This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. We also heard from the Chinese, a spokesperson who said that military means cannot fundamentally solve this problem and that the escalation of the conflict is not in the interest of either side. The root cause of the Strait of Humor's blockage, they said, is the illegal military operation in Iran. So this is the strongest we've heard from the Chinese as well. Whenever we're talking about China, we always want to know what Gordon Chang has to say. Gordon is an author and columnist. He is clear-eyed. He is direct and knows what he's talking about. Also, for folks who live in the area of our flagship station in the capital of Cal Unicornia, Gordon Chang is going to be appearing at the Capital Lincoln Club's inaugural Freedom Awards Dinner on May the 2nd at the Sutter Club. Get info online at capitallincanclub.com. We'll have a link at armstrongingiddy.com. Would love to be there. Sounds great. Gordon Chang, welcome. How are you? I'm fine. Thank you and thank you so much. Oh, it's our pleasure. I was just touting your upcoming appearance in Sacramento. So we've covered that and we'll have a link at our website so people can get more information easily. But we played a clip on the way back that mentioned Chinese made comments about the war and the Gulf and what was going on there. Why don't we start there? What do you think, what lessons do you think the Chinese leadership are taking from what they're seeing unfold right now? They're seeing that President Trump is determined that he is willing to use force and they believe that they can back him down. I'm not sure that they're convinced of the last one, but they're certainly trying to do that. We now have that ceasefire. The Iranians violated the ceasefire from the get-go and I guess we're gonna see if President Trump imposes costs on Tehran for doing that. Now, every time the wind changes direction somebody brings up, we'll China take advantage of this to move on Taiwan. How concerned are you about that in the near term and how do you see that situation in general? Yeah, I don't see the Chinese taking advantage of the situation. There clearly is one. We've been moving military assets out of East Asia, especially South Korea. But unfortunately for Xi Jinping, he has decimated the top of the Chinese military with his purges, which means that they are not capable of starting hostilities by launching an invasion on the main island of Taiwan. Now China can blunder into a war elsewhere. They're engaged in very provocative activities in the South China Sea, for instance. So the risk of war is still high, but the risk that people think about all the time, which is the one you mentioned, is I think off the table because of Xi Jinping's purges. Do you think Xi and his leadership are looking at the strays of Hormuzan thinking, so extracting a toll or blackmailing the world through closing shipping lanes is on the table now? Oh, certainly, because Iran has been charging tolls. It's been blocking shipping since Tuesday, the announcement of the ceasefire. And basically Iran is helping China by de-dollarizing the world by requiring the toll be paid in China's currency, the RMMD. So Iran is trying it on. The United States has had any consistent foreign policy over the course of 250 years. It's been keeping the global commons open. China and Iran are challenging that, and we're gonna see if President Trump opens the straight. President Trump has the power to do it. We can even do it without putting boots on the ground. We can do that, for instance, by closing the straight to all shipping that has paid the toll. That would force the Iranians to stop the toll, but we're gonna see if President Trump will do that. Hey, let's hit rewind real quickly. It flitted out of my mind. I'd meant to follow up. You talked about the purge of the top generals in the Chinese Communist military. What was that all about? Help us understand that dynamic. Yeah, this is one of the most important things that have gone on in the world. And basically Xi Jinping, through his corruption purges, has removed a lot of officers. Now, some of those officers have been engaged in removing Xi Jinping's loyalist from the top of the military from all we can see, which means that there is all-out fighting among the generals and admirals. There's a lot we don't know because the regime has become even more opaque over the last three or four years, but we are seeing signs that show turmoil at the top of the People's Liberation Army. We're talking to author and commentator, Gordon Chang. Gordon, I saw a piece in the journal today that bothered me. Trump quietly scraps his own playbook on China. The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, Trump won, which I praised heartily for helping the American people understand that, no, China's not our buddy, they're our adversary. Have you been watching that? And what do you make of it? More conciliatory approach. Yeah, President Trump wants this meeting that is now scheduled for May 14th. The White House announced it, but China hasn't announced it. And that's making President Trump look a little bit needy, which is not a good look for the United States, because that means it makes it much harder for him to accomplish what he wants with China. Sometime, for decades, and this goes back to the Nixon era, we have chased the Chinese for dialogue, and that has inflated their already big sense of self-importance. So I think the way we get things from China is we stop talking to them, and we make them chase us for once. If we do that, then we are able to use our leverage. But if we appear desperate to talk to China, China will certainly use that against us. All right, they're absolutely relentless and remorseless in exploiting any weakness, correct? Correct, and they have seen even strong American presidents act weak towards China. We have done that to be generous, to be indulgent, to try to integrate the Chinese into the international system, to try to entice them. But although that sounds like it should work, it hasn't worked, so we've got to pivot and try something that might work. What might work may not work, but at least it has a chance of working. What we're doing right now, it has no chance of success. Wow, that is so interesting and troubling, and I hope they figure that out quickly. So one of the recurring themes of the show, whether today or in general, Gordon, is that it makes me insane when the media reports, the day-to-day occurrences that happenings around the world, but they completely miss the big picture. When you think about the big picture with US-China relations, what do you think is left out of the discussion usually? What do people not understand about China? Well, the most important thing, which sometimes gets discussed, is that President Trump is going after China's proxies. China doesn't want to take on the world directly. So what President Trump has been doing is going after Venezuela, going after Cuba, now going after Iran, and China is basically losing its pause. So this is really good for us. The other big story that people don't talk about is that because China has turned its back on consumption as the basis of the Chinese economy, the only way China can grow is to export more. Xi Jinping, by disrupting the world through various stratagems, is basically de-globalizing the world. He's making trade more difficult. And I think that ultimately, Xi Jinping is working against his own economy. He works against his own economy. That economy will fail. And if that fails, the political system will be in deep trouble. Interesting. So, and I appreciate you talking about the actions against China's proxies, and you're absolutely right. So am I just wrong in believing that the approach is more conciliatory, or is it just choosing different avenues to exert pressure? It's choosing different areas to exert pressure, and Trump is messing with the Chinese. On the one hand, when you look at the substance of his policies, they're mostly really good. But when you look at the rhetoric, it isn't good. And so there is a, the Chinese must be totally confused by Trump, because there's only one person in the world who knows what Trump is doing, and that is our president himself. Right, right. And this is the sort of commentary, Gordon, you just don't get elsewhere, which is why it's a pleasure to talk to you. So final question. Your first book, I'm correct, was the coming collapse of China, which you wrote in 2001. Maybe you could explain very briefly the premise of the book, but how is it aging? What has changed? What are your thoughts on the longer term trajectory of China right now? In that book, I said the Communist Party would fail within 10 years. I was wrong. What happened is the 2008 downturn, which gave a lot of confidence and strength to the regime, but they overstimulated their economy. They now basically having their 2008 dead crisis, while their economy is really deteriorating fast. So China's right now at a very fragile point, and President Trump can exploit that if he chooses to do so. Okay, interesting, interesting. Gordon Chang is upcoming appearance in Sacramento again, is at the Sutter Club on May the 2nd, and we'll have all the info readily available at armstrongandgetty.com. Gordon, it's always stimulating. Thanks for the time. Let's do it again soon. Oh, well, thank you. I really appreciate it, and stay safe. Thanks, thanks indeed. Armstrong and Getty.
