The Worst Way to Spend $200 Billion

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Try Ionos, your digital partner at Ionos.co.uk. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm John Faffer. I'm Dan Faffer. On today's show, we're going to talk about how the war in Iran is turning into a global economic crisis, why the Pentagon thinks it'll cost us at least another $200 billion, and whether Congress will actually approve that funding. The senior Trump official who just resigned over the war, the fight over confirming Trump's next Homeland Security Secretary that involves an actual physical fight, the other actual physical fight that will take place on the White House lawn this summer, Apex Role in this week's Democratic primaries in Illinois, and then the winner of one of those primaries talks to Dan, Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, who's on her way to becoming the next Democratic Senator from the state of Illinois. Also, please consider becoming a subscriber if you haven't already, so that you don't miss out on any crooked content. 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All right, let's dive in. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu started a war in Iran that has now engulfed the Middle East and triggered a global energy crisis that's quickly becoming a global economic crisis. On Wednesday, Israel bombed the largest natural gas reserve in the world, which Iran shares with Qatar. Iran then retaliated with attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including a hit on a Qatari natural gas complex that has wiped out a good chunk of its capacity for several years. Trump claimed Israel acted alone and won't do it again, but also said that if Iran keeps attacking energy infrastructure, he'll quote, massively blow up the rest of their gas reserve. The president is also reportedly considering sending in ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. On Wednesday night, oil shot past $118 a barrel. Gas prices are approaching $4 a gallon. And after a worse than expected inflation report, the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady. Here's how this is all playing if you turn on the TV. Far worse news on prices than expected. Americans have been grappling, of course, with surging gas prices up 86 cents a gallon since the Iran War began. It's almost the worst of both worlds. I guess that inflation would come close to describing the situation. Since the war began, the price of the pump has risen every day this month. I would think that records could be set. People are already seeing gas prices. Gas prices are up almost a dollar a gallon. Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Tough stuff, pretty scary. So that's what people are seeing on their screens. And here's the Trump White House feeling people's pain. Oil prices will go up. The economy will go down a little bit. I feel it would be worse, much worse actually. I thought there was a chance it could be much worse. It's not bad. As much as we've got, we got to focus on getting these gas prices down. The reality is overseas they're feeling it far worse than we did. If it were to be extended, this it wouldn't really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers and we'd have to think about, you know, if that continued, what we would have to do about that. But that's like really the last of our concerns right now. If you could say something to President Trump, he was going to hear you right now. What would it be? You're a worthless pile of s***. And you voted for him how many times? Three times. That was my bad. Apparently I'm an idiot. Love that woman. The best. I can't tell which of those clips is worse. J.D. Vance being like, I know you're paying a lot in gas prices, but just think of how high the gas prices are in Europe right now. At least you're not Europe. Or Kevin Hassett being like, yeah, if the war is extended, we may have to, you know, it's not going to really hurt anything, but consumers. And we may have to think about them, but really they're the last of our concerns Kevin Hassett is possibly the worst spokesperson that any White House has put out. He, at every opportunity, steps on a rake. It is very possible that somewhere there's some Democratic Super PAC that books him on TV and he just assumes the White House is doing it because he's so bad. I mean, so is Scott Besant. So was the Treasury Secretary. We could have included like five Scott Besant clips in here, but we didn't have time. Like the two chief economic spokespeople for the White House, Kevin Hassett and Scott Besant are the most out of touch fucking doofuses that I've ever seen talk for a White House. They work for a president who spends all of his time during a era of high prices talking about the gold leaf that he's procuring for the White House. How affordability is a hoax. And then, yeah, we shouldn't let Trump off the hook there, just being like, yeah, honestly, I thought it was going to be so much worse. It's not bad. Saying that near $4 a gallon gas is not bad is just a historic gaffe. There's so many gaffes. There's so many gaffes. It is all the gaff. It's the exception. The second Trump administration has been one giant gaffe. What a painful fucking gaff it's been. Yeah, it's a tough gaffe. It seems like the chances are getting quite low that Iran will be a quick excursion, as Trump calls it, not an incursion, an excursion, that just causes short-term price hikes. What do you think? I just, I've thought this for three weeks now. It's calling the war with Iran that has put us on the cusp of a global energy crisis. A synonym for a pleasure cruise is a truly insane choice. Especially when the center of the war is keeping a body of water closed. Yeah, you know what you can't do an excursion? The Shreya for Moose. Oh my God. I mean, this is such, this really is the worst case scenario of Trump. When you have a president who has no idea what he's doing, who is incredibly impulsive and is now surrounded by people who only tell him what he wants to hear, you end up in the situation. Trump got so lucky in his first term to avoid things like this. Maybe it was he had different people around him. Maybe he just didn't have the confidence to actually push through on these things. This is so fucking stupid. It's unfathomable. There was no point here. We're going to talk later on in this show. We're talking about some of the testimony about the various imminent threats and everything else. But there was no reason to do this. There was no plan for how it was supposed to go. They didn't think beyond the first bombs. They didn't consider that the Shreya for Moose might be blocked, which every person who's ever studied a war with Iran said would happen. And they have no plan to get us out of it. And they're just like bumbling along the whole way. And it's like it's people like, obviously, there's been, you know, American troops have died, civilians all across the Middle East have died. The girl school in Iran was bombed. Americans are paying a higher price of the pump. They're a shocks as economy that can be felt for months, if not longer, even if Trump somehow wraps this thing up in a week, which seems very hard to have fathomed. But the damage to the economy is being done right now. And for no fucking reason. Like it's insane. And that's an important point because- The no fucking reason part? The no fucking reason part, yeah. I think there's a- I've seen some people compare it to the tariffs, right? And like remember Liberation Day, and in the weeks after Liberation Day, we were like, why? Like I've never seen a president inflict so much damage, political damage on himself for no good reason. And, you know, it turned out that on some of the tariffs, Trump eventually backed off, you know, there's the whole fucking taco thing. And- But that situation was one where if he decided to just stop imposing the tariffs, or at least stop imposing certain tariffs, then, you know, the economic damage would be reduced, right? And it would go away a little bit. This is so much different because, like you said, if he- he could- this whole thing could stop tomorrow, which it's not going to, but if it did, you know, Tracy Allaway from Bloomberg, they had the great OddLots podcast with Joe Weisenthal, she wrote today, each successive day of the Iran conflict now generates months of impact on the global economy. And the longer it takes the world to adapt to a new reality of reduced Gulf oil flows, the longer and deeper the pain. So what's happening now is even though gas prices are high right now, the pain in the- in the price increase that's coming from the oil disruption and the gas disruption in the Middle East has not even worked its way through the economy just yet, fully. And, you know, oil price experts told CNBC this week that right now we're very much in the $150 a barrel range for, like, what oil will hit. He said, but I don't think it's ridiculous at all to suggest $200. And even if the war ends right now, it'll take a- they think it'll take a long time for prices to come back down and they probably won't come down to where they were before the war. And that's not even the whole thing. It's not even just oil prices. Fertilizer moves through the straight. Fertilizer prices impact food prices. Right now it's planting season in much of farm country. And you were- people were making decisions about what- what crops to plant and how many acres to plant based on the price of fertilizer. What can they afford to do? And so that's going to affect food supply and food prices this fall when harvest happens. Mortgage rates have gone up for three weeks in a row because of the inflationary impact of this war, which is going to impact people willing to buy houses and sell house effects, the housing market. It freezes capital. And all of these things are having an effect on an economy that was barely chugging along to begin with. And again, like we should talk about sort of options that Trump has right now to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and sort of end this crisis. So he's considering sending in ground troops, although I see that he thinks there's a loophole where he can get around calling it ground troops if he sends them to the islands around Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. And so if he has them take Karg Island, which is the island that they've- that Trump bombed last week, where I think Iran exports like 90% of its oil. But the challenge with that is, so you send a bunch of Marines in to take this island, you think Iran is then going to stop shooting at the Marines or they're going to just allow the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened? Because the idea is that if we take the island, then we can use it as a bargaining chip and that Iran will say, well, no, no, if we're going to be hurt if you have the control of this island where all of our oil is exported from. So we'll reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for you giving us back the island. Like they're not going to do that. They are fighting for the survival of their regime at this point. We're like killing off all of their leaders. They're becoming more radical as you go down the org chart in the Iranian regime. And what's to stop and great, destroyed a bunch of ballistic missiles, great, destroyed a bunch of their leadership, what's to stop random IRGC guys from just blowing up boats? You don't need ballistic missiles to shoot at boats in the Strait of Hormuz. All you need are mines and smaller guns and drones and all that shit. And then they're just going to keep doing that. Why would they stop doing that at this point? Because even if Trump decides the war is over, Iran's not going to think the war is over because Iran's pissed that they've been humiliated like this. And so they're going to make life miserable in the Strait of Hormuz for people who are trying to pass oil through there for, I don't know how long until they feel like there's a settlement to end the war that they've negotiated. And even, so there's, when it comes to using ground, there are three options with ground troops, as I understand it, short of obviously invading Iran. One is to put them along the Marines along the coast of Iran. This would violate the boots on the ground loophole to try to take out, to secure the places where they are firing the missiles and launching the attacks. That's one. The second is to take Kark Island, as you said, which would then be some sort of like monopoly-esque, you know, leverage piece that we would use. And by the way, there's a lot of experts too that are like, Iran's been building pipelines, they've been figuring out ways to get their oil out to market without Kark Island. And so if the Americans took Kark Island, it's not really even going to matter that much anyway. So there's some thought that that might happen. And the third option is to take a bunch of the islands, because it's not, Kark Island is where the energy infrastructure is, but you have a bunch of other islands, most notably one called like QSEM or something like that, that's sort of at the entry point to the Strait. I really feel like Tommy or Ben here, and I'm probably getting this wrong, but where they, where it's just where they launch a lot, where they have a lot of their military equipment, they have a bunch of the missiles and their boats and their ships there. And that these, and there are several other islands, like some of the islands are completely abandoned and uninhabited. And some of them are home to highly fortified Iranian naval and military installations. So that's not an easy thing to do. Either none of these are good options, which is once again, why over the last nearly 50 years, we have decided not to go to war with Iran, despite all of our concerns about the regime. And again, I feel like we're back debating the end of the war in Iraq. Remember when Iraq became a quagmire, and then everyone would say for years and years, there's no military solution to end this war. There must be a political solution. But like that's going to be the same thing with Iran, right? Like you can't just drop a bunch of fucking bombs, kill a bunch of their leadership. And then in a country of 90 million people who are now with the regime still very much in place, more radical, angrier, more vengeful, thinking that somehow everyone's just going to pack up and go home. It's just, it's even so different from Iraq. Iran's obviously a much bigger country than Iraq. It's a much more geographically large population complexity there. But also, the original, for a lot of people in Iraq, one in Saddam Hussein gone, we went in to invade to remove Saddam Hussein. And theoretically, for a lot of people, it's typically when you had a minority, authoritarian represented the ethnic minority. And so there was a world in which you could have possibly if they had not, the Bush administration, not fucked it up so bad, begun to build a new democracy or peaceful society with the majority population. That is not what's happening in Iran, right? We didn't go in to remove the people, the dictator everyone hated, we decided to bomb the shit out of the country and radicalize the population against us. I just remember reading someone say that there was a lot of people in Iran, there's an entire generation of people in Iran who did not grow up hating America. Yeah. Right. They're not part, they weren't around 1979, they didn't believe any of that. They didn't maybe didn't love us, but they're animating principles not hate America. And then we blew up a girl's school in their country. So like, we are way worse off in our end with Iran than we were before this war. And the Israelis just bombed their natural gas reserve. And I think that like, what happened this week with the Israelis hitting their natural gas reserve, the Iranians retaliating by hitting energy infrastructure all across the Gulf, but especially that Qatari natural gas hub is like, you see how the problem with like, they call it like the ladder of escalation, right? And like one side escalates and the other side then escalates. And there's a lot of miscalculation and miscommunication. And suddenly you've got Trump saying like, well, this was very bad. And I don't want Israel to do this again. But if Iran keeps retaliating, then I'll blow up the rest of its natural gas reserve completely, which will only hurt everything more, hurt everyone. But hurt us more. Right. Like that's what happens. And so you just like, if nothing else happens, and the whole thing ends tomorrow, it's still going to be incredibly hard to fix this, that to put this back in the bottle. I don't think you can. I don't know. Like, how bad do you think the politics on this could get for Trump and the Republicans? Because right now it's bad, but like, you know, usually in the polls, he's still like hanging around at upper 30s, low 40s. I don't know that it is going to be that Trump's approval rating will change that much. Where am I come down a few points as the economic consequences get worse for people, but Trump has a pretty high floor in his approval rating. The problem for Republicans here is people do not like this war. Right. They, you know, they, and they didn't like the war before their gas prices started going up. They never understood why we're going into it. You have polls that show that two thirds of Americans have seen their gas prices go up in two weeks. You have six and 10 Americans who disapprove of how Trump is handling gas prices. And the thing that's interesting is you have, the Republicans have not abandoned Trump on this, but you do have about 17% of Republicans in a recent poll that who disapprove of Trump on Iran, you have about a quarter of former Trump voters, which includes independents and Democrats who disapprove Trump on Iran. But I think the most important number here is that in almost every poll, the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of this war is two times the number of Americans who strongly approve of this war. So Trump's supporters will say they approve of him for it, but they're not excited about this. They don't think it's a good idea. They don't like it. It's reflexive partisanship. And that is very, very bad for turnout in the midterm. Right. There was just like, this is not, you know, you think about maybe the Kavanaugh confirmation in 2018, which fired up both sides. This is not something, or maybe even immigration could fire up both sides. This does not fire up the Republicans, but it does fire up everyone else and it infuriates independents. Well, here's something that could make it worse. On top of higher gas prices and higher inflation, Trump and Pete Hegzeff are also asking us to pay another $200 billion for their war, which is the price tag of the funding request the Pentagon will soon send to Congress, first reported by the Washington Post and then confirmed by Hegzeff during his latest press conference on Thursday morning, where he once again kicked off his remarks with a series of angry war haikus. A dishonest and anti-Trump press will stop at nothing. We know this at this point, to downplay progress, amplify every cost, and call into question every step. Sadly, TDS is in their DNA. They want President Trump to fail. We hold the cards. We have objectives. Those objectives are clear. We have allies pursuing objectives as well. And the truth speaks for itself. Iran is an energy-rich country. Could be, should be. Instead, like so many other places driven by radical ideology, they've spent that money instead of investing in their people. They invested in missiles and they invested in launchers and UAVs, and we are destroying and degrading that in historic proportions. As far as $200 billion, I think that number could move, obviously. It takes money to kill bad guys. So many other places where government, driven by radical ideology, invests instead of in its people in weapons and guns and bombs. Just horrible. I hate that. It seems, I can't even my finger on it, but it seems familiar in some way, shape, or form. TDS is in their DNA. We have objectives. We hold cards. We read remarks in a weird tone. Who do you think the press criticism for is for in every one of these press conferences? Donald Trump. It must be, right? But it's so weak. It is so weak. It's just they're just so angry every day. They think that they're like, I don't know if it's, if they've just convinced themselves that they're doing great and things are going well. And so they're just shocked that anyone would report otherwise. But I mean, clearly they have thin skin and he doesn't like the press, which is why he kicked most of them out of the briefing room and banned them from the Pentagon. Doesn't like the press. What did he do before this? Was he, was he, he talked about, he talked about cable news punditry in that briefing today. You like mocked cable news punditry, the fucking Fox weekend understudy, Pete Hexas. Yes. Yes. The guy whose primary responsibility was to answer the phone if, if Steve Ducey got the flu during the week. Anyway, once we got through all the war, Haikus, the 200 billion dollars, which he said, I might come up or down. We'll see. Can you imagine a more unpopular vote than supporting 200 billion dollars for a war that is currently making a bad economy even worse? No, I cannot. I think it would be, I mean, we, like, we asked this question about the big, beautiful bill. Like, could you imagine a bill that cut Medicaid and food stamps and then took that money and gave it to millionaires and billionaires for tax cuts? Can you imagine something worse than that? Yes, we can, John. A 200 billion dollars for a, an agency that has a one trillion dollar budget for a war no one wants and is raising your gas prices. That would actually be a worse vote. I thought this was horrific when it was going to be 50 billion dollars. Yes. Yes. If they came in with 15 billion, I would think it would be a bad vote. In fact, part of me thinks, and I don't know, they're probably not this smart, but part of me thinks that they, they leaked 200 billion so that they could go down to 100 billion or 50 billion and be like, see, it's not that bad after all. We compromised. We looked around and we cut some corners and we felt like we can, we can do it for 50. We don't need 200. I, I think, I think this number will come down because I think Congress is not going to want to do to another, I don't think there are votes for 200 billion dollars, but we can talk about that. I think this is the Pentagon leaking this ahead of the White House getting the number to try to lock them into 200 billion. So it's like the military says this is what we need. Because this is something that the military is sort of notorious for in their appropriations is to make, like put the number out there because they think if it comes from the military, it's more likely to be passed before the White House tries to dumb it down. The White House certainly wouldn't want to be caught reducing the number. But you can see a role. I just, I think this is a smaller number when it goes to Congress just because there's a reality of trying to pass it. But even still, I don't care if they come down at 100. I don't care if they come at 50. This is a horrendous vote. It's something that every Democrat should vote against. It is, voting for this would be insane in my mind, insane. Again, the under Donald Trump, Congress approved about a trillion dollars for the Pentagon. Where'd that money go, John? Where'd that money go? 200 billion dollars. Again, these are like big numbers, sort of hard to get your head around them. I did this with the 50 billion dollars. When we thought it was going to be 50 billion dollars. Here's what 200 billion dollars could do for the government. This is what the government could do with 200 billion dollars. Could restore Obamacare subsidies for 22 million Americans who just lost their subsidies in Obama and they're watching their premiums go up. It could restore those subsidies for six years for 22 million people. Could eliminate nearly all medical debt in America. All the medical debt that's out there in America. We could do that instead of 200 billion dollars so we could drop more bombs on Iran. Community college free for everyone for two decades. Two decades? Two decades. Wow. 1.3 million affordable housing units, food stamps for 42 million Americans for two full years, free school lunches for every kid in America for five years, fully fund WIC, which is Women and Infant Children, a program for pregnant mothers and infants, food assistance and medicine for them for 24 years. 200 billion dollars. Pick one of those things that we could do with 200 billion dollars. But instead, we are using 200 billion dollars to drop more bombs on Iran to intercept missiles from Iran and to, I don't know what the fuck else we're doing there. Just to send troops to take Carg Island. Which is not troops on the ground because it's surrounded by water. Troops on the island. Yeah, troops not troops on the ground. I don't know. Do you think this will pass Congress? It's hard right now to see. They'll do it as a reconciliation bill. So they will do it in the Senate. I think everybody's going to try this as a reconciliation bill because I don't think they can get 60 in the Senate. Yeah, they have to do it, right? There's no way you get 60 in the Senate for this. I'm trying to think, not saying my knowledge of the bird rule was great at the time or is really sustained over the last 15 years. But I'm curious how you would do that. But it's in here and over there. Let's just start with the House. If I see 10, if it's a 60 vote threshold and I see that many Democrats vote for it, I will leave the Democratic Party. That's not John. Let's not put your entire future in your ability to participate in primaries in the hands of I can name 10 Democrats who make you nervous right now. And they only need seven. They only need seven. Okay, Federman. So Federman and six others. The people who open the government. Yeah. Now, if you really look at that list, that list doesn't go for this because like Tim Kaine, I think was on that list and Tim Kaine's not voting. I mean, I'm really trying to think of what the arguments that they would make, right? Which is, okay, well, actually, this isn't new money for Iran. This is money to replenish our munitions and the stuff that we've used in Iran. And it's actually over the last five or six or seven years, we've sort of running low on all these supplies and because we used a bunch, we now have to refill them because it's about our defense and for the next war and what if we get attacked? And so like, isn't that the arguments that they would be? I think the argument they will make is we wouldn't have entered this war ourselves, but we're in it now. We have a lot of our troops who are in harm's way, either in military installations in the Gulf or, you know, in the Navy, the biggest armada ever, whatever some call that there. And we have to get the straight up hormones open and that's going to take money. So we have to give them and lives now, apparently. And lives. Yeah, for sure. For sure. I think that's we need to we need to need to send some troops to their death and we need to spend a lot of money billions and billions of dollars that we don't have so that we can reopen the straight of hormones that was only closed because we started a war. I mean, it is where we are. It's twisted logic for sure. But you know, a lot of the people on the Armed Services Committee and other parts of, you know, are captured by the military on some of these things. So I'm nervous about this. And of course, if we don't, if they don't vote for the funding and the funding doesn't go through, you can't bring the troops home. You just must leave them there in harm's way. They're stuck there because we'll not be gas for the boats. They just have to. We can't just we can't just get on the boats and come home. We must leave the troops there. That's what else are we supposed to do? And here's the thing. Whether it passes is Donald Trump did not ask for authorization for this war. This is a war. This is not an excursion. It is a war. Troops have died. It's obviously cost $200 million. It has rattled the it's created a spiraling conflict in the Middle East. This is a war. We know it's a war because Donald Trump keeps calling it a war. When he doesn't call an excursion, he refers to it as the war. And as does this Defense Secretary who kept saying war is hell a million times. If you fucking briefing. And so to vote for this is to de facto vote to authorize this war. And no Democrats should do that. This episode of Pod Save America is brought to you by Graza makers of crazy fresh olive oil and other great stuff made with crazy fresh olive oil. Graza has got everything you need to roast, toast, grill and garnish with flair and flavor. Upgrade all your favorite recipes and maybe even try something new. There's extra virgin olive oil for cooking and dressing. They make it from the world's best olives. It's always fresh, never blended. 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I use it all the time. And I use it long before they're a sponsor. I've been using Graza for years. Yeah. So head to graza.co and use Crooked to get 10% off your first order of olive oil and be sure to look for Graza Mayo the next time you're at your local grocery store. If you love positive America and want more of my political analysis, you should subscribe to my newsletter, The Message Box. I'm Dan Pfeiffer, former senior advisor to Barack Obama. And in Message Box, I break down what's actually happening in politics and what it's going to take to beat Donald Trump mega. If you follow every poll and every twist and turn in the campaign, Message Box is for you. This isn't just hot takes. Every edition delivers clear analysis behind the scenes insight and practical strategy you can actually use whether you're working on a race, organizing your community or just trying to win the argument in your group chat. So if you're listening to this hit pause, go to your browser and head to crooked.com slash yes we Dan because I have a special offer for Crooked media fans. You will get 20% off the Message Box for an entire year. So go to crooked.com slash yes we Dan. Work moves fast from emails and reports to proposals and updates. You're expected to think clearly, write confidently and get it right the first time and every message counts. That's where Grammarly comes in. It gives you everything you need to think, write and finish in one place or anywhere you type and text. You'll never have to switch tools or tabs. Grammarly's AI agents are built for how you work and where you work. So you can find the right words, adjust your tone and predict how your message might land before you hit send. Your ideas will get a boost while still sounding natural, credible and just the way you want. For nearly 17 years, Grammarly has been the standard for responsible AI. It's the premier writing tool that 93% of users trust to get more work done. In a world of generic AI, don't sound like everyone else. With Grammarly, you never will. Download Grammarly for free at Grammarly.com. That's Grammarly.com. So we've talked a lot about the MAGA media stars who turned on Trump over Iran, but this week we got the first actual defection from within the administration. Joe Kent, Trump's handpicked director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in a letter where he said that, quote, Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation and that, quote, we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. Kent was a very far right, extremely Trumpy politician before taking this job. He's also a former CIA officer and retired Green Beret, who served 11 combat tours, regardless of who he is. His now former boss, director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, didn't refute what he said about Iran not posing an imminent threat during her congressional testimony this week. Here's Kent talking about why he resigned on Tucker Carlson's show and then Gabbard in front of Congress in an exchange with John Assoff. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation. How did you reach that conclusion? I think this is key. I mean, this would be more challenging to explain had the Secretary of State, the president, and the Speaker of House, the House not come out and said that we conducted this attack at this time because the Israelis were about to do so. So that takes away the argument that there was an imminent threat, as Iran was planning to attack us immediately. That just simply did not exist. Was it the intelligence community's assessment that nevertheless, despite this obliteration, there was a quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? Yes or no? It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat. Okay. That is up to the president based on a volume of information. It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to the United States. This is the worldwide threats hearing. That's Tulsi Gabbard, who actually sold no war with Iran t-shirts when she was running for president. As a Democrat. As a Democrat. What a journey she has taken to be the D&I to a Republican president who started a war with Iran. What do you make of Kent's resignation? We should also say that now Kent is under investigation for leaking classified information. The FBI, law enforcement sources maintain that the investigation was opened before he resigned because they clearly don't want it to seem like this is any kind of retribution. Who knows if they're telling the truth or not. They don't tell the truth about many things. So it's hard to believe them. When Kent first resigned, there was a bunch of Democrats who went out and said, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, this guy is a extremist who believes in conspiracy theories. Do not get on his, get on his, don't, don't endorse this, don't get on his side. Tell me the person in the Trump administration who could resign in protest over something who would not be an extremist who believes in conspiracy theories. Name one of them. It's like people take the fucking win. Right? Like he's, he's head of counterterrorism resigned because he said the war was a mistake. There was no imminent threat. And if you listen to the whole Tucker Carlson interview, there's a lot of wacky stuff in there. There is some way. Well, it's actually, it gets so much wackier at the end. It starts off like, and I will say, Tucker sounds way wackier than Joe Kent, even though I know, and we look, we covered his race against Marie-Glucine Camprez. Like he is, he's a psycho. Like a lot of his beliefs are crazy, but he, but many of the things he said in Tucker Carlson's interview, you don't have to believe that Joe Kent is a wonderful person to believe them. All you have to do is line them up with other facts and other things that people have said. And one of the most important things he says is one of the reasons we're at war is that the people who have contrary views to the president on many matters, but particularly the matter of war with Iran is we're not allowed to see the president, that those views were kept from him. That has been one of the big problems with this administration. And this is actually a change. He said under Operation Midnight Hammer, there was a large debate within the administration about the pros and cons of doing that. This time that debate did not happen. And so that, like what he is saying, put aside all of his other crazy views, the argument he is making here is the right argument about how we got here. And it is notable that someone, this high up in his administration, has resigned over it. Like that is a big fucking deal. And we can't be like so precious about all of his views. Like it really, like, I don't want to hammer on this, but if the view, if the idea is that we will accept no whistleblowers who are kind of wacky, we will accept no whistleblowers to Trump administration, like from poor political pointees. That cannot happen. But it's also just like, if you want, point out the parts of his argument that you don't like that are wacky, right? Like so, you know, he leans pretty heavily into it's like the Israel lobby got us into the war and they convinced Trump and clearly he and Tucker believe that. And this is where their argument falls flat because they can't bring themselves to just admit that Donald Trump is a fucking moron easily persuaded by anyone he talks to. So yes, BB Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence may have persuaded Trump to bomb Iran and to join this war, but also Trump could have been just as easily persuaded by watching a fucking segment on Hannity with Mark Levin. Yes, like it doesn't like you don't, it doesn't, it doesn't matter whether it's Israel, whether it's Fox, whether it's someone on fucking Twitter, whether it's some jackoff in his administration that persuades him, like Donald Trump is an easily persuadable moron. Tucker can't see that or maybe he can't, he doesn't want to admit it. Same thing with Joe Kent. And so they do the Israel thing, but like it is clear that BB Netanyahu has wanted to invade Iran and do this forever. And he was very open about it just the other week. Instead, I've wanted to do this for 40 years. And now, now the Americans are doing it with me. Look, I mean, Joe Kent, both in this interview and then in previous parts of his life as it had been reported or alleged, like really dabbles in anti-Semitic tropes. Like that is, that is very clear. Put that aside, even if you don't want to have the Israel discussion, even though, as Joe Kent says in that clip, Marco Rubio and Mike Johnson said the same thing in public as to why we, we attacked Iran then. The point he is saying is there was no threat and the decision making process that got us into this war was fucked up and the people at the sending views were not allowed near the president. So now we're in a bad war. So he has to quit to have his voice heard because his warnings and cautions would not be heard in the administration. So he had to quit. That is like, I'm just so annoyed at all of these, especially these former Biden national security goobers Iran here, like lecturing us about the dangers of Joe Kent. Yeah, sit down. So like Iran was not close to getting a nuclear weapon. It did not have ballistic missiles that could reach the United States. And wouldn't for 10 years. And wouldn't for 10 years. It was not an imminent threat to the United States or to US interests. And according to Marco Rubio, the Israelis decided that they were going to strike and we join them according to Marco Rubio, because if the Israelis struck, then Iran would retaliate against us. And so we wanted to go first. Which is the idiotic reasons for the war. These are just the facts on the table that no one in the administration has been able to refute, including Tulsi Gabbard under oath in Congress this week. Yeah. Just you have to take a step back and think about this for a second, which is we're in a war. The president of the United States has said repeatedly that he had a feeling that they were about to attack us. And then in his bones, he's going to end this war when he feels it as bones. But just millions of Americans woke up on a Saturday morning and were like, we're at war with Iran. And then the president goes out and tells you the reason we're at war with Iran is because he thought Iran was about to attack us, that it was an imminent threat. And now you have two of the highest ranking intelligence officials in the country saying that is not true. Like that is a scandal of epic proportions. But because Donald Trump's a doofus and everyone treats it like they grade him like a doofus on a curve, then we don't take that seriously. But that's the story he's telling the American people. That's what he's telling the American people why we're at war. And that is being contradicted. And we can't, because he just says dumb shit all the time, he shouldn't avoid it being held accountable for lying to the country about why we're in a war. Yeah, yeah, most of the government says dumb shit. That's also crazy. Yeah. All right, the other big cong, speaking of dumb shit, the other big congressional hearing this week was about confirming Trump's pick to run the Department of Homeland Security, Mark Wayne Mullen. The Oklahoma senator took questions from his colleagues, while the department he hopes to lead remained shut down over Republicans refusal to reform ICE. People are waiting hours in airport security lines right now because so many TSA agents who've been working without pay because of the shutdown are calling in sick. Democrats keep trying to fund TSA and all of the non-immigration related parts of DHS, but Republicans keep refusing. And the White House still won't concede to Democrats demands that ICE officers do things like stop wearing masks and obtain judicial warrants before arresting people. During his confirmation hearing, Mullen wouldn't promise these concessions either, nor did he offer any reassurances that he'd run DHS much differently than Kristi Noem. But he did spend a good amount of time arguing with fellow Republican Rand Paul about whether he deserved to have the shit kicked out of him and whether two consenting senators should still be able to settle their differences with a duel. Tell the world why you believe I deserve to be assaulted from behind, have six ribs broken and a damaged lung. Tell me to my face why you think I deserved it. And while you're at it, explain to the American public why they should trust a man with anger issues to set the proper example for ICE and Border Patrol agents. You supported the felonious violent attack on me from behind. I did not say I supported it. I said understood it. Is it today your opinion that the caning of Charles Sumner was not only justified but argues still for resolving our political differences with violence? What I would simple point now to some of the rules that still apply to this body. For instance, dueling with two consenting adults is still there. I was pointing out what is still- Then they'll legal for 170 years. There's no precedent for legal dueling. Even then they fled the country. I'm not going to be the smartest guy in any room I walk into. What is the primary mission of Homeland Security Investigations? As I said, that's protect the homeland. Bring peace of mind and secure the confidence of the American people. HSI specifically is very important because they specialize in dealing with human trafficking, human smuggling, counterfeit, bank fraud things of that nature. Actually, I have a lot of friends that work for them. I just want you to know that the whole thing about the dueling and Rand Paul getting attacked from behind, that was the open of the hearing. That was in just the first few minutes, Dan. His use of two consenting adults is very fine there because in the viral clip when he tried to fight the guy from the teamsters, he also used the term two consenting adults. He said, we're two consenting adults. We can finish this man-to-man and then told him to stand up and go outside so they could fight outside this hearing room. Yeah, for people who missed that and Rand Paul brought it up, Mark Wayne Mellon did it before the hearing threatened to fight Sean O'Brien of the teamsters physically fight. He stood up and started to take his wedding ring off. I didn't want to damage it by punching Sean O'Brien in the face. The clip is really worth watching because then Bernie Sanders is like, sit down. You're a United States Senator. Bernie's going to break up the fight. You'll be shocked to learn that Rand Paul voted against Mellon's confirmation, but he still got voted out of committee because of a yes vote from John Federman. How about that? Not surprising. It should be surprising. I mean, it's not surprising. It should be fucking enraging to people. John Federman is like, I called him my friend and am glad that Donald Trump fired Kristi Noem. I called on him to be fired and I was like, come on, man. He just trolls now. That's what he does. The funny clip was the Rand Paul thing, but the Geigo thing, which we could have gone and done more of that, he has no idea. What a large segment of the Department of Homeland Security is does. He was just mumbling through that answer. The guy's been in Congress. He's been in the Senate for a couple years. He's been in the House even before that. The guy's been in Congress for many years now, many years. You don't know the different functions of the Department of Homeland Security. He's never worked on these issues in any way he should reform. He went from just being a guy to being like two weeks ago and now he's having his earache. Do you think it's time to, first of all, he's probably going to get confirmed, right? Because Federman's a yes. That would be my assumption, yeah. Great. Wonderful. Now we've got Mark Wayne Mullen and maybe he's going to bring back dueling at DHS. What do you think about whether DHS ever gets opened again and these TSA lines and the airports and it feels like it's getting to the point where the public's like, what the fuck? And I still think it is hard for Republicans to explain why a fight over ICE has to hold up the funding of the rest of the Department, I think. Obviously, there are some airports where the TSA lines have been out the door, just like taking forever. I've seen footage from Texas, I think Austin at the end of South by Southwest where the line was unbelievable and took an incredibly long time. Other airports where that's not happening. I think that Democrats should bring two ideas into this decision-making process. One is they're really under no political pressure to give in here. No one knows what this fight is about. They don't know that this is about a Democratic shutdown over ICE. The Republicans aren't going to be able to tell anyone that because Donald Trump launched a war that is dominating attention. And so when people see long lines, they're more likely to blame the incumbent party than the Democratic party in this. So I would not feel political pressure to cave here. I think you also have to be realistic about what you can actually achieve. So is there some real reforms that you can get that are maybe short of everything you want, but are real and make it real to people's lives? Now? And then recognize that you're most likely going to have the House and maybe the Senate next year and have even more leverage to demand even stronger reforms. So what you don't want to do, I think, is be so stubborn now that you're going to have another 10 months with ICE operating without these reforms because you're making the perfect enemy of the good. So if there's something, some real things here, the White House wants a deal. They're sending a, I read in Punch Bowl this afternoon, they're sending another counter offer back. So they sent an offer, the Democrats rejected sending a counter offer. There seems to be some momentum to try to get something done here. So set up, what are the things that you think you really absolutely have to have? It won't be everything. And then prepare for a much bigger battle next year when you control which bill gets to the floor of the House. I think that's fair. I think that, yeah, the offer that the White House sent this week was basically like, we'll do all the things that are in the law that we haven't been doing, which is just bullshit. And so you've got to have some kind of real reform there. It is, I think what's most difficult is right now, some of the most egregious things that ICE and DHS are doing are not going to be fixed by reforming ICE's practices. I saw that, I tweeted about this, but I saw this story this week that like, a man who's been in this country his whole life, he's a DACA recipient, he was brought here as a young child, he works, he pays taxes, he's got a family, and he was on his way to visit his new baby in the ICU. And his wife and ICE picked him up and arrested him and is now trying to deport him, even though he was a DACA recipient protected by DACA, was already applying to renew his DACA status and the Trump administration just decided not to renew it, just dragged their feet on it. And so they scooped him up and now they're going to try to try to deport him. And it's like, nothing that Democrats are asking for or nothing that ICE, you know, no reforms to ICE right now would change that horrific practice. And so you're right that like, you have to be honest about what you can achieve through these reforms. And I do think like getting fucking, you know, forcing them to obtain judicial warrants and getting the masks off are two really important things. But I agree that you have to be, you have to be honest about what you can achieve. And but I also think you're right that like the political pressure is not on Democrats as much as it's on Republicans right now. Yeah, I think, right, like just as I'd say, the your motivating factor should be, we have 10 months or so until we are in charge of the house, if we win the house, right? But you're, that's what you're up, you're planning for. What can you do that improves people's lives and improves the conduct of ICE over the next 10 months that is actually achievable and would make a difference. And if you can find something that would make a difference and improve the process, maybe it's judicial warrants, maybe something else, that be willing to take that now. Yeah. Before we move on from this, I should also mention that NBC News reported on Thursday that a year ago, Kristi Noem fuckboy Corey Lewandowski told a legend fuckboy, a legend fuckboy. The lawyer's got in my ear and said, say a legend. Told a DHS private prison contractor that in order for his company to win more government contracts, Lewandowski would need to get paid a success fee, special government employee Corey Lewandowski getting paid a success fee. After the company declined to pay Lewandowski, the company's federal contracts with DHS shrank because according to a senior DHS official, talk to NBC, Lewandowski told officials not to award any more contracts to the company. What do you think? Is that normal to solicit bribes from your private prison contractor when you're in government? There's not a lot normal going on with this whole Corey Lewandowski thing. Is it normal for the alleged lover of the married department of Homeland Security secretary to become the gatekeeper and the person who made all the decisions? No. Is it normal for a random employee to demand a badge and a gun? No. Is it normal for someone to take on a temporary role that allowed them to only work about whatever it is 120 days, then work much longer by going in the building without swiping their badge, which was in that Wall Street Journal story back then, so that wouldn't count on his days of service. No, that's too normal. But it may be normal in the Trump administration, so that we don't know. And this isn't just like, there's a million things we talk about that are corrupt and unethical. This is just like illegal. It's just a bribe. It's just soliciting bribes. And Corey Lewandowski, I mean, this is, I almost like don't want Democrats to start investigating it now because then Trump gives them the pardon. Just hold off till Trump gets out of office. He might be the one guy who doesn't get the pardon in the end. I was going to say, just, will everyone be quiet about Corey Lewandowski? Let's wait for Trump to leave office and then people can jump in. 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New customers can save 35% on your first month of subscription by going to dosdaily.co slash crooked or entering crooked at checkout. That's D-O-S-E-D-A-I-L-Y dot C-O slash crooked for 35% off your first month subscription. If you love Positive America and want more of my political analysis, you should subscribe to my newsletter, The Message Box. I'm Dan Pfeiffer, former senior advisor to Barack Obama. And in Message Box, I break down what's actually happening in politics and what it's going to take to beat Donald Trump mega. If you follow every poll and every twist and turn in the campaign, Message Box is for you. This isn't just hot takes. Every edition delivers clear analysis behind the scenes insight and practical strategy you can actually use whether you're working on a race, organizing your community, or just trying to win the argument in your group chat. So if you're listening to this, hit pause, go to your browser and head to crooked.com slash yes, sweet Dan, because I have a special offer for crooked media fans. You'll get 20% off a Message Box for an entire year. So go to crooked.com slash yes, sweet Dan. Work moves fast from emails and reports to proposals and updates. You're expected to think clearly, write confidently, and get it right the first time. And every message counts. That's where Grammarly comes in. It gives you everything you need to think, write, and finish in one place or anywhere you type and text. You'll never have to switch tools or tabs. Grammarly's AI agents are built for how you work and where you work. So you can find the right words, adjust your tone, and predict how your message might land before you hit send. Your ideas will get a boost while still sounding natural, credible, and just the way you want. For nearly 17 years, Grammarly has been the standard for responsible AI. It's the premier writing tool that 93% of users trust to get more work done. In a world of generic AI, don't sound like everyone else. With Grammarly, you never will. Download Grammarly for free at Grammarly.com. That's Grammarly.com. All right, let's talk Democratic politics. We got some primary results on Tuesday in Illinois. J.B. Pritzker's chosen candidate, Lieutenant Governor, Julianna Stratton, who you'll hear Dan talk to in a moment will be the Democratic nominee for Senate. But the big story of the night was the role that pro-Israel advocacy group APAC played in several House primaries, where affiliated super PACs with APAC spent $22 million. At least $7 million of that $22 million was spent just in the 9th district primary, where Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss beat out progressive activist and longtime crooked contributor, Kat Abigazzale. The catch is, APAC directed most of their spending in that race against Biss, even though he has an Israeli mother and has refused to call what's happened in Gaza a genocide. But because he advocated for conditioning aid to Israel, APAC spent $7 million to defeat him, and they failed. And their candidate in the Illinois 7th lost as well, though APAC backed House candidates Donna Miller and Melissa Bean won their primaries. So APAC went 2-in-2. In his victory speech, Biss called out the group by name and criticized it, quote, supporting the idea that we can't accept nuance in the US-Israel relationship. Other Democrats outside of Illinois are also reevaluating their relationship with the organization. Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, a 2028 hopeful, told Politico this week that he wouldn't take any APAC money and called settler violence in the West Bank, quote, disgusting. What do you make of the role APAC played in Illinois and just the role they're playing in Democratic primaries overall? I know you have a great piece about this in the message box today. Today. You came out today, Thursday, yesterday. Honestly, I read it this morning and I felt like it was already yesterday. God, it's been a long day. Anyway, today is Jack's fifth birthday. So we have been at it. Oh, happy birthday, Jack. Yes, he woke up at about 5.20 this morning, which was awesome. He was very excited, but he also woke up at 5 yesterday because he thought yesterday was his birthday. So it's been a very busy day in our house. And if you want that message box or any other ones, you can subscribe at crooked.com slash yesweedan for a 20% discount and an organic plug. I think that what happened in the 9th District of Illinois is just the classic example of how asinine and counterproductive APAC's political strategy has been. Because Daniel Biss would have been a potential ally, not an ardent supporter of everything APAC stands for, but someone that they could engage with in good faith. Instead, they spent millions of dollars trying to defeat him. And now they've created an adversary. And you're seeing that across the board. And the problem for APAC is going in races, they don't run any ads. Now, the important thing to know here is they don't run any ads about the U.S.'s really relationship. They only run ads about other things. In New Jersey, when they were trying to defeat Tom Malinowski and accidentally elected the progressive opponent instead, they spent $2 million attacking him on ice funding. In this race, when they switched their funding to try to beat Kat, they tried to suppress her vote at the end to maybe help Laura find their chosen candidate. They threw a group that was called like elect Chicago women. They ran ads accusing her of being a fake progressive. And so they operate with the shadowy groups running ads that have nothing to do with their stated purposes and organization to handpick Democrats. And that has polarized Democrats against them and hurt their cause. There will be less Democrats in Congress willing to deal with APAC because of the way they are acting in these primaries. And the thing is, is that they refuse to acknowledge the reality of how Democrats' perception and really the country's perception of Israel has changed. Everyone, there's been a dramatic shift among Democrats who approve of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, dramatic shift around Americans who, whether they sympathize more with Israelis or the Palestinians, people attribute that to being a dramatic shift in, primarily about a shift among Democrats. But it's not. It is, yes, that is true. It is mostly among Democrats. But even the independence, the number of independents who approve of the U.S.-Israeli relationship is down 19 points since the aftermath of October 7th among Republicans is down nine points. And so you can't go in there and try to bludgeon people into 100% support of your agenda. And the way that they have operated is very bad for their cause. It is stretching, sort of exploding every loophole in campaign finance. And essentially, they're operating just in a way that Democrats should want to have nothing to do with them. Like it is such bad faith cynical politics. And what makes it even worse is it's bad faith cynical politics that is executed with abject incompetence, which as a former political operative does bother me as well. Here's the problem with APAC. APAC wants you to think they are a pro-Jewish organization. They want you to think they are a pro-Israel organization. In reality, APAC is an organization that promotes Benjamin Netanyahu's government in Israel. APAC is an organization that supports spending our tax dollars to fund the Israeli military. With no conditions. APAC is an organization that supports the around war that we have just spent most of the pod talking about how badly it's going, how dangerous it is, how many lives it's taken, how much money it's costing. APAC is an organization that supports Israel fighting in Lebanon, which is starting to look like the war they fought in Gaza, which has led to thousands and thousands and thousands of civilians dying, most of them children. That is what APAC supports. That is the policies APAC supports. If APAC truly believed that those policies are popular, then it would spend its considerable resources making the case to voters in support of those policies. The ads that APAC ran would be about the policies that APAC supports and the policies it demands the people who run for office that it supports also support. APAC doesn't do that. APAC is too scared to run on their policies. APAC will tweet about their policies in the Twitter world, but when it comes to running ads, when it comes to actually presenting a case to voters, APAC hides behind random super PACs, shady super PACs, different names, concerned women for Chicago or Illinois, whatever they fucking called themselves in Illinois and New Jersey, and they do it all over the place. They say, oh, other super PACs do that too. Yeah, sure they do. That doesn't make them any better. Yeah, the other ones you do that are primarily the AI industry and the crypto industry. Yeah, so good. Yeah, no, so you're all the same then. So if you believe in your policies, then go fucking have that debate, but you don't want to have that debate because you know your policies are unpopular because you know if you told a bunch of Americans that you support using their tax dollars to fund BB Netanyahu's fucking destruction of the Middle East, then they would tell you to go fuck yourself. That's what APAC is. And they have done this by being like, if you're against APAC, then you're anti-Israel and sometimes you're anti-Semitic and you're promoting anti-Semitism and you're promoting anti-Israel sentiment and all this bullshit and it is fucking bullshit. Because all they do is go around and hide their true intentions and hide behind these super PACs and just like attack people for, they attack people from the left. They attack candidates from the left for things that they don't even believe just to try to win these races. It is pathetic. It is pathetic. And I really hope that like 2028 candidate, like if I were 2028 candidate, if I were advising a 2028 candidate, I would not, none of them should take a dime from APAC. Yeah, that would be a truly idiotic decision if you wanted to be president. And now when you say this, then you get, because we've gotten this before, then everyone's like, oh, you guys are doing a litmus test and now you're saying that people who take from APAC shouldn't be in the party. No, be in the fucking party. Run all you want. I'm just giving you advice. That's fine. That's just me saying. I'm just giving you advice. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not gonna, I won't support you. It like, I mean, you know, maybe if it's between you and Donald Trump, I'll support you. But like, if you, if you make it through the primary and you're the Democratic nominee, then I will, whatever, I will support you. Yes, of course. Of course. But like, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not supporting, I'm not putting my money behind a candidate that does that. I just don't want to do that. It's ridiculous. There's the, we're taught like thousands and thousands of lives are at stake right now. And there's zero self reflection from APAC about what the Israeli government has done. It's crazy. All right. Before we get to Dan's interview, we just want to touch on a few stories that show Trump's not going to let a little war get in the way of making money, literally, in this first instance. On Thursday, Trump's handpicked arts commission voted to approve a commemorative 24 carat gold coin featuring Donald Trump. No, no. We're not having, oh yeah, you didn't know this? I can't, I just would have assumed it would have been a historic figure of some kind. Maybe a pioneer in civil rights or a suffragist or some of the other things that Donald Trump cares passionately about. It's also like Donald Trump himself. We should like put it up on the screen for people who are watching. He didn't ask for this right. Someone just, they did it. It's him with like a menacing like scowl, like holding a desk. It's very fucking weird. It's now going to be a U.S. It's going to be a gold commemorative gold coin that the fucking mint creates or something. Is that, I don't know how it works, but that same day, the same day, today, Thursday, as we're recording this, Trump posted an image of gold shoes on Truth Social with the caption, rare Trump sneakers listed for $180,000 at SneakerCon in Riyadh. Hey, Dan, you think they're having a good time at SneakerCon in Riyadh as the ballistic missiles from Iran are flying overhead and hitting their refineries? You think they're all excited to buy the $180,000 Trump shoes? Glad Trump let us know about that. There is some person in the middle of this war. Some person who wants to deal with the government or a partner who's going to buy those shoes, put them on and post them Instagrams and start DMing them to White House officials. And finally, this is from an Axios piece today. While Trump deals with the war in Iran and rising gas prices at home, the president seems downright giddy. What's he giddy about? The UFC fight he'll be holding on the White House lawn this summer, which he told Axios is, quote, the hottest ticket he's ever seen. Why Donald Trump spoke to Axios about this fight on the South Lawn? I assume they called him. I assume they called him. He talks to Axios three to four times a day, as far as I can tell. I know. He picks up their calls. He hasn't picked up Tommy's call yet. Trump has apparently been personally fielding ticket requests for the UFC fight on the South Lawn, which will go to people who've donated to his Super PAC, his inaugural, and of course, of course, his ballroom. What do you think, Dan? Where would you like to begin? This is what's going through his mind. Let's start with the UFC. Great. So Donald Trump is a really busy guy. He didn't really have the time and energy to dig into the war he started in Iran, but he is going to spend, I would willing to bet hours on the friends and family list for the UFC fight. There is going to be someone in the Oval Office. He's going to be like putting together a wedding seating chart. With a seating chart and he's like moving people around. He's like, I can't put Jake Paul and Blogan Paul and other sides of the arena. They got to be together. Meg and Kelly can't sit next to Mark Levin. Yes. And he can be in a smaller seat for all the obvious reasons, right? Corey Lewandowski can't sit next to Kristi Noem because the husband's coming. These are like big problems. Yeah. Big problems. It's going to be hard to do this, but he is the man for the job. He will do the seating arrangements properly. I can't wait to go. You have to see White House 250. They don't want to sit you next to Stephen Miller. Right, of course. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be your place. But they also can't put me next to JD Vance. Or Meg and Kelly. And even if Trish McLaughlin is never in your existence, they're not going to put you near her either. See, here's a good example. I unfollowed Trish McLaughlin because you know what? She's gone. Not in the White House anymore. I don't need to see what lies Trish McLaughlin's peddling in. She's gone from my mind now. Growth. I like to see that career here at the end of the podcast. Finally, Dan, if you're looking for a place, if you're in DC, if you happen to be in DC, and you're looking for a place to follow the news, catch a drink, and maybe bet which member of the Iranian regime Israel will assassinate next, look no further than the Polly Market Bar, the Polly Market Bar, which is set to open this Friday in Washington DC. The bar is named the Situation Room, and it will essentially be a prediction market sports bar. And on all the screens everywhere, you know, like a sports bar, they got all the games and all the screens. Well, this has got live Twitter feeds. X feeds, if it were there. X feeds. Bloomberg feeds. And of course, Polly Market feeds all the bets that you could imagine. And flight radar. That's in there too. You can track flights. A bunch of fucking losers. Loser city. I assume this was a prank. Not a prank. It's not every now and then what's real. And you just imagined being like, you know what I would like with my Twitter feed, a big screen and a pitcher of beer. Now I can imagine some people thinking that I would like that. Are you all of a sudden reconsidering it? Yeah, that's a good point. Then I don't have to hold the phone. Then I can just sit there. Well, here's the thing. I could be double-fisted. I could be drinking. You're in it for the tweeting, not the reading of tweets. That's right. There's a world of people who play in the games. There are people who watch the games, the Buffalo Wild Wings. You're more of a player in the Twitter games. I just can't think of anything more. I mean, I actually shouldn't say anything because everything is more dystopian. But I can't think of many things more dystopian than like betting on, when will the U.S. bomb Iran next at a bar while you're watching this fucking live feed of a map and betting with Polymart? You're just waiting for that OSINT tweet to come through with the latest data? That fucking city. Anyway, I don't miss it. Let's not mismatch the whole city. When I meant more in the Mark Leibovitch vein of the town. Of the town. Yes, the town loves the Polymarket bar. There are plenty of other great bars. I guess CNN could. Probably no one goes to anymore because we're old. Those bars aren't around anymore, China. The ones we went to. There's a long gone. They're new bars, I assume. They don't have large Twitter feeds. The days of old glory are gone. Sure, China. That was, those were your days of glory. I'll tell you that. All right, Dan. When we come back, everyone will hear Dan's interview with Julianna Stratton, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois. Today's show is sponsored by Strawberry.Me. Let me ask you something. Are you where you want to be in your career? Or are you waking up every day knowing you're capable of more but not sure how to get there? Listen, success doesn't just happen. And the most successful people in the world don't figure it out alone. They have mentors, coaches and people guiding them every step of the way. That's where Strawberry.Me career coaching comes in. Career coaching gives you the clarity, strategy and accountability needed to turn your goals into reality. Whether it's landing a new job, advancing in your current role or transitioning into a field you love with expert guidance, you'll identify obstacles, holding you back, develop a step-by-step plan and take action with confidence knowing you have a dedicated coach supporting you every step of the way. 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It's the premier writing tool that 93% of users trust to get more work done. In a world of generic AI, don't sound like everyone else. With Grammarly, you never will. Download Grammarly for free at Grammarly.com. Joining me today is Illinois Lieutenant Governor Julian Astrant, who just became the Democratic nominee for Senate Lieutenant Governor. Welcome to Potsafe America. Thank you for having me. You were an underdog for most of the race. You trailed by some pretty big margins up until the very end. It was a very exciting night. How are you feeling a couple of days after your win? I'm feeling great, certainly on the outside. The inside might be taking a nap right now. I'm really excited about the fact that we got our message out. We always knew that this was a campaign where we wanted to center the voices of the people of Illinois. I spent time crisscrossing the state. We certainly were outspent, I think by a four-to-one margin. We knew that we had a message that would resonate with voters. We did the work and we came out on top. I'm very grateful. Now I'm going to work for the next eight months to make sure that we can win this general election in November. I would say if we don't win the general election in November in Illinois, I'm going to be very concerned. I recognize you don't want to catch your chickens before they're hatched here. You're going to take it seriously. Right, as you should. I don't want our listeners to panic here. Your race, interestingly enough, I'm sure it felt like to you like I got a ton of attention, but nationally, less attention to some of these other primaries in these states like Maine, Michigan, Texas, particularly Texas and Maine, where we're trying to figure out which Democrat is the best one to take to flip this Republican seat. For our listeners who weren't, who maybe who didn't watch it, you said your message worked. Tell us what your message was. Yeah. Well, first of all, let me just say to what you just pointed out that I've always said that even though Illinois is considered a quote unquote safe blue state, and this was a safe blue seat, I think that, you know, it was important to get out to voters that it matters who's in the seat, especially in the moment that we're living in right now, that we can't take anything for granted. And it's not just let's just elect a Democrat. We needed someone who was going to fight for the people. And that was what I was hearing from voters across the state that they wanted someone who was going to go to the Met fighting for them and stand up to this president. They were looking for new energy, new voices, just new perspectives and people who were going to meet this moment. And I think that it also was, it wasn't just about what we were fighting against, but what we were fighting for. And so I developed that message of what I was going to fight for in Washington by listening to people and not trying to tell people what they should care about, but rather take what they were telling me and craft my messaging around that. I think it's people looked at this race who maybe, you know, maybe had at least a passing understanding of Illinois politics. You know, this is an oversimplification, so I'll admit this, but you know, you have a potentially slightly more moderate candidate in your opponent. You have, you know, yourself, you ran, really progressive with some very progressive positions. The expectation is that you would crush in Chicago, that the your opponent would do very well downstate in the Burbs, but you actually won 44 or 50 awards. Talk a little bit about, what lessons you take from that about the ability of a progressive message to work in rural areas, suburban areas, ex-urban areas? Yeah, and I do want to point out that we were pleasantly surprised to see how many downstate counties we all want. I mean, we've got Chicago, we did great in some of the Collar counties, but also downstate. And as the only candidate that has represented the entire state of Illinois for the last seven years as lieutenant governor, I always knew that there were unique parts of the state. Each part of the state has its different character, different issues that are important. But when I think about the messaging, these are things that everybody wants, access to affordable health care, which is why I'm fighting for Medicare for all, especially at a time that we see a president and an administration that's stripping millions of people of their health care. I'm fighting to raise wages, and I personally want to fight for a $25 minimum wage at the federal level. I don't see it as minimum, I see it as a livable wage because with everything getting so expensive, and we're certainly seeing that it's important that we recognize that $7.25 is not enough for anyone to take care of themselves, let alone a family. And even with what we've done in Illinois, with a $15 an hour minimum wage, it's important that we recognize that's only $31,000 a year. That's not enough to take care of yourself or your family either. So I think we need a livable wage. And I'll tell you one of the things that was really surprising to me on this trail, which is why it's important to think about all of the different diverse communities that this message resonated with. I noticed that too many people think small around what we can accomplish in Washington, and then it's, oh, well, that's going to be too hard, and I'm not sure what people will think about it. But why should we think that way? We should think very big, we should have a big vision for what's possible and fight for it. And I think because that was my message, people really just thought, you know what, she's going to be someone who's going to try to make my life better, and they feel like too many in Washington are, you know, get there and forget who they represent. You talk a little bit about the role that your views on ICE and how you talked about it, how that played downstate as well. Well, I made it very clear that I want to abolish ICE. You know that here in Illinois and the city of Chicago and surrounding areas, we were, you know, terrorized quite frankly by Operation Midway Blitz. We saw our neighbors being snatched off the streets by masked agents stuffed into unmarked vehicles and no due process, no warrants, and a president who said he was going after the worst of the worst, and that's not what happened. We saw tamale vendors and we saw, you know, being snatched off the street. We saw people working in daycare centers. And, you know, I think this is just an example of, you know, why, you know, I was out there protesting and doing everything that I could, helping students get from school and have safe passage. I was on rapid response. It was important to be present. And I think one of the things that certainly as Democrats that our party is looking for is people who are going to be there in community, showing up and being leaders, not just in an office somewhere, but being amongst the people. And that was really important. And I can also say that the trauma of Operation Midway Blitz continues. It wasn't just while they were in full force here in the city of Chicago or surrounding areas and, you know, our sub suburban areas. And even downstate, this trauma is continuing. And Governor Pritzker and I launched what's called the Illinois Accountability Commission because this president is not always going to be president. And we're going to hold him accountable and we're collecting data and stories and narratives and photos and videos because we want to make sure that we're capturing what has happened and the harm that he has caused. And we're going to be ready to help to bring some real accountability. And by the way, that's what voters and the people of Illinois want. They want this president to be held accountable. What's the vehicle for that accountability? Is that potential criminal charges down the line? Well, yes. We want to see anything that will hold them accountable. And I've said very clearly, even as it relates to federal agents and what we're looking for when it comes to DHS and this funding question, I mean, I wouldn't vote to fund any agency that I want to see abolished, but we certainly need to make sure that federal agents are held accountable and should be, if they've committed crimes, there should be a full investigation and they should be prosecuted. And we should also make sure there's no total immunity for these individuals. People have been killed now and it's unacceptable. It's unacceptable and Democrats need to hold firm. There was obviously a lot of Super PAC activity in Illinois, both in your race and in the four key house races. One group that put a lot of money into the race against you was the crypto industry. I believe they put in several million dollars, especially right after you started a surge in the polls towards the end there. Talk to me a little about the role they played, your views on crypto and how you think we should deal with this sort of dark money, or not dark money, but this sort of special interest money in politics. Well, I need, I talk all the time about how I need to fight for campaign finance, finance reform, and we need to end Citizens United. I mean, I think I was, I don't want to quote exactly, but I believe I was the number one target of the crypto Super PAC industry, you know, the crypto industry Super PACs, the number one target, this election cycle, number one in the nation. And it, they came at me with attack ads in the amount of 10 million dollars plus. And I think about that. And, you know, I think it was really important that we made a statement that when you continue to be the kind of candidate that's going to speak in a way that's going to resonate with voters, when you're going to stand up and talk very, you know, clearly about your bold vision, we were successful. But we need to do more to level the playing field and allow good candidates to run for office. We saw all of this outside money pouring into these campaigns. And I think it's really important when I get there, I'm proud to be endorsed by in Citizens United, because I'm taking a stance of the kind of campaign finance reform that we need to see in this country. And it starts number one with ending Citizens United. What particularly was it about your record or policy positions that made the crypto industry come after you so directly? I don't think it was about policy positions in per se, it's certainly not about crypto per se. But I think it was, I made it very clear that I was here to stand up for everyday working people. That's what we should be focused on, how to make sure people can, you know, have a little more money in their pockets, how we can make sure that they can have access to healthcare, and how we're going to stand up to a president who is, to me, a wannabe dictator who does not have the best interest of the American people at heart. And they knew that I was someone that, you know, this industry has made Donald Trump rich. And they didn't want anybody who was going to stand up to him or fight back against him or hold him accountable. They want to just keep going with business as usual. And by the way, that's what I've heard from people that they are so fed up with in Washington. They don't want business as usual. They want to see somebody who's going to come in and really deliver for them. And, and I think that that's what they didn't want. They knew that as a candidate, I was not going to be someone who would go along with the status quo in Washington. The other interest group that played a huge role in this Tuesday's primaries, not in your race per se, but in the four house races was APAC. You know, they, they can't spend a lot of money through sort of shadowy groups to try to, you know, defeat some candidates like some other candidates. Although I recognize that they did not, I believe get super involved in your race. Just, but I know it was a huge topic of discussion in Illinois over the last couple of months here. Do you have any takeaways about the role APAC played in the relationship with APAC going forward for the Democratic Party? We now have candidates like Ruben Gallego and Gavin Newsom who say that they will not take APAC money going forward or if they were to run for president. Yeah. I mean, again, I think we need to get big money out of politics. And that's why, as I said before, we need to fight for campaign finance reform. We need to do something different. I mean, we saw millions of dollars flowing in from so many different sources here in Illinois. And, and it impacts, you know, can impact as we see, as we've seen the outcomes of these elections. And so that's something that again, you know, I want to make sure that people know who's funding these campaigns. That's important. And those are the kinds of things that I'm going to fight for when I get to Washington. Anything specific about anything about APAC specifically and how you think about them or? Well, look, I've always made my position clear about what I want to see in general in terms of, you know, working towards lasting peace and a two state solution. But I think more importantly, you know, when it comes to these elections, I know they, you know, I have not accepted any money from the PAC, but I know that in these elections, we saw a lot of activity here in Illinois. And again, the goal for me is to make sure that we can really level the playing field, allow people to get out there, campaign, make their messages heard, you know, raised from whomever they have to raise from. But the idea of what we've seen just sort of coming in with these different names, like the crypto industry in my race, for example, you'll see all of these terms. I don't even remember the exact name. Like the Fair Shake PAC or something, something like that, right? Fair Shake, even, you know, I think people might have, there was one that was like Illinois Progressive Something, you know, the crypto industry. And so it gives people paid for by the progressive whatever. And that's not, not what it was. A lot of these PACs were MAGA aligned PACs. And so that kind of thing does not, you know, it's really meant to sort of give voters, it's deceptive for voters. Let's just put it that way. Yep. Yep. Okay, you ran what I think may end up being the most memorable ad of this cycle. And I'm saying that in March of the cycle with, you know, about $3 billion of ads to come. You got a ton of attention. Some people have pointed that as a pivot point for in your race, when you sort of maybe started to take off. For those who don't know, the ad featured a number of Chicagoans saying, fuck Trump, and ended with Governor Pritzker, who had endorsed you, making the case for you. Talk to me about the decision to run that ad, what the reaction was, did you get some blowback from it? So I'm just very curious about this. It was a very interesting ad. Well, we knew we needed to, I mean, so much noise, you know, that in any election cycle, there's so much noise. And honestly, the amount of noise with the chaos that's coming out of Washington DC, people just felt like, what do I pay attention to? And so we, there needed to be a real way to break through the noise and capture what people were feeling. And when I would go around the state, I talked about previously that people were looking for a fighter they want, they were frustrated with Washington, really angry at feeling like, look at this president and what he's doing and who is standing up to fight and who's going to go toe to toe with him. And the ad just captured it so perfectly in 30 seconds to just say, this is what the American people are feeling. This is what Illinoisans are feeling and that they don't want to just have business as usual for somebody who's a wannabe dictator. Why are we acting like this is normal? It's not. And I think that, you know, I'm just really proud that the ad just broke through. And what I mostly heard was people saying things like, how come you didn't ask me to be in the ad? How come I couldn't be a part of that? And I just thought that's when I knew that it was just really a turning point, one of the ways that it was a turning point in the campaign. In the process of making the ad, did you at any point consider bleeping the fuck and the fuck Trump part? Well, it was bleeped for broadcast. For TV. Yeah. Yeah. I think that I'm not sure the bleep, you know, quite got all of it. Yeah, I support the non-bleeping decision, but many people have asked that. The non-bleeping group, you're like, there's a non-bleeping caucus, I think. And I think many people are a part of it. When the ad first came out, one of your supporters in Chicago, well, get supported versus an old friend of mine from the Obama days, texted me the ad to ask my thoughts about it. And my view was, I thought it was the right move for the reasons you just said, which was you were getting massively outspent. And just it's hard to get attention anyway. And so a very visible viral way of getting attention in Illinois. And it was a very Chicago ad, like it felt very... It was a great ad. It was a Chicago day in South Side. Yeah, no, I know, I know. That is authentic, I would say. Yeah. And I think that one way or the other, people were talking about it. Yeah, that's in the, no matter what. You need that politics in this day and age. And I'm happy it turned out the way it did. Yeah. Well, whether it's causation or correlation, you ran the ad, you won. We're very excited for you. We excited. I know you're not counting your chickens for their hatched. You still have a general election coming, but we're very excited to see you in the Senate, starting in 2027. Lieutenant Governor Stratton, thank you for joining us on Pod Save America. Thanks for having me, Dan. That's our show for today. Dan will be back in your feet on Sunday with a new episode of Pod Save America Center. Bye, everyone. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricket.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Cricket. Pod Save America is a Cricket media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farrah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Cherlan is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Senglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt DeGroote is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cone, Haley Jones, Ben Hefkoat, Mia Kelman, Carol Pelleve, David Tolles, and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. If you love Pod Save America and want more of my political analysis, you should subscribe to my newsletter, The Message Box. I'm Dan Pfeiffer, former senior advisor to Barack Obama, and in Message Box I break down what's actually happening in politics and what it's going to take to beat Donald Trump and Maga. If you follow every poll and every twist and turn in the campaign, Message Box is for you. This isn't just hot takes. 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