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It's not a storm or a current you can see from the surface, but a slow, powerful builder of heat spanning thousands of kilometres. And it's been playing a dangerous game of hide and seek. Now, out there for all to witness, the Pacific Ocean is undergoing a violent flip. The latest information suggests we are on the precipice of a super El Nino, possibly the strongest El Nino event in a hundred and forty years. A very rare high intensity episode that would propel global temperatures into uncharted territory. This isn't a seasonal shift, it's a global reorganisation of energy. According to the latest data, there is now a 98% chance of El Nino emerging by August and by September 2026. The rise of a full-blown super El Nino is now almost inevitable. This kind of El Nino would see intensified heat waves, floods, droughts and shifts in monsoon and hurricane patterns all around the world. Indeed, could a 2026 super El Nino push our climate past the point of no return? I'm James Shewitt and you're watching Astrum Earth. Join me today as we look at the mechanics of this climate engine. We'll discuss why 2026 is becoming the perfect storm for a record-breaking event. And we'll look at what a planet already pushed to the brink by climate change does when its largest natural cooling mechanism is replaced by a furnace. I didn't expect to be making this video quite as quickly as I am, to be honest with you. Let me take you back a few months to a video I made about the weak El Nino we had in 2025 that went into 2026. In fact, it was so weak we suggested in that video that a Pacific flip was possible. A kind of climate whiplash where after months of El Nino's coal pattern, the Pacific would be primed to swing hot and bring on as a monster of an El Nino. When I made that video, the chances of that happening were quite low and we didn't know how hot things might get if indeed they were at all. But as it turns out, that prediction was bang on and it's coming true, unfortunately, right in front of our eyes. Things are escalating pretty quickly. So here's a quick recap if you missed that video. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a term used to describe a cycle of variations in the Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures and air pressure near the equator. Normally, trade winds drive warm surface water from near South America, the eastern Pacific, towards Asia. As that warm water moves away from South America, cold water rises to replace it in a process called upwelling. This situation is called ENSO neutral. Now if those trade winds are weaker than usual, this upwelling effect lessens, resulting in a warmer patch in the eastern Pacific Ocean. If those sea surface temperatures rise by more than half a degree Celsius above average, then that is an El Nino. Conversely, when trade winds are stronger, ocean temperatures dip below average and we see a La Nina develop, where those temperatures are more than half a degree Celsius lower than average. This cycle lasts between 9 and 12 months and repeats every 2 to 7 years. And at the time of recording, we're in an ENSO neutral state, at least according to NOAA. But not for much longer. During an El Nino, eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures usually do reach around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, shifting tropical convection currents and jet streams. This typically brings wetter winters to California and some regions in South America, and dry conditions to Australia, Indonesia and Southern Africa. In fact, one strange quirk of El Nino is that it tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes. What it does is increase upper level winds across the tropical Atlantic. That then creates wind shear that pulls apart tropical storm systems before they can develop into the hurricanes. But unfortunately, it's bad news elsewhere because it enhances the potential for Pacific storms. That's due to an increase in energy in the ocean, because warm surface water fuels the development of tropical storms, which turn into cyclones. It also generally raises global temperatures by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius above trend, often producing the warmest years on record if they coincide with ongoing warming. Now I should point out at this point that this is not a new concept, nor is having an El Nino a product of climate change. It's a natural part of our planet, a heartbeat that's been thumping for at least 10,000 years. I mean, we have evidence of Enzo's chemical fingerprints in ancient coral fossils and sediment cores stretching back long before the first steam engine was even built. But this year feels different. Something sinister is brewing out there, and it's starting to look very much like we're heading for a Super El Nino. Now some housekeeping here on what actually constitutes a Super El Nino, because I'll be honest with you if you're asking scientists that term doesn't actually exist, but it does make for a good media headline and title on this thumbnail. Noah, who were the people right on the forefront of this stuff, monitored El Nino with a measure called the Oceanic Nino Index, or ONI. It's basically a three month running mean of sea surface temperature relative to a 30 year base. So El Nino is declared, as we said, when that ONI goes above 0.5 degrees Celsius for five or more overlapping seasons. And just to make things a bit more complicated, Noah recently changed to a new kind of measuring index called the Relative ONI Index to account for increased background warming, which it didn't previously. So within this new way of measuring how strong an El Nino actually is, they class a weak one as between 0.5 and 1 degrees Celsius. A moderate one would be between 1 and 1.5 degrees Celsius, and a strong El Nino is 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. So therefore with a bit of creative license, a Super El Nino would be somewhere 2 degrees Celsius above average or more. And despite not having a proper term for it, that has happened before. In fact it's happened four times since Noah started these measurements, in 1982, 1991, 1997 and most recently in 2015. In every single case, each relative ONI rating was more than 2 degrees Celsius, and in November 2015, the index was a whopping 2.4 degrees Celsius. That's more than strong. That rating was looking for a foam boot to take off its glasses and don a superhero cape with. In all seriousness though, these giant events have globe spanning consequences. The 2015 El Nino coincided with severe drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and an extraordinary Central Pacific hurricane season, all combining to produce record global warmth. More than 60 million people were affected, with extreme food insecurity primarily across Africa, Central America and the Pacific. It triggered the most devastating global coral bleaching event in history, and the impacts weren't just felt environmentally. 3.9 trillion dollars was wiped from the global economy in the following three years, due to the lost agricultural productivity and infrastructure damages. Let's take a quick pause right there because I know that all the stuff we've just talked about can be quite overwhelming and can leave you feeling pretty helpless. There is something you can do right now as you watch this video that actually makes a difference. Meet Planet Wild. They're like crowdfunding but for nature. Each month their community of over 20,000 members, including myself by the way, funds a mission to restore nature around the world. Then they document it with a YouTube video so we can see the impact of our contributions in real time. This makes me feel hopeful because we can actually see the impact on the ground. Recently they contributed to the world's biggest wildlife corridor. By helping build these unique wildlife crossings, honestly their work is incredible. I love these guys so much, I wanted to share it with you as well. So the first 100 people to sign up using my code Astrum6 will get their first month paid for by me. Yeah, just scan the QR code on the screen right now or click the link in the video description. After that you can give whatever amount feels right to you and you can also cancel it anytime. You'll immediately have an impact and see the results in less than 30 days. If you want to see them in action and see what they do check out their wildlife corridor mission with the link in the description as we head back to Super El Nino. So is history about to repeat itself again? As of early 2026 the tropical Pacific returned to an end-so-neutral state after that week when El Nino we spoke about. But don't be fooled because that's just on the surface. It's what's brewing below that's starting to ring alarm bells. NOAA reports that ocean subsurface heat content has been climbing for months and is now well above normal. In March to April 2026 meteorologists observed bursts of westerly winds driving warm water eastward, a classic precursor to El Nino. Usually Pacific trade winds are easterly, holding warm water in the west, but those winds are faltering. As they weaken a series of Kelvin waves, massive pulses of warm water are travelling thousands of miles across the ocean. And when they hit the South American coast they sort of uncork the heat and suddenly you've got all this energy just sat there waiting to be unleashed. In fact NASA have just caught one of these Kelvin waves in action with the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite. You can clearly see it cross the Pacific Ocean and hit the South American coast. But here's the catch because on top of the natural cycle happening this time we're layering a natural surge onto a planet that's already spent 12 consecutive months above the 1.5 degree warming threshold. 2024 was the hottest year on record and it occurred during an end-so-neutral year. There was no extra heating boost from El Nino. So before we even add in a naturally occurring event that increases temperatures, we're already working with a much higher baseline and that's a problem. It's a bit like a loaded spring. That heat hasn't fully reached the surface yet, but when it does it can rapidly trigger El Nino conditions. The scary thing is that exact same pattern showed up before the 1997 and 2015 Super El Ninos 2. So the big question is then, how big is this one going to be? Well for starters, NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre has placed the odds of El Nino emerging by July at 82% with a 37% chance of a very strong El Nino by winter 2026. The UK and European estimates are a little more aggressive. Met Office data here in the UK shows 2 degrees Celsius anomalies by September 2026 and the ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast shows there is a chance of temperature anomalies exceeding 3 degrees before October, taking us well into super territory. Indeed, on the other side of the scale to NOAA, according to the ECMWF, the odds of a super El Nino by July have already climbed beyond 50% and as we approach winter, its emergence appears inevitable. Just a quick word of caution here when it comes to data and modelling. I know you know this but I just have to sort of say it. Forecasters do note that models tend to overshoot El Nino strength in the spring and the outcome actually depends on whether those westerly winds continue what they're doing but because they're doing it right now, that's where these numbers come from. However you choose to interpret those numbers is up to you but what I think we can deduce for certain is that the environment is primed for a strong event. So if we do end up with the fabled super El Nino, well what does that mean for us? The short answer is amplified extremes. All the usual El Nino effects would be supercharged. It'd be like driving around in your car, playing your music with your bass turned up to maximum. The first and perhaps most obvious thing we've already touched on, there would be a record-breaking global heat spike. Each El Nino year brings hotter conditions globally and even without the help of all the extra greenhouse gas emissions, we'd usually expect somewhere in the region of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees worth of increase. But for a super El Nino? Well that could put temperatures in 2026, 2027 to unprecedented heights. The hottest year is on record, exceeding 1.7 even 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels. In the most extreme scenarios, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific region approach a stark 3.8 degrees Celsius by the year end. And when you consider that the IPCC wanted to limit warming to just 1.5 degrees, you start to see just how extreme this really is. And it's not just the temperatures we should be worrying about either. There would be a series of extreme precipitation patterns in every corner of the planet. A super El Nino would bring torrential rains to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. But inland, the Amazon rainforest would face a thermal stress test. By combining intense drought with record-breaking temperatures, trees would be pushed beyond their tolerance limits. Previous super El Ninos have seen the Amazon switch from a carbon sink to a carbon source as drought kills off massive sways of the canopy. In 2026, with the baseline temperature already higher, the risk of megafires in the world's lungs would be at an all-time high. In North America, the jet stream is expected to split, so the US, Southwest and California would get a sort of Godzilla winter with heavy snowpack and torrential rains. This may help relieve reservoirs in the short term, but it brings the immediate threat of atmospheric rivers, long plumes of water vapor coming in from the tropics. These events can trigger catastrophic landslides and cause localized flooding. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest would experience unusually hot and dry conditions. On the other side of the world, in Australia, the news is also sobering. The Bureau of Meteorology has already issued a below-average rainfall forecast for the eastern and southwestern parts of the country, and it's not just the lack of rain. Farmers in New South Wales are facing a perfect storm. They're still recovering from the massive floods of previous years, but now they could be hit by a triad of pressures, intensifying drought, extreme bushfire risk and a global spike in fertilizer and fuel costs all thrown into one. As we touched on earlier as well, El Nino does something strange to traditional hurricane patterns. Generally, it tends to tilt the odds of Pacific cyclones and reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes. In 2015, for example, during the strongest El Nino we've ever seen so far, the Central Pacific had an unusually active cyclone season. In total, there were 16, including three simultaneous category four storms. It was crazy. So, a 2026 Super El Nino would likely mean, yeah, a quieter Atlantic season, which is good news for the US East Coast, but terrible news for eastern Pacific cyclones that affect Mexico, Hawaii and beyond. And you guessed it, there's more. Historically, El Ninos have caused fish declines and even penguin die-offs in the Galapagos due to changes in ocean currents. A Super El Nino would only magnify these biological stresses. And all of that before we've even gotten to the thing that keeps us alive, food. I mean, even now, climate analysts are already warning that a strong El Nino could significantly strain food supplies. The India Meteorological Department has pegged the 2026 monsoon at just 92% of its long period average, the lowest in nearly 30 years. And that has a direct threat to the cariff crops, the staples, things like rice, cotton and soybeans that literally feed billions of people. If the rains fail in August and September, we aren't just looking at dry fields. We're looking at food inflation that could exceed 4.5%, destabilizing the rural economy for the entire subcontinent. And there's another twist in this too. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit just released an article noting that an El Nino-driven weather shock on top of war-related fertilizer and fuel disruptions could drive up both prices and inflation. In short, harvests in those key farming regions, so rice and Asia, coffee and Africa, maize in Latin America, would majorly suffer, amplifying hunger and economic stress not just locally, but across the entire planet. Analysis by the United Nations World Food Programme warned that the number of food insecure people across the globe could reach levels last seen at the start of the Russian-Ukraine invasion in 2022, impacting up to 318 million people across the globe who are already food insecure. Yeah, it's a lot, isn't it? Sorry for that tirade of information. If you aren't looking for a scrap of good news, come to Europe. Over here where I am in the UK and into mainland Europe, El Nino's influence is more indirect. Some studies suggest El Nino's winters tend to be milder and wetter in northern Europe, but their signal is pretty weak, and the summit impacts are even less predictable. If you look back at some of the developing El Nino years in 1997 and 2015 and even 2023, they all featured at least some hot spells but no simple pattern or something that unified them in any way. But of course, thanks to our good old friend Global Warming, any El Nino effect might actually be quite hard to disentangle from the ongoing trend of record some heat in Europe anyway. All of that stuff we've just talked about doesn't just have a human cost, there is also quite a large financial one. In 2023, researchers from Dartmouth University estimated the average El Nino saps about $3.4 trillion from the global economy, that's because of destroying crops, preventing the flow of goods and services, all that kind of stuff. That's just the estimate for an average El Nino, so a super El Nino would be far more devastating. None of that makes for great reading at all, does it really? There's nothing remotely super about any of this for us at all, which does sort of beg the question, why is this happening in the first place? Well, you might assume it's because of Global Warming, which is sort of what I think as well. But bear with me here, because this sounds like a bit of a cop-out, but scientists are actually continuing to study how Global Warming affects the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, and the truth they say isn't clear cut. Look, as I've alluded to in this video, El Nino isn't new, nor is it particularly special. It used to be like that uncle you saw at family events, every couple of years he sort of said something weird, then he never saw him again until the next event. But this time something is clearly different. The UN's warned that Earth's climate is further out of balance right now than at any other time in recorded history, so how can both things be true? I mean, based on that, good ol' Uncle Enzo would've rocked up to the party at some point anyway, right? Well, yeah, but today's ocean is warmer than decades past. The WMO notes that 2015-2025 ocean temperatures were the hottest 11-year span on record, with Earth gaining heat faster than ever. More than 90% of the Earth's extra energy also heats the oceans, and according to the WMO, the heat stored in the upper 2km of global oceans reached a new high in 2025. Over the last two decades, it's been warming more than twice as quickly as it was during the late 20th century. Add into that a series of late winter-westerly windbursts that have injected heat eastward, pumping up the tropical Pacific's heat content even more, and the stage is set for a potentially very strong or even super event. If or indeed when that happens, it will escalate into a super El Nino, the likes of which we've only seen a few times in history, and that will supercharge global warming and extremes around the planet. NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre updates their Enzo predictions once a month, so maybe by the time you're watching this we'll have more information. We may even be in the midst of a super El Nino. But what we do know is that super El Ninos have happened before, and they will likely happen again. And whatever happens, it's going to be a wild, odd ride watching this one play out. If you enjoyed this video or learned something new today, please hit subscribe. We're still a new channel, it's only been one year, and we're on the road to 400,000 subscribers, so subscribing and helping us out is one of the best things you can do for the channel to help us keep making content like this. Thank you so much, and I'll see you in the next one.
