The Headlines

Two Resignations in Congress, and the Pope’s Back-and-Forth With Trump

11 min
Apr 14, 202614 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

This episode covers the global economic fallout from the Iran conflict affecting Vietnamese rice farmers, collapsed U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, two Congressional resignations over sexual misconduct allegations, Pope Leo's Africa trip amid tensions with Trump, tax filing fears among undocumented immigrants, and investment firms pouring millions into artisan bagel startups.

Insights
  • Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have immediate ripple effects on agricultural economies thousands of miles away, with shipping delays and fuel costs threatening food security globally
  • Nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran show signs of progress through timeline discussions (20 years vs. 5 years), suggesting room for compromise despite public rejection
  • Privacy erosion: IRS data-sharing with immigration officials is deterring undocumented immigrants from filing taxes, potentially costing the government tens of billions in annual revenue
  • Private equity is disrupting traditionally non-scalable food businesses by applying standardized growth models, though success depends on preserving what made them unique
  • Congressional accountability mechanisms are being tested as lawmakers face pressure to resign over misconduct rather than face formal expulsion proceedings
Trends
Supply chain vulnerability: Global food systems exposed to regional conflicts through fuel costs and shipping delaysArtisan food scaling: Investment capital targeting previously unprofitable specialty food categories (bagels, premium coffee) in growth marketsPolicy-driven behavior change: Government data-sharing practices directly influencing compliance behavior among vulnerable populationsNuclear diplomacy timeline compression: Negotiators moving from absolute positions to negotiable timeframes as potential breakthrough indicatorPrivate equity consolidation: Major investment firms acquiring and consolidating regional food chains and specialty brandsGeographic arbitrage in food trends: Southern and Sunbelt markets becoming testing grounds for specialty food concepts due to population growthCongressional resignation precedent: Lawmakers choosing voluntary resignation over expulsion as reputational damage control strategyPapal soft power: Religious leaders leveraging international platforms to influence geopolitical discourse on war and peace
Topics
Iran-U.S. Nuclear NegotiationsStrait of Hormuz BlockadeGlobal Food Supply Chain DisruptionRice Market EconomicsDiesel and Fuel Price VolatilityCongressional Sexual MisconductUndocumented Immigrant Tax FilingIRS Data Sharing with ImmigrationPrivate Equity in Food IndustryArtisan Bagel Market GrowthPope Leo Africa TripTrump-Pope TensionsShipping Delays and LogisticsFertilizer ShortagesSpecial Elections
Companies
Trader Joe's
Rice distributor mentioned as customer affected by shipping delays from Vietnam due to Strait of Hormuz closure
Costco
Wholesale retailer mentioned as customer affected by shipping delays from Vietnamese rice distributors
Panera Bread
Parent company of Einstein Bros, Bruegger's, and Noah's bagel chains with stagnant growth compared to boutique compet...
Einstein Bros
Bagel chain owned by Panera experiencing stagnant growth as investment capital targets artisan bagel startups instead
Bruegger's
Bagel chain owned by Panera with stagnant growth facing competition from newly funded artisan bagel businesses
Noah's New York Bagels
Bagel chain owned by Panera with stagnant growth as boutique artisan bagel shops attract investment capital
People
Valerie Hopkins
Russia correspondent who introduces the episode and discusses challenges of reporting from Russia
Tracy Mumford
Host of The Headlines podcast episode
Damien Cave
Correspondent reporting from Vietnam on global economic fallout from Iran conflict affecting rice farmers
J.D. Vance
Vice President commenting on collapsed U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and sticking points
Eric Swalwell
Democratic Representative from California who resigned amid sexual misconduct allegations
Tony Gonzalez
Republican Representative from Texas who resigned following sexual misconduct allegations and coercion accusations
Pope Leo
Pope conducting 10-day Africa trip focused on outreach and peace, engaged in public dispute with President Trump
Donald Trump
President who rejected Iran's 5-year nuclear suspension offer and lashed out at Pope over war criticism
Motoko Rich
Correspondent traveling with Pope Leo covering his Africa trip and peace messaging
Quotes
"if I grow new crops, I'm just pouring money into the ground"
Vietnamese rice farmer~5:30
"The big question from here on out is whether the Iranians will have enough flexibility, whether the Iranians will accept the critical things that we need to see in order for things to get done"
J.D. Vance~8:00
"it's also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties"
Eric Swalwell~17:30
"The play is always to take the thing that made it unique and try to universalize it. It's a move that can pay off and put you on every main street in America, or it can collapse spectacularly"
Private equity book author~38:00
"sending the message to undocumented immigrants and mixed status families that being in the shadows is safer"
Political scientist~30:00
Full Transcript
I'm Valerie Hopkins. I cover Russia for the New York Times. It's pretty difficult to report from Russia. Often I'm the only New York Times reporter in the country. I keep working in Russia because what happens here matters and our audience deserves to get a broad perspective of the world that they live in. If you want to make sure we can keep doing this work, subscribe to The New York Times. From The New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Tuesday, April 14th. Here's what we're covering. It feels like we're a long, long way away from Iran and the war there. But here, these farmers are hurting because of that conflict. This harvester behind me exemplifies the challenges that farmers are facing. My colleague Damien Cave is in Vietnam, tracing the global fallout from the war in Iran. Vietnam is the world's second largest exporter of rice, a staple for hundreds of millions of people. This thing uses about 100 liters of diesel a day. Before the war started, that would cost about $72. Now it's $160. The farmers here are freaking out and trying to figure out how to deal with that much of a cost increase. With the Strait of Hormuz all but closed for the last six weeks, oil and gas prices have skyrocketed. And Damien says that's made things not just more expensive, but also slower. Weeks-long shipping delays have become common, since the huge boats that transport rice and other goods have lowered their speeds to save fuel. Damien went to one wholesale rice distributor where in normal times, a huge conveyor belt would have been going 24-7. Now he said it was stopped and there were bags just piling up that normally would have been shipped out to China, the Philippines, even Trader Joe's and Costco. Add in the shortages of fertilizer, since a lot of the world's supply comes from the Middle East. And Damien says the impact on food prices could be long-term. One rice farmer told him, quote, if I grow new crops, I'm just pouring money into the ground. For the moment, the economic fallout caused by disruptions to the Strait could get even worse. Yesterday, the U.S. started its own blockade of the waterway to stop Iranian oil tankers that had been getting through. The goal is to put pressure on the regime by choking off the country's oil revenue, but it could drive global oil prices up even more. Meanwhile, in Washington... The big question from here on out is whether the Iranians will have enough flexibility, whether the Iranians will accept the critical things that we need to see in order for things to get done. After talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed over the weekend, Vice President J.D. Vance said the big sticking point was Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. has repeatedly insisted that the country must never be able to build a nuclear weapon. But the Times has now learned that what the U.S. actually put forward at the talks was a 20-year plan, demanding that Iran would have to agree to suspend all nuclear activity for the next two decades. In some ways, it's a repeat of how U.S.-Iranian policy has gone in the past, with many instances of U.S. officials trying to buy time, delaying Iran's nuclear ambitions, but not ending them completely. People familiar with the current negotiations told the Times that, in response, yesterday, Iran said it would agree to a suspension of up to five years. President Trump has already rejected that offer, according to a U.S. official, but the fact that the two sides are talking about timelines could be a sign of progress in negotiations. Yesterday, two members of Congress resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct. First, Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell of California said he would resign. Just days after CNN and the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he sexually assaulted a former staffer, which he denies, and engaged in misconduct with other women, Swalwell had already suspended his campaign for California governor, but a growing number of lawmakers, including many of his Democratic colleagues, said they would support forcing him out of the House, too. In response, Swalwell issued a statement saying that being expelled from Congress without due process over an allegation is wrong, but, quote, it's also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties. He didn't offer a timeline for his resignation. An hours later, Republican Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas said he would also leave the House as he's faced growing outcry over his behavior. He's been accused of coercing a staff member into a sexual relationship. The woman later killed herself. Text messages documenting his relationship with her recently became public. Originally, the representative denied the relationship, then called it a mistake and said he had nothing to do with her death. Yesterday, in a post announcing his resignation, he wrote, quote, There is a season for everything and God has a plan for us all. In both states, it's up to the governors if they want to call for special elections to replace the representatives before November. Swalwell's seat in California is in a heavily Democratic district, making it unlikely to change hands. In Texas, Gonzalez's district was drawn to favor Republicans, but Democrats have been performing surprisingly well in special elections in districts like that over the last year. Dear Algerian brothers and sisters, peace be with you. As-salamu alaikum. This week, Pope Leo kicked off a 10-day trip to Africa with stops in Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea. It's a big moment of outreach for the Pope, though the start of his trip has become tangled up in a back-and-forth with President Trump, with Trump lashing out at the Pope after the Catholic leader criticized the war in Iran. Still, my colleague Motoko Rich, who is traveling with Pope Leo, says he remains focused on two main goals for the trip. One is that Africa has the largest population of Catholics. Now, one out of every five Catholics in the world live in Africa, and it's also the fastest-growing Catholic population, because there's so many young people. So he definitely wants to reach out to the future of the church by coming to Africa. But the overarching theme of the trip is peace and unity, and I think peace is partly that he wants to talk about it in Africa, but he also is using the trip to have a platform to talk about peace around the world. He's been pretty outspoken since the United States and Israel started attacking Iran to the point where he drew out President Trump on social media. So I think that he is using this opportunity to talk about general principles. He's already in his speeches talked about violations of international law, the need for reducing inequality, respect, dignity, and unity. So I think they're both kind of specific themes addressing Africa and more general themes that he wants to elevate. Tomorrow is tax day, and the Times has been looking at how the filing deadline has become a major dilemma for many undocumented immigrants. For decades, the IRS implicitly encouraged undocumented taxpayers to file their returns, and millions did. It was seen by some people as a way of showing they were making an effort to follow the rules. And to avoid jeopardizing any potential future pathway to legal residency. But that all changed last year when the IRS decided to share more information with immigration officials in a controversial break with long-standing privacy practices. Now, many undocumented people fear that filing could get them deported. Across the country, organizations that help immigrants with tax returns say they've seen a noticeable drop-off in the number of filings. That could have widespread impacts for immigrants, preventing them from getting tax refunds that they were counting on. And the federal government could also take a hit, potentially losing out on some of the tens of billions of dollars in taxes that undocumented people pay every year. One political scientist told the Times that the new collaboration between tax and immigration officials is, quote, sending the message to undocumented immigrants and mixed status families that being in the shadows is safer. The IRS did not respond to a request for comment. And finally, in the last decade, investment firms have been gobbling up many of America's favorite foods, acquiring steaks in Duncan, Popeyes, Jersey Mikes. Now, big money is coming for the bagels. The wisdom used to be that really good bagels were not profitable and not scalable. The baking process is too finicky, with all the proofing and rolling and rising and boiling and baking. But... You cannot tell me that these bagels aren't the prettiest bagels you've ever seen. Thanks in part to food influencers and trend-obsessed customers, demand for the perfect bagel has now exploded. The inside is so chewy and the outside is so seasoned and crispy. Especially in the south and the sunbelt, where populations are surging and specialty bagel spots can feel novel. They're making fresh batches every 20 minutes and may have just five flavors. Investment firms are now pouring tens of millions of dollars into those businesses, hoping to turn them into runaway successes. They're banking on people who want something different than the big chains. Einstein brothers, Brugers, Noah's, which are all owned by Panera. Their growth has been stagnant. But boutique artisan bagels? Game on. One Florida business owner who got started making bagels at home during the pandemic said when he opened his 20th store, quote, I suddenly got emails from every investment fund I'd ever heard of. Still, some people are skeptical whether investment firms will boost bagels long term as they chase profits. The author of a book on private equity told the Times, quote, The play is always to take the thing that made it unique and try to universalize it. It's a move that can pay off and put you on every main street in America, or it can collapse spectacularly. Those are the headlines today on the daily, a look at what's happened in the tech industry as coders have started trying to get AI to do their jobs for them. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow. Thank you.