show. So the problem with we're just defaulting to the offensive coach, one of the problems that comes along with that is one of the discussion points that have happened that has happened and come up since these 10 seats were filled. We leave this coaching cycle with 10 hires with zero black head coaches. And after losing Raheem Morris and Mike Tomlin from that group after this season. We are now down to, I believe, three. Correct? Todd Bowles, D'Amico Ryans, and Aaron Glenn. Truthfully, he feels kind of like pre-fired in a way. Yes, and he feels pre-fired. And so, we're now down to three guys. And so, there's been a lot of talk about how this happens. It's a lot of stuff that we've discussed many, many times over the years when it comes to the efficiency of the Rooney Rule, the effectiveness of the Rooney Rule. Is any of this stuff working? The way that I see this is that it boils down to two distinct problems that are affecting everything at the same time. The first one is that we have seen the fact that the league continues to want offensive coaches. Even in this cycle, where we felt like it might swing back the other way a little bit, we had 10 guys hired. We had six offensive coaches hired. Kubiak, LeFleur, Monken, Stefanski, McCarthy, Joe Brady. We had three defensive coaches hired Halfley Salah Minter one CEO head coach hired and John Harbaugh That is right in line with the current makeup of the rest of the head coaching pool Right now we have 19 offensive head coaches and some of them call plays, some of them don't. But even like with Stefanski, Tommy Reese is going to call plays. Matt Ryan said to me at the Super Bowl, one of the appealing parts of Kevin Stefanski is if Tommy Reese gets hired away, Kevin Stefanski can just become a play caller. And so the same mindset applies to these guys who are quote unquote CEO type of coaches that are offensive guys. The issue with this is that when you have all of these offensive coaches getting hired, the pipeline and the just available coaches on offense that are black to get these jobs is just a different, it looks very different than it does for defensive coaches. And some people are going to push back on that and they're going to say it's not a pipeline issue. And I'm not saying there aren't enough talented coaches on that side of the ball that deserve these coordinator roles and eventually get head coaching roles. They're just not getting them. Like there is a bottleneck before these guys become coordinators. And that is what is the problem. If you look at the way the rules have changed, right? We need two minority interviews for offensive coordinator jobs and defensive coordinator jobs. And you need one minority interview for the quarterback coach job. And you need at least one black coach on your staff. Those are the rules that were put in place in 2022. We have seen progress made there because of those rules in small ways. If you look at it, there are 10 combined passing game coordinators and quarterback coaches that are black in the league. There are 10 of them total. So you have about a third of the league that has guys in these roles on their staffs. The problem is none of them are becoming coordinators. None of them. We had 17 new offensive play callers hired in this cycle. 17. 11 of them as OCs, no black offensive coordinators. And Eric Bien-Ami was hired as an offensive coordinator, but obviously he is not going to be the play caller for the Chiefs. And so that is the problem. If we're going to keep going offense, offense, offense, and we have no black offensive coordinators because guys are getting stuck in these quarterback, coach, and passing game coordinator roles, you're going to continue to perpetuate this issue. And so this is the thing. It's it still is a pipeline issue. And like people again, like there are coaches who are in those roles who could be promoted or could be hired away into those roles. But if it's not happening at all and like we can say, oh, the rules are the rules and guys are getting chances. But again, if none of them are being hired, then it doesn't really matter. And I think another part of this that I find interesting is that a lot of guys on offenses, a lot of either offensive coordinators, play callers, head coaches, whatever. a lot of them will get hired away without having been NFL players. It oftentimes like blackhead coaches or play callers, even on the defensive side of the ball, are former NFL players. The three in the league right now, D'Amico, Ryan's Todd Bowles, Aaron Glenn, all former longtime players with with a lot of the white coaches and offensive coaches that get hired away. That is just not really a prerequisite. And so I think that that is part of the issue as well. It absolutely is. And there's a double standard involved here in a lot of different ways. I think what to me, it's even more drastic on the defensive side, which we can get into in a second, but it absolutely exists on the offensive side as well. Defensive side for sure. Like looking over it, it's wild. But particularly on on the offensive side of the ball, what you said. So by my math. So there's there's Eric B enemy and then there's like David Shaw, Nate Sheelhouse. it's David Shaw, Nate Sheelhaus, Thomas Brown, Marcus Brady is the pass game coordinator for the Ravens now. Brian Johnson, I believe, is still the pass game coordinator for Washington. And then the quarterbacks coaches, Israel Woolfolk just got hired to be the quarterbacks coach for the Ravens. Ashton Grant is the Patriots quarterbacks coach. Gerard Johnson is the Texans quarterbacks coach. DJ Williams is now in Washington. He was in Atlanta. And then And JT Barrett is the Bears quarterback's coach. So it's those 10. By my match, just looking at the staffs, I might be missing somebody. This is purely anecdotal, but you can go look at NFL staffs all over the league and just from my time covering the NFL, the enemy is like the biggest, most famous example. But if there is a pipeline issue, like the number of guys moving, particularly from like running backs coach and receivers coach into bigger jobs, just feels non-existent to me. And like there are some younger guys getting moved into passing game and running game coordinator roles, but the number of like career receivers coaches or running backs coaches that just kind of get stuck there is very interesting to me. And I think that was part of the thinking when they changed the rules is that they wanted more black coaches to be touching the quarterback position and allowing them to have maybe upward mobility to these roles. And that second thing just hasn't happened. Yeah. And that's ultimately what this comes down to. You need to be willing to hire people. You need to have people in these hiring roles that are doing the hiring that are willing to make these decisions. Like until they're willing to do it, you can put as many machinations in place as you want to. And to me, that is no more evident than it is on the defensive side of the ball. Like I get how we arrive where we are with the offense and how the specific problems have contributed to this. On defense, it's like, what are the excuses? Like if you look at the defensive coaches hired in this cycle. Jesse Minter, completely understand it. But we are in the Mike McDonald era. Jesse Minter is a phenomenal defensive coordinator. Like every single bit of that is justified. That is the interesting thing. There are at least a few, there are a few hires in this cycle where you're just like, okay, that makes sense. Like Jesse Minter being one of them, John Harbaugh being one of them. I'd probably throw Stefanski in there as well, where I think that's part of it. But by and large, when you have 10 openings, the problem there is all 10, you know? Like, even if a handful of them make sense. Well, the problem for me is, it's just tougher for me to justify, like, why Jeff Halfley is more deserving of a job right now than, like, Patrick Graham would be over, like, what he's done as a defensive coordinator. Like, I just don't really understand that. Like, Jeff Halfley did a solid job with the Packers for two years. that that's what happened. And he might be a really good head coach. And I think there are elements of who he is that are appealing. But like, I just don't understand why his resume is more attractive than somebody like Patrick Graham. And like with Salah, I understand that Salah probably deserves another shot. Why does Salah have to sit out for one year as a defensive coordinator when Brian Flores and Vance Joseph are doing what they're doing? Like, why? That to me is the issue where like, I get the offense thing and how we've arrived there, even if there are problems that need to be addressed. The defense thing, like, it's hard to justify or argue for, in my opinion. How about Anthony Weaver? Yeah, Anthony Weaver is like the other name I was going to mention with Patrick Graham. He had a, and Denard Wilson, too, like guys that had a piece of the 2023 Ravens defense, and they go on to other jobs and do a good job. Weaver in particular, you want to talk about, like, being inspired by listening to a guy talk. Holy shit. and I'm happy for him that he landed in Baltimore where I hopefully will have one of these opportunities. I would guess he's going to get a look based on how I feel about the Ravens organization and their roster. But that that's one that stands out to you where you're like, man. And I know he interviewed for some jobs, but you look at it and you're just like, that feels funny to me that this guy didn't get a closer look. And the Flores thing obviously has its own complications. But like at this point, we're in a place where we've seen what really good defensive first coaches can do for you if you have the right guy on that side of the ball. And who is more of the right guy than him if it's not Mike McDonald at this point? That's the thing. If we're doing this whole thing of like if you have to make the exception for defensive coaches that they are going to be like league shifting, like really on the front, the front foot. Obviously, McDonald and some of his guys, that totally makes sense. The other guy is Brian Flores. Like, like it is objectively Brian Flores, the way that he's brought some of his pressures, the way that we talked about this, I think even early, not this season, but last season, like all of the two high pressures that people are bringing is a lot of Brian Flores stuff. Like if you are trying to be on the front foot of defense and not picking from the McDonald tree, it is Brian Flores. Another thing that I think is interesting, I went I went through and it's it's a little tricky right now because not every coaching staff is finalized. Some teams wait until everybody's hired to make the formal announcements. But if you go through and look, we just talked about guys on the offensive side of the ball getting elevated. That's even less of a problem on the defensive side of the ball. There is like a bottleneck of guys with coordinator in the title. So not defensive coordinator, defensive play caller. But I went through and looked. There are 16 coaches in the NFL with coordinator in their title on the defensive side of the ball who don't call plays. and then there's also eight that have assistant or associate head coach in the title, which to me says you are valued by your organization enough to get promoted enough to where you can't be poached or somebody promoted you as a way of poaching you. Antoine Randall comes to mind right here in Chicago. Ben Johnson valued him so much that he gave him an assistant head coach title to get him to Chicago from Detroit, but a lot of these guys kind of get left there after that. And that's not a criticism of Ben Johnson or the Bears specifically, but you see guys like this all over the league where it's like, OK, you've you've been promoted to a certain level. And then it just kind of feels like guys get stuck there. Ultimately, I think it just comes down to the fact that the people in these positions that are making the hiring look at somebody like Jeff Halfley as a head coach, while they don't look at some of the black defensive coordinators who've done even better job than him as head coaches. And that's a problem. And I think going back to something like the Hackett hire, for example, that is where that familiarity thing to me becomes the biggest issue. Where there should be people maybe that are more deserving of being elevated into these roles, getting some of these roles that aren't because there is like, well, I know that guy. And so let's just bring him in here to be part of the support staff. We need to be taking chances on different people. That goes back to my LaFleur thing. And I think people get lost in the weeds or even angry when this conversation comes up because maybe we're suggesting this is something nefarious. Like, don't don't talk to the black guy like that is not even remotely what I'm suggesting. But in the instance of like a Mike LaFleur, look at and they're victims of their own success. I get it. But the McVeigh tree, the Shanahan tree, Matt LaFleur and the way that it has branched out to the point where this coaching tree of guys who all know and like each other work in half the buildings in the league, if not more than that. And so nothing nefarious is going on. I mean, Sean McVeigh is perpetuating it. There's no denying that. Sean McVay helped Raheem Morris get the Falcons job. Kyle Shanahan identified and elevated D'Amico Ryans. It is not nefarious, but when you have this... Those are both defensive coaches, though. They are. That is a valid point. But this boys, it feels like a boys club, and that has a negative connotation, but it could be as easy as like, oh, yeah, I've worked with him for five years. He's great, and he is part of the way we do things, and that is attractive to teams who see the success that the Rams and the 49ers and the Packers and all these teams have had, and it starts to perpetuate on itself. And like I said, you just get tunnel vision on who is the most qualified Sean McVay endorsed guy when there's 19 other ways you could do this if you wanted to. And to me, that's why it's like it's two different sets of problems, right? Like, because I think some people look at the Michael Fluhire and they will say, how is he a more qualified head coaching candidate than somebody like Vance Joseph? And I think that's where you have to look at it two different ways. You have to say, well, they're going offense first. And so that is an entirely different set of problems than Vance Joseph not getting a head coaching job. Because I think the biggest issue there is, why isn't Vance Joseph getting a job over somebody like Jeff Halfley? That's why I would take it with two kind of different separate conversations and talking to people about it. That's kind of the feel I have for it. My only pushback on that would be if you set out from day one, like we want an offensive coach. Well, you've just eliminated a shitload of valuable, like viable candidates. And even if that's what you think you want, you might meet the guy that just knocks your socks off and blows you away if you do a more thorough process. That's the argument for why the Rooney Rule exists. Yeah, absolutely. You will get surprised by people. That's how Tomlin got in the door initially with the Steelers. It just doesn't happen that often. And I think that's the issue because ultimately it probably should like, and that's why people roll their eyes at the performative Rooney rule interviews so much where it's like, are we checking boxes or are we looking at everything here? And I know that's easier said than done. And I feel like I'm picking on Michael Fleur. Maybe he's going to be awesome. But if you set out with like an archetype in mind, then of course you're going to land on that type of coach. Whereas there's no shortage of qualified guys that you could be very impressed by if you got in a room with them. That's what I'm, that's why the offensive coaching pool needs to, the makeup of it needs to change. If we're going to have these teams that go offense first, then the types of guys you're seeking out that are part of those trees, like that is what needs to change. And unless those guys start getting elevated to some of these roles, it's not going to change. Like Nathan Sheilhaus, hopefully we'll get a head coaching job and we'll be elevated to be the offensive coordinator for the Rams. And hopefully that will help spur something on that is not happening right now. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a few more little bits of news that we wanted to hit. Global shifts are redefining business. How can you stay ahead? Find the answers on our Think Ahead podcast. Humans make mistakes. The generative AI can outperform and reach superhuman levels of performance. We get ourselves tied up in knots about, oh, we can't analyze the algorithm. When what we really need to do is analyze the output and compare it to how good humans would be at that task. Stay informed and stay ahead with the Think Ahead podcast from London Business School. Wie de wereld van vandaag wil begrijpen, moet terug naar 1979. In his new book, The 21st century, which began in 1979, he tells Maarten van Rossum how this was decided for our time. Compact, sharp and on-misskenbaar Maarten van Rossum. For everyone who's watching more than the actuality. Now in the Boekhandel. One more thing that we didn't get a chance to talk about last week. It happened, Link, as we were flying to San Francisco, essentially. Kwesi Adolfo Mensah fired as the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings. The timing on it is obviously the surprising part of this. The fact that he was fired when he was at the Senior Bowl doing his job. If this had happened after the season, I don't think anybody would have been that shocked by it. I think that there had been some tension in that building. So many people have talked about this. Alec Lewis and Diana wrote a story about it. I think the timing is what surprised people. But Derek, when you saw that he was out and when you saw some of the conversation in the aftermath after he was fired, what were your initial reactions to this? I have a few thoughts. First of all, the timing is very, it's a reminder that NFL owners and front offices just don't want to be embarrassed. And this very much felt like, oh, Sam Darnold is making the deep run. Like, I don't know if that was like, it's obviously not the only reason he's fired. But if they needed something that was going to push them all the way over it, it does feel like him making the run and doing it with such weird timing like that is certainly part of it. I listen, I really don't have a whole lot to say about all the extracurricular conversation around him, because to me, he was. If you just look at his history of the moves that he made, he was already pretty fireable just in terms of trading back and probably not getting as much value as he should have out of those trades. Or I think trying to like pre spend on the rookie quarterback contract thing with J.J. McCarthy and that not working out. Like, I think a lot of it to me, if you just look at their and maybe that's more of a Kevin O'Connell thing, I don't know. But I think if you just look at the history of their moves, like I just I understand why he was fired just based purely off that. And to me, it doesn't even the other stuff I think is kind of just like additive and convenient on the Vikings part. it's just wild that it happened like the day after Sam Darnold played the game of his life in the NFC title game and you can't convince me those things are not linked because a teams don't even go to the senior bowl these days like I mean most of them do but like teams stay back from the senior bowl all the time it is not unusual to have an extended look like you see all the time, a coaching staff will just be in purgatory. Like the ownership is like, we're going to look at all of this. We're going to go through meetings about what went wrong this season. And you'll just have like a cloud of uncertainty that hangs over a facility for weeks at a time. That didn't happen in Minnesota. Like they were out on the road at the Senior Bowl. Like the day before it happened, I saw Kwesi was like on the field watching O-line, D-line drills up close. And you just don't do that if you're planning on making a move like this. and for it to happen right after that game. And I do agree with Derek. You can make a case for firing him based on everything that's happened, but to get through the first three weeks of January and have the staff out at the Senior Bowl looking at guys and then pull the trigger 24 hours after Sam Darnold is the MVP of the conference championship game, it's a knee-jerk decision. And yeah, it felt like the decision of an ownership group that felt very embarrassed by letting Sam Darnold walk. I think that's absolutely a part of it. I think the quarterback decision in general is a part of it. Like if JJ McCarthy had had Drake May rookie season and Sam Darnold had won the Super Bowl we probably wouldn be doing this Unfortunately J McCarthy didn He was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL And so that is clearly a mistake on multiple different fronts. The extracurricular stuff when it comes to, like, the paternity leave and all of that, like, that's not worth getting into, in my opinion. To me, it's more about his place as like the main decision maker in the culture setter in a football building and how skeptical people were of him as like a figure of authority in that sort of role based on his background. And I think that was a consistent problem in Minnesota based on a lot of the reporting that has happened. And my frustration with this more than anything else, I don't think his firing was not was like unjustified. if you look at the quarterback thing and also just the draft history. Like the draft history is abysmal. It was really, really bad. And so if you're going to screw up the biggest decision that you have to make and you have not shown an ability to consistently fill the roster with talent in the draft, those are on its own are probably enough to fire somebody. What's frustrating to me is that a lot of people who are like traditionalists about who deserves to have these jobs are going to treat this as a win. They're going to be like the analytics guy came in, and it didn't work because he's an analytics guy. There are two different elements of that to me that I think are worth digging into. One, I think one of his biggest problems as a general manager is that he didn't have the confidence and the steadfast nature to follow through on the actual analytically driven decisions. Like if you look at what they did in like trading draft picks away and some of that stuff and like some of the types of players he made bets on, those weren't analytically driven decisions. Like one of his biggest problems that he didn't follow the analytical models enough that he probably believed in. Well, and even one of those is like, listen, maybe he could have got more value out of like the trade down that they made and eventually ended up drafting Lewis scene. But if they just draft a player who's better than Lewis scene, like none of it's not a problem. If they draft a quarterback who's better than J.J. McCarthy, it's probably not a problem. Like to me, it really isn't like his mindset as like an analytical GM or what all that stuff. It was just like the moves that they made were not good enough. Like that's kind of all it boiled down to. That was part of it. But trading all those picks away in the Dallas Turner draft is like, that's something that's like an analytically driven GM. Like you, I don't know how you can justify that. Even like giving out third, using your free agent money on third contract players in this last free agent cycle is not something that like an analytically driven GM would probably do. The Dallas Turner trade, the Javon Hargrave contract, Jonathan Allen too. Yeah. I feel like those are not deals that like, you know, when you think of like an analytics front office, like, uh, like the Browns had baseball guys in their front office, like that sort of thing. You don't do that type of stuff if you're just following the numbers. And I think the other part of this, and this gets back to like the people of his background and like where he came from on the analytics side of things, this is always going to be a sport where I think that people need you to have like a little bit of football guy in you. Yes. And I wish that weren't the case, but it kind of is, especially when you're somebody in that role where like you've got how many people reporting to you if you're the general manager of an NFL team and you are really tasked with setting like the culture in the building, how the building operates, the mindset of everybody. You need to have like real authority in that sort of role. and I think that there are guys that are never gonna get behind or trust somebody that is of a background they don't really understand or trust and doesn't really come with like the gravitas to get people to kind of fall in line behind it, right? I think that he's somebody that probably never operated with like the authority and the confidence that was going to capture the belief of people in that building and I think that's why it led to some of the fracturing that you saw. Like that, that, that's my kind of read on the, on the, on a lot of it. And Sando wrote a lot about this, like Sando talked about it. I think that there's some real, like there's something very real there and like how it affects everybody else in the building. But at the, at the core of it, this is not a, the analytics guy made analytics decisions and that's why this didn't work. I think there are a lot of other things at play here. Yeah. But to your point, it's going to get treated that way. Of course it is. People are going to look at every, anytime somebody is going to consider hiring somebody like this to be a general manager again in the next five years this is what's going to happen and the idea that like they want a football guy in there now it's like okay like i don't howie roseman has two super bowls i was literally just thinking i was like howie roseman does all the stuff that is like in theory all the analytical stuff and like it's worked out for them just fine i will say though and i i've talked about this a lot and just the era one of howie in philly and era two i think he really did learn a lot about how to be that person at the front of the building when he spent those couple of years away. And moving beyond what the math would tell you about some of these decisions. And obviously the Eagles still do a ton of that, right? Again, I've joked about it a million times. You need like an MBA in order to figure out how the Eagles run their cap. Like this is a team that is on the cutting edge when it comes to the decision-making and how forward-thinking they are. But I also think that Howie really did learn that this is a people business first and foremost. I think that was probably the most important thing he learned during those couple of years of exile. And so I think that's why he's been better at the job the second time around. And so it's not just about how you think and how you operate. It's what you can do to inspire belief and buy-in from the people around you. Like that's always going to be a part of what those roles are. It's a very quarterback, you know, to borrow the parallel from down in the locker room. But it's similar in that part of the building. Like you have a team. I mean, God knows how many people it is. Like obviously it's the coaching staff. It's earning the respect and the trust of ownership. But however many scouts work for a given NFL team and the amount of work that those guys do and the amount of trust that they put in you to guide their careers in the right direction. And so, my God, what is that? Like 40, 50 people that you have to have in lockstep trusting that you're doing things the right way and you're going to land the plane every year? Yeah, and I think it's easy to lose that. Maybe not publicly, but again, I mean, these guys in every building work very closely together and talk to people in other buildings and have relationships all over the league. If you lose that, I think it can be very problematic. I think that's why something like the paternity leave blows up in the way that it does is because the moment something like that happens, you have a lot of people being like, see, see, he's not like us and he operates differently than us. And they just jump on that in a way they might not if it wasn't already building to that moment. That's what I'm saying with that. Like I that to me, that part of it just seems like very convenient for either the Vikings or for people who thought it was a bad hire and think that he deserved to be fired to say that he should. Whereas like to me, it's just like. Oh, for sure. And yeah, if JJ had been awesome and the Vikings had been a good team this year, either we wouldn't have heard about it or we would have gotten some glowing stories about here's how the GM of the Vikings is changing the culture in his building. One step at a time. Work-life balance matters in Minnesota. Yeah, it's all about results. And not to twist the knife on Vikings fans, but I also just can't help but go back to KOC's quote about organizations fail young quarterbacks way before young quarterbacks can fail organizations. Well, the guy that oversaw the drafting of J.J. McCarthy is now fired and Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores are, if they're not in job protection mode yet, they're probably at least thinking about it. There's some self-preservation that's going on. I promise you that. And that will drive the quarterback thinking about this team moving forward, which we will dig into on Friday. And yeah, that'll be, that'll be fine. It'll be a fun off season in Minnesota. Let's take through a couple of these coordinator hirings really quickly. Matt Nagy is the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants. it's it's to me it's uninspired I think that the idea that after Todd Monken this was the next choice like if you were John Harbaugh as a CEO type of head coach to me is just a little bit disappointing I think it's extremely disappointing and like when I said I'm trying to be nice like when I said like um the LeFleur hire was like uninspired and inoffensive I think it is but at least it's like young guy coming off of the the Shanahan McVeigh trees he's going to call plays it could be exciting like I at least can get it we've seen Matt Nagy like be in higher positions like this and I think he he's coming off of having been with the Chiefs for his second stint and the Chiefs getting worse on offense with him as the offensive coordinator and the Chiefs like not even quietly but like pretty loudly pushing him out of the building like I just maybe there's a chance this works out but I just this this is one of the few hires where I'm like I definitely would have wanted them to go in a different direction. When he got the job, I heard plenty of people saying like, see, he just, he wanted a play calling opportunity, no matter what. It didn't have to be a head coaching job like the Chiefs were trying to push. And that's fine. I don't, I just, if Matt Nagy had been somebody that the Chiefs desperately wanted to hold on to, I just don't think they would have, I don't think it would have gone down the way that it did. When you're an offensive coordinator, you're the play caller. You're the main architect behind the offense. You need to be a problem solver. And I just don't think that Matt Nagy and his time as the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs in the second go around and what it looked like with the Bears. I just don't really trust him that much as a problem solver. And so I would be the all the excitement and the the just the joy around the John Harbaugh hire for Giants fans. The idea that Todd Monkhan might be coming with him. Some of that would be sucked out for me because of this. Notice how for multiple years now, Steve Spagnuolo has made it known like I would love another chance. I want to be a head coach again. This is not my sole goal for the rest of my career. But the Kansas City Chiefs have not done a farewell tour with him where they're just like, all right, see you later, Spags. Like, we had a good run, but go pursue your opportunity. No, that's silly. To me, this just seems like, and this is not a good excuse to make this hire, but it just seems like if they looked at Jackson Dart and they said, okay, he's probably going to be a shotgun guy. He's going to be a spread guy. he's going to be RPO. Who's the easiest guy that we can find to do that? And it's Matt Nagy, which again, like, I understand how you arrived there, but there has to be, and there has to be somebody else who fills that, that slot for you. Like that's not Matt Nagy. I just, in so many ways, it seems like they could have gone a different direction. And I just think that line of thinking, when you, the first, the first thought that crosses your mind about Matt Nagy and Jackson Darden is that thought. And that thought's like, oh, this could work out. But then you think about like, all right, let's think one layer deeper. When you start to run into issues because that is the structure of your offense, then what happens? And do we have any faith in them being able to work through that? And I think that becomes the bigger question and I have my doubts about it. The Ravens hired their own offensive coordinator. They hired Declan Doyle from the Bears to be their offensive play caller. This one is one of those which is like, all right, let's see how this goes. Like, I mean, if you're gonna hire a guy from an offensive system that is exciting and that represents the modern NFL, like I think that the offensive coordinator for Ben Johnson and what that Bears offense was last year absolutely falls in line with that. Have you made peace with rooting for a team that people want to emulate? It's wild. It's wild. My co-peer is that they have Ben Johnson, so it doesn't really matter. Anybody can get hired away off that staff and it's going to be fine. It's like one of the arguments for having a Ben Johnson as your head coach. But the fact that people are willing to want to steal some of that Bears offense heat is a very new experience for me. Jesse Minner got into his office and immediately fired up Bears tape to get ideas and see if he wanted to talk to Declan Doyle. It's extremely weird, but I also understand it after watching the Bears last year. Mentioned Anthony Weaver hired to be their defensive coordinator. Love that on a bunch of different levels. Frank Reich is the Jets offensive coordinator. I mean, Derek said it earlier on the show. This staff feels more pre-fired than any staff that I can remember this is just like why and like how and why I am the most like three years ago I was like hell yeah hire Frank Reich like I was so into it but like that feels like a lifetime ago that Frank Reich was like a needle moving offensive mind and play caller I just this to me I don't even understand and again almost similar to like what I said about uh Mike LaFleur with the Jets I don't think Taron Engstrand was like incredible last year but given the the some of the constraints they had with no wide receiver talent and quarterback play that was pretty bad I'd never really watched the offense and was like man they're completely hamstringing these guys they're not using their talent like the run game was good despite all that they had to deal with like and so like them moving a different direction there and then obviously now hiring Frank Reich I just this feels like such a bizarre set of circumstances who's the Jets quarterback I know we have all offseason to figure that out but it doesn't matter it probably doesn't matter it doesn't matter I I mean, this is a bleak situation. We talked about it on the last coaching show we did when they fired like a third of their staff. It just, there's so few things here that inspire any sort of hope. And I think that the hires that they've made over the last couple of weeks fall directly in line with that. Two defensive coordinator moves before we get out of here. Raheem Morris is the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. I think this makes a ton of sense based on his history with Kyle Shanahan. They coached together multiple different times over the years. My question for you, Derek, Like Raheem Morris is not right now, at least over the last several years, has not been like a four down attack front defensive coordinator. And so do, and he's beat. The thing about Raheem is that he's worked all of these different systems at some point in his career. Like he doesn't come from one specific place. And so in theory, if they wanted to run that sort of defense, I think he probably could. But I also wonder, does this mean some sort of shift from what the Niners defense looks like when it has looked very, very similar for most of the past 10 years. And I think it's just kind of weird timing wise, because they just drafted a bunch of guys who like, in theory, were supposed to like fit this four or three defense. I guess not like four or five draft picks. And obviously, you know, Upton Stout is in the secondary and stuff like that. But they spent two picks on defensive tackles. Their first round pick was was an edge rusher. And I will say Michael Williams was really a little bit more of like a stand up outside linebacker at Georgia. So maybe he specifically this is not really an issue. But I am kind of curious about how much of they're going to like let Raheem Morris do some of the stuff that he wants to do and is used to do. Or if it's going to be a little bit of like when he got to the Los Angeles Rams situation where it's like, look, this is last year's playbook. Use as much of this as you possibly can type of deal. It's a really good point because he did that exact thing when he got to L.A. Like he was the only new coach on the staff. And so there's a chance that those guys in San Francisco are like, here, here's what we do. like now you're in charge of this that has happened before leonard floyd did you like your time in the bay do you want to go back just like i don't know he's playing for rahim like every year for the last like eight years thinking out loud uh last one jim leonard is the defensive coordinator for the bills love it don't know what else to say like there's a reason his name has been bopping around he's somebody that i'm very curious to see what he will do running his own shop and i think if you're joe brady this is about as good as you could hope for yeah he's been a hot name in in the college circles for a while like he i think he was the defensive coordinator when they had that really fun linebacker pair of uh who is it uh jack sanborn and leo chanel i believe he was the defensive play caller for them obviously last year really fun in the nfl that defense was awesome he was the defensive coordinator on that team i was so excited for jack sanborn and dallas this year i love just thinking about stuff i thought in august and now here we are a few days after the Super Bowl. I'm just picturing Derek just like laying in his house just like thinking back to like Leo Chennault as a linebacker for the Wisconsin Badgers and how beautiful those days were. That defense was incredible. Beller knows what I'm talking about. That defense was awesome. Jim Leonard has been, he's been an it name for defensive nerds forever at this point. So like to see him land in a high profile situation for a team with Super Bowl aspirations clearly because that's why they were looking for a new head coach in the first place. it's exciting to see what it's going to look like and just go ahead and circle him as a guy who could benefit from a good Bills season in a big way alright that is all we've got for today we'll be back tomorrow talking about our biggest questions heading into the offseason all those quarterback conversations that we were dancing around today Max Crosby trade all that stuff we'll be talking about that stuff tomorrow so please check that out on Monday we'll be starting up our offseason mailbags The days on those are going to change over the next couple of weeks just because we're going right into the combine. And so we'll have a combine preview of sorts on that next Monday. And then free agency is going to start up soon after that. But we will, starting this week, be running back those weekly mailbags. Very excited about that. Always love to hear from you guys. So please be on the lookout for that on Monday. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thank you. Now in the book.