5/12/26: Trump Says Ceasefire On Life Support, Trump Desperate Gambit On Gas Prices, UFO Files Breakdown

This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Good morning everybody, happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Emily, wait, what do we do? I don't know what we do. Oh, wait, the arm wants to, oh, every time with you, you gotta keep it pinned down. My heart goes out. Okay, right, right, right. We're gonna keep it there. It's fascist points, it's Emily and Sagar. All right, so we have no hand thing. We gotta keep our hands down to the desk, otherwise it might do. Ricky Bobby. Yeah, it might just get a little bit out of control. My spasm, might blame it here on the caffeine. I can't believe Crystal does this every morning and every dime I have forced to do it, I'm in awe of her. So here is what we have today. We're gonna cover the latest developments with Iran. So some interesting things, Trump saying that the ceasefire is quote on life support and the Iranians are responding. Emily and I are gonna break down. The gas tax Trump wants to suspend at some 18 cents as well as some other big movements in the petroleum markets that are all showing up in our grocery stores and at the tank right now. I'm gonna give you my take on the UFO release, the long-hyped UFO release, the TLDR. It wasn't that great, but we will go through it nonetheless. And in fact, we will at least discuss what has not yet been released according to some of the whistleblowers and other authorities out there. BB giving an interview. I know you guys covered that a little bit yesterday, but there's a very important comment where he blames social media on rising antisemitism. And it is linked to a discussion we're gonna have about a very long New York Times story released by Nicholas Kristoff, which has set a full-bone freak out in Israel, as well as with many of its proponents here in Washington alleging a large, basically systematized rape against Palestinian prisoners. We're gonna break down some of the facts within there, the controversy, their rebuttals, et cetera. We are also gonna be joined by Derek Thompson on AI, who says, actually, it doesn't look like we are in a bubble, which might be scarier in and of itself, because if we're not in a bubble, that means that the data center build out and the amount of change that they have promised, very likely is coming, at least in some form, that they said. And then finally, we're gonna be looking at the economy, fascinating story about how men are faring in our economy, not particularly well, and as well as why and what social trends we can actually see as a result of that. Before we get to any of that, please subscribe to our channel, breakingpoints.com, if you are able to help us out, subscribe to our YouTube. And if you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode with a friend. But Emily, it's great to see you. Thank you for doing this with me. I know there's been a lot of schedule change-ups. Actually, Crystal and I are gonna be on tomorrow. The coveted Saga and Crystal Wednesday show. You never see it. You never see it, you never see it. But that's what we're gonna make happen here. All right, should we start with you, Ron? Let's do it. Let's do it. Here's Donald Trump sending the ceasefires on life support. Let's take a lesson. For the time being, the ceasefire remains in place. It's unbelievably weak, I would say. I would call it the weakest right now. After reading a piece of garbage, they sent us. I didn't even finish reading it. They said, I'm gonna waste my time reading it. I would say it's one of the weakest right now. It's on life support. They understand, these are all medical people. Dr. Oz, life support is not a good thing. Do you agree? That's not good. I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support where the doctor walks in and says, "'Sir, your loved one has approximately "'a 1% chance of living.'" A 1% chance of survival. So not great in terms of where we are now. You know what's kind of crazy is, I didn't even realize this, because it didn't feel that long ago, but the ceasefire, remember, which was originally what, a 15 day ceasefire, has now been going on as long as the actual fighting was. Look, it never really ceased fire. There have been multiple exchanges back and forth, ships that were been hit by Iran, the United States striking many Iranian tankers, but I still think pretty noteworthy comments. What ultimately, obviously, you guys covered this yesterday, but this is about a total breakdown in the diplomatic process. We had the Islamabad talks, the Islamabad talks failed to deliver anything materially. We have now had multiple exchanges, Barak Ravid leaks going back and oh, we're this close to a ceasefire plan, and then the Iranians actually released their plan, and they're like, oh, well, we can't have that. Trump's saying it was a piece of garbage and shooting it down yesterday, now saying the ceasefire is on life support. This is just a deep frustration within his mind, and we're actually gonna connect it to Cuba and Venezuela later in the story, because it does demonstrate the mindset of how easy they thought this would be from the get-go, and now we're more than two months almost into this thing, and it's very, very clear that this is not, not only not ending anytime soon, but his mind is defaulting to the same place that every American president in Vietnam and in Iraq and Afghanistan always went to, which is just a few more troops, just a little bit more military action, and we could change this thing from the status quo more in our favor, and it never works out. Well, and I mean Netanyahu on his 60 Minutes interview, which we'll cover again today, because it was so long and track full of predictable, but worthwhile moments. He actually talked about miscalculating on the Strait of Hormuz, and that's where, again, you have this impasse for Trump that is just, there's nowhere for him to go. There's absolutely nowhere for him to go, other than capitulation or escalation, and that's exactly why he is frozen in amber right now. He can't move, so he's been messing with these tiki-taki ceasefires because he can't go anywhere on the Strait of Hormuz. They're not going to give him the Strait of Hormuz. They're not going to relinquish their control, their leverage there, and they, I mean, apparently have come to the table on nuclear enrichment, but that's not good enough. It's not good enough if he unfreezes sanctions, or if he lifts sanctions and unfreezes assets for Mark Levin, Lindsey Graham, and the like. So he's stuck until something gives or he escalates, and that's why it's so dangerous right now with the escalation. Yeah, actually, let's put this on this here. Just broke, you can go and take a look in our chat, Emily. We'll put this up here on the screen, guys, is you can actually see this morning, Iran has now actually claimed an even wider geographical footprint for the Straits of Hormuz than before. This is from their new state media. Tehran says the Straits of Hormuz area now goes from the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman to the island of Siri in the Persian Gulf, which are both circled in red on the map in front of you. This is from Javier Blas over at Bloomberg. He says, effectively, it means Iran sees the Straits of Hormuz as an area now 200 kilometers to each side of the Straits apex, significantly larger than in the past. Just a side kind of of where things are. It's also no surprise where Trump was actually speaking there at a medical event where he teases that he's about to go and meet with his generals about Iran in the middle of that discussion with reporters. Let's take a lesson. I am being weighted on by a large group of generals, and that's also important, you know? Having to do with the absolutely lovely country of Iran, that's the way they pronounce it. We will get started. The very lovely country of Iran. Let's put this up here on the screen. Barack Reveed again. I mean, yeah, you can't deny it. It's definitely being talked to by people on the inside. Here's what he says. President Trump is meeting with the national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran War, including possibly resuming military action after negotiations deadlocked on Sunday. US officials say Trump wants a deal to end the war, but Iran's rejection of many of his demands and refusal to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program puts the military option back on the table. Trump publicly threatened several times in recent days to bomb infrastructure if diplomacy failed. The US waited 10 days for Iran's response to its draft proposal for ending the war. The White House was initially optimistic, but the Iranian response that arrived on Sunday was not positive. State TV reported that Tehran rejected the US proposal, which it said meant Iran surrendered to Trump's excessive demands. Trump then rejected that saying, quote, I don't like it, it's inappropriate. So the people who are at the meeting is the vice president, Steve Wittkopf, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegset, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the CIA director and a few other senior officials. The ceasefire he said is on massive life support. I mean, I do think when you put all of these things together, with Trump, I mean, I almost feel like I've said this a million times, is well, he's got only got two options, is surrender or escalation. You even said it earlier. Well, he keeps trying to delay the inevitable. And like there's a very Vietnam-esque aspect to this, is oh, you send 5,000 advisers, oh sir, it's not working. That's why you need 10,000. 10,000, this time it's gonna get the job done. Now, initially you should have said zero, because obviously it was gonna fail. But every single time you climb up because it's easier actually to expend American lives or capital or just to keep this thing going, even with oil markets than it is to stand before the world and to say, I'm done. I resign if we wanna use the checkmate analogy that you guys discussed earlier. And I feel like what this really shows is trying to delay the inevitable is actually just continuing to wound us and the entire world. Because the world, it's very obvious what has happened. They all know we're cooked, it's over, right? But in the interim, by refusing to accept that, we're all still paying $4.50 a gallon in gasoline. This is just a national average, well over $6 in California. Oh my God, I was reading in Japan's stocks yesterday. They have until October and then it's over. I mean, the show is, it stops completely. And they have one of the largest strategic petroleum reserves in the world. We released more in the last week from the strategic petroleum reserve here in the US than we did under Joe Biden. And then there's no, and it was already low as a result of that Biden use, which means also that you refilling it is going to cost the taxpayer. I mean, my God, billions and billions of dollars. So when you put that, the ticking clock of all of this together, Kuwait exported zero barrels of oil. Actually, there's a story, guys. We're gonna have this in post as well. I just wanna give it a mention because the UAE and Kuwait are giving a dust up over it. Kuwait is claiming as of this morning that four IRGC connected suspects were arrested in Kuwait today, allegedly plotting an attack. The UAE is supporting them, condemning the infiltration of IRGC elements into Kuwait. It's a Babylon island to carry out a terrorist plot and affirms the complete solidarity of the UAE with Kuwait. I mean, I don't know how serious it is. Who knows, a lot of liars. I think in the region, but nonetheless, you can see that this, what this is doing to the Gulf is it's rewriting things forever. I mean, the UAE is like a client state now for Israel. They've got Iron Dome System and IDF soldiers. You've got the UAE exiting OPEC. Now you've got Kuwait with no dollars coming in. It was zero oil exported for the first time, I think since the Persian Gulf War, since what was it, 1991. Yeah, 30 years. Something like that. It's just been decades. Before I think either of us were born, that something like that has happened. And then Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf countries, they have already experienced all the catastrophic shut-ins where their amount of production, I think as of a month ago was down 25%. So I don't even know what it is today. So all of this happening, I think on top of the slow moving, it's like a ticking time bomb basically to where we're going, where we're just not gonna have, we're going to have a catastrophic either shortage or price spike in oil. It's just inevitable basically at this point. Well, yeah, I mean, even if the war were to end right now, it's like turning the Titanic around to get things back in shape, especially before the midterms. We're gonna talk more about the economic pressures in just a moment, but that's obviously where Trump finds himself is squeezed between two bad options. These are two bad options of his own making, of course, but what should concern everybody is that he now seems to be listening more and more and more to the Mark Levin's of the world, than he is listening to skeptics critics within his own administration, certainly on the outside. And that leaves, when you're looking at a rock and a hard place, it looks like one option is much more likely because that's who he's chosen to listen to, no surprise, that's who he's chosen to listen to, to be honest, but at this point, because there's a sycophancy about all of it. Well, even unless he's that out, they have a compelling argument, which is you can get out of this certain, all you gotta do is this, this and this. People like me who are like, I'm sorry, sir, you're coming, you know, people, egomaniacs, people, anybody who's got the constitution, no matter whether it's Trump or anybody, to even make it to the Oval. They don't wanna hear it, all right? They don't wanna hear that what they've done is one of the greatest mistakes in modern strategic history, period. And so it's a lot easier to listen to Levin or anybody else, but like, well, we just gotta keep going harder, like don't you be a coward if you were to do that? Again, you know, to look at the constitution of every person who is sad in the Oval and has made very similar mistakes, they might have trusted up a little better, like Barack Obama or George W. Bush, you know, yeah, we might like their delivery, but fundamentally we're all in the same boat. Did you hear Trump yesterday saying that the Kurds let us down? Yeah, I did see that. Yeah, I mean, literally came out and said that. Right, that's where we are, right? I mean, in turn, oh, they let us down because they don't fight on, oh, we've got the Majaheddin, you know, let's just do the 19, oh, yeah, that worked out real well. Meanwhile, the Iranians, let's put what is A4 up there on the screen, Ghalabov, the speaker of the parliament, he says, our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response. To any aggression, mistaken strategy and mistaken decisions will always lead to mistaken results. The whole world has already figured this out. We are prepared for all options. They will be surprised. He actually followed it up a little bit yesterday. He said, there is no alternative, but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14 point proposal, any other approach will be completely inconclusive, nothing but one failure after another. The longer they drag their feet, the more the American taxpayer will pay for it. So I was mentioning the UAE thing a little bit earlier. Well, another piece of news, I mean, it's not shocking exactly, but it's definitely confirmation. Let's put A8 up there on the screen. This is from the Wall Street Journal, story broke late last night. The UAE has been secretly carrying out attacks in Iran. One strike in April actually hit an oil refinery on Iran's Levan Island. The UAE carried out strikes on Iran, military well-equipped by Washington. The attack suggests the country is now more willing to use them to protect its economic power and growing influence across the Middle East. The strikes, which they have not publicly acknowledged, have included an attack on the refinery on Levan Island. The attack took place in early April around the time that Trump was announcing a ceasefire. The reason why this is important is that Osint analysts and others had all knew that this happened. They were like, wow, it looks like the UAE just did an airstrike. Of course, the UAE never confirmed it. However, it makes things a little bit different. Doesn't it now? To be fair, Iran did hit them first, but after that, they have been claiming, oh, well, it's all about self-defense. We haven't done anything to them when in reality, it looks like they actually have been hitting them quite a bit from their own territory. And again, it fits with their desire to drag Trump into a big, let's not even put it that way, their desire to finish the war. Because for them, it is existential. They hit the Fujera oil facility, which lets them bypass the Straits of Hormuz. Their economy into the hotel occupancy rate is like 10% in Dubai. There's all like, I think very few passengers going through Dubai Airport. This has been a humiliation on the world stage. And remember Project Freedom, which was on and then off. One of the reasons why, it seems now, originally we thought that the UAE and the Saudis were like, we can't let you do this because then we're gonna suffer the consequences. IRL, what seems to have happened, is that they were upset that Trump would not continue the war as in like the full scale war against Iran because they want him to finish the job. When he seems to have given them some assurances, oh, no, no, don't worry, we will continue to go down this more escalatory path. Then they did open up their airspace. Because for them, they feel like they can't walk away from this. They're like, this has to be done. We can't live under the shadow of Iranian control of the strait. That's where things are, as of right now. It's just, I really do feel like on the Gulf front that that pincer that they feel around them makes it so existential that they are really willing to do anything to try and push the United States into a more and a broader conflict. UAE especially, which remember has a lot of influence here in our domestic politics. I was literally just going to say I wanted to look it up to be precise, but they're building a Trump hotel in UAE. There's crypto investment from the UAE. It's always worth emphasizing that when you're trying to understand and kind of break into what might be happening in Donald Trump's brain. There are a lot of business deals on the line with the UAE. So worth remembering that in this context. It's sort of the only thing that I've heard that may be persuasive or maybe from Trump's vantage point, what's persuasive for him about continuing to twist in the wind a little bit and say, ceasefire is on live support. It's possible, they believe, they can wait out in overthrowing, not necessarily in overthrowing, but a usurpation of the IRGC from moderate in Iran. It's possible, that's what they think. Well, okay, let's look at their strategy. It just didn't work. And I think this is consistently keeps happening. You talk to who you talk to. As in, let's say you talk to the people who are willing to talk to you in Iran. So you're like, oh, things are actually moving well. So then you deliver this formal proposal. And then what happens? The Iranians have to get internal buy-in from across their government. That's why it takes them a few days. They gotta go talk to a Supreme Leader. They can't call him on the phone. The President has to weigh in. He's gotta go meet him. You gotta go all these, everybody's gotta weigh in. Oh, and then the response comes back and it's a lot different than maybe what you initially expected. Why? Because it has to reflect a proposal which is internally acceptable to all elements of the government inside of Iran. Not necessarily just the word of a negotiator. Kind of like, JD Vance or Steve Wyckoff, they don't speak for the United States, right? You have to get Trump's buy-in. You have to get the whole government to buy-in. So we have the same factional system in the same way that they do. We just have to think about it a little bit that way. And to your point, can we weight them out? I mean, it seems to be, I would say obviously, not only the answer is no, because if it was true that we could weight them out, then we wouldn't be continuing to escalate in the way that we are. Here is the Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, speaking on this front. Let's take a listen. The economic pressure on Iran right now is increasing dramatically. Not only is there government in the country losing their main export revenues because of our blockade, but also economic fury operation that we launched starting just a few weeks ago is collecting the monies of the corrupt IRGC leaders that they've scurled away abroad. We are turning the economic pressure up on the leaders of Iran to drive their motivation to come to the table. Drive their motivation. So everything is about just a similar maximum pressure combined with the blockade. And then just to link it a little bit to Trump's mindset is what I've heard this said so many times in DC, and it really does seem to have borne out here, is presidents get frustrated by the fact that they can't just wave a wand and do whatever they want on the domestic front. They have Congress, they have the Lodge, Supreme Court. So what they always end up doing is they love foreign policy because it's the only area that they actually have basically 100% control over. And even, I mean, in this case, you shouldn't be allowed to launch a war, but apparently you can under this current Congress. So what do they do? They become obsessed with leaving their footprint on the world, especially you're an old guy, you want a legacy. So that's what's really happening. You give up on the domestic stuff, which is harder. You give up on the domestic stuff because you actually have to, I don't know, do something, build consensus and all of that. And you end up focusing abroad. So Trump- Obama, JCPOA. This happens every time. Obama, Bush with Iraq. I mean, Bush literally ran in 2000 saying, I want to not withdraw from the world, he's like, we should not basically go abroad and do nation building and then becomes a nation building. President Obama, JCPOA, Biden, I mean, elected basically to calm things down and to have some sort of rational response to COVID. He basically becomes the Gaza and the Ukraine president. That's what we're mostly gonna remember him for on top of crippling inflation. Trump's second term is already defined by Iran. I mean, doge seems like ancient history at this point, right? It's gonna be Iran. That's the number one thing the history books will probably remember Trump for the second term in, at least so far, from what we know. And that's why he's obsessed with like remaking the world in his own image. So let's put this next one up here on the screen. From A6, Trump is growing impatient as the Cuban regime clings to power. They say, US officials believe that the regime could fall by the end of the year, but that timeline is not fast enough for the president. The White House says Cuba has rejected humanitarian and economic assistance to stabilize, almost certainly because it's with the talks attached or some sort of conditions. Trump is actually out with the truth literally just this morning on Cuba. And what he says is that Cuba said, he's claiming that they want to talk. He says, no Republican has ever spoken to me about Cuba, which is a failed country and only heading in one direction. Cuba's asking for help. We are going to talk. In the meantime, I'm off to China, President DJ too. In the meantime, I'm off to China. It's like he left a note from Elanian in the fridge. In the meantime, I'm going off. Look, it's very odd. Like he was promised that Cuba, he was promised Iran would be just like Venezuela. That's why he cannot shut up about Venezuela as evidence in his most recent combo with a Fox News anchor, A7. Let's take a listen. When I was talking to the president this morning, it was just before the Oval Office event. He kind of surprised me a little bit because he said, John, I just want to tell you, I'm very serious about this. So you can talk about this. I'm serious about beginning a process to make Venezuela the 51st state. Now there's a rich history in this nation of taking territories and absorbing them into the United States. Puerto Rico is one that people talk about. But this would be the first time, to my knowledge, that a sovereign country was ever invited to join the United States of America. How would that work? Well, John, I won't get ahead of what the president was comfortable sharing with you as far as those plans go. But look, this is a president who is famous for never accepting the status quo. He is always considering a host of options to improve our country. And of course, Venezuela, now led by president Delcey Rodriguez, is working incredibly cooperatively with the United States. So I won't get ahead of any plans that the president may have to that effect. But look, this has been a tremendous success. The United States revitalizing our relationship with Venezuela and in turn improving the economic situation of both countries and our people. So, okay, yeah, we're gonna have Venezuela as our 50 for eight. While we support Venezuelans, we are going to create, while we fight the scourge of Mamdani socialism, we are going to add a country with millions of ideologically committed socialists. No, no, that's not what he says. No, those are only the bad ones. We're deporting them. We're deported them. It's funny, if you go down, trip down memory lane, is there was actually, at the height of the American imperialist kind of sentiments in the 1880s, kind of culminating with the Spanish-American war and all that, there was actually a serious effort. I think it was under Grant's presidency to turn the Dominican Republic into a state for the same reason. They want 51st state. They're like, yes, the America needs the island. You know, the Swap Puerto Rico. Why do you think all these things are American territories? And others, at the time it was like coaling, but really what it was is about empire and expansion. And we will have access to their vast resources. And you know, there were actually, there was a huge debate that happened. They said we can either be a republic or we can be an empire. And an empire, people understood, would be more tyrannical. And that what it would mean is that you would become beholden to the capitalist interests and others, you'd be less representative, actually, of the average citizen. I mean, I think, obviously, that's entirely borne out accurately as the American empire has expanded. There's been some pluses. We all get cheap televisions and cheap laptops. But the Venezuela example, I think, is the clearest cut of this mindset of the ease of how these things can go. And again, to the instinct to want to leave the mark. I mean, if you look at the things that Trump is the most obsessed with, from the ballroom to now the reflecting pool, which we had a big argument about yesterday. She's pro-reflecting pool, which is like, I don't even understand. I'm pro-waiting and seeing before rendering my judgment. This man has terrible taste. The reflecting pool is disgusting. Yeah, I agree it's disgusting, but I prefer it filled with duck shit to whatever they're gonna put. Some gilded, which it was, let's be honest, for anybody who's lived here for a long time. It's been gross for a decent period of time. The question is, do you trust Trump to not turn it into a gaudy monstrosity? Look, the forest gump scene, that's what we all strive for in our reflecting pool. That's my reflecting pool, is the forest gump Jenny scene. Now anyways, taking it back from all of that. The whole point is, he's obsessed. This morning, he's posting himself on the $100 bill. Like that's what it's about for Trump, right? It's about the ballroom, it's about the reflecting pool. And okay, most people wouldn't live with that because they thought that, oh, okay, we're gonna close the border, oh, and what else? We're not gonna have crippling inflation in high-gall. Oh, what was that? Oh, right, yeah, so, oops. Now you do have crippling inflation and you have all this bullshit, which is currently happening on top of wanting to make Venezuela the 51st state. Well, just to close the loop on the point that you're making, he has been so frustrated with domestic politics that now he's going to the foreign policy sphere because it feels like easier fixes to make these really grand achievements or even gestures on the foreign policy level that are legacy building, which he is clearly obsessed with doing, you can see it physically here in DC. He's obsessed with legacy building. And then on top of that, he clearly wants his presidency to be defined by this like grand restructuring on the world stage. So that's where he's turned and we're gonna see Saga. I mean, we have a lot to talk about here when it comes to gas prices. We're gonna see how this goes from the next several months, let alone the next several years. Let's get to it. As the war in Iran rages, President Trump announced yesterday he was in favor of suspending the federal gas tax. This is according to the Wall Street Journal, which is basically writing up comments, he told reporters in the Oval Office, we can put the first element up on the screen. Trump said, quote, I'm going to. He said gas prices will, quote, drop like a rock after the war. And when he was asked how long he would consider spending the gas tax for, he said, quote, until it's appropriate, worth noting where AAA has gas prices, the national average here, we can toss up on the screen, $4.50 a gallon. $4.50 a gallon as of today. When you scroll around the map, you see prices in California at $6.15. Michigan, $4.71 Illinois, almost $5 a gallon, $4.97, there's still some states where it's a bit lower, basically nowhere lower than $4 a gallon in most places, much, much higher than $4 a gallon. So you can understand why President Trump would be feeling the pressure to take that federal gas tax and suspend it. Let's toss this Wall Street Journal element up on the screen as well, B3, looking down the barrel at what might be happening in California, just as we discussed, them already having sky high gas prices. The Journal has this piece, think $6 gas is bad? It's about to get even worse in California. Why is that? Well, the state just got its last shipment of Middle Eastern oil soggers. So the pain is about to be felt even, this is the tip of the iceberg, I think is actually probably the best way to put it. It's about to get much, much, much worse around the country, heading into the midterm elections, summer travel season is then gonna give way to fall election pressures. And you're at this point asking to turn the Titanic around when it comes to getting some of these refineries back up to capacity, even if you were to wave a magic wand and the war today, it's going to be a huge, huge problem for the administration. Last thing I'll say is Senator Josh Hawley introduced a bill yesterday that would actually allow President Trump to sign this into law. It's pretty clear he can't do this by executive action. So Republicans now getting on the bandwagon in Congress as well. Yeah, but at the end of the day, we're talking here about 18 cents a gallon. Like that's just what we already have in the Iran war tax. The Iran war tax is what, a buck 50? Something like that. The California example is a very good one. It's something we've been trying to hammer home here because we always say, oh, America is a net energy exporter. Yeah, that's true. But what do we learn is that each individual region of the United States is uniquely vulnerable to the conditions for gas. That's why gas is a very different price in California than here. A lot of people like to talk about how California has a high gas tax. Definitely true. Don't get me wrong. However, one third of California gas comes from the Middle East. Why? Well, they have to import it. It's far away from a lot of the refineries. They don't want refineries in California that you sign your own destiny. They don't want refineries when it builds new refinery in this country since the 1970s. Most of them are being constantly tinkered with and are updated, but brand new ones not happening. If you compare the Chinese refineries to ours, it's not even a question. Granted, they have no environmental regs. They can do whatever they want. So it's definitely kind of complicated. But the point is that 75% of the oil in California comes from somewhere else. Only 25% of it is domestic. A third of it comes from the Middle East. California is actually more reliant on crude oil shipments from Saudi, Iraq, and the UAE than any other state in the nation. Quote, it'll take a month or two for flows to resume. Then you still have all of the catching up to do. And so Iraqi oil actually just came for the first time, I think in a while, to the shores of California. I mean, look at our map and think about how long it's gonna take to get there. So gas prices as of Friday in California are 616 a gallon. Diesel costs about 750. That's a buck 82 more. The state's stockpile of refined products such as jet fuel and diesel are quote, increasingly strained as big Asian fuel suppliers, including South Korea, slow exports to California are all being slowed down from everywhere else. Because remember California, because of all this importation of oil means is not only gonna have the higher diesel price, but all of these other refined products, the things that we use only about 35,000 barrels a day, refined products are due to arrive from South Korea in May. That is down from 100,000 barrels a day in April. And it doesn't help that two of the state's major refineries just closed in the last six months, cutting off a fifth of its fuel making capacity. Even if the straight reopens, its closure has already withheld at least a billion barrels from the global market. And California is getting as little relief as large tangers from the Gulf Coast come in. The Trump administration, remember they did the Jones Act. We've already spent enough time on the Jones Act here on the show, but the reason why I'm going deep into this is that California is a very, very extreme example. Like put B2 up there on the screen, just to show California at 615 a gallon. But let's take some other states with high gas. Illinois, for example, right? Illinois is at 490 a gallon. And in fact, Michigan and Indiana and Ohio all actually have very, very high gas. Now, people would say, why? Well, what was I reading about? Up a refinery that happens to produce the oil for those three states, had a problem at accident or something like that. And so that means that you have to take the oil offline, which means it has to come from elsewhere, by rail, by truck, whatever. And then same in the Northeast corridor. So, Pennsylvania is at 466 a gallon. And in fact, you have pretty high gas, which is color there in red, pretty much all along the Estella corridor. Even in the states where you have all these refineries and it doesn't have to travel that far, let's say Oklahoma, you've got $3.94 and even Texas. The petroleum state is at 4 bucks a gallon. What this highlights is two things. The global commodity of oil, and two is just the sheer complexity of moving oil, all and gas, all across the United States. And why, one of the things, it's a very interesting story, is one of the biggest trading firms in the oil markets is now betting that Trump will do an export ban. And what he's betting on is that, just to explain the exact mechanism, he is betting on the spread between West Texas oil futures and Brent crude futures. The only way that would happen, even more so, is if we had an oil export ban. And this seems, again, like a clean talking point. Yeah, well, just no more oil. But that doesn't account for California getting a third of its oil from the Middle East. So where's the rest of it gonna come from? Are their refineries even set up to refine oil? Let's say from Venezuela or from Texas or from anywhere else in the United States. And if they are, how can we even get the oil over? These are huge logistical problems to keep everybody on the road. And in the long run, it would actually create individual shortages, probably like in California or elsewhere. It might immediately actually lower the price here, and in a month, maybe three, you would begin to see problems. In six months, you're just gonna straight up, a shortage. And also, it would actually dry up one of Trump's biggest talking points, which is we're making so much money off of this, which is technically true if you are in Texas or if you are an oil company who are making money hands over fist. So yeah, if you're in Midland or if you're a Houston strip club owner, you're doing great. Or a Ford F-150 dealer in Midland. This is, it's money-free time. If you're Billy Bob Thornton in the Terry Sheridan universe. Actually met a fan of ours, who's a literal landman. She was a woman though, it was interesting. So she was telling me about her landman. I love it. I was like, wow, okay. So apparently it's a real thing, I had no idea. But what you can actually see inside of this is just the intricate nature in which all of this is just falling apart. Like the gas tax, the fact that we already haven't done it is nuts in my opinion because 18 cents a gallon. Can I say? Yeah, go ahead. Yes, so I just looked up the federal revenue from the federal gas tax every year. About $23 billion a year according to Fox. How much have we spent on the Iran war so far? Oh, more than that. The Pentagon's estimate, which is low balling, is $25 billion. Right, so it's like one on one, right? Just the gas tax is paid. But it's such a good example of what we prioritize and what we do not prioritize. And yes, we do need money to maintain federal highways and such, but we also don't need to start a war with Iran. Yes. Give me a fucking break. I'm with you, all right. And yeah, it drives me nuts. Let's put B4 up there on the screen, like for example, this was what I was talking about in our earlier block, is how the Iran war is draining the world's oil buffer at an unprecedented pace. And they say global oil stockpiles have dropped by about 4.8 billion barrels a day between March 1st and April 25th. Far exceeding the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown. Crude accounts for almost 60% of the decline and refined fuels of the rest. Crucially, the system actually does require a minimal amount of oil. And I think we've explained this before, where it's not that it's like going to zero is so catastrophic for a refinery and others, that you need a minimal amount of oil. Like it's actually apparently better for a refinery to go from 100 to 10% than from 10 to zero. Because when you go to zero, again, I don't fully understand all of it, but it's just bad things happen. You're not really supposed to turn it off. And if you do, it takes forever to turn it back on. So the minimal amount of oil that you need to maintain, like the current system, we're approaching that within the next six months to a year. Now, I realize it's like, oh, well, that's far away. Keep in mind, it's May 12th. War began on February 28th. The war began when it was cold. Now it's not cold. Think about it that way. Almost full season. Like we're going into summer. So it's like, it's been a while actually, since the war started. So is it that inconceivable that you were to see it in three months from now? Not really, actually, considering the way that everything has gone on. So three more months of this, which again, I don't think really is out of the question. Considering the on again, off again, on again, that the administration has walked us into, I don't know, I don't see a way out of $6 a gallon. I just don't. I don't think you're wrong. And I mean, obviously I support like more domestic production on this front. And if it forces that, I think, you know, maybe there's a six silver lining to all of this, but I don't think that's actually what's happening at all. Let's put this fortune headline on the screen. This is B5. Another huge part of this, the headline here is, Iran Wars draining words, world's oil buffer at an unprecedented pace. And then we can move on also to the Financial Times headline. This is B5. Fuel, munitions and food. Trump's Iran War rips across U.S. economy. This is not just about gas. Not just about gas. It is about prices that are going to increase across the board because of how fully integrated into every product, plastics, for example, that gas is. And you're gonna have, obviously, what the Biden administration dubbed greedflation. No question about it. Already seeing it across the economy as well. So it is just a geopolitical mess. You don't need us to tell you that, but when you look at some of these, you just pull at some of these threads. The extent of it becomes obvious. I mean, the world oil reserves here, Sagar, that is. Like you said, there's just his path to climbing out of this before the midterms, but at all. Oh, kiss that. Good luck. It doesn't even really matter. What you pointed to the Financial Times story, it really is worth going through some of it. The direct price from the government is 25 billion. So what's the real number? 50, probably? Maybe 60, something like that. And then if you start to go into all of the actual costs of the munitions, which, you know, if anybody watching the show, we've gone through that ad nauseam. Mark Kelly recently just said the quiet part out loud and the Pentagon wants to prosecute him. Cause he was like, hey, it turns out that we're like critically low. I mean, you don't need to classify briefing to learn that. You could just look at his spreadsheet. It's very obvious. But really what we're all seeing inside of it is from the fuel export problems, already keeping interest rates and all of that high. Then the crazy part about it too, is I think it's consumer sentiment at an all time low. We're going to talk about that a little bit with Derek. You've got AI kind of holding up the stock market. You've basically got healthcare holding up the rest of the jobs market. But the actual consumer experience of the average American is just miserable, miserable. On a day to day basis. And gas, I think it was already bad, you know, going into this, not just because of tariffs, but largely as a result, is tariffs plus really of like the continuation of a lot of these economic forces. And I think this just really put, you know, it put like lit that feeling on fire. Yes. Much like Biden, you know, things were already a problem for Biden and the Ukraine war happened. It was just eliminated. No, that's a really good point about the tariffs too, because the question of whether or not it's, there's certainty over investing in the United States for the future, manufacturing, business and the like, exports, that was already precarious. And there were a lot of countries, I mean, the BRICS meeting is what in September. So the realignment of some of these really big geopolitical relationships is happening right now in a sense that the Iran war thrusts some of this over the edge, right? Like it was already in motion starting to gel. And then the Iran war just puts that in a hyper drive. So it's really, I mean, for Trump to leave office with a genuine sense of having redrawn the world for the interest of America first, whatever that was like before the Iran war has become, you know, the odds have become infinitesimally small after. Can I give you a prediction for China? Let's do it. Trump, there's already a report out there. Trump is considering a $1 trillion investment package from China. Here's what I predict. Do you see- We will have Chinese EVs in this country in the next five years. That's a great prediction. Did you see the Laura Ingram reaction to that right away and said like catastrophic mistake on the brain? It's gonna happen. It's over. He loves it. He loves it. It's not that he loves it. It's the stars aligned for China. So already- But he does love it too. No, of course he does. But what I'm saying is they're waiting, they know he loves investment. They're gonna take the Toyota deal, which is you can build here, but you have to build in America. They're gonna wave across all the IP things and within five years, there will be BYD cars on the road in the US. That's my prediction. And they will be built, they'll almost certainly be built here, but that is the deal that they're gonna strike with Trump because he loves the investment and they're gonna pledge all of this stuff. What they're good for the money with the largest consumer market in the world, that's my prediction. He's gonna then have to bomb Karg Island to keep the neocons happy because they're going to be so pissed off. No, they'll stay quiet. All they care about is Israel. They don't actually care about China. Kinda how it's always been. All right, UFOs, let's get to it. Turning now to UFOs, my favorite subject. A lot of people have thought about this with consternation. Is this a distraction from the government? So let's get this out of the way. Almost certainly, it certainly is. Now, does that mean that some of the information released by the administration isn't interesting? No, it doesn't. Now, is anything earth-shattering? Let me just say at the top, absolutely not. It's not like we've gotten absolute confirmation of nothing. However, as usual with government files, Emily, the way that I like to look at it, is what they choose to show you is probably less important than what they chose not to show you. And what they have chosen to show us is a few new things. And with this aura of transparency, a lot of it is recycled video and or things that anybody's been in the UFO, the interest for quite some time, very little in this will shock you. But nonetheless, what we have learned from it so far is that in terms of the transparency that's promised, it basically confirms what a lot of us had already thought about the subject, which is, yeah, are there some videos and others in US possession which you're shocking? Absolutely, certainly. We'll show you some of those. However, they're not like the best videos. But the real stuff, if it exists, which I support your right to believe, if it doesn't, none of that is really in government possession. And if it is in government possession, it's either hyper-compartmentalized or spread out amongst defense contractors. It's set up in such a way where it can't even make its way to the type of people who are trying to do disclosure. And so to give you a general reaction and your read of these files, I'll turn to Dave Grush, one of the whistleblowers here who gave an interview to Fox News. And he's basically saying that the administration is being blocked, and this is according to his own information, by these elements within the government, which may have some insight into these files from any sort of release. Let's take a listen. What you're saying is we are on the cusp of getting a lot more details that deal with actual alien beings, however you're gonna describe them. That's certainly up to the president's team, and I certainly support them, but it has come to my attention, actually, recently as of today. There are some actors within certain intelligence agencies to include DIA and CIA specifically that are actually blocking some of the president's presidential-appointed team and getting access and getting control on some of these historical records. So I really expect the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, Bradley Hansel, to take care of that as some of that's under his cognizance, especially on the national program side, which is directly under his organization to reveal some of the historical National Security Council records on this. Right, so what Grush is saying there is that the DIA and the CIA are blocking some of the team from getting access and getting control. And this is why this stuff really matters, because you can only declassify what you have access to. And remember, this has already happened with Epstein. Oh, we found 89 million files. That's just a case. Something going on since 2019. Now imagine a subject from 1947, possibly, even earlier, that you continue to look at. And I tend to look, not just at Dave, but at many of the congressmen who have much more visibility into this subject than you or I from Tim Birchit and or even some of these Democrats, like or Eric Burleson, or, you know, who am I thinking of? Jared Moskowitz, like all of them continue to just make comments where they're like, yeah, it's not really everything that's been shown. Let's put C2 and let's take a listen to that of a Democratic congressman, Subramanian, talking about the UFO files. Let's take a listen. No, I don't think so. I'm underwhelmed by the release, honestly. Given things that I've heard and things that I've seen, I'd like more to be released. The American people deserve to know what we do have and any sort of evidence of anything we've seen. So he's on the oversight committee and really what they're saying is be either the things that they've heard or the things that they've seen, either in a classified setting or been testified to from witnesses, we just know that this is not the full breadth of it. Now, there's some interesting stuff in there. We'll get to it. You know, a lot of, this is always a problem with this subject is that the stuff that's really flashy attracts all the attention, which I understand. I get it, you know, as somebody who's interested, but it's really about the nitty gritty whenever it comes to the US military videos, their own internal assessments, their knowledge and or lack of knowledge, let's say on certain things. And then the most important thing is when they have a video of something and go, we have no idea what it is. And then what usually happens in that no idea what it is, is it just gets buried. They're like, oh, we're on deployment. We don't want to deal with it. But that's the interesting thing, right? And that's what a lot of these, you know, these internal like Arrow and all these other departments were set up to fine. And every time they inevitably come out and be like, oh, there's basically nothing to see here. Don't worry about it. There's never been any real effort. Trump allegedly is trying to get here to the bottom of it. But the unfortunate thing is I think they see it as like a fun thing, as opposed to a very serious endeavor. Now that doesn't mean necessarily that nothing serious won't come out, but I'm personally a little bit skeptical into the terms that it's gone down so far. And especially because the way it was received initially is people were like, wow, like the Apollo astronauts saw aliens. It's like, guys, that's not what happened, right? Like what happened is they saw some shapes. And by the way, all of this has been reported now for years. Like we literally know all of this from the photos, from the testimony of the astronauts and others. I'm glad it's reigniting discussion, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's any sort of smoking gun. So go ahead. Well, I was just, the feeding frenzy around this is becoming so, it's made it so much less serious and accessible because this is obviously now a tool of theatrical transparency because we're in an era where institutional trust is really low. And so politicians have decided that it will make them look really good to kind of flex their muscles of disclosure. But nobody, that's the thing with disclosure. Nobody knows if you're actually fully disclosing anything. And so when you see some of these establishment type politicians starting to enter the discussion, when you start seeing, you know, really establishment friendly scientists enter the discussion. When you see whistleblowers enter the discussion and then you have to compare and contrast all of these different perspectives. One person trashing the other person, this person trashing, it just becomes impossible to disentangle what is limited hangout type information, what is real, are things real, but also limited hangouts. Like this is the most, this last several days, I think have been some of the most frustrating because it's a feeding frenzy. There are a lot of new people trying to like pick at things who haven't been deep in the space like you have for many years. And it's just all so impossible now. It's always been hard. But now it's gotten to the point where it's actually like, probably the government's plan, it's almost impossible to really sort the wheat from the chaff. I totally, very well said. So we picked some of these videos which are actually interesting nonetheless. Let's put them up here on the screen. We have some of them, they're all clearly labeled. Actually, this one's the most interesting one. IndoPaycom submitted a report of a UAP consisting of one minute and 39 seconds of video from an infrared sensor aboard a US military platform in 2024. You can actually see it right there in front of your screen just flying there among windmills. I haven't seen somebody be able to geolocate it just yet, but this is consistent with some of the videos that we've seen things that are flying just over the water at a rate of speed, which we don't exactly know how it's moving, no visible forms of propulsion. Now I'm gonna give the caveat that in many of these cases, what ends up happening is it's a camera flare or it's some sort of like some sort of technical glitch, let's say within the system. That's why you need rigorous review of all of these things and you don't just put it to the side. But this was an interesting video, definitely, for sure. Let's go to the next one, shall we? So what we have here is a report of a UAP consisting of nine seconds of video from an infrared sensor, again, aboard a US military platform in 2024. What is it? I mean, it's a bit hard to say, right? We can't exactly see, it's kind of blurry from everything that we're able to know. I mean, at first glance, it might look like almost like the space shuttle or something like that. It could be a blimp, right? But I don't think so, just because of some of the things that have been ruled out now in the past, and especially that's usually, you're very able to identify. However, I should, again, I always give the caveat with these things, sometimes it's a weather balloon, but now that's also been used as an excuse at Roswell. Let's go to the next one, shall we? Okay, here we have Northcom submitted a report here of a UAP consisting of 21 seconds of video from an infrared sensor aboard a US military platform, again, in 2024. You know why these are interesting to me? It is the windmill video, and others is we have had so many reports over the years now about UAPs with no visible means of propulsion that can move in all of these different ways, and it's usually over bodies of water, and it's also, again, this is not, I know this sounds crazy, but what the testimony that comes from it are the ability to move both underwater and over it, right? And so you actually have some reports, right, of things going into the ocean or out of the ocean. So the fact is that you actually were able to see some of these things very, very high over the water, and it's in a small type of, or at least small movement. And this is from 2024. All of these were from 2024. That's actually what kind of made it interesting. I will say there's several videos which are coming out in a new documentary by Jeremy Corbell. He's got eight out of 24 videos, which members of Congress want to be released. So those videos will all be able to see in a documentary. And again, many of these are leaked or provided to them, which they heavily scrutinize, and they do so to get it out because of things like this, where they don't want it to be covered up. Many others continue to say that there are better videos inside of the Department of Defense, which haven't been released or the CIA in some places. It's what Avi Lo said. I've heard about this for years. At a certain point, I'm not gonna lie, you're getting frustrated that they're not being released. But so far, I mean, I wouldn't compare this to the Epstein release. I wouldn't compare it to, actually, let's take the Epstein one as a good example. Why did we ultimately get what we got with Epstein, which is not everything? Yes. It was a huge movement behind Rokana and Thomas Massey to have a bill that was signed by Congress. Massey made a good point in his interview with Tucker Carlson, is that in the long run, this bill survives all administrations. It's not just a resolution. So even if this current administration isn't doing what it's supposed to do, in the future, future administrations still have to comply with the bill. Well, it's also, and he told Ryan and me here, that it's prosecutable. Right, exactly. So they added that in the bill, which I think went really under the media's radar. That was part of, I mean, people were upset about the bill because it had national security exemptions and the like. And so we were talking to Massey about it. And he said, well, if there's another administration that comes in and is doggedly anti-Trump, and they find evidence that some of what Pam Bondi did not release was not national security, was not relevant to national security, then guess what? You're on the hook still. Yeah, I think it is, look, I just think that that's good evidence. And there's a reason that almost every bill like that hasn't moved through Congress. So to my UFO friends, what I would say is, we don't rely on executive orders. We don't rely on any of that. If you really want to see something happen, then you're going to need a bill. And by the way, don't forget the JFK Records Act was signed in what, 1990? Yeah, I was going to say, even a bill. Even a bill isn't necessarily going to get you everything that you need. It's going to be a long slog, all right? And so look, we got something that's interesting, but did it prove, you know, any, did it prove really anything? Not really, we got a few interesting videos out of it. And you know, that's good, but I'm not, I'm going to treat it with some of the skepticism I think it deserves. I just want to say that video is from 2024, as we were just talking about those videos. JFK, 1963, we heard up until what? The Biden administration, actually early Trump in minute, Trump 2.0, if I'm remembering correctly, that people alive could be harmed by the release of the JFK files. And so any bill that you get is going to have national security exemptions. And you were going to hear the same damn thing for the next 100 years about people who were alive or 80 years, people who were alive in 2024, who could theoretically be harmed by releases of things from 2024, let alone 1947. I'm sure they still have some excuse why things from 1947 can't be released because of people who are impacted, affected potentially. So yeah, I mean, it's just, you'll always be putting together the pieces of a puzzle without knowing what the picture in the puzzle looks like. Right? Like you don't have the box. And so you don't know when the puzzle is complete. You don't know what the picture is. You're just assembling all the different pieces or trying to, and some of them are two different puzzle. Some of them are fake pieces. Yeah, some of them are decoy pieces, very well said. 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