What a time to be a central bank

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And they are the ones who are going to determine what happens to interest rates in this country. What are they thinking? They may have to make the next move in interest rates be up instead of down due to the war in Iran. It's not just the energy price impact. It is more than an oil shock. It is whirling supply chains in ways that are similar, not the same, but similar to what we saw emerging from the pandemic. And interest rate cuts can't cure what ails the labor market, but they could make inflation worse. And in fact, we cannot get full employment or sustainable employment until we get rid of the tax that inflation is on all consumers. The feds worried about inflation, worried about supply chains. Why are markets so relentlessly positive right now? It's a bit of a puzzle. It seems a bit like what's listening by the graveyard, not quite a graveyard, perhaps just something less. But it is a bit surprising, but it also exacerbates inequalities. Diane Swank, chief economist at KPMG. Thank you so much. Thank you. The U.S. has reportedly expanded its blockade of Iranian ports to include ships that have been sanctioned by the U.S. regardless of whether they have stopped in Iran or not. It means these ships could be boarded, searched and seized anywhere in the world. A New York jury found that Ticketmaster and its parent company Live Nation did indeed run an illegal monopoly on live event markets. Live Nation has already set aside $280 million to settle with states that suit it. But it is appealing. The company's stock closed down 6% yesterday. It's back up 2% today. Calls to sue Ticketmaster and Live Nation picked up steam back in 2022 when Taylor Swift fans had to wait for hours online to buy tickets that sometimes exorbitantly marked up prices. Basic rule of economics. Never cross the Swifties. Nearly two-thirds of Americans, something like 154 million people under the age of 65, get their health insurance through their jobs. Health insurance costs are up sharply this year. And there's recent research showing that when employers have to spend more on health insurance, they spend less on raises. For more, let's turn to Marketplace's senior economics contributor, Chris Ferrell in St. Paul. Hi, Chris. How are you doing? American healthcare is already the most expensive in the world. What exactly is driving up health insurance costs even more right now? So there's several factors at work and just to list some of the most important, higher wages for healthcare workers, consolidation among hospitals and clinics, new medicines and prescription drugs, the demographics of an aging population, and an increase in mental health claims. We know that people buying their own health insurance are paying more, but just how much have cost gone up for health insurance people get through their jobs? Okay, so costs have climbed by close to 20% over the past five years. So let's put that in dollar terms. The average annual premium for employer-sponsored family health insurance was about $27,000 last year, and that's roughly equivalent to the wage of a full-time worker paid $15 an hour. So according to KFF, it's the Health Research Nonprofit, health insurance costs rose by some 6% last year and are projected to increase by another 11% per year. So both are well above the current rate of inflation. If employers are paying more for health insurance, is that money that we employees are not getting in the form of paychecks? Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York asked firms in their regional business survey whether wage-setting decisions were influenced by higher health insurance bills, and respondents reported an average increase in such costs of more than 13% in 2026. So that's in line with the national projections of 11%. Absent those cost increases, businesses say they would have raised wages by roughly an additional percentage point on average. So if businesses didn't have to spend so much on health care, they might have given us more money and wages. Can you put some numbers on that? Sure. So the average wage increase by the firms in the survey was 3.8%. And so they say the average wage hike would have been about 4.7% if health insurance costs had held steady. So that's the equivalent of a 20% drag on wage growth, say the Fed economists. Wow, 20% drag. So employers are paying more and our raises are smaller and slower than they would be because of the rising cost of health care. That's it. And there was a survey by KFF, it was published earlier in the year. And it notes that two-thirds of the public worry about paying for health care, including the cost of health insurance and out-of-pocket costs. But here's what really stood out to me. Concerns about the cost of health care ranked higher as a financial worry than other household expenses like utilities, food, rent, mortgage. So the combination, just as you said, this slowing wage growth and higher health insurance bills, it's contributing to this widespread sense that living costs are too high. Marketplace's Senior Economics contributor Chris Ferrell in St. Paul, thank you so much. Thanks a lot. In New York, I'm Sabri Beneshore with the Marketplace Morning Look For It. From 8 p.m. American Public Media. Jingle, jingle, jingle, jingle. Gather round children young and old for Million Basilions Holly Jolly Tax Day Season 10 Premier Spectacular, starring Bridget and Ryan. That's right, we're back with brand new podcast episodes just in time for tax season. And what good timing we have, right? Because Ryan needed a major lesson on getting his taxes done. I really did. I learned all about 1099s, W-2s, audits, though I probably could have skipped the deal with the strange, ominous man in the hooded cloak who said, If you choose this shadowy path, beware, you'll have to indulge in a creative interpretation of U.S. tax law. Yeah, I didn't like that last part. Anyway, tune in this week to learn all about what you should and shouldn't do for a smooth tax season. Listen to Million Basilion on your favorite podcast app.