What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Borsten hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on top tonight. Energy prices and energy stocks spiking as tensions flare in the Middle East. And a major artery for oil is shut down. The latest in the war with Iran and the impact it is having on all markets. And diamond in the rough, what the JP Morgan CEO had to say about the recent turmoil in the credit markets and how it all affects the banking sector. Plus, software stocks catch a bid. What's behind the spike in Oracle CDS? And the battle for Warner Brothers is over, but what will a future with Paramount actually look like? The details later this hour. I'm Melissa Lee. Coming to you a lot from the studio, you'll be at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. Nice to be back once again. It's been a long time. So it's good to see you all. We start off with a massive jump in energy prices late in the day. Iranian officials saying the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, cutting off the key conduit for oil in the region and further raising concerns over supply. WTI crude surging 6.5%, joined by major spikes in Brent and Nat Gas. The news also saw stocks retreat from their highs, though. Major indices still close well off the lows of the day. The Dow, the only one to close in the red, while the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the small cap Russell 2000 posted gains. Our Pippa Stevens has the latest on the massive energy market moves that shaped the day. Hey, Melissa, so traffic in the strait had already come to a standstill, in part because of surging insurance costs for any tanker that would try to pass, meaning this doesn't necessarily change the short-term picture. With CIBC's Rebecca Babin saying it's saber-rattling with both sides looking for escalation and dominance. Still, there are some 87 million barrels of crude that has been loaded onto vessels and now sitting in the Persian Gulf and unable to transit. That's according to Kepler. And there's a finite buffer in terms of how long the market can absorb these lost barrels. Wood McKenzie, among the firms, saying $100 oil is on the table if this persists. And the supply shock is twofold. It's not just current exports, but it's also OPEC's spare capacity. That is a key lever for balancing markets, and a lot of that could now be inaccessible. VLCC rates, that's very large crude carriers, were already up 368 percent for the year ahead of the weekend. And with ships stuck, those prices are most likely going to keep rising, ultimately hitting consumers. Now, Secretary Rubio saying just now on his way into briefing top lawmakers on Capitol Hill that about the war that Secretaries Wright and Besson have a program in place to mitigate the energy impact. No details, but he said the programs will begin to roll out tomorrow. Melissa? What is a readout, Pip, on the damage done to the oil infrastructure within the Middle East, and specifically Saudi Arabia's oil hub, Ras Tanura? Yeah, so the fact that that has been taken offline, that is a big red flag, and it shows that this is now escalating. I think the bigger move today was focused on Qatar and the damage there after Iranian attacks on Qatar LNG infrastructure, because the market seems to be saying that this is bad for oil, this is extremely bad for global LNG. Of course, Qatar and the UAE are 20 percent of global LNG, And the Strait of Hormuz is the only exit point for all of those LNG tankers. And so the fact that we saw TTF futures rising above 40 percent, those are now five times as much as Henry Hub pricing. And so the LNG especially is a big deal. But I think the fact that we saw the response onto Saudi Arabian infrastructure, of course, Abkik back in 2019, some hearkening back to that as well. This just shows that this is very different from what we saw last June in terms of escalation. It does not feel like this is de-escalating those attacks and targeting energy infrastructure specifically. The next thing, of course, Melissa, to watch is Karg Island, because that could be another big hit, given that that's 90 percent of Iran's exports. Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens. And no surprise, you saw that spike in oil prices pretty much across the board and as Pippa had highlighted specifically in LNG. What do you make of this impact here? because what we saw was sort of the straight line connect the dots between higher oil prices and the various sectors that higher oil prices would hit or hurt or help. And you can go you want to do that and we go various ETF, country ETFs. India is probably the most exposed. China probably number two. And the ETF was probably down significantly. That didn't look, but it would make sense. But what does it mean? Well, historically, if you want to play crude from the long side into events like this, it's typically short lived and it's usually a losing game. But this is sort of an escalation, clearly, when you close the straits. The question is, what's China do with this? And what does India do? And what happens to the Trump meeting with President Xi in April? Is that going to happen or is that going to get pushed off? Those, to me, are the things you really want to talk about in terms of the broader market. In terms of energy, though, I mean, I would submit that the energy stocks were headed this way anyway. This just accelerated the move. I agree with everything Guy just said. I do think, I know. Love that. These things do tend to be short-lived. And I think that, you know, I don't think Trump has a ton of, I don't know, patience for very high oil costs. And that's sort of getting in the way of, you know, the whole Trump, everything's more affordable. So you have to think about, all right, how much resolve is there? He probably would want to wrap this up pretty quickly for many, many reasons. But I wouldn't chase it here. I do own the XLE. I do own OIH. I'm going to stay with them. I'm not going to trade around them, but I'm not adding here. Part of Emily Wilkins' reporting earlier in the last hour is saying that Rubio was going to meet with the Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, and that they would somehow remedy this, which would imply perhaps a release from the SPR or some other sort of – there's a backstop here, it seems. Well, sort of. I mean, I'm not sure that we're able to really make up the difference here. When we talk about the and I know strategic reserves, petroleum reserves are different than swing capacity out of OPEC. But U.S. strategic reserves aren't the answer. I do think this is a boon for U.S., U.S. exports, even for U.S. oil services. And those names that are exposed to that, I think very, very much so. Karen's right. I mean, you're not chasing energy names today. Having said that, if you look at some of the European integrators, which I prefer over even the U.S. integrated, like a Total TTE trades here, Shell S-H-E-L trades here. These at $100 oil will have north of 15 percent free cash flow yields. So if you are looking for a solid four to six percent div, you've got it. And I do think that these companies were better positioned than some of the U.S. ones going into that. We're going to have a conversation about what the higher oil prices mean. Guy referenced it in India. I mean, there are places where higher oil prices are a disaster if they are sustained. And what's really disappointing, as someone that's been, you know, I invest a lot in Europe, and we've seen a recovery in European manufacturing and industrial. It was a big day for the industrial manufacturing readings today in the U.S., but that Europe really is fragile on this front. And we saw that Russia, Ukraine, that when you had that spike in oil prices, it really hurt Europe. Yeah, we have that problem here, though, too, right? If you think about other than at the pump, you have a situation where manufacturing, there's a whole host of industrial, there's a whole host of other uses, right, for oil here. And if you go back to 2022 when we had CPI at 9 percent, I mean, gas at the pump was about four dollars on average. Right now we're about three bucks. Right. But that is down considerably, obviously. But we have not been going. You know, we're three ten last year. We're three fifty the year before that, that sort of thing. So if this is prolonged here and you start seeing inflationary pressures, not just for people's consumers, but as it's worked into the input costs of a whole host of other things, I mean, that is obviously going to put a floor on inflation at some point. And so, you know, one of you guys just mentioned that, you know, they're going to want to wrap this up. This is probably the genies out of the bottle here. You know, this is not June in the bombing. There's a whole host of other things going on. So, again, I think we should be prepared for inflationary readings that start to tick up a bit. Is that what was behind the 10-year yield going above 4%? I think it was. I mean, I think it's a combination of the fact that, you know, all we heard about for the second half of the day is how the Fed has got one cutout in September and everything else is off the table. So from a interest rate perspective, from an inflation perspective, again, I mean, the ISM numbers this morning, the prices paid component were the most since 22 when we had all kinds of inflation bottlenecks around us. Make no mistake. Prices for at least building materials, whether it's aluminum, steel, copper, are going through the system. We're seeing better industrial, but it's going to lead to higher oil prices and it's going to definitely lead to higher producer prices. Yeah, I was surprised to see with that number, though, is really hot. It might be something we'll look at later, and there was something to explain why it was so far off and what expectations were. But normally we saw the dollar strength, so you would think U.S. treasuries, maybe that's shorter end of the curve. People want a flight to safety. It's still, I think, a flight to safety trade. But the 10-year, I was surprised at the magnitude of the move. Not good for a home builder. PMIs on Friday sort of then back up everything this talked about in terms of ISM. Inflation's a problem regardless of what you hear. I mean, it's still there. And I was surprised on Friday that the bond market traded as well as it did. But maybe that was the flight to quality in anticipation of. Maybe the right move in the bond market is lower. And I read some articles over the weekend talking about how events like this historically, you can make an argument, especially with this whole de-dollarization thing, which is either alive and well or still holding on by a thread, it's bearish for the bond market. So stay tuned for that. Meanwhile, President Trump speaking about Iran today for the first time since launching strikes over with Israel over the weekend, saying the war could go on for weeks. Our Eamon Javers got the very latest from the White House. Eamon. Melissa, we've got a new update now from U.S. Central Command on American casualties so far in the war with Iran. this out from US CENTCOM just over the past hour. They say that as of 4 p.m. Eastern time, March 2nd, six U.S. service members have been killed in action. They say U.S. forces recently recovered the remains of two previously unaccounted for service members from a facility that was struck during Iran's initial attacks in the region. We also learned today that three American fighter jets have been shot down during the course of the war so far. Those air crews were able to safely eject and they're reported to be in stable condition. We heard from the president, as you say, in the East Room earlier today. He talked about those American casualties based on the information that he had at the time. Here's what he said. Today we grieve for the four heroic American service members who have been killed in action and send our love and support to their families In their memory we continue this mission with ferocious unyielding resolve to crush the threat this terrorist regime poses to the American people The President said the military campaign is expected to go on for weeks. He said the main objectives are the Iranian missile program, their nuclear program, and their capacity to push terror into the region. So at some point, we'll see what the next level of U.S. military engagement is. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying on Capitol Hill late this afternoon that the major thrust of U.S. military action hasn't even happened yet, Melissa. Back over to you. Yeah, the hardest hits have yet to come. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers from a snowy White House here. Were you surprised at the market reaction or lack of reaction in today's session, and the ability to come off the low set right at the beginning of the session? It's going to sound like Monday morning quarterback. It's not intended to be, but the answer is no. Historically, we've seen over the week, these things typically happen over a weekend. The market initially has that reaction on a Sunday night, all negative things, and then over the course of the day, you start to realize that this is not the end of the world. And through the lens of the market, things start to even themselves out. So the answer is no. I was surprised at how poorly the bond market traded, And I was surprised that for some reason around 11 o'clock this morning or so, you had a huge bounce in Bitcoin, which had previously been under pressure. Short of that, the day made sense to me. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to see how gold and silver reacted at times. Gold was showing its safe haven. Then it gave some ground back silver. Like, no, I'm all about spec. And Bitcoin, as Guy said, recovered at some point. The rotation that we have been seeing for markets, though, plays very well for the kind of a backdrop that we have here. So rotation into small and mid cap, equal weighted industrials. You know, the transport space is kind of mixed. You think that there are a lot of people that are affected. FedEx has talked about they have to shut down certain parts of their business. There will be delays. But for the most part, a lot of the shippers, a lot of the rails actually have a tailwind to EPS from this. Airlines tend to trade off right away. But quoting a note in Wolf's research that they said that the six months after that initial sell off is actually a great time to own airlines. So we'll see. All right. For more on what the war in the Middle East could mean for energy stocks, let's bring in Piper Sandler's Derek Podhazer. He's a senior research analyst at the firm. Great to have you with us. How do you walk through? You put out a note today saying this is going to be the energy, the playbook, basically. and you use the past as a guide. And it seemed like all the scenarios that you went through, the historical scenarios, point to land drillers being the place to be. How did you get to that conclusion? Yes, well, no, thanks for having me. So we use the past as a guide to inform our decisions of what we think is going to happen when we see an oil price spike, like we saw over the weekend. And all the history shows us that it's U.S. land stocks that typically outperform. So we looked at four different examples. We looked at last June 2025, Israel strikes Iran. We looked at May 2025 when U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tarot pause. February 2022, obviously Russia, Ukraine. And then September 2019 when the Saudi Arabia's oil facilities were struck. And what we've seen every single time is the U.S. land-centric stocks. That's the land drillers, the pressure pumpers, the smid cap names, and particularly for a large cap, a halibut. And then on the flip side, we've seen some of the more defensive names underperform. Think of like a technique FMC, that's FTI, Baker Hughes, anything more production-oriented. So that's the conclusion we came to. And today, that's exactly what we saw. We saw Patterson kind of lead the charge. That's really the last remaining North America pure play on the drilling and completion side. We saw players like ProPetro, ProFrac outperform. And then on the other side of things, we saw, you know, surprisingly, Halbert actually just stayed flat during the day. That was the biggest surprise. And then more of those international names, those are the ones that are underperforming, which is quite interesting. Think about Nessar. That's your Middle East pure play name. Helmert campaign, H&P Neighbors, and a Cactus. Those are other stocks with more international focus. And that's why you're seeing them pull back today, just given what's going on around the Persian Gulf area. How long does that performance last, according to what you found, Derek? I mean, is this sort of a one-day phenomenon, or is this actually a lasting bump? It really depends. And I think it depends on where oil prices go beyond this. I think that the duration argument was big today when speaking with a lot of investors. Will this be a one-and-done? is the fighting over, is the fighting going to last? Obviously, with the Strader-Harmus closing, that's an indication this might go on for a little bit longer. But we don't know. But if that continues to go on, then I would still suspect that the U.S. land names will outperform because they really are on both sides of the barbell. When we see an oil price spike, the U.S. land names will go first. And on the flip side, if we see an oil price collapse, like we saw during Liberation Day last year, and that was really the driver behind putting together this playbook, we saw the U.S. land names fall first. So it really just depends on the duration, whether this gets faded or not. And if there is duration here, then I would assume that the U.S. land names would continue to go. Yeah, Derek, I don't know if you heard the conversation earlier, but what we're saying was the energy stocks in aggregate were sort of on this trajectory anyway. This sort of sped things up. So there still seems to be some valuation cushion with all these names, regardless, in my opinion, of outcome. Is that fair? Yeah, I think it's fair. I think when we put on our outlook last December, we were starting to get positive on the group as we saw these cyclical tailwinds beginning to converge both international U.S. land and offshore. And then when Venezuela happened beginning part of the year, it really accelerated everything. I mean, most of these stocks are up 30, 40, 50 percent to start the year. And there really is valuation cushion. There is precedent. We took a look back to see where multiples could re-rate to, particularly of the large cap service names. And there is precedent that shows there is room to run from a multiple perspective. So I think this does accelerate it. I think going back to U.S. land, if oil prices remain elevated and the EMPs believe in the duration of the trade of the oil price, they get more comfortable putting supply back into the market. If supply is going to be curtailed overseas, that's when you could see the service opportunity really present itself, particularly with those drilling completion names. you need more land rigs drilling, and particularly you need more completion crews, the frack crews, to be out there for the pressure pumpers. And that provides a whole other dynamic, whether we're short equipment or not. We're much more short equipment on the pressure rubbing side than we are on the land drilling side. So that would be the ProPetros, the Liberties, the Pattersons, the ProFrax. Those are the names to look at if this trade continues to have legs. Derek, great to have you with us. Thank you, Derek Podhazer, with his energy playbook. We are not anywhere near what the worst-case scenario has been projected to be for the price of oil. CSIS says worst-case scenario is $130, which is a whole different kind of trade when it comes to energy stocks and also consumer stocks and the markets overall. So if you're in the E&P business, what do you do at the spike to $120 oil? Do you turn it on, right? You need comfort. Right. How long do you need to be that way before the production sort of, you know, the cure for high prices, high prices, but also we have more production. But I don't know how long it has to be that way before it really starts. But I would just get back to positioning and what has been the trade going into this. I mean, as we all know, the energy weight in the S&P and what people need to do in terms of being invested in energies is not much, except for the world that we've lived in for the last six to nine months is one where I just think that these trades have more legs, because I think people have seen where resources, where kind of hard asset trades continue to have some viability. And if we do have industrial production at these levels, this is two months in a row. This is a notable change from where we've been. I realize this isn't the entire U.S. economy, but this is important stuff. I think these trades go on. Coming up, we'll have much more on the global impact of the conflict in the Middle East. But first, what J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had to say about the state of private credit and whether the worries surrounding the space are warranted, plus a heavy dose of software trading, the big move in the IGV and the names leading the charge today. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. it really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon speaking today with our own Leslie Picker covering a wide range of topics, including the impact of the Iran war, inflation, AI, and his thoughts on the recent credit concerns. Here's what he had to say. So credit will have a normal cycle. I believe that it'll be worse than a normal one when it happens. So there will be one. And that's because of complacency. You know, asset prices are very high. Credit spreads are very low. I don't think a lot of people have seen a credit cycle. Not everyone who makes loans is very good at it. So that those bad actors may be banks, not private credit. Sounds like you're saying nothing to see here, Karen. Well, I'd love for that to be the case, but I think we are going to see a, you know, I think we'll see the normal credit cycle. Well, one thing that maybe people don't think about is JP Morgan and other banks all on the street do lend to private credit. So it's not that they're without exposure. So, you know, the smoother the cycle, the better. Yeah. And I think that was the point he made last week, right? That some people are making dumb moves. And he was talking about competition. And so it's interesting to mention that private credit, some of the risk taking there or the lack of transparency or, you know, just kind of different quality of credit is not going to be the problem. It's going to be some of his competitors who are lending to them. You know, to me, I don't know enough about this, but when I saw the banks, the money centers in particular, kind of joined the party about a week and a half ago after we saw whatever you want to call them, investment managers, private credit, private equity, I mean, the swoon that we saw there over the last two months was pretty remarkable. And then when you had the banks start to join that weakness, to me, that was saying something different. On a day like today where you saw a big reversal, I mean, Blue Owl opened down 4% after this traumatic move over the last two weeks or so. Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, all of them. And then they reversed higher. It's interesting that JP Morgan did not close higher in a couple other banks. So, again, it does feel like a normal credit cycle is probably going to be very different than the last couple we've seen. and maybe it's going to be a bit more engrossing because you think about how financialized the AI build out has been and then some of the headwinds as it relates to AI on enterprise software. I mean, you put it all together and it seems like a pretty confusing sort of package Last year around this time American Express made an all high I think 330 or so And then by April like everything else it had cascaded lower Now that was obviously for other reasons But in terms of the credit story look at the move in American Express over the last couple weeks And if you want to go to the beginning of the year, I mean, the stock is probably down now 23-ish percent from its all-time high. And that one-day move is probably one of the biggest downdrafts we've seen in a while. To me, that might be a precursor to some credit stuff. I just think banks have had the perfect storm of being also part of just somehow part of an AI trade, too. I mean, banks were suddenly going to be disintermediated. I mean, I'm sorry, but this is a beneficiary for banks. I think it's creating opportunities for blown out, you know, blown out names and whatnot. Having said that, if you look over in the mortgage space, whether it's a Walker Dunlop, whether it's a Rocket, whether it's a Loan Depot, I mean, these are places where you've actually seen very much concern. And it's not software. It really gets into both the consumer and it gets into parts of the mortgage world. So I think you do have a mix. I just think it's it's it's nice for the money center banks to say. And Jamie Dimon has been largely right. And there's no question that J.P. Morgan has a position of which they can be conservative because they can be. They don't have to reach out for bad credit and good for them. And that's why they are best of breed. But I do think a lot of the private credit players have taken a lot of scraps off the table for Wall Street. And I think Wall Street wants him back. Coming up, software stepping up, the group rebounding after its recent rough patch. But can the gains last? And should you be adding these names to your portfolio right now? You're watching Fast Money Live from the Nasdaq Market Site in Times Square. Back right after this. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money Rebound and Software Stocks Today. Amid heavy volume, the IGV, which tracks the group, up more than 1% today with volume exceeding its 30-day average by 40%. The software ETF now up almost 8% over the past five sessions. Among the notable gainers today, Microsoft up almost 1.5%, shares up nearly 4% over the past week. Although, interestingly, Microsoft was on lighter than average volume here, so I don't know what you make of that. Well, you know, there's been a lot of talk after that was Centrini report about how basically AI is going to rip the face off of software. Well, what's gone on right now is that it's ripped the face off the valuations and the way people are thinking about the terminal value of these companies. But there's been a lot of defenses since then. A16Z had one. Bill Gurley was on a Stratechery podcast yesterday. They're saying that there's unusual values here, and people are kind of misunderstanding that there are massive moats for these companies. There's network effects, right? There's switching costs. There's a whole brand. There's a whole host of other things going on. And so it really does feel like the folks that are in the trenches, even the ones that are investing most in AI, still feel like there's some great opportunities in the software space right now. So the one that I have the most exposure to is Zoom communications. And I don't know if you saw, traded down a lot in the Zoom-pocalypse, I mean the SaaS-pocalypse. But I don't know. I find between the huge amount of cash that they have, the anthropic position, when you back those two things out, it's now trading at maybe six or seven times earnings. The quarter was very good. But, you know, one could argue, all right, this quarter doesn't matter. It's irrelevant. We're going to be seeing this in the very near future. Not yet. It's sort of like, you know, being told you have a terminal disease. You might survive or maybe not. It'll be really bad. That's what that's the sort of, you know, prognosis for some of these. I sort of think of Zoom as a survivor. I want to add, I'm kind of inclined to do it, though, with calls to know the downside. Right. I just think Microsoft at this point, which has been dead money for two years and, you know, a lot of pain for people that bought it significantly higher, is not only at levels on the charts that are interesting, but when you're starting to say you've got a 23 forward handle on this thing, I mean, it's interesting. And I realize that some of their business may be different. But I feel in the broader sense of in the same way we give Apple credit for this installed base, I give the same credit to Office. It's not going anywhere. It may be they may be able to not have to charge as much, but I think they're going to still get their pound of flesh. So, again, I like Microsoft here. You mentioned the volume in IGV, 33 million shares, typically trades 14 and it traded from lows to highs today, which is a good. Listen, last week we said it today helps. I think the low for the short term is in an IGV. Come here. More market reaction to the Iran war. And why our next guest says the risks to the economy are being underappreciated. And more on that when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. stocks recouping most of their early losses as investors digest the latest developments of the war in Iran. The Dow, which had been down 600 points at the lows, ended the day down just 73 points. The S&P 500 virtually flat, while the Nasdaq gained three-tenths of a percent. Paramount holding an investor conference call this morning detailing its acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery. CEO David Ellison announcing that following the merger, Paramount Plus and HBO Max will join to form a single streaming platform which could rival Netflix. And some after-hours action. Software company Asana topping earnings and revenue estimates. Hydrogen fuel cell developer Plug Power higher after posting a beat on revenue expectations. And database software maker MongoDB plummeting after topping EPS estimates and revenue estimates, but lowering P1 guidance. Well, even with the muted market reaction today, investors still face geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump said the U.S. is equipped to go far longer than the projected four to five week timeline in the war with Iran. Our next guest says markets are underrating the risks to energy and the economy. For more, let's bring in BCA Research Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Matt Gorkin. Matt, great to have you with us. Hi, thanks. Good to be with you. What are the markets getting wrong? Because the markets shrugged it off today. Yeah, they pretty much did. I mean, a 7% move in oil. If you had told people five or 10 years ago that the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked and the U.S. and Israel would conduct a joint campaign to cripple the Iranian regime, they would have thought that the oil price would rise by maybe 30%, maybe 50%, maybe even 100%, given that this is a fifth of world oil flow and 15 or 20% of world natural gas in liquefied form. Is the broader risk to the economy and the markets, does that really stem from a bump in oil prices beyond what we're seeing already, or is it something else? No, I mean, the Middle East economies make up about 4% of the global economy, and they will slow down as a result of slowing investment and uncertainty and some of the damage. But the real risk here is the oil channel. And the oil is reacting as if we're having a minor shock. But when you look at the profile of the war itself and the actions taking place that are preventing shipping from going through the Strait of Hormuz, that should be a major shock. So what we should see is either that the president declares an early victory and starts to negotiate with the existing remnants of the regime or the regime is just completely thwarted and rejected in their various attacks and the market moves on. Or worst case, and I think the most likely case, the price action has to move back up to price a major oil shock, which is what we seem to be having in the strait. So, Matt, let's play the geopolitical game because China imports more oil than any other nation in the planet. I think it's 10 million barrels a day or something. The majority of it comes from this region. President Trump is supposed to meet with President Xi in April. Does this jeopardize that in any way, shape or form? Yes, this attack definitely jeopardizes their meeting. It could go on, but it could get canceled. There's not a lot of trust between the U.S. and China anyway. And you're correct. About 42 percent of China's oil comes from the Middle East. And this is a stranglehold that the U.S. is demonstrating that it has over the region. And it's not just the direct oil supply, because, of course, the U.S. wouldn't really cut off China's oil unless they were having a war over Taiwan or something. And that's not what's happening. But what's happening is the U.S. is showing that it's the dominant player and that the Middle East will not be a block that's, you know, part of the Eurasian block of the de facto Russian and Chinese alliance that's been taking shape. And in some way, that's sort of what this war is about. But, Matt, you mentioned Taiwan. I mean, what does this do between this and Venezuela? The Chinese have carte blanche, right? I mean, especially when we're arguing this isn't regime change and that this is actually really just about specific threats. And in Venezuela's case, they were absolutely regional threats to us. So just talk about China, Taiwan. And is this now something that you put a probability on? What is that? Well, I do have about a one third chance that China uses hybrid or quasi military action to increase the pressure on Taiwan. And that could happen this year or next year. Over the long run, unfortunately, I think we should be somewhat we should be very vigilant and very guarded about the situation. I I'm afraid that China may not see a pathway and Taiwan may not see a pathway to maintaining good relations without having some kind of significant conflict. But that's way down the road. I mean, what you're witnessing here is that the U.S. is flexing its muscles and taking low hanging fruit regimes that have already squandered their domestic stability and flexing its capabilities. And then China, you know, invading a mountainous island that's defended by Japan and the United States. That's very costly. And they've seen the problems that Russia has faced in Ukraine, which should have been an easier invasion. Matt, in terms of what is going on specifically around the strain and the oil infrastructure, what – the strain is closed now, so what are some of the other sort of points of pain that you're looking for to actually get oil prices to spike higher? I mean, is it further hits, for instance, to specific infrastructure sites? I mean, what are we looking for? What will the markets finally react to? Because it seems like the strain of hormones was a foregone conclusion, or maybe it's because it was de facto shut down already because insurance costs were so high for shippers going through the channel. Yeah, I think the markets believe that President Trump will wave his wand and sort of declare an early victory and start negotiating quickly like he did in Venezuela and effectively accept that the regime is going to stay in place, but they'll just be a personnel rotation. The problem is that the Iranians face a much more dire situation. and it's in great part because of their destroyed economy and the uprising that's happening there and the fact that the US and Israel are then going to be attacking the regime from the sky So the regime is facing existential risk and that means that they continue to strike infrastructure and shipping And it could look like what we saw with Qatar We could see facilities refineries ports pipelines get damaged. That would clearly escalate, and that would push the oil price up significantly. But also just a longer duration of inactivity in the Strait of Hormuz would force the market at some point to recognize that there's going to be a big drawdown in inventories and the price needs to move up. All right, Matt, great to speak with you. Thank you, Matt Perkin of BCA. So do you think the markets are underestimating the risks or are we taking it in stride? I think there's no question that the markets today spoke. And I know tomorrow's, you know, at 930 is going to be a new day. But markets are telling you that right now they don't see those risks, that those risks were out there Again, this was a VIX that was north of 20 going into the weekend. We kind of knew some of this was happening. I'm not saying that there's no outcome. There's an outcome here that's perfect. But right now, markets see just that, 4% to 5% of global GDP and oil under control. You know, Karen will say, and I'm putting words in her mouth, but a VIX at 21 is sort of no man's land. And traded up to 23 today. I still think you have these tremors over the last couple months. I still think there's a move north of 28 coming to a theater near you. I don't know what it's predicated on, but I think it's out there in the weeds. What do you actually say about that? I'm sort of agreeing with everything the guy says today. But also, I think we touched on it before. Trump's resolve for a long drawn out is not there. And so I think he is. I don't know what the pain point is, but he'll reach it and then he'll resolve it quickly one way or another. Coming up, cost concerns why skepticism over AI build-out expenses is spooking some data center investors with details in Fast Money Returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Oracle's five-year credit default swaps hitting levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors increasingly concerned over the cost of the company's AI build-out. Oracle stock, meanwhile, was up almost 3% today. The company expected to report earnings early next week. Dan, you've been sort of voicing concerns over this, particularly after CoreWeave's report last week. Yeah, I mean, listen, we're getting down to the four, fifth, six players in this thing, right? And so these are the last ones to get these contracts. I know CoreWeave in particular has a neocloud. I mean, they've had contracts for a while. Microsoft was predominantly that business, 70% of it. And, you know, as we get to a point where Microsoft has actually, we don't know what the demand is for some of the products. Obviously, Azure is a really important part of their business going forward. But if we do see a pullback in CapEx because there is basically a flattening demand, then the guys like CoreWeave and Oracle, they're in a lot of trouble. And CoreWeave in particular, if they can't get the funding to build out the capacity and they can't fill the deals that they've done, well, then that business goes away. And I think a lot of the investment case for a CoreWeave is that ultimately they're going to get to a place of profitability and they get a lot of leverage on that build. But I just don't think that's happening anytime soon. There's an odd disconnect on the GE Vernova, which is very much tied to the same play up big. You have another one, Qantas services up big as well. So is there going to be all this building or is there not? Right. One's one, you know, one sector is telling you, yes, absolutely. And the other is telling you, oh, wait, wait, wait a minute. Not so fast. All right. Or is it sort of the you know, you're going to buy the stocks that are receiving the money as opposed to the ones that have to fund a build out. And so there's more safety in a GE Renova and an NVIDIA and, you know, the memory makers, for instance, as opposed to the core weaves of the world. I don't know. Well, I don't think there's any question that safety is where investors have been leaning. And it's just the conversation we were having during the break, which you didn't hear, but we were talking about how the mega cap tech stocks weren't as defensive today or they could have been more defensive in the past when they didn't have balance sheets that had debt that had people start to at least wonder where free cash flow. With Oracle, there's no question people are concerned. Now, part of the rally in Oracle stock today, I think, is also the fact that you had a convert that was priced last week and you had a lot of people selling the underlying. And I think some of this is just kind of share class art. That's not what we were talking about. That's not at all what we were talking about. A lot of us are glad nobody heard during the break. We're talking about family affair. The show. Oh, well, yeah. Of a different era. Of a different era. I don't want to. I didn't think anybody wanted to really hear about Buffy and Joey. They don't. Sorry. Coming up, how AI is shaking up the investing landscape and how the growth in prediction markets is changing the trading world. The CEO of Moo Moo Trading joined us on that and for his read on investor sentiment. More Fast Money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. As AI's involvement in trading and predictions markets continues to evolve, investor strategy must also adapt. Moomoo is an online trading platform with over 28 million global users and $159 billion in client assets, according to its website. CEO Neil McDonald joins us here on set for more. Neil, great to have you with us. Thank you. What is the retail appetite been for stocks, particularly as there have been so many concerns about AI displacement and credit concerns? I think you'll find that our client base tends to be longer than Mag7. They tend to be very, very well-versed on AI. with the big rotation that's happened over the last month. You've seen, I think someone described it as a duck market. The index isn't moving, but everything else underneath is kind of moving furiously. We've got 120 plus stocks moved 20%, and the index hasn't moved. Great for dispersion traders, but confusing to investors. So that big rotation out of the tech names into the staples and energy. Our clients didn't sell. They were writing calls, writing call spreads, buying puts. But Thursday, Friday and today, they've been lifting those hedges and using it as dip buying today. So we saw upside buying in NVIDIA, in Tesla and Amazon today. Who is your trader? I'm just curious. It sounds like they're very active. It sounds like they use options very often. So what's the idea of what the returns are on their portfolios, too? They amaze me on a daily basis. So you're in the markets for a long time, Guy. And retail used to be who everybody wanted to trade against. They didn't have the information, the access or the tools. So the Internet sold the first one. Firms like ourselves gave you the access. And then social media gave you a distributed help group of people. We've got this big 28 million person community in the global. And so it's like having a crowdsource risk management. You say, what do I do here? So we find our clients don't panic out. They're more long term. We have clients who've owned NVIDIA since the end of 2022, 2023. and they've never sold. They've bought every dip. Liberation Day last year was our biggest single influx of cash. When I trade by myself, I get FOMO, I get panic out, all this emotional stuff. Having that community means you tend to do that less. Yeah, there's a lot of sophistication without question. And over the last couple of weeks, energy, which nobody was talking about last year, I'm sure a large percentage of your client base has found a way in their energy over the last couple of months. Does that seem sustainable to you? It's never. So if I look at our top 10 list, top 10 traded underlies, oil was never there. We saw that creep in. Gold and silver went from for our option trading activity, went from gold was number 25. It got to number five silver from 15 to number three in our most traded options list. So I think they're opportunistic around where they see movement. what separates you from some of the other new upstart platforms i mean other than apparently you love the new york mets like i do and you offer all kinds of incentives for people to get to games and and have an enjoyable experience guy domi unlike what's happening in the bronx anyway why why mu mu why mu over any of the number of legacy players there's lots of great companies out there there's lots of great i think our difference is the community which is something you can't You can't build in a day. It's taken us 13 years to build this interactive, like an internal Reddit. I think that's our main difference. And then talk about retail investors being, when you were a trader, they were the people you'd like to trade against. The progression from having the tools, having the information now, having the risk management, the AI is the next step to really level the playing field. We introduced it last year, and I thought I'm never going to use it, I use it every single day. Our platform and others have AI, but it's being our investors use it on a daily basis. Great to speak with you, Neil. Thanks for coming in. Appreciate it. Thank you very much, guys. Thank you. Let's go, Matt. Yes, right on. Love that. Wow. I mean, I haven't heard that on our air. Well, you haven't asked. Tim says it, but no one else, really. What is it about Guy that everyone looks at? You've been in the market for a long time. But he has. It's just like something, you know. But you have also. He's seasoned. Well, listen. Guy's seasoned. What we all had to say is really important. I mean, like, yeah, we're fun. We sound smart. We look great. You know, that sort of thing. But at the end of the day, I mean, you know, technology is really changing the game. And it's been democratized. And so have at it, people. Have a ball. Up next, Final Trades. Final Trade time, Timbo. Yeah. So love me some energy. Love me some upside energy. Vol to sell calls on the XLE. That's right. Karen. Yes. So my Sasspocalypse one, I'll be looking at Zoom calls tomorrow. No pun intended. Just the calls. Dan. Yeah, I'm with you guys on the Salesforce. Zoom, Sasspocalypse. I think it's getting a little overdone in CRM. I think you play it, obviously, through IGV without the idiosyncratic risk. You know, it's great that we're all back together again. It's going to be great for us to be back together again tomorrow, Melissa, isn't it? Oh, boy. Excuse me? Anyway. Devin, Energy TVN. Thank you for watching. Fast Money, Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now. and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
