The Iran War Has No Exit — ft. Ian Bremmer

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Find new episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. episode 394 section 394 is new york law not currently in force that requires social media platforms to let users report hateful content in 1994 the hit sitcom friends aired how do you spot the blind man at a nudist beach it's not hard Get it? It's not hard? Go, go, go! Welcome to the 394th episode of the Prof G-Pod. What's happening? In today's episode, we speak with Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm in GZero Media. Ian has been on the show 15 times. One, I think he's very insightful, but also I just like Ian. He just makes me feel better about the world. He's so easy to say. He just is like, yeah, the chance of a nuclear war has gone up from 10 to 20 percent. And here's a picture of Moose, my terrier. He calms me. He takes the temperature down inside my mind, which nobody wants to hang out in. No, let's avoid that part of town at all costs. But yeah, I'm a big fan of Ian. I think he's great at what he does. he's built a small business or not so small business and generally just a nice guy. Anyway, with that, we hope you enjoy our conversation with Ian Bremmer. Ian, where does this podcast find you? I am back in my office in New York City, sunny, spring-like New York City. Thank God we need something. That's nice. So let's bust right into it. Abroad, the war in Iran drags on with no end in sight. Blockades were exchanged. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and talks keep collapsing. At home, we had another incident of political violence earlier this week, the attempted assassination of the president of the White House Correspondents' Dinner. Ian, in your view, what's the state of play in geopolitics right now, particularly in Iran? The biggest thing that happened today is the Emiratis, ally of the United States, unilaterally withdrew from OPEC, an organization the Americans don't like and is now going to be weaker, more fragmented, more led by Saudi Arabia. That is part of what is a growing divide between an Emirati bloc and a Saudi bloc on security, on economics and technology in the Gulf. And definitely the Iran war has accelerated that pretty dramatically. But take a quick step back. The other big news this week out of Iran is that the German chancellor publicly said the United States is being humiliated. The French president publicly said that the U.S. president, the Russian president, the Chinese president are all directly against Europe, acting together against Europe. Those are those are things that at best you usually hear with inside voices. You don't hear them saying publicly. So, I mean, this this unwinding of U.S. alliances, this anger and fragmentation geopolitically, both in the region and more broadly, is clearly becoming more front and center. And, you know, there are questions over how much this is in America's advantage over the short, the medium and the long term. But the anger, the feelings are raw and the view that these institutions, these alliances are not serving the purpose of the U.S. or the allies. Those things are growing and becoming much, much more direct. And the pain that comes from an Iran war that we're now in the third month of no end in sight, as you said, the economic consequences are massive, as well as the geopolitical is really leading to a lot of a lot of anger and hostility and mistrust on the global stage. So maybe that's the way I would frame it just to start. So I want to bifurcate it into what I think is a really interesting story, and I'm interested to get your take, and that is the UAE deciding to divest or leave OPEC. And then obviously U.S. allies be getting more strident in terms of their criticism of the U.S. Why would the UAE see it to their advantage to alienate other Gulf partners in OPEC, weaken OPEC? what what is the mechanization and the sort of the industrial logic behind the uae coming to the decision that they're going to leave opec so scott there are lots of reasons it's hard for me to tell you which ones are the most important but they all move in this direction one is that um dubai uh which has been like so much of the model of of future growth like we're the switzerland of the Middle East and we're attracting all these expats and everything is safe and stable. And you've been there. I've been there many times. Right. That that looks a lot more vulnerable when suddenly the Iranians are able to shut down the strait and use their missiles to strike directly your five star hotels, your airport and the rest. And so, you know, suddenly you see Abu Dabi, the capital of the UAE, willing to focus much more on what they see as in their national interests right now. And that is we're aligned with Israel. We're aligned with the United States. Those are the countries that are coming to our aid, not the Saudis. We are going to sell as much oil as humanly possible in the near term as soon as the strait is opened at higher rates. We're not going to align with voluntary restrictions on oil export because we can make money on that now. But long term, we've got to diversify away from oil. We've got to focus on tech investments. We've got to focus on post-carbon energy. That's the win for us. then you have the fact that their view on Iran and this war is completely different from Saudi Arabia. The Emiratis really want the war to continue. They certainly don't want to see this Islamic Republic stay in place, and they don't want this regime to have the military, the ballistic missile capabilities, the proxy support, or potentially the nuclear capabilities. In that regard, if the war were over today, in six months, in 12 months, I could see the UAE joining with Israel in so-called mowing the grass, which you and I and Dan Senior talked about a few weeks ago when we last had a public conversation. The Saudis, on the other hand, their principal alliance outside of the U.S. is with Pakistan, a nuclear power. And they are increasingly aligned with Egypt, with Turkey, but also are thinking long term about how to make a deal with a post-war Iran to ensure their own security. They don't need to use the strait. They don't have to worry as much about Iran disrupting it or tolling it because they can get 7 million barrels a day through the Red Sea from their export terminal in Yanbu, the east-west pipeline that they have. They're focused much more on a 35 million strong population that they are they want to make sure has the ability and the money to develop, not an expat heavy 90 percent population that the UAE has. And so this war, again, there have been fights between MBS and MBZ that predate this war. We saw that play out in Yemen. We saw that play out in Sudan. And we've seen that play out in financial decision making. But it has been accelerated and intensified by the war and the very divergent responses to the war geopolitically, militarily and economically by these two very successful countries with very different models. And I think that's what has led to the UAE to make this announcement, an announcement that's made when the strait is closed. So it doesn't have any proximate economic impact tomorrow, but it will. It would not surprise me if the Emiratis leave the Organization of Islamic Countries, the OIC. I have heard from both the Emiratis and the Saudis and others in the Gulf that they think the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, which is the overarching regional framework, however loose, is not fit for purpose anymore. so that could also fall apart. It's becoming a G0 Middle East in that regard. Yeah, one of the stats that just blew me away is that more projectiles have been shot at the UAE from Iran than Israel. I mean, it appears that Iran has decided that the UAE is, you know, absolutely not their ally. No, no, no. And it's a lot closer. It's a lot easier to hit If you're Iran, you need longer range missiles to hit Israel, which they don't have many of. And Israel, much more hardened targets. Do you think this brings one or the other, the UAE or Saudi, closer to Israel in the U.S. and alienates the other? I mean, I see this as a pretty big deal. One, I hate cartels, so I'd like to think over time this lowers the price of oil for everybody. But this does feel geopolitically like a pretty big shift in the chessboard. I don't like cartels. I don't like monopolies, whether they're U.S. platforms or they're global commodity unions. And in that regard, the breakup of OPEC will lead to more competition and lower prices over time. I believe that is true. And that certainly redounds to America's overall interests. Now, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both allies of the United States militarily. they both rely on the U.S. for intelligence to a very great degree. Now, Saudi Arabia, their missile program is provided by China, and that is important. It's also because the Americans weren't about to sell tomahawks to the Saudis. Longer term, I see Saudi Arabia becoming more aligned with China in terms of who's going to buy their oil export, and Saudi sees themselves as the big producer of the last inexpensive barrels over decades that will still be needed in a global economy that's transitioning, but still very much reliant in part on oil and gas. I also think that the Saudis will be more enticed to buy Chinese technology, including AI, Because it will be less expensive for their own population than the Emiratis, who will want to be more aligned with the U.S. military industrial technological complex. So for now, both of these countries are still aligned pretty strongly with the United States overall militarily. Over time, I expect that that will become more true for the Emiratis and it will become less true for the Saudis. There's also the kleptocracy piece, the fact that so many billions of dollars are trading hands from the Gulf to the Trump family and the Trump inner circle. There's also massive investments made into the United States. I think that the Saudis, even though they've promised a trillion dollars and Trump went there at the beginning of the term and he made that huge announcement of how much the Saudis were going to give them. I think the Saudis are much more likely to downgrade how much money they'll put in the U.S. And they will they will reprioritize domestic investment for their own sovereign wealth funds, while the Emiratis, I think, are going to be doing much more globally. And in that regard, they will be seen as deeper pockets and more attractive partners for a lot of Western multinationals. So these things are, again, I think geopolitically there are lots of consequences that will be playing out for a very long time on the back of this war. But the most immediate and consequential is probably this dynamic, which we are seeing play out with the headline of the Emiratis leaving OPEC. So, Iran has offered to reopen Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz, if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade and ends the war, setting aside or kicking the can down the road for nuclear talks. Secretary Rubio called it unacceptable. Trump canceled the Islamabad follow-up talks. A ceasefire technically, technically, is doing a lot of work here, holds. But both sides keep probing. Qatar is warning of a frozen conflict. Who do you think has more leverage right now, Washington or Tehran? The Americans say they have more leverage. The fact that the Germans spoke the way they did implies they think the Iranians have more leverage, which is not helpful. I will say the Iranians have an information advantage. They have an asymmetry here, right? Trump for a very long time has talked about the fact that you never know what Trump is going to do is an advantage, right? Like he could do crazy. And so people have to be careful with him. Well, we actually know less about the Iranian leadership, who is willing and capable of ultimately implementing a decision, how decentralized the decision making process is. And we don't have good information on who's saying what to whom. We're in the United States. We've got polls. We've got impact on the markets. We've got all sorts of people inside the Trump administration. They're talking to the media. So it is easier for the Iranians to assess that Trump wants a ceasefire, that he's not he's looking for an off ramp, that, you know, he's promising the American people that this war will be over soon. I mean, all these things. It's very hard for the Americans to make that assessment of the Iranians today. Now, America, of course, is vastly more powerful than Iran. And so in principle, that should give the Americans a lot more leverage. And yet the Iranians are showing that they are willing and capable of taking a lot more pain. 150 of their leaders have been assassinated. No American leaders have been assassinated. No Israeli leaders have been assassinated. So the Iranians are taking a lot more damage. They've got over a million people displaced. They've got well over a thousand dead. Americans 13. So, I mean, the Iranians are clearly showing that they are capable of tolerating a lot more pain than the Americans had expected. They're also showing that their military capacity at this point is much greater than the military planners in the U.S. believe. And here, Scott, I'm not talking about what Trump thought, having ignored what a lot of his military planners were telling him. I'm actually talking about the military planners. They are very surprised. CENTCOM is very surprised that in the third month of this war that the Iranians still have over 50 of their ballistic missile capacity intact They very surprised that after strikes on launch pads that in some cases the Iranians were able to dig them out and relaunch within 24 hours. They're very surprised by that. They're surprised by the hypersonics that were able to get through American defenses in the Sultan Air Base in Riyadh and destroy American advanced aircraft. They're surprised by the range that the Iranian missiles were able to show to launch a small attack on the base of Diego Garcia. So there has been more capability shown militarily on the part of the Iranians, despite all this damage. The long and the short of it, Scott, is that it's hard to say who has more leverage here, but it is clear that President Trump is looking for an off ramp. It is clear that President Trump is not in any way interested in a short term return to war fighting. And it's not as clear what the Iranian incentives are in this environment. So I'll put forward a thesis and a way to respond to it. It feels like the president has really backed himself into a corner that they can't just leave. They could be accused. I love I think it was you use this term of having a glass jaw. It doesn't matter how big and scary you are. If you get punched once and you're down and you're out. I don't think they can politically leave if the Strait of Hormuz is not open. I don't think it can be. We broke it. It's up to the rest of the world to fix it. At the same time, it feels like every day that the war goes on. Iran. Can claim credit for surviving and that whether it's the Taliban, the Viet Cong or now the IRGC, they win by just surviving. It feels as if, one, do you agree with that? And two, what is the likelihood that the U.S. is able to enforce free passage of the Strait of Hormuz and then leave, you know, kind of declare victory and leave with what is arguably a weakened around in terms of its military capacity? But then do they just leave the Gulf states more vulnerable? It definitely feels as if he's painted himself into a corner here. Your thoughts? Yeah, I think you've framed it extremely appropriately right on the money, Scott. This is the question I'm exercising myself with and my analysts at our firm every day. I think you're right that Trump feels like he cannot just cut and run here, even though that is clearly the right thing for America's national interest. The longer this war goes on, the more damage, the more costly. But Trump is unprepared to declare victory, even though he has tried to. I mean, how many times has he said the straight is the European problem? It's the Asian problem. They're they have to deal with it. He has said this. He has set himself up to declare victory and leave, but he's not willing to do it because he knows it just looks horrible. It knows it feels like too much of a loss, even for Trump, who is one of the most incredibly shameless at saying things that just aren't so and willing them to be the truth for himself and his supporters. Even he does not believe that this is plausible and credible. And yet we're in an environment where the baseline outcome, even if he were to declare victory and leave today, the baseline outcome is worse than the deal that was on offer to Jared and Whitcoff by the Iranians before the war started. It is a worse outcome than if Trump had not left the Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA, at the beginning of his administration. And it becomes a worse outcome for every day that he chooses to continue with this blockade. The costs are so much greater than the benefits of continuing with this fight. And he's chasing. He's chasing the dragon. Right. I mean, he needs a bigger hit and a bigger hit every moment. And he's becoming two pot committed. And you and I both know we've seen, you know, people with gambling addiction problems. They they end up getting themselves in bigger and bigger holes. So this I think that he should declare victory and leave. What he seems to believe right now and what I've been hearing from the White House is and this this reflects him saying to the public, You need to be more patient after he told the public that we're going to be done in two to three weeks max. The war will be over. That has proven not to be the case. He told the G7 allies a few days, just a couple more days. And at the beginning of the war and the Iranians are going to surrender, you know, unconditionally. That that turned out obviously to be very, very far from the case. He's now saying if we just give it another month or two privately, then the Iranians will be under such economic pressure because of the blockade, which isn't biting yet and isn't biting in part because he suspended the sanctions on Iran at the beginning of the war so he could keep the oil prices low, turned out not to be such a foresightful move, that then they will be forced to come to the table and negotiate more seriously with the Americans and give him the nuclear win that he is seeking. That is a theory of the case that is plausible. It will cause far, far greater economic damage to the U.S. and globally to the American consumers, American voters. But that also relies on the idea that the Iranians are negotiating in part in good faith and on the basis of a clear eyed view of their national interest and not out of revenge or vindictiveness or ideology and theocracy. And and that there are a suitably unitary actor to implement what the negotiators agree with. And all of those things are open to questions. So for all of those reasons, I think that Trump is only getting himself in deeper and deeper trouble. So you're right. He painted himself into a corner. But like that doesn't mean digging yourself into a hole after you're painted in the corner. Right. I mean, it's a lot at some point. Logic tells you, OK, you're going to get some paint on your shoes. Walk out of there. Walk out of there. Do you think they can do you think America can feasibly leave without ensuring free flow or free navigation to the Strait of Hormuz? They can't. The question is, what are the implications of that? Now, I think that were the Americans to do that, the Iranians, if they were to charge prohibitive tolls and no one signs up to it, only very small numbers of countries, then oil prices are still high. The Americans could easily turn back to a blockade at any moment. So that option remains there for the United States. Number one, turn the money off for the Iranians. Number two, you've got the option of what Trump intimated by saying it's the problem of the other countries is they end up doing deals with the Iranians and you can call it a toll or you can call it reconstruction money. You can have sanctions suspended again off of Iran and then a whole bunch of the oil is actually getting out. And then the Europeans may send some destroyers and other ships to help ensure the navigation. And the insurance comes back online and the ships become crude. and then prices come down again and the US economy has taken comparatively less of a hit than most of the other economies in the world. Now, is this embarrassing for Trump because you still have the same Iranian regime in place? Well, yes, but I don't see any strategy to remove the Iranian regime at this point. It's not like Trump is still talking about rescuing the Iranian people. The Iranians would still have their nuclear capabilities, But Trump has said now on a few occasions that if they try to get those at those nuclear capabilities, we've got satellites on them. We can blow them up at that point. So, again, there aren't you and I looking at this, Scott, it's it should be plainly obvious to everyone, irrespective of what Trump admits to, that there's no win here for the Americans. So the question is, how are you going to reduce your losses in ways that allow everyone to move forward? And I do think the best, the least worst scenario at this point is to conclude the war and open the strait as soon as humanly possible. And I would have argued that six weeks ago easily. It would have been much better than now. I mean, I don't see what's been gained in the last six weeks other than far, far more economic damage. We'll be right back after a quick break. Support for the show comes from ShipStation. 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Go to ShipStation.com and use code PROPG for 60 days for free. 60 days gives you plenty of time to see exactly how much time and money you're saving on every shipment. That's ShipStation.com, code PROPG. ShipStation.com, code ProfG. I sit down with the best athletes in the world and explore the psychology, mindset and unseen battles on the path to greatness. So take a seat and learn from the confessions of an elite athlete on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Support for the show comes from Vanta. If you're a business owner, you've probably seen the shift. Risk and regulation are rising, and customers now expect proof of security before they'll even sign on. Building that trust is critical to closing deals, but it's often costly, time-consuming, and complex. Vanta says that's exactly the problem they've built to solve. Vanta automates your compliance process to bring compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI-powered platform. So whether you're prepping for a SOC 2 or running an entire GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving. This helps companies get compliant fast and remain compliant, opening doors to next level growth opportunities and freeing up valuable time. That means no more digging through audits and spreadsheets. Instead, you get a system working quietly in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk, and helping your business scale quickly and with confidence. Companies, including Ramp and Rider, spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta. That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth. You can get started at Vanta.com slash Prop G. That's Vanta, V-A-N-T-A dot com slash Prop G. Vanta.com slash Prop G. So let's keep moving around the globe. I get mixed reporting, mixed messages about the war in Ukraine. I see that the oil infrastructure in Russia is being damaged and that Ukrainian drones and technology are increasing or ramping up their attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and registering a lot of success. At the same time, I see other reports that Russia's industrial machine is just overwhelming Ukraine with more and more drones. Give me what you think the state of play is in that conflict. For the last three months, Ukraine has taken back a small amount of territory. And that is because the drone capabilities and the unmanned ground vehicle capabilities are increasingly changing the advantage on the front line, if not in favor of Ukraine, at least no longer in favor of the more highly manned Russia. Russia benefits from the war. They're selling a lot more oil, gas, fertilizer commodities at higher prices. Some sanctions have been suspended by the U.S. Furthermore, the Ukrainians are having a harder time getting access to some of the weapons that the Europeans want to buy for them because they are in short supply and necessary now for the Iran war, American weapons. So there is a tactical advantage to the Russians that come from the Iran war, but the war itself between Russia and Ukraine has at best for Russia shifted to a stalemate. Where the Russians are showing more advantage is that they now are manufacturing more ballistic missiles. Their drone capabilities are not what the Ukrainians are, but they're high. And they're now launching a lot more of those record level rates and some days more than we've seen at any point in the four years of the war against Ukrainian cities. And the Ukrainians are running low on interceptors, not not not on the lower tech drone responses, but interceptors for ballistic missiles having a harder time defending their cities. So you could imagine a situation where the Ukrainians end up taking more land back, but the Ukrainians also take more casualties, civilian casualties in cities and their own critical infrastructure becomes more damaged. Their economy gets more hurt. Still, I guess your big takeaways here, and this shouldn't surprise you, number one, zero incentive of Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in the near future. And number two, zero slowdown at this point of the Ukrainians to continue to defend themselves because they no longer need quite as many troops on the front line. And that's been the biggest vulnerability is that they've had harder time raising reserves in a Ukrainian democracy than the Russians are that can send North Koreans. They can send, you know, mercenaries. They can they can send convicts, all this kind of thing. The Ukrainians have a disadvantage there with a smaller population. That's becoming more balanced. Do you see any resolution here? What do you think looking 12 months in? I mean, we're now several years into this war. Does either side have an incentive to figure this out right now or to come to some sort of resolution? Doesn't look that way. You know, you know, Trump has his top priority foreign policy when he became president was to end the war, his repeated quote of 24 hours, it'll be over. He's failed at that and he's admitted that he's failed at that. He frustrated about it blames the Ukrainians at least as much as the Russians which is not analytically sound but it does express his frustration that he doesn have the leverage to muscle around Putin in the way that he does with Zelensky. So that irritates him. The Europeans are all in supporting Ukraine, and they're spending a lot more money on their own defense. Certainly the Germans are, the Poles are, the frontline states are. They're also now spending all the money for Ukrainian defense. American taxpayers are no longer spending anything on Ukraine. So this is 100 percent the Europeans. And that's what really, I think, you know, has has so antagonized when the Europeans are are doing all of the burden for Ukraine in defending a democracy that the Americans wanted to invite to join NATO. It was Condi Rice and Bush that pushed that. It wasn't the Europeans first and foremost. So the Americans are the ones doing the Europeans are now the ones doing all of the lifting for Ukraine to help the Ukrainians. And then the Americans decide to engage in a war in Iran that is going very badly. They didn't tell the Europeans about it in advance. And then the Europeans take more economic damage from the war. And then Trump calls them cowards when they don't stand up and join him. I mean, the level of anger among European leaders right now towards the United States is unprecedented in my lifetime. I have never seen anything like it. And that's even before we talk about the trade hostilities. It's before we talk about Greenland. It's before we talk about Trump's recent flirtation with Argentina and the Falklands. I mean, all of that stuff. I can give you so many more, you know, sort of count so many more data points on this. But the the Russia and the Iran wars and the American response to that, as the Europeans do feel like they're they're absolutely stepping up. They're spending money like they never have before on defense and they should have for decades. But they're also doing all of the lifting on Ukraine. And Trump's like, OK, but what are you doing for me on Iran? It's extraordinary. We're trying to find a brief moment of sunlight here. Thoughts on Viktor Orban's defeat? Great one. Absolutely. And here's one that Trump should have been in favor of. I mean, here's you've got a new leader who wants to drain the swamp. He's from the populist right. He believes in strong borders. He really opposes all the migration coming in. He wants a strong transatlantic alliance that's capable of defending itself against Russia and against the Chinese principal adversaries of the United States. He defeats Orban, who has wildly redistricted their political system and controls the media and has enormous amounts of informational advantage. And despite all of that, he was able to secure a constitutional majority. This should have been a win for a conservative nationalist, America first president. And yet Trump wanted Orban. Orban supporting the Chinese, supporting the Russians, wildly kleptocratic, deeply anti-democratic. the swamp incarnate, but liked Trump and came to CPAC and said all the right things and flattered him. And ultimately, what matters, what MAGA is, unfortunately, is what Trump says it is and what appeals to him before it helps the country. And that's the part that's going to lead him to lose the midterms in such a spectacular way. And it really plays out most clearly in Hungary, most clearly in Hungary. And it's why Georgia Maloney, who was the only European leader that came to be there with Trump for his second inauguration, has now broken decisively from Trump on the Iran war and on other issues. It's why he's losing support from the far right in France and Le Pen and Bardella and others. I mean, it's kind of extraordinary that the populist right in Europe would not be pro-Trump and pro-MAGA, and it's because Trump and MAGA are no longer reflecting the populist right. They're starting wars. They're expanding the swamp. They're not doing precisely what the people that voted for them really wanted them to do. So let's keep heading east. Thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit? What's your read on China-U.S. relations right now, especially given the war? Xi Jinping should, in the near term, he's taking it pretty hard from this war. His economy is, I mean, they say it's 5% growth. In reality, economic experts believe it's more like two to three. There's high unemployment, particularly among the youth. There's enormous amounts of bad corporate debt. And the Chinese response has been very cautious and incremental. So this is not a time when the Chinese want to see reduced demand for their manufactured exports, the one part of their economy that has been outperforming. But now you've got people around the world that won't be able to buy as much, can't afford as much from the Chinese. China has big stockpiles of oil and of commodities, but still all of this disruption from the strait is costing them. They need the plastics. They need the polymers. And they're not getting them. And when they are, it's at very expensive prices. So they really want this war to be over. But, but, Scott, the Chinese are also the one country in the world that has made the long-term strategic investments at scale in moving past oil and gas and in electrifying their economy and in having the solar and nuclear and wind at scale getting cheaper and the batteries and the rare earths and the critical minerals that are powering them. So long-term, the more this war goes on and tells everybody the future is not oil and gas, which the Emiratis clearly understand today. But the big beneficiaries are not the Emiratis, the big long term beneficiaries of the Chinese. So they are extremely well positioned, despite all their domestic challenges on the back of this Iran war. And the worse the war gets, the longer the war goes on, the more the long-term Chinese bet looks like the most intelligent bet they could make. Now, in the context of all of that, China has said, we want peace, we want this over. They've engaged with Pakistan, but they're not taking the lead in negotiations. They don't want responsibility for that. They don't expect it will go well, and they don't want to be responsible for it not going well or perceived to be attached to a failure. Having said that, they are proceeding all in with this now delayed summit in just a few weeks in Beijing, which Trump appears to be willing to continue with despite the ongoing blockade. And I do think that even if the blockade is in place, as long as the ceasefire holds, I think Trump still wants to go. Now, I think what Xi Jinping is going to do, he's going to welcome Trump like no American president has ever been welcomed. There'll be extraordinary military parade and robotic display and drone display and a huge group of American CEOs and all the corporates and all the top leadership from China will show up and they'll say, what an amazing president that Trump is. And then when Xi Jinping meets Trump directly, he's like, I know you want to be the best dealmaker and you've ended all these wars. And the biggest deal you could possibly do is we can create peace in Taiwan. And if you were just to say, sir, that, you know, you do not support Taiwanese independence. Here are all the things that we can do for you. Here's the money that we can spend. And this time it won't just be Ivanka's handbags that we're giving you licenses for. It's going to be big, big purchases of American goods and a whole bunch of stuff for the family, too. I think that Xi Jinping would be derelict in his duty as head of the Communist Party, as chairman, if he did not try that with Trump. Because we know that Trump does not care much about Taiwan. He does not care about a territory thousands of miles away from America. He wants to be seen as a dealmaker and his own advisors who are much, much more hawkish on China will will readily admit that they have no idea what Trump would do in a room alone with Xi if he's given an offer like that. Now, will Trump accept it? What will he say? How? I don't know. But I do know that Trump understands that China has leverage. They're willing to use it. He shows a lot of respect, even deference to Xi Jinping. He talks about a G2 between the Americans and the Chinese. He would never afford any American ally, ally, that kind of positioning and brand power. And and he really wants this summit to happen. So I certainly don't think there's going to be a fight. I think the question is whether or not Trump is inclined to give away the store for things that he considers personally important. so let's keep going on our world uh world tour right now another topic that has fallen somewhat behind the news cycle is cuba what do you think is going on there what do you think is the likelihood that we try and pull a venezuela on uh you know that's the best case scenario pull a venezuela or worse in iran on cuba what do you think is going on there and what do you think is the likelihood we take military action against cuba it's not an iranian type scenario uh i mean the Cubans don't have that capacity. They don't have the resources. Right. I mean, so I and Marco Rubio, I think, has who is really running point on this decision making process as opposed to Iran, which has been where Trump has been the decider, I think readily admits that there is no military solution here. So the question is how really the question is not whether whether or not Cuba is going to be Venezuela, but rather how small of a deal is acceptable that can be announced as a breakthrough. Because the Cubans are getting hit hard economically. The blockade really matters. They're not getting the energy from Venezuela or from Mexico. Rolling blackouts, you know, I mean, sanitation's not getting picked up. The buses aren't running. People don't know when they're going to have electricity. I mean, it's it's it's really this is incredibly hard for the Cuban population. And they're getting angry and they're getting angry in part with the Cuban government. So I think that the Cuban government is highly incented to see if they can do something with and for Trump. And so the question is, if it's basically the same government, if it's still the Castros, because there really ain't nobody else right now, At least no one in the country. And they're willing to open the Cuban economy to American investment big time in terms of tourism and real estate development and the rest. They don't have much in terms of commodities, some ag, but nothing that really moves the needle. If they were willing to do that with a similar government, does Trump announce that as a huge win? because it's kind of it's it's you can call that Venezuela light or you can call it Obama plus because Obama essentially was trying that he just didn't get he didn't get much from the Cuban government. Ultimately, they were slow rolling it. They weren't sure it was real and they thought they had time and they thought the opportunity would always be there. And they failed. They botched it here. It's very clear that the urgency is there for the Cubans. I don't think there's that much at stake other than for Cubans living in Cuba, Cubans living in Miami, Marco Rubio. This is not going to have the same national impact that Venezuela has or that Iran has. But it is set up to be at least a significant foreign policy win at some point for Trump. I just don't think it's going to be massive. Yeah, there's no minerals, no economic prize. 13 presidents have tried to thaw relations or do something and have failed. This is an unusual analogy, but about 20 years ago, I raised a bunch of money to go become the largest shareholder in Gateway Computer, which I realized is a really weak. Yeah, and I just want to acknowledge that's a pretty weak flex. And I met with the board and said, I want this, I want this, I want this many board seats, or I'm going hostile. and i can't remember it was ted wade or one of the guys on board said scott why don't you just start buying stock and we'd love to have you on the board it was like what you don't you don't need to come in guns blazing wouldn't wouldn't the right strategy with cuba be to show up with energy and humanitarian aid and do a deal to open mcdonald's and chipoles and just sort of in other words go the other way to use the carrot not the stick here well i i think that that is i The stick is presently being used to get to the carrot because the Cuban government has historically shown that they are very reluctant to allow the Americans to make those investments because they worry that's a slippery slope to eventually the end of the Communist Party, the end of their control. Right. So the I do think that there is a utility in in having some coercive diplomacy if the intention is to open an economy that otherwise they refuse to open. There has to be more of a stick than what the Obama administration was itself trying to accomplish, because the Obama administration had six to they had like, you know, the continued sanctions on the Cubans. But that by itself was inadequate because Cuba could deal with that hardship over many decades. The hardship is so much worse now. Now, as Trump overdone it in terms of the damage that the Cuban population is living with and under, you could make that argument. You could also argue if ultimately this leads to allowing lots of investment in. And sure, that's going to include, you know, a whole bunch of stuff that will touch the average Cuban people. What you don't want it to be is a small number of deals that Americans that are connected to Trump make money in their investments. And it's all picked up by the Cuban military and the Cuban people don't get any of it because then then Cuba is not opening. Right. That's not what you want. What you want is the opportunity for the Cuban people to develop a real economy, to like have small and medium enterprises that they can be a part of, to have employment opportunities that they can be proud of to actually themselves be able to participate in a global economy that their own country has cut them off from for 60 years now. We'll be right back. Hi, everyone. into the manosphere focuses on the incredible and horrifying influence this group of individuals has, especially on young men and boys. And recently, I caught up with Katie Couric, Amy LaRocca, and my brother, Jeff Swisher, to debunk some of the fads and misinformation behind the billion dollar wellness industry. And we talked about the important medical tests that are actually worth your while. All of these conversations are available now. You can find them on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. And we've got plenty more lined up for the summer. So be sure to subscribe to On With Kara Swisher to catch them all Is the U rivalry ultimately a race to build the future The United States and China are the two countries that are really inventing the future The future is being financed by Wall Street, invented in Silicon Valley as well as Shenzhen. I'm Jake Sullivan. And I'm John Feiner. And we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast. This week, author Dan Wong joins us to discuss America's lawyerly society, China's engineering state, and why derangement might be a prerequisite for superpower status. The episode's out now. Search for and follow The Long Game wherever you get your podcasts. Wedding season is here and your wallet is already sweating. 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Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com slash yourrichbff. we're back with more from ian bremer and finally let's return home uh you know i don't even want unless you want to talk about i don't want to talk about the shooting of the white or the ballroom i think it's such a distraction at this point um i'd be very surprised that people are talking about it in a week yeah it feels again i think the secret service did a pretty good job i mean i hate to see the violence and a third assassination attempt but ultimately the guy didn't get into the ballroom. So it's it's not this is nothing remotely close to Charlie Kirk or or the assassination attempt that came this close. Right. Agreed. Agreed. Any thoughts on the state of the parties right now headed into what will at some point be election season for the midterms? Well, so I'm interested in your views on this, too, Scott. I mean, at this point, I believe that Trump understands that the midterms are lost. I think he knows that he can't turn the economy around. That's why he's suddenly pivoting towards patience on Iran. That's why he said, I'm surprised oil prices are so low. I thought that could be $250, $300. They're under $100. I think he knows that he's in too deep. And so the midterms are lost. And so then the question is, does that make him more risk acceptant? Does it make him more willing to allow this war to go on and roll the dice and maybe even use ground troops? Because, you know, one of the things so far, one of the that has been a limitation of how badly this war is perceived as going by the Americans is 13 Americans have been killed, but no ground troops have been inserted. That could change very easily. And there are plans for that. And there are troops that are in the region for that. But Trump recognizes that they're extremely risky and they're not being recommended by his advisors. So if he knows he's going to lose no matter what, and he knows that in the following two years, he's going to become more of a lame duck. Does that make him more risk acceptance in trying to end checks and balances against him and just throw everything at the wall? Or does he give up on that and start focusing more on monetization? He's worth five billion that he's made through the presidency in the last year. How about 50? You know, how does he how can he potentially use the the the remainder of his period in time to make as much money for himself and his family as humanly possible? And I'm not saying he can't do both, but I do suspect that there will be a prioritization of one or the other. And it is not clear to me that the closer he gets to the end of the administration, whether he really is trying to go all out like Bolsonaro in Brazil. And I must find a way to ensure that my political opponents are defeated and they're investigated and they're arrested and I control the elections and I select the next person. or he just gives up on that because it ain't happening um and and he focuses on the stuff that he can do which is make a shit ton of money um as president and i don't i don't know the answer to that yeah i always learn from you and the thing that i take away from this conversation that's literally sent chills down my spine it just makes so much sense and i think the media or most of the media has missed it and it just if you just look at the fact patterns here it's such an obvious insight. But I had missed it. I think you're right. I think there's a non-zero probability he trades Taiwan for billions of dollars of personal enrichment. You're absolutely right. She can say to the guy, figure out a way, we'll work with you to kind of slow step a creeping takeover of Taiwan. You start making noises about we need peace in China and Taiwan. You would draw the military umbrella coverage of Taiwan and and wink, wink. Once you're out of the presidency, I'll figure out ways, whether it's buying billions of Trump coin or or doing hotel deals in China that are guaranteed to to work, so to speak. yeah, it seems to me that seems to me like the most obvious path here. And I love what you said that she would be derelict in his duty not to offer that. That's the cheapest way to invade China right now is to bribe a corrupt president. I mean, how far you could actually go in implementing something like that, because Congress exists, and there would be strong resistance from inside Trump's administration himself. But but that's very different from an announcement by Trump that I do not want an independent Taiwan, which creates facts on the ground. So, I mean, a withdrawal of American military engagement that that seems really hard to actually implement willingness to talk with the Chinese about what defense the U.S. sells to Taiwan, Trump is already willing to at least engage with Xi Jinping on that. Trump has already shown after the Japanese prime minister got herself in trouble in responding in a slightly intemperate way to a journalist question on whether you defend Taiwan or not. And the Chinese cut off their tourism to China, to Japan, cut off their seafood imports from Japan. And Trump's response was not to defend her position, which is aligned with the historic American position, right? It's rather calling her and said, why don't you calm it down on Taiwan? So Trump has already shown his bona fides to the Chinese as someone that wants peace and security and stability in Taiwan, even over the historic position of some of his predecessors, Democrat and Republican. The question is, how much farther can Xi Jinping push that? And I'm suggesting that that proposition is going to be tested when they meet one on one. And the best time to do that is not when it's a big formal meeting with both sides arrayed, but rather when it is the smallest possible venue between Xi, Trump, and a couple of translators. But at the end of the day, can't he just say to him in a private meeting. Yeah, we have Ohio class submarines that have the nuclear launch capability of France, each of them. And that's I would imagine that's one of the biggest deterrents to taking any sort of military action or a blockade against Taiwan by the Chinese. Can he just say wink, wink? I'll tell him to stand down. No, I don't think he can do that because that implies that what the Chinese are into here is a surprise military attack against Taiwan, which would be incredibly risky for them to do and actually, you know, cuts against everything that China's been showing us. China's the biggest move China's made on Taiwan since the war in Iran started was they invited the head of the Kuomintang, the opposition party, which is more in favor of peaceful cross-strait relations, softer towards Beijing, invited her to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping. And on the back of that, they made a bunch of unilateral offers to improve cultural and diplomatic engagement, as well as economic engagement with Taiwan, much of which was rejected by the more nationalist president of Taiwan. But this was Xi Jinping showing that the future is not about the military. The future is about we're so much bigger and we're not trying to engage in hostilities. It's this rebel troublemaker president that you have who you should not be voting for in the next elections, by the way. And, you know, he's trying to show that Trump is part of the solution. So it's not it's not a wink wink. We're going to attack and you're not going to do anything. It's more about how can you nudge, shift the table in our favor in a long-term trajectory so that there is a peaceful unification of Taiwan with China, which is what Xi Jinping sees as an ultimate legacy issue of his leadership. So you don't even think the Chinese would consider a naval blockade? Do you think it's going to be a quote-unquote, they're going to attempt a softer unification or a soft takeover? I don't think they believe it's remotely necessary in the near term. I think if things went badly in the upcoming elections and it proved to be a landslide for the DPP, I could imagine the Chinese starting to do things like boarding some suspicious vessels with the Coast Guard as opposed to the military. So it didn't require an American military response. I could see that. So, again, even in the worst case scenario, it's longer term and it's more incremental. I don't think there's anything this year that the Chinese are going to try on the military front. I think it's much more we've got a shot to really improve our ally by engaging with this guy that doesn't care about Taiwan and that he can be bought off individually and so many leaders, the Pakistanis, you know, Honduras, others around the world, leaders, former leaders, they're showing us that they can they can buy indulgences, they can buy pardons, they can buy policies. You know, this is the one thing we really want. By the way, we already gave him TikTok, which is the thing he most wanted to have control over algorithmically with his friends so that they could have more control over the media environment. Hey, we in China, we respect that. We've got complete control of our media environment. So we understand why Trump wants that. So they gave it to him. They let him buy it. Right. So, I mean, they have built credibility with Trump already that shows that we are willing to give on the things that matter to you. So you need to give on the things that matter to us. And Taiwan may matter to America, but does Taiwan really matter to Trump? I mean, it's hard to make that call. So last question here, Ian. I'm trying to be and I don't know if I'm talking my own book here, We're trying to manifest something, but it fills with Orban's defeat with what looks like to be a pretty significant pickup for Democrats in the House and possibly in the Senate. You look at Trump's popularity. When you look at the fact that the world feels more insecure and full of wars and conflict right now, might there not just be a blue wave in America, but a blue wave that absolutely sweeps the West? I mean, there are countries where you don't see that happening. Right now in the UK, you certainly don't see that happening. You see Reform UK is doing far better and labor is imploding. You don't see it in Germany where the AFD is picking up and the center left, the Social Democrats are in complete disarray. So I can give you counterexamples. But what we are seeing, I think, that reflects the broader point you're making is that in democracies where leaders are showing themselves to be wildly corrupt and or wildly incompetent, there is a real reaction function from the publics that thought that they represented them to knock them out of power. And I do think that that is a throughput line of Hungary and the United States right now. I think that Trump had a whole bunch of things that he stood for when he ran for office, ending the wars that you're fighting on the backs of a lot of people that don't have money and connections. Yeah. And those wars. Securing the borders when you're taking care, you're inviting all these illegals in and you're providing them with benefits and and you're not taking care of me and my family. No mas. Don't want any of that. And drain the swamp because you've got all these powerful people and you've got a two tier system of justice. And I'm done with that. And that's why we want the Epstein files out. And now he has gone against his populist impulses and instincts on all of these things. I mean, the border is still secure. That's gone well. But the affordability crisis is real and it's on him because of the Iran war. He's fighting an unnecessary war that Israel certainly cares about, but the Americans don't. And he's doing it at the price of the pump and of groceries and these things that like this is why people voted for him is that we're going to stop doing this crazy international stuff because you're going to take care of Americans. He even he was the guy that cut a horrible deal with the Taliban, allowing them to basically take over the country. Right. But he got to end a trillion dollar unnecessary bleeding war on the back of not well connected, not wealthy Americans. And people supported that. And now, whether it's Epstein or whether it's Iran or whether it's the economy or whether it's extraordinary corruption, Trump has gone against all of the things that got him elected. And and and I don't I certainly think, OK, there are some MAGA supporters that act like it's a cult and they'll support him literally no matter what he does. But that's not even all MAGA supporters. Not at all. This is not a these people are not brainwashed automatons. They're not idiots. They ultimately see when their leader is screwing them and it matters to them. And some of those people, they may not vote for Dems, but they'll stay home. and that matters. And the independents, absolutely not. And the Bernie swing voters, absolutely not. So I think that happened in Hungary. It was a lot harder in Hungary. Hungary, this guy had power for 16 years. Hungary, this guy made it so hard for any opposition candidate to actually come in and take out a seat. So much harder to actually win. And he didn't just win a little. He won a constitutional majority. And now Orban is giving up his seat and he's going to spend the summer in the United States. Good riddance to bad rubbish. And I think it's fantastic that the people of Hungary were capable of voting this bastard out in favor of someone that actually represented their national interest. And I feel quite confident that's going to happen in November here in the United States. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk and research and consulting firm, and GZERO Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs. He joins us from his office in New York. Ian, I always appreciate your time and always learn from you. Thanks very much. This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Genere. Cammie Reek is our social producer. Bianca Rosario Ramirez is our video editor. And Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G pod from Prop G Media.