It's the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. You know what's cooler than having one Christian Watson? Having two and that's what Bryce Lance could provide the Green Bay Packers. You are locked on Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. You are locked on Packers, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Peter Bacowsky and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked On Packers, their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us. As much as we like starting our day with you here on the Locked On Podcast Network, the number one sports podcast network, we have another edition of Goody's Guys today and this is a fun one. Bryce Lance, who is drawing comparisons to Christian Watson, not just because he went to North Dakota State, but because he can absolutely fly. We'll get to the fit with the Packers in just a second. Let's start with the player. And I understand the Christian Watson comparisons. Bryce Lance is a similar body type in terms of big, strong, fast, 6'3", 204 pounds and ran 4'3", 4". The speed jumps and I mean leaps off the tape. He has a 98th percentile speed score. So how fast is he vis-a-vis his weight and height? This guy for his size can absolutely fly. Now he's going to be 24 years old as a rookie, but he is someone who produced at a major, major level in college. Two years, over a thousand yards and North Dakota State has modernized their offense in ways that Christian Watson did not get the benefit of when he was in school. They throw the ball more often now and so he was able to get a bigger target share when it comes to the metrics that I like, the production metrics because at the receiver position you have to have to have produced in college, not just for the Packers, but for an NFL projection. The indicators are strong with these production metrics. That is dominator. So how much did you gobble up the big plays, the important plays in your passing game, 77th percentile there? Now 16th percentile breakout edge. That's not great. He was an older prospect when he became what he is, but that dominator, you need to have one of those two things. When you go back and you look at the guys who have caught up for a thousand yards in the NFL over the last 10 or 15 years, if you are not above average in one of those two metrics, you're the outlier of outliers if you produce at a high level in the NFL. Now you don't need to be if you're going to be a third round pick, which is about where Bryce Lance is being projected to go. You don't need to be a thousand yard receiver. If you come in and you are the 2026 version, the 2027 version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, that's totally fine. And if Christian Watson is going to be your number one receiver, then that's all you really need from a player like this. Now two years of pro football focus grades over 80 and a bonkers 3.58 yards per route run. Over two is where you want to be. Anything over three is the elite of the elite. He was fifth in deep catches last year, fourth in deep yards according to pro football focuses charting. He is a twitched up athlete, explodes off the snap. I mean explodes off the snap. And he wants to score every play because he can. He opened the game against Illinois State with an out and up for a touchdown where he just, the corner is practically not even on the screen. That was something we saw on the Christian Watson tape too. He looks like an NFL athlete and you don't have to ask the same questions. Like if you go to a, you know, a non-power five school, a lower to be like someone like Ted Hurst at Georgia State, you wonder, okay, why did he not transfer? You don't ask that question in North Dakota State because you can compete for a national title there. I understand it's not quite the same level of competition, but they have consistently churned out NFL players. And that program is, I would rather a guy have gone to North Dakota State than some of the lower level major conference schools just because of the consistency, the coaching that those guys get there. The downside is when you compare him to Christian Watson, he's not as physical as, as a blocker, not as physical after the catch, not as physical at the catch point as Christian Watson. And he's not a go up and get a guy. Christian Watson wasn't really in college either, but he has become that in the NFL. And I just, I don't know if that's there for Bryce Lance. And the biggest problem for me with Lance is, and the reason he's not, like I had some people say, why is he an inferior prospect to Christian Watson when he was more productive and every bit as athletic as Christian? Well, the blocking is, is one of them for sure. But as a route runner and Christian Watson was not seen as a refined route runner coming out of school, Lance is not in the same ballpark to me. He really, really struggles to drop his weight, throttle down and, and snap off routes, even on a simple comeback route. Like that should be if you're a big, strong fast and you're a vertical threat, the best tool that you have as a route runner is your ability. And Ted Hurst does this like a champion, STEM vertical, you are threatening vertical. Every route is a go route until it's not, and then you slam on the brakes and you turn around on the balls on you. There are a couple of times on tape where Lance tries to throttle down, drop his hips and literally falls over. Like I'm talking about the Olaf robot at Disney World falling over. Like that's, that's what it looks like. He's going to have to work on that and he's already going to be 24 years old. So how much more is out there for him? Now we'll get to the fit in a second, but there is value still in someone that strong, that fast, the run after catchability that he has. There's a, there's a play. I've seen it a bunch on social media and it jumps out when you're watching it. He catches a little, I forget if it was a screen, it's just an out breaking route. He corners along the sidelines. So that shows he's got some of that flexibility in his feet, in his knees, in his hips. And then it's just gone. And those are the play reminded me actually of a play that Marco Esvalda Scatling scored on in 2021, maybe where it's an out route. And it's one of those little pick plays where it's, you've got the basically slant flat where you've got the in breaking route and then the little arrow route. And MBS catches it and he gets one block and is gone up the sideline. Those things are there for Bryce Lance. And when you have someone who can move like that, it just, it, it changes the geometry of your offense. Here's where I landed on Bryce Lance. The physical tools are tantalizing and the production speaks for itself. If he had a better QB and especially early in the season, Colp Hayton was just not it. Lance would have been even more productive, but Lance is unrefined. The lack of agility to drop his weight and snap off routes will not, and will not be able to solely rely on his athletic gifts in the NFL or a question mark. As a speed receiver, though, who can threaten teams vertically and be a potential special teams player for you right away. Like he could be a gunner for you tomorrow. I like Lance. He's not Christian Watson, despite having more collegiate production. The problem for Lance is he was an older prospect when he broke out and it's going to be 24 having never faced top, top level of competition. If you just need a vertical field stretcher block or in special teams player for you, you can find value here and hope he can ring out a little more value with some development as a receiver, but he doesn't look best suited being a route runner, which means he's a gadget, deep threat only sort of player at least right now. Now I understand some of those same knocks were there for Christian Watson, but it's not the same. Christian Watson was better at some of the things that Lance is also good at and also had more flexibility as a route runner. So I think Lance is more like a third round player to me, but at 84, you get a defensive lineman and a corner with your first two picks and you're staring there and you're going, you know, we don't love the tight ends in this spot. What about someone like Christian Watson to just take the top off the defense at any given play, even if Christian Watson is not on the field? Lance can be that guy now. The fit. Let's talk more about that next. 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Don't forget to check out the everyday or club for ad free episodes and access to a group chat with me plus other listeners of the show. Tap the link in the show notes or go to locked on packers.supercast.com for more. We've done a couple of these on receivers and it's not a surprise that with Ted Hurst and Chris Brazel and now Bryce Lance. We're talking about Christian Watson insurance. Now it struck me as I was preparing to record this. That if you're that worried about having insurance for Christian Watson, two things are true. Uh, Christian Watson is incredibly valuable to your offense and you probably should just extend them. But number two, that, uh, it is part of the calculus in that extension that you have to be worried about Christian Watson. Now I think the Christian Watson extension for me, I would be talking. Hey, October, November Christian, let's get this done. Um, let's figure this out. Here's some more security. Here's three more years on your deal and let's go after you've proven you can stay healthy again. So you come back the off the ACL like gangbusters. Second half of the year, he was a top 10 receiver. Seriously, top 10 receiver. And now we've seen two stretches in his four year NFL career where that's the case and then there was the season that was totally scuttled by injuries. So in two of his three real seasons in the NFL, he had stretches where he looks like a legit number one receiver. This again, like with Ted Hurst, like with Brazil would allow you to use Christian more like that true number one receiver. Matthew Golden slides into whether it's the slot, whether it's on the boundary, you could use Lance in the slot like you use Christian Watson early in his career. He could be a jet sweep guy for you because he has that after catch ability. Now he wants, he has a little bit of a tendency to try and break everything to the outside. Like there's one play that sticks out of my mind. He catches a crossing route and rather than just get up the field and get 10 or 12 more yards, he tries to run to the sideline around to get a block and ends up getting zero more yards because he's trying to score. Those things have to get ironed out. He's going to realize in the NFL guys just take better angles. It's not that they're that much faster than they are at the collegiate level. They're just smarter and they're more instinctive when it comes to those kinds of things. Oh, you like to run to the sidelines. Well, I'm, I'm going to cut you off. NFL players are just better suited to those kinds of things. If you have Christian Watson and you have Lance and you have golden, you've got three guys that are four threes in the case of Matthew Golden, four, two. I don't think he plays quite to four, two. But really, really fast guys plus Savion Williams, who can do some things with the balls in his hand. Pause. I would worry way less about the running game, not having explosive players. If every single person who potentially touched the ball in the passing game could take it to the, take it to the distance every single time. And when you have that many guys, you can just rotate guys that can do everything guys that like, when you put done, Tavion Wicks out there. And he runs a clear out. It's not that useful because the defense is not threatened by him doing that. He's not going to occupy coverage the same sort of way. When Christian Watson does it, when Matthew Golden does it, they occupy coverage. You add another guy on the field where now you can line these three guys up anywhere in the formation, anywhere on the field. And the defense has to be scared that he's got that Oh, snap speed that makes defenses have to go. All right, do we have to play more to shell coverage against this team? Because anytime they put anyone, any, any combination of these receivers on the field, they're going to have at least one and usually two, sometimes three guys who can threaten you over the top. You want to play quarters? You damn sure better have a safety that can run for three and run with Christian Watson or Bryce Lance or Matthew Golden vertically because they're coming. They are going to be hauling ass down the field. And so from that standpoint, that that makes this calculation really easy for the Packers. Now at 52, that would be too early for me. And I was listening to a draft show the other day. They were talking about, you know, what about at 60 at 70? That would still be a little early for me, but the Packers don't pick until 84. So if, if you get someone at 52, let's say you trade down. The reason I was, I was doing this, this calculation earlier with like, well, let's say you get a defensive lineman in a corner. What if you trade down from 52 and add a day three pick? And now you're a day two pick. And now you're, you're picking in the sixties and again in the eighties and you could get two guys plus a receiver. I don't think Lance with, with his size and speed and his productivity. Day three is off the table. So let's say you, you, a corner you absolutely love or a defensive lineman, you absolutely love. Let's just make this simple at 52. You get one of those guys, a difference maker on defense. I think given the way that this, this offense is structured and given the way the contracts look, you can justify it. Now we did get reporting from Tom Silverstein that, um, you, you might want to extend Jaden Reed, if you're the Packers that they, they may be interested in that. And so I think that does change the calculus here. Maybe you don't think the impact of a player at receiver is that great because your core of like, if you extend Jaden Reed and then you also extend Christian Watson, now you've got four guys under contract in 2027. And you can go into that draft and grab somebody else if you want to, or you don't have to, because you've got two guys on rookie contracts and two guys on extensions who are going to be relatively inexpensive in years one and probably years two of those contract extensions. That's just the way the pack or structure of these things. So it is going to be based their, their appetite to draft a receiver on day two, I think is going to be directly related to what they want to do with Jaden Reed. It seems obvious. They want to extend Christian Watson, whether he plays well or not, that will give you your answer, but then you have to know what the situation is with Jaden Reed and whether they trade or don't have you in wicks or not. You probably need to start thinking about the succession plan at receiver. Lance is someone who, even if he's just a high end secondary playmaker and someone who can be a special teams ace for you, there's a lot of value in a player like that. All right, we're going to do some more corners this week, some more defensive linemen this week. I'm going to dig into the running backs this week. I've watched all of the draft eligible top 150 ish type receivers. We're going to do Dijon Stribbling in the goodies guys series because I think that could be your guy in round four. If you, if you want to wait, if you could get a defensive linemen in a corner and stay where you're picking at 52 and 84, I think you, you give yourself a really good shot at some of these, these secondary playmakers that are a little bit further down the board. Subscribe to the podcast, wherever you get podcasts, we're still going to be bringing these to you as often as we can, almost every day, if not every day, between now and the drafts, because I want to be able to have the Packers draft two players on day two and maybe even a player on day three and be able to say, all right, we did the show. Let's go back and listen. What is the scouting report? What is the fit? What is all that stuff? It's going to be ready for you before I even have to hit record on, on our live shows, which we're going to have coming out of round two. And then we'll do our recap after round three. Subscribe to the podcast, wherever you get podcasts, um, YouTube, so you can watch every episode we're live twice this week with the squad show. I'll be on Thursday and we're here for you every day. So you can stay locked on Packers.
