What's up y'all? I'm Skyler Diggins, 7-time WNBA All-Star, Olympic gold medalist, and mom. And I'm Cassidy Hubbard, host and reporter for nearly 20 years, covering the biggest names and stories in sports and mom. And this is and mom, a community for athletes, game changers, and moms of all kinds. Dropping May 14th. Tap in with us. Do you ever wonder what's in your lotion? If you look at the back of the bottle, it could contain more than a dozen ingredients. And they may not all be regulated. The threshold is so high that only 11 cosmetic ingredients have been restricted by the FDA since 1938. This week on Explain It To Me, the chemicals lurking in your cosmetics. New episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Rage & Models, I'm Sky Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlev. If you're not already, please make sure to get subscribed to our YouTube channel so you stay up to date on the latest politics news. Alright, let's get into it. We're a month into the war with Iran and the messaging couldn't be more split or, I don't know if that's the right word, confused, sclerotic, head up your ass, makes no fucking sense. Really bad. There you go. Really bad. That's probably better. President Trump is touting real progress toward a deal while Defense Secretary Pete Hexeth says we're closer than ever to winning. What is winning, white man? Even as he acknowledges Iran can still strike back. So which is it? Are we nearing a deal or bracing for more retaliation? At the same time, the conflict is expanding. The U.S. is flying B-52 missions over Iran targeting supply chains while Iran maintains its grip on the Straits of Formos. Driving tanker attacks and rising tensions across the region. And back at home, it's starting to bite. Gas prices are up, supply chains are tightening, and the risk of a prolonged conflict is turning into a real political task. So what's the end game here? Here's Secretary Hexeth earlier talking about the timeline. Let's take a listen. Military objectives that we're moving toward and things that we look at. And has he's articulated? He's said four to six weeks, six to eight weeks, three weeks. It could be any particular number, but we would never reveal precisely what it is because our goal is to finish those objectives. And we're well on our way. And the chairman and I look at this every single day. It will be the president's determination and the president's determination alone when those objectives are complete and when it serves the interest of the American people to cut that deal. To make sure that Iran doesn't have a nuclear capability and ultimately that our objectives or our interests are advanced. It was such a frustrating press conference because he brought up an objective that is now off the list. Secretary Rubio laid out the four objectives yesterday that are left. And by the way, there's no language anymore about obliterating anything. We're just trying to diminish things now, which of course on the sliding scale could be anything from, like we nicked it to we blew it up a little to they're already firing more missiles than they were last week, which is a huge deal and change in the state of play. But when he talks about nuclear material, that's gone. Regime change that lets the Iranian people live freely, that's gone off the list. And I don't know if you saw this, the Wall Street Journal reported last night and then Trump confirmed it this morning on True Social, that he's open to an arrangement where the US leaves before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. So that essentially just leaves Iran in charge of the Strait and they can negotiate any deal that they want. We know already that they're making more money than they were before. They're cutting their own deals. Like all the tankers that are going through aren't our tankers, right? They're Pakistani tankers, Indian tankers, Chinese tankers. They're supplying the world with oil again, just at a higher price and filling up their coffers, plus the 14 billion that we gave them back when we eased sanctions on them in a middle of a war that we said was existential for us. It's so unbelievably frustrating and like it continues, you know, the drumming from the right of, you're not a patriot. If you're just calling out, using their language back at them, it's like my favorite thing to do on the five where I say, you don't even have to trust me, right? I'm just going to give you a series of quotes of high ranking Republican officials and the things that they're saying. And you can see how they don't match what they said 24 hours ago. It's a completely schizophrenic administration when it comes to this war. And I'm worried that it's just going to, like the final nail in the coffin of the global world order. So Poland doesn't want to help us. Spain and Italy in the last 24 hours have come out and said, like, you can't land here en route to that. The UK doesn't want to information share with us in the way that we typically could rely on. And we're saying we're going to peace out before the Strait is reopened. What will be the main achievement of any of this? Yeah, it's even if the Islamic Republic was open to negotiations, what do they even start negotiations around? It's not entirely clear what the administration is asking for, what their objectives are. And the most disturbing part of that word salad was it could be any number in terms of duration. Well, does that mean it could be eight years and $3 trillion? What it just feels as if we have absolutely no credibility in the international community. Russia has a tighter relationship with Iran than we have with our European allies right now. And what's interesting is that China, who I initially thought was going to be a big loser here because of the dependence upon oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz, might end up being the big winner because the Western countries who fucked up and maintained a Western alliance and tried to be dignified with the president, South Korea, the Philippines, Japan, they are just as energy dependent or dependent upon imports as China, but China's oil is getting through. So relatively speaking, China is about to expand its economic dominance in Southeast Asia or in Asia. Meanwhile, all of our allies are like, oh my God, it all comes back to that great animal house quote, you fucked up, you trusted us. Whether it's Canada letting their export volume go to 75% of their exports into the US thinking that they had a great relationship with us, or whether it's Asian nations and our allies thinking, well, the US appears to know what it's doing even when we disagree with them. We're going to keep quiet. We're going to continue to share intelligence. And now arguably the strongest ally in history with us, at least for the last, you know, call it since 1945, has been with the UK and made with the exception of Canada. And now the UK is saying we're not going to provide you with information. So words matter, communication matters. And even if someone in the IRGC said it's time to negotiate our back channel, who do they call? What is the message? What is the administration looking for? And also, every day this goes on with this flailing. It's like trying to deal with a drunk octopus. It just, it makes them look like the adults. It makes us look like the bad guys that the world community can't trust. Well, on top of it, you know, part of the calculus of the Trump administration has always been that we're going to re-center our ally, Nexus, to the Middle East, right? And create these great partnerships with the Gulf States. And the Gulf States are saying you have to keep going. Like you can't poke the bear and then leave us here, essentially, at this point. And so you have this push and pull from the signals that he's getting from Americans at home. I mean, his approval rating was generous yesterday when I said it was a 40 percent. And now a number of polls that haven't been in the mid-30s, even low 30s, right? You have gas hitting over $4 a gallon today. What's diesel up to? Like $5.50. So that decimates, you know, trucking industries, housing, construction, et cetera. And we're saying, like, you got to focus on what's going on at home. Our European allies are saying, this is so harebrained and you haven't been able to give us a decent briefing to explain what a decent set of goals are. Or what an exit strategy is. And so no one's happy on that side. And then the Gulf States aren't even happy with what's going on. Would they prefer a world without Ayatollah Junior in it and the IRGC as it's currently constituted? A hundred percent. But we've even stopped taking out key members of the leadership, which I feel like is an admission that this is kind of it, right? That, you know, there is no Delcy Rodriguez waiting in the wings for when, you know, she can come into, well, it will definitely be a he in Iran. But you know what I mean? Like, there's no moderate leader that you feel like you can make a deal with. And some of the more moderate forces that we've seen are now just out there trolling Trump online mercilessly. Like, everybody knows what his game is, right? That he's going to tweet a couple of hours before the market opens, try to smooth things over. And I feel like, you know, we tried to put out our best AI slop from the White House account with the, you know, Super Mario themed battle plans. But we're getting trolled worse than anything that we're producing at this point, which I'm sure is even more humiliating to him than whatever is actually happening on the battlefield. So just some data here. The war has now cost more than $25 billion. And I think it's important that we start creating context around the cost. So that's enough to pay for Medicaid coverage for over 3 million people for a year, free tuition for a two year associate degree for nearly 3 million people and give nearly 30 million children free school lunch for a year. I think Bernie Sanders proposal for free college was $50 billion a year. And there are some people saying that this is a quagmire that ultimately is going to cost a trillion dollars. And I think one of the most, so the first ballot hall of fame, geopolitical catastrophes of the last of this, I would argue, of this century was George or W deciding to go into Iraq. You know, trillions of dollars, 4,500 US servicemen, I believe lost hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq. But philosophically, I think the real damage that was done was that the administration Bush said to America, we can have wars and cut your taxes. And the problem is the American people believed him. And the American people are not, I do think there are no good wars, but there are just wars. And I think the way you need to justify a war is to put it in the context of what will the increase in our deficits be? What will this cost? And what are the other things we could do with this money? I think that is a, I think that needs to be a static part of decisions around any program or any military adventure. Because sometimes I would argue it is worth it. And you could make an argument, maybe what could go right here? If we take out the premier sponsor of terror, which I believe Iran is 42 the last 42 years, rated number one state sponsor of terror, I believe we've been in a war with Iran for 47 years, not two weeks. And it started when this regime came to power by their decision to take 112 Americans hostage. The right analysis though would have been the escalation in the war. What would it cost us? What are the objectives? And is the incremental cost based on different scenarios, which they didn't anticipate? Is it worth it? And we, for some reason, seem to be so good at measuring trade-offs around, well, Big Tech may be causing one in 18s to harm themselves. But the trillions of dollars in incremental market capitalization are set against that harm and we decide, well, maybe if it's not justified, maybe it's worth it. We don't do that analysis around war anymore. We just assume, oh, W said we could go to war for eight years and lower taxes and the American people believed him. But I would like to see, and I think some outlets are doing a good job of this, of every day saying, what does this cost? And I wonder if and when the Democrats take control of potentially the White House and both chambers of Congress, if we might see just as vicious a lurch back to the left and see really significant, really significant military, a cut in military spending, because what's the point of spending $1.1 trillion a year if you need to make these types of incremental investments? It feels like we're circling the drain right now. It feels like it's just getting worse and worse. Any additional thoughts, or Jess? Yeah. I mean, the lack of interest in the MO of the campaign trail for Donald Trump, which was, we're going to doge federal government, right? And that we're going to start with the Pentagon, which has never actually passed an audit, is standing in very stark contrast to what's going on now. And they have all but given up on the idea of trying to get the $200 billion supplemental that they wanted, because no one's going to vote for it, even Republicans aren't going to vote for it. So now they're talking about taking it from healthcare. And you're absolutely right to be framing it around, you know, is it this or is it that? And that's what the right had actually been able to do super successfully, right? Like, that's how we got to the point where Donald Trump was believed to be the peace president. And he ran a very successful campaign on making people feel like they were being ignored because we were giving money to Ukraine. Not even close to the amount of money that Ukraine needed. And it was an excellent return on our dollar for it. Because America First was all about, you got problems at home, right? Like your energy costs are up, your apartment costs too much, or you can't get on the housing ladder, your groceries are, you know, too high. And now it's like they've had a complete lobotomy and forgotten every single thing that they not only used on the campaign trail, but used effectively and were able to win from. It's nuts to me, like when I'm sitting there talking to my colleagues and I say, you guys threw this in my face for years, like, why are you just repeating the same mistakes? And I don't think that there's a scenario in which the average American feels any safer from this. The thing with Iraq and Afghanistan, and granted it was, you know, predicated on a lot of false information. But there was a direct link between what was going on there and the types of people that were in power and American peace and security here, right? Like that's what 9-11 did. It made you afraid that who knows what could happen, right? It could happen in Pennsylvania, it could happen in D.C., fly into the Twin Towers, etc. I get it that everybody can acknowledge the very true stat about Iran being, you know, the biggest state sponsor of terrorism, but I don't think that people feel that. And they only do in the last couple of weeks because there have been attacks that are spurned by what is going on in Iran. I think before that there wasn't, it wasn't really on anyone's radar. And they've just been screaming from the rooftops that from the moment we kicked off Liberation Day to today, Donald Trump has been focused on everything but lowering cost of living for everyday Americans. Well, it's a tired analogy, but it bears repeating. Can you imagine if Biden or Obama did this? Your show, The Five, it would be called The Seizure. I can't even imagine. It would be 60 minutes of literally people having an absolute uncontrolled, apocalyptic seizure of anger and disbelief that they would do this. So just some additional data. Since the start of the war, oil is up 60%. Gas prices in the U.S. is up 30%. Gas prices in Europe are up 75%. So when we take action unilaterally, it ends up we heard other people, including our allies, more than we heard ourselves. Fertilizer is up 50%. That's another thing people weren't talking about as we go into the growth season. The markets, S&P down 7%, the Dow down 7%, European stocks down more 8%. Japanese stocks, a great ally. Well, they're really fucked. They're down 12%. See, above they're more dependent upon energy and their tankers are not getting through. And global stocks are down 9%. And then let's wrap it all into one big number. And that is the OECD's 2026 inflation forecast has risen to 4.2%. And this goes back to a broader theme. And that is, I think Republicans like an uneducated populace. Because 4.2% doesn't sound, that sounds manageable. Oh, inflation's 4.2%. That's nothing to be alarmed about. But if you take math or you take algebra in high school and you're any good at it, what you realize is that 4.2% of your compounding means the following. Okay, we just had a kid. We're opening a 509 account. Why? Because to get our kid through the University of California, Santa Barbara or SMU, it's going to be probably a half a million bucks we need to start saving now. No. If it costs half a million now when the kid is born, if inflation holds at 4.2% for 18 years, that means the cost will be a million dollars in 18 years. 4.2% sounds manageable, maybe even a little cute and cuddly. That means every 18 years, the price of everything is doubling. So no, you don't need to save half a million. You need to save a million. We need inflation down at 2%. And that means, that means your grandkids will have to pay a million, not your kids. People don't see just how impactful these numbers are. And then I'll finish off with this. Kalshi is saying there is a 32% chance traffic at the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 15th. A quick disclosure, Kalshi is a data provider for us. We use their data around politics, geopolitics and economics. We don't cite data anything around sports, but we do need to disclose that they're our data provider. Any closing comments here, Jess? Well, I'm glad you brought up the energy implications for our allies, because there's talk of travel holidays where people are being encouraged across Europe to not take that trip. I'd add compressed gas to the list of items that come through the Strait of Hormuz that not only increased in the cost of it, but we can't have our hospitals will not run if we don't have compressed gas. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Maybe a filmmaker. Since leaving that show, I'm challenged to sparing. I just got to hang out and try to do so. You're the one with a charmed life. Could be a politician, basically anyone who responds to my cold DMs. We're recording the whole thing in a beautiful studio, so yes, you can watch it on YouTube, or you can listen wherever you get your podcasts. This is not the place to get the news, but it is the place to feel a little better about it. That sounds like a lot, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Complex and unprecedented, the Spanish authorities are calling it. Antes del desembarco, asintomáticas. Passengers who'd been stuck aboard the Hanta or maybe Hanta virus-stricken Dutch cruise ship, disembarked in the Canary Islands this weekend, prompting the highest stakes game of where are they now, since maybe COVID? Some of the evacuees, American and French, have since tested positive for the virus, and yet public health officials seem remarkably calm. We do have one individual who was taken to the biocontainment unit early, early this morning, and we assess that individual. They are doing well. Possibly because this is not the one to freak out over. Today Explained drops every weekday afternoon. This week on Net Worth and Chill, we're diving into another edition of Am I the Asshole? Finance Edition. And trust me, these money dilemmas will have you questioning everything. I'm breaking down real stories from real people who are navigating financial situations that range from mildly awkward to absolutely unhinged, and I'm giving you my unfiltered take on who's in the right and who needs a serious reality check. Because let's be real, when it comes to mixing relationships and finances, someone's always asking if they're the asshole. Learn how to set boundaries, protect your wealth, and avoid becoming the villain in your own financial story. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com slash your rich BFF. Welcome back. I wanted to ask you about the Magnificent Seven, because that's kind of this parallel story that's going on. Obviously we're losing tons of value from the market generally, but trillions in value of the Magnificent Seven has been wiped out. What do you think is going on there? This was just like something I wanted to talk to you about. Like are investors cooling on AI? Is there something else that's going on? I think these companies just got out over their skis and they were looking for a reason. So year to date, they're off 14%, or somewhere between 14 and 16%, depending on how you look at it, and the S&P is down 6%. So they have over indexed down, but they had just such an incredible run for the last several years. I don't know if it's because of the war. I don't know if it's because people are figuring out that there's no way they can sustain or offer the type of efficiencies amongst their clients to justify the market capitalizations of these companies. I don't think it's directly related to the war. I think that people were just looking for a reason to take some money off the table and also having a really tough time justifying these valuations. But more importantly, more importantly, for the first time, I am insanely jealous of Jessica Tarloff. Do you know why I am insanely jealous of you? I mean, literally, I wish that was me. Because you can't pull off this level of pink? Why could that have been me? No, well, one, that's true, but I don't need that. There is something that happened to you that I wish I aspire to register someday. What am I talking about here, Jess? I think you're talking about the fact that the leader of the free world took a break from the war on Iran to call into the five when I was not there. And to shit talk me. And you really liked it. I texted you right away. Let's listen to the clip. Mr. President, the next time you do this on the five, can we have you on set? Because we really want you to sit next to Jessica. I think you'd be a good influence on her. Well, I think I watch Jessica and I'm not a fan. And she uses fake numbers. She'll give, well, he's only polling 42%. That's not right. polling very high, actually. I'm sure I'd like her. I'm sure she's a lovely person. She's a lovely person. She really misses the fact that she's not here. I get it. We're working on her. Don't worry. Now, tell me, did she not want to do it or did you kick her off? We didn't kick her off. I like all of your shows, actually. I'm glad Jessica's not there. Because I think, no, actually, I think your show would be better without it. But, you know, who am I to say that? I think it would be a lot better. But Kennedy, you're doing an excellent job. Oh my God, Jessica. This is your crowning achievement. I mean, he should just be busier than all of this. Like, obviously the polls aren't fake and like 42% was even being generous. But it hurts my soul that we have a president that thinks that cable news, like, Chacho is such real life to him that he can develop these kinds of opinions. And then also, like, you're my president too, right? Like, I am saying this for everybody that he shits on. Like, when he says to Katelyn Collins, like, you should smile more when he goes after, you know, the fake news media, when they target individuals. It's like the job is to govern for all of us, even if we don't like you. And he just constantly misses the bar. I mean, he can't even see the bar. So my advice is the following. Don't be so mature. This is a huge win for you. In some, he is scared of strong women. And as FDR said, judge me by my enemies. So I would ask everyone to judge Jessica Tarloff by her enemies today. This is a huge feather in your cap that you are living rent free in the brain of a guy who clearly watches way too much television and whose views that you articulate upset him because the truth has a really nice ring to it. This is an enormous accomplishment. I couldn't be more proud of you, more excited to be associated with you. This is a crowning achievement for you. This means you're relevant. It means you're right. It means you're unafraid. As I said, judge Jessica Tarloff by her enemies. All right. Thank you. So I want to go a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates now five days a week, we're now available on sub-stack. Subscribers get ad-free episodes, live streams, and a place to connect with me, Jess, and the rest of the community. Find us at ragingmoderates.proptimedia.com. Also, as I continue to pat us on the back, big news. We've been nominated for a Webby Award for best news and politics podcast. We need your help to bring it home. If you're new to our channel, you can go to vote.webbyawards.com, vote.webbyawards.com. You want to send President Trump a message? Go to vote.webbyawards.com and cast your vote for Raging Moderates for best politics podcast. Show us some love. That's all for this episode. Thanks for joining us today. See you later. .
