Vital Dawn Podcast for Wednesday April 22

Welcome to the Vital Dome Podcast for Wednesday, April 22nd. U.S. equity futures are rallying so far this morning. S&P futures are up 43 points. It's about 60 basis points. Dow futures are up 250 points. That's about 50 basis points. NASDAQ futures are up 210 points. That's about 80 basis points. Russell futures are up about 25 points, which is about 90 basis points. In Europe, major industries are about flat overall. you're seeing underperformance in europe and staples banks retail luxury healthcare and telecom you're seeing outperformance in utilities energy real estate tech chemicals and basic resources and then turn to asia the price action was mixed the nikai rose 40 basis points hangzang fell about 1.2 percent janeic comp ticked up 50 basis points taiwan was up about 75 basis points korea climbed about 50 basis points australia and india both uh finished in the red So the big macro news came right after the U.S. closed yesterday. You had Trump come out and essentially indefinitely suspend or extend this ceasefire that was due to lapse tonight. It seems like the two sides are still not necessarily talking although a variety of reports suggest that they have significantly narrowed their differences So there is very much a deal to be struck It an issue of kind of I think there's extreme distrust on both sides. I think Iran is certainly very divided at the moment. You have various factions fighting over who's going to take the lead in the negotiations. You know, the ongoing blockade is a source of tension as well. The blockade, incidentally, could also create the risk of kind of unexpected escalation. So Iran fired on two commercial ships overnight. You know, the U.S. is blocking Iranian ships. Iran is blocking everyone else's ships. And so that creates the risk of some type of an unexpected escalation. But it definitely seems like, and this has been the case for the last several weeks, Trump has only very bad options in terms of militarily escalating, which is why he has not. But as can be seen, it's very difficult for him to exit completely. And the status quo also is really not tenable. Having Hormuz completely shut for an extended period of time is obviously going to wreak havoc on global supply chain. It's going to push up inflation, et cetera, et cetera. So So you know my view is still that it very unlikely there be military escalation for all the reasons I been talking about And again based on reporting it seems like a lot of the big differences have been narrowed on all the kind of the main points of contention about nuclear program etc So I suspect you're going to see a meeting take place in Pakistan. Perhaps the U.S. lifts the blockade for a very, very brief period of time, which is something Iran has been demanding. Iran, one of the reasons Iran didn't show up in Pakistan is because of the blockade. They wanted the blockade lifted. So perhaps there could be some type of a compromise on that front. So that's Iran. Away from Iran, the other big news is on earnings. And in general, I think the Q1 earnings season has been very encouraging. Most companies are reporting upside in the quarter. Everyone's acknowledging the risks and the potential impact from what's happening in the Middle East. But for the most part, guidance is being left unchanged. In fact, guidance is being increased in some instances. You have had certain companies, especially ones that are really at the epicenter, that are really exposed to oil, like travel companies, are certainly experiencing huge cost headwinds. But for the most part, I've found the Q1 season to be quite encouraging. It's still very much in its infancy. There's still a ton to come. Next week is extremely busy. But so far, it's been good. And I would say between the US reports last night and the European reports this morning in general skewing towards a positive end of the spectrum And I have details in the piece There are a lot of earnings out So take a look at the full Vital Dawn which you can find on the website at vitalknowledge for all the details on earnings. Other than that, not much else to talk about. You know, it is interesting. U.S. equity futures are definitely responding to Trump's decision to suspend the ceasefire or push it out indefinitely. But oil is flat up this morning. And as I said, Asia was mixed and Europe is essentially unchanged overall. So you are not seeing kind of confirmation in those other asset classes. Looking on the calendar for today, in terms of scheduled news, it's going to be all about earnings before the open in the US. Boeing, AT&T, T Electronics, Vertiv are probably the main highlights after the european close we'll get s laurel exotica and l'oreal there is a big google cloud conference that kicks off today there is a keynote at noon and then after the close we have earnings from ibm lamb research southwest airlines las vegas sands service now tesla text instruments those would be the big highlights and then i'm sure we'll see a lot of a lot of news about Iran throughout today. And that is everything for today, Wednesday, April 22nd. Thank you for listening.